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Felix Prehn - ⚠️Big Banks Massive SELL Warning + Stock Market News 13 August 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The biggest bank in America, just warned that there is a shortage of kittens around here Unlikely, but in all seriousness, they are warning that one cell signal just got flagged which has actually been insanely accurate over the years.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you so you can see it.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: And it is how much cash fund managers hold.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: So, when they hold very little cash, they're basically all in, they're fully invested, which means what?
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Well, they can't invest anymore, and it typically tells us we're, you know, the end is near, sort of thing.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: No, we're at the top of the market and right now we're at 3.9% cash held by these banks, and I'm going to walk you through that a bunch of other kind of doomy headlines, and then explain why there is actually a silver lining here that is so good.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's going to be really hard to screw up the next 12 months if you know what you're doing.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: So 3.9% cash isn't really a lot, is it?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: And it's just down here.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: The last times we were in these kind of lows were sort of 2007, 12, 13,.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Not the most brilliant moments in the market, 2021.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: You know the kind of highs, right, that's not what we're looking at here and this is a little concerning.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: But before we dive deeper into the concerning thing, there is one opportunity out there which is tied to this what is underperforming when all the mad stocks are outperforming right?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Well, data point here from Bloomberg.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: They do get something right occasionally.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Berkshire Hathaway has underperformed the market by 25% over the last five years.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So it's just a total dud compared to literally just the market and, of course, compared to something like Palantir, it's just a shameful thing to own.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: But those are typically the moments that are actually the best moments to potentially buy Berkshire Hathaway.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: And before you're panicking that this is a whatever it is now half a million dollar stock or something.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: There is BRKA, which is very expensive, and then there is BRKB, which is for most people, although you might be able to get fractional shares either way.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: So I think this is so important.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I've actually put together a document for you which walks you through the whole thing and you can download that.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I'll put the link down below at fedexfriendsorg slash Buffett and that will take you to this page here.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: You put in your email and hit the button and there it is right.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: There she is in all her beauty and not financial advice, but it explains the opportunity in a workbook fashion here about timing of markets, market cycles, how it's valued, what the opportunity in a workbook fashion here about timing of markets, market cycles, how it's valued, what the opportunity might be, current valuation signals and so on.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: And then there's also some exercises for you, because I think it's very helpful always to learn through having a little bit of Q&A exercises in there.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So if you want to download that completely for free, of course, as part of our mission to make you better educated and better informed go to phoenixfriendsorg.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Slash Buffett First link below in the description as well.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Now back to the doom and the gloom.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So this also just out from the same loons at Bank of America, and they've asked the fund managers, all the fund managers out there do you think stocks are expensive or cheap?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: And 91% of them 91% said they are overvalued.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: What does that tell you?
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Well, if you take them at face value again, you'd say it's an indicator that things are expensive.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Or if you think that they're a bunch of sheep I was going to say something more offensive then you might think it's a contrarian indicator and we should keep buying.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: But, traditionally speaking, when we are at very high levels of this I think 2021, the market tends to be close to a top.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it has to happen right now.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Now, in addition to that, here's some harder data, because this isn't dependent on the whims of the fund managers In post-election years.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So where we are right now right, right after the election, right, stocks usually peak around about now.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: There's some seasonality here, a bit more volatility.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: We bottom out by late October.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: So August and September are usually not great for the stock market.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: One little thing can break the market because most people are on holiday.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: We are on Wall Street, right, because they get paid a lot, they make a lot of money, so they can afford to bugger off for a month or two.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, seriously, so that's a real thing.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: So bear that in mind.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: We might have a little bit of an adjustment period here coming up.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I have to take these glasses off, because otherwise I can't see these bloody green lines.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: And then you have insiders, the guys running companies like HIMSS.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Right, all the crowd out there is like HIMSS, himss, himssmns.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: It's amazing.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: It's the one thing that's going to make us all the money in the world ever.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Right, because this stock is down pretty harshly because Novin or DISC, our friendly Danish lot are suing them.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: So they are collapsed here and then come back up, and now they're down again.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Ceo sells the most amount of stocks any insider ever sold yesterday $30 million worth.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Not exactly a sort of confidence building activity, is it?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Especially when your earnings report just came in and they were pretty disastrous.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So keep an eye on that.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I also with the news here, and trade vision will keep you up to speed with exactly what's going on there.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: While the kittens are taking over again.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: What are you all doing on my desk?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: You guys are never on my desk except when I'm on this.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: No, don't press the buttons, don't press the buttons.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Don't do it, Don't do it.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Okay, there we go.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: So this is Hugh.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Who's the naughtiest by far?
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Everybody agrees you are the naughtiest, hugh.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: There must be some use for that Now.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: So there is that insider selling.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: We're also getting inflation data out today and you want to take a screenshot of this, of what all the wise economists at banks are predicting, generally speaking.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: We just look at the average.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So we're expecting about 0.25 on the headline for the month 0.3 headline sorry, core inflation.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: You come in higher than that, it's bad.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: You come in lower than that, it's good.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: So let me just write that down for you Higher is bad, lower is good.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, compared to these numbers down here, that's what you're looking at today.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: That's how you know whether the data was good or bad or hideous.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Now back to Berkshire.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Berkshire is perceived as a value stock, right.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: A lot of their money is in things like insurance companies, and an insurance company is basically an investment vehicle that's very tax efficient.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: So what do they do?
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: They collect premiums from you, and what are premiums?
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just money.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: They then take that money and they invest it right, and then occasionally there is a disaster and there is a claim and then they pay for the claim.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, but really the whole business is to collect premiums and hope that there is never a claim, and then they invest that and make money out of that.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: That's basically the business of an insurance company, and it's a very steady, stable business if it's set up right, and Buffett's a big fan of those, and this is why they own a lot of that.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Now the stock's down 14% since Warren's stepping down.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: He's officially stepping down at the end of the year, but he announced it.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: The S&P, including dividends, is up 11%, so we have underperformed the market by 25%, which is the most it's underperformed since 2020.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Covid rally right, because no one was buying.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: You know, people were buying Peloton and Plug and those kind of moronic stocks.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Rather than the quality.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: This is the much bigger underperformance than we saw in 2008 and in 2000, so it could be a very good opportunity.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: If you've ever thought about wanting to nibble on the good old warren um, not not literally, obviously then, um, this is a.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Read a little bit more about it, learn a bit more about it.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Um, and you obviously don't need to buy a whole share.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: How much is a berkshire a share nowadays?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Crikeyrikey $698,000.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: That's amazing.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I remember when they were quarter million each.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Amazing, isn't it?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: That's, it's quite extraordinary one stock, but yeah, there is.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: There is brkb.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: As I say, uh, plus, your broker might be able to give you fractional shares.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: That one's 465, which is a little bit cheaper, but yes, it's, it's a.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: It's.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: From a chart point of view, it's a falling knife.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: It's just been going down and down and down and down.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Where's the 200?
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, it's below all the moving average lines, so it's just underperformed, while things like ARK have done the opposite.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: They've outperformed, which is one reason why we started liking these kinds of stocks from here.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: That was the buy point.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: That was the buy point there.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Actually, I didn't buy ARKK, I bought ARKW, which did a fairly similar pattern here, and we bought that, I think, here.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: I think that was the buy point and that did very nicely put it very nicely up, you know, 25% or something like that, whereas the good old Warren did the opposite.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: So timely moment to get a little bit more interested in the Buffett way of investing.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Perhaps felixrentsorg slash Buffett.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And you know people always think, oh, but hang on, felix, you're the only investor going to do this.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I'm like no, I'm able to have more than one set of opinions and see whether things can be undervalued, and that can be an opportunity.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: You just have to always be careful with your risk management and all that kind of good stuff here and hopefully help you out with that.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: And then we have the president.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: He keeps life interesting, doesn't he?
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, he really is a master at PR.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: He signs another executive order extending the China tariff deadline by another three months.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Yay, another three months of this Brilliant, which just means that we're not going to get this harsh cutoff in a cutoff point where tariffs will be 100% or something, and it's probably because the US needs China's magnets and rare earths and therefore they're going to hopefully come to some kind of conclusion which will be a little bit better for us in the market.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Now here's another great opportunity, and I thought twice about mentioning this to you because I know not everybody here is into crypto.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Let me know, by the way, in the comments, if you own any crypto, any crypto-related stocks Ethereum.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I did a video about this a few days ago, which you guys didn't seem to be that interested in, but Ethereum is on the absolute tear, so we saw a tremendous amount of money pour into the Ethereum ETFs.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: There are treasury companies around Ethereum and that's what my video is on.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: It's that one entitled Tom Lee, something or other in the last few days.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: There are stocks like this, for example, spet, which is an Ethereum treasury company.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: They basically issue shares and then, without money, they buy Ethereum, hoping Ethereum will go up.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: It's a bit of a leverage play on something fairly risky.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Tremendous volume yesterday picked up more than 10% in the day, came back down about 6% at the end of the day.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I think they're diluting again on that particular day.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Now the interesting thing with this is they can actually dilute as much as they want.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: That way, they collect cash.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: As long as they put that cash back into Ethereum and as long as Ethereum keeps going up, that actually creates a bigger multiplier, which is weird and it's definitely a sign of a frothy market, but it's also something that could potentially make people a lot of money.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: But it's also something that could potentially make people a lot of money.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So I'm not against the latest thing, as long as risk management is in place.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: And then we got this gold will not be tariffed.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Yay, and we like that, because gold stocks like.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I put this in last week's watch list and it was still up from that entry there, you know, 5% or something in a week and obviously tremendously more over the period.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Or here's another one, groy, which has been one of my absolute favorites here because we bought it down here according to our rules, which, if you want to get serious about this, then, as I said, join me.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Saturday 87% up.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I would personally not buy Groy up here.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: I think a pullback is required.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Before I go a little bit deeper into this.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Gold itself has gone sideways for quite a long time.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: So the stocks there are gold stocks, but they're like gold miners and they've been running up much, much more.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I actually quite like gold here.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Because we've gone sideways now since April and in this beautiful zigzag pattern that we look for, we're kind of in the middle of it.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, you could nibble at the end of it.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: If you had a higher risk profile, you could buy it when it breaks out of that.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: If you have a lower risk profile, we're right back and bang in the middle, but we're still above the 50-day moving average line.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: So that could be an interesting spot to look at that.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Again, I'm not telling you what to buy, I'm just giving you some thought processes for the day.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: The other stuff to watch out for for sure is go to Trade Vision.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: There is always an upcoming events tab up here.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: You just click on the green little button in the top right here and you can see the events coming in today, the coming days.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: You can filter them by impact.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: You can just say, hey, I only care about the really high, impactful stuff, select high for impact, and then you only see the stuff that really matters, and that's a good thing to do.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: The second thing to always keep an eye on is the VIX.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: The VIX is the fear index Notice.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Right now, at 16, there is very little fear and everything will be wonderful forever after, until it isn't.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: So, if you've got some value out of this, my friends join me Saturday phoenixfrontsorg slash training, and I thank you for watching.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in.