Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on what the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey says about the economy

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on what the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey says about the economy · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk zed B.
• 0:12
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• 0:16
  Speaker 2: The latest am Z Business Outlooks Survey, not Consumer Outlooks Survey.
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  Speaker 2: Sorry I put you wrong earlier. Business outlook Survey is
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  Speaker 2: out and paint a mixed picture. The overall confidence up
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  Speaker 2: four points, but companies confidence in their own futures taking
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: a bit of a hit. Liam Dan's with us sneeze.
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  Speaker 2: Allen Herrell, Business Editor at Large, High LIAMB good it Ryan, Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: good to have you on. So what are these figures
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  Speaker 2: telling us?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, mix mixed picture. All right. Look, I wanted to
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  Speaker 3: put the most upbeat thing in the headline. So they
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  Speaker 3: were telling us that the recession is over probably, I mean,
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  Speaker 3: so it measures it also measures past performance and looking
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  Speaker 3: back over the last few months, businesses were more upbeat
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  Speaker 3: than they had been about what they've just been through.
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  Speaker 1: That.
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  Speaker 3: So am z's chief economist Sharon Zol was saying, well,
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  Speaker 3: it does look like that points to the recession being over.
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  Speaker 3: So that's good news. And then broad come confidence, you
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  Speaker 3: know about things getting better. I mean we've had this before.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, things were so bad they had to be
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  Speaker 3: had to be getting better, right, So that's up up
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  Speaker 3: again four points to plus fifty eight in the net
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  Speaker 3: equation that they do, but a little bit of an
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  Speaker 3: easing in their own business expectations, so how they think
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  Speaker 3: their business might go in the sort of year ahead,
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  Speaker 3: just just by one point though, so pretty marginal. I
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  Speaker 3: mean it could be margin of ra stuff. And it
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  Speaker 3: just is a reminder that this is not a boom
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  Speaker 3: we're back in boom times type recovery. This is a
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  Speaker 3: bit of a slow grind out. I mean, it's definitely
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  Speaker 3: going to feel better than recession because we will have
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  Speaker 3: some growth, but it's not suddenly back to a sort
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  Speaker 3: of a rock star economy so to speak.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was going to ask you how they could
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  Speaker 2: how you can walk into how you both those things
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  Speaker 2: can be true at the same time. How business leaders
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  Speaker 2: can feel confident about the wider economy but none of
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  Speaker 2: them feel good about themselves. But knowing the actual numbers,
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  Speaker 2: I can see how you know how that might be.
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  Speaker 3: It's sort of it can be the other way around
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  Speaker 3: sometimes too. So they ask them how they're feeling about
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  Speaker 3: the economy overall, and that's I think where they're feeling
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  Speaker 3: a bit more upbeat. You can see, you know, lower
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  Speaker 3: interest rates starting to have the impact that we'd expect
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  Speaker 3: and get things moving a bit, make our households feel
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  Speaker 3: a bit more secure in their cash flow as mortgage
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  Speaker 3: rates come down. But still pretty tough for those businesses,
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  Speaker 3: especially when you look at the sectors. So retail and
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  Speaker 3: construction still doing it pretty tough as you might expect
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  Speaker 3: with the kind of dairy returns and that sort of
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  Speaker 3: thing that we're seeing. Agriculture sector is certainly a lot
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  Speaker 3: more upbeat. So yeah, look, I think it's going to
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  Speaker 3: take a while for retail and construction to sort of
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  Speaker 3: grind their way back into positive territory.
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  Speaker 2: Is so obviously this year well, well we're hoping this
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  Speaker 2: year is about recovery. But when will we start we
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  Speaker 2: start feeling like it.
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  Speaker 3: Well, good question. I think they have got their consumer confidence.
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  Speaker 3: You know, we're all consumers. I think they've got their
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  Speaker 3: consumer confidence numbers tomorrow, so that's will be a little
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  Speaker 3: bit of an indication. I think it takes just a
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  Speaker 3: bit of time. I mean, I know people are on
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  Speaker 3: shorter mortgage rate fixed terms and things, but it does
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  Speaker 3: take a bit of time to get back into feeling
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  Speaker 3: confident from you know, even though you might be getting
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  Speaker 3: a break on the mortgage or you know, we've still
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  Speaker 3: got that job. Uncertainty is unemployment, we know lags a
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  Speaker 3: bit in the economic cycle, and that is still probably
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  Speaker 3: likely to rise in the next thing, you know, probably
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  Speaker 3: net next next numbers, and so maybe peaking in the
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  Speaker 3: middle of the year, and then we start to see
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  Speaker 3: you know, employment come back stronger as well, and that's
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  Speaker 3: probably when people are starting to feel a bit more
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  Speaker 3: secure to go out and spending to spend on big items.
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  Speaker 3: So that's probably more towards the second half of the
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  Speaker 3: year realistically.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting stuff. Hey, thanks Liam, good to have you on.
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  Speaker 2: As always, lamb down in is it Herald's Business editor
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  Speaker 2: at large.
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