Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 542 - 7/3/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
- 0:13Hello and welcome to episode 540.
- 0:17Two of the all. Systems Go sports betting
- 0:20podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
- 0:31What's going on, everyone? Happy Friday.
- 0:33Another day here in the arena, guys, but it's a special day,
- 0:36not only is it? Of course, TGI Friday, the work
- 0:39week is over. The weekend is upon us, but it's
- 0:41a very special weekend. That's right, 4th of July
- 0:45weekend, every 4th of. July guys, I feel.
- 0:47Like, I feel like one of the one of the kids in The Sandlot, you
- 0:50know, thinking about playing baseball with my friends, you
- 0:53know, going to a carnival, watching the fireworks.
- 0:55One of the best holidays all year long, so I want to wish
- 0:58everyone a fantastic 4th of July.
- 1:01Have a great time, stay cool out there again this.
- 1:04Is day day 2 of a three day heat wave for me in?
- 1:07In New England here on the outskirts of Boston another 100°
- 1:10day so I'm trying to stay cool out here but again we're.
- 1:13Going to hopefully see the the heat.
- 1:15Wave break tomorrow and then of course we're going to do our
- 1:18best to post a winning day here today in Major League Baseball.
- 1:21So again, hope everyone has a great 4th of July.
- 1:24Enjoy it, have fun. Be safe, don't be stupid.
- 1:28We don't need any. JP.
- 1:30You know, blown off fingers with fireworks and we don't need
- 1:32anyone drinking and driving. But I'm excited because we're
- 1:35going to our our local parade in our town tomorrow and then
- 1:39driving up to the in laws. My mother in laws in New
- 1:42Hampshire and she always puts on a great party.
- 1:44So I'll be grilling, chilling and thrilling.
- 1:46And what's what's fun about New Hampshire?
- 1:48It's definitely true because I didn't spend a ton of time in
- 1:51New Hampshire before my in laws moved from San Diego to New
- 1:55Hampshire. And I learned last year the
- 1:57first time that, you know, you don't have to go to the local
- 2:00baseball game. You don't have to drive to the
- 2:02fireworks in New Hampshire every.
- 2:04Buddy goes crazy with. Fireworks, I believe.
- 2:06It's the only state where fireworks.
- 2:07Are legal or one of the only ones?
- 2:09Maybe there's others out there. But we just sit.
- 2:12On and we did this last year. We're going to do it again
- 2:13tomorrow. You know, eight o'clock 9:00 you
- 2:16just sit on the the front porch with some nice Adirondack chairs
- 2:20with a nice drink in your hand. This will be my first 4th of
- 2:22July with my daughter. So very much looking forward to
- 2:26that big family moment for us. Her first 4th of July as a proud
- 2:30American three month old baby. And of course my beautiful wife
- 2:34will be next to me as well. So it'll be a lot of fun, but.
- 2:37The beauty is we can just literally sit.
- 2:39On my mother in And also, I'll be rooting, of
- 2:53course, for the hot dog eating contest.
- 2:54You guys are probably sick of me talking.
- 2:56About it, but great test case of tracking the market hopefully.
- 3:00Jumping on a good move because. I am holding the under 73 1/2
- 3:04hot dogs by Joey Chestnut. Remember we talked about about a
- 3:08week ago getting a good number there and we did get a good
- 3:11number. So we're halfway.
- 3:12Home we got the CLV because. I just looked today and the over
- 3:16under, Nathan's hot dog contest, over under for Joey Chestnut
- 3:20who's. Going to win, but.
- 3:21He's way too expensive to bet right now.
- 3:23It's down to 70 1/2 under -140 at Caesars, under 70 1/2 -, 165
- 3:30at DraftKings. So I can't really recommend
- 3:33playing the under 70 1/2 anymore because again, if this thing
- 3:36lands 717273, I'm. Happy and those of.
- 3:40You who got under 73 and half are happy, but again, if you're
- 3:44getting the worst number. One of the best things I ever
- 3:46learned from a from a mentor of mine in sports betting is.
- 3:50You know, don't chase Steam. Don't.
- 3:51Chase a bad number. If the number has moved, you
- 3:54know, it's one thing in like baseball or money line sport
- 3:57-120 you know, you bet it, I bet it -130 they win.
- 4:00We both cash. You just make a little more than
- 4:02me, but with a spread. Sport especially.
- 4:05An over under hot dog eating contest like, you know, I take,
- 4:08you know, patriots -2 1/2 you get a -, 3 1/2 they win by
- 4:12three, you lose, I win. So it's a little bit harder and
- 4:16definitely not very much value there if you're chasing a bad
- 4:19number. So at this point guys, I really
- 4:20can't recommend anything, but I please, all right, I hope, I
- 4:23guess I should say that you jumped on that under 73 1/2 or
- 4:27even under 70. Two and a.
- 4:29Half -115 before it fell. But again, good to see this line
- 4:33falling. And you know what I'll be doing
- 4:35after the local parade in our town?
- 4:38I will be rushing home hopefully.
- 4:40I think the parade starts at 9:00 AM.
- 4:42Hopefully I'll get home in time to to sweat the hot dog eating
- 4:45contest under. And again, shout out to those of
- 4:48you who are who are also holding a under ticket there.
- 4:52But with that being said, let's waste no more time guys.
- 4:54We got three MLB plays to talk about today.
- 4:56All three short favorites once again had some good odds boost
- 4:59opportunities. All three have sharp mush edges.
- 5:02We're going to try to go 2 and one, which is always the goal.
- 5:05And real quick looking back to our last night, that's what we
- 5:07did 2 and 1 + 0.32 units. But it might have been even more
- 5:11if you got some of those good odds boost because.
- 5:14You'd get a good. Day start off, I should say, a
- 5:17little annoying with the Marlins losing 14 to 4 against Colorado.
- 5:21The annoying part there is that they're up to nothing.
- 5:23In the first, they're up 3 to one.
- 5:25In the second, they're up four to three, I think in the 4th.
- 5:29And then it was a 5 to 4 game. They're down by 1 and it was
- 5:32maybe the worst. Inning I've ever seen.
- 5:34A team play. I think.
- 5:35They gave up like seven runs and like the 6th inning and got
- 5:38their doors blown off. So, Marlins, you stink.
- 5:41Losing 14 to 4. But a winning day because we got
- 5:43the. Rays, 5:00 to 2:00.
- 5:45Winners over KC laying a short number.
- 5:47Then that Dodger game again, talk about getting, you know,
- 5:51maybe a live line opportunity because the Dodgers got down 6
- 5:53to nothing early in the game in the second inning.
- 5:57I remember when they were down, I think it was what were they
- 6:00down? They're down to nothing or three
- 6:02nothing, and they're still like a -, 115 favorite to win the
- 6:04game. They.
- 6:05Had to be something. Good plus money when they're
- 6:07down 6. Nothing but their bats went off.
- 6:10And they won. 12:00 to 7:00 So great comeback there by the
- 6:13Dodgers. So with the Dodgers in the Rays
- 6:15winners loser, was the Marlins still a two and one 0.32 winning
- 6:19day? But again, you might.
- 6:21Have been closer to. A full unit if you got those.
- 6:23Good odds boost. With that being said.
- 6:25On 4th of July weekend. About to kick off here guys.
- 6:28Let's see if we can start off in style, see if we can get some
- 6:31winners here on the diamond. So.
- 6:33First bit on the board let's. Look at a 6:45 PM Eastern Time
- 6:36first pitch in the nation's capital, where the Washington
- 6:39Nationals are hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- 6:42Now let's set the stage. Talk splits, line move, system,
- 6:44matches. I'll give you my play for this
- 6:46one, so the pirates come in. 44 and 44.
- 6:49Dead 500. I'm on the Pirates over 78 1/2
- 6:52wins so just again stay around 500.
- 6:55But I hope they lose tonight because I'm on the Nats anyway.
- 6:58Pirates just split A4 game series against the Phillies.
- 7:01They won yesterday's series finale 6 to 1 as a + 110 road
- 7:04dog. Meanwhile, the Nats. 45 and 43
- 7:08they just took. Two of three against the Red
- 7:09Sox. They won the series finale 1:50
- 7:12as a + 125 road dog. So pitching match up here for
- 7:16tonight, we got the Pirates go with the ready Mitch Keller.
- 7:19He's six and five with a 4.87 ERA.
- 7:22Nats, meanwhile, going with the lefty Foster Griffin.
- 7:25He's 8 and 2 with. A 2.93 ERA.
- 7:28What do we see across the market this game?
- 7:30Open with the Nats listed around a -, 135 home favorite
- 7:34Pittsburgh around a + 115 Row dog and sharps have gotten down
- 7:38hot on the Nats here because we've seen the Nats get steamed
- 7:41up -135 now up to -155 S about a $0.20 steam move in favor of
- 7:48Washington tells us a lot of money has come in here on the
- 7:51Nats really like the splits on the nationals.
- 7:54At DK, they're getting 73% of money line bets, 88% of money
- 8:00line dollars. At circa, they're getting 93% of
- 8:03money line bets over 95% of money line dollars.
- 8:07So when I'm, you know, looking for possible plays, I start
- 8:10with, OK, is the line moving toward this team and do they
- 8:13have low bets, higher dollars of both DK and Circa?
- 8:15If they have those three things, that's a good starting off point
- 8:18that that could be a sharp play. And that's what we have so far
- 8:21with the Nats. Then we layer.
- 8:22In our system matches, if you're an above 500 home favorite off a
- 8:26win priced -155 or less, the Nationals would match here.
- 8:30Those teams are 80. 7 and 59 this year. 60% but a 5% ROI
- 8:35because you're not laying too much of heavy juice.
- 8:38Here's what I really like. Rest first.
- 8:39Tired advantage. The Nationals were off
- 8:42yesterday. The Pirates played yesterday in
- 8:44in. Philly, and not that Philly to
- 8:46DC, is a big. You know, you know, crazy cross
- 8:48country trip, but the fact that one team was off and one team
- 8:51played, we've seen the rested team do very well in the spot.
- 8:54If you're a rested home favorite coming off a day off and you're
- 8:57facing. A team who?
- 8:58Played the previous day, so think of a favorite versus
- 9:00back-to-back rested favors back-to-back again baseball play
- 9:05pretty much every day. But these little, you know, one
- 9:07team rested, the other team is tired that that could really
- 9:09help. And the stats prove it out
- 9:11because that system match rested home favorite off a day off
- 9:14versus team on a back-to-back. Those teams are 27 and 1073%
- 9:20this year, 24% ROI. If you're a rested home favorite
- 9:23coming off a day off and you missed the playoffs the previous
- 9:25year. So maybe you're wary.
- 9:27Yeah, they're not that good. But no, you actually want to
- 9:29play those teams. That system is 64 and 30. 68.
- 9:33Percent with a 13% ROI over the last.
- 9:36Two seasons. Then we get to these pitchers.
- 9:39This kid, Foster Griffin, I call him a kid.
- 9:41I think he's 30 years old. He was a first round pick.
- 9:43I did some research and he. Really didn't do much.
- 9:45With the Royals. And even went to.
- 9:47Japan and. Boise put it together this year
- 9:50because he has posted a. 1.15 ERA in five June starts only
- 9:55gave up. 4. Earned runs in 31.1 innings
- 9:58pitched. He's made 17 starts this year.
- 10:00Get a load of this guy's Washington 13 and four in those
- 10:04seventeen starts 7 and O with a 2.35.
- 10:07ERA in night games. That's a night game tonight, you
- 10:10know. Mitch Keller 5 June, starts 6.
- 10:13.23 ERA giving up 18 earned runs.
- 10:16In 26 innings pitch and in night games one and five. 6.46 ERA So
- 10:22good. Sharp splits toward the Nats
- 10:24line. Move toward the Nationals again,
- 10:26hopefully Foster Griffin greater than Mitch Keller, Rest first
- 10:30tired system matches. And oh by the way, popped open
- 10:33Juice Reel, noticed a 10% sharp mush edge in favor of the
- 10:37Nationals. So friends at Juice Reel sharp,
- 10:40wise guys and wise gals out there listening, also going
- 10:43gnats. And also noticed one rhythm
- 10:45recommendation also lighting up on the nationals.
- 10:48So first bed of the night, I got Nats -145 at FanDuel and I did
- 10:53get an odds boost here. So I got the FanDuel odds boost.
- 10:57I got them down to -112 but let's see if we can get a
- 11:01winner, hopefully to start the night with the Nationals next.
- 11:05But on the board, let's go. To an 815.
- 11:07PM First pitch in Houston, where the Astros are hosting the Tampa
- 11:11Bay Rays. Now the Rays come in. 51 and 30.
- 11:14Three just swept the Royals came through for us yesterday.
- 11:17Five to two in the series finale as a -. 125 road favorite.
- 11:21Meanwhile, the Stroh's. They are 43 and 40. 6 on the
- 11:25year just dropped two or three against the twins.
- 11:27They lost that series finale 8 to 3 as a -160 home favorite.
- 11:32So tonight's series opener, the Rays are going with the ready
- 11:35Nick Martinez. He's seven and two with a 2.66
- 11:38era. Stroh's meanwhile going with the
- 11:40fellow ready Spencer Araghetti. He's 4-7 and four with an ERA of
- 11:45four. Now, what do we see across the
- 11:47market? Well, not a ton of line movement
- 11:49here, but a little bit of line movement.
- 11:51And it's toward Tampa Bay because this game opened at
- 11:54basically a coin foot. It's, you know -110 both sides
- 11:58and again, not. A huge move.
- 12:00We have seen most books lean toward Tampa Bay because you're
- 12:02seeing most books -110 Tampa Bay.
- 12:05It's now around -115 Tampa Bay. We've never seen this go to 1 -,
- 12:09115 Houston. It's only lean toward the Tampa
- 12:12Bayside. Then we get over to Circa. 88%
- 12:15money line bets, 89% money line dollars on Tampa Bay, so heavy
- 12:20betting out in Vegas also in favor of the Rays.
- 12:23Then we get into some good system matches.
- 12:25If you are a Friday home, Friday night favorite, those teams are
- 12:30one. O2 and 50. 366 percent, 12% ROI
- 12:34this year. The Rays in particular, there's
- 12:37a system that we played with them multiple times against the
- 12:39Royals. They're good against bad teams.
- 12:42Knock on wood, when they play a team that has a below 500
- 12:45record, they're 29 and 1566% win rate, 15% ROI.
- 12:51That's the best in baseball against losing teams.
- 12:54You look at Martinez, he's made 16 starts this year.
- 12:57Tampa Bay is 12 and four, so they've played well behind him.
- 13:00He's also good on the road, 2 and one 2.18 ERA.
- 13:04He's also good at night, night games.
- 13:06He's five and one with a 2.44 ERA.
- 13:09You know you flip. It to Araghetti he.
- 13:11Started off really, really good, but he's tailed off quite a bit.
- 13:14In five June starts, he had an ERA of nine.
- 13:17Gave up 25 earned runs and 25 innings pitched at night. 5.19
- 13:22ERA versus during the day. Pretty good 2.2 O.
- 13:26Rays also at night. 31 and 18. Astros 25 and 30, so again, not
- 13:32a huge line move, but it's shown liability toward the Rays.
- 13:35Rays have. Cleaned up against bad teams.
- 13:38Martinez hopefully greater than Araghetti.
- 13:41Also popped open Juice reel, noticed a 17% sharp mush edge on
- 13:46Tampa and also noticed 2 rhythm recommendations also lighting up
- 13:51on Tampa. So second bed of the night for
- 13:53me. Guys, I got the raise -110 at
- 13:55Bet MGM. Definitely shop around because a
- 13:57lot of books up to -115 Last bed of the night. 9:40 PM Eastern
- 14:03Time. Let's go out West where the
- 14:05Athletics of Sacramento, always weird to say not Oakland or I
- 14:10guess not Vegas yet, but they are hosting the Miami Marlins
- 14:14now the Marlins come in. 46 and 42 just split.
- 14:17A4 game set against the Rockies. Don't remind me Lost yesterday's
- 14:20series finale. 14 to 4. As a -, 140 road favorite, just
- 14:24gross conversely. We've seen the A's 41 and. 46 on
- 14:29the year. They just dropped two or three
- 14:30against the Dodgers, but did avoid the sweep.
- 14:32They won that series finale 7 to 1 as a + 130 home dog.
- 14:37So in tonight's Inter League Series opener, the Marlins are
- 14:40sending out the ready Tyler Phillips.
- 14:42He's one and three with a three-point O2.
- 14:44ERA A's meanwhile, going at the fellow ready Jack Perkins.
- 14:48He's two and three with an ERA of 6.
- 14:50Now, what do we see across the market?
- 14:53Well, this game open A's around a short -125 home favorite,
- 14:57Miami around a plus one O 5 road dog and the public really
- 15:01doesn't know what to do. They're kind of. 5050.
- 15:03Down the middle, yeah, Miami's got the better record, but A's,
- 15:07you know, they're at home. So what do we do?
- 15:09Well, the public doesn't know what to.
- 15:10Do they're 5050? Basically ticket split at
- 15:13DraftKings. However, what do we always talk
- 15:15about? 5050.
- 15:17Line in a vacuum you would imagine if the tickets are
- 15:20split. You really shouldn't see any
- 15:21line movement. Maybe it goes a cent here sent
- 15:23there, but when you have a. 5050 ticket split and yet you see a
- 15:27big. Line move that's meaningful.
- 15:30It tells you that even though the.
- 15:30Public doesn't know what to do. Wise guys have taken a position
- 15:34and they've hit the team, taking in the line movement.
- 15:36So in this case. It's the A's.
- 15:39I got the A. 'S here guys, because even
- 15:41though it's 5050 at DraftKings, we've seen the A's get steamed
- 15:43up. -125 up to -135 I'm not seeing some shops inching up
- 15:48toward -140. So one way movement in favor of
- 15:52the A's. We look at some system matches,
- 15:55lighting on the A's. They got six overall systems on
- 15:58the A's below 500 home favorite facing an above 500 team.
- 16:02So kind of that fishy. Hey, why is the below 500 team
- 16:04favored? Well, you want to embrace that
- 16:06fishy play. A's would match here, and that
- 16:09system is 51 and 28 on the year, 65 percent, 10% ROI.
- 16:14If you're a Friday home favorite -150 or less and you missed the
- 16:17playoffs the previous year, those teams are 31 and 1469%
- 16:22with a 23% ROI. A's also have a rest first.
- 16:26Tired. Advantage A's were.
- 16:27Off yesterday, Marlins played in Colorado and now off to travel
- 16:31again, leaving that high elevation going to Sacramento.
- 16:36They would match those same systems that we had a second ago
- 16:38with Washington. Rested home favorite coming off
- 16:41a day off facing A-Team who played the previous day, 73
- 16:44percent 24% ROI this year. Rested home favorite coming off
- 16:48a day off who missed the playoffs the previous year. 68
- 16:51percent, 13% ROI. Phillips also, he's been.
- 16:55Really good at home one and O 1.16 ERA but this Miami starter
- 17:00on the road O and three 5.670 RA.
- 17:05So we have a good line. Move 5050 toward the A's.
- 17:07We got a rest first tired advantage.
- 17:09Also noticed a 6%, nothing crazy, but a 6% positive sharp
- 17:14mush edge on the A's at Juice Reel and also one rhythm
- 17:17recommendation lighting up on the A's.
- 17:20So final play of the night from you guys.
- 17:22Got the A's. -135 at FanDuel, but this is my other odds boost.
- 17:27What I've noticed is with FanDuel they'll give you an.
- 17:30Option like you can get one game.
- 17:32Or you can boost. It 50%.
- 17:33Or you can get two games boosted 30% and I usually take the two
- 17:37games 30% and I did use it on the A's.
- 17:39So I got them down -135 down to -1 O 5 S, the nationals, the
- 17:45Rays, the athletics. Let's see if we can scratch and
- 17:48claw. Try to get 2 out of three.
- 17:51And he got a winning night to finish off or kick off, I should
- 17:54say. 4th of July weekend. So that about does it for
- 17:57episode 5. 42 of the all. Systems go sports betting
- 18:01podcast powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
- 18:03where we wrap things up and I always start first by saying
- 18:06thank you. Thank you for listening thank
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- 18:13busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
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- 18:47Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting breakdown
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- 21:04Next you have a live odds page. Well, if you don't have one, you
- 21:07really do need. One, I'm not just.
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- 21:12It's the best one around. It's clean, it's sharp, it
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- 21:16It's got all the major sports books.
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- 21:46Those live in game. Wagering odds at odds logic to
- 21:49place an incredible plus money live weight in game wagering bet
- 21:54and you'll also be able to shop for the best line pull up the
- 21:57line history all that good stuff.
- 21:59So if you ever want to give it a shot, I have a special link for
- 22:01you to use. Just go to Odds.
- 22:03Logic.com/josh 123 that's going to give you a 7 day free trial
- 22:10and 50% off your first month of service.
- 22:12So that about does it for episode 542.
- 22:15Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast
- 22:18powered by rhythm This is the part of the pottery wrap things
- 22:20up and I leave you with two final thoughts guys one, whether
- 22:24I see you at the. Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 22:26River in Rhode Island The Brooklyn.
- 22:27New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
- 22:30at the encore in Boston plain Ridge park casino MGM
- 22:33Springfield or the Nash in my neck of the woods on the border
- 22:36of Massachusetts in New Hampshire.
- 22:38Out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
- 22:40Where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
- 22:42Where the lowest as possible is found at the South Point.
- 22:45Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
- 22:48swimming pool when you. Cash a big.
- 22:49Ticket at Circa, wherever it may be.
- 22:51You're going to walk up to me, show me a beautiful Tampa Bay
- 22:54Rays ticket and show me a fantastic come from behind down
- 22:5866, nothing and then roll Dodgers ticket.
- 23:01First one's on me, next one's on you.
- 23:03We'll have a hot dog, a hamburger, some potato salad,
- 23:06some watermelon, you know some what do you do for dessert?
- 23:09You know, some cake, some ice cream.
- 23:12We'll, we'll, we'll get after it and make some s'mores over the
- 23:14over the bonfire on 4th of July. So as always, guys coming off a
- 23:18two and one or one and two, A3 and O or O and three.
- 23:21A good night, a bad night, whether we're hot or cold or
- 23:24just grinding, we just got to stay the course.
- 23:26We can't get too high when things are going well.
- 23:28We can't get too low and down in the dumps when we're not
- 23:31catching as many plays as we want.
- 23:33Just got to stick to it, Continue to.
- 23:34Grind and again, have that consistent bankroll management.
- 23:38Play the system matches when they're there, layoff when
- 23:41there's red flags. It's it sounds easy, but I'm
- 23:43human too. Again, sometimes bias seeps in.
- 23:46We got to stick to the model as best we can, looking for games
- 23:49that are against the public, with the house, with the pros,
- 23:52flat bet, avoid parlays and get that.
- 23:54COV. If we can do that, we're going.
- 23:57To be successful sports bettors. So I hope everyone has a great
- 24:00Friday. Hope you have an even better 4th
- 24:02of July weekend. Again, no, no firework mishaps.
- 24:07Have a great time with friends and family.
- 24:09You know, put on some sunscreen if you're out there, stay cool.
- 24:12Have a nice cool. Beer on me and a couple hot
- 24:15dogs. And let's hope that Mister Joey
- 24:17Chestnut the GOAT has has 73 or less or for you guys out there,
- 24:21you know, 70 or less. But wish everyone has a great
- 24:244th of July. And we'll be right back at it on
- 24:26Monday. That'll be episode 543.
- 24:30Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast
- 24:33powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and happy
- 24:36Independence Day.