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Mac & Bone- Ben Fawkes Interview · Mac & Bone Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Right now, though, no need to get angry. Your next guest,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: he's going to give you some betting analysis here. All right.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I'm sure a lot of y'all are getting ready to
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: bet football games. Heck, some of you probably started with
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame game. I won't judge you, all right.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: And Ben Fox is a senior sports betting analyst for
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Yahoo Sports, and he joins us here on the Mac
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: and Bone showed to talk betting and football, two beautiful things. Hey, Ben,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: how you been man? What's going on?
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Doing well? Fellows? I was going to say, don't tell
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: yourself short. They might want to listen twice. They might
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: want to listen to the same show later in the day.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Just you know, I feel like I didn't miss anything.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: You haven't some of those guys, Ben, tell us why
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: we're wrong twice.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to get greedy. I'm glad you said it,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: b Bet. I didn't want to get greedy. But hey,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: if you want to listen twice, baby, let's do it.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: All right. So we actually had a segment Ben about
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: something that you shared about the betting on the on
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the with MGM and how heavily slanted it was. I
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: think you put this over the week. How heavily slanted
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: it was on the Week one game towards the Bears
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: over the Panthers. I guess it was like ninety three
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: percent of the bets when it came to the point
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: spread were Bears minus two and a half. Does that
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: surprise you? I mean, we're kind of Panther homer, so
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: we like we took exception with American betters for that.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: But does that surprise you at all? Or does that
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: make sense to you?
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: No?
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: I mean I think it makes sense. There's a little
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: bit I think as I talked to one Odds maker
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: of what he called the love affair with the Bears
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: this offseason. Right, so there's always kind of that team
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: right where oh Man look at that. Everyone remembers Caleb
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Williams right against the ram backpedaling that unbelievable touchdown pass,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: And so I think they're projecting that and they're saying, Okay,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: do we really think that Panthers are that good? It's
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: less than a field goal, even though it's on the
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: road Week one, Hey, this is free money, right, Usually
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: that's a bad idea, right home underdog under a field
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: goal is usually a pretty profitable over the long term angle,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: so I'm not surprised that we've seen the public latch
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: on again. Obviously a long ways until the game actually
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: kicks off, but I would think that that will hold,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: and it will still it's not going to be ninety
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: percent necessarily of the best and the money on the
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Bears to cover, but I would expect that's certainly going
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: to be one unless that kind of gets up to
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: three and maybe there's some buyback on the Panthers. But
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: I think from the public's perspective, it seems like, Wow,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I think the Bears are better than the Panthers. They're
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: getting less than a field goal. To me, this seems
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: like a good wager, So I think that's where that is.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: I think it's probably more pro Bears than anti Panthers.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they are trendy, no doubt.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: Ben's got some great info all the time, betting wise
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: on his Twitter feed at b Fox twenty two that's
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: b Fawks two to two. I encourage people give a follow.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: There's a lot of information like that, like right there
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: about the Bear's number right now with the Panthers. Ben,
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: when it comes to betting, the NFC South champion, who
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: do you think is the best bet right now?
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Man, I would love to come on and say the Panthers,
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: because I don't want to disappoint the disappoint the listeners.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: I think I think I probably would go with the
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Saints just because of the potential value that you're that
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: you're getting as well. So you got to look a
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: little bit at who you think is going to win
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: and then kind of the price potentially be you're getting
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: as well. So you have the Bucks are favored right
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: now the Saints plus one eighty Saints second round plus
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: two sixty Panthers plus three twenty five Balcons about four
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: to one. I think the Saints, even though that's plus
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: two sixty. A lot of the different there between them
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: is also the schedule. Some of that is just who
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: those you're playing right outside of those divisional games and
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: some of those other ones. So the Panthers, because they
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: won that division, they have a much tougher schedule. I
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: think they have. I want to say, yeah, they have
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: the third toughest schedule by opposing season win totals. So
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: if you take the schedule for seventeen games, you add
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: up the win total of every single opponent that they have.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: They have the third toughest schedule in the NFL, whereas
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: I think the Saints are somewhere around like twenty eight
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: to twenty nine. They've one of the easier schedules. So
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: based off of that, Tyler Shuck rising a lot of
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: people also like him, not sold on the Bucks without
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: Mike Evans and you know the Vita Vea situation and
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: all that, and the Falcons. I just think I just
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: did a piece asking odds makers basically the point spread
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: difference between the starter and the back if the starter
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: went out, and there was roughly a point difference between
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: to as a starter and Michael Pennock Junior, which is
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: kind of bad in both situations, right, it's bad there's
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: only a point difference, and then it's also bad that
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: was the least difference between the starter and the backup.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: So basically osmakers saying neither of them are very good.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really matter who's there. So if you're taking
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: the best kind of skill position talent, you have the Falcons,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: but is anyone getting them the ball? Which has been
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: their issue over and over and with the Falcons, you
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: just worry their biggest issue with the pass rush. They
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: then went ahead and drafted a pass rusher and traded
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: up for another pass rusher, and we know one isn't
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: going to be on the field with Jalen Walker and
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: his knee injury, and now we're not sure certainly about
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: James Pierce Junior. So all of a sudden, what you
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: thought potentially could be solving some of that weakness now
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: turns into a weakness. And you gave up draft capital
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: to get that. So there's a lot of question marks
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: for a lot of the teams. It's one of the
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: wide open divisions. But I think in terms of the
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: value and potential kind of on the rise, I would look.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: I would look for the Saints as well as how
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Tyler Shuck played towards the end of last year.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Hey, I won't hold it against you because you just
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: told us how down on the Falcons you are.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: That made it better.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Okay, that made it better.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: At the end.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: That's a good see, good plan there. You touted the
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Saints and you rip the Falcons. That falcon's ripping is
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: going to carry me through, all right. He's got a
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: job to do, all right, Panther fans, he has given
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: you your honest opinion. He is the senior betting analyst
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: for Yahoo Sports. So let me ask, let's open it
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: up here, what what are some of the over underwind
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: total numbers that as we get closer and closer to
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: the season and they kind of, you know, maybe have
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: moved a little bit. What are your favorite couple you
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: know over under win total numbers right now?
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I mean one's moved a little bit, So
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: certainly you probably would have to pay a little more
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: juice to get it back at four and a half.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: What the Arizona Cardinals open that four and a half?
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: They are down at a lot of sportsbooks to three and
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: a half. It's just hard to see. You start to
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: look at the games and the schedule. They're right now
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: projected to be an underdog in all seventeen games. They're
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: the only team to be projected to be an underdog
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: in all those games, and a lot of those games
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: it's at least a touchdown or potentially double digits. Now,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: it's possible that the betting market just undervalue them, But
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: when you start to look at just okay, in how
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: many games are they going to have the better quarterback? Right?
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: Whether that's right now, Jacoby Brissett starting at some point
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: it'll probably be Carson Beck. It's just difficult to see
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  Speaker 2: a ton of wins on that schedule. So I think,
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: especially at four and a half, liking that under is one.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: And then one that I think we're thrown off a
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: bit from the AFC South because of the playoffs is
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: the Houston Texans and you just saw CJ. Stroud play
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: as poorly as kind of a quarterback. You know, I'm
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: a Viking stand even though I cover the NFL as
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: a you know, obviously for my job. I think if
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: the Texans had JJ McCarthy in that playoff game and
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: he just handed the ball up, they probably they have
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  Speaker 2: a better chance of feating the Patriots than what c J.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Stroud put up. But that being said, that entire defense
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: is coming back. Tanks Dell Is coming back off of
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: the injury as well. Nico Collins was hurt now he's
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: back potentially healthy. Like that team, especially with that defense,
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: is absolutely loaded. They're over under. I believe it's nine
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: and a half. That's one. I like the over. I
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: just think that defense is going to be able to
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: carry them. And it's the classic kind of CJ. Stroud.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: He doesn't need to be his rookie year's self, but
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: if he at least is average or potentially above average,
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  Speaker 2: it's hard to not see that team winning double digit
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: games in admittedly a tough AFC, but I think they
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: are the team in that division, and so if they
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: can rack up some potentially you know, easier wins than
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: that division win some other out of division. I think
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: that defense is just really really good and that's a
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: very high floor for that team. So over nine and
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: a half. Another one for the text and to there
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: that I.
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: Like, Ben, not only are the Panthers the most bet
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: on team against in Week one of the NFL Slate,
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: you got to tweet up a week ago about how
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: much the public is fading UNC against TCU. Per bet MGM.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: Right now, ninety one percent of the spread bets are
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: on TCU minus seven. Ninety nine percent of the money
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: line is on TCU. Does that has that gone too
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: far against the Heels or does that make a lot
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: of sense based off last year and just where the
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: UNC program is right now?
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think so obviously, right ninety nine
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: percent of the money that may be that somebody that
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: you know, five thousand dollars or something on one side
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: and hasn't come anything come back on the other. That
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: being said, it's hard to find a lot of takers
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: I think right now for UNC, just because you look
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: at the spread and even though it moved from six
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: and a half to seven for TCU, UNC was kind
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: of non competitive in some of those games, including against PCU,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: which I believe was the opener last year as well,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: And so it might not matter if you're getting seven,
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: it might not matter if you're getting fourteen. Right if
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: they don't have a defense, they don't have an offense.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Now they did get obviously they had a year right
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: to recruit some of their players, get some of the
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: guys in there potentially that they wanted. But with the
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: whole situation with Michael Lombardi, it just doesn't seem like
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: a team you would want to be backing, especially making
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: I believe that game's in Dublin, the international trip like
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: that to me is just you have continuity on the
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: TCU side and you have a little of kind of
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: chaos on the UNC side. So I'm not surprised that
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the public has been has been backing that. I think
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: that's going to be also a very popular teaser to
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: just get that down to all TC just has to
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: win the game, get that down from seven to one,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: and put that with something else for that opening Week
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: zero of college football. But yeah, unc IS is not
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: a team I think the public is going to be backing.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: I believe. I have to double check, but I believe.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Earlier this summer I looked in their win totals four
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: and a half, which I think was the lowest win
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: total Bill Belichick has ever had as a head coach period.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: Got to be college or pro.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: It, Ben, I'm not trying. I'm not trying to get
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: you mad or to yell me because I saw one
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: of your YouTube videos wearing big letters that said don't
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: bet parways on the video phone. Yeah, I bet. I
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: bet a lot of parways and I don't really win
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: necessarily a whole lot. What's the best strategy as we
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: approach football season, whether it's Saturdays or Sundays, what's your
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: best strategy on betting football to at least win some money?
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: So, I think the biggest thing, Number one with betting,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: you always want to go into what am I doing
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: this for? Why am I doing it right? And so
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: I think there's certain rules that differ a bit. If
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: you're looking, right, hey, this is a side hustle, or
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: I'm looking to make some money and maybe I want
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: to be a little more cautious. That's one thing. And
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: then there's another, which I think is a vast beast
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: majority of people, which is just this is fun, this
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: and entertainment cost. I'm going to throw some dollars somewhere.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: I think most people going to that second bucket. The
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: number one thing I would say is, yes, you should
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: probably limit the parlays that you bet, or if you're
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: going to just limit the legs, right, we've all done it.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: We all go into the sportsbook app and we start
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: putting things together and we say, it's got to get
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: to some predetermined odds, right, like it's got to be
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: plus money, it's got to be plus one twenty five,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: or it's got to be plus three hundred, or it's
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: got to get to plus five hundred. It's like, remember,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: each leg you add on is decreasing the chance significantly
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: of you winning. That's why you get better odds. So
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: I would eliminate at least one or two legs of
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: whatever parlay you're considering, and maybe do a two leg parlay,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: maybe do a three leg parlay. In the NFL especially,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: I think teasers is a good way to go if
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: you can tease those favorites, you know, if it's a
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: seven and a half eight and a half point favorite,
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: tease that down under a field goal or vice versa.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: If you get, you know, a two and a half
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: point underdog, bumps that up to eight and a half.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Those are some ways that you can have a little
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: better shot, especially if you want to have some of
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: those parlays. Ultimately, your best chance is going to be
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: just betting the straight best you like, right, So if
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: you like the Panthers week one and you like them
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: plus three, just bet the Panthers plus three. If it
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: gets that, don't put Panthers plus three plus this money
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: line plus Bryce Young to throw two hundred plus yards
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: plus seth McMillan anytime touchdown.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Sounds like you both right.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: No, Teezers are great, especially seezers, especially in the NFL
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: when the games are decided, usually right near that spread
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: for the most part.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like those definitely, all right, he is I
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: just want some money off Ben. He is Ben Fox
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: here man, He's here to help all right. Some Panther
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: fans are mad at him picking the Saints as his
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: best bet in terms of odds in the division, but
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: he is here to help and hopefully some of that
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: stuff there will help you with your football wagering. Follow
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: him on x slash Twitter at b Fox FA w
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: k E S twenty two, b Fox twenty two, and
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: read his stuff on Yahoo. He's got a really cool
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: thing that you can find on Yahoo recently about that
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: he was kind of alluding to about the points that
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks are worth in the spread. Very seeing stuff there,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: uh as well. We appreciate it, Ben, Thanks so much
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: for coming on man,