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Inside Scoop with Breitbart News - John Hayward · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: Talkstation eight oh six. Here fifty five KRCD talk station.
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  Speaker 1: Great time to be tuned into the morning show. It's
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  Speaker 1: time for the inside scoop from bright Bart News. Welcome
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  Speaker 1: back to the fifty five krc Morning Show. Bright Bart
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  Speaker 1: National Security Editor John Hayward. Good to have you back on, John,
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  Speaker 1: know notably since we need to talk about what in
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  Speaker 1: the hell's going on in the situation between the United
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  Speaker 1: States Israel. Of course, any Ron, welcome back, John, Great.
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  Speaker 2: To talk to you again. That's a pretty big subject,
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  Speaker 2: no kidding.
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  Speaker 1: And what an active day yesterday, you know, Honestly, John,
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  Speaker 1: I hate to, you know, sort of laugh sometimes out
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  Speaker 1: loud about the whole thing. I mean, are we in
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  Speaker 1: a ceasefire at any given time or not when rockets
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  Speaker 1: seem to be going back and forth almost NonStop. So
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  Speaker 1: there's that fun fact. But had I saw this yesterday quote.
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  Speaker 1: I had a conversation with beating net and Yah today
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  Speaker 1: this is Trump asking him not to conduct a major
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  Speaker 1: raid on Bay Route. He turned his troops around, Thank you, Bibe.
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  Speaker 1: I also had a conversation with representatives of the leaders
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  Speaker 1: at Hesbala. They agreed to stop shooting at Israel and
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  Speaker 1: its soldiers. Let's see how long this Israel stopped shooting
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  Speaker 1: at them. Let's see how long this lasts. Hopefully it'll
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  Speaker 1: be for an eternity, declaring a ceasefire at Iran's behest
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  Speaker 1: because Iran has linked the situation between Hezbala and Israel
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  Speaker 1: with the broader straight of horror moves and actions we
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  Speaker 1: have against the Iranians. Now we haven't negotiated a sea
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  Speaker 1: fire where we haven't negotiated peace yet with the Iranians.
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  Speaker 1: Yet within hours of what Trump just I read, we
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  Speaker 1: had the Hezbala launching missiles into the into Israel. I
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  Speaker 1: guess they didn't get the memo. John, can you break
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  Speaker 1: this down and explain it to me, because I'm a
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  Speaker 1: little confused.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think they got the memo. I think that
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  Speaker 2: was very deliberate. The structure was created where we had
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  Speaker 2: a ceasefire, and it was based on his Bola not
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  Speaker 2: shooting at Israel. Israel said they would pull back from Beirut.
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  Speaker 2: Lebanon announced it as well as Trump, so it seemed
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  Speaker 2: like it was a real thing. And then Iran told
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  Speaker 2: his Bola to start shooting again. All they wanted to
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  Speaker 2: do was provoke and break up this, this seeming Dayton,
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  Speaker 2: and they did it in a matter of minutes, if
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  Speaker 2: not ours and his Bola was right back to attacking
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  Speaker 2: Israel Oram does this because they know that every time
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  Speaker 2: the seaspires collapse it helps them delay and rebuild and
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  Speaker 2: continue their usual scam. And they know at this point,
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  Speaker 2: their calculation is that the US is so eager to
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  Speaker 2: have some kind of negotiation in progress, to get some
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  Speaker 2: kind of a negotiated deal that will look the other
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  Speaker 2: way while they do these provocations. We'll let this slide.
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  Speaker 2: We'll find a way to excuse it or say that
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  Speaker 2: it doesn't totally disrupt the deal. The Iranians said when
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  Speaker 2: the israel first moved into Lebanon Passpay Route yesterday that
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  Speaker 2: they weren't going to talk to US at all anymore,
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  Speaker 2: and so far as I know, they haven't rescinded that declaration.
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  Speaker 2: So I'm not sure there's really any kind of meaningful
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  Speaker 2: negotiation taking place at all right now.
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  Speaker 1: Well, which means what John, Because we've heard Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: threatened I'm going to go full on kinetic or blow
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  Speaker 1: them off the face of the earth, whatever form of
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  Speaker 1: rhetoric he is used in the past, never to follow
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  Speaker 1: through with that. Does that not represent sort of an
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  Speaker 1: acknowledgment that maybe we're not capable of dealing with it,
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  Speaker 1: and it's going to be a much bigger challenge that
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  Speaker 1: it was painted to be at the outset. This isn't
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  Speaker 1: overthrowing a single guy in Venezuela. This is dealing with
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  Speaker 1: a religious fundamentalist reality among the Iranian people and most
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  Speaker 1: notably the Iranian the Iranian forces.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Unfortunately, I'm sure Trump has been appraised by military
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  Speaker 2: planners that the only way to nullify Iran's threat to
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  Speaker 2: the Strait of Ramuz, which is the big sticking point
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  Speaker 2: right now, is to invade and occupy the territory that
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  Speaker 2: they used to attack it, which means boots on the ground.
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  Speaker 2: He doesn't want to do that. The political costs of
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  Speaker 2: that would be enormous. Iran's pretty convinced he won't do that,
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  Speaker 2: and since they don't see any other proxy ground force
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  Speaker 2: taking shape, that's important. You know. At some point in
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  Speaker 2: this process, I think American planners may have thought that
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  Speaker 2: other Middle Eastern countries or dissident groups like the Kurds
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  Speaker 2: in Iran would be willing to rise up and take
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  Speaker 2: arms and become ground forces proxies, but all of the
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  Speaker 2: other Middle Eastern nations are scared to death of Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and they're refusing to do anything to fight back against
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  Speaker 2: them when the Iranians bomb them. So none of them
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  Speaker 2: is going to provide any kind of a ground army,
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  Speaker 2: and efforts to use somebody else as a proxy have failed.
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  Speaker 2: So the Iranians know that nothing they do is going
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  Speaker 2: to trigger a ground invasion at this point, and nothing
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  Speaker 2: would end their regime except a ground invasion, So they
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  Speaker 2: really have no incentive to do anything. But what they're
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  Speaker 2: doing just keep provoking, keep poking the bear, keep the
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  Speaker 2: disaster rolling along. They're looking at the calendar in the
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  Speaker 2: United States, the political calendar, and the midterm elections are
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  Speaker 2: drawing ever closer, and they're calculating that as long as
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  Speaker 2: they keep doing this, the odds of them getting everything
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  Speaker 2: they want and some kind of a negotiation are going
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  Speaker 2: to be better and better.
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  Speaker 1: Well, whether or not the odds of them getting better
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  Speaker 1: and better conditions in a negotiation, obviously that's going to
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  Speaker 1: require some progress on negotiations. We don't seem to be
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  Speaker 1: even negotiating right now, but I think what sounds to
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  Speaker 1: me like they have appropriately calculated the landscape and time,
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  Speaker 1: I guess is on their side. They know we got
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  Speaker 1: he's got a political problem Trump does. They know the
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  Speaker 1: war is not popular among the people, and the idea
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  Speaker 1: that all of the felt the Arab nations in the region,
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  Speaker 1: which ultimately I think would really benefit immeasurably from the
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  Speaker 1: elimination of the leaders in Iran. They're scared to death,
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  Speaker 1: in your words, of the Iranians for the same reason
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  Speaker 1: I guess we don't try to open the strait of
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  Speaker 1: horror moves. They can launch a bunch of missiles into
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  Speaker 1: these various nations and pretty much wipe out their oil infrastructure,
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  Speaker 1: if not their economies. Is that accurate, Yeah, exactly right.
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  Speaker 2: The other Middle Eastern nations, especially Saudi Arabia, the United
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  Speaker 2: Arab Emirates, Kuwait, places like that, they have valuable oil
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  Speaker 2: infrastructure that's somewhat fragile that they can't defend completely from
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  Speaker 2: swarms of drones and missiles out of Iran and most
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  Speaker 2: of those countries. I think we've learned over these past
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  Speaker 2: few months. Those countries may spend a lot on their militaries,
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  Speaker 2: and they may talk a lot about how fierce they are,
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  Speaker 2: but they're not warrior nations, they're not militaristic. They are
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  Speaker 2: no match for the Iranians in a straight up combat.
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  Speaker 2: And for years they've been pretending they would be the
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  Speaker 2: Saudis and the Amordis and everybody we're pretending to all
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  Speaker 2: together they have a significant military force that checks Iran.
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  Speaker 2: That's not true. None of them is really ready to
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  Speaker 2: fight Iran pitched battle. None of them can absorb the
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  Speaker 2: kind of casualties that Iran has demonstrated it's prepared to
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  Speaker 2: absorb and maintain power. And all of those Sunni monarchies,
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  Speaker 2: all the other Gulf countries, they have large populations of
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  Speaker 2: Shiite Muslims that are loyal to Iran or sympathetic to Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and they're all afraid that if they get into a
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  Speaker 2: major conflict with the Iranians, their Shiite minorities will rise
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  Speaker 2: up and cause them trouble, and theirs might be the
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  Speaker 2: regime that goes down. So, for all of those reasons,
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  Speaker 2: all of those countries would rather pay ransoms and sit
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  Speaker 2: back and let the Iranians dominate the Middle East. And
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  Speaker 2: it's been sobering to discover that. I think a lot
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  Speaker 2: of American planners didn't think that that was the way
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  Speaker 2: this is going to go, but that is the way
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  Speaker 2: this is going. Well.
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  Speaker 1: Time is on their side as they delay this process
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  Speaker 1: in order to bring about pain for Donald Trump at
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  Speaker 1: the ballot box in November. But also they've been using
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  Speaker 1: this time apparently to clear the entrances to targeted tunnels
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  Speaker 1: they are rebuilding missile production side. CNN reported about this
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  Speaker 1: just the other day about satellite imagery sowing that there's
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  Speaker 1: been a lot of repair that the Uranians have been
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  Speaker 1: able to do in a fairly short period of time.
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  Speaker 1: And of course, looming in the background of all that
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  Speaker 1: is the unknown seemingly acknowledged by everyone's stockpiles of missiles
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  Speaker 1: and drones that the writing and seem to have an
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  Speaker 1: unlimited supply of, which causes the very problems that interfere
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  Speaker 1: with our ability to negotiate some resolution with them. So,
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  Speaker 1: John Hayward, where in the hell does this leave us?
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  Speaker 2: Well? I think one other factor is that one reason
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  Speaker 2: Iran doesn't think Trump is going to go kinetic again
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  Speaker 2: is that we rely on bases in those Arab countries
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  Speaker 2: that are nominally our allies to do a lot of
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  Speaker 2: those operations, and at this point, after what Iran has
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  Speaker 2: done to them. In their response, I wouldn't be surprised
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  Speaker 2: if some of them refuse to let us do that again.
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  Speaker 2: And I know the administration doesn't want to push that issue.
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  Speaker 2: They don't want to say, Okay, we're going to renew
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  Speaker 2: our attacks. We're going to take out those Iranian drone
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  Speaker 2: stockpiles and we're going to destroy their missile capacity again.
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  Speaker 2: And the Saudis, the Amiorades, the Kuwaits will say, no,
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  Speaker 2: you can't use your bases in our country to do that.
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  Speaker 2: We don't want to provoke the Iranians into attacking us again,
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  Speaker 2: and nobody wants that to happen. Nobody wants to call
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  Speaker 2: that bluff and have that actually occur. So yeah, really,
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  Speaker 2: at this point, Iran's getting time to rebuild. They're putting
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  Speaker 2: things back together. They're and it's going to take them
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  Speaker 2: a long time to get back to where they were
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  Speaker 2: before what we did to them. But they've demonstrated that
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  Speaker 2: even at reduced capacity, there's still an existential threat to
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  Speaker 2: the other countries in the region, and that lets the
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  Speaker 2: exercise power. They have killing machines and they have the
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  Speaker 2: will to use them and the other countries around them
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  Speaker 2: lack the will and the end all conflict is a
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  Speaker 2: test of will, a test of morale, and Iran thinks
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  Speaker 2: right now they've got things going their way in the region.
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  Speaker 1: Well, all this leads me to sort of conclude, and please,
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  Speaker 1: Dear God if I've missed something, correct me if I'm wrong,
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  Speaker 1: because I'm looking for some note of optimism. This john
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  Speaker 1: the idea that the Iranian people so sick of one
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  Speaker 1: hundred percent inflation year over year, they had fifty three
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  Speaker 1: point nine percent inflation. Of course, the central back of
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  Speaker 1: Iran in one month. They can't manage. The Iranian people
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  Speaker 1: are starving and they have to be upset with their leadership.
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  Speaker 1: Does their religious fundamentalism trump the pain that they're feeling,
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  Speaker 1: the starvation that they may very well be feeling very soon.
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  Speaker 1: I guess that's where my only glimmer of hope seems
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  Speaker 1: to come from. A people, a populace that rises up
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  Speaker 1: against the Iranian revolutionary Guard.
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  Speaker 2: Well, for some of them, yeah, their fundamentalism does trump
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  Speaker 2: everything else, and that's why they're sticking with this. But
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  Speaker 2: the others are scared to death. They remember when they
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  Speaker 2: rose up in January, the regime murdered forty fifty thousand
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  Speaker 2: of them without blinking an eye. And however much Iran
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  Speaker 2: has been degraded, they still can murder their own citizens.
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  Speaker 2: That's not hard to do. When your population is unarmed
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  Speaker 2: and you have murderous thugs ready to pull the trigger
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  Speaker 2: on them. It's not that hard to keep a vast
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  Speaker 2: population under control with violence. And the public knows if
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  Speaker 2: they dare to come out right now and protests against
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  Speaker 2: the regime, they'll be slaughtered in mass and I think
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  Speaker 2: that's keeping them quiet. You know, they know nobody's going
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  Speaker 2: to save them if the regime starts doing that, and
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  Speaker 2: they're afraid to go out there and just be killed
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  Speaker 2: by trying to stage in uprising right now. Possibly another
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  Speaker 2: miscalculation on the part of planners. Maybe they thought that
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  Speaker 2: once we weakened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard cord, the public
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  Speaker 2: would come out and feel like they can't be massacred
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  Speaker 2: again like they were last time. But they apparently are
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  Speaker 2: still scared to death of that. So I wouldn't look
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  Speaker 2: for that popular uprising anytime, really seen. If it happens,
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  Speaker 2: it'll be a game changer one way or the other.
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  Speaker 2: It could end in a massacre like nothing we've ever
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  Speaker 2: seen before if they tried to do it. But who
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  Speaker 2: knows would that even change world opinion? Would any of
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  Speaker 2: the people that bailed on Trump when he was asking
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  Speaker 2: for help during Operation Epic Fury. Would any of those
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  Speaker 2: other countries change their minds if they saw one hundred
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  Speaker 2: thousand Iranian citizens gunned down in the streets. I doubt
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  Speaker 2: that they would.
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  Speaker 1: Well, we don't know what went on behind the scenes
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  Speaker 1: when Trump decided to launch this military action against the Iranians,
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  Speaker 1: but I have to say that I was one of
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  Speaker 1: the folks that you know. I look at my Constitution,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I read declaration of war, and even though I think
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: the War Powers Resolution is in and of itself an
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: unconstitutional delegation of authority, at least it's on the books
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: requires some measure of congressional action and guidance that requires discussion,
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  Speaker 1: and discussion ahead of time might have brought up all
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  Speaker 1: of these terrible realities of what's going on in Iran.
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  Speaker 1: Right now. We seem to have no oyes options that
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  Speaker 1: will allow us to declare a win. And it also
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  Speaker 1: seems like we're going to end up leaving Iran and
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  Speaker 1: control the straight of horor moves and build every every
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  Speaker 1: ship that goes through for some sort of fine or
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  Speaker 1: toll or fee.
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  Speaker 2: But I.
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  Speaker 1: Do we have we are we're out of options?
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  Speaker 2: So are we?
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  Speaker 1: I mean seriously baseball.
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  Speaker 2: Well let me willing to neutralize.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think that these problems that we're facing now
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: that seem, of course, with hindsight to be so maybe obvious.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think these conversations were had ahead before we
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  Speaker 1: launched this strike or is this just are these things
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  Speaker 1: that we just overlooked or didn't think were possible?
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  Speaker 2: Oh? No, I think this was discussed within the White House.
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  Speaker 2: The problem with trying to do it with Congress is
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  Speaker 2: that there is zero transparency there. You know, anything you
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  Speaker 2: say to Congress is going to get leaked and become
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: public knowledge. And the opening movement here, remember was this
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  Speaker 2: devastating initial strike that took out the Ayatola and a
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  Speaker 2: lot of the top leadership. There's no way they could
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: have done that if they didn't do it exactly the
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  Speaker 2: way they did, acting with light speed and taking advantage
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  Speaker 2: of an opportunity. That part was amazing. Like to say,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of variables here. Yeah, there's a lot
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  Speaker 2: to discuss and I'm sure they talked about a lot
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: of this stuff, and some of it was just a
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: miscalculation or misunderstanding. Some of it were gambles that might
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: have paid off and they just didn't. You know, some
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: of them are nasty surprises. I think a lot of
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: the behavior of the other Middle Eastern countries is a
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: genuine surprise, because I'm sure a lot of those countries
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: talked very, very tough right up until the moment when
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  Speaker 2: they revealed that they're actually it's craving, you know. I'm
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  Speaker 2: sure that was a big factor in all of this.
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  Speaker 1: Well, the decapitation strike that started this off seemingly brilliant, obviously,
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  Speaker 1: with everybody packed in one room and one bomb blowing up,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: effectively killing all of the leadership, you know, a La Maduro,
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  Speaker 1: you would have thought that would end up a regime change,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: but boy, they've got enough people willing to fill those
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: the vacuum of leaders right away. It doesn't seem to
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: have had any impact long term in this conflict. So
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: great from an optic standpoint at the outset, but the
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  Speaker 1: result not what anybody expected.
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  Speaker 2: Right in the end. The most important thing that happened
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  Speaker 2: after that was that the IRGC. The military took over
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  Speaker 2: everything and is now one hundred percent running the country
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  Speaker 2: in every way, and they were ninety percent running it before.
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  Speaker 2: You know, it was somewhat of an illusion that they
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  Speaker 2: ever had a meaningful secular government, but most of that
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  Speaker 2: illusion has now been stripped away. There's persistent rumors that
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: the president, the sued Possesskin, has either threatened to resign
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: or he did it, and they're denying those rumors in Iran.
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  Speaker 2: But I wouldn't blame him for being feeling frustrated and
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: feeling like his wing of the government has been rendered
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: irrelevant by everything that's happening right now.
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  Speaker 1: Well, John Hayward, the Breitbart's security editor, you want to
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: try to end on a note of optimism or are
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: we Are we in as dismal a place as I'm hearing?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I'll say one thing. This blockade of Iran is
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: definitely an effective tool. It is hurting them, and if
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: we keep it going for long enough, it might hurt
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: them enough where even the fanatics and the military types
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: are feeling the pinch and that want that to end.
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  Speaker 2: If we can hold the blockade one hundred percent. There
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  Speaker 2: are some rumors that we haven't been able to hold
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  Speaker 2: one hundred percent of Some things have gotten through, but
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  Speaker 2: it's definitely cut down Iran's commerce. It's definitely hurting their economy,
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  Speaker 2: which was weak to begin with. That kind of pressure
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  Speaker 2: can be very effective, but it's a test of will,
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  Speaker 2: and on our side we have people grumbling about higher
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: gas prices and midterm elections coming out. The Iranians are
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: looking at where they think the finish line is and
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: how long they need to hold out to get there,
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: and I'm not sure they're wrong about the amount of
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  Speaker 2: time left to really bring them to heal with this pressure.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: So if Trump can think of another way to ratchet
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: the pressure up even more without going kinetic again, that
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: would help. If there's another card yet to be played
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: like that, but I'm not sure if there is.
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  Speaker 1: John Herrick Forrey Park Company. Where is China in all this?
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  Speaker 1: I know they have a problem with the straight uform
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  Speaker 1: moves being closed also because obviously they get most of
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: their oil from the Iranians. But someone has to be
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: funding and supporting the iranians devastated economy. Someone has to
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: be supplying them with drones and arms and missiles or
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: other supplies they need. To keep this conflict going. Do
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  Speaker 1: you have any concept of where they are in this role.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, that's China. They're big partners of Iran. They're
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: not really happy with a lot of what Iran has done.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: They've made it publicly known that they're a little disgruntled
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: with some of the way Iran and Russia in Ukraine
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: have done things that have compromised China's long term plans.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, Iran is a
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: part of their axis. They're not going to abandon them.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: They're still their partners, and they're looking forward to making
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: money on rebuilding Iran and rearming Iran when the crisis
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: is over. So China publicly calls for some kind of
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: a peace deal every day of the week, but they're
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: not going to do anything to actually change the calculations
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: or balance things out. I think maybe some American planners
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: thought China might be so distraught at the Straight of
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Hormosian closed that they would help to reopen it forcibly
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: by sending their ships to help police it. They've made
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: it clear they're not going to do that. So they're
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: getting some oil through the Straight of Hormos. We are
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: seeing a couple of ships pop through their mysteriously and
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: come out the other side with oil. For China, it's
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: a fraction of what they used to get every day,
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: but it's enough to help them keep going combined with
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: their enormous reserves, and unless things get a lot worse
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: for China, I wouldn't look for them to step in
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: with a strong hand against RAND and say, look, at
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: a minimum, you have to stop menacing straight or four
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: months
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Rightbart dot coms where you find my guests today, John Hayward,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: The Nationals,