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Israel’s Arab kingmakers: Which PM will blink first? · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian, here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Friday, December 30, 2026. The Victorian Court of Appeal
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  Speaker 1: will today hand down its decision on an appeal bid
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  Speaker 1: by mushroom killer Erin Patterson. The 52-year-old was convicted last
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  Speaker 1: year of the murders of three elderly relatives and the
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  Speaker 1: attempted murder of another. Patterson argued errors by the trial judge,
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  Speaker 1: an unfair cross-examination and irregularities in jury accommodation during deliberations
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  Speaker 1: meant she didn't get a fair trial. We'll be covering
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  Speaker 1: the result live at theaustralian.com.au. Israel's gloriously messy democracy has
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  Speaker 1: thrown up a real doozy. Parliamentary elections that have two
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  Speaker 1: potential prime ministers both saying the other guy lost. One
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  Speaker 1: thing they can agree on, they won't go into coalition
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  Speaker 1: with Arab parties, throw in the religious nationalists and the settlers,
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  Speaker 1: and we might be heading towards another election very soon.
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  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan's here in just a moment.
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  Speaker 2: Many Israelis went to bed expecting a victory for opposition
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  Speaker 2: leader Gadi Eisenkopf. but woke to find Netanyahu the favorite
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  Speaker 2: to leave.
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  Speaker 1: The results leave Israel facing the prospect of political gridlock.
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  Speaker 2: Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main opponent, Gary Isengard,
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  Speaker 2: have enough seats to form a government.
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  Speaker 3: There's not only weeks ahead of us of negotiations, but
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  Speaker 3: there's no clear direction that the country has chosen to go.
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  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is the Australian's foreign editor, and like me,
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  Speaker 1: he's been poring over the results of the Israeli election.
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  Speaker 1: I'm finding it quite stressful to work out what on
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  Speaker 1: earth is going on. Greg, I suspect you might be
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  Speaker 1: quite enjoying this.
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  Speaker 2: Well, statistically, it's magnificent, Claire. The Israeli people have produced
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  Speaker 2: an exquisitely impossible result, which is so perfectly tuned to
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  Speaker 2: make no government possible whatsoever. Proportional representation is is a
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  Speaker 2: weird enough system to start with. But then Israel has
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  Speaker 2: two Arab parties which don't really sign up to the
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  Speaker 2: Zionist project. So it's very, very difficult for the mainstream
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  Speaker 2: parties to make a coalition with them. And everybody, whichever
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  Speaker 2: way you look at it, is short of a majority
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  Speaker 2: unless they do things which they've absolutely promised their voters
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  Speaker 2: they won't do. So my guess is the most likely
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  Speaker 2: outcome is you get no government. Netanyahu remains caretaker. And
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  Speaker 2: we have new elections next March.
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  Speaker 1: It really is amazing that we are still talking about
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  Speaker 1: Benjamin Netanyahu as this dominant figure, isn't it? This is
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  Speaker 1: the first election, of course, since October 7, 2023. During
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  Speaker 1: the attack, about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others
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  Speaker 1: were taken hostage. But Benjamin Netanyahu cannot be killed off,
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  Speaker 1: even though we've heard Israelis protesting in the street about him.
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  Speaker 1: We've had serious attacks on him by people who were
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  Speaker 1: once in his war cabinet, including Gadi Eisenkot, his main opponent.
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  Speaker 1: What is it about Benjamin Netanyahu that Israelis just can't
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  Speaker 1: let go of?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think it's his longevity and his security brand.
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  Speaker 2: I've probably interviewed him more often than any other Australian.
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  Speaker 2: I first met him in the early 1980s when he
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  Speaker 2: was Israel's ambassador to the United Nations. I interviewed him
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  Speaker 2: when he was foreign minister and finance minister. He is
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  Speaker 2: an extremely formidable guy. There's no doubt about that. He
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  Speaker 2: has a tremendous will to power and a tremendous ability
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  Speaker 2: to make everything about himself. But he has done great
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  Speaker 2: things for Israel in the past. I mean, as finance minister,
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  Speaker 2: he created the startup country and all that. I think
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  Speaker 2: Netanyahu has definitely lost some seats. But the last telling,
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  Speaker 2: it looks like his coalition has 53 seats and it
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  Speaker 2: needs 61 to govern. That's why I say this is
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  Speaker 2: an exquisitely impossible election. So Two of the parties against
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  Speaker 2: him are led by men who used to be his
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  Speaker 2: chief of staff, Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett. Can you
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  Speaker 2: imagine that? Can you imagine Peter Credlin running a political
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  Speaker 2: party in opposition to Tony Abbott or something like this?
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  Speaker 2: But even if one of those joined his coalition now,
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  Speaker 2: that would bring him up to 60 votes, not 61.
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  Speaker 2: And it's even worse on the other side because they've
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  Speaker 2: only got 49 votes. So they cannot govern without the
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  Speaker 2: support of the Israeli Arab Party's A whole heap of
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  Speaker 2: members of their coalition, including Eisenkot himself, but also Bennett
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  Speaker 2: and Lieberman, have said they, under no circumstances, will they
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  Speaker 2: govern with the support of the Arab parties. That means
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  Speaker 2: if they do do that, their voters will be very
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  Speaker 2: cross with them. If they have to go to an
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  Speaker 2: election in six months because the government falls, those parties
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  Speaker 2: that do that could easily be wiped out. God bless
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  Speaker 2: the Israeli voter. This is fantastic for journalists all around
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  Speaker 2: the world.
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  Speaker 1: Well, of course, one of the reasons to support Israel
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  Speaker 1: is it is this messy, vibrant democracy where there is
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  Speaker 1: a real contest going on here. And of course, one
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  Speaker 1: of the things that supporters of Israel say is that
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  Speaker 1: in this population of 10 million, there are 2 million Arabs.
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  Speaker 1: They vote. They are represented in the Knesset. But now
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  Speaker 1: we see both these potential prime ministers effectively ruling out
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  Speaker 1: governing with the Arab parties. What does that tell us
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  Speaker 1: about Israeli democracy, though, Greg? Does that tell us that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, even Gadi Eizenkot, who says that we can
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  Speaker 1: all unite around a belief that Israel has a right
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  Speaker 1: to exist? Yes, that is true, except not if it
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  Speaker 1: includes the Arabs.
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  Speaker 2: Look, this is a really good question, Claire, and it's
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  Speaker 2: so complex and so multidimensional. It's not that much more
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  Speaker 2: than the Labor Party saying it won't govern in coalition
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  Speaker 2: with the Greens or the Liberals saying they won't govern
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  Speaker 2: in coalition with one nation. I do think proportional representation
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  Speaker 2: has a lot of blame to bear.
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  Speaker 4: Here, because even 30 or 40 years ago, the basic
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  Speaker 4: electoral contest in Israel was Likud, centre-right, just normal conservative party,
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  Speaker 4: and Labor, one of the great parties in the world,
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  Speaker 4: the Israeli Labor Party.
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  Speaker 2: Whereas proportional representation encourages you, if you can get 5%
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  Speaker 2: or 10% of the vote, better to get your little block,
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  Speaker 2: then you can make deals which favour your block. So
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  Speaker 2: The Bedouin Arabs vote for the Ram Party. The other
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  Speaker 2: Israeli Arabs vote for the United List. It's not just
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  Speaker 2: that the other parties say they won't govern with the Arabs.
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  Speaker 2: The Arabs have traditionally said they won't join a coalition.
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  Speaker 2: But Israeli Arabs themselves are subject to a lot of
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  Speaker 2: contradictory pressures. And theoretically, they're not really Zionist parties. So
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  Speaker 2: it's very difficult to govern with a party which says
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  Speaker 2: we don't actually believe in the existence of a Jewish state.
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  Speaker 2: Or they might say, we are so opposed to the
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  Speaker 2: Israeli presence in the West Bank that we demand immediate evacuation.
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  Speaker 2: Or they might say, we're not going to label Hamas terrorists. Now,
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  Speaker 2: the Ram leader, that's the pragmatic Arab party, refused to
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  Speaker 2: label Hamas a terrorist organization within the last 24 hours. Well, Eisencott, Bennett, Lieberman.
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  Speaker 2: They can't look their voters in the eye and say, well,
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  Speaker 2: we're going to make him minister for the environment or something.
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  Speaker 2: It's just impossible. But the particular combination of proportional representation
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  Speaker 2: and the personality of Netanyahu means that the natural centre-right majority,
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  Speaker 2: which is there, can't bring itself together. So Eisenkot's party
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  Speaker 2: is a centre-right party. He's a conservative guy. He's a
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  Speaker 2: former chief of the Israeli Defence Force. He was in
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  Speaker 2: Netanyahu's cabinet. Bennett is a former chief of staff to
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  Speaker 2: Netanyahu when he was leader of the Likud. Lieberman was
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  Speaker 2: a former chief of staff to Netanyahu and then a
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  Speaker 2: foreign minister and a defence minister in Netanyahu governments. All
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  Speaker 2: these guys belong in one coalition. They all represent centre-right parties,
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  Speaker 2: but their personal animosities are so great. So Lieberman and
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  Speaker 2: Bennett say they'll never, ever serve with Netanyahu again. And
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  Speaker 2: you've got to say, Netanyahu... He's not the easiest fellow
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  Speaker 2: to get along with in a coalition government. You know,
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  Speaker 2: he doesn't create a lot of space for alternative leaders
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  Speaker 2: to emerge and flourish. So in my view, there's a
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  Speaker 2: completely coherent, natural, set-of-right majority in the Israeli electorate. But
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  Speaker 2: the interaction of personalities and proportional representation means that you
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  Speaker 2: just can't get there. And Israeli voters will either have
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  Speaker 2: to sort it out in another election and give one
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  Speaker 2: side or the other a majority, or they... we'll have
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  Speaker 2: to change the system.
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  Speaker 1: You mentioned Shasta and United Torah. They're the two parties
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  Speaker 1: that a lot of Haredi, ultra-Orthodox Israelis support. Netanyahu needs them.
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  Speaker 1: They're in that 53-seat coalition that you mentioned that's forming
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  Speaker 1: at the moment, Greg. But he's promised them an exemption
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  Speaker 1: from compulsory military service. The Supreme Court keeps striking down
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  Speaker 1: his attempts to actually deliver that for him. What do
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  Speaker 1: you think is going to happen there, especially given that
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  Speaker 1: the issue of whether ultra-Orthodox young people are allowed to
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  Speaker 1: avoid military service is so hot with other Israelis who
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  Speaker 1: believe that that's completely unfair?
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  Speaker 2: Well, this is where the proportional representation is so important.
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  Speaker 2: So Shas on the latest figures looks as though it's
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  Speaker 2: going to get seven members of the Knesset and United
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  Speaker 2: Torah Judaism, seven. So that's 14. That's a lot less
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  Speaker 2: than the Arab. So the ultra-Orthodox Israelis voting as ultra-Orthodox
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  Speaker 2: We'll get far fewer representatives than Arab Israelis. But Netanyahu
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  Speaker 2: cannot possibly be in government without them. It's absolutely impossible.
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  Speaker 2: One of the only ways that Eisenhower could get to
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  Speaker 2: government would be if he got ran, so he'd have
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  Speaker 2: to defy everything that he promised where he said he
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  Speaker 2: wouldn't govern with Arabs. but if he got the ram
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  Speaker 2: party to give him support from outside the coalition say
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  Speaker 2: confidence and supply and shas has said if eisenkot will
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  Speaker 2: do the right thing from their point of view on
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  Speaker 2: exempting the haredi they go and support him so eisenkot
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  Speaker 2: will face the same choice as netanyahu i can have
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  Speaker 2: a government maybe But I can only do it if
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  Speaker 2: I don't make the Haredi serve in the army. Now,
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  Speaker 2: the Supreme Court says the Haredi have got to serve,
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  Speaker 2: and it's illegal to exempt them and all that sort
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  Speaker 2: of thing. But Netanyahu as prime minister just says, well, okay,
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  Speaker 2: you can say whatever you like, but I'm not going
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  Speaker 2: to pass a law penalizing them. And the two ultra-Orthodox parties,
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  Speaker 2: so this is a criticism of them. I have a
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  Speaker 2: lot of respect for them. I've spent time with their
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  Speaker 2: communities in Israel proper and in the West Bank. They're
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  Speaker 2: deeply religious people. They're serious. They're not frivolous. They're not
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  Speaker 2: corrupt in any way. But it's, in my view, completely
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  Speaker 2: unsustainable that 15% of the population doesn't serve in the
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  Speaker 2: army and doesn't serve in the economy. But that's their
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  Speaker 2: only issue. So they'll go with left or right. And
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  Speaker 2: that makes them very powerful because neither side can possibly
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  Speaker 2: govern without them.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, what about the settler violence that's done such
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  Speaker 1: harm to Israel's global reputation?
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  Speaker 5: Settlement movement has provoked waves of deadly violence from both sides.
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  Speaker 5: In the last two years, violent ultra-nationalist settlers have significantly
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  Speaker 5: intensified their attacks on Palestinians with tacit support from Israeli authorities.
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  Speaker 1: What about the settlers, Greg? One of the issues that
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  Speaker 1: even supporters of Israel struggle to come to terms with
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  Speaker 1: in their own minds is Jewish settlers involved in violence
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  Speaker 1: against Palestinians. Those parties too, the parties that are supported
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  Speaker 1: by many of those settlers, are also in Netanyahu's coalition.
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  Speaker 1: How does Netanyahu manage that issue, especially if we're going
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  Speaker 1: to deal with another election? He can't betray the settlers
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  Speaker 1: who voted essentially for his coalition.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, again, it's very complicated. Lots of shades of grey.
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  Speaker 2: You know, Israel is five million shades of grey. So
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  Speaker 2: the term settler is a very broad term. When people
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  Speaker 2: like Penny Wong or Anthony Albanese airily talk about settlers,
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  Speaker 2: they typically mean every Israeli who lives in territory beyond
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  Speaker 2: the 1967 borders. So that includes all the Jews in
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  Speaker 2: the Jewish quarter of East Jerusalem, and it includes the
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  Speaker 2: vast majority of settlers who are completely peaceful and law-abiding
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  Speaker 2: and not religious fanatics or anything else. However, there is
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  Speaker 2: a minority of extreme nationalists. Now, I think Israel is
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  Speaker 2: an ethical and humane country, but it has been coarsened
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  Speaker 2: by decades and decades and decades of hatred and bitterness
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  Speaker 2: and visceral violence and terrorism and repeated military assaults. And
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  Speaker 2: there are two parties that reflect an extremist view. Religious Zionism,
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  Speaker 2: which is led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit, which
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  Speaker 2: is led by Itamar Ben-Gabir. Itamar Ben-Gabir is particularly seen
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  Speaker 2: as being semi-complicit in this tiny fringe of people who
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  Speaker 2: are enacting violence against Palestinians in their own villages. This
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  Speaker 2: is completely wrong. It's wicked. It's bad. It's a small
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  Speaker 2: number of people. Now, I think it's a weakness of Netanyahu.
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  Speaker 2: I have great criticism of Netanyahu that the Israeli government
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  Speaker 2: has not been much more active in enforcing the law.
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  Speaker 2: It's quite clear Netanyahu has not at any moment endorsed
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  Speaker 2: any of this unlawful activity. And the fact that he
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  Speaker 2: can't get a normal majority with Bennett and Lieberman and
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  Speaker 2: Gadi means that he has to ally with these extreme
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  Speaker 2: right-wing nationalist parties. And They give a wink and a
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  Speaker 2: nod to some of this violence. Netanyahu will never betray
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  Speaker 2: the settlers, the 600,000, but he should absolutely enforce Israel's law.
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  Speaker 3: There's been a real bad outbreak of crime in the
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  Speaker 3: Arab-Israeli population because the police are not making any effort
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  Speaker 3: to enforce the law within that population.
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  Speaker 2: So criminal gangs and so forth. are operating with very
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  Speaker 2: little police interference. Israeli Arabs will talk about Palestinian issues sometimes,
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  Speaker 2: or their leadership will, but they're much more concerned with,
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  Speaker 2: are our villages getting properly funded? Are the police turning
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  Speaker 2: up to look after us? But nonetheless, this is something
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  Speaker 2: new in Israel, and it's something horrible. And because Netanyahu
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  Speaker 2: can't get to government without these two ultra right-wing parties,
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  Speaker 2: I think that makes him slack in enforcing the law
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  Speaker 2: against that extremist small minority of settlers who are breaking
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  Speaker 2: the law and who are guilty of violence against Palestinians.
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  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's foreign editor. You can read
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: his analysis of the Israeli election and all the world's
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  Speaker 1: best news right now at theaustralian.com.au.