Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 2 Gambling Preview

Transcript

NFL Week 2 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman. I will be joined in a
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: second by my bff, my compadre, my companion, professional better,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, and he provided some professional lessons this past week,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: our first Tuesday pod of the season. I got to
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: imagine if anybody listen to this pod, it was profitable
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: for them, because we're going to run through a lot
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: of different things, and I will delineate ways in which
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: it should have been profitable, and Simon and I will
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: briefly review that before we dig into our handicaps for
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: everything and go game on the board, whether it's a side,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: whether it's a total, whether it's a money line. Reminder
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: for people who are new to The Favorites, my name
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: is Chad Moman, the chief condes content officer for the
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Action Network. We've been around for about three and a
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: half years. We focus entirely on serving the sports betting community,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: information analysis research. We've got an award winning app that's
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: free if you download it. It's called the Action Network App.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: You can track your picks in there. I used to
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: be at ESPN. I had a podcast there for a
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: long time. Brought it over the Action Network when we launched.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: We are fully focused on the sports betting community, which
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: is why Colin Cowherd wanted us to join the Volume
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: podcast network. On this podcast, we will go over every game.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Like I said, we will give you our Fox whole bet.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: We're all gonna jump in this one together. Sometimes it works,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: sometimes it doesn't. We're going to give you our Simon
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: says bet. Simon says it, just bet it. Thursday, we
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: will do some Survivor. We will narrow down the board
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: based on lines that have moved and choose five games
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: that we like the most. Reminder Me and Colin review
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: all this from his side of the perspective on Friday.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: We have a show called Convinced Me that we do
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: it at Action Network HQ on Sundays, in which we
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: do our final takedown of the board at eleven am
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Eastern before the game's kick off. A lot to get
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: through their Simon, how you feeling, buddy, and I want
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: to say thank you. Anyone's still listening to the show.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: That will be the most Chad will talk in a
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: row for the remainder of the show. I promise you
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: good chat. How you doing, Buddy? You know sometimes your
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: British wit comes out and it's hurtful. Well, I just
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: want to start up by saying in someone sitting in
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: this room right down their favorite team is leading the
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: division at one and now, and that is the Philadelphia Eagles.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Another one of us team is tied for the lead
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: in their division without even a single win. That's Chad
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: with the Chicago Bears. And we have another team here
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: in the Buffalo Bills, who are tied for last place
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: in their division. So Chad, a lot of things are
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: changing and moving fast here in football season. No Joe
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell loves the Buffalo Bills. I of course
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: love the Bears. You love the Eagles. Uh. I thought
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: this weekend was fascinating and and we're gonna go through
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: every game and we'll do sort of our good cap
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: bad cap routine instead of good cap back coup, good
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: cap back cap, because look a lot of times you
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: get it right and you still don't win. Even though
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I have often said the right side is the winning side.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Um For example, that Arizona Tennessee game, we like the
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: over fifty one and a half. It landed at fifty
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: one with three minutes left, in the third quarter and
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: no one scored again the rest of the game. Uh,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: sometimes you get it wrong, like the Packers. We got
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: that one wrong. And sometimes you just get it right,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: like the Texans or the Texans on the money line,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: or the Steelers on the money line, or the Raiders
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: on the money line. And hopefully, as we discussed in
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: this show last Tuesday and reiterated on Thursday, you tie
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: some money line parlays together and you put the Raiders
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: and the Steelers together, and the Raiders and the Texans together,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: and the Texans and the Steelers together. We also had
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: the Lions in there, so that one didn't work out. Um,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: but that's when you cash. Yeah, that was again. It's
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: it's week one. That's why it's the best week. It's
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: the overreact week. It's the most fun for talking points.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna try to keep it cool, keep my head, uh,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: you know, not so far in the clouds, because it's
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: one of these things where I don't want to listen
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: to the noise. But there are some things we have
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to talk about and you have to take notice of.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: And that's where it's it's there's some stuff you're gonna
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: fade because week one is just such a throughout week,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: there's some stuff that we're gonna look back on and
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: be like, Okay, that was a sign like this team
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: they're either for real or this team's complete seasons in
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: the tanker. This is just an awful team. So it's
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: really fun the next couple of weeks where it's just
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: adding information to everyone's model, so the sharps get better
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: and the sports books get smarter. But twelve and four,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I think it was the underdogs covered and it was
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: nine and seven. I believe one outright. That's historical chat.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: So I'm pretty pissed that I kind of blew it
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: for us and we went two and three in the contest.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: But hey, at least are fans. They listened to the show,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: they took some money lines with us, and it was
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: a profitable week for most of us. So I'm hoping
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I can be better for you this week in the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: contest because that that was pretty much, uh, the only
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: letdown of the weekend. Well, look, there's a lot of
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: lessons we can take away from that, and one is
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: getting out of our own head, and we did this
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: last season two. We ended up finishing and winning a
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: lot of money, but um two game difference we would
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: have like right exactly, And so the difference is you
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: gotta sort of stay focused on what your principles are,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: and I think you know when it comes down to
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: making our five best picks, which we'll talk a little
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: bit more on Thursday and then defining those even more
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: on Sunday morning, we'll get into that and sort of
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: try to try to get out of our own heads.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Let's get right to the game. Though. We know that
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: so many people they just want to get to the
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: game that they are most interested in. So we've got
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: a special treat our voiceover specialist Tina. She's just going
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: to tee up the games for us. We will put
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: it in the time code. Put the time code in
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the description of the podcast. That way you can fast
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: forward to directly what you want. All right, It's week two,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football, New York Giants at Washington Football Team.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: The New York Football Giants who look terrible against the
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Denver Broncos, a team that you on it to bet,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: a team that I did not want to bet. That
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: was a bad choice on my part. On the road
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: of the foot Washington football team on Thursday Night it
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: looks like they're about three and a half point underdogs
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: on the road um, majority of the bets, majority of
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: the money coming in on the Giants. The total looks
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: like it's very low, about forty and a half. Um.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: What say you here, Simon? What are we thinking? And
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I'll save you for Thursday. But I did tell Chad
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the last thing I said that it was I'm gonna
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: give you so much ship for not let me put
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Denver in our contest, because that, to me was the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: best bet of the weekend. It just felt like that
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: is a fucking lie. By the way, no, no, no, no,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say that. I that I didn't want
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: that I wanted to not take Denver was not on
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: the side of Denver. But I will tell you you
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: never once said this is my favorite bet. You never
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: never said, not once did you ever say that if
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: you had said to me, this is my favorite bet.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Do you think I'm ever not gonna go with it?
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I think my exact words, I'm gonna give you so
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: much ship for not let me put Denver in the
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: That is, by the way, I'm willing to take the ship.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not willing to accept the fact that you said
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: it was your fact. That's that's the new Jersey way
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: of saying this is my favorite bet. But I'm sorry.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: I'll be more clear next time, but try to use
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: the fucking language. This is costing his money. That's on
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: the that's on the Uh. Yeah, this game, man, is ugly.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: We're heartbroker now because Washington I liked that last week
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: and again fits when down. I know people think there's
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: not that big of a difference. Seame Haneke Fitches took
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: first team reps all of the preseason. That's that's a
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: big deal. So Heineke wasn't prepared. I thought he played
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: well coming in cold, and you know he kept him
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: in that game. But it was because I thought that
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: was such a trap game for the Chargers. I mean
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: they literally Herbert had that red zone turnover and I
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: was like, okay, me and Chad are gonna sneak one
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: out here. And then I mean literally the next play
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: gives it fumbled. So hurt that hurt football arts. Yeah,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: it's good to be back. So looking at this game,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: this just feels like a classic divisional game where you
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: take the three and a half of the Giants. I
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: know they looked horrible in their game against Denver. We
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: talked about that was kind of like a setup where
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the Giants have been at other pieces. There s Quan still,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: no one really knows what's going on Galaday. That offensive
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: line is horrible. I get it. Everyone here in this
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: game is gonna be terrified and you're not gonna want
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: to take the Giants. But just the fact that this
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: divisional game, both these teams are gonna know each other
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: very well. You can just go through like their past
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: games the last couple of years, Daniel Jones isn't as
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: bad as you showed in that Denver game. He is bad,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: but I mean that was he was atrocious against Denver.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Um literally scored a touchdown with zero times, like zero
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: time left on the clock. To make it look like
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: they scored thirteen points in that game. They did it.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: They scored seven. That was a horrible game. So, just
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: looking from the Matt standpoint, I'll be taking the Giants
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: zero chance. We put this into our contest. I hate
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: this game, so I'm gonna bet the Giants. I'll bet
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the under and I might watch it for ten minutes.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Here's one thing I like about this. The Giants of
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. These divisional games on Thursday
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: nights are always so ugly and so close, So I
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: think I agree with you, and also my instinct one
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: this is if you want to sort of play against
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the overreaction, you play against the Giants over reaction because
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: they were so bad, and I do think people still
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: we'll give the Washington football team the benefit of the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: doubt and say, all right, they had that game, it
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: was close, they lost their quarterback, still played tight. They
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: will be the side that I want to bet on.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I go with the Giants. I
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: don't want to touch this as one of our five best,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: But what about the total of forty and a half? Again,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I'll probably end up taking the under, but I know
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: this will go over somehow. Both these guys are going
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: to be so sloppy at the football. But I just
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: can't trust you that these offenses like usually this. I
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: think it's I'm pretty sure it leans towards you over
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: these early weeks on the Thursdays because of the short week,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: where it actually is a bigger effect on the defense,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: and it does on the offense um. But for me,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I can't I can't take this over. I just cannot
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: do it. Um, even though I get I get it.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: This is a sneaky over just because it's Thursday night,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: but I just can't do it. That is a dreadfully
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: low total at forty and a half. And last week
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: we had the Giants at the lowest total on the board. Uh,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: it closed at forty two. It closed at forty one
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: and a half. It was sneaky at the end, it
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: got nerve acking, but it just made it. Yeah, just
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: made it. Uh. They were against last week the Denver
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Broncos Teddy Covers. The guy just covers. And by the way,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: I even think, I said in the podcast last Tuesday
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Teddy Covers, how do we not want to be on
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: the Teddy cover side? You might have talked me out
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: of it. If I want to do a little revision
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: of history, just remember this is classic narcissist chat. New
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: York Times bestseller Chad Melman wrote a book. You were like,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: we don't take road favorites when a home dog is
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: getting this amount of the money in this smoutter presential,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I said, Chad, sometimes the public wins. That's the quote unquote.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: You know what you might I'm here for you, buddy. Wow,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: that is that is remarkable, recall, and no one is
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: better at calling me out as a narcissist than you,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: except for maybe my wife. It's like crazy, how quickly
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: you were able to glean the core of who I
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: am when I am so good at generally hiding it.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: The thing how much we talk, me, you and Matt Mitchell,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: we're talking constantly. It's it's you just get to know
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: people like that, Chad. The more you talk, more little
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: things you realize, Like I realized within ten minutes to
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: me and Matt Mitchell, if our airplane crash and we
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: were on a boat together, he would he would knock
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: me on, eating me within six hours, even if he
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: was full. You would you would just kill me right away,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: because that's just Nat Mitchell. So these are kind of
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: things I learned about people right away. I do think
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: that better than bookmaker are as good as anybody in
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the world at understanding and discerning personalities and group psychology.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: That's all bookmakers do is group psychology. Right Everything we're
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: talking about is what does the public think, How is
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: the number going to be shaded? How are they going
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: to take advantage of people who are overreacting this whole week.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Week two is like the the pinnacle of group psychology
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: for bookmakers, and so I am not surprised at all.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Your ability to identify, you know, people in their basic
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: insecurities or personality traits. You're a gift. You're a gift
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: to all of us. Signment Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: The Broncos right now our six point favorites on the road.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: This game open to two and a half. It's moved
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: up to six. Seventy of the bets coming in on
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the Broncos, seventy one cent of the money coming in
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: on the Broncos. Dude, take the Jaguars. No, I hate
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: this so much, but this is one of my favorite games.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: I had this set three and a half. It's alway
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: up to six six and a half. At certain books,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: we're doing a chat holding our nose. This is one
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: of these things. Were probably gonn end up taking the Jags,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: and I'm probably gonna convince myself take the moneyline, but
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: I just can't do it right now. On Tuesday because
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Urban Myers, man, that was embarrassing how bad they were
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: against Houston. I thought Houston was gonna win, but I
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be a lot closer because Houston
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: is awful. Another thing I loved about that game was
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence looked all right, like the way he threw
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: the ball and things like that. His decision making was terrible.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: But to get hyped that he threw for three yards
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: and three touchdowns against the Houston Texans' is a weird tick. Okay,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: I think we all know Houston Texans are terrible. So
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: just looking at this game, this is pure numbers and value.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: This is a three point game. I'm gonna take the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I expect the Jaguars offense to
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: be much better than the Giants offense was. So, you know,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: back to back road games for Denver to start the
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: season off, that's that's tough for them. That's a that's
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: a bad spot to be in. It's a little scary
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: with Teddy covers on the road. Uh he covers on
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the road. Number of base value six six and a
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: half of the Jaguars, just like Pittsburgh last week. You
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: have to take it if it's off by three points.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: So we'll definitely be on the Jaguars. Yeah, it's super ugly.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: But this is this is the difference between professional betting
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: and amateur betting. You make bad you make decisions on
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: bad games, and this is how you sort of increase
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: your bankroll. This is how you improve your r o I.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: It's if we saw we just saw underdogs going twelve
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: and four. We just saw nine of seven underdogs winning outright.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: It's very hard to win on the road in the NFL.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: It's very hard to win as a big favorite. Um
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: And we'll get to the Niners and we'll talk about
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: the Lions when we get to that. But you gotta
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: hold your nose. You gotta bet the Jags. You gotta
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: think this number is gonna go up, so you probably
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: just hold on and wait, I mean the sharps are
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: gonna come in on it. Well, we've just seen it
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: time and time again. The public. Yeah, this is only
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the things we talked all off season about. All my
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: favorite things about the legalization of sports gambling is the
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: public coming in so heavy on different sides that it
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: bumps up the number, It bumps up the money line
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: on these underdogs. That's why we just saw something historical
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: last week. It's because the public is all gambling like
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: guys who never even gambling their entire lives, you know,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: in their fifties and sixties, their sports betting now from
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: their couch, and they're moving lines because they've been thousands
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: of dollars, so they're pro I'm trying to take advantage
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: of these big spreads. Nothing wrong with guys in the
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: fifties and sixties betting, by the way, No, I love
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: those people. The total on this game is forty five,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: and actually forty five and a half. It's gone up. Um.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting. I think there's a a on the
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: over as well, for a little bit of the reason
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: we're talking about huge overreaction to the market. Eighty nine
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: percent of the money is coming in on the under.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: The majority of tickets money usually indicates professionals, which is
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: weird to me that so much more money is coming
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: in than tickets. That's interesting there on the under. I
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: would honestly like the over here too. This is just
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: one of these things where I could just see denvery
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: be able to put points up on this terrible Jags defense.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: And again the Jags, I think they have playmakers. I'll
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: bet to put up points on this Dever's defense. Dever's
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: defenses are gonna beat every team into the ground with
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: this defense that they're gonna have down weeks, and it
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: just seems like a really bad matchup for them this week. Yeah,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: I agree, I feel completely agree. And this is why
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: overreaction week is so interesting. Like the fact that that
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: this is a low total and a high spread makes
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: me feel like too many people are buying into the
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Broncos and too many people are seeing what happened with
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the Jags and the Texans and it's the polar us.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: It's that it's really more likely the middle is what's
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: likely going to happen. Next game up, Houston Texans at
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. The Texans twelve and a half point underdogs.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Right now, everything pointing to the Browns. Bets on the Browns,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: money on the Browns. Quick take, quick take so far.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: By the way, this is our third game. Nothing feels
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: like a five favorite to me. Um, nothing feels like
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: a signment says certainly, don't feel like a foxhole on
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: this one. What do you got? I actually thought this
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: would be a foxhol with you, Chad, because it feels
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: like we're me the only professional is that gonna just
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: tell people to take the Browns. All right, Well, listen,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you said that, because that's the side I
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: would want. But I was actually nervous to say it
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: because it felt so square to take a nearly two
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: touchdown favorite. But I think are gonna kill him. This
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: is the time it's square. It's definitely square. And this
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: is where we've been burned by Baker. I mean we
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: actually on the other side of it. When I think
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: it was Chubb stepped out of bounce at the two
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: yard line so they didn't cover. I think we're on
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the other side of that when we got lucky with it. Uh,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the Browns love to get back door. They love to
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: get back door. Um that we later just saw with
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But that was Patrick my homes So it
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: doesn't make me as scared. It's Tyrod Taylor that was
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be down big and having to be coming back.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: But I had this at thirteen and a half, So
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half eleven and a half, where it
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: keeps fluctuating, that's good value to me. As long it's
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: under two touchdowns, I like it. Um, it'll be scaring,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: We're gonna we probably end up having this one of
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: the contest because, like I always tell Chat, I like
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: having one or two favorites in the contest. Man, Like
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: you just said, this is so chalky. It is so chalky.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: But it's situation where Houston had a huge win at
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: home in a divisional game. Now they're going on the road.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: They're feeling pretty good with a rookie head co coach
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: putting against the Browns two. I think they showed be
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: something in that game against the Chiefs. I mean they
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: really did. Again, Baker did typical Baker. Think Baker plays
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a great game and that hasn't meltdown in the most
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: important moment of the game. And I just want to
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: be too hard on Baker, but this is what he
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: keeps doing. Like that three and out he had in
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the playoffs last year and Chad Henny was playing for
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, that it's gonna haunt him forever that like
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: all he had to do was not go three and out,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: get a drive going, and they were gonna beat the Chiefs.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: But I have to believe in the coaching staff of Cleveland.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I have to believe in that Cleveland defense that let's
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: face it, they shut down to Kansas City for about
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: two and a half quarters. They they looked really good
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: against Chiefs. So people are gonna overreact. They're gonna take
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Houston because of that win last week. I think we're
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to get a good number on the
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: brown just because the Browns lost that heartbreaking one game
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: last week. That's a huge number to think about. Is
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: one of our five faves. Yeah, it's it's tough for
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: our five. It's it's a big number. It's big. That's
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: why I like it, though I do love I love it.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: As a play I I might want to play it
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: right now. You said it's fluctuating twelve and a half
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half or twelve and a half, eleven
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: and a half, twelve and a half, eleven and a half.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I had a thirteen and a half of my ranks,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: and so it feels like if it's going to do
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: anything at this point, which is Tuesday afternoon, it feels
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: like it's going to go up, not down. So if
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: you want it, now is the time to get it.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: It's fair, I would say it's fair. It's it's one
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: of these things that I do think professionals are coming
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to the Texans, like Brandon Cooks look pretty good for them,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: and it just seems like they could move the ball.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: But again, I think people are going to realize the
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Jaguars defense is terrible, especially compared to this Brown's defense.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: The totals at about forty seven and a half. I
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: would take the over. Both these teams have guys that
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: can make plays in the score. Next game, Buffalo Bills
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: at Miami Dolphins. Bills visiting the Miami Dolphins. Oh, this
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: is a good one. This is such a good one.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: It looks like the Bill are three and a half
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: point road favorites. The Bills at this point in time
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: getting seventies six percent of the tickets. Man man to
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: will look terrible. I don't know how anybody can say
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: they keep buying into TWA. The Bills did exactly what
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: they thought we thought they would do. Josh Allen wouldn't
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: be as good. Their running game was pretty non existent.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: They didn't even try to play the running game, to
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: be honest. The Steelers Ben looked like a savvy veteran
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: who when they needed a throw to be made, he
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: was making it. They played an exquisite game in the
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: second half. I like the Dolphins. I just love that
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: you poop pooed him going up to New England and
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: winning in Week one against Bill Belichick. By the way,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: that's not that hard to do. I don't know what
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: you're talking about. You just said to it to it
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: didn't look that good in that game. I thought he
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: played good. He had won one or two really stupid decisions.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: But again, he's a young quarterback. Yeah, like I still,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: I have not seen any thing from him that makes
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: me think, oh, yeah, this is a guy who's gonna
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: be anything other than a game manager. I have not
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: seen anything that from him that shows me playmaking ability.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Um that interception at the end of the game. I
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: if that interception had cost us a win, Honest to god,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: I may have driven to New Jersey h to explain
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: to you why I'm so against tah in a very
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: polite way, So you gotta be patient. I I didn't
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: even flinch, and I had done in that big Matt
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Ryan Robin that I had, so the money line, that's
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: one of those things where it was a situation. We
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: talked about fading the rookies last week, and if we
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: just listened to ourselves, it would have been three and
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: out against the spread, and on the money line, so
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I can see why people are coming on the bills.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Of course, like like you just said, too, wasn't that impressive.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: It wasn't that great of a win to the public.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: It's only seventeen to sixteen that they beat New England.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: I can't deal with the bills. I can't do it.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: I had this set three. So if it's three and
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: a half and it's gonna go, I think it's gonna
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: get the four. With my degree, I think it's gonna
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: keep moving up because I think the public will keep
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: throwing in the bills to every teaser, every money line parlay.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: It just feels like the same thing. Last week we
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: stepped in it with Green Bay. It feels like that's
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: gonna have with the bills this week. It's like not
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: that I feel I think they're feeling the effects. But
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: I watched a lot of the press conference of these
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: guys after that lost the Dealers. They did not handle
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: that ship well. They're they were just like, man, people
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: are so freaking out, like the whole world's and in like,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: like I get it. We have high expectations, but it's
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: not that big of a deal. And it's like I
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: don't know that was one of those games. It's like
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: they gave away. They dominated Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh literally won
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: that game in the fourth quarter. They were they were down, um,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: what was it ten to six in the fourth quarter
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and they end up winning that game. Classic pros
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: versus shows public's gonna coming heavy on the Bills, Jet
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Me and you were gonna take another home dog in Miami,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: especially at three and a half. Four. We'll talk if
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be in our our five picks, but
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: as of right now on Tuesday, I wouldn't do because
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna better get better value. So if
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: this line keeps moving, then then we'll maybe we'll talk
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: about a four or four and a half, right but
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna be one of our five picks.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: At least it's going to be part of the conversation.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Like I'm definitely circling it because I love Miami. Here
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: at home coming off a big win. That defense is
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: so good. Uh, it feels like a great spot. And
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: it's why we do the podcast on Tuesday and Thursday
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: because so many of these lines move that on Thursday
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: we might be getting better opportunities we gotta pay attention
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: to it. Um uh total forty seven and a half
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: uh any thoughts there under this is gonna be a
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: great Um, this is gonna be a great one. That's
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: part of the money line parlay. Yeah, it's that would
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: definitely be a sweat because to me this is this
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: feels like the Bills win by a field goals. But
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: I would definitely put in with values there, making this
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: an underdog money line parlay. Uh. All right, man, Poor
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. It's gonna be so hard for this team
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: that had people lining up at seven am in Orchard
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Park to tailgate and have little babies getting baptized by
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: busting little little cloth tables. Um to go into to
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: start the year and have the Dolphins, who we loved
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: in the a f C divisional preview? Is the best
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: value to win that division? Um be leading the division.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: That's that's gonna be rough this next game Overreaction City
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colds. Right now, I have
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: the Rams four point favorites on the road of the
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: bets of the money, I discount the money at this
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: point because sometimes the money remembers it's a little too
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: early to really get a good gay But geez, Louise
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Cults plus four, sign me up. We have to do it.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: I hate this is why I hate my job. Though.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to bet this game, but I
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: have it. At two and a half. I have to
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: bet a lot of money on this game. Now. Now
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: I have to bet the money line. It's so sickening
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: about this job. But Tip, this is, like you just
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: talked about, this is such a classic. Any team that
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: wins in primetime, I like usually fade him after week
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: one because it's just the public is just so in
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: on them. They won their all their bets off this
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: team in prime time. So for me, this line is
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: like I couldn't believe how much it moved already. Um
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: that that's just setting up to me that I'd wait
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: on this one as well. I don't the professionals might
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: come in on it, but I think by the time
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: we do Thursday Show, you might be able to get
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: another half a point, like go up to four and
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: a half. So I'll keep waiting. It just seems like
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the money is just keep flooding in on this and
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: this is one of these where I have no doubt
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: in my mind that one of these plus four plus
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: four and a half home dogs. There's no way they
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: don't went out right. This is just this is just
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the tip of coal. Everyone picked the Rams win the
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Everyone's you know, they're feeling reaffirmed in their
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: position because the Rams look like the far superior team
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: against the Bears. And it was seven with the Rams
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: and the Bears have the ball. Everyone in the back
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: of their mind was like, oh my god, the Bears
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: might come back and win this game. But then Andy
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Dalton turned back into a Pumpkins. They're not playing any
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Dalton again in this upcoming week. I think they're playing
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: a much much better offense in the Colts, where again
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz has his problems, but I saw a little
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: flashes in that that game against the Seahawks where he
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: got kind of looked like he was figuring it out
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: there towards the end. I tell me what you saw,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: because I'm wondering the same thing, like like, did I
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: see enough from the Colts to make me think they're
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: a good team or is this only fading sort of
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: popular opinion. No, that's fair. Maybe that's one of the
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: reasons we don't put in our picks because Carson make
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: need a little more time. Um, because he's still hold
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: onto the ball too long. It's it's ridiculous how this
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: guy doesn't learn from everything that happened in Philodoptera, where
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: his biggest problem was holding onto the ball too long,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: trying to do too much instead of just taking what
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the defense was giving him. And he was doing that
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: as soon as they got down. He started looking deep
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: instead have taken that underneath stuff. So that's a that's
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: a fair point by you. Maybe I am a little
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: too hyped up about the number. I should take a
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: step back and think about that, because again, what has
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Carson wan showed us to really back him. I don't
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: know if he's worthy of being our our five picks.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: The flip side the Rams, and thank you for that compliment,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: by the way. The narcissist in me appreciates it. Uh,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: the Rams, by the way. Then I think the Bears
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: were driving again, and I kept texting with my buddy Matt,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: because of course, you know, we were watching this in
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: pure misery. The Rams were not doing that much on offense.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: The score looks bad, but that was like before it
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: got out of hand, it was two or three plays
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: against the Bears that the really Rams. The Rams just
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: threw the ball over the top. The Bears had social
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: distancing worthy defensive breakdowns, and um, they got caught, but
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: they did a pretty good job defending underneath. They did
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: a really good job defending against the run. I thought
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: David Montgomery played lights out and was amazing against that
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Rams front four and Andy Dalton. He completed the passes
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: he needed to complete. He made some pretty good plays.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: They just couldn't sort of punch it in and they
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: gave too much away with those over the top throws.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I wasn't that impressed with the Rams. I was pleasantly
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: surprised with the Bears, and I thought it said more
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: about the Rams, where yeah, they're not a complete team,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: but you can see how they lost some pieces on defense.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: They've lost their de coordinator and there was just a
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: little things like that where Okay, they might have been
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: the number one defense last year, the Rams, but as
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: we all know, and football teams always have a little
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: bit of aggression, I think their aggression on defense might
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: be a lot more than we expect. The next game
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: sand for Cisco forty Niners at Philadelphia Eagles. I love
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: everything about this game. I love everything about betting the
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Eagles in this game. Simon says, Simon says, bet the Eagles,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: sis sis one, Simon says, do it, says, I love it.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: The overreaction to me will be that the forty Niners
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: team defense isn't as bad as they looked against the lines.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: That was all people to say. That was just junk
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: time going in. I had a lot of doubts about
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: this secondary. That was why I was so high about
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: taking those points. Again, obviously I was off. I had
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: that line at five. It ended it. It closed at
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: eight and a half, and that's where the number landed
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: at eight. Or they could have kicked that fieldball at
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: the end there chat Andy would have landed right on
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: five and my genius, I don't know the fact that
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: it four Downards came out of that game with a
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: couple of major injuries. They had another injury to their
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: running back, get the injury to their number one cornerback,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: and that poor guy Jason Barrett. I I feel terrible
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: for him. He's super talented. He played great last year
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: but in Los Angeles for the Chargers, and it feels
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: like every other year he just gets some kind of
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: devastating injury. So let's just see what we talked about
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: in the whole offseason chat when people told me I
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: was a homer. When I kept saying hundred and one,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: take Hurts wh m v PI, there was value there
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: just because it's the Lamar Jackson of fact. Lamar came
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: in a second year and he was just fantasy. He
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: was like fantasy Gangbusters, the guy I was running for
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: all these yards, scoring all these touchdowns. I said, we
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: had the same upside here with Hurts. If they use
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: him right in this offense, they have him running, passing, scoring,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: this guy could have great value a hundred and one.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I think he's already down out of four to one
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: m v PI, which might be a reaction a week
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: one Atlanta could suck and be terrible, or Chris Raymond
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: can be spot on when he talked about the Eagles
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: have the best offensive line and the best defensive line.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: So Eagles are so locked in or right now, I
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: think this offense is humming this this game too. We're
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about the over. I love the over as well,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: but I could see the Eagles having the most points
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: in this game. Where I saw Jimmy g I don't
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: think he played flawless. I think he got he got
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of help from the lines defense.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: So when we're just talking about going from playing the
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: lines the Eagles defense, obviously it's a big step up.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Eagles defensive much better back to back road games as
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: well for the four nine ers. That's another reason just
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: to be on this Eagles team. But three and a half,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: you're giving me the kicker as well. I don't need
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: a chat taking Egos money line. This is an hour
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: right winning for the Eagles here, so I am almost
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: hunching my positive. This is one of our five picks. Agree.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: I'm with you all the way. Saw this squared that
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: circle that to whatever I had to do. You reference Raybon.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: I do want to remind people Chris Raybon is one
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: of the Action print analysts, host the Action Network uh
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: NFL podcast Action Network channel Go download and subscribe. Um,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: he was all over the Eagles in this, and then
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: our show convinced me Simon was all over the Falcons
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: and it was a really contentious point and showed me
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: the difference between a guy who approaches it from an
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: analytics metrics data perspective and a guy who uses all
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: that but also is a professional better who looks at
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: markets and and things like that. And Raybond loved the
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Eagles for all these reasons, and the game played out
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: exactly like he would say, and I just thought that
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: was amazing and it lit up like all the signals
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: were there. I saw the Niners favorite in this game,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, this is a to Eagles almost to
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the point where maybe we're too enthusiastic. Yeah, this might
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: be Washington over again, because this this just feels a
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: layoff where it's like all the signs point to the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Eagles being the easiest bet here. So we might be
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: in some humble pie come next Tuesday, or we're going
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: to be champions. We next game Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears are three point favorites in this game.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: The totals forty four and a half. It's a really
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: interesting matchup, you know. I love the Bears. Definitely performed
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: better than expected. Bengals did exactly what you said they
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: would do. They covered that game, went over everything you
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: said that would happen happened. The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: back handicapped this from me. By the end of the week,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: I really started to come around Cincinnati. I had enough. Again,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: that's my favorite part of my job is I do
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: have these contacts in the desert, and if they reach
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: out to me and these old times your talent information,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: I might be an asshole poopoo like I did with
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Green Bay and gets smacked around when the Saints are
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: up thirty eight the three, or I can listen to
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: him like I did with the Cincinnati Bengals. And it's
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: one of those where I was worried about Joe and I
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: I had multiple people reach out to me said, hey,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Joe's looked great in practice, and so has Jamaar Chase,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: and this is one of these where you should take
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: this number and you should take the over I got.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: I got lucky there that over last week, the Vikings
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: didn't wake up till midway through the third quarter and
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: it went to overtime, and basically all I needed was
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: a field goal to get to overtime, and that's what happened.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: That's when we overhead. So it's a game where I
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: believe the Bengals are overvalued, of course, but are they
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: not properly valued. This line feels like what exactly it
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: should be. It's three and it hasn't moved, which is
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: making me a little scared. Where it's like, Okay, if
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I had to pick a side, I'm gonna take the
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: home team and the Bears here when it's three where
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: this this game is a coin flip. But the no
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: movement the bagas might be telling you we have a
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: trap here and the Bears are gonna win this pretty easily,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: But the numbers say otherwise. With Joe Burrow, he's seven
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: to and one. I believe as a home as a
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: road dog in his young career. So against the spread,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I would normally take the Bears chat, but because of
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: your voodoo with the Bears, I guess we can't put
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: them in our five because it's never worked out for
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: us whenever we we both love the Bears, that's when
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: you shouldn't take the Bears. So we might be falling
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: to a trap here. But man minus three with the
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: Bears at home, with your defense against Joe Burrow, I
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: have to take the Bears. I just that's too good
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: of a number not to take. Yeah, it does feel
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit like it's too short, right. You know,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: I think that taking my biases out of the way,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: taking them out of the way, that's the same principles
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: and theories apply to this game that they do to say,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: the Rams game right where you have to take a
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: little bit of the shine off the Bengals for what
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: they did against the Vikings and a little bit of
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the sort of grossness off the Bears for how badly
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: it looked against the Rams, and go with the short number.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: So I can't disagree with you at all. Yeah, and
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: again people were getting a star hard time the lines.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: People wasn't like I was taking tell you to take
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: the Bears all last week at seven and a half,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: that was also supposed to be a sharp number of
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: primetime game. Wherever all the public was coming in on
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: the Rams, I stayed away. I end up taking the Rams.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: We took them as well in our Survivor contest. It's
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: again I paid for Detroit, Like, I bet that seven
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: a half for three months. So people that didn't think
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: that was that hurt me. It killed me. That was
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: that was a five figure loss. But I bet the eight,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: I bet the eight and a half, I bet the nine,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: I bet the nine a half and when it got
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: to ten minus, I took that too, but I just
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: didn't put that much on it. But you just can't
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: bet it just on Tuesday, and then if the numbers
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: moving against what you bet, you just sit there and go, well,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: I already bet at seven and a half. I don't
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: want to invest anymore now that it's eight and a
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: half nine and a half. Now you have to trust
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: yourself and what you believe in and bet these things.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: It's it's scary. It definitely is when the whole public
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: and the pros are going against you. But again, you
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: have to trust the numbers you're putting out there. That's
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: why I was just so big in the lines where
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: everyone hated so much. I knew it was gonna come
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: through where the Bears were different. I heard plenty of
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: professionals say, no, this is too. I have a number
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: of the Rams. It's their first game with Stafford take
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: the seven half. We stayed away from that luckily, so
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: we're not suckers for the Bears here. We're pretty smart
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: when we do and do not take the Bears. Las
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers. Las Vegas Raiders five and
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: a half, six and a half. I don't have a
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: read on this right now. I mean, we have to
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: take the Steelers. I don't. I just talked about fading
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: these times, these teams off prime time. It's it's a
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: system I've stuck to in these early weeks, my whole
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: life doing this. I do believe this is a fair number.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I had it at five, so right now I actually
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: am leading towards value being on the Raiders. But man,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: coming off that win, especially that way going on the road.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Now they're playing arguably one of the best defenses in football. Uh,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I'll say, I'll say Baltimore is pretty good too. We
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: talked about their injuries though Jim B. Smith was out,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: like they just lost Marcus Peters. They've had some major jews.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is healthy, and the biggest fear of Pittsburgh is
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: they're they're they're playing them on the most. They're they're
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: the teams with like I think it was them the
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Lions and might even the Jags, or maybe the Jets
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: started the most rookies and the rookies played the most
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: snaps Week one. It's a little scary of the Pittsburgh
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: because I think we talked about it we liked Oakland
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: coming in this year. I gave out Derek Carr fifty
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: one the legal League in passing. I guess she's number
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: one in league in passing right now. Chad our good
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: friend Derek Carr of the Las Vegas Raiders every time.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, So if you're if you're a homer here
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: for for Vegas, I get it. You can take take them,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: take the money line. I have to fade what they're
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: coming off of, and I have to take a team where.
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: I love Pittsburgh. I love their defense there, They're why
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: are receiving corps in the Dallas Corps. It just seems
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: like they're gonna be on these teams that no matter what,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh always gonna be in games because they have three
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: dominant receivers sam as Dallas. So I like this number.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I think it's a fair price. And we had to
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: take some favorites, don't we chat? So this is one
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: of those the mad to the list. I like Pittsburgh
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: this upcoming a week, I don't. I don't hate it.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it at all. Uh, I can't. I
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: can't argue with you because the next game I do
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: want to talk about I don't want to spend too
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: much time on Steelers Raiders, but I like the under
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: in that game as well. For eight and a half.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: It scared me a little bit. The pros came in
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: so heavy on the over. But I do like the
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: under in that game. This next game, it's gonna test
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: all of our principles and philosophies. New England Patriots at
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: New York Jets. The Patriots five and a half point
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: favorites on the road against the New York Jets, two
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks, rookie coach in the New York Jets home
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: debut for Zach Wilson and Robert Sale, Bill Belichick coming
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: off a home loss with Mac Jones, who looked good, manageable,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: made the right throws. Sometimes you gotta do gross things.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: I will put the Jets in my money line, parlay
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: with the Eagles with the Dolphins hundred percent doing that.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Don't do it, don't do yeah, Or I guess he
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: does cover against rookies. I think he's fourteen and twelve,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: but he mainly just wins. I think he's twenty and
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: three against rookie straight up, something crazy like that. So
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: or maybe it's twenty and six straight up against rookies. UM,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: I love the Jets here. This is an inflated line.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: It's the same thing where last week when you called
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: me up and you said, all right, who are we taking?
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I said, we either have to take the Jets five
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: and a half. You gotta take the Bengals three and
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: a half. We gotta take the Lines seven and a half.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: One of these teams is not going to cover, though.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: We have to figure out which one it is. We
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: messed up. We left the Jets out and end up
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: being the Lines not covering by half a point. So
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: it's a smart line. It feels like Vegas is gonna
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: be really smart with this Jets team this season. UM
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of injuries. That's the biggest fear with me
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: with this Jets team. That's the only reason I'm not
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: like definitely putting this in our five because I loved it.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Even last week before they even played, I knew, no
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: matter what, the pub was gonna becoming heavy heavy on
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, no matter what their outcome of their game was.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: I thought Mac looked good. Honestly, Mac Jones played pretty
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: well for them. He had that one dumb pick um,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: but other than that I thought he played smart, But again,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: it's a big number for a rookie quarterback on the road.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: And I liked what I saw from the Jets defense
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: in their second half adjustments against Carolina. Carolina scored sixteen
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: points in the first half. I think they only scored
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: three in the second half. So it's a divisional game, Chad,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: how can we not take the home dog in the
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: divisional game? Already there with Miami, we're doing again here
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: with the Jets. We're we're kind of setting ourselves up
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: for major failure here. But five and a half weight
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: on this. It's gonna keep getting bet up. This is
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: definitely on the six in my opinion, this is like,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: how does the public not keep betting this up? They're
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: gonna love the Bell Belichickstad we just talk abowy and
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: six straight up. Everyone's gonna be putting this one in
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: their teaser. We're gonna have another conversation about that on Thursday.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: That that Jets game. I've I've circle squared it right now.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: The game the games that I know we're gonna want
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: to have another conversation about on Thursday, the Bills visiting Miami,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: the Niners visiting the Eagles, since he visiting the Bears,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: the Raiders visiting the Steelers, the Paths visiting the Jets,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: those are all games that we're definitely gonna want to
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: have a deeper conversation. And I forgot to say my team.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: I got a bunch of money on was that Eagles game?
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: Got it well? Obviously, Simon says yeah. And so just
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: as soon as I hit three and a half, I
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: pounced on it. I I was waiting for it to
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: hit do number because I knew the public coming on
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: the fourt niners. And now I'm just gonna keep waiting
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: to hope it goes to four. I'm gonna keep waiting
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: hope it goes for because I don't want to. I
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: want to get the best of the number now, and
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: I think it's going in that direction. New Orleans Saints
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: at Carolina Panthers. The Saints are going to be road favorites.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: They're about a four point road favorite right now. Again,
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: give me, give me against the overreaction. Of course, I
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: want to take the Panthers here. I died two. We
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: might have to wait till Thursday. Talked about this game
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: just because I saw that the Saints might have an
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: outbreak right now on their coaching staff with COVID so
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: coming in, I was all in on Carolina. Now feels
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: like it's the easy take to make that we like Carolina,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: but um, we can talk about that on Thursday. Once again,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: more information, we'll see who as COVID, if Sean Payton
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: is gonna be able to be there. It's again it's
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of the movie parts of season with COVID.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: So this is our first really major one that this
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: could shake up something. So as we're standing right here,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: if you have to make a pick in this game,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: I would take Carolina in the four, but I would
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: wait on that to get it more information. Minnesota Vikings
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: at Arizona Cardinals. Minnesota right now is a three and
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: a half point underdog. I kind of thought it would
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: be more. I thought there would be a bigger overreaction.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: So to me, this feels a little bit like a pass.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: It was was four and a half the proceed it,
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: so that's it's a pro game overreaction. Cardinals looked like
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: the best team in Week one. Chandler Jones had five sacks. Yeah,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: we we uh we talked about while we were down
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: on Tennessee Chad. They got rid of John new Smith,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: aregably one the best run block uh pass blocking tight
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: ends in the league, and Corey Davis another top five
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: run block pass blocking wide receiver. So we saw what
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: happened Derrick Henry against the Cardinals. He really couldn't do much.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: He had no blocking, so the offensive line had troubles
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: handling the Cardinals defensive line. Overreaction to the moon in
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: this game, the fact that the bookmakers only moved to
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: a point let you all you need to know. And
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: the public is gonna come in so heavy on the Cardinals,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: so either stay away, you take Minnesota in this game. Um,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: I understand why you don't want to put in our five.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: But again, this one we're probably gonna talk about Thursday.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe we're gonna feel a little better about it. Yeah,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: but if I'm already not getting the better the best
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: of the number, like from a it's perspective, I want
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: nothing to do with it. These lines move though, That's
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: what I'm trying to say to you. Like the public,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: the public love the bet Sunday eleven am. It's that
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: that's true. So like Sunday at eleven am, and you
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: should watch. Convince me to get the latest on the
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: lines at Actual Network h Q Sundays at eleven am Eastern. Uh.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: This game could go back up to four and four
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: and a half, and that's what we want. We wanted
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: to get back up there all three and a half.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: That's not worth the value. It's a wait weight on
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: the game. Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, our favorite team.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: We promised this was going to be in Atlanta Falcons
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: podcast all year because we love this team so much.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Then they go out and do Falcons lax because that's
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: what they did. Falcons visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Champa Bay.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Right now, the Falcons are eleven and a half point underdogs.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Put it on the Falcons, folks, thank you, Chad. Yep,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: throw it on the Falcon's money line as well. Hornets nest.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: We're walking into a hornets nest. I'm walking to a
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll be my companion. Really,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: you're just saying it already. This is the definition of
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: a hornet's nest. I don't even need your approval on this.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: I'm right, aren't I. Scott Miller are a good friend
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: has me doing real work for your company out Chad,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: and it's a shame he makes me going. I have
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: to put in from my assystem where I think each
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: spread should be and what the over under should be.
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: I guess he puts it into some who knows what.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of nerdy stuff. It's a magic machine, yeah, exactly.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: So I was scared to even do it because uh,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Sean and Stucky both put their numbers in there, and
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: they weren't anywhere close to mine. But I didn't. I
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: had this had seven and a half of Atlanta. Uh
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: love the love the money line Divisional game. Atlanta couldn't
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: have played any worse against the Eagles. That that's just
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: like the green bag game. We're gonna talk about how
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: to throw out game. That's how the Atlanta game felt.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: I think their offensive line has the lowest grade in
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus, which is uh a little scary because
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: we're going against arguably one of the best d lines
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: in all football. But Atlanta is not gonna run the
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: ball anyway. They're a passing team. And we saw how
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: awful and banged up this buck in your secondar area is,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: so give it to me, give me, give me. Those
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: points live for the back door in this game. We
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: are never gonna be out of this game. Even if
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: it's thirty to ten, We're still in this game. Chat.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: So this this number, it's coming down a little bit.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: I think open thirteen and a half now it's down
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: to twelve or eleven and a half as certain books. Yeah,
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: I would tell you to jump on it, but the
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: pros could be done. The pros could be waiting for
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: it to go back up. So I don't know. That's hard.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: I I like, I feel so bad now about the
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Lions last week, people taking a seven and a half.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: You can see. I'm scared to tell people take these
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: big numbers on Tuesday. But if you like this number,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: take it already have but you can keep waiting because
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: I do think by Sunday this money line is gonna
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: go up as well. Is this a candidate for a
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: money line parlor? This is definitely gonna be in the
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: round robin. Wow. I always throw a big one in
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: there because you only have to hit it once or
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: twice a year and you get your money backs temfold.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Like fifty for Detroit. They had the ball on the
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: twenty five yard line with a chance to tie the
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: game and go to overtime. That's where we live for it, Chad,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: So I'll take it again. If it's a plus three hundred,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: we're more than happy plus four and are more than
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: happy to take it. Do we worry at all that
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: the Falcons looked so bad that none of the stuff
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: we thought they would be good at that my Matt
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: Ryan thirty eight to one to lead the league and
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: touchdown passes looks d o A like they looked terrible
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Or was the Falcons or the Eagles defense just that good.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: That's the hardest part about Week one because they look
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: absolutely lost. Just the blocking scheme for Atlanta. They started out,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: so I mean, they really the dominating the Eagles on
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: the front. They're running the ball down the Eagles throat,
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: They're they're passing it all the way down the field.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: They kept selling for field goals, and all of a
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: sudden it just flipped and they got out schemes. So
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: you could be right, I could be over not giving
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: too much credit to Arthur Smith, but I truly believe
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: in him as a coordinator. Now I believe him as
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: a head coach. So it's one of those r have
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: to trust my numbers and again if they lay another
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: egg here, of course, Chad, I'm gonna be updating this
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: and maybe I'm way too high on this Atlanta Falcons team. Look,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: you should remind people usually take three or four weeks
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: for professional betters and for bookmakers to really adjust power ratings,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Like you gotta get a sample um and the trust
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: what you believe going in. Yeah, you can't just change
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: it out. You can't be the public and overreact after
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: one week. Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: are very small favorites in this game. The Chargers are
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites. Very low number, very
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: low number, too much of a coin flip for us
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: to putting the on to us that there's certain games
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: or it feels like both defenses are lacking in areas
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: where the offenses are going against are so high powered. Yeah,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: I'm never gonna feel comfrom this game. The Chargers could
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: be up by thirteen, I won't feel great. I could
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: have Dallas and they could be up by thirteen. I'm
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: still gonna be nervous because their defense is so bad.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: So I'm coolest anyway, I have this one, but I
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: I will be betting the Chargers. I can just see
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: the public coming in heavy on the Cowboys and two
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: and a half under a field goal of the home
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: team that I believe has the better team all around
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: than the Cowboys. I'm happy to take Herbert here, So
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: give me the Chargers of minus two and a half. Yeah,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: I agree like I don't think we want to make
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: it a top five pick, but I do almost automatically
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: a team as good as we think the Chargers are
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: less than a less than a field goal, that's an
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: auto play for me. Yeah, that was an impressive win.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: You went on they went on the road week one
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: with a coach, and that they really played well in
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: that game against a really good defense. The total in
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: this game is fifty five, and if you gotta thought
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: so high the process, take the under. But I know
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: how secretly I'm fidett bet this over because it's such
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: a fun game. But I already know I'm about to
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: get five phone calls right when this podcast comes out
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: because you have to bet this under. So I'll do
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: the professional thing and tell people you take this under.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: And now a word from our friends at Fandel. The
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: NFL is back and FanDuel Sports Book wants you to
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: get the most out of every play. That's why they're
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: giving everyone a ten dollar risk free bet every week.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: All you have to do is bet the same game
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: parlay bet with three legs or more, and if your
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: bet doesn't win, fandel will pay you back up to
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: ten dollars. For example, this Thursday night, I'm considering the
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Washington football team moneyline, the under and Daniel Jones rushing
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: yards over. And remember, if you see an s GP
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: logo under a listed game, then same game parlays are available.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: Vandul sports Book is known for being fast, easy and secure,
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: and there's no feeling like nailing a same game parlay bet.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: So lock in your bet today at FanDuel sports Book
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: and get up to ten bucks back if your bet
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: doesn't win. New to Fandul sports Book, they are also
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: offering a risk free one thousand dollar bet if you
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: prefer that to sign up with Promo Code Favorites and
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: if your first bet loses, you can get up to
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars back in site credit. That's Promo Code Favorites.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older. In president in Arizona, Colorado,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: Indiana Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia first
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: online real money wager only refund issued as non withdrawal
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: site credit that expires in fourteen days. Restrictions apply see
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: terms at sports book dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling problem
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: slash r G in Colorado, New Jersey, in Virginia one
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: eight nine with it in Indiana one eight hundred seven
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: zero one seven for confidential help in Michigan one hundred
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee. Visit
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia or
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: call one eight hundred next step or text next step
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: to five two in Arizona. Let's get back to the show.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks. The Titans are big, big
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: dogs in this game, relatively speaking. It opened to three
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's now at five and a half.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Seattle I thought played amazingly well against the Colts, and
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: a really good Colts defense like that Colts defense is
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: no joke, so um, tell me why I wouldn't take
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks here. I'm trying hard not to overreact. Um,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: but everything I just talked about them losing Johnny Smith
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: on the best best blocking tight ends them losing Corey
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Davids from the best blocking receivers. The coach is already
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: sucking shit about Julio Jones after the first game, saying
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: that he needs to shut up. So hate the vibes
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: come out, Tennessee. This is one of the bigger unders
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: we had coming into the season. I was really down
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: on them, and I a lot of people were pissed
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: that I was bad mouth in Tennessee. I think they're
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: starting to see what I was seeing, that this team
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: had a lot of just change coming it's way, especially
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: after losing Arthur Smith and the Falcons and the Seahawks,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: that they always come out of the gates playing well.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: That that was a bad reby meeting to think taking
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: the Colts last weekendst them. So I'm not doing again
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: this week. Seahawks having fans back at home, twelve man
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Tannehill on the road, I love it. Fade them here.
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: This this to me chat if we get a good
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: number here, if this stays at five under six, I
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: have no problem putting this of our five best. This
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: is one of the favorites. I do like this. I
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: completely agree. I love this game. Let's lock it in now, dude,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: we're done, We're done, put it in. I might go
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: bet this right now. As soon as we get off
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: the podcast, I'm gonna go bet this game. Kansas City
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens. Right now, I'm looking at the
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: Chiefs three and a half point favorites. It opened it one,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: obviously changing from last night. Oh gosh, easy, easy bet.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: Chad already knows what we're doing here. Prime time game,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: home dog just lost an embarrassing fashion and prime time
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: love it. Public. Please keep betting the Chiefs because I
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: would love a better number than four. Keep give me
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: four and a half, give me five. I would love
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: it to take it here. We've seen the Chiefs. They
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: can't stop the run. Chad and the Ravens they just
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: keep picking guys up. I mean, they made Murray look
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: young last night running the ball. So I like this
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: matchup a lot for the Ravens. Um Even if the
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: Chiefs come out firing, they get an early lead, they're
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: never gonna be out of this game. This is especially
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: it's the home opener for them, So people, I get it.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: I hate it too. It's not gonna be one of
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: me and Chad's fives most likely. Um, just because it's
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: terrifying going against Patrick my Homes. It is the most
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: terrifying thing ever. So I love the plus floor. But
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna tell anyone to take the money line
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: here because my Homes hasn't lost in September and eleven
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: games eleven straight wins in September from home, so it's
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: not worth betting against him at this point. So I
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: will not be taking the Raven's money line, but I
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: will be taking the plus four. Monday Night football, Ugly,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: ugly game, hard one handicap Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: Right now, the Packers are eleven and a half point favorites.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: This feels like a stay away from me. Cool staying away,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: but also cool with taking the lines. Um. Personally green
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Bay's defense, Wow, were they bad against the scenes, out
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: coached at every level. Um. I'm hoping that Green Bay's
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: new d C can figure it out pretty quick because
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: he might get fired after just two weeks. He's actually
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: a guy that came from the Rams and they've put
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of expectations on him. He might be just
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: like Zach Taylor, where it's like these guys come from
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: the Sean mcbaigh coaching train. They're just complete duds. Um
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: that that defense look horrible against the Saints again, Aaron
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: Rodgers lead them astray. Um. I think the numbers are
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: he's uh three oh and he averages four touchdowns in
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: our exceptions after games He's had a game like he
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: had yesterday three other times in his career and he's
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: three and oh with four touchdowns and zero exceptions and
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: all three of those games. I just like the over
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: in this game too. I I feel like that's the
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: much safer bet where you're gonna be able to get
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: some junp time touchdowns from Detroit. Here, this back door
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: will open the entire game. Um, and Roger's gonna show
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: up that that was embarrassing, complete dud of a game.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: But let's just take uh, let's take a second here
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: and think about maybe everything Man Mitchell said in the
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: off season is true. This guy has got drama, he's
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: got demons, he's not happy, he doesn't want to play
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: for this team. They got a bunch of turmoil. That's
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: all noise that could all be true. I mean, whatever
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: reason you need, that could be a reason to take
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: the lines. Just off the number base. This number should
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: be ten, eleven, eleven and a half. That's a great
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: number to take the line. So you take the value
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: here and don't even think about it. This is one
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: of these games where I'll probably bet it. I might
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: make plans from Monday night. Maybe I'll go to dinner
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: because this is this is awful. This is an awful game.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's too good. That's awesome. All right,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: let's recap quickly. On Thursday, we will narrow down several
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: of the games that we picked today to our five
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: favorite picks. Right now, we like the Bills at the Fins,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: we like Miami. We're looking at the Niners at Eagles.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: We like the Eagles since at the Bears. We like
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: the Bears, Raiders at Steelers. We like the Steelers, Pats
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: and Jets. We're gonna keep looking at that line. We're
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: gonna wait on it. Probably gonna like the Falcons at
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, Cowboys at Chargers's coin flip. We're gonna keep
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: an eye on the Chargers, though probably not gonna think
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: about us at our top five. Love the Seahawks in
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: this spot, absolutely love them. Those are the games that
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about on Thursday as we narrow it
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: down our Hornets Nest or walking into the Hornets Nest.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking Hornets nest, all right, I'll
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: be my companion. Falcons plus eleven and a half, Simon says,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: bet the Eagles. That's where he has the most early
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: bets so far, that the Eagles underdogs at home. We
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: got money line part ways to talk about on Thursday.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: We've got survivor pool to talk about on Thursday. But
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: I feel like we've given people a pretty good round up.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: But what they want to think about if they want
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: to get in some early bets right now and where
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: our leans are, I know I'm going to get off
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: this call and and start making some places. It's never
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: two really in the weeks. Start firing away to Chad
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: and again. If the line moves against you, people, trust yourself.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: If you if you think I'm full of ship, then
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: just buy out. If you believe in me in my
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: bet with the lines last week, keep hitting these numbers.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: You're you're literally the sports books are giving you value
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: because they need people like you to bet with them.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: Sports books cleaned up last week. That could been to
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: you if you just trusted what you were doing. So
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: it's all really scary. Just make the bets, trust the numbers.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: I believe in you, Simon. I believe in you every
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: single day. Thank your Dad. You are my b f F.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: You are my companion. This has been the favorites from
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: the Value Podcast Network. Download from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast rate review subscribe. Also on Thursday,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: we will be doing the reviews for the people who
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: we are choosing to potentially win one as Signmon's biggest
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: bets of the year. It better be funny, it better
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: be five stars. Can make fun of me, that's fine,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: but don't you dare make fun of my bfs. Simon.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: We will see you again on Thursday. I love you,