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How to save a shrinking stock market · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The information provided in this program is of a general
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: nature and is not intended to be personalized financial advice.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: We encourage you to seek appropriate advice from a qualified
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: professional to suit your individual circumstances. Our savings pool is growing,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: but our stock market is shrinking. Why the head of
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: one of the country's biggest wealth firms is worried we're
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: becoming more like Suver than Singapore.
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  Speaker 2: Well, at the moment we don't have access to the
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: size of opportunity. We need to deploy it into New Zealand,
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: so we are deploying it overseas because it is also
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: achieving diversification for our investors and accessing product and returns
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: which you don't get here.
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  Speaker 1: So is that suggesting that the government then could look
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: or should look to selling off some of their stakes
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: in the GM tailors in the likes of Air New
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Zealand or councils in their port oartnership.
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  Speaker 2: Those organizations will do what's appropriate for their balance sheets
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: if they do that. That is an example of how
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: you would get more liquidity into a mark.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: You might create some enemies from this chat you prepared
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: for that. NJ. Good to see you. Thanks much for
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: having us in welcome back medicine, good see and it
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: is always good to be back.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Why do you think we should have this conversation now?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Why do you feel it's important for you to talk
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: about it.
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  Speaker 2: There is a lot of stuff which is going on,
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  Speaker 2: and there's a lot of positive actions which are being
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  Speaker 2: taken by the industry and market participants as a whole.
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  Speaker 2: And I think there are at times when you step
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  Speaker 2: back and acknowledge some of those things which are taking
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: place and actually commend some of the people who are
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: really leaning into trying to solve the problem.
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  Speaker 3: What is the problem? Can you size it up for us?
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  Speaker 3: Why is our capital market shrinking? Well? Capital markets.
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  Speaker 2: People often think of the listed markets in New Zealand
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  Speaker 2: that's the nzidex, but there's also private markets. And with
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  Speaker 2: the savings rates growing in New Zealand, which is a
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  Speaker 2: positive thing, we need to be able to deploy the
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: money both here domestically and overseas. We've got great returns overseas,
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  Speaker 2: we're getting okay returns here in New Zealand. As our
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: savings industry grows, we need our capital markets to grow
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  Speaker 2: as well. One of the problems we have at the
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  Speaker 2: moment is we need to be an attractive place to list.
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  Speaker 2: We need to have a liquid market as the second piece,
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  Speaker 2: and we need to have a market which instills confidence
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  Speaker 2: for people to put long term capital to work in
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  Speaker 2: the private setting because they don't have the liquidity. So
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  Speaker 2: those are the three core buckets are the problem we've
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  Speaker 2: got focusing on the savings pool. First, how much has
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  Speaker 2: that grown?
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  Speaker 1: What are you seeing at first cape and how much
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  Speaker 1: is that continuing to grow?
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  Speaker 2: And why we're seeing savings growth coming from two main
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  Speaker 2: areas at the moment. One is the key we saver
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  Speaker 2: the mandated and flows that system's working. The other area
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  Speaker 2: we're seeing the market growing is from market returns. Those
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: market returns again coming from New Zealand and off shore.
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  Speaker 2: The off market in particular the US has been performing
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  Speaker 2: incredibly well this year in the region of twenty percent
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  Speaker 2: growth here to day, which is more than we're seeing
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  Speaker 2: here domestically.
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  Speaker 1: So first, Kate looks after how many billions of dollars
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  Speaker 1: we're about fifty one billion at the moment, So directly
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  Speaker 1: and indirectly looking after the savings of about eight hundred
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  Speaker 1: thousand New Zealanders, where.
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  Speaker 3: Are you allocating that? Then?
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  Speaker 1: What's the percentage split between those offshore opportunities where returns
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  Speaker 1: are right now larger.
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  Speaker 3: It varies for each.
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  Speaker 2: Of the individual pools of savings you have. Depends on
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  Speaker 2: how much you'll allocate overseas. But given the size of
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  Speaker 2: the New Zealand market, as an industry, we need to
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  Speaker 2: allocate more of our savings pool overseas than we do
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  Speaker 2: here domestically.
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  Speaker 1: Is that like fifty one to forty nine or is
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  Speaker 1: it more like seventy thirty eighty twenty.
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  Speaker 2: It's over fifty percent of the industry would be overseas.
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  Speaker 1: But that is your obligation, right You have to chase
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  Speaker 1: better returns for investors, and you just feel those opportunities
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  Speaker 1: are not here.
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  Speaker 2: You have to chase returns, but you have to chase
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  Speaker 2: them safely, and the safety comes with diversification.
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  Speaker 3: The New Zealand market is quite a concentrated market.
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  Speaker 2: The companies on the exchange are quite concentrated, and you
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  Speaker 2: get some of that diversification of exposure to different industries
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  Speaker 2: by being in other geographies.
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  Speaker 1: So as that pool that you look after grows and
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  Speaker 1: you have to chase bigger returns for those clients. Does
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  Speaker 1: the threshold for a size company or size investment you
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  Speaker 1: put that money into get bigger as well.
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  Speaker 2: That goes to the problem we were talking about around liquidity.
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  Speaker 2: That's the amount of stock which is available for buying
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  Speaker 2: and selling in a market on any given day. As
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  Speaker 2: the pools of money you put to work out bigger,
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  Speaker 2: if you decide not to be in a stock, you
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  Speaker 2: need to move more and more of your money out
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  Speaker 2: of it, So you need to have depth of liquidity
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  Speaker 2: in stocks as as you get bigger. Given the size
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  Speaker 2: of the saving pool in New Zealand, the number of
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  Speaker 2: companies which are meeting that threshold is actually becoming smaller
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  Speaker 2: because they're not keeping up with the rate of growth
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  Speaker 2: in the savings industry. That's not a bad thing, that's
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  Speaker 2: just a natural evolution for the market. But there's probably
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  Speaker 2: within the industry across This is not just a first
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  Speaker 2: Cape statement, but probably across the industry. The top fifteen
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  Speaker 2: companies in New Zealand probably meet the long term liquidity
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  Speaker 2: requirements for long term deployment for a growing savings industry.
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  Speaker 2: Those stocks will also need to keep up with the
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  Speaker 2: liquidity requirements of the industry, so it'll be an interesting
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  Speaker 2: challenge for the market to keep up with the growth
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  Speaker 2: of the savings industry.
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  Speaker 1: So there's only fifteen one to five companies in this
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  Speaker 1: country on our stock market that actually meet the threshold
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  Speaker 1: of investible for our savings pill right now.
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  Speaker 2: There's a few more, but that tends to be the number,
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  Speaker 2: give or take a few which companies tend to put
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  Speaker 2: their follow allocations into.
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  Speaker 1: And if you consider takeovers that we've seen over the
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  Speaker 1: past few years, I mean, the number of large cap
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  Speaker 1: companies in this country is are only shrinking other than takeovers.
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  Speaker 1: What do you think the problem is? Is it that
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  Speaker 1: these companies can't grow therefore they're not becoming more attractive
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  Speaker 1: or are they just not releasing their liquidity onto.
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  Speaker 3: The market like they should be.
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  Speaker 2: In relation to we're talking about public equities at the moment.
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  Speaker 2: In relation to the two challenges around the public equity markets,
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  Speaker 2: one is we need to be an attractive place to list,
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  Speaker 2: and so we need to make sure that we're not
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  Speaker 2: a place which is unattractive to list, and ensuring that
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  Speaker 2: the balance with regulation enlisting rules is right.
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  Speaker 3: Mark Peterson's doing some amazing.
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  Speaker 2: Work there with Minster Bailey around getting the settings right
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  Speaker 2: and with the regulators to make sure that we aren't disadvantage.
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  Speaker 2: So that's the first step getting more companies wanting to
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  Speaker 2: raise or access capital in the markets. It's the first step.
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  Speaker 2: The second part is the one of straight out liquidity.
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  Speaker 2: There are large holdings within New Zealand companies which aren't
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  Speaker 2: tuned that often and people continually. For example, they're held
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  Speaker 2: by councils or government and as they go through their
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  Speaker 2: thinking around how they want to have their balance sheets,
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  Speaker 2: you may see further liquidity coming from those pockets.
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  Speaker 3: But that's not within our gift.
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  Speaker 1: So is that suggesting that the government then could look
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  Speaker 1: or should look to selling off some of their stakes
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  Speaker 1: in the gentailors in the likes of Air New Zealand
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  Speaker 1: or councils and their port ownership.
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  Speaker 2: Those organizations will do what's appropriate for their balance sheets
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  Speaker 2: if they do that, that is an example of how
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  Speaker 2: you would get more liquidity into a market.
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  Speaker 1: And companies like yours would be interested in investing in
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  Speaker 1: those of those opportunities.
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  Speaker 2: Came about again depending on the underlying performance of those
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  Speaker 2: companies and how they fit into the portfolios.
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  Speaker 1: But more liquidity being released into the system you think
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  Speaker 1: would ultimately be a good thing for our capital market
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  Speaker 1: should be what about small caps business mid to small
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  Speaker 1: cap companies, the ones other than the fifteen that you're
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  Speaker 1: actually investing in.
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  Speaker 3: Why are they struggling?
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  Speaker 1: Why are they not able to grow to meet that
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  Speaker 1: investability threshold?
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  Speaker 3: What needs to happen there.
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  Speaker 2: There's also a competing force in the mid cap space
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  Speaker 2: called private capital. So private capital is also now playing
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  Speaker 2: a bigger role in New Zealand than it has historically.
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  Speaker 2: So you list on the exchange to raise or access capital,
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  Speaker 2: some of that need is no longer there as private
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  Speaker 2: capital is able to fulfill that need, So you're seeing
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  Speaker 2: a lot more of that occurring in that smaller mid
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  Speaker 2: cap space.
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  Speaker 3: Is that easier to access for companies as well?
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  Speaker 1: Is that now becoming a popular route because it is
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  Speaker 1: better and easier rather than listed.
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  Speaker 2: There are pros and cons of listing versus accessing private capital.
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  Speaker 2: If you list, one of the big advantages as you
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  Speaker 2: do have liquidity for the shareholders. They can choose not
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  Speaker 2: to be invested with you, and they can and they
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  Speaker 2: can sell their shares. That is an enormous bonus. In
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  Speaker 2: the private capital space, you have less liquidity, You are
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  Speaker 2: locked up with that partner, and if you don't like that, partner,
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  Speaker 2: or it doesn't work out, you're kind of stuck with them.
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  Speaker 2: So there's definitely pros and cons. One of the perceived
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  Speaker 2: pros of private capital is that the cost of accessing
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  Speaker 2: it is lower than what is what it is to
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  Speaker 2: be listing on in Exchange, which goes to the point
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  Speaker 2: about why we need to make sure it's an attractive
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  Speaker 2: place to list and not having the barriers to listing
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  Speaker 2: being too high.
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  Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about how we do that. What functions
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  Speaker 1: need to be changed. Do they need to perhaps be
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  Speaker 1: concessions for smaller mid cap companies to list on the
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  Speaker 1: exchange that aren't the large ones, Perhaps they shouldn't fall
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  Speaker 1: under climate disclosure, or perhaps they shouldn't need all continuous disclosure.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, those the things that we should be considering.
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  Speaker 2: And those are exactly the points which Mark is working
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  Speaker 2: on with industry support to try and courage the regulatory
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  Speaker 2: settings to be appropriate for the size of the companies
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  Speaker 2: which are listening. And he's getting some great traction, and
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  Speaker 2: so I do feel very positive about the direction of
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  Speaker 2: travel with that.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think that something like that would need to
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  Speaker 1: happen or was that kind of like, do we need
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  Speaker 1: to be function changes for this to make a difference.
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  Speaker 2: I do think we need changes, and I do think
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  Speaker 2: we are going to see changes because of the way
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  Speaker 2: in which both regulators and government are positively engaging with
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  Speaker 2: both the market and the enzdics on these matters.
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  Speaker 1: Is there a risk that we'd then swim too far
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  Speaker 1: the other way and become an unregulated market, which we
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  Speaker 1: know I wouldn't be good for investors either.
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  Speaker 3: So how do we find that balance?
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  Speaker 2: Regulations essential for any market? It provides protection for investors,
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  Speaker 2: it provides certainty, provides clarity, it creates the field of play.
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  Speaker 2: It's like jan rugby and you need a referee and rugby,
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  Speaker 2: but if you over referee again, you take some of
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  Speaker 2: the performance out of it.
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  Speaker 3: So it's about getting the right balance.
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  Speaker 2: The part I'm excited about at the moment is that
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  Speaker 2: there's an acknowledgment of this by the regulator and an
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: engagement from the regulator on how they can regulate it
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  Speaker 2: in a way which works for the players on the field.
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  Speaker 2: So I do think you're absolutely right we need regulation.
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  Speaker 2: Just making sure we've got the right balance with the
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: referee is key.
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  Speaker 3: But if there is too much refereeing, as you call it.
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  Speaker 1: If there's too many rules, then that's the whole point
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  Speaker 1: of the capital market effectively being unproductive and underperforming, and
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  Speaker 1: then investors chase returns elsewhere typically things that are too
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  Speaker 1: good to be true.
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  Speaker 3: Is that happening now, I think there's a lesser risk
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  Speaker 3: of that.
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  Speaker 2: I think what happens is what we're seeing at the
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  Speaker 2: moment is if you over referee, people just don't want
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  Speaker 2: to play the game, and so they'll go and play
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  Speaker 2: in a different market because that's easier for them and
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: it's more fun.
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  Speaker 3: But there are still some companies out there.
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  Speaker 1: For example, I just got back from Wellington where I
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: filmed it Rasine Paints incredible New Zealand business. The CFO
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  Speaker 1: said to me, oh, we never list. There's just no way.
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  Speaker 1: They don't want to be war by private equity. They
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: don't want to IPO. There's many other big companies out there,
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  Speaker 1: as you well know, that have considered listing and then gone,
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  Speaker 1: oh maybe not. Like we're told that Trade Mayor has
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: been teasing going back to the market for a couple
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: of years and we're still yet to see the right
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: investors a yet to get any inclue of when that
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: might actually happen. So even if there are these changes
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  Speaker 1: at the edges, like, would that even be enough for
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: these incredible companies filter In Hogan another example in this country,
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  Speaker 1: So there's actually even consider listing on our market and
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: being subject to public disclosure rules.
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  Speaker 2: It's you've got to have a why for wanting to
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: access capital. Brazin may not need to access capital. Fil
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: from Hogan may not need to access capital, so there
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: may be no need for them to contemplate listing. Some
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: people don't like the disclosure requirements because it's New Zealand's
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: a very private country, and so having your financial affairs
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: disclosed publicly if you're a large meaningful holder or a
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: family owned business which then gets listed, that that sometimes
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: carries a disproportionate waiting for some reasons for not listing.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: So I think every company situation is different. I think
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  Speaker 2: when you want to bring it back to what do
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  Speaker 2: we need to change if you make it an attractive
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  Speaker 2: place to list and take off the table a regulatory
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: burden or a financial cost of listing. If we can
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: address those, you're not going to solve people's desire for privacy.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: There does need to be a public disclosure if you
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: are a publicly listed company. Those are some of the
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: prices you pay for being having access to that sort
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: of capital. So I don't think it's necessarily about it
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  Speaker 2: fitting or being a solution for everybody. But for those
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  Speaker 2: for whom it is a solution, we need to make
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  Speaker 2: it an attractive one.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: As part of this, also just changing the story around it.
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  Speaker 1: Like you and I are so passionate about this time.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: We talk about this often, but do we need to
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: just flip the script and make people excited about listing,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: about celebrating the inside X.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: It's an interesting topic to get excited about. Yeah, you
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: and I weird, but we're in these group.
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  Speaker 2: Look, I do think listing is only one component of
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: the capital markets. I do think the other component of
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: the capital markets, which is likely to have a more
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: immediate benefit, is how we think about investment into long
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: term infrastructure projects. Because capital markets, the companies, and the
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: evolution and growth of those needed to substantially change is
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: a bit like the growing tree. You need to start,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: and we're starting, and so those changes will evolve over time.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: If we're looking for more immediate hits into our capital market,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: that's probably going to come from private capital and private
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: capital into infrastructure. The exciting thing is we're now at
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: least talking about it, Like I do think one of
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: the challenges we have we need infrastructure as a country.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: I do think it's exciting that we're actually now talking
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: about it as opposed to just talking about housing. That
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: conversation is happening, which is great. I do think that's great,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: and I do think although a lot of people might
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: not find it exciting, they will win. The roads get
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: start getting built and the bridges start getting built. But
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: for that to happen, people need long term certainty over
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: what the plan for New Zealand infrastructure. That requires cross
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: party agreement. And the exciting part there is that that
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: is at least now the direction of travel. The government
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: recognizes that you need to have bipartisan cross parties support
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: for a long term infrastructure project because long term infrastructure
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: projects take ten fifteen years and with a three year
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: government cycle, nobody's going to want to come and put
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: capital to work in a government project if it's an
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: uncertain outcome in three years time.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: This is the interesting thing though, because all of this,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: whether it's infrastructure or listed companies or private equity, all
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: of it is in competition for capital. Do we actually
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: have enough capital to go to all of these things
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: and to help them all grow and be successful.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: I do think we have access to enough capital, because
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: we shouldn't be constraining our views on capital being the
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: domestically sourced capital. Yes, we have that, and I want
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: to deploy more capital into the New Zealand market, but
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: we will have access to international capital, which is far
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: great in volume than we can ever produce locally. But
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: that international capital needs a certainty of the environment to
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: invest into, and so that's why I'm excited about the
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: cross party plan for infrastructure.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: What do you see in terms of interest from offshore capital?
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Is your phone ringing cold, like a people calling you saying, MJ,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: what infrastructure project or private equity business?
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: Can I throw some money in?
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: The phone is ringing very hot from overseas people wanting
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: out capital.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: Ah.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: So that is one of the things about being at
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: the size and scale we are now, is the phone
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: rings hot from other private equity firms overseas wanting us
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: to be investing into their funds so they can then
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: deploy it wherever they are in the world, sometimes including
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: New Zealand.
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  Speaker 3: What are you telling them if it's not New Zealand. No,
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: we're keeping our money.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Here or well, at the moment, we don't have access
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: to the size of opportunity we need to deploy it
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: into New Zealand. So we are deploying it overseas because
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: it is also achieving diversification for our investors and accessing
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: product and returns which you don't get here.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: So while you're putting money and those opportunities, you're having
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: this conversation because you actually want to put more of
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: that money here.
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: You just don't see those opportunities right now. Dounterligned, thanks
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: so much your timing and Jack, this was a good chat.
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: Thank you.