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Episode 104 - 8/23/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode one O 4 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday. The work week is winding down.
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The weekend is upon us and we have a lot to get to on our last
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pod of the week because as we always talk about on Fridays,
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you guys know what that means Biting UFCI got a UF CBEST bet
0:49
for tomorrow night and it's a very interesting bout here
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between a fighter who has a huge youth advantage in a great
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reverse line move and we're going to look to fade a trendy
0:59
dog here. So it's a big bout.
1:01
Maybe I'm giving a hint away here or there, but I do have a
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sweat here for in UFC if you want to join me and again, we're
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looking to extend our winning streak to 11 straight so knock
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on wood, but it's not just UFC. I got a 5 pack of sweats for you
1:13
today guys, including pretty much everything.
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I got three Major League Baseball bets for you, one dog
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and a couple short favorites as well as a WNBA dog to favorite
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move, which looks super fishy and too good to be true, which
1:26
is why I'm going to follow the sharp line move.
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And then I got an NFL preseason bet for you, another dog to fave
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line move, an information based bet, and we're going to look to
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target this team on the first half money line.
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SO5 pack here, including UFC for tomorrow.
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Now looking back toward yesterday, guys, one and 2 -,
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1.1 units. Really the disappointing part
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was our Major League Baseball bets, the Rays and the Padres
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both didn't do anything on offense and both lost for us,
1:54
which was a little bit disappointing.
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But I loved cashing another NFL data-driven information based
2:02
bet with a little bit of luck on her side.
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So I'm talking about the Colts, baby.
2:05
Remember we talked about Indianapolis and a great spot
2:08
yesterday in terms of a super big line move.
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Remember the Colts open that game -1 1/2 got up to -6 1/2
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even close -7 and we said, hey, let's lay the points of 6 1/2 at
2:19
a great bet. Split only half the tickets, but
2:20
almost 80% of money and we're looking pretty good the whole
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game. The Colts were up twenty to
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seven late into the fourth quarter and then out of nowhere
2:29
there was a 21 yard touchdown pass from Logan Woodside to
2:33
Jermaine Burton to back door. The Bengals make it 20 to 20 to
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14 and I'm like, here we go. Now I'm going to lose my minus 6
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1/2 by the hook. And then stroke of luck, the
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gambling God smiled upon us with about a minute and a half left.
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Dimitrik Felton 40 yard touchdown run and the beauty of
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that not only did it cover the number and the Colts won 27 to
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14, but I almost laughed out loud.
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I pretty much did laugh out loud because Al Michaels, the great
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legendary announcer, he always knows what the spread is.
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This guy must be, you know, bigger into gambling than than
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he lets on. And the beauty of legalized
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betting now with, you know, nearly 40 states legalizes that,
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hey, kind of the stuff used to, you know, hint at you can pretty
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much come out and say now it's pretty much legal everywhere.
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But I love seeing it because when Felton scored that
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touchdown to cover the 6 1/2 for us, Al Michaels said quote,
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covered a lot of ground with that touchdown.
3:26
Covered a lot of ground with that touchdown.
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Al Michaels putting in a gambling reference.
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So even though baseball let us down a great hit there with the
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Colts covering the 6 1/2 with a little bit of luck on her side,
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which never hurts. So looking to turn the page here
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to a big Friday and a big weekend upon us.
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I'm looking forward to breaking down some sharp bets of the guys
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and hopefully end our week on a positive note.
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So I want to start off with, well, I would call a revenge day
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in Major League Baseball because Major League Baseball was a
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little bit a little bit rough to us yesterday.
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But that's all right. You've had a good year.
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So as always, it's a long season, a lot of games each day.
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Just got to turn the page here and hopefully post a winning
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night for tonight. So looking for the Major League
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Baseball slate, 3 bets here. Let's dive right in.
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Let's try to get two out of three now first.
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But on the board here, Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red
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Sox. So this one's interesting for a
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few reasons. Let's start off with setting the
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table here. This is a 7:10 PM Eastern Time
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first pitch at Fenway Park. The D backs come in 72 and 56
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just swept the Marlins. They won the Wednesday finale
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7:50 as a -, 165 road favorite. Meanwhile, the Sox 67 and 59.
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I was impressed. They took two out of three
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against the Astros in Houston. They won that finale on
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Wednesday, 4:00 to 1:00 as a + 115 road dog.
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So pitch a match up here. For tonight, we have the snakes
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going with Ryan Nelson. He's eight and six with a 4.35
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ERA. He'll be opposed by Red Sox
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rating Brian Baio, who's 11 and five with a 4.8 O ERA.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, this line pretty much hasn't moved at all, which tells
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me something because the Boston Red Sox are the public play
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tonight. They're getting nearly 2/3 of
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bets. However, Red Sox open -130
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they've pretty much stayed -130 and some shops even have hinted
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at a bit of a drop down to -125 S Reading between the lines
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tells me we got some liability on Arizona here.
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Guys, I'm going to take a shot on the snakes getting plus
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money. Arizona opened around plus 1/15.
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They pretty much stayed plus 115 even though nearly 2/3 of bets
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on the Red Sox. So again, this is what I call a
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line freeze. You have heavy betting one side,
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but the line won't move at all. Like if the Red Sox are getting
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nearly 2/3 of bets they open, you know, hey -130 shouldn't
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they be up to -140 no, they've stayed where they're at or even
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dipped a little bit. So again, liability here is
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telling me we got an opportunity to back the snakes and the plus
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money. Now, Arizona has a pretty good
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bet split. Only about 1/3 of bets, but 55%
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of money. So good low bets, higher
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dollars, sharp contrarian bet split.
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Also correlative betting, dog high total told this one is 9
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1/2 or even 10 at some shops. So more expected run scored,
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more variants, more upset opportunities.
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Weirdly enough, the Red Sox haven't been great at Fenway 29
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and 32, and the Snakes have been good on the road, 35 and 30.
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And digging into these pictures a bit, Brian Baio, he's got a
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good record. He's actually pitched better in
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the month of August. But on the road, 4.39 ERA, not
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bad at home, 5.28. So he hasn't really pitched well
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at home. Meanwhile, Nelson has been the
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opposite. He's got a 3.86 ERA on the road
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versus 4.95 at home. So this just jumped out to me as
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Red Sox at home, you know, you know, late August, summer night,
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take the socks at Fenway. Yet Publix on the Sox line
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really hasn't moved. We have some indicators here to
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take the Arizona and the points or the points here.
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I am thinking about football, the plus money, I should say.
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So I'm going to take the snakes here, guys.
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Let's see if we can get a dog to bark or a snake to bite.
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How about that? I'm on Arizona at plus 115 now.
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Couple favorites for you, Saint Louis Cardinals and the
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Minnesota Twinkies 8:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch
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Cardinals 63 and 64 just took two of three against the Brew
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Crew won yesterday's series finale 3 nothing as plus 110
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home dogs. Meanwhile, the Twinkies 71 and
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56 just dropped to a three against the Padres but avoided
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the sweep with a big eleven to four win yesterday, which was a
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big win there for them. I think they're like plus 105 +
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110 on the money line. Now for the interleague series
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opener tonight, the Cards are going to go with the ready Andre
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Palante. He's five and six with a four
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point O 7 ERA. The Twins are going to go with
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fellow ready David Festa, who's two and two with a 4.96 ERA.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, kind of just a blueprint Steam move in favor of the
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Twins. I'm going twins here, guys.
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The twins opened around -135 now they're up to -145 some shops
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even hinting closer to -150 so pretty much one sided movement
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in favor of the twins. Now the Twins are getting 79% of
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money line bets, but 93% of money line dollars.
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So good low bets, higher dollars bet split public support, but
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also heavy smart money with that bigger share of dollars as well
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as that steam move in their favor.
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And then a lot of system matches.
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Home interleague favorites who made the playoffs the previous
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year. One O 4 and 6163% this season
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with a 4% ROI. Minnesota, by the way, 57 and
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3264% with an 8% ROI as a favorite.
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That's the third best chalk team in baseball Twins, by the way,
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39 and 1770% with a 14% ROI when they're favored against a sub
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500 team. So that really tells me they
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clean up on, you know, kind of bad to mediocre teams, which
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going up against the Cardinals who are game below 500 here that
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would qualify. Now Minnesota also has a rest
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first tired advantage. Twins were off yesterday.
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Cardinals played the Brewers. Now they have to travel.
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So I'll take that. Then also Minnesota, their bats.
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I'm going to hope that their offense comes to life tonight.
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They're hitting 254 on the year, 156 homers, 624 runs scored.
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Saint Louis is hitting 246 on the year, only 133 homers, 523
8:56
runs scored. Also, home Rd. splits hopefully
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favor Minnesota here. They're 36 and 24 at home.
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Cardinals 29 and 34 on the road. And Festa has been really good
9:07
in August. He has a two point O3 ERA.
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He's only given up three runs and 13.1 innings pitched.
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Meanwhile, St. Louis, just one and five in
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Palante's last six starts. So add it all up, guys.
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Kind of a blueprint play for US. $0.10 team move, good bet split,
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bunch of good system matches, home Rd. splits, good angles
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here for the starting pitchers in our favor.
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I'm going to go Minnesota, so let's go.
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Twinkies at -145 keep on cruising.
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Last one for us tonight in baseball.
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And then we got a lot more to get to WNBANFL preseason and
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then of course, fighting. But this one here Philadelphia,
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the Phillies visiting the Kansas City Royals another 8:10 PM
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Eastern Time. First pitch Phillies come in 74
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and 53, but they did just drop two or three against the Braves.
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They lost three to two yesterday as a plus one O 5 row dog.
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Meanwhile, the Royals 71 and 56, having a Goodyear just took two
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or three against the Halos. They won Wednesday's series
10:00
finale. 3 nothing as a -, 185 home favorite.
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So interleague series opener tonight pitching matchup.
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We have the Phillies going with Taiwan Walker.
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He's three and four with a 5.69 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the Royals are going to go with fellow ready Michael
10:14
Waka, 10 and six, 3.33 ERA. So what we've seen across the
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board here, well, if you like Minnesota, I think you like
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Kansas City. Very similar line move, very
10:23
similar number here. We open this game with Kansas
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City listed around a -, 130 -, 135 home favorite.
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Now they're up to around -140 some shops hired a -, 145.
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So just like Minnesota steam in favor of Kansas City at home
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laying a modest chalk price. Really good bet split here.
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One thing I really like about this game is that the public is
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pretty much split. They really don't know where to
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go in this one. Only 54% of bets are on Kansas
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City, but the Royals are taking into account 74% of dollars.
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So really good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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And again, 54% line really shouldn't move at all yet it is
10:59
moving toward Kansas City tells me the tells me the Royals are
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the sharp bet here tonight. The Royals are 42 and 2167% with
11:07
a 13% ROI as a favorite. The second best chalk team in
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baseball. Kansas City also has a rest
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first tired advantage. Just like Minnesota, Kansas City
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was off yesterday. Philly played in Atlanta and now
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has to travel and then also digging into these pitchers.
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Hopefully a big advantage for Kansas City because Taiwan
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Walker has a 6.23 ERA in two August starts and the Phills are
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O and seven in his last seven starts.
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Waka, meanwhile, has a 1.89 ERA in three August starts.
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Royals are eight and one in his last nine starts.
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Also last 10 games, Phillies five and five only hitting 259
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though, with a 4.14 ERA. Kansas City seven and three,
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hitting three O 3 with a 3.7 ERA.
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So again, just like Minnesota Kansas City home team good
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steam, good bet split here. Bunch of good system matches.
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Advantages on the bump. I'm going to go Kansas City,
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shop around. I got Kansas City at -140 Now
12:02
over to the WNBA because there's one game here in the association
12:07
that caught my eye and it is just one of those fishy make
12:10
makes no sense type bets. And I'm going to look at a game
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here. Late night, 9:30 PM tip off the
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Las Vegas Aces against the Minnesota Lynx.
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Now going into this one, it's kind of interesting because the
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Minnesota Lynx are really good. They're 20 and 8.
12:25
Las Vegas is 17 and 10. However, the links open this
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game as a very short one, 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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Now it's flipped to aces -2 1/2 even some books going to -3 So
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right off the bat, dog to fave line move in favor of Vegas.
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They open getting a point point and a half.
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Now they're laying 2 1/2 or three.
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Look at the bet split here. Not only do you have this great
12:47
dog to fave line move in favor of the Aces, but the bet split
12:49
is incredible. They're only getting 52% of
12:52
spread bets, but 83% of spread dollars.
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A very, you know, low bets, higher dollars.
12:58
Great discrepancy here, basically saying the public
13:00
split, but all the big money is going on the Aces.
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It's the ultimate buy low, sell high because the Las Vegas Aces
13:07
have lost three of their last four.
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Remember, they're the team that won it last year and they've
13:11
been one of the favorites all year to win it this year.
13:13
Minnesota, meanwhile, is 4 and all their last four Minnesota's
13:16
at home. And to add, you know, a little
13:19
intriguing angle here, these teams are playing a home and
13:21
home. They just played in Vegas, and
13:23
the Lynx beat the Aces in Vegas, 98 to 87.
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So think of it this way. From the Lynx perspective, this
13:30
seems too good to be true. The Lynx have the better record.
13:33
They just beat the Aces. They're at home and they have a
13:36
better recent performance and yet they're getting 2 1/2 or
13:39
three points. Why is the line going to the
13:41
Aces if Minnesota has all those advantages?
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Better record at home, better recent performance, and they
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just beat the Aces again? That makes no sense to me, which
13:50
as if you bet long enough the games that don't make sense, you
13:53
learn to embrace the side. That's fishy.
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So this seems super fishy in favor of the Aces.
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I'll bank on their offense hopefully come into play here.
14:00
They average 88 points a game versus 83 for the Lynx and
14:03
they're shooting 84% free throw percentage versus 78% for the
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Lynx. So in this situation here, aces
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dog to fave line move. Fantastic bet split ultimate buy
14:14
low, sell high fishy makes no sense.
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I'm going to go money line here. If this is a close game, I don't
14:19
want to lay a 2 1/2 or a three, have aces win by one or two and
14:23
I lose my spread bet. So I'm just going to go money
14:25
line in this one. Let's go.
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Let's hope that the aces win this game on the money line.
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I got the aces at -145 now over 2 the NFL pre season after we
14:36
cashed a big bet last night with a little bit of luck from the
14:38
gambling gods on the Colts. Found another game to fit the
14:42
model here tonight. Information based bet aligning
14:45
with the betting market. It is a game 7:30 PM Eastern
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Time Miami Dolphins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
14:52
Now this one's intriguing for a couple reasons #1 similar to
14:56
that Aces WNBA game, dog to fave line move.
14:59
We open the Miami Dolphins on the road -1 1/2 - 2.
15:04
Now it's flipped to Tampa Bay -3 and I see a couple books that
15:07
are Tampa Bay -3 like -115 like, who knows, it may even go to 3
15:11
1/2. So we got a dog to fave line
15:13
move in favor of Tampa. Great bets split in favor of
15:16
Tampa. They're only getting 34% of
15:18
spread bets, but 60% of spread dollars.
15:21
So this is a fade. The trendy dog Publix on Miami
15:23
and the points. Yet this line is going toward
15:25
Tampa Bay. And of course, let's look at the
15:27
information based angle here. Miami is it's McDaniel didn't
15:33
really say what he's exactly going to do.
15:34
He said some starters may play a little bit.
15:37
So take from that what what you will.
15:39
But basically maybe 2O will play a series.
15:42
But overall it's going to be a lot of Mike White at
15:44
quarterback, Skylar Thompson. And I was also reading about how
15:47
a lot of the wide receivers for Tampa Bay are going to be out
15:50
tonight. Tyree Kill, Jalen Waddle, OBJ
15:53
River Crate Craft, Willie Sneed. Willie Sneed still hanging
15:56
around the NFL. So all these guys are out to
15:59
avoid an injury or they are injured.
16:00
So a lot of Miami's offensive weapons will not be playing in
16:04
this game tonight, even though to a may play a series or he may
16:07
not play at all. On the flip side, Tampa Bay is
16:10
going to play their guys. They're they're going to play
16:12
Baker Mayfield to start, who might play a series or two or he
16:15
might play more. But you're looking at these
16:18
Tampa Bay players playing a quarter if not more the
16:21
starters. It's also important to note that
16:23
these teams have been playing each other in joint practices.
16:26
So I think it's an opportunity to really read kind of local
16:30
beat reporters what they've seen.
16:32
Because again, you're going to often times see some coaches
16:34
say, hey, it's more important for me to get these players, you
16:37
know, in a in a controlled environment and get them snaps
16:41
in the joint practices versus caring about the actual games.
16:45
Quarterback for Tampa Bay after you're going to get Baker
16:48
Mayfield to start, Kyle Trask, John Woolford.
16:51
So I'm looking at how to play this one, Miami, Tampa Bay.
16:55
And one thing that I want to take advantage of it is again,
16:58
the fact that Tampa is going to play a lot of their starters
17:00
early and then second-half, we don't know what the hell is
17:02
going to happen. Like last night we got lucky
17:04
with that late touchdown to cover the number that could have
17:07
easily been an agonizing lay a 6 1/2 win by 6 and lose your bet
17:11
because crazy things happen in the second-half.
17:13
So with Mike White and Skylar Thompson, these guys have played
17:15
in the league. You know what if Tampa Bay gets
17:18
off to a good start, has a lead at halftime and then maybe lose
17:21
the game or doesn't cover the number full game odds.
17:25
So we've done this before. I'm going to target the first
17:28
half money line. I'm going to go Tampa Bay to win
17:30
the first half. I got it at -155 on the money
17:33
line. And here is a here's a stat that
17:36
you're going to like first half money line favorites in the pre
17:40
season this year. If you just take whoever's
17:42
favored in the game to win the first half, 21, seven and 775
17:46
percent, 16% ROI. So what does that tell you?
17:50
It tells you that when the teams are favored, typically they have
17:52
a lead at half and then when crazy crap happens in the
17:55
second-half, all bets are off. Maybe they blow it, maybe they
17:57
don't, but that's my angle here, guys.
18:00
Tampa Bay dog to fave line move, getting a point and a half now
18:04
laying 3. They're going to play their
18:06
guys. They got a great bet split 34%
18:08
bet, 60% dollars. And again, Baker Mayfield and
18:11
some of these starters are going to be out there versus the Miami
18:14
Dolphins who are likely to sit a lot of guys.
18:17
So let's win the first half I'm going Tampa Bay bucks to win the
18:21
first half first half money line bet at -155 so that about does
18:26
it for A5 pack year for tonight. But what you've all been waiting
18:30
for fighting in the UFC. That's right.
18:33
We have UFC Fight Night and I tell you what guys, this is
18:37
going to be at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
18:40
But what really intrigues me about this bout is the fact that
18:44
it is the main event, Jared Cannoneer versus Chow Baralho.
18:49
Now, when we look at, you know, kind of our model here for UFC,
18:52
which we've won ten straight, seeing if we can go eleven
18:55
straight here, you know, it really doesn't matter.
18:57
You know, I feel like we don't often have the the main event.
19:00
You know, it's a maybe it's a prelim, early prelim, maybe it's
19:03
down the card a little bit. But when I get that e-mail from
19:08
Bet MGM every Friday morning from a buddy, John Ewing, I
19:11
don't look at who the names are. The first thing I do is cover up
19:14
the names, cover up the odds, and immediately first look at
19:17
the bets in the handle. I'm looking for low bets, higher
19:19
dollars. Then I uncover the odds and I
19:22
look at how the odds have moved. And then if I'm checking off
19:24
boxes, then I look at the names and I do a little research on on
19:27
both brighters. So the one that jumped out to me
19:30
is the main event. And again, we don't often have
19:33
main event bouts here with our system matches.
19:35
It's just kind of how the cookie crumbles.
19:37
But I did have a system match here with our model on Chow
19:42
Barol Ho. I'm probably butchered his name,
19:45
the poor guy, but Ciao Baraljo, I'm going him on the money line
19:49
at -250 So shop around. There are some shops that are
19:52
high as like -272 fifty was the best price that I found.
19:56
But let's start with, as we always do, our system model when
20:00
it comes to UFC. So for those who have been from
20:03
with us from the very beginning, or maybe you're brand new or
20:06
maybe you saw something on Twitter and you got intrigued by
20:08
the data-driven model we are looking at.
20:11
Hopefully aligning the tail, the tape, the physical and, and and
20:15
age factors with what the betting market is doing.
20:17
And what do I mean by that? I want a fighter who was
20:19
younger, taller, has a longer reach and really most
20:23
importantly, has a line move in their direction as well as a low
20:26
bets, higher dollars bet split. And then we'll give some
20:28
supplementary factors. So I landed on Chow Boralho
20:31
CAIOBORRALHO because right off the bat he has a great bet
20:37
split. Ciao Baraljo is only getting 41%
20:41
of bets, but 69% of dollars. So what does that tell us?
20:45
It tells us that we have a huge low bets, higher dollars bet
20:47
split as well as a fade. The trendy dog, Trendy dog here
20:51
is Jared Cannon here. Jared Cannon here is getting 59%
20:55
of bets. So we're on the contrarian side
20:57
with a great low bets, higher dollars bet split.
21:00
Now let's look at the line move Ciao Baraljo open around -175
21:04
now he's up to -250 so he has moved, you know, 5075 cents in
21:10
his favor. And why is that important?
21:13
Because the public 59% of bets are on Cannoneer, yet the line
21:17
is going to Ciao Baraljo. So that tells us that this smart
21:20
money is going with Baraljo. And again, you got to line these
21:22
up. Like some fighters might have a
21:24
good bet split, but maybe the lines going against them, this
21:27
model that we use, it's got to be the same direction.
21:29
It's got to be the low bets, higher dollars, with the line
21:31
moving in favor of the low bets, higher dollars.
21:34
So that's the case here with Baraljo.
21:36
So 41% bets, 69% money. Move from -175 to -250.
21:42
And then here's where it gets even better.
21:44
Youth advantage, a big youth advantage.
21:46
Ciao. Barolo is 31 years old.
21:49
His opponent, Jared Cannoneer, is 40 years old.
21:53
So what's one thing you might have learned from me at this
21:55
point? We want a fighter who was
21:57
younger and specifically fading fighters who are 35 or older and
22:01
fading fighters who are at least five years older than their
22:04
opponent. So that's a big fade for me.
22:06
Fading Cannon here, 40 years old over the hill here.
22:10
I know Tom Brady would disagree, but 40 years old in a extremely
22:14
violent sport like UFC, what's the status of his chin?
22:17
That's what I want to know. Meanwhile, Chao Brajo, 31, prime
22:21
of his career, so nine year youth advantage.
22:24
Chao Brajo is 6 foot one. Jared Cannon here is 5 foot
22:27
nine. Another advantage there with a
22:29
height advantage. Now Cannoneer has a length
22:32
advantage, 77 inch reach versus 75.
22:35
So you don't have the reach, but a huge youth advantage, a big
22:38
height advantage. Then I was reading about child
22:41
Brawlhall and kind of the match up here.
22:43
Couple things that I read that I really liked.
22:45
Number one is he takes much less punishment.
22:48
This was one of the factors at play with who was it ever see?
22:52
We have so many ones, I forget who there, but last week the guy
22:55
took far less punishment. So significant strikes absorbed
22:59
per minute. Cannoneer is absorbing 4.19,
23:02
Baraljo is absorbing 2 point O 6, so he takes less punishment.
23:07
Significant strike accuracy. When you dish out punishment,
23:10
your accuracy is 60% for Baraljo, 52% for Canoneer.
23:16
Also takedown advantage. Can you get to the mat?
23:19
Takedown, takedown advantage 1.99 versus 0.47.
23:26
So basically Baraljo basically takes his opponent to the mat
23:30
far more often. You know what is that more, more
23:33
than twice, almost three times as many in favor over his
23:37
opponent. Cannoneer take down accuracy.
23:41
When you go for a takedown, do you take the guy down to the
23:43
ground, to the mat? 63% for Brauljo, 46% for
23:48
Cannoneer. Take down defense.
23:50
Can you repel someone trying to take you down?
23:52
76% for Brauljo versus 61% for Cannoneer.
23:57
And then I was also reading about how Charles Brajo is the
24:00
more efficient fighter. He's really good at submissions
24:03
and he's the much better grappler.
24:04
So if we get to the mat, you know, the youth, the length,
24:09
his, his grappling, his takedown advantages, hopefully that
24:12
really provides a big boost here for us to hopefully win this
24:16
bout. So we have a great bet split,
24:18
41% bet, 69% money, good line move, reverse line move and fade
24:23
the trendy dog -175 to -250 huge youth advantage, big height
24:28
advantage, better takedown accuracy and defense, better
24:31
significant strike accuracy, takes less punishment, more
24:35
efficient, better submitter and better grappler.
24:38
Chef's kiss guys, we just checked off quite a few boxes
24:40
here, so add it all up. I'm going to go with Chow
24:43
Baraljo on the money line to win this UFC main event.
24:48
Boy at -250 so that about does it.
24:52
Another episode here of the All Systems Go Sports Betting pod in
24:56
our pocket. This is the part of the pod here
24:58
where I asked something of you. So if you enjoy the All Systems
25:01
Go pod, you enjoy the breakdowns, you look forward to
25:03
the pod dropping each afternoon, whether you want a tail fade or
25:07
just sit back and listen to some breakdowns.
25:09
Maybe I give you a 5 pack, maybe you pick one or two.
25:12
You like that you're going to ride with me.
25:14
Whatever the case may be, thank you.
25:16
Thank you for listening. Thank you for taking the time
25:18
out of your day to tune in and sweat these these breakdowns
25:21
with me and then sweat the games with me later in the night.
25:24
But if you can do one thing for me today, please help me grow
25:27
this podcast. Recommend it to a friend, But
25:29
more importantly, can you please give it a 5 star review?
25:32
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, boom, click the five
25:35
stars. If there's an option to follow
25:37
or leave a good review, that'll be great as well.
25:39
If you click follow, that means you'll be alerted as soon as it
25:41
drops. Each weekday afternoon would
25:44
really mean a lot to me guys. And if you already have, thank
25:46
you. I appreciate you.
25:47
Secondly, if you enjoy these style breakdowns, obviously you
25:51
want to win every bet we can. But to me, I think in the end,
25:54
you realize, hey, it's all about winning and losing, but it's
25:57
also about the process, the model, the blueprint, not just
26:01
picking a game correctly, but saying, how did you come to that
26:04
conclusion? Why I know you like this team,
26:06
but why? Is it your gut instinct or is
26:08
there data behind it? Well, if this style of betting
26:10
appeals to you or spoken to you, or maybe you never really knew
26:14
that this style of betting was even an option.
26:16
Betting based on what the market is doing, being almost like a
26:20
Wall Street trader tracking the stock market.
26:23
But if this style of betting you enjoy and you wanna learn more
26:26
about data-driven betting, guess what?
26:28
I wrote a book. Go buy my book.
26:30
Pick up a copy for you or for a friend or a colleague or family
26:33
member or a buddy of yours. Just go to Amazon.com and type
26:36
in the everything guide to Sports betting.
26:38
Pick one up and it's got everything I've learned in the
26:41
industry. How lines are set, how and why
26:43
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
26:45
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
26:48
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
26:50
It's all included in the Everything guide to sports
26:53
Betting. So pick one up.
26:54
I want to see at the book. I'll sign my book for you and
26:57
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale of course.
27:00
Next, have you signed up for your 7 day free trial of Juice
27:04
Reel and Rhythm? Well, if you haven't done it
27:06
yet, I want you to do that right now.
27:07
All you have to do is click the custom links that are located in
27:10
the bio description of this podcast.
27:12
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, you just go to the
27:15
description of the pod. It should have some.
27:17
It'll have a breakdown and tell you, OK, today's pod we got 5
27:20
pack of sweats plus a UFC fight or bite I should say.
27:24
Scroll down, you'll have a link to Rhythm and a link to Juice
27:27
Reel. Now both these pods are great
27:30
because they focus on data and there are two pods that help me
27:32
win and I want them to help you win.
27:34
So let's start with Rhythm. Rhythm is fantastic in terms of
27:37
data-driven pics and props, as well as looking at both creating
27:43
your own system matches in models or just following the AI
27:46
models. Rhythm is done a ton over the
27:48
summer to revamp the website to make it even better.
27:51
So right now we have obviously WNBA system matches, golf and
27:55
then literally starting tomorrow.
27:57
I know college football starts tomorrow.
28:00
I don't have any bets right now. We shall see what how that
28:03
changes. I might take a slow approach
28:05
with college football, but you're going to college football
28:08
system matches. NFLNBA is right around the
28:11
corner. Rhythm is great.
28:13
Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions.
28:16
And then Juice Reel. Juice Reel does a great job
28:19
giving out best bets each day from Robo Jackson, the hardest
28:22
working AI bot around. They're two of them come out at
28:25
noon each every single day. And then you can also look at
28:28
arbitrage opportunities as well as sharp mush plays and syncing
28:33
up your sports books to the app. So both Juice Real and Rhythm
28:35
help me win. They'll help you win.
28:37
Go sign up with those custom links located in the bio
28:39
description of the podcast. So that about does it everybody.
28:43
Of course, I'll leave you with a couple things.
28:45
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
28:48
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
28:50
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
28:53
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my
28:56
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
28:58
Or of course, out in the desert. The true grinders get down where
29:01
Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest as
29:03
possible is found at the South Point.
29:05
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
29:07
swimming pool when you're able and lucky enough to get to
29:10
Circa, wherever it may be. Throw away those Raisin Padres
29:14
MLB tickets. That was disappointing.
29:15
Couldn't even get one of those. How pathetic.
29:18
But guess what? Show me a Colts minus 6 1/2.
29:22
We nailed the cap there, but we needed a little luck.
29:24
And we got it with Dmitrik Felton running through the back
29:28
door for us, covering that number.
29:29
What a beautiful hit that was Pleasant surprise after I
29:33
thought we were cooked when that when the guy caught the fade in
29:36
the right side of the end zone. But guess what?
29:38
First one's on me, next one's on you.
29:40
We'll post about the book. Sweat Sharp contrarian plays all
29:42
night long. So wish you the best luck
29:44
everyone. Have a great Friday and an even
29:47
better weekend. My parting words as always, stay
29:49
sharp, stay contrary and bet against the public.
29:51
Place yourself on the side of the house.
29:53
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
29:55
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
29:58
But remember, we're always playing the long game and we can
30:00
bet with our head and not our heart and get down.
30:02
We find system matches against the public, with the house, with
30:05
the pros. Flat bet, avoid parlays, get
30:08
that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
30:10
to be successful sports bettors. So again, have a great Friday,
30:14
have an even better weekend. I look forward to seeing you
30:16
guys back on Monday when we return for episode one O 5 of
30:20
the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
30:23
Rhythm. Have a great day everybody and
30:25
an even better weekend. Good luck.