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Crypto Rundown: Top Bitcoin Trading Signals & Microstrategy Under Fire · CRYPTO 101

• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: All right, everybody welcome back to a special edition of Friday running down the one you've all been waiting for as you can see the charts are already on the screen And that's because we have two of our chart masters with you a double dose on Friday.
• 0:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: We have Brendan.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: We have hunt your guys.
• 0:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: Welcome to the show.
• 0:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're going to start off with Brendan first because we're going to cover everything from the charts.
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: What we're seeing in the price action.
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: We have to cover what's going on in Michael sailor, micro strategy and stretch.
• 0:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then we did.
• 0:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: We found some good fundamental news that we want to share with everybody to around altcoins.
• 0:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: There's some stuff going on with the top 15 most profitable altcoins.
• 0:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: We found that.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: We want to bring it to you.
• 0:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then just a normal fun Friday rundown.
• 0:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: A lot to talk about.
• 0:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: But as you saw in the thumbnail, we're breaking down the charts first.
• 0:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: So Brendan, take it away.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, too, though.
• 0:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's been quite the week over here, so far, man.
• 0:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin coming to news, cycle lows of just around $58,000 flat.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: This puts us lower than what we saw about a month ago at the start of June, and it puts us lower than we were back in February during that kind of crash in pullback.
• 1:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, what does this mean?
• 1:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: It means a couple of different things.
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is what that move looks like on the one-day timeframe.
• 1:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to zoom us out.
• 1:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: You can kind of see the initial break down from that last bare flag and the two-inch day moving average and a couple of those other levels that we talk about a lot on the rundowns.
• 1:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: The breakdown happened here.
• 1:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: Here's that low.
• 1:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Slight rise up into the 20-day moving average.
• 1:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: One of the things I think we talked about this on the last rundown, but I was like, man, this is starting to look like a bare flag again.
• 1:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: I know we've been talking about this in the community, but I didn't like it.
• 1:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: It looked like another rising channel, the rejections of the 20-day moving average, another rejection, and one of the things I really didn't like with this was last weekend's price action where we were able to move higher, come all the way back down with this wick, close beneath the weekend highs, and then kind of see these selling candles continue.
• 2:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we've seen it just kind of continue from that point on since last weekend.
• 2:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have kind of the Monday, start the Tuesday, the Wednesday, the Thursday, now the Friday,
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: And last night we hit that low of right around $58,000, putting us about $1,000 beneath or are high from about a month ago.
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: And about $2,000 beneath our high from early February over in here.
• 2:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: So this brings us to a pretty pivotal level.
• 2:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you're seeing
• 2:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: everything across the board kind of fall and it puts us in a weird spot and I think that this has been probably one of the more confusing times because what you see here is you see the stock market falling this week.
• 2:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: You see obviously the crypto market falling this week.
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: You see energy prices like oil falling this week and you see metals also falling this week.
• 2:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: And this is a really rare situation.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: You usually don't have metals, energy, crypto, and stocks all crashing collectively together for about a week's straight.
• 3:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's rare.
• 3:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Some of these multiple weeks in a row.
• 3:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's really weird.
• 3:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: odd and rare activity.
• 3:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: For a while, you had oil moving higher and then maybe risk gases would move lower or vice versa.
• 3:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Typically, you know, in the past, people like to look at metals is maybe a little bit of a hedge.
• 3:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: They'd become a little bit more risk gone.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you just have everything here moving in a pretty odd manner.
• 3:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: That I think the average person is probably finding confusing.
• 3:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to repeat that you have stocks, crypto, metals, and energy, all kind of moving to the downside here.
• 3:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so it's like, OK, where do I look then?
• 3:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because I know here in the crypto space, we see this happening on Bitcoin.
• 3:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: We see the new lows come in and like, oh, you know,
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Why is Bitcoin doing this?
• 3:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it's true, you know, Bitcoin has been underperforming.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, in the last week or so, there was really almost, I don't want to say no safe haven, but almost no safe haven.
• 4:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: If like the four major asset classes were all collectively kind of heading down together.
• 4:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I put this in between a rock and a hard place for sure.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've kind of moving back into the lows as well, 1500.
• 4:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have a salana here, not quite going to new lows, but, you know, selling off and seeing a really big rally here today.
• 4:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: So at least you're getting a little bit of optimism and overperformance out of salana.
• 4:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: XRP definitely underperformer here as it's going into new cycle lows, and it actually came to the one dollar area.
• 4:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: For the first time since, man, the end of 2024.
• 4:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: So about a year and a half.
• 4:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've seen a couple of other big kind of performers here.
• 4:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: I know HyperLickwood has been a big one that we like to talk about.
• 4:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm a big band of this one.
• 4:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: I know Hunter is we talk about it quite a bit, but seeing a huge bounce off yesterday's low.
• 4:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: bounce from low to high of day of around 11 and a half percent.
• 5:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: And even now you can see it trying to make a push to the upside off this 50 day moving average.
• 5:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: So what are the charts telling us here before we move on?
• 5:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because there's a lot of fundamental things to talk about.
• 5:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think the charts here, they put us in a tough spot.
• 5:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, in my very long term optimistic, yes, you know, that hasn't changed.
• 5:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: So when I say what I'm about to kind of talk about, I want that to kind of be the center point, which is that, you know, I'm not talking a year out of two years out.
• 5:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm still very much, you know, wanting to buy the dip with that time frame in mind.
• 5:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: What I'm not going to say is, hey, maybe the next day, the next week, the next month,
• 5:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: little bit more uncertain here, you know what you get is a test of the lows, a lower swing high and a big rejection back to the lows, lower high back to the lows again, it really does look as if pressure is building towards the downside and maybe what that could mean is that we might need to move lower.
• 6:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now is it a guarantee?
• 6:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, you know, obviously not.
• 6:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's no guarantees in this stuff.
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: But when I see kind of a push to the lows, a massive lower high push to the lows, another lower high back to the lows push it's clear like the sellers are really kind of in control of this market and every little attempt that the bulls have to go back to the upside they're just getting immediately smacked by the sellers and the bears and it's pushing us back down.
• 6:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: So not a good
• 6:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: great look in the shorter term.
• 6:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, we'll see what happens.
• 6:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we touched this for the third time and we bounce.
• 6:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: But when I see this kind of behavior on a chart, I'm thinking, hey, I want to be buckled up, at least for the idea that, hey, we could see a little bit more downside here.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's something that's on the table.
• 6:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I'm not saying, I had someone texted me this morning.
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: He's like, dude, do you think we're heading to 20k next?
• 6:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, where do people get these numbers from?
• 6:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: I had someone tell me 10k, I had someone tell me sub 10k, and getting 20k, and I think they just pull these numbers off of like, acts or social media, or, you know, out of their rear end.
• 7:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, but my answer there is no like when I say we could head a lower my thought is hey we could go into the 50s If you get a really big flush, maybe the high 40s, but I'm thinking probably somewhere in the 50s and then maybe we see what happens if we do even get it Um, I think these talks of like 10 20 25 k I think they're a little bit blown out of proportion and the bears are getting ahead of themselves
• 7:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I'm keeping an eye on this over here.
• 7:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have seen some, again, some more oversold ones like Solana, like Avay, like, you know, hyper liquid and Venice, some of these things bouncing pretty well here back to the upside.
• 7:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: off of some of these recent lows and this is one that I don't talk about a lot but stable over here has been just maintaining a beautiful uptrend.
• 7:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I show all of these to show everyone that there is pockets of hope out there.
• 8:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: The charts right here, I can not looking.
• 8:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: Not looking horrible, not looking great.
• 8:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'd say they're leaning a little bit to towards the side of making me wanna just kind of sit on my hands.
• 8:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's the way that I'm looking at playing this.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I wanna be a buyer of the dip should we go lower than here.
• 8:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm just making sure that, hey, I'm not fully levered up on this stage of the market.
• 8:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not fully diversified in the altcoins here.
• 8:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: I have less altcoin exposure.
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I have dry powder on the side lines
• 8:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: We go lower, then I really do want to be buying the dip.
• 8:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think we're going to be at a great buy the dip area.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we'll show a screenshot to kind of to work or straight this later and visualize it for all of you.
• 8:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: But that's kind of my thought.
• 8:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sitting on my hands, I want to have dry powder.
• 8:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Should we go lower, I want to be buying the dip.
• 8:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: I will be buying the dip.
• 8:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: But right now, I'm a little bit more conservative with how I'm looking at this market.
• 8:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's kind of my approach here to you going hunter.
• 9:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: Awesome hunter.
• 9:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: So having hunter here is kind of my thought is getting two different perspectives.
• 9:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: So obviously, crypto 101 and all of us together jointly were long-term bulls, but inside this type of volatility and type of market, it's always good to get different opinions.
• 9:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I say this on the show all the time is like, that's what I love having
• 9:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: You know, Brendan, we've got Hunter.
• 9:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: We've got Bryce.
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: If you're tuning into the summits, you know, row hit and we've got obviously Brian and Joe come on the show all the time.
• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, this is one of those episodes where I'm sourcing, you know, multiple thoughts, multiple big brains here.
• 9:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, Hunter, Hunter's a technical analysis guru himself.
• 9:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, let's have him pull up the charts, give you some thoughts, and then we will, uh,
• 9:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: any questions in the chat happy to take those and then we have a pretty big rundown sheet so hunter you know take it uh you know a little five minute breakdown or whatever you got for us and then we can discuss and hit the sheet.
• 9:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: Certainly thanks for that guys and wonderful analysis.
• 9:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: Brendan as always and you know Brendan and I actually have a pretty similar viewpoint here.
• 9:58
  [SPEAKER_02]: uh... we've been both identify and this is a possible another low to sweep below sixty thousand and the fifty eight thousand level being really really really important and i'll show you just some reasons why really we're looking for this whole cycle really began from twenty twenty two the fifteen thousand dollar low so looking from that low all the way up to our october twenty twenty five high
• 10:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: We can see all of this price action and kind of all the volume levels.
• 10:23
  [SPEAKER_02]: And if you've watched our volume profile video on YouTube and this will be very very familiar with you about this analysis that I'm about to kind of employer.
• 10:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: So right now, you'll notice that really when we decided to make new lows come back to 60k is when we got back below this 73,000 level.
• 10:42
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, why is that important?
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: Because this whole range volume profile lies looking at this histogram right here.
• 10:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: We have this massive node of consolidation where a lot of this volume transacted back at the end of 2024.
• 10:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: So when we came back into this range, we were really going to watch what these volume levels were doing if they were going to be supportive or resistant of price.
• 11:03
  [SPEAKER_02]: Unfortunately, you can see that that breakdown, this is a weekly chart happened at the beginning of the month,
• 11:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: right down below the value area higher around 72 to 73K, which happens to be a very important level that's going to be close to some in your V-wops and some other levels, but nonetheless, this brought us back into this whole range.
• 11:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: And so we've seen as we've gone below, we've come back below this massive level of volume and our low down here is actually at the other other
• 11:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: You'll notice recently in the more near term, if I just take a line and I look at this kind of note right here, you'll see that I'm sorry up here, you'll see that our recent when we took the low came back down to about 59,000 we had a short term rally for about two weeks.
• 11:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: up into 67 to 68,000.
• 11:56
  [SPEAKER_02]: We retested this node and it was a bit of a bearish retest.
• 12:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, of course, I'm long-term bullish, but this is a bit of a signifier that we would come a little bit lower and maybe try to see value.
• 12:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: to like mid 50s or high 50s is where we're at right now because we did get that rejection.
• 12:13
  [SPEAKER_02]: We wanted to see a reclaim of this level to continue structure back to the upside.
• 12:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: Unfortunately, we didn't get that.
• 12:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: So now, what are we looking at?
• 12:22
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well, we've touched the 200 weekly moving average.
• 12:25
  [SPEAKER_02]: We haven't closed below it yet.
• 12:26
  [SPEAKER_02]: So that's important because once we do close below it, that opens up maybe a little bit of a deeper pullback.
• 12:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: Nonetheless, we have our linear trend line, this white dotted line coming up right here, coalescing with another level that I like to look at all the time, which is part of the Fibonacci retracement at the 0.618.
• 12:46
  [SPEAKER_02]: The golden ratio, you'll hear about it all the time.
• 12:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: But where is that level?
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_02]: That's at 57800.
• 12:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: Let's call it 58 even, as well as the long term anchored volume rate average price.
• 12:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: from the $15,000 cycle load, right here, if 50K.
• 13:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: So a lot of levels coalescing at one.
• 13:05
  [SPEAKER_02]: And then also if I just look at the RSI, you'll notice on the weekly here, we have been trying to create a divergent.
• 13:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now we were hoping we would maybe get it on this last low when we first flush close 60k, but we didn't.
• 13:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: So now we're actually kind of trying to reconnect and create this divergence with a little bit more price action going forward.
• 13:27
  [SPEAKER_02]: So on the high time frame there, at least call it the weekly, we are seeing momentum to the downside, definitely jwindle.
• 13:34
  [SPEAKER_02]: And hopefully this divergence will be the one that plays out for at least a move back up to the higher end of this range.
• 13:40
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, nothing is really confirmed until we reclaim the 67-68 level, as you can tell, that's a massive area of resistance and support, unfortunately, being resistance at the moment.
• 13:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, if I just zoom in a bit on the daily, you'll notice something actually kind of interesting.
• 13:56
  [SPEAKER_02]: So, psychologically, price likes to go to hold numbers.
• 14:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well, this is the Coinbase pair, and you'll notice, and this is one reason why I didn't think the lowest
• 14:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: was $60,000 and $1.
• 14:12
  [SPEAKER_02]: So it's pretty much exactly on there.
• 14:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: But where is our low right now?
• 14:16
  [SPEAKER_02]: Exactly 58,000.
• 14:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: So it gives me a little bit of hesitation.
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_02]: If this is going to be the low, but right here, it is showing science that this could be possibly a short term.
• 14:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: bottom to maybe move back up higher and we will be monitoring that to see kind of how the week closes the weekly candle on Sunday of course for spot and then today actually in a few hours we'll get Bitcoin futures so PTC one exclamation point we'll see if that actually decides to close back above 60 k because that would be a short term signal that we might get a little bit of a week in rally as we do see things turn green across the board on my watch list at least.
• 14:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: But nonetheless, we are also creating that daily divergence on the daily.
• 15:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: So if we were to make a little low right here, this could be a nice swing low signature.
• 15:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, it won't really be confirmed until we get at least back above this 63, 500 level, which is, you know, these prior lows right here.
• 15:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: That would be our first kind of area of reclamation that we'd want.
• 15:26
  [SPEAKER_02]: And then, of course, another move above this last rejection in which if we do start to get structure like this, well, this could bode well for at least a July, you know, movement upwards.
• 15:38
  [SPEAKER_02]: Pressure remains to the downside.
• 15:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: Funding rates are still a little bit positive, which means the lungs can still kind of get flushed out.
• 15:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: We do still have levels below us here in the 56-57 level area that could get hit, but right now prices definitely forming a possible nice swing or swing low formation here.
• 15:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: So the daily does move back up about, you know, above 60K for the week, then I could see this as a short-term rally opportunity as you can tell we have a bunch of confluence here, but once again, there are block pockets of brightness and they happen to be revolved around a lot of the decentralized exchanges as Brendan mentioned hyper liquid will another one.
• 16:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: is lit or lighter is actually one that we've written about in the coin of the week for the crimp nation fan out there and it is nicely getting a move up about 12% today.
• 16:31
  [SPEAKER_02]: So in tandem with the hyperlick with the decentralized exchange per decks narrative one reason we like these kind of fundamentally is that even in moments of speculation when it's either up or down so we're in
• 16:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: platforms are still garnering revenue.
• 16:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're still a crude revenue and this goes back to the token holders because they make money off trading fees.
• 16:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: So, and a lot of times higher trading volume can happen when there's more volatility, which happens to be when there is downside.
• 17:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: So, we're seeing lighter.
• 17:04
  [SPEAKER_02]: showing relative strength in a market where Bitcoin's going like this, we're looking for kind of stuff that's going like this, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, dare I say higher low right here and here we go for some continuation.
• 17:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: So I'll really like lighter here for continuation if we get a move back above the highs, I'd want to see this, you know, value your high and this point of control from inception.
• 17:27
  [SPEAKER_02]: So this range from
• 17:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: Either way, this looks like it's trying to break out back again to our upper targets where there's really no resistance until this 0.382 fibonacci retracement, which happens to be in this node.
• 17:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: And then above that, there's a very minimal volume until we get up to the 0.5, which is back into this shelf.
• 17:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: So this is one that has a good asymmetric.
• 17:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: return profile to the upside on that we've been watching so pockets of gold and kind of a sea of darkness here, but nonetheless the tides are turning, they are shifting in many ways and even for us, you know, here the team, you guys heard me talk about it fundamentally, but what I was saying here is that we're making higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows.
• 18:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: higher highs, higher lows, trying to break back out of the value of high and the point of control, which is this range from 160 to 170 with not a lot of volume until this 0.3 to retracement from the high all-time high to the low into this node.
• 18:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: So around 216 is the next price we're looking at and we've written about this also.
• 18:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: The newsletter is the targets and then the next major target
• 18:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: upside potential looking for a lot of things really when I'm looking for here is just market structure trend to the upside when big coins going like this and it doesn't have to be much more difficult than that just following the trend.
• 18:52
  [SPEAKER_02]: But we're getting a great breakout today up 12.3% right now.
• 18:55
  [SPEAKER_02]: So.
• 18:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: That's the two things I'm kind of looking at here guys.
• 18:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: I'll kick it back to y'all.
• 19:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, great breakdown.
• 19:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm actually going to jump around on the sheet fellas here.
• 19:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: So let's let's find those pockets of positivity that you guys were talking about because again, you guys bring your expertise.
• 19:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: I bring what I'm seeing and they kind of converge in their own fun way.
• 19:14
  [SPEAKER_03]: So what I'm going to pull up here is the gray scales.
• 19:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: Top 15 revenue producing cryptos.
• 19:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: And so what can you see here?
• 19:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: Hyperliquid at the top, you go down.
• 19:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to talk about Ava in a second.
• 19:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: You've been in the community.
• 19:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: You've seen us talk about sky.
• 19:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: You've seen it talk about aerodrome.
• 19:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: You just went over lighter.
• 19:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: It was a coin of the week recently, Hunter said,
• 19:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: So here's what's really interesting about this.
• 19:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: Number one, if you're somebody who is a part of the community, you've been or listened to the show, we've talked about a lot of these.
• 19:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: But again, to get that first info kind of those first calls, those coins of the week, those deep dive write ups of understanding why we're talking about this stuff six, you know, six, eight.
• 19:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: eight weeks, months plus before you're going to see these type of tweets.
• 19:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's inside the community.
• 19:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: And if you like the technical analysis session, we've got a plethora of links to get more involved.
• 20:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: So check down in the description below.
• 20:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: We've got dollar trials.
• 20:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: If you want to try out the newsletter to get the coin of the week, and obviously we have some trading stuff.
• 20:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: So Brendan's cohort is open this week.
• 20:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I put a link down there for that if you're interested in this week.
• 20:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: next week.
• 20:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, basically we always put the information link.
• 20:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: But this time you can just go down sign up if it's something that you're interested in.
• 20:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: Sign up and you're going to be included in the one that starts a week from Monday.
• 20:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: Sorry, thank you, Brendan.
• 20:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then I know just, you know, we have a lot of dollar trials there, momentum, money makers if you want to try crimp nations.
• 20:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, check those out to get more involved.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now's the time to stay educated more than ever.
• 20:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: But I thought it was really interesting to hear you say later.
• 20:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: I was like, all right, we just got to jump to this.
• 20:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: So that's what I think a lot of these things that are doing good.
• 20:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: They have real revenues.
• 20:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: You can kind of see the revenue multiples 37 kind of sticks out for uni swap.
• 20:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's a pretty damn high hyper liquid at 15.
• 20:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's kind of maybe 15 17 is is a, you know, normal tech stock range might be what 18 20 sometimes on the higher and up in the 30s and then is interesting to see those revenue multiples so low on some of those.
• 21:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I think it's a sentiment of that's where the money's flowing is you got to have some backing of some revenue and you got to bring some value to the market.
• 21:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: And as the guy said earlier, you know, the volatility is opportunity for these type of projects.
• 21:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I saw a lot of stuff on Ove guys this week.
• 21:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: Standard Charter was coming out and said Ove could 50x.
• 21:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: Uh, it's a 3500 by 2030 bullish take from standard charter, uh, and then I just saw that and I brought it up just because I saw crack and took a, took a 15% stake and then Stani who we've had on the, uh, we've had on the podcast before, who's the lead over at Avay has been making some noise on the timeline as well.
• 21:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: So it's always interesting to kind of take in this information and then when it cross pollinates perfectly from what you guys were seeing on the charts, I thought it was worth.
• 21:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: worth bringing up.
• 21:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: So any any thoughts on that on the thesis of the revenue, making projects versus, you know, maybe the ones that don't, I thought that was cool for all that to be tied in.
• 22:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I just finished a really big write-up with another analyst on the team row hit about this exact topic and what we've seen in our own research and from a lot of the guests that we've actually talked to from the summits and the podcast and other things is that there is an increasingly larger emphasis and focus on projects that are succeeding in making money.
• 22:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Those are two different things, right?
• 22:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because you can do one and maybe it can mean the other.
• 22:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I'm talking about, when I say like success or that they are succeeding, I'm talking, you know, are they actually accomplishing their mission and are they expanding?
• 22:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Are they seeing more activity?
• 22:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: Are they seeing more users?
• 22:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: Are they getting more clients?
• 22:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: some of the time that will also lead to them actually producing money, but I think you need one the other or both.
• 23:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's been an increasingly bigger focus from investors and traders alike.
• 23:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so I think it is important to look at this stuff.
• 23:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you look at a lot of the projects that have run this year, a lot of them have had some source of decent revenue or decent success.
• 23:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, they're either expanding and becoming more active and more used or they're making a lot of
• 23:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, just off the top of my head, you have hyper-liquid, you've had, um, near, you've had, um, I know it like Venice has actually been a really good example of that too.
• 23:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sky, can't time.
• 23:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Uh, the list goes on.
• 23:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's a number of them out there alongside some of the ones on this list.
• 23:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I think it really depends on the project.
• 23:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Some making money will be more important.
• 23:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Others gaining activity in having usage will be more important.
• 23:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: and I think a lot of the projects that have been around for a while and they're not seeing that, well, people are becoming frustrated and they're looking elsewhere.
• 24:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: The caveat here and I think a lot of people will miss this is just because a project is making money.
• 24:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: and just because it might even be seeing activity, but I would especially say just because the project's making money and having good revenue does not necessarily mean that the token benefits from it.
• 24:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's been the issue for a lot of these older projects is that they can make money, they can see revenue, there's a lot of money transacting behind the scenes, but the token holders don't benefit nearly at all from it.
• 24:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes not at all, just nothing.
• 24:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so those projects, I think people are looking at
• 24:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, why would I own this?
• 24:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, at least if you're owning a stock, you are getting a fractional ownership of the company, maybe you get it, dividend, but you have ownership with these tokens, it's just not really the case.
• 24:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have the tokens and maybe it's used for like, a little bit of voting power, but if there's not some sort of revenue share or buyback or just something, right?
• 24:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's a million different ways to go about it.
• 25:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: But if there is not something that incentivizes you to be a holder,
• 25:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Then a lot of people I think are kind of starting to ditch those ones.
• 25:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, not always, but I do think that that has been a more popular trend.
• 25:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, Tiva to answer your question.
• 25:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's very important and you're seeing a bigger emphasis placed on this.
• 25:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I just think that we continue to head in that direction.
• 25:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: yeah it's it's the maturity of the space right when you have the black rocks and we've talked about uh Franklin crypto us all friend friend of the show yesterday uh Chris Chris Perkins was on CNBC I pulled I pulled that tweet out yesterday so again we had this this is the maturation of the space right we go from when I first started Brendan remember we would have
• 25:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: We would have these guests on the podcast and they'd be like, oh, we're Anna and we're not going to show our face and say, oh, okay, like you have a good project, so we'll talk to you.
• 25:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: But like I always thought that was, you know, a unique part of the space and understood it.
• 25:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: But like that's not going to fly as you get into, you know, hundred of million dollars trillion dollar market caps.
• 26:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's not going to fly.
• 26:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then so a great example is like I'm doing my work the other day or yesterday and the afternoon, I was like, oh,
• 26:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: friend of the show Chris Burkins we just had him on the podcast a couple weeks ago and so you know if you're coming on crypto 101 you want to talk about investing in crypto you don't you know you're getting called on to CNBC that this is this maturation process black rock a Franklin crypto all the other big names that are getting involved here Morgan Stanley with the ETFs and all that
• 26:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: And an interesting transition here of thought is we talked about how Bitcoin always led it was like okay Bitcoin's a leading instrument sometimes, right?
• 26:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's like as it goes up while the stock market will follow and then Bitcoin kind of fell off as we know and it was like Oh, that correlation doesn't work because the stock market kept flying But I just think it's really interesting if you really look underneath the hood because it's such an interesting time in the markets
• 26:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: As it always is, but I don't know, this feels a little bit historical with this chips run, the A, I run, that's just my opinion, but starting to look around, like it felt like we were kind of alone in this down draft a little bit right.
• 27:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're watching everybody else have fun, but you're starting to look around and everybody's starting not everybody, but there's some pockets that are truly starting to follow South Korea.
• 27:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: South Korea has been getting halted recently for some down drafts.
• 27:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: The metals you mentioned at Brendan Gold down 29% silver down 52% from it's high I remember me and you did a live Brendan that Friday where it was like the end of silver As we knew it a one day swing it was like 20% down in one day Again, these are precious metals which are supposed to be you know savings vehicles the gold the metals are falling down And then and then even I guess where's this one on the sheet the mag seven is
• 27:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: I didn't save that tweet.
• 27:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: There was something with the mag seven.
• 27:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: It was, you know, I think Google itself is down 18 at this month.
• 27:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm seeing meta down 20 plus percent Amazon.
• 27:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: All these kind of Microsoft, you know, the mag seven are down.
• 28:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then obviously we know, I'm going to hand this off to you.
• 28:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: Because I want to find that graphic.
• 28:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to try and find that graphic.
• 28:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: But what do you guys,
• 28:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: Do you agree with that?
• 28:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's interesting how Bitcoin fell out of bed.
• 28:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: And now minus the chip trade, which again remains to be seen where it is today, but everything starting to kind of trend a little bit lower.
• 28:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it is.
• 28:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you mentioned South Korea.
• 28:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: South Korea halted their, they're basically their version of the SMP or their version of their industry.
• 28:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: It halted twice this week, TV.
• 28:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it needs to fall at least 8% to halt and it halted twice, which is crazy.
• 28:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: Um, so it's the decline from all-time highs, continue Brennan, but you can speak to that.
• 28:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: I got the stats there for you.
• 28:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
• 28:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
• 28:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, I mean, this one's great, too.
• 28:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I mean, South Korea's tech sector, which is driven largely by Samsung and SK Heinix, um, two big tech plays.
• 28:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Their market halting down 8% could you imagine the S&P 500 going down 8%?
• 29:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it would be bad.
• 29:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: panic.
• 29:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: We had one drop that was almost like that not too long ago.
• 29:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, but that's bad.
• 29:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Having it happened twice a week would be crazy.
• 29:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Granted, it's a little bit different over there, but it's going to be a little bit more volatile and it has been extremely volatile.
• 29:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, there's fears coming up to the surface here all over the place and it's not just crypto.
• 29:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and then the final graph I had teed up was like will this continue so you can see kind of the semi conductor ETF compared to the mag seven there there's been crazy out performance and definitely again this is why you probably not personal financial advice but you want to be diversified you want to take some different sectors but the out performance here is crazy and so the question is does this continue so what happens here and again this is
• 29:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: But more of just a theory of mine, it's like, OK, your hyper scalars, your microsoft, your Amazon's, your matters are just pouring capex, capex's investment.
• 29:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: You're just pouring money into this.
• 29:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: And now they're starting to get penalized.
• 29:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: So they're saying, you know, the stock market saying, hey, you're spending all this money and your free cash flow is coming down.
• 30:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: But the semiconductor and the chips ETF are flying because you're spending all this money.
• 30:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: So where to meet either Amazon,
• 30:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: You know, Apple Apple just announced the raising iPhone prices and Mac prices because the chip shorts.
• 30:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: So if all these companies are investing into AI, when does the results come?
• 30:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: Because if the results don't come, I think what you're going to see again in theory in the next six months year, you're going to start to see that capex valve get a little tighter.
• 30:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: And when that cat backs valve gets a little tighter, that semi-conductor ETF is gonna start to come back down.
• 30:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: So either you're gonna see mag seven, kind of raise the bar and follow what the semi-conductors are gonna see a semi-conductor's come in.
• 30:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: I don't know which way it's gonna go.
• 30:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: But I feel like that's kind of where the market is and makes sense for if you bring it circle it back to crypto.
• 30:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: For Bitcoin, it's like, well, what's the catalyst here of understanding what the next market moves are for liquidity?
• 30:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: It feels like maybe there's some chop coming down.
• 30:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: And we gotta see how this gets played out.
• 30:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: thoughts.
• 30:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's a great point.
• 31:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: Here's the issue, too, with all these firms that are increasing their capex, well, how do they get the money to do the capex?
• 31:07
  [SPEAKER_02]: They've got to raise debt.
• 31:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: We've got rates that are going up on every tenor of the curve.
• 31:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're going to start having issues that are higher interest expense down the road.
• 31:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: So I think that will constrict liquidity a bit.
• 31:16
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, I see this more as a broad deritioning with an AI tilt, the way I look at that is that we've had
• 31:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: outperformance in AI memory like the socks this I I share some conductor ETF relative to Bitcoin but you're also seeing retail money market funds and cash cash vehicles actually increases well while that's happening.
• 31:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: So what that means is that there's not a huge rotation necessarily there's a bit of a broad derisking as and but with an AI tilt is the way I look at it.
• 31:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: So, yeah, a little bit of liquidity, constriction, based on now with rates going up, that's never been too well for Bitcoin, which is a very liquidy, constrained, vehicle.
• 31:58
  [SPEAKER_02]: So, I think down the road, that's what we're going to kind of see is there is going to be a bit of a chop, but we're going to see a rotation.
• 32:03
  [SPEAKER_02]: I was actually,
• 32:04
  [SPEAKER_02]: looking at it chart earlier that relationship of Bitcoin to the AI memory stocks and it's at like multi multi year lows at extremely oversold levels and places where there would be a turn.
• 32:16
  [SPEAKER_02]: So I do think a shift is upon us going through to the end of the year, at least to the last quarter.
• 32:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's great point.
• 32:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: Brendan, any final thoughts on this topic before I transition this on?
• 32:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, I'm nothing else.
• 32:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think we hit on it.
• 32:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: Great.
• 32:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: I want to give a shout-out to the chat.
• 32:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: We got some people from New Hampshire, live-free or die in New Hampshire, had some great times in Newfound Lake with the family up in New Hampshire.
• 32:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: We've got Liverpool, shout-out to Liverpool, we're across the pond today, boys.
• 32:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: They're dealing with the heat wave.
• 32:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: The parts of Europe getting some historical heat, so have a glass of water.
• 32:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: And a lot of those people, they don't like A.C. over there.
• 32:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: I don't know.
• 32:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: I don't know if me and Brendan could survive over in Europe.
• 32:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: We appreciate everybody joining in from around the world.
• 32:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let us know where you're from.
• 32:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: Give this video a like and if you're new subscribe, it really helps us grow the chicken.
• 33:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: As always, check out the links below if you want to get more involved with the community fellas.
• 33:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to start with a clip here just to see if our next segment.
• 33:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let's take a listen.
• 33:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
• 33:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that's the engineering.
• 33:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: I give you the upside.
• 33:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have no downside and I pay you a dividend while you wait to get rich.
• 33:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.
• 33:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: I think the upside, you have no downside and I pay you a dividend as you wait to get rich.
• 33:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: These are the type of quotes fellas that are leading us to a law firm, potentially launching a probe into strategy for potential securities violation.
• 33:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: There is a law firm that seems to be preparing possibly a class action lawsuit against Michael Sailer.
• 33:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: The microstrategy saga goes on, that's going to be our next topic, the toss it around and break down, so there's a whispers of this lawsuit.
• 33:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I guess, in the sense of securities, they're pulling his marketing and his quotes, you know, like that saying, hey, you guaranteed, you wait, you have no downside.
• 34:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: You know, that's something that again, we're not financial advisors, we can't give personal financial advice, but you know, I don't think any fiduciary would ever say, hey, you have no downside unless it's, I guess, a traditional bond that's backed by the guy's about as close as you can get to staying that.
• 34:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: Um, so there's a lot of different clips.
• 34:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: I know there was also a famous sailor AI video that was like, you know, some AI person in the pool.
• 34:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: I retired.
• 34:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: I just did stretch.
• 34:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: So there's a lot to break down here.
• 34:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: There's a lot going on on the timeline.
• 34:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: It is very negative towards Michael sailor.
• 34:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: It is very negative towards, um, micro strategy and stretch and maybe rightfully so because right now, uh, it's down 28%.
• 34:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: from its $100 peg.
• 34:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're talking about stretch, which is the preferred stock dividend play.
• 34:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: So Brendan, let me pass it off to you first.
• 34:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: Get your thoughts teed up, happy to pull up other information or tweets, but we want to kick this one around because the temperatures heated up.
• 35:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: We've been monitoring it, but the temperatures heating up on on sale right now.
• 35:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, we'll let it be known to you.
• 35:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is the third time that we're talking about it.
• 35:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: I have been a skeptic.
• 35:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'd call me a hate or call me a skeptic, right?
• 35:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's not of Michael's sailor necessarily, or it's not of strategy.
• 35:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like, I'll really always liked Michael's sailor.
• 35:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: I always like strategy.
• 35:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm what I don't like is some of his recent,
• 35:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: change in stances.
• 35:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: That makes sense.
• 35:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't like how he's kind of shifted away from his original mission, right?
• 35:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: This idea that he was going to accumulate, I think the idea of accumulating Bitcoin at opportunistic prices and holding it for the long term and using it as a strategy.
• 35:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Very much in favor of that.
• 35:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think
• 35:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: what he's done here and what I've been a skeptic of is trying to get over positioned over levered, trying to get too much market share and just, you know, overall just getting a little bit too ambitious with this, right?
• 36:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think when you're launching these other products, I was kind of like whatever, like, I don't really care.
• 36:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: It is what it is, right?
• 36:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're a business at the end of the day.
• 36:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: What I really didn't like was SCRC because as I've explained, it doesn't
• 36:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Based on off of any model that we've ever seen before, which I guess doesn't mean that it can't work.
• 36:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: I just think it makes it a lot less likely because how are they paying dividends?
• 36:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, they're not produced.
• 36:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're not paying their dividends based off of the cash that they're making through the business model.
• 36:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're pretty much unable to do that, or they can't do that, or at least they won't do that in the very least.
• 36:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: So how are they paying these dividends?
• 36:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, they're paying these dividends by selling off.
• 36:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin, but their whole business model has always been by Bitcoin never sell, hold it for the long term, why would you sell if, you know, it has this 30% year return that they always boast about.
• 36:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, again, there's some nuance in there and he says, oh, what we're doing this products that we can raise more money to buy more Bitcoin because we're going to borrow it like 11%.
• 37:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: and then our 30% annual return rate that we're expecting will make up the difference plus the sales and yada yada.
• 37:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: The issue becomes what if that doesn't happen and what if you get in at a bad time?
• 37:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like they were buying a lot of Bitcoin at higher rates towards the highs.
• 37:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, they were getting themselves over-positioned over leveraged and I think that this is their way of trying to raise more capital.
• 37:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: And
• 37:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, we'll see, but I think what they've done here is damaged their reputation a little bit.
• 37:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to sound too pessimistic because as I'm listening to myself, it sounds worse than it probably is.
• 37:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: My, again, my concern here is my loyalty lies to the crypto space first.
• 37:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want Bitcoin to succeed.
• 37:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want crypto to succeed, and my fear is that, and it's not an imminent threat, but my fear is that his
• 38:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe more volatile actions can have repercussions that impacts me, it impacts Bitcoin, it impacts crypto as a whole, and all that we had to do to avoid this kind of thing, and maybe it gets worse, maybe it gets better, but all we had to do with to avoid this was not kind of get over-leveraged and not do some of these things, just be patient.
• 38:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like if you would have followed the original goal and just bought Bitcoin on the dips, you know, not have to sell Bitcoin all the sudden, like all these different things, then we wouldn't even be in this kind of situation.
• 38:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now they're gonna have to pay out what almost a billion dollars a year in dividends and growing.
• 38:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: They said it was supposed to stay around a hundred bucks.
• 38:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's falling to all time lows.
• 38:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: As that happens, they lose trust, they lose, um,
• 38:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, kind of the respect that people had, a little bit of the loyalty as well.
• 38:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: Cause now all of a sudden they've sold Bitcoin and this thing that's supposed to be stable paying them a dividends is dropping.
• 38:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, if it's dropping, then they're supposed to at least raise the yield that people are earning, but I'm not sure that they're in a place to do that.
• 39:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: So are they gonna be paying out even more as it's falling?
• 39:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: We'll see, but I think there's been a little bit of reputational damage here.
• 39:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: And again, I don't think this is like,
• 39:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: a nuclear bomb in the near-term or anything like that, and it might not ever really even come to anything like that.
• 39:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, my fear is that one man getting over ambitious and potentially over-loveraged, um,
• 39:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: can harm the rest of us and can harm the rest of the space.
• 39:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: We've seen it too many times before where you have someone do something stupid and everyone gets affected, right?
• 39:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Tara Luna, Alameda, FTX, you know, bit connects probably a bad example, but you've seen like a bunch of different times where you've had like these people that are in charge of larger groups tied to crypto and then they get, they do something maybe
• 39:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: harms everyone else.
• 39:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: So that's my big fear here.
• 39:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, perfect.
• 39:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: Perfect concept there because a friend of the show, wayward 3000 just said in the comments.
• 40:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: Sailors experiencing the classic main character downfall are common in crypto cycles, which is exactly what you just said.
• 40:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: I thought that was a great comment from a way worth $3,000, or anything to add on this.
• 40:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: What's your tape?
• 40:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: We obviously knew her to our team, so we haven't, you know, rode the ups and downs with you before and covered the sailor stuff.
• 40:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: So give us a take.
• 40:27
  [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I don't think this boes well for the strategy stock, at least what people don't really remember is that
• 40:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: Buy and prefer stock gives you a higher seniority on a claim on the assets under any insolvency.
• 40:40
  [SPEAKER_02]: So you have your leans on the company.
• 40:42
  [SPEAKER_02]: You prefer stock in your equity.
• 40:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well, this is above the equity trunch.
• 40:46
  [SPEAKER_02]: This is not going well.
• 40:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's not trading like a bond for you to get an all-in return that's net positive.
• 40:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well, this has to come up now over 60% to get back to peg when you're getting paid, you know, an annualized yield of about 13%.
• 40:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now,
• 41:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: But none of that matters if the principle is going down and you're not returning the same amount of principle.
• 41:06
  [SPEAKER_02]: So I don't like this at all.
• 41:07
  [SPEAKER_02]: I don't like the schematics of it all.
• 41:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: I don't like the whirlwind flywheel effect of it.
• 41:12
  [SPEAKER_02]: I don't like that.
• 41:13
  [SPEAKER_02]: This is above the claims that normal equity holders get that it's actually down 28% in strategy itself, the stock isn't is down.
• 41:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think that boads as something fairly negative down the road for this strategy company overall.
• 41:31
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of it is run by, you know, the aura or the eager gore, or the magnetic magic of sailor, I would say that's very rampant and crypto.
• 41:41
  [SPEAKER_02]: Let's just be real about that.
• 41:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: And, and so I think, you know, as long as this preferred equity model continues to break down, I think we're going to see something.
• 41:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: of the regulation issue down the road regarding this.
• 41:55
  [SPEAKER_02]: But long-term, I don't think this will shake out all Bitcoin investors.
• 41:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think it'll be seen as like a bad actor in a good land.
• 42:04
  [SPEAKER_02]: Something on the case akin to, you know, stuff that happened with FTAx.
• 42:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: And I'm not saying the same thing, but we had just had a bad actor, a flush out.
• 42:12
  [SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, crypto goes on regardless.
• 42:16
  [SPEAKER_02]: But no, I don't like this at all.
• 42:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think this is type of stuff that you can't just brush off.
• 42:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: It does kind of signal things that bind the scenes are breaking and Honestly, that's what I take, but I think it's actually a good thing in a way because these types of scenarios play out towards macro cycle lows.
• 42:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: So I'm finding that is, you know, that boats well for the future at least.
• 42:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: Great breakdown, appreciate your thoughts.
• 42:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'll say, bias, simply bias, and egotistical of me, obviously over the years, I've tried to get Michael sailor on the show, whether it treats DMs.
• 42:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: I had a great meme run when things were getting hot.
• 42:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: We had some fun memes in his replies.
• 42:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: He never came on, so I'm like, well, you know, a good for us.
• 43:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Because I think part of it is always everybody
• 43:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: podcast in the space that are obviously bigger than us that don't have the community behind it in the business that we do kind of having the educational community that we do, they're just content creators that have talked to him and I've covered, they never really pushed him like when he was rolling all this stuff out and again this is a Monday morning quarterback I have to say this because you know as somebody who's been at bar still I always got to say like call it like it is I would have loved that Michael Salon I would have loved for him to
• 43:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: But he didn't come on and so now I'm kind of watching and remembering how I watched all these interviews and was trying to take notes and like You know, you're going all these shows and nobody really pressed them that much.
• 43:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: You got pressed on live TV affair amount But those hits are so They're so quick right they're like three minute hits five minutes tops.
• 43:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: How much can you really cover and he's gone on these Huge YouTube and crypto podcast with real people in the space that a lot of people look up to and he never really got pressed that much and so you know
• 44:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: falls out of bed the wrong way you know those those those people might look back and say hey maybe I should have taken this a different way but maybe they're just all about the views boys and us at crypto 101 are about the education and the community and the family so if you're here give us a like toss it a thumbs up we really appreciate everybody going as we transition to have this subject I will read you one quote that I like to remind myself of every once in a while
• 44:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: Smartmen go broke three ways, liquor, ladies, and leverage.
• 44:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I've heard rumors of Michael Saylor's yacht down in Miami.
• 44:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: Oh, oh, we know he has leverage.
• 44:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I don't know.
• 44:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: I've been on a couple of yachts myself.
• 44:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: We all know what goes on there.
• 44:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I don't know how to see this.
• 44:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: Maybe clip that for a future clip to call back.
• 45:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: So liquor, ladies, love that.
• 45:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's the famous late, great, Charlie Munger.
• 45:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: I always like to remind myself of that clip everyone's in a while.
• 45:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let's end the show with some hope y'all.
• 45:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: We love to buy the dip boys.
• 45:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: We are dip buyers.
• 45:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: A George Costanza don't double dip, but we love the dip.
• 45:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let's pull up this chart.
• 45:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: Brendan, did you bring this one for us?
• 45:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I did.
• 45:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let's do it.
• 45:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, this is one that I think it's important to look back one, right?
• 45:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: Cause sometimes we get emotional, we get bearish on here.
• 45:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: We don't get bearish, but we talk about the bearish potential that there is, maybe even in the short term.
• 45:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: But the long term stays the same here, guys.
• 45:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Regardless of how we might look at the short term, you have to understand what the long term looks like.
• 45:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: And this is a good one from Christ in Bitcoin or Christ in BTC over on X.
• 45:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm sharing this chart, I believe it was with the last like 10 to 12 years of data, something like that.
• 45:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: But it says, hey, if you would have bought the dip at these pullback increments of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 percent, how much would your return rate be on average when you're later?
• 46:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: And what would your success rate or your win rate be when you're later, if you would have bought it, those pullback increments?
• 46:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, we're at 53 percent right now, right around 52, 53 percent.
• 46:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think at our low, we are 54%, so what if you're buying at a 50% or worse drawdown?
• 46:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well historically kind of going off this data, what this says is that your average win rate would have been 89.8% and you're
• 46:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: Excuse me.
• 46:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: Your average return rate would be 125%.
• 46:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if you're buying Bitcoin at a 50% drawdown or greater, your average win rate is going to be nearly 90% a year later, you'll be in the money positive and the average return rate when your later is 125%.
• 46:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if you can come in with nearly a 90% win rate and an average return of a 100%, like the odds are pretty freaking good.
• 46:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: What if we get the 60% well based on this data, it's saying that your average win rate one year later is 98.3%.
• 47:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: And your average return rate is even higher at 132%.
• 47:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of look at this as like the Goldilocks zone.
• 47:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Do I want to be buying Bitcoin at a 50 to 60% win rate or 70 which has 100% success rate based on historical data?
• 47:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Do I want to be done buying at a 50 to 60% drawdown?
• 47:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, but I want to make sure like Tilo said I'm not getting destroyed before the recovery tends to happen.
• 47:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people go in, they get over levered, they over size,
• 47:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, they just do it the wrong way, but if you're just looking at this with a longer term horizon saying, hey, the odds are based on historical data, if you're buying now, and maybe I shouldn't frame it that way, because nothing's financial advice, but the odds are if I'm buying now,
• 47:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: based on historical data, you know, it's saying, hey, about 90% plus are the odds that you'll be profitable a year later that I'll be profitable a year later.
• 48:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know about you guys.
• 48:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: I like those odds having a near 90 plus percent odds of success with an average return of over a hundred percent.
• 48:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's decent looking based on the historical data.
• 48:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now it's important to note,
• 48:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Just because there's that data, it can go wrong, right?
• 48:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: There is no guarantees.
• 48:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: So there's good evidence saying, hey, do you want to be along term buyer here for one, two years later?
• 48:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think the evidence for me is pointing towards yes, but that doesn't mean that it can't go wrong.
• 48:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: It has in the past, there's a reason that there's numbers are not 100% and I think that's something worth noting.
• 48:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: So there's always risk.
• 48:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's great point.
• 48:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: I told Brian personally.
• 48:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: I had my weekly buys going on down here.
• 48:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: Just, you know, a little smidge.
• 48:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: Just a sprinkle.
• 48:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: Just every and I don't think about it.
• 48:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's like, hey, yeah, it's it stinks down here.
• 48:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I'm not going to think about it.
• 48:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: Just, you know, lower lower lower lower the cost basis here.
• 49:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: This is a great chart and it's the old adage of not really timing the market but time in the market and we're at deep value and we bring in And I have spoke about this in a times like this is the value accumulation spot a little sprinkles on like on spot I like it down here definitely yeah I think we're all on the same page there not personal fans will vice just friends talking crypto and what they're doing
• 49:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'll pull up, I think, some brighter kind of to ride the back of this some good news.
• 49:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: So the Fed, we had our first Fed meeting with Kevin Morrison, who fed chair, was interesting.
• 49:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: You know, a lot of interesting information coming out of that of how he's going to operate the Fed.
• 49:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: And again, the Fed chair doesn't make the final decision, it's a committee, so it's a committee vote.
• 49:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: And there's been with the war and inflation everything from oil prices.
• 49:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: There's been a fear of like, oh, we've got a rate hike rate hike It feels like one of those things where it's the pendulum right started the year it was we're getting two three who knows maybe four rate cuts And then we obviously the war happens things change and now it's on the opposite we're getting one two rate hikes and so it feels like the pendulum swinging
• 50:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: a little bit violently uh... i might have to consult with my uh... betting market specialist Brian and i as we like to dabble in some of the bets here i don't know fellas at fifty three percent of a rate hike i personally right here uh... would take no i would take no on the uh... on the rate hike not saying that there's going to be a cut
• 50:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: but no on the rate hike.
• 50:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: And if anything, the Fed chair might talk markets down, but leave rates on change is kind of how I'm looking at the rest of the year, but with oil coming down and in theory, the straight being open who knows at this point, that tweet goes out every day.
• 50:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's closed, it's open, it's closed open.
• 50:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: But I think,
• 50:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: going into midterms politics politically like there's no there's no room for you know oil prices being above a hundred et cetera.
• 51:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, you're right, I think that with this as well, I'm kind of on board with taking the other side of this.
• 51:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you think about what we see recently with the most, you know, the latest Fed meeting that we got, which was Kevin Worsh's first one as Fed Chairman, they were going off of data that they had where oil was higher.
• 51:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you look at oil in the last two or so weeks,
• 51:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: Guys, it's in a free fall.
• 51:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oil has fallen here from around, I mean, what was it?
• 51:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm gonna pull it up, just on my end, I don't even have to show it on the screen, but we're looking at what oil was at on June 1st, the start of this month, just a couple of weeks ago.
• 51:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: It was at $96.97, we're now at $69 for oil.
• 51:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it has fallen, what is that?
• 51:55
  [SPEAKER_02]: From the thing is that level is the level where we started the war.
• 52:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's the exact same level.
• 52:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
• 52:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's a, I mean, it's a 30% drop since the start of this month.
• 52:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it's overall a 42% drop, which you're right, brings us back to where we were before a lot of this stuff even began.
• 52:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I think all the people that are yelling for inflation for yelling in there, they're screaming for rate hikes and they're saying all these things.
• 52:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think the data's gonna start going against that idea.
• 52:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've already started to see people and really get on board with this idea of rate hikes, but why are we talking about rate hikes?
• 52:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's largely due to energy and a lot of the stuff that you've seen come out as a result of the conflict over there.
• 52:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, all of the stuff almost back to where it was when all of this started, so what are you gonna say there?
• 52:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how on earth you make an argument that if it comes all the way back down,
• 52:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: that you're still saying that that stuff is there.
• 52:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: It appears that it was, while I'm forgetting the word, why am I forgetting it?
• 52:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: It was our favorite word.
• 52:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it was Transient, Transitory.
• 53:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: Transitory, thank you.
• 53:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: Transitory, it appears that it was Transitory to a degree.
• 53:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: And...
• 53:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so, too, I think because of this, if you look at what the big inflation drivers have been, it's largely been from this conflict, now with them coming back down, I think that they're gonna have to go into the next meeting with a drastically different set of data that they didn't have in the last one, but now so much has changed.
• 53:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: If this stays in the 60s, by the next time that there's a Fed meeting, you're gonna have a huge swing in what the data's saying.
• 53:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: they have to to to take note of that.
• 53:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if that's true, then the odds for rate hikes should drop like a rock.
• 53:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: I don't know anything to add on the rates.
• 53:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well said, and it's because, yeah, the PCECPIs, they work on a lag, you know, one to two months before you see that oil.
• 53:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: And so to Brandon's point, which is a great one is that there's going to be new data at the next Fed meeting.
• 53:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, you know, probabilities of it going up, of course, have gone up.
• 54:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm in the camp that we could be neutral to maybe one.
• 54:06
  [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the median dot plot is for one hike from this past meeting last week, but
• 54:13
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think with the new data and how Kevin Wars wants to approach CPI, he actually wants to do a different metric all like it's called the trim demean where you take like the top 6% of price movements and the bottom 6% you just wipe those out kind of like outliers and then you take that average which will change and smooth out the inflation number so then how they're going to approach the interest rate might actually be a little bit more
• 54:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: And then, of course, there's how are they going to use the balance sheet, which will also change a bit of the liquidity metrics because yields will might, they might change just from the market standpoint, if they shrink the balance sheet, they let it run off.
• 54:52
  [SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see if that's the case, but there's no, you know, denying that rates are definitely very correlated with Bitcoin's price.
• 55:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well set points fellas.
• 55:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, a well set in a great episode active chat one last call.
• 55:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: Give it a like Subscribe if you're new and check out the links below.
• 55:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: We got Brendan's training course You sign up for that if that's not your type of what you're looking for check out the other ones We got a bunch of dollar trials so you can get in get the information get the coins of the week Get those first alerts and be a more part of the community in the team
• 55:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's going to do it all for this Friday.
• 55:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: Guys, we really appreciate you doing it.
• 55:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you, Brendan.
• 55:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you, Hunter.
• 55:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: And thank you to everybody that joined us on the live stream.
• 55:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: And everybody else listening over the weekend.
• 55:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: I hope you enjoy it as we head into America.
• 55:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: What?
• 55:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: 250th birthday next week.
• 55:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: We'll have a fun little episode.
• 55:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: Be sure to make some content for you guys before we head out for the long weekend.
• 55:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: We really appreciate you all joining, but that's all for now.
• 55:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: Bye everybody.