Latest / The Curve / The reason Spotify's stock price jumped 18% in one day.

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The reason Spotify's stock price jumped 18% in one day. · The Curve

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That Taylor Swift song that you just listened to, was it Taylor Swift, or was it a remix by
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Vic and Sof?
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Spotify's share price is up 18% in one day because it's just announced that it is launching
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AI-generated content.
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There has been new data and research coming out in the last week that we have read an
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absolutely mind-bond by why birth rates are declining is totally not what we expected.
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And Victoria's Secret is bringing 60 back.
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This share price had absolutely fallen off a cliff and now it is up nearly 200% in the
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last 12 months.
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Victoria's Secret is a classic example of when you put a female CEO in charge, how things
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can absolutely turn around.
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But before that, we've got a couple of top stories that we just want to do an update
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on, SpaceX, Lulu Lemon, and what's going on with BP.
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This is the curve weekly where we read the finance news so you don't have to.
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I'm Vic Harris, a finance professional and have had a career making money for other people.
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And I'm Sophie Bullwright, ex television and radio producer.
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The second tired really of not understanding the economy, so we turned our chats into
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this podcast.
0:58
Huge thanks to Emily Rigby, our amazing podcast producer and Lucy Monroe, our social media
1:03
manager, and everyone else behind the scenes.
1:05
Before we dive into it, we've got to work from today's sponsor.
1:13
This episode of The Curve Weekly is made possible thanks to Pathfinder Kiwi Saber Plan, helping
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you invest alongside your values.
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We're really excited to bring you the ethical hotline where you can ask all your tricky,
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ethical questions.
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Each month, Pathfinder will answer the most interesting, popular or polarising question
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Follow the link in the podcast show notes.
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A product disclosure statement is available at Pathfinder.kiwi.
1:39
We've got a very important story to tell before we get into our highbrow content today.
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Highbrow?
1:45
But it came into the offers the other day and told us story and all of us were like,
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you have to tell on the podcast.
1:52
I was like, I can't believe I didn't remember, but I went to the gym there the other day.
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Yes, I go to the gym now.
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Is this a new thing for you?
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No, it's just so far away from my house, so I'm always like, yeah, go and then I'm
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just like, is it the one on the other side of London?
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Yeah, but it's so nice.
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Yeah, it's brand new anyway.
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It's beautiful.
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It's like a full day activity.
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And when I go, I feel like, I'm like, I should come here more.
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You know, it's one of those.
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Yeah, really beautiful.
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There's like every contraption, like there is those things that pulse your legs.
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There's like the machine.
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There's just so many machines.
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There's dust, dust.
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And I went in and I was like, oh, what's this?
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And it looked like a sauna.
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It was like this round wooden thing.
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And no, it was like an oxygen chamber and it's like a lazy boy in this sauna thing.
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And you put this mask on that looks like an oxygen mask.
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And I was like, gosh, I don't think I'm that much of an athlete, but anyway.
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But there's basically, there's all these PTs in there.
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There's often famous people.
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You kind of have beautiful, even just looks.
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I mean, it's not a great place to go if you're feeling well on the self-esteem.
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And I also walk in and I can't, yeah, I know what I'm doing.
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I have no idea what I'm doing.
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What's that machine?
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You know, I just end up kind of running on the treadmill and then, yeah.
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Which you may as well just be like, I know.
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I know, I know.
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Every time I get back today, you should try a new machine and then I just,
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I do think the machine thing and like having a pt.
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It makes sense when you go, you're like, oh,
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if I just knew almost a 45 minute thing that I could do, it would make,
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I spend most of my time just locking around and like, what's that up?
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Maybe I'll, and then I end up doing the same as you.
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Or just getting a mat and going on the ground.
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I'm like, you see, you see those memes with people like using the machines from.
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And she just like, oh, my God, I'll be that person.
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I'm going to film me because I've got something on my leg, which should be on my arm
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or something.
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Anyway, I was there the other day and I put my mat down to do,
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yeah, just to do some like, mat work because I've done my rather trademark
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I was most of that avoid the machines and I was putting my mat down and then
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someone kind of came behind me and was like, excuse me, can I borrow, can I just get another mat?
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I looked around and I was like, oh, I'm like, oh, I was like, yep, yeah, cool.
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Yeah, yeah, it's, and it was, um, Column Turner, okay.
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So for anyone that doesn't know, honestly, and I was like, just say something cool,
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like say something cool, then I said, no, don't say anything, not say anything.
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And he just looked so cool, like just in the best get up and like, oh,
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and then I was kind of doing my plant, like looking like down.
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Oh, yeah.
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And then I was like, he can't see, yeah, that's like, it was quite good.
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And then he was like, doing this move with this weight and I was like, I can do that move
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with the weight.
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And I was just trying to like, copy it, yeah, anyway.
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And how was the dollomite?
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It's dollomite sounds like, I don't know, some kind of disease.
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Like a might.
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You're thinking like a little like a dust might or something.
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Yes, yeah, like lies here.
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Nice.
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But no, it's a beautiful place and it, yeah, it's an actually, it's like these big Italian
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sounds.
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Do you know what?
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I felt more like Austria to me.
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It was really not Italian.
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Yeah.
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I sort of went and I think you passed a pizza, right?
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And then it used to be Austria.
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Yeah, okay.
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It used to be Austria.
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So it looks like Switzerland, Austria and the food's quite noun to me.
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Like it was just not what I was expecting in terms of.
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I thought I'd be having put ketchup.
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I remember when I was in, when I went to, like, come on, like years ago.
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And yet the bottom, it was, it was Italy.
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And then as we got a boat, like up the top, I was like, I feel like I'm in the sound of music.
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Yeah, Switzerland.
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I felt like the sound of music.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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I literally see it as we were driving through.
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I feel like this is a place to yodel.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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We're just going around with those big skirts and things out.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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Yeah, it looked like you've just made butter.
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Yes.
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So no, it was amazing.
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There's something about being on holiday and like not having anything to do except read and hike.
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It was, I was just, I'm just the best version of myself.
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I finished your really good book.
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We really need to do a book review on it.
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It's not a finance one, though.
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It's a fiction, but it's gone.
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It's gone.
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Right.
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What's it called?
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Easter Year?
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Oh, I want to read it.
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Yeah.
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Can I read it and then we do it together?
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Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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Because I want to read that, too.
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Well, so I'm sure you've listened to my solo podcast that I did last week.
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I actually listened first.
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No, on my back from the airport, I was doing a full-on view.
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No, I can't wait to talk about SpaceX.
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I was listening to you talk about it.
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And I was like, this is absolutely wild.
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Wild.
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And like I have been really interested in reading like opinion pieces in like different public
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cases, like I'm just, it's so polarizing.
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Is it going to be the best IPO of all time?
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And we're going to see people walking on Mars pretty soon?
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Or is it going to be the biggest flop?
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I've never seen IPO so polarizing.
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And it is because it's the biggest IPO that we will have ever, ever had.
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So SpaceX, for anyone that doesn't know, is Elon Musk's business.
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It has kind of almost three sub-businesses that are going to be going public
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for the first time within it.
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It's kind of like three divisions.
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You've got connectivity.
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So you've got the satellites.
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The satellites, Starlink.
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They have 75% of all satellites in the world.
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So huge, huge, huge market share.
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You've got the space division, which is SpaceX, which is the rocket launchers.
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And then you've also got the AI division, which is his AI business, XAI.
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And then you've also got like Twitter and what was Twitter?
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You've got X, which isn't there.
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Yeah, it's expected to be a $1.8 trillion company.
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We've never had a company come to market straight out of the gate.
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It's a trillion dollars.
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And the key thing with this is it's going to go pretty much straight into the index.
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Of course.
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And which means like yes, you might have a lot of demand for this IPO initially.
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But then two weeks later, it's going to go straight into the NASDAQ 100.
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So not the S&P 500.
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But the NASDAQ 100's top 100 kind of tech companies.
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So you've got all the big names that we know in there already.
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And then you start getting all these ETFs buying shares.
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Because people, people like you and me, if we invest in ETFs, say we invested in the NASDAQ 100 index ETF,
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then if we've got regular investments in the ETF, we're just regularly buying SpaceX.
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So you kind of have this support.
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Like it's really strange for a company to IPO and go pretty much straight into an index.
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Usually with the S&P 500, you have to be listed for 12 months.
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You have all these other criteria to make sure that you're kind of a consistent top 500 performer, I guess.
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So the way that you can think about this is a lot of people don't invest in singular companies.
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ETFs are a really great way to get exposure to a whole lot of different companies.
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And so the idea that a lot of people will already be buying the NASDAQ at an ETF format.
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It's like money's going straight into the business that otherwise if it takes a while to get there.
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So it's almost like if it talks actually, you talk a lot about the idea of,
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and I remember when you first spoke about this, it made no sense, but it still doesn't.
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No, no, it's sort of like the rising tire lifts all but it's like if you're in something like the S&P 500 or you're in the NASDAQ 100,
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by just a virtue of being there and this money pouring into that area,
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you're sort of growing with all that money.
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Whereas if you're not in it, you don't have access to the same amount of investors.
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It's like a store opening up on like a street front.
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It's a good idea.
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And like you've got a few people passing by and then if you're good enough,
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you can go into the shopping mall and you've got this captive audience,
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people that always come in, they go to other shops, they buy things from other shops,
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but you're there or like kind of do not work totally okay.
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It's just the idea of you being the place where the money is where you're not normally.
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The thing you mentioned last week about Elon Musk's, what's it called like bonus structure?
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When you said has one of his is to get a million people living on Mars,
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I firstly thought this is so another PR fund, genius.
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And secondly, I thought does anyone know how awful it is to live on Mars?
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It's not like you can't even go outside.
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There's not quality of life.
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I at first was quite excited.
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I was like, oh, this feels hopeful and how amazing that we, you know,
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we can diversify where we're living.
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And then I looked up Mars and what it would be like to live there.
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It is dire.
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Yeah.
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I don't know why I thought it'd be fun and hot and scorching and cool.
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It's not.
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It's like a pile of sand.
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It would be great.
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You're not allowed to go outside.
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No.
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It'd be like, it's like a spaceship almost.
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Like a submarine.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Anyway, one thing I don't think I touched on last week was, yes, this IPO is massive,
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but all that money has to come from somewhere, right?
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Like it's, they're raising $80 billion.
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$80 billion dollars has to come from somewhere.
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And most of it will come from like other stocks in the stock market.
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People will be selling shares to buy this.
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You know, like if I didn't have any money to invest, and I really wanted to invest in SpaceX,
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I would sell my other investments to invest in this.
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So it's just a lot of money at one hit.
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And then we've also got open AI.
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We've got anthropic that are supposedly coming to market this year as well.
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Like where the hell is all this money coming from?
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Definitely a lot of people are saying there's no way this can't be the top of the bubble.
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There's no way that this can IPO and that the market can eat, particularly the US market can continue to grow.
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Like there's got to be a point in which it's popping.
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And this has always spoken about for a really long time.
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There's kind of the market aspect and what indications this means for the stock market
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and like the world we're living in, then there's kind of the company aspects.
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And I hate to say it, but Elon Musk delivered on every outrageous thing that we have thought.
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And we sit here and we laugh about a million people on Mars.
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I kind of am like, no, this can't be.
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It's so weird that you say that because when I listen to your solo episode, I thought that.
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I even though this is a huge, there's no way that's not a PR stunt, you know?
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Like as soon as there's so something they know is going to be pulled apart and spoken about
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and get interesting to talk about the IPO.
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You know, like that's obvious.
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But I also, in the same breath thought, this is probably going to happen, which is terrifying.
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I've also seen a lot of people talking about the way that IPO's, you know,
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there's all this initial hype.
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People get so excited almost immediately if you look at some of the most popular companies
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who think this would know, even if you didn't know, they'd had the IPO.
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When they went public for the first time, they came out of the gates really, really well and then did badly.
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It's usually, it's the ones with a lot of hype that you're right to type.
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And then it dies down. They have maybe their first financial result.
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They release, it's not quite what people expected.
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Or people make a lot of money at the IPO and they sell.
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They're like, okay, I've made a bet. You know, this has had a really great, great hype.
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It's done really well or whatever.
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Also, the key thing with this is, Elon Musk is going to have completely nutored control.
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Like he has got, I think it's over 80% of the voting right.
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Like he is, he is facing.
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Yeah, yeah, exactly.
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So if you're investing in this, you're investing in him and he is not perfect.
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He has a big ego, but he has got shit done.
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And I'm so glad that I've like a life to witness this is quite crazy.
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Does this feel like a real moment?
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It does. I'm just, I really need to make up my mind with either one side or the other.
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And I just like, the more I read of the more I research, I get kind of more confused.
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And part of me is like, I think I'm leaning towards backing it.
13:04
Really? Yeah.
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I'd be interested to hear maybe if anyone's listening to this and has an opinion thoughts,
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please comment wherever you're listening, because it is such a polarizing for so many reasons,
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not just because he's the CEO.
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No, but like investing in founded businesses is exactly what we say all the time.
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It's like invest in visionaries and founders that take a long-term view.
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Like Elon Musk takes the longest term view and is so visionary.
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Anyway, that's my piece.
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Yeah, no, no.
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Okay. Lula lemon.
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So we spoke about this a few weeks ago now.
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They had that three way kind of issue with they had the existing board.
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So Lula lemon stunt shit, by the way, if nobody's.
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They had the existing board.
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And then they had this new CEO coming from Nike.
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They didn't have their founder also wanting to make change.
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And then they had this activist investor who wanted to put the X rough Lauren CEO.
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And so there was kind of a three way battle at the board.
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Basically, there's so many conflicting views on who they think should be running the business.
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It's been doing badly.
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The person who founded it is named Chip, right?
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Is that his last name or first name?
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Chip Wilson.
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Chip Wilson.
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Kind of a funny name.
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So anyway, Chip.
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This is baby.
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Chip.
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I kind of like it.
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Chip.
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So he basically they put a new CEO in that he didn't like.
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He wanted someone new.
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Everyone was basically disagreeing.
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They were trying to they're all in their own view of how this could do better.
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Anyway, the founder and existing board have come to an agreement.
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He is now allowed to have two board seats.
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And one person is put on that board is the ex CEO of on holdings, which you know those shoes.
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They're like hockers.
14:39
Oh yeah, yeah.
14:40
Yeah, yeah.
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They got upside.
14:42
Oh yeah.
14:43
Yeah, yeah.
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That company has done well either.
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They're doing that.
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I don't know.
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Did some people who actually have had really good track records in similar businesses?
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It was so bad to me.
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And the funny thing though is that the founder now has a pretty much a gag order.
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And he can't say anything disparaging about Lula lemon.
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Because he was previously out there being like the board strip.
15:01
They're not doing the right thing.
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I kind of get that.
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I mean, firstly, we said talking about it.
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Yeah.
15:06
Because he was doing that.
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But secondly, I imagine they probably just wanted to get him to shut up.
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They're like, fine, we'll give you two board seats.
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But you need to stop talking.
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Totally.
15:13
It's like a child.
15:14
You have two board seats.
15:15
Fine.
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But shut up.
15:17
Yeah.
15:18
Pretty much.
15:19
Okay.
15:20
Let's move on to BP and just do a quick update on what's going on here.
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Because it's been drama central.
15:23
Honestly.
15:24
BP.
15:25
It feels like a little bit lost.
15:26
Lost child.
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It's had its first ever female CEO and it's the first female of like a major oil company.
15:33
Like it's quite major.
15:34
They've had a lot of turnover.
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They've had five CEOs in six years.
15:39
I can imagine the distraction, right?
15:41
Of like someone leaving, coming in, getting their fed under the desk and then they're leaving,
15:45
like as everyone that works, it'd be so scary.
15:48
And it's very challenging.
15:49
The growth would be impacted anyway.
15:50
Like they've also turned through three chair people.
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The chair of the board.
15:53
Yeah, the chair of the board.
15:54
Yeah.
15:55
And this is all started because back in 2020, six years ago, BP was the first major oil company
16:02
to commit to slashing oil and gas production by 40% for the next 10 years.
16:07
So by 2030.
16:09
And really shifting intern renewables.
16:12
Investors were initially like amazing, but it didn't.
16:16
The returns were absolute shit.
16:18
And so they got rid of that CEO.
16:20
They've had another one.
16:21
They've had another one.
16:22
Like the share price fell.
16:23
It became half the value of Shell.
16:25
It's, you know, closest competitor.
16:27
Like it was quite disastrous.
16:28
So it kind of went back on those targets.
16:31
And it's just been kind of flopping.
16:33
And anyway, they've had this new CEO come in and she's the first female CEO.
16:37
So I'm just hoping that she can bring about, bring about some changes and some stability.
16:41
But it's been a bit of a drama.
16:43
Well, yeah.
16:44
I mean, the last two stories were spoken about BP and then also Lulu Liman.
16:48
You know, have you heard of the glass cliff?
16:51
I hadn't heard of this until researching these stories.
16:53
And I kind of shocked me.
16:56
Not really.
16:57
Oh, I mean, at what point we not shocked anymore.
16:59
But for anyone that doesn't know, this is basically, it's a concept that was coined by two researchers.
17:04
Michelle Ryan and Alex Heslom.
17:06
They looked into women minority groups and when they're sort of put into leadership roles.
17:12
And the way in which it's almost, it's almost into roles that a lot of men would shy away from
17:19
because there's such high risk of failure.
17:21
So this situation and Lulu Liman, where both businesses are massively struggling.
17:26
And it's like, we're scrambling almost.
17:29
And it's like, nobody wants to take it.
17:30
So it's like, let's give it, not give it to a woman.
17:33
But maybe it's like there's more women that are open to taking it.
17:36
Maybe it, who knows?
17:37
But this is a phenomenon in the fact that there is so many different, massive business cases
17:44
where like Yahoo, when it was having a total meltdown, they put a woman.
17:49
Which is shit, right?
17:50
I think we get tarnished.
17:51
Well, that's what I mean.
17:52
It's like, it's almost setting people up to fail in a way.
17:55
And I think that, yeah, mega-neil, who's the new person that's been put in BP?
18:00
The enormity of what she has to turn on and deal with.
18:03
And the same with the CEO that they were trying to put into Nike.
18:06
Yeah, Theresa made.
18:08
What is it as well as a really good one?
18:10
Whether it's in politics or in business.
18:12
When people say when shit is hitting the fan, imagine there is shit all over the walls at this point.
18:16
Any business or in an economy.
18:17
And they find someone who's willing to try.
18:20
Yeah.
18:21
But the hurdles they have to get over to actually succeed is so enormous.
18:25
I kind of think of it also as is that they need that kind of different kind of leadership.
18:30
They need more of the empathetic kind of leadership because what hasn't worked in the past
18:36
and now they're kind of not clutching its straws.
18:39
They're kind of in a place of desperation.
18:42
They're like, we just need to try something different.
18:44
Well, I mean, I think there's a nice way to look at it.
18:46
I think what's problematic though is that the stats that you then look at in terms of female CEOs succeeding.
18:52
It is tarnished by this because they're not getting a fair shot at doing it well.
19:00
So the first big news story that we wanted to look at today is Spotify.
19:04
Its share price was up 18% in one day.
19:07
I am devastated that I didn't invest in this.
19:11
So they have struck a deal with universal music to let subscribers create AI
19:18
generated covers and remixes of real songs.
19:20
And the key thing here is that it's all legally licensed.
19:23
So this will cost extra on top of your Spotify subscription.
19:27
And it's essentially kind of turning one song into like 10,000 songs.
19:31
And the idea is that you can personalize and kind of remix your music inside the app.
19:37
And investors obviously loved this Spotify getting into AI music.
19:41
I don't know how I feel about listening to AI generated music.
19:44
So what kind of loser is putting their own AI generated remix at a dinner party?
19:49
I'm sorry, like, oh guys, here's tell us what's a remix.
19:52
Isn't that, isn't that, isn't that weird?
19:55
Yeah, but I reckon it'd be a good test case at a dinner party.
19:59
Just put it on and see if I'm going to say, oh, I love this music.
20:01
But what are you doing?
20:02
Sorry, you go into Spotify and you think, oh, I love this.
20:05
I'm going to do a remix and then you're DJing your own.
20:08
I don't understand how it works.
20:10
Yeah, you just create your own remix.
20:12
You can put your own voice in there if you want to imagine.
20:15
I mean, I think the whole thing is almost a bizarre.
20:17
But they're going to do it like Instagram has that like blue verification of like,
20:21
this is a legit account, you know, the little tick.
20:23
They're going to do like, this is a legit artist.
20:25
This is AI.
20:27
So you will, you will kind of know this is the tip Taylor Swift's song.
20:31
This is her singing. This is her record of that, whatever.
20:34
This is Sophie Hallwright, AI generated.
20:38
Okay, I have so many thoughts about this and I don't know where to begin.
20:41
Firstly, can you imagine, if you spent years building your record,
20:47
years writing songs, perfecting them, and then you give them to Steve
20:53
and he's completely bottering them at his own time.
20:56
I mean, I feel kind of problematic.
20:59
I just feel like we can't prevent this happening, right?
21:04
So how do you control it?
21:06
And I think this is what Spotify is doing is we are heading this way,
21:10
whether we like it or not.
21:12
There's going to be AI artist and there's going to be human artists.
21:15
How do we control and make sure that it's done in a legal way
21:21
and that the end consumer knows and the artist is fully aware of what's happening?
21:27
I don't know.
21:28
One thing I took away from this though is this is Spotify now getting into content.
21:33
Universal Music was the one that would give the content and Spotify just distributed it.
21:38
Now Spotify is getting into content.
21:40
I was speaking to a friend who's actually a drummer of Lord.
21:44
I was talking to him about the story and he was just saying,
21:47
I think slash hope that we will move into a place where artists are able to own their distribution more
21:54
and consumers can know that the way that they're supporting the artists that they like
21:59
is going directly back into the artist.
22:02
Someone he knows who won record of the year and had $200 or something in their account.
22:08
You know, it's like artists are struggling so much financially.
22:11
Even the ones that are doing really well, the system is so broken and I feel like
22:16
giving content or autonomy to users to be able to dissect and take art
22:23
that they're not even getting paid for.
22:25
It's where the world's heading right, having more ownership
22:28
and getting rid of middle people and my platforms and there's a lot of democratizing going on
22:33
anywhere, whether it be investing, whether it be music.
22:37
It's like power back to the user or back to the consumer.
22:40
It's just I think the deregulation of enormous control that used to be in few places
22:45
and you see the same thing with media.
22:47
We used to be in a place where there was three channels.
22:49
Now it's completely democratized.
22:51
You don't have to go to the same place.
22:53
You don't have to go to a record label.
22:55
I even felt this when I was working at Sony six, seven years ago.
22:59
It had its heyday, you know, 15 years ago.
23:03
Since then, it's been in slow decline.
23:06
Like desperately hiring big teams of creatives to try and turn things around.
23:11
It's, yeah.
23:13
It was like retail brands used to go through department stores and that was the way that they got exposure
23:19
was like being in a department store.
23:22
And now they're like, no, we want to own the customer.
23:25
We want to have that direct relationship.
23:26
And I think it's like there's lots of industries that are heating that way.
23:29
I just am not going to be creating.
23:31
So you're not going to see Sophie Hall right on Spotify.
23:34
I kind of want to.
23:35
One, two and two, three.
23:36
Just come over to your house and be like, hey, do you just like put this really cool place on?
23:40
And then you'll be like, this is great.
23:42
And you'll listen to it.
23:43
And I was just not going to be right.
23:45
We already have really bad taste in music.
23:48
Can you imagine then on top of that thing, like with deliberate mix, like, no.
23:53
Coming up off the break, we are going to speak about declining birth rates,
23:57
which I know we've kind of spoken about this so many times, different ways.
24:01
But I, I'm mind blown when I read this article.
24:05
I say and I read the same article you're talking about.
24:08
And I am really excited to talk about it.
24:10
I have a lot to say.
24:12
Thank God there's a microphone in front of me.
24:14
Okay.
24:15
Before we dive into that, just a quick word from today's sponsor.
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25:06
Right.
25:07
Now I often am not struggling to get my words out.
25:12
There are so many things I want to say right now.
25:14
Okay. So we're going to start with big picture.
25:16
Yeah.
25:17
Big picture.
25:18
Yeah.
25:19
So there.
25:20
Sorry.
25:21
We like so excited and unreal.
25:23
So more than 60% of countries around the world now have birth rates below the level needed to keep population stable.
25:33
So this is super concerning.
25:36
And we all know that when you have an aging population, so more people getting older,
25:43
then you do, you know, new young people coming in, being born into the world, into their country.
25:49
That starts draining, draining the economy and costing the economy a lot.
25:53
Like if you have a lot of older people on the pension using healthcare and you don't have enough young people
25:57
when paying taxes, you know, helping fund that, you get this really bad imbalance.
26:03
And it can be really disastrous for population growth, economic growth, and we saw it in Japan.
26:10
The interesting thing about this research is that the data for a long time was that yes,
26:15
population was slowing, but it was more in first world countries.
26:19
That's no longer the case.
26:21
And I think that is the most interesting part to this conversation.
26:24
There's so many reasons why populations and birth rates are declining.
26:28
There's economic problems, there's housing problems, there's so many things that people choosing,
26:34
like the modern woman you know deciding.
26:36
It's child care expenses.
26:38
I mean, the list goes on.
26:40
And we actually, we've been doing quite a lot of research on this lately,
26:44
especially because lots of the statistics that are saying that we're having less babies,
26:51
if you actually dig into it, it's that there's less teen pregnancies.
26:54
There's less young people having babies, which is a sign of, you know, education and people,
27:00
you know, having the autonomy to.
27:02
And also there's like, there's people that people are delaying having babies, but overall,
27:07
I guess there's like a high level statistic and then there's a lot of moving parts underneath.
27:11
And what we're saying that for a long time, the kind of average amount of children
27:16
was at two for most countries, that's now one, and it's in a lot of countries, it's zero.
27:22
And yeah, you're right, this isn't just like a rich country problem.
27:26
It's absolutely everywhere.
27:28
And people and researchers have tried to figure out, you know, is it the cost of child care?
27:33
Is it the fact that, you know, women are wanting to focus on their careers?
27:37
Is it the fact that people are now living in cities and houses are smaller
27:41
and therefore they're having their children, like, but nothing has really been found
27:46
to be the hang your head on.
27:48
We've found the reason until now.
27:51
Uh-huh.
27:52
So, sorry.
27:53
Sorry.
27:54
Sorry.
27:55
What are you doing?
27:56
I'm just, I'm, I'm so scared.
27:57
What are you about to do?
27:59
This is the reason.
28:00
Oh!
28:01
Hahaha!
28:06
I was like, sometimes you and your surprises freak me out.
28:10
I was like, what's happening here?
28:12
The reason is, the reason, look at you, wherever you are, look at your screen.
28:16
Or don't.
28:17
You're holding the problem.
28:18
You're holding the problem right now.
28:20
So, um, basically researchers come out saying that in the last 15 years,
28:23
the decline that we've seen in less babies being born can be directed more towards
28:30
one specific problem and that being iPhones.
28:33
Yes.
28:34
Smart phones.
28:35
Smart phones.
28:36
Yes.
28:37
Yes.
28:38
It's the graph.
28:39
It is scary.
28:40
And we obviously can't show you the graph.
28:42
We can if you're watching this.
28:43
Yes.
28:44
We could put it on the screen.
28:45
It's like shows that there's like a general trend up in terms of birth rates.
28:48
And as soon as 4G is rolled out, which is effectively smart phones, you know, across the
28:54
world, yes.
28:55
3G was more developed countries.
28:57
But then 4G pretty much every country has it and so that's kind of the indicator of
29:01
smart phone rollout.
29:02
It is like complete fall off a cliff.
29:06
So they've obviously taken the specific of smartphones
29:10
and declining birth rates and over later
29:12
and just seen like holy shit.
29:15
And it is because you're not socializing in person,
29:19
which means you're not meeting a partner
29:21
and then having making a baby.
29:23
Like it's kind of, it seems obvious,
29:26
but it's quite scary and frightening.
29:29
Well, I think in the same way that you're explaining
29:31
that there's the overarching problem
29:32
and then there's so many threads below it.
29:34
I think there's also so many threads
29:36
when it comes to technology because this also is not new.
29:38
And I was listening to FT,
29:40
the Financial Times Chief Data Reporter, John Byrne Murdoch,
29:45
was speaking about this.
29:46
And I just want to play a clip
29:47
because I think it's really, really fascinating.
29:49
The thing is we've had technological innovations
29:53
over the centuries throughout history,
29:55
what makes this particular shift
29:57
to more smartphone usage worse than other technological shifts?
30:03
Yeah, it's worth mentioning that these theories
30:06
are not actually new.
30:07
People have been talking about this
30:09
and finding evidence of this for a long time.
30:11
So in the 2000s, there was some really interesting research
30:15
done looking at the impact of televisions
30:18
and several different researchers
30:20
using different methods found that the number
30:23
of televisions per person in a country
30:25
was a stronger predictor of its birth rate
30:28
than simple measures like economic development
30:31
or female education.
30:32
You then had additional studies
30:34
that showed that even within couples,
30:36
those that had televisions or more televisions
30:39
had fewer children or had less sex than others.
30:42
Another study found that people who watched TV shows
30:45
centered around families that had you children
30:49
had fewer children themselves.
30:51
So this is not some kind of exotic smartphone-specific theory.
30:55
It's something that people have been talking about
30:58
and finding evidence for a long time.
31:00
So I think the interesting thing with that is
31:02
you know, you're talking about that graph
31:03
and for sure the iPhone coming out has
31:06
because we're all addicted,
31:08
we've got internet in our pocket,
31:09
we're scrolling on our phones
31:10
when we could be talking to someone in person,
31:12
could be out there meeting someone,
31:14
like doing activities outside,
31:16
like yeah, all of that.
31:17
But I think it is important to note that it's not as though
31:20
they hadn't considered this or looked into this data before
31:23
because everything that has a screen
31:26
that is taking you away from in-person interaction,
31:29
the common thread is the idea that instead of talking
31:32
to spending time with people engaging in a way
31:34
that is way more natural,
31:36
we're watching more, we're doing more with screens,
31:39
and that is the reason that people aren't meeting people.
31:42
If they meet them,
31:43
they're not actually creating a deep enough connection
31:45
they feel comfortable than having children with them.
31:47
Like there's so many threads that technology, I think,
31:50
is impacting the amount of people of sex
31:52
but also the types of relationships that we're in,
31:55
and I post we feel to someone,
31:56
and I think that's just so fascinating.
31:58
It's so interesting the TV comments,
32:01
because I don't know, there's like that saying
32:03
it's like when people have heaps of kids,
32:05
it's like, oh, yeah, we didn't have television back in back,
32:08
or something, there's always like a joke of like,
32:10
oh, your television must be broken,
32:11
I kind of forgot about the introduction of television,
32:13
it's exactly the saying, really.
32:15
It's just been massively accelerating the last 15 years
32:17
since we had smartphones,
32:19
but I think what's, yeah, I mean,
32:21
what's quite interesting about this is,
32:23
what can you do?
32:25
For a long time, we've been talking about this in terms of,
32:27
well, they should introduce childcare subsidies,
32:30
because people aren't doing it, because they can't afford it,
32:32
which by the way, all of these things are relevant, right?
32:34
Like people that can't actually have kids
32:36
and having to spend so much money on fertility treatments
32:39
or egg freezing, like there are many, many issues,
32:41
the fact that so many people can't find long-term accommodation
32:44
to feel safe enough and stable enough
32:46
to then think about having kids.
32:48
Like, there's for sure the financial and economic issues.
32:51
And we're not saying,
32:52
get rid of smartphones and the birth rates will go back up.
32:55
It's just, it's more, like there is so many issues.
32:57
Now, probably then there wasn't, when there wasn't,
32:59
you know, 20 years ago.
33:01
But also, how do you, you can't police that
33:03
or put a policy in place that says people
33:05
can't have phones in their bedroom.
33:06
Yeah.
33:07
I think it's just like, what do you do about that?
33:09
It's like a loneliness epidemic,
33:11
and it's got so many other issues as well as birth rates
33:15
of, you know, we're saying, like particularly in men.
33:18
But I think it's the idea of also like separating people
33:21
and people finding it harder and harder to find someone
33:23
that they want to be in a long-term relationship with.
33:25
But then be when they are in one,
33:27
being completely disconnected
33:29
because you're so distracted by your phone.
33:31
Or your expectations are very different, right?
33:33
Because you've been on TikTok and Instagram
33:35
and seen all these like beautiful relationships
33:37
or beautiful people that are like,
33:39
fall in love again and again.
33:41
And you're expecting that to be in real life.
33:44
Like that's what I should feel.
33:46
Yeah, I mean, we recently,
33:48
I was going to say in our household,
33:49
as if I'm so mature,
33:50
but I don't know if I've said this,
33:51
but I moved in with my boyfriend.
33:53
And we ordered a, when we read this article,
33:55
we ordered it in a long plot.
33:56
We're like, no phones upstairs.
33:58
Like, phone and our phones are downstairs.
34:00
I noticed that with my partner,
34:02
yeah, we're just kind of like,
34:03
all of a sudden it's silent,
34:04
and I'm like, oh my God,
34:05
we've both just been sitting there scrolling on our phones.
34:07
It's quite, like, not a scuffle walk.
34:09
I just think I'm such a, I need roles,
34:11
I need to be quite serious about it.
34:14
Otherwise, honestly, I would sit there scrolling for hours.
34:16
We need to talk about why this matters, though.
34:18
Yes.
34:19
Because, yes, we can talk about declining birth rates and all that.
34:22
But I think there are so many aspects of why,
34:25
you know, how it can impact an economy
34:28
and can impact stock market,
34:29
impact your money in your investments.
34:31
And we kind of touched on it before about Japan.
34:34
Like, aging population is one thing.
34:36
That's like really, really bad.
34:38
If you don't have that,
34:39
kind of puff up from young people paying taxes,
34:41
and we saw that in the 1980s with Japan,
34:43
the economy did, was like stagnant.
34:45
It did nothing.
34:46
It went from being like the second most popular economy
34:50
and most flourishing to, yeah,
34:52
just like lost decades, decades of growth.
34:54
And also, from a government perspective,
34:56
governments just have to step up and spend more
34:58
on pensions and healthcare,
34:59
because there's not that support
35:00
from younger people,
35:01
so there's less spending on education
35:03
or innovation or things like that.
35:06
It's basically at its core,
35:08
the idea of people,
35:11
and they're being enough people,
35:12
it means you produce more goods
35:14
that the people need.
35:15
If there's not enough people,
35:16
you're not producing the goods.
35:17
That's not creating jobs.
35:18
That's not creating, you know,
35:20
increasing the GDP.
35:21
It's all this big flywear,
35:22
where if you don't have the people,
35:24
you don't then have the demand to create the product.
35:27
Those businesses,
35:28
the ones that give people jobs,
35:29
you know, it's, it's,
35:31
it makes sense when you actually think about it.
35:33
But, yeah, I mean,
35:35
I used to look at these stats
35:37
and the idea of declining birth rates,
35:38
and think brilliantly.
35:39
Yeah, I was.
35:40
I was, I was like,
35:41
it's so good,
35:42
because the world is too populated
35:44
and global warming and blah, blah, blah.
35:46
But it's,
35:47
if all of the economies collapse,
35:49
I mean, what is the world going to look like?
35:51
I would rather have a really flourishing economy
35:53
with lots of young people being born
35:55
with an innovative mindset,
35:57
and, you know, the ability to fund new projects
36:00
and new ways of reducing our impact on the planet then.
36:04
Worry about the waste they create
36:06
or the resources that they use, yeah.
36:08
We do have one more story
36:09
that we should touch on before we finish.
36:11
Victoria's Secret has announced that it's changed its ticker
36:15
from V-S-C-O to V-S-X-Y.
36:20
Now, I just want to,
36:22
like, a ticker is effectively like a number plate
36:24
for, for a company.
36:25
Like, it's a quick identifier
36:27
we talked about on that company before.
36:29
Like, theirs is on on.
36:30
It was quite funny.
36:31
Love it.
36:32
The reason we want to talk about Victoria's Secret is
36:34
you will remember it had an absolute shocker.
36:37
The past, kind of, like, five to seven years, I would say.
36:40
I even was walking through the airport coming back from Italy
36:43
and I saw the Victoria's Secret shock
36:45
and I thought, I remember when I was so excited,
36:48
when I first went to America,
36:50
to go into the Victoria's Secret shock
36:52
and I got cute little underwear
36:54
and I got a sports bra,
36:55
they had Victoria on it or sport
36:57
and I just thought I was so cool.
36:58
I used to love it.
36:59
And I remember watching the Victoria's Secret fashion show
37:01
thinking it was, like, incredible.
37:03
And they had incredible artists
37:05
and, like, the outfits
37:07
and the woman in my opinion
37:09
looked incredibly beautiful
37:11
and then now...
37:12
The things had a real fall from Grace
37:14
and rightly so.
37:16
Exactly.
37:17
And I think it really speaks to the times,
37:19
the fact that it speaks to the times,
37:21
the fact that we were excited by the brand
37:22
that we looked at the show and thought, well, cool.
37:24
Because there was zero diversity,
37:27
there was, it was the whole thing
37:29
was problematic in so many ways.
37:31
It's almost like the epicenter of what is wrong
37:33
with the way that women are sexualized
37:34
and how we're expected to look
37:37
and they almost swung the pendulum quite far the other way,
37:40
didn't they?
37:41
They realized that the tone wasn't right
37:44
and then they needed to look at doing it differently.
37:46
Well, it was a bunch of men sitting around a boardroom
37:48
dictating what was, quote unquote, beautiful
37:52
and there was a big uproar of, like, no,
37:55
for a lot of people,
37:56
that isn't what they consider beautiful
37:57
and diversity is beautiful
37:59
and all different body shapes.
38:01
And yeah, so it was also found out
38:03
that Liz Wicksner, who is the founder,
38:05
had ties with Jeff Repstein.
38:07
That's right.
38:08
Yeah, it all just unraveled.
38:10
They got a new CEO and a female CEO, Hillary Super.
38:13
Oh, God, this is really on theme, isn't it?
38:15
Yeah.
38:16
In a dire situation, that's brilliant.
38:17
Oh, of course.
38:18
Oh, my God, it is.
38:19
Wow.
38:20
Yeah.
38:21
Anyway, she rejigged it in terms of its identity
38:24
and it looks like it's working.
38:27
They've had three consecutive growth quarters now.
38:30
They're on their way to expectations
38:32
of seven billion and revenue this year.
38:34
So they've really had a turnaround
38:36
because it was going backwards before that.
38:38
I just want to read a quote from the new CEO, Hillary Super.
38:43
She says, sexy is deeply personal.
38:45
If you ask a room full of women what it means,
38:47
you get a different answer every time.
38:49
Every woman gets to define it for herself.
38:52
Our role is to listen closely and translate what we hear
38:55
into products, stories and experiences
38:57
to help her feel seen, supported, and powerful in her own skin.
39:01
And it's interesting because, you know, in 2018,
39:04
one of the marketing officers, also a man,
39:06
this guy called Ed Rose.
39:08
He gave an interview in Vogue in 2018
39:10
that essentially was saying that, you know,
39:12
transgender women shouldn't be on show.
39:14
That, you know, the whole thing was, it was diabolical
39:17
what he said.
39:18
It's just amazing to see
39:21
where there were men and positions of power,
39:24
whether it's marketing, whether it's running the entire business,
39:27
trying to connect to women and tell them
39:30
how they should feel, look, etc.
39:32
Now having a woman that is obviously stepping into
39:35
what she knows to be true, which is,
39:37
you actually also can't even perform your way out of it
39:40
because after this happened when they tried to be inclusive
39:42
with bodies, it was almost worse.
39:44
So they're obviously genuinely trying now
39:47
to do it in a way that's authentic.
39:49
That there are different body shapes.
39:51
Everyone feels sexy in different ways.
39:53
So, I mean, and I think having a female CEO
39:56
is the epitome of that, right?
39:58
Like, she, I'm not saying that...
40:00
Well, let's be sure that's how she refers to the ethos now
40:03
in terms of what they're trying to make people feel.
40:06
Totally.
40:07
But we've also now got an activist investor in there.
40:11
This guy called Brett Bundy.
40:13
So this is someone who's, you know,
40:14
slightly accumulated a lot of shares
40:16
to try and bring about change in the business.
40:18
And when you get to a certain threshold, you know,
40:20
depending on the company, you can get a board seat.
40:22
So therefore, you can, you know, hire and fire certain people.
40:25
He is wanting a board seat.
40:27
And Victoria Secret has said no.
40:29
And they're citing his decisions to hire executives
40:32
with history of serious allegations of sexual harassment.
40:35
So he's got, he's got a bit of a tarnished track record
40:39
of hiring certain people.
40:41
And they're just like, we have done so much
40:44
to turn this brand around.
40:46
We are not letting you in here to reversal that hard work.
40:50
And are they able to block that?
40:53
If they get enough support from shareholders, yes.
40:58
I mean, he get one board seat.
41:00
It's not the end of the world.
41:02
But it does kind of, I guess, open.
41:04
It could open the floodgates to disagreements on the board
41:07
and then things don't get passed and then, you know,
41:09
strategies don't get implemented as quickly
41:11
because there's kind of like friction on the board.
41:13
So I'm surprised if things are going well financially,
41:15
why the breaches try to get in there and make a blunder.
41:19
Oh, no, she did.
41:21
That was a big joke. I'm surprised.
41:23
I know.
41:24
I know.
41:25
He has got a great track record of operating in female fashion,
41:30
I guess you would say.
41:32
He was the founder of Levisa,
41:34
which is like an online jewellery store,
41:36
bras and things dish.
41:38
Yeah.
41:39
So she's actually done quite well.
41:41
I always find like these ads and I'm like,
41:43
that's cool.
41:44
Oh, it's dish again.
41:45
I know.
41:46
I'm exactly the same.
41:47
It's quite reasonably priced as well.
41:49
Yeah, I know.
41:50
Yeah.
41:51
Anyway, I'm hoping this doesn't become a thing
41:55
because she has done incredible work in turning this business
41:58
and the brand and the whole identity
42:00
and what Victoria Secrets about around.
42:02
It would be fascinating to get her on and do a deep dive on the whole brand
42:05
and ask her what were some of the biggest business decisions
42:08
and marketing decisions that really led to the decline
42:10
and what she's trying to do to turn.
42:12
Because I genuinely thought it was like done for.
42:14
You know, like it has been a huge turnaround.
42:17
Yeah.
42:18
So she's been there for a year and nine months
42:20
and in the last year,
42:21
like if you think you take a while to get your feet under the ground
42:23
and bring around change.
42:24
In the last year,
42:25
it's up, the sheer price is up 200%.
42:27
Oh, stunning.
42:29
Love it.
42:30
Love it.
42:31
We love it.
42:32
We love to see it.
42:35
Okay, so we've got a community question.
42:37
I'm going to read it out
42:38
because I'm going to be throwing this one right over to you, Virk.
42:41
Hey, love the podcast.
42:42
And wondered if it's okay to reach out as I have a question
42:44
regarding selling stocks.
42:46
Well, you have come to the right place.
42:48
Now, if, for instance,
42:50
I have $1,000 worth of stocks
42:53
that I bought over a period of time.
42:55
They've grown in wealth and are now worth $2,000.
42:58
Woo!
42:59
Amazing.
43:00
If I sold 500 of this,
43:02
how do I know if I'm taking out the profit only
43:04
or some of the original investment?
43:06
I want to understand what will be calculated as profit taken.
43:10
And then how much I should be putting aside
43:12
for tax time regarding CGT.
43:15
I don't actually know what that is.
43:16
Capital gains tax.
43:17
Yeah, so CGT is capital gains tax.
43:19
New Zealand doesn't have it.
43:20
Australia, UK, most countries around the world have it.
43:23
And it's tax repay on the profit of your investments.
43:28
With this, her profit is $1,000.
43:31
She bought $1,000 worth of stocks.
43:33
And now it's $2,000.
43:35
The difference is $1,000, her profit is $1,000.
43:37
So if she sells 500, she sold half her profit.
43:39
Yes.
43:40
And I can't answer the capital gains tax question
43:42
on how much she's going to pay
43:44
because it depends how long she's owned it.
43:46
I assume she's an Australia because it's dollars
43:48
in capital gains tax.
43:49
Not pounds.
43:50
Yeah, but what would mean there's $1,000?
43:53
Australian dollars that is her profit,
43:55
which is what she would have to pay the capital gains tax on.
43:57
But then Australia has...
43:59
There's some...
44:01
In some cases, if you hold it for over 12 months,
44:03
you only have to pay half...
44:05
You only have to pay capital gains on half.
44:06
So anyway, you will have to pay some tax.
44:08
But what I'm saying is your profit is $1,000.
44:10
So if your investments have gone from A to B,
44:15
it's the gap between A and B is your profit.
44:17
That's solely your profit.
44:19
And then from there, you might have to pay capital gains tax on that.
44:22
So I guess when she's saying if I sold 500 of this,
44:25
she's only selling half her profit.
44:27
You're not actually selling your original investment.
44:30
Unless you got to $1,000 and you were taking out, say,
44:32
and you wanted to get it down to all you had in there was $500.
44:35
Then at that point, you sold 100% of your profit
44:37
and 50% of your original investment.
44:39
If that doesn't make sense, reach out.
44:41
We can let you know.
44:43
But it's essentially the original investment
44:45
will always stay the same as what you put in originally,
44:48
which for you was $1,000.
44:50
So if you sold 1,000, you'd be selling 100% of your profit.
44:54
Yeah, nice.
44:55
And you still have your original investment in there.
44:57
Sometimes I find when I read questions like this,
44:59
I mean, when I first read this, I thought,
45:01
oh, throw that over to you.
45:02
I mean, that's that quite well, I thought.
45:04
So sometimes it feels more confusing than it is, is my point.
45:07
Yeah.
45:08
Before we wrap up, quick mention for our IOU episode
45:12
coming out this month.
45:14
So it's coming out this week on Thursday.
45:16
Hanako Makas is, she's actually a New Zealander
45:19
who has got their most interesting story.
45:22
I mean, firstly, she's the biggest entrepreneur ever.
45:24
I mean, she has like a million businesses.
45:28
But she interestingly learnt about and had to budget
45:32
and pay for everything from the age of seven.
45:34
So her parents gave her money and she did everything
45:37
from socks, present like all of it.
45:39
And her approach to money and budgeting
45:42
is so interesting.
45:43
So that episode's coming out on Thursday for anyone else.
45:45
That would have been a steep learning curve for me.
45:47
It's seven.
45:48
I would have spent it all on socks.
45:49
And they'd be like, oh, shit.
45:50
You would not have spent it all on socks.
45:51
You would have spent it all on like lowly adults.
45:53
I was, I know.
45:54
I was such,
45:55
I was such a heavy child.
45:57
God.
45:58
You were a heavy child.
45:59
I like it.
46:00
I would eat so much birthday parties
46:03
of friends that I'd vomit.
46:04
Did there happen a lot?
46:05
A lot.
46:06
A lot.
46:07
Yeah.
46:08
Like in sleepovers.
46:09
Yeah.
46:10
Yeah.
46:11
Like Mum would have to come pick me up
46:12
because I was spewed.
46:13
Oh, it was just,
46:14
just like, draw yourself a bit.
46:15
Will you not give a nice.
46:16
No, we weren't given someone.
46:17
So then like, you just bear with me.
46:19
I remember my friend's house and she had this whole
46:21
draw of cookie time.
46:22
And I was just like,
46:23
and she was like,
46:24
very contained.
46:25
And I was like,
46:26
oh, I was just, yeah.
46:27
So I think it had the opposite effect
46:29
where my parents wanted.
46:30
I'm still really like learning self-control.
46:33
Anyway.
46:34
For me, it's when things are free.
46:38
I get so excited.
46:39
Yeah.
46:40
You know, if there's a free snack or a free drink,
46:42
I'm just like,
46:43
oh, perfect.
46:44
I'll have all of it.
46:46
Yeah.
46:47
Okay.
46:48
Well, have a great week, everyone.
46:49
And yeah, we'd love to hear any comments
46:52
thought on this episode, please.
46:53
Most platforms now you can comment
46:55
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46:56
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46:58
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46:59
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47:01
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47:02
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47:03
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47:04
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47:05
Just say hi.
47:06
Yeah.
47:07
Anything.
47:08
Anything.
47:09
We're desperate.
47:10
Yeah.
47:11
Okay.
47:12
Have a great week.
47:13
See you.
47:14
Bye.
47:15
Thank you so much for listening to The Curve Weekly.
47:16
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47:18
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47:20
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47:21
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47:23
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47:26
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47:28
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47:30
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47:31
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47:33
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47:34
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47:36
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47:37
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47:38
and we'll catch you for the next episode of The Curve Weekly on Monday.
47:49
Okay, quickly, The Curve was created to empower
47:51
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47:52
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47:54
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47:57
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47:59
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48:00
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48:02
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48:04
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48:06
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48:09
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48:11
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48:13
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48:14
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48:15
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