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SpaceX IPO Fever Takes Over Wall Street · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstraw, Chuck.
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  Speaker 2: Mike and Tucker with you here, and stocks continue to
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  Speaker 2: uh trade jumpily I guess is how we jump lah
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  Speaker 2: describe it. Yeah, they're trading jumpilye in a jumpy fashion,
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  Speaker 2: if you will. Uh. The S and P five hundred
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  Speaker 2: today has been anywhere between seventy two fifty seven and
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  Speaker 2: seventy three to twenty seven. It's about a one percent
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  Speaker 2: range that we've seen. We're currently sitting close to the
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  Speaker 2: low end of that, basically up three points right now
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  Speaker 2: at seventy two sixty nine. Dow is up point four
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: percent one hundred and ninety nine points, and nasdak can
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Posite up point oh two percent four points as well.
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  Speaker 2: So again, just not a lot of moment to in
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  Speaker 2: either direction. When we take a look at what's going
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  Speaker 2: on in other markets, ten year Treasury is down one
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  Speaker 2: point eight basis points to four point five two two percent,
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  Speaker 2: the Dollar Index is up point three one percent to
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  Speaker 2: one hundred point two four five, the price of Goal
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  Speaker 2: down another thirty eight dollars an ounce to four thoy
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  Speaker 2: ninety five, and crude oil West Texas Intermediate is down
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  Speaker 2: eight cents of barrel to eighty nine to ninety five
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  Speaker 2: triple A. National average for gas prices is down to
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: four twelve and nine tenths of a cent, so another
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  Speaker 2: two point two cents overnight. We are getting close to
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: where I think we'll bottom out if prices stay in
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  Speaker 2: this range, probably somewhere in that four to ten range,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: but we might have a little bit more room to
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  Speaker 2: go here, and that's obviously welcome as we continue to
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  Speaker 2: see gas prices sliding from that four to fifty five
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  Speaker 2: high that we hit so far in this cycle. Tomorrow
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  Speaker 2: is the big day, uh, Friday, and everyone's excited about it. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: But beyond it being Friday, it's also June twelfth, which
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  Speaker 2: is really exciting too.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: And one more, it also happens to be the day
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  Speaker 2: that we order lunch for the company. Here, come on,
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  Speaker 2: give it to me, and SpaceX is going to be okay,
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  Speaker 2: thank you, And look again, tell you you got to
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  Speaker 2: be kind of excited about this. I know that you
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  Speaker 2: know you can talk about well, the company, you know
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  Speaker 2: it's priced too crazily and like we've.
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  Speaker 3: We've had these conversations.
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  Speaker 2: But anytime that you have the largest IPO and history happening, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: you go get pumped.
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  Speaker 3: If you can't get a little excited for that then
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: listening to this show right, yeah, like you? Then we
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  Speaker 3: got to have a talk.
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  Speaker 4: Can we talk about what just weird things with this IPO?
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  Speaker 4: What makes it unique other than it being the largest
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  Speaker 4: in history?
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  Speaker 3: Yes?
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  Speaker 2: What?
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  Speaker 3: Uh So?
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  Speaker 4: One of those things is usually when you do an IPO,
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  Speaker 4: what you do is you go out there and you
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  Speaker 4: try and get a sense for how much interest there
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  Speaker 4: is in your IPO, and you use that interest how
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  Speaker 4: many you know, offers you have to participate in the
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  Speaker 4: IPO to help determine a price. They want the other
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  Speaker 4: direction on this one. First, they said, hey, we're setting
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  Speaker 4: a price. The price is X. It's going to value
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  Speaker 4: us at one hundred one point seventy five trillion dollars,
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  Speaker 4: and let us know if you would like to participate.
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  Speaker 4: And so what we've seen here is the price is
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  Speaker 4: what one hundred and thirty five dollars a share on
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  Speaker 4: the offering, Yes, and it's over subscribed by somewhere around
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  Speaker 4: four x yep. Normally, what that would mean is drive
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  Speaker 4: up the offering price, but we're not doing that here.
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  Speaker 4: It's a unique circumstance and that's what Elon Musk has decided.
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  Speaker 2: To do uh well, there were clear Let's be clear.
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  Speaker 2: If an IPO is not significantly oversubscribed, it don't get
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  Speaker 2: pold place yet. Okay, the minimum that you're looking for
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  Speaker 2: is generally like three x oversubscribed, ideally like seven to eight.
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  Speaker 2: So wh like, oh like the IPOs oversubscribed.
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  Speaker 3: Normal it should be. If it's not, it will get pulled.
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  Speaker 4: They are offering about five percent of their shares outstanding
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  Speaker 4: in this ipo.
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  Speaker 5: Very small portions float.
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  Speaker 4: When all is said and done, The types of shares
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  Speaker 4: that are being offered don't actually give you any control
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  Speaker 4: over the company. Not why most individual retail investors buy
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  Speaker 4: a company in the first place. But Elon Musk, in
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  Speaker 4: spite of having a much smaller ownership of SpaceX, will
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  Speaker 4: retain eighty percent voting power over SpaceX.
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  Speaker 5: So look, a lot of ways, this is a.
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  Speaker 4: Very unique circumstance for a company going public. But nonetheless,
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  Speaker 4: as you pointed out, the single largest IPO that we've
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  Speaker 4: ever seen.
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  Speaker 2: And I think that the cool thing about this, The
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  Speaker 2: thing that I do think is is really great about IPOs.
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  Speaker 2: All the people that have worked there for whether it's ten, fifteen,
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  Speaker 2: twenty years. The estimates that I've seen is that you're
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  Speaker 2: gonna have like four thousand people that are now millionaires
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  Speaker 2: that have not been before.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, pretty cool.
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  Speaker 4: You know we've all heard those stories occasionally of the
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  Speaker 4: you know, the secretary cafeteria workers a millionaire overnight.
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  Speaker 5: But yeah, it's great.
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  Speaker 3: To see that stuff.
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  Speaker 2: The question still exists in terms of, hey, what's gonna
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  Speaker 2: happen like after at IPOs, like how will a trade
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  Speaker 2: we'll be able to support that valuation.
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  Speaker 3: I gotta be honest, like, let's save.
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  Speaker 2: Those for you know, not tomorrow. You know tomorrow you
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  Speaker 2: can just say, hey, it's it's cool to see this.
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  Speaker 2: And again, the price long term will be what the
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  Speaker 2: price is going to be. But obviously a ton of
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  Speaker 2: hype around this and the other thing that I will
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  Speaker 2: say that's been kind of funny to watch. And again
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  Speaker 2: there are probably some people that played this exactly right,
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  Speaker 2: like knowing that idiots would do this. You guys remember
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  Speaker 2: Virgin Galactic, Richard Branson's space company that basically hasn't done
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  Speaker 2: anything in several years. I think they had some kind
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  Speaker 2: of like launch failure something of years back in the
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  Speaker 2: stocks down like ninety seven percent or whatever like it
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  Speaker 2: hasn't done well. Yeah, starting about ten days ago, the stock,
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  Speaker 2: which was trading at about two dollars a share, trades under
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  Speaker 2: the ticker SPC. I don't know if a bunch of
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  Speaker 2: people thought they were buying SpaceX.
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  Speaker 5: No, probably this happens all the time.
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  Speaker 3: Either way.
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  Speaker 2: The stock went from two forty one up to eight
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  Speaker 2: ninety and now is back at five sixty two. So
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  Speaker 2: there's someone out there who probably was like, Hey, a
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  Speaker 2: bunch of idiots are going to try to pile into
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  Speaker 2: this thinking at SpaceX, and someone probably like has just
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  Speaker 2: been sitting there for the last month or so and
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  Speaker 2: you know, maybe exited at the right time. But I
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  Speaker 2: bet there are other people that are still in it
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  Speaker 2: now that think they are in SpaceX when really they
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  Speaker 2: are in Virgin Galactic.
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  Speaker 3: Because you occasionally see.
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  Speaker 2: Stuff like this yep, so that one, uh everywhere. That
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  Speaker 2: one caught my eye a little bit. Uh. Another thing
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  Speaker 2: that I will say again when we talk about IPOs,
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  Speaker 2: the thing that is not unique to SpaceX, and we've
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  Speaker 2: talked about this, most IPOs, at some point in their
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  Speaker 2: first year go through a massive draw down. It doesn't
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  Speaker 2: mean they close the year down, but when you look
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  Speaker 2: at you know, the laundry list of big IPOs, Facebook, Twitter, Ali, Baba, Shopify, Block, Twilio, Snap,
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  Speaker 2: Octamongo dB, Dropbox, Spotify, lift Zoom, Pinterest, Uber, CrowdStrike, cloud Flare,
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  Speaker 2: Data Dog, Snowflake, Paleteer, DoorDash, Airbnb, a Firm, Roadblocks, coinbas Robinhood, Rivian, Armholdings,
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  Speaker 2: Core Weave. Again, this is like big ones. Over a
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  Speaker 2: fifteen year period, that group has averaged a fifty five
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  Speaker 2: percent draw down at some point in year one.
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  Speaker 4: Now, meaning fifty five percent draw down means that the
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  Speaker 4: average company at some points during their first year trading
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  Speaker 4: lost fifty five percent more than half of their value.
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  Speaker 5: Yes, from some previous points during trading.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, the minimum draw down for any company, any of
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  Speaker 2: those companies during their first year trading was twenty percent.
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  Speaker 3: Can you guess who the twenty percent was? Yeah, it
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  Speaker 3: was Octa.
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  Speaker 2: I think they're like an internet database company, remember you
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  Speaker 2: mentioned them. So again, this doesn't mean that they finished
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  Speaker 2: the year down. The average one year return was up
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  Speaker 2: fourteen percent. But the word of caution is IPOs even
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  Speaker 2: if they do well, even if you're like arm Holdings,
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  Speaker 2: which rose one hundred and thirty two percent in its
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  Speaker 2: first year. It went through a forty three percent drawed
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  Speaker 2: out in the middle of that, and you need to
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  Speaker 2: understand that that is a feature.
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  Speaker 3: Of IPOs, not a bug.
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  Speaker 2: It is the you're you're not buying, You're not buying,
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  Speaker 2: you know something like the you know Aten No. I
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  Speaker 2: keep thinking of like AT and T and Verizon, and
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  Speaker 2: I'm like, but they lose fifty percent in a year too.
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  Speaker 2: Sometimes they haven't been well managed, So that's not a
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  Speaker 2: good comparison.
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  Speaker 3: You're not buying like a CD.
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  Speaker 2: These are gonna move in both directions, and you gotta
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  Speaker 2: be willing to stomach that if you want to be
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  Speaker 2: part of it. Let's take a quick break. When we return,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: we've got trivia and then we're talking.
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  Speaker 3: Piece in the Wall Street Journal, Meta's subscription push exposes
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: its weak hand in AI. Let's laid out in here.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: That this is a company who has only ever made
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: money based on selling ads, and they're trying to pivot
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: because they've got this tool that is not terribly conducive
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: to well, you know, I'm not sure I'm willing to
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: say that it's not conducive to selling ads. They've clearly
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: seen ad tick up and more eyeballs on their content,
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: which has led to better ad sales. But they're trying
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: to figure out new ways to monetize AI and all
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: the spending that they want to do, and I'm just
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: unclear that they're going to have any success in getting
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: me to pay a monthly subscription to have access to
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: their artificial intelligence AI creation tools.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: Well, that's not even what this really is.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the subscription they're talking about is like the Instagram
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: what do they call it? Tucker Instagram cool or like,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: I have no idea. It's a four three ninety nine
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: a month Instagram subscription. And look here, I'm gonna sound
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: really skeptical, but that's because I despise social media and
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: I don't even have an Instagram.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: Instagram Plus I'm seeing is it okay?
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: Original?
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: Real original? Guys?
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Like great job mark quote for about four dollars a month.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Users of Instagram get some personalization features, more information about
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: who's watching their videos, and a super heart animated reaction
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: they can use on Instagram stories.
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: Super Hot super Dupa Hart. So look, it's clear it's
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: not for me.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's gonna be taken up by
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: half a percent of Instagram users or thirty percent.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: I just I don't know. This makes a lot more
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: sense in Europe than it does in the US. Right
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: when you take a.
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: Look at sell a crappy product.
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well only because if you're Facebook and you're looking
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: at your business.
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: I haven't looked at this.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: In a while, but you remember, like I do, that
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: their revenue per user in Europe is far lower than
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: it is here in the United States because they actually
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: respect people's privacy.
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: So it's tougher to sell ads there.
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: And so if you're looking at your business, you might say, hey,
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: all right, let's go sell this crappy product in Europe
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: because that base isn't worth that much to us anyway.
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: Maybe they're less likely to pay anyway, So maybe maybe
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: it doesn't work. But I don't I'm with you, it's.
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: Not for me either. I don't know.
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: You know, who is going to subscribe to this. I
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: suppose some people do. Yeah, I'm assuming. Well, I actually
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: don't know, Like, does this give you a product that
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: is also less focused on advertising?
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: Because it doesn't. That wasn't.
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: One of the features that it mentions here is that
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: it's going to sell fewer ads to you.
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: Maybe somebody is willing to pay for it, it's not me.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: Met has never been able to sell anything but ads.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: They've had all kinds of devices they've tried to roll out. Yeah,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: none of them have stuck. They've had the Metaverse, which
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: obviously didn't stick either. They've pretty much can't. They haven't
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: canceled it, but they're getting.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Close to it because no one wants it. I'm just
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: not sure.
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: The only group that I can think of that would
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: be willing to pay for access to these platforms are
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: the big content creators.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: And the estimates that we have are that there are
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: like eleven million of them in the US, and so
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: that works out to like five hundred million dollars in
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: revenue a year, which is a drop in the bucket.
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: Well, but the further problem there is what are you
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: going to do start charging the people who are the
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: only reason other people are on your platform. Yes, right,
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: you know, if I only go to Facebook because I
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: like watching silly videos of cats, Yeah, and all of
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: a sudden those cat videos disappear because Facebook starts charging
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: the creators, then I'm not sure that you're leaving the
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: product any better than it was before.
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: I'm suspect that they can do anything other than sell ads.
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: But they are damn good at selling ads.
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: Right, Here's the thing.
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: I just don't think that that puts them in a
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: great position to develop the latest and greatest artificial intelligence,
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: and that's what they're racing to do, rather than just
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: waiting for the model that they can utilize.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they've got a great ad business, and like it's
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: one that's been growing for the last several years. Yeah,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: the issue is that they keep trying to do all
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: these other things. There's just no evidence that they're any
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: good at you know, it's when's the last time Facebook
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: did anything interesting. I'm not saying that they're like a
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: bad business, I'm not, But when's the last time that
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: they did something and you looked at and you're like, oh.
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: I hadn't thought of that, What a great idea? Mark.
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: It was when they bought Instagram, which was what fifteen
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: I think it was, like twenty eleven was when they
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: bought it, right, Yeah, there has not been much that
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: they've put together of late other than getting better and
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: better at selling targeted ads.
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: And they are admittedly better than almost anybody at that.
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: Yes, it's it's them in good. Yeah, they're the only
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: games in town. So, like, hats off to you for that.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: You know, you said they're not a bad company. They
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: might be an evil company, but they are very well.
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: They're very good at what they do and at their
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: you know, bread and butter. But I'm with you that
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: they haven't made successful hardware. They haven't made successful gaming
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: or universes. And now they've poured a lot of money
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: into artificial intelligence and I'm just not sure what point.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: And the other thing that I will the only way
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: they've gotten to where they are is by buying the
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: competition multiple times. Sure, they bought Instagram, and they bought WhatsApp,
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: and okay, like, now, who's going to compete with you
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: when you get three point five billion users? Like the
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: network is what provides them that stability and that that platform.
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: I don't know it's uh, I saw a tough putt.
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: Did you see an ad for a new Facebook movie.
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: Yeah, Social Reckoning.
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, I like that.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: Maybe we'll see yeah yeah yeah.
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: They got rid of Jesse Eisenberg and placed him with
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: Jeremy Strong.
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: Which the casting's fine. The piece that's interesting to me
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: is the first one, The Social Network, which came out
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: back in twenty ten.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: David Fincher, who batally.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Unbiased and thinking that he's one of the best directors
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: out there, directed it. This one's it's Sorkin directing. Like again,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: you look at Aaron Sorkin's you know, and he's directed,
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: you know, a few movies here and there, but none
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: of them have done anything interesting.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: You know. He's a writer and he's a really good right.
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: All I can remember is like that Sorkin did recently
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: was The Newsroom, which was a series on HBO that
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: was pretty good. A lot of dialogue in that one. Well,
• 19:17
  Speaker 6: even that didn't direct, he was the writer, he wrote it.
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: He was an ep on that didn't direct it. Hewed
• 19:24
  Speaker 6: his directing career Molly's Game in twenty seventeen, trialed to
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: Chicago seven and twenty twenty and something called being the
• 19:31
  Speaker 6: Ricardo's in twenty twenty one. That's it Quick break, we
• 19:35
  Speaker 6: got Trivia Answer and Wall Street Watch.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Radio Network. Till now full Wall Street Watch treking the stocks,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the data, and the headlines driving markets so far today
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:58
  Speaker 6: Another bumpy day for markets. Prices are in focus after
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: President Trump threatened to again strike I Ran tonight. Investors
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: also reacting to a hotter than expected producer Price Index,
• 20:09
  Speaker 6: where wholesale prices climb one point one percent in May.
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: Right now, the Dow is up over half a percent,
• 20:16
  Speaker 6: SMP five hundred up about a quarter percent, NASDAC up
• 20:19
  Speaker 6: over a third of a percent, RUSS two thousand is
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: now up over one and about one and a half percent.
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: Ten Your Treasure Reel down two basis points at four
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: point five to two percent, and oil up about a
• 20:31
  Speaker 6: third of a percent, trating at ninety dollars a barrel.
• 20:34
  Speaker 6: Oracle falling twelve percent after it posted a larger than
• 20:37
  Speaker 6: expected spending related to its data center buildout. Oracle also
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: said it plans to raise an additional twenty billion dollars
• 20:45
  Speaker 6: in equity to pay for its AI build out. Meanwhile,
• 20:49
  Speaker 6: after sinking twenty eight percent yesterday, Super microcomputer shares are
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: edging higher today. Yesterday's plunge came after the company said
• 20:57
  Speaker 6: it would raise seven billion dollars in a series of
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: pity offerings to help satisfy growing demand for its AI components.
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: Sticking with tech, where Intel shares are up by over
• 21:07
  Speaker 6: four percent after the chip maker was double upgraded to
• 21:11
  Speaker 6: buy from underperformed by Bank of America citing increasing demand
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: for central processing units. And after today's close, we'll see
• 21:20
  Speaker 6: quarterly earnings from Adobe and Lennard. I'm Tucker Silva and
• 21:25
  Speaker 6: that is Wall Street Watch. And in the previous segment,
• 21:29
  Speaker 6: we asked you the trivia question, what is the highest
• 21:31
  Speaker 6: finish the US men's team achieved at the World Cup?
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: That will be third. The US finished third.
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: At the very first World Cup back in nineteen thirty.
• 21:43
  Speaker 6: So winner today with Shawn and Brighton Mass taking home
• 21:46
  Speaker 6: that Financial Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Sewan and
• 21:50
  Speaker 6: we play trivia every day here on the Financial Exchange.
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: Was fun.
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: Remember that one in nineteen thirty.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: It was a good one. Yeah, yeah, you.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Know, came in second the Gemmans, Argentina and in first
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: place the home country that hosted the first World Coach, Canada,
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: Uruguay very close. The Italians then rattled off two in
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: a row before Uruguay won the fourth one, and then
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: finally it was broken up by the West Germans winning
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: in fifty four, and then the Brazilians took over and
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: kind of ran the sport for the next couple decades.
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: We don't have anything else going on.
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: You can just list the World Cup winners for the
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: next forty five minutes of the show.
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: I will literally pull the plug if you do that.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: What if are you We're going to break? No silence
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: would be better than that.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: Okay, it's fine. It was just an idea, but we're
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: not going to do it.
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: It wouldn't feel that much time.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: There's only been like twenty four of them, I think,
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: so it's not a long list.
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: Test Tucker's patience.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Go ahead, take that vacation. You may be spending too
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: little in retirement. That is the title of the piece
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: in Baron's Today, and I find the conversation about too
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: little or too much to be the too little conversations
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: bothersome to me, to be honest, goh, the too much one.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: I understand, Hey, you're spending too much. You're gonna run
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: out of money before you die. Problem, bad thing. Hey
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: you're spending too little. You could spend more. Well, I
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: don't need to, So why are you gonna make me?
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: And I don't know if this is just a you know,
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: cheap yankee thing. But you know, when I do have
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: those conversations, it's not as though I run into a
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: lot of people who spending additional money would actually make
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: them happy.
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: No.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: So, but so I'm with you. That part bothers me.
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: I do think they point out one accurate piece that
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: a lot of people don't account for and they're spending
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: though in retirement, which is this idea of the retirement
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: spending smile. So we like to describe shapes to every
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: chart that we put together in the United States. But
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: what they're talking about with retirements. So you shaped retirement
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: in terms of your budget. And here's why when you
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: are early retirement, it's go, go go. You want to
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: take those trips that you haven't had time to do.
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: You want to spend on this, that or the other.
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: You might have new grandkids or kids getting married, so
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: you might spend some money on that tends to be
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: pretty expensive. By the time you're eighty, you've slowed down.
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: If you had two homes, if you took an annual vacation,
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: you might not do it quite as frequently. Your kids
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: are married, they've already had their kids. There isn't that
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: big demand on your budget. Again, these are all averages, sure,
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: and then it plateaus at some point and then starts
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: increasing again because yeah, you hit your late eighties and
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: you know what, you can no longer mow the lawn,
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: you can't go to the grocery store on your own,
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: and you need to hire some help for your health
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: situation if you live long enough. And so oftentimes we
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: don't account for that smile shape of the spending, and
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: so from that perspective we can overestimate and therefore be
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: too conservative in our projections. That said, I've never met
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: anybody who's made it to eighty nine years old and
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: been like, oh man, I wish I had nothing left
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: in the bank.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: Now it's not happened to me personally.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: Maybe somebody has gotten there, but I will admit for
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: a moment here that plenty of people fail to take
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: that into account and do underestimate how much they can
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: reasonably afford in their retirement, or what they end up
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: doing is presumed that they must work till sixty seven
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: to make their financial scenario work. And that's the one
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: that kind of bothers me more than all the rest
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: of them. Is what if you could have retired three
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: years ago and you broke your back for three extra
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: years when you really didn't need to.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the one that's more bothersome than well, you
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: didn't spend enough this year?
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: I was happy? Why do I need to spend more?
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: If you are facing down a retirement in the next decade,
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: you probably have a lot of questions. We have put
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: together a series of events coming up here this summer
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: designed to address two of the most common questions that
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: the advisors at Armstrong Advisory get about their pending retirement.
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: It's Social Security and Medicare, And we've got a seminar
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: on June twenty fifth down in Quincy. It's free to attend,
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: and it's going to attempt to answer any and all
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: of your questions about the complexities of these two programs
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: that for a lot of people make up a large
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: portion of their retirement decisions. If you are facing those
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: decisions in the next few years, if you're already there
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: and need to sell elect your Social Security benefit, or
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: are curious about how it works because you're divorced or
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: lost a loved one, or are worried about those things,
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: go to Armstrong Advisory dot com Slash events. You can
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: register for free again. It's June twenty fifth is the
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: next one. It's in Quincy at the Marriott. It's at
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: five pm and it's free to attend Armstrong Advisory dot
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: com Slash Events or eight hundred three nine three four
• 27:25
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• 27:26
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: The World Cup is kicking off today with two matches,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: and in order to handle the logistics of everything, you've
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: got five thousand vehicles that are going to be coordinating
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: shuttling all of the team equipment between the different stadiums
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: throughout Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: So which team is gonna end up having to wear
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: the backup jerseys because the vehicle got lost or stranded
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: or like, you know, Scotland's gonna show up with Mexico's
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: jerseys or something.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: You know, they're usually they usually have backups. They they've
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: got they've got plans so that that doesn't happen. But
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: it is kind of wild because here's here's the complicating
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: factor in all of this is just the sheer geographic
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: distance that this stuff has to travel.
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: Just team's doing shirts and skins.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Now, the last World Cup, I all right, the last
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: World Cup was in Katar. Yeah, like the entire like
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: country of Katar is like I don't know exactly how
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: big it is, but my guess is probably somewhere along
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: the side of like one of the New England states,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: you know, like you look at the other ones before that. Okay,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: like twenty eighteen was held in Russia. Yeah, but it's
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: besides of Connecticut.
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: There you go.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: Russia, Yes, big country, but you're not traveling to Siberia
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: for the thing. You know, like all of the stadiums
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: were right in the western part of the country. So look,
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: they'll they'll figure out how to do all of this
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: stuff because they have, you know, billions of dollars at
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: stake and they're going to make sure it works. If
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: you could figure out the logistics in Brazil back in
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: twenty fourteen, you can figure this out. You know, it's
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: like you literally then one of the stadiums in Brazil
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: back then was in smack dab in the middle of
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: the Amazon. If you can get the teams in uniforms there,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: you can get them from Boston to Los Angeles without
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: any problems.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: Where is Iran staying The Iranian team standing there during
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: all this is like Trinidad or something like that.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: I have it somewhere. I have the list of where
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: everyone is staying. The the fun ones that have been
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: really cool to watch are like Spain was in Chattanooga,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: I think it is. And so it's just like again,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: you got just a bunch of like Spanish people just
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: like going through like Tennessee, like wow, look at like
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: the barbecue here.
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: This is wild like I had.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Again, it's if you're not following, this is I think
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: the one redeeming you know, piece of social media is
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: you get to see the cool stuff like this, where again,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: there's a guy in the Boston suburbs that woke up
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: this morning and a bunch of Scots had taken over
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: the house across.
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: The street and we're playing bagpipes.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: U there is a guy from let me see which
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: one where this guy's from, just cause again, like you
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: find all these and you're like, oh, like these are fantastic.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: This is a guy from Scotland as well, who literally
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: the caption on his video is just Scottish guy in
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: America for the World Cup and I just discovered the
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: mac and cheese here is way better by a very
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: large margin.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: You know, Like this, this is the stuff that's just great.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: It's it's a bunch of people from Europe, Asia, South America,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: from everywhere just coming and being like, oh, this is
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: pretty cool here, Like I didn't know that you guys
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: had this, and I think that's pretty fun and pretty great.
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: So I'm I'm excited personally, but that's just me. Let's
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: take a quick.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: Break when we come back, We'll do a little bit
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: of stack roulette and then read off all the World
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: Cup winners.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: After that, the Financial Exchange is now available every day
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: from eleven to noon non Serious XMS Business Radio Channel
• 31:28
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• 31:32
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• 31:36
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• 31:39
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• 31:45
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• 31:51
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• 31:55
  Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: Mike, what do you got for stack roulette?
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the backdoor references that employers are
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: using more and more to vet employees.
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: So what has always happened for years?
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: As you go look to hire somebody, and if you
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: happen to know anybody in common, you might go ask
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: that person, Hey, what do you think of this employee?
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: But you don't make it public. You don't tell that
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: person that you'ressed about them. These days, people are employers
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: in particular, are whining and complaining and struggling to figure
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: out who is actually a good candidate in the In
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: the days of AI job interviews, AI resume building and
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: all sorts of you know, very easy ways that employees
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: or prospective employees can get around knowledge testing and all
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: sorts of different features. What I I dislike about this
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: is that it's leading more people to you know, go
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: behind their backs and go ask employees. What I do
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: like about it is that it is another indication to
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: me that the emergence of artificial intelligence is seeming more
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: and more like it's causing everybody to trust what they
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: hear on the internet less and less, and that might
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: result in a really difficult period of time where you know,
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: we have to learn how little you can trust.
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: What you see on the internet.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: But more and more I think it's forcing people to
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: actually have human conversations and do interviews in person, spend
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: a little bit more time on actually talking to human beings,
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: because yeah, you're right, you cannot necessarily trust what you
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: read on somebody's resume or how successfully they complete an
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: online test for their knowledge.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: I've said this before, but it's going to be wild
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: when the proliferation of AI triggers.
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: Us to use the Internet way less than we used to.
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I can see now a path where it goes
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: that direction. But again, stories like this are not exactly
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: good ones like Okay, So the employer's basically just you know,
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: utilizing their network to hire people, which means that you're
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: not going to hire anyone from a different economic background.
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: You're only going to hire people that are like you.
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: I don't love that. But on the other hand, it
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: is showing once again that yeah, you cannot trust stuff
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: that you see on the internet, and hopefully we get
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: closer to that.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Tucker, is there, uh, is there anyone that you've seen
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: recently that.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: Is a little unusual? What do you mean, Chuck, Well,
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: the weather outside seems like it's getting a little warm
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: for this type of time. Yeah, it does seem a
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: little hot.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: And I'm just wondering if if you've spotted anyone maybe
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: off the Pacific coast.
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: Oh oh you know what? Yeah? Yeah I did? Oh
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: you did? Yeah? Who'd you spot? I am a.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Mean tropical storms must bow before Anino.
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: El Nino is Spanish for.
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: That's right, ladies and gentlemen.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: El Nino is back, and apparently, according to meteorologists, it
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: looks like we might get the rare super El Nino,
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: which I don't know how you can have.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: Again, it's El Nino.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: Plus we can't we just call it like the adult
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: instead of like the child, like you know, couldn't we
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: go that direction? But in any case, there is apparently
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: according to the US Climate Prediction Center, there's a sixty
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: three percent chance that we could have the super El
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Nino heading into twenty twenty seven. That might be one
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: of the most powerful El Nino's heading back to nineteen fifty.
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: Okay, So, as funny as Chris Farley was in that sketch,
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: this is actually a potentially mass problem because already farmers
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: across the globe are struggling to get their planting season
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: in with limited fertilizer resources. Sudan and other parts of
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: Africa are in famine now, and.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: El Nina makes Africa much drier, same with India, Australia,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: Southeast Asia, and Brazil. It adds additional rain to the
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: southern part of the United States, and.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: The reporting coming out of some parts of Africa already
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: have been pretty tragic in.
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: Terms of food security recently, and especially a they're.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Dealing with fuel shortages as well as they've been one
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: of the basically relief valves for not having enough oil
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: production worldwide.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so this very much has the potential to get
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: very very serious for some of the poorest parts of
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: the world in twenty twenty seven. We were fortunate in
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty six that in terms of global food supply
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: we went into the conflict in Iran in a far
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: better place than we did the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: that could be diminished.
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: Greatly by a very bad Omeno season.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, something to something to watch, you know, as we
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: see how things develop here. Taking a look at markets
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: as we head towards the top of the hour, still
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: you know, some modest gains that we're seeing. Dow was
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: up about two hundred and fifty points, s and P's
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: up fifteen, Nasdacs up eighty nine, So anywhere from about
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: a quarter to a half percent gains across your major
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: US indices today, and everyone again kind of is waiting
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: for the SpaceX IPO tomorrow and so obviously look tomorrow show,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: we're gonna be covering that quite a bit. Uh, you know,
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: before we go, I guess a couple of data points
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: out this morning that we didn't touch on. PPI Producer
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: Price Index came in hot again, now running at a
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: six and a half percent twelve month price gain for.
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: The PPI core PPI up four.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: Point nine percent for the last year, so continuing to
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: see some signs on that side. Jobbles claims still pretty low,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: up a little bit. There's been some residual seasonality this
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: time of year for the last few years, probably the
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: case here. Up to two hundred and twenty nine thousand.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: Nothing to write home about, but just something worth monitoring.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take a break for the rest of the day.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: We're back tomorrow and we'll finish up the week with
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: the SpaceX IPO.
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: Then