Latest / The Morning Edition / Germany had ruled out extremist parties. Then came this election win

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Germany had ruled out extremist parties. Then came this election win · The Morning Edition

0:07
S1: Over the weekend, Germany's far right party trounced its rivals
0:11
S1: in a state election, the closest that a far right
0:13
S1: party has come to holding power in a German state
0:16
S1: since World War Two. The result sent shockwaves through Germany,
0:21
S1: which has since the destruction of the National Socialist Party
0:24
S1: under Adolf Hitler, created a political system that prevents extremist
0:28
S1: parties from returning to power. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and
0:33
S1: you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age and
0:36
S1: The Sydney Morning Herald today, Europe correspondent David Crowe on
0:41
S1: what the rise of the alternative for Germany party means
0:44
S1: for Europe and the rest of the world. It's Wednesday,
0:48
S1: September 9th. Welcome, David, back to the podcast.
0:57
S2: It is great to be back, Sam.
0:59
S1: Okay. well, I can't wait to hear your thoughts on
1:01
S1: this because this election result was just for one part
1:03
S1: of Germany, a relatively small state in the eastern part
1:06
S1: of the country. This wasn't a federal election, and yet
1:09
S1: it has definitely sent shockwaves through the political system. Why?
1:14
S2: The basic reason is that everybody's been watching Germany, and
1:19
S2: in particular this right wing party, the AfD, for many
1:23
S2: years now. It was a minor party, right? It's no
1:26
S2: longer a minor party. It's got mainstream support 44% or thereabouts,
1:32
S2: just shy of 44%, and it's built that up over
1:37
S2: more than a decade, based on the grievances of of
1:41
S2: the German population unhappy at where their country is going.
1:45
S2: And that is fundamentally why this is sending shockwaves, because
1:49
S2: it's a wake up moment, okay? It's no longer just
1:52
S2: a niche group of people who are unhappy.
1:58
S3: AfD supporters erupted in cheer as exit polls on Sunday
2:02
S3: showed the German far right party surging into first place.
2:06
S4: A small eastern German state has delivered a political shock,
2:10
S4: with consequences far beyond Germany.
2:17
S5: 44% of the vote in Sunday's state election is the
2:20
S5: closest the German far right has ever come to governing
2:24
S5: a state since World War Two.
2:27
S2: This is really resonating with a large bloc, almost a majority.
2:32
S2: I mean, there's a chance of a change of government
2:34
S2: here because the vote is so large and that's what's
2:37
S2: done it. I mean, the AfD alternative for Germany is
2:41
S2: their name. They have been promising very hard policies on
2:45
S2: things like migration. One of their policies is remigration. That is,
2:49
S2: you take people who've already come to your country and
2:52
S2: if you don't want them, you deport them. How that
2:56
S2: would work is something that is still really unclear in
3:00
S2: practical ways. However, that is something that they are loud
3:05
S2: and proud about. They use that word all the time
3:08
S2: and they they promise it with a smiling face. Like
3:11
S2: it's a wonderful thing for the future to have remigration
3:14
S2: on a massive scale. And that is what 44% of
3:18
S2: the people in this state of Germany have voted for.
3:22
S1: And of course, it's not just Remigration, right? They're promising
3:25
S1: a ban on gay pride flags at schools, funding cuts
3:28
S1: for teaching, you know, so-called woke subjects. The AfD has
3:32
S1: also said that Islam is incompatible with the German constitution
3:35
S1: and has vowed to conduct mass deportations of immigrants. But
3:39
S1: let's let's talk about this party. Like, how is this
3:41
S1: even possible? Because some of the party's early leaders have
3:44
S1: been exposed for their previous links to a neo-Nazi group,
3:48
S1: and Germany's domestic intelligence agency labeled the AfD as a, quote,
3:52
S1: suspected extremist organization in May last year. So how is
3:56
S1: it still functioning as a legitimate political party? Because I
3:59
S1: thought that the German political system was designed after World
4:02
S1: War II to prevent extremist parties from ever returning to power.
4:07
S2: It has been called extremist by the intelligence service in Germany.
4:10
S2: That happened early in 2025. That was then, I guess,
4:16
S2: appealed by the AfD. And they went to court to
4:20
S2: kind of stop that classification. And that's still the subject
4:23
S2: of legal dispute. But I think this is another aspect
4:28
S2: of the importance of the vote. You've got a large
4:31
S2: base of the population who support the AfD, and that
4:34
S2: in itself sends a signal to the intelligence agency about
4:38
S2: its classification. I mean, I find in this in this
4:42
S2: issue all the time, there is this shifting idea of
4:46
S2: what is the hard right. If it's got 44% support
4:51
S2: among the population, How far is that off the spectrum?
4:56
S2: And this is, you know, a constant argument about redefining
4:59
S2: the political spectrum based on where those voters actually sit
5:03
S2: and how they feel about some of these issues.
5:05
S1: Well, let's talk a little bit more about the, you know,
5:07
S1: the acceptance of this party. Uh, and specifically, can you
5:11
S1: tell us a little bit more about AfD leader Ulrich Sigmond?
5:14
S1: Because Germany's respected weekly news magazine, Der Spiegel called him
5:18
S1: the most dangerous man in Germany last month. So can
5:21
S1: you just give us a feel for who this man
5:23
S1: is and what he represents?
5:26
S2: I think one of the things that makes him dangerous
5:29
S2: in the eyes of so many of his critics is
5:32
S2: his smiling face, his relative youth. He's only 35, and
5:38
S2: his very upbeat persona when he is telling the German
5:45
S2: public about the policies that he wants to put in place,
5:48
S2: which are so hard, you know. So hard, right? He
5:53
S2: rides a blue moped, a scooter that was made in
5:57
S2: East Germany. Right. So he's playing on a sense of
6:00
S2: nostalgia for the olden times. He's often pictured with this scooter,
6:03
S2: and so are other AfD leaders. And this may seem
6:06
S2: like a small thing, but he looks like your average
6:09
S2: guy getting around on a scooter, looking super cool with
6:11
S2: a smile on his face. And there is this element
6:14
S2: of what they call in Germany Ostalgie the nostalgia for
6:19
S2: the old East Germany. His stated promise is to bring
6:22
S2: back some of the safety and security of the olden
6:24
S2: times for Germany. And that's what's resonating, because people are
6:28
S2: so unhappy about where their country is going in this
6:31
S2: sense of this, this sort of agonizing about the state
6:35
S2: of their society. And I think that when critics look
6:38
S2: at him, that's what makes him dangerous, not just the
6:42
S2: policies that they dislike, but the fact that he is
6:45
S2: so effective and, and is resonating so well with the
6:49
S2: German public, at least in his state, of course.
6:52
S1: Well, it's interesting because I know that he told a
6:54
S1: cheering crowd on Sunday, you know, we've made history and
6:56
S1: we're taking our history back. So what exactly is he
7:00
S1: referring to there? Because, you know, as a layperson, you
7:03
S1: hear that and you think about you can't help but
7:05
S1: sort of think about Adolf Hitler in the 1930s because he, too,
7:08
S1: invoked nostalgia for a much earlier time in Germany. You know,
7:12
S1: women wearing sort of, you know, really old fashioned frocks
7:16
S1: and tending their gardens. And it was that whole sort
7:19
S1: of milkmaid sort of stuff. And he was really sort
7:21
S1: of working that nostalgic, uh, angle, I guess, as well.
7:25
S1: So are there shades of that, or is that just
7:27
S1: too long a bow to draw?
7:29
S2: One of the AfD policies is more childcare, more support
7:33
S2: for families. They clearly want larger families. One of the
7:36
S2: themes is they don't want the migrants coming in, especially
7:39
S2: Muslim migrants. They want more people born inside Germany. They
7:43
S2: want to encourage the birth rate. They want to encourage
7:46
S2: family values inside Germany. So I think that, as you
7:49
S2: were saying, that there is an element of that in
7:51
S2: what they're promising when they are asked about the Holocaust,
7:55
S2: when they are asked about the Nazi Party, they, of course,
7:58
S2: deny being the Nazi Party or a Nazi party. They
8:03
S2: duck and weave a bit on on the Holocaust. I mean,
8:06
S2: they they're not direct about condemning what went on when
8:11
S2: Ulrich Siegmann was asked about it recently by Politico. He
8:16
S2: sort of hesitated about whether it was the worst crime
8:19
S2: in history, and he sort of prevaricated on that question.
8:22
S2: You always get this sense that that they sort of
8:25
S2: sidestep the direct issues about those parallels with the 1930s,
8:30
S2: and that just makes people more anxious about why they
8:33
S2: are not more willing to condemn the crimes of the past.
8:37
S2: When people are so worried about what they promise for
8:40
S2: the future.
8:42
S1: After the break.
8:44
S2: They're angry about the direction of their countries, and they
8:48
S2: are reflecting that in their votes. And whatever the faults
8:52
S2: and flaws and I guess false promises that some politicians make.
8:57
S2: There's something that's happening at the base that is driving
9:00
S2: this change.
9:11
S1: And David, I want to ask you about, you know,
9:13
S1: what you think this reflects for Germany more broadly and
9:16
S1: even Europe beyond that, because you're based in London now,
9:19
S1: that's where you are speaking to me. You frequently travel
9:21
S1: around Europe and you report on what's happening in various countries.
9:25
S1: So is this just a protest vote against the ruling
9:28
S1: Christian Democratic Union Party, which is run by Germany's Chancellor,
9:31
S1: Friedrich Merz, who's very unpopular now, or is this about
9:35
S1: much broader beliefs and frustrations? I mean, does a larger
9:40
S1: part of the German electorate, do they also want this
9:43
S1: return to some glorified past that that, uh, the AfD
9:47
S1: is promoting.
9:50
S2: I think it's important to recognize that there is something
9:52
S2: deeper going on. It's not only about the political leaders
9:57
S2: who are making the headlines. And that's true in the
10:00
S2: United Kingdom, where I see Nigel Farage always in the news.
10:05
S2: But I always try and remember that what's really happening
10:07
S2: is what's what matters is what's happening at his support
10:10
S2: base in the community. It's the same in France. It's
10:14
S2: the same in Germany. There are issues that the community
10:17
S2: sees that they're very unhappy about. They're angry about the
10:20
S2: direction of their countries, and they are reflecting that in
10:23
S2: their votes. And whatever the the faults and flaws and
10:29
S2: I guess false promises that some politicians make, there's something
10:33
S2: that's happening at the base that is driving this change.
10:36
S2: And whether it's going to be Ulrich Siegmund or Nigel
10:39
S2: Farage or Marine Le Pen in any of these countries,
10:43
S2: we don't know which politicians will ultimately prevail, but we
10:46
S2: do know that the forces are at work at the base,
10:49
S2: and that reflects unhappiness at the pace of change in communities,
10:53
S2: including with migration. Obviously, the cost of living is really
10:57
S2: pressing on people. And when I was in Germany, in
11:03
S2: a state next to Saxony-Anhalt, I talked to people about
11:07
S2: what was driving the rise of the AfD. And migration
11:12
S2: was certainly one. I mean, I've talked to a lot
11:14
S2: of people who are in various in the UK, in Germany.
11:18
S2: It wasn't just the migration itself, it was the speed
11:21
S2: of the social change to their communities that they didn't like.
11:26
S2: And of course, they've been voting for governments that promised
11:30
S2: to do something about, you know, helping local communities. And
11:33
S2: they don't see change. They don't see the change that
11:35
S2: they want. And so they're fed up with major parties
11:38
S2: and they will vote for somebody like reform UK or
11:42
S2: the AfD.
11:44
S1: And what sort of changes are they wanting? They're not
11:46
S1: seeing is it better access to health care? Is it
11:48
S1: better roads? Is it of course, lower cost of living?
11:51
S1: Is it mainly that that sort of stuff? Or are
11:54
S1: they just, you know, don't want multicultural communities?
11:58
S2: I think there's a large element of the voting bloc
12:00
S2: that don't want multicultural communities. And I think that that's
12:03
S2: something that is very interesting to confront when we've had
12:07
S2: decades of, I guess, consensus that multiculturalism works and that
12:13
S2: it's that it's something to be supported. And that's certainly
12:16
S2: something that is very strongly held in Australia. But when
12:20
S2: you look at some communities in Europe, you see that
12:25
S2: that consensus is fraying, or maybe it's just totally collapsed.
12:28
S2: Now you have people who are against multicultural communities. They
12:32
S2: do not think it works, and they're voting for reform
12:37
S2: UK or they're voting for the AfD. And as we
12:41
S2: can see in Saxony-Anhalt, they're not necessarily the majority. This party,
12:45
S2: AfD got 44%. It didn't get a majority. How that
12:48
S2: plays out we are yet to see. However, it's not just,
12:52
S2: you know, a little niche group of 10% who think this.
12:56
S1: And there's a lot more support, isn't there, for whether
12:58
S1: it's a monoculturalism, as of course, we heard Pauline Hanson
13:01
S1: of One Nation, she was spruiking that, of course, during
13:04
S1: her Press Club speech. And we know that this result
13:07
S1: from the AfD, it's buoyed numerous fans of their policies
13:10
S1: across the globe. Right. And we even saw President Donald
13:13
S1: Trump post an image of an exit poll showing the
13:16
S1: AfD lead to his social media platform, Truth Social. So
13:21
S1: is it just that these views of this particular party, which,
13:24
S1: as you say, have been a concern to many people
13:26
S1: in the political mainstream for more than a decade, are
13:29
S1: they just becoming less taboo as more and more people
13:33
S1: support these views, including someone like, you know, the president
13:36
S1: of the United States?
13:38
S2: There is a global aspect to what's happening because the
13:40
S2: AfD has been conspicuously supported by US Vice President JD Vance,
13:48
S2: and it also has support from the tech billionaire Elon Musk.
13:52
S2: So there are people in the United States that look
13:55
S2: to the AfD, like to see the rise of the AfD.
13:59
S2: There are AfD people who've gone to the United States.
14:02
S2: So there is a sort of an exchange of ideas
14:05
S2: between the AfD in Germany and elements of the Republican
14:08
S2: Party and the Maga movement in the United States. So
14:12
S2: this is something that has helped the AfD learning from
14:16
S2: what's happened in the United States. There's clearly a sense
14:20
S2: of cooperation between the Maga movement and the AfD. And
14:23
S2: that is that is, you know, a key factor in
14:26
S2: why Donald Trump is posting like that.
14:28
S1: And back to the domestic realities in Germany. You alluded
14:32
S1: to this before, because there's a chance that this AfD
14:35
S1: result in the eastern state. It won't hold right? And
14:38
S1: that the AfD actually won't be able to assume power,
14:41
S1: because some rival parties have vowed not to support an
14:45
S1: AfD government. Right. Can you just tell us a little
14:47
S1: bit about that?
14:49
S2: Well, Ulrich Siegmund is now in the box seat to
14:53
S2: form government because he's got 39 or his party has
14:57
S2: got 39 out of 83 seats in the state parliament
15:02
S2: in Saxony-Anhalt. Now, that's you know, that's a result that's
15:06
S2: far exceeds how the AfD has done in other states
15:12
S2: and at a national level. But it's still not a majority.
15:16
S2: The key thing is that the the party, the CDU,
15:20
S2: the party of the Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has just been,
15:25
S2: you know.
15:26
S1: Just trounced.
15:29
S2: Trounced. Yeah. I mean, their voters basically halved. They only
15:32
S2: have 15 seats is how things look. Uh, and that's,
15:37
S2: that's shocking for a party that is the party of government.
15:40
S2: It has the chancellor. It's also been one of the, the,
15:45
S2: the key parties in German democracy since the Second World War,
15:49
S2: leading governments at state and federal level for long periods
15:53
S2: of time. And now it's just being repudiated. And there
15:56
S2: is a parallel, of course, with the fate of the
15:59
S2: Conservative Party in the UK, which is also in a
16:03
S2: state of shock after the last election. And of course,
16:06
S2: we see in Australia, the Liberal Party is is really
16:09
S2: struggling to regroup after the last election. So there's there's
16:12
S2: a there's a bigger dynamic at play here. But if
16:14
S2: you look at the state outcome in Saxony-Anhalt with 39 seats,
16:20
S2: Ulrich Siegmund is in a very good position to form government.
16:25
S2: He needs three more seats to do that. The CDU
16:28
S2: only have 15. The Social Democrats have got eight. The
16:33
S2: Greens have got eight. The left have got eight. And
16:37
S2: there's a party called the BSW, which has got five. Now,
16:41
S2: when you look at that, it's very hard to see
16:44
S2: a coalition of other parties opposed to the AfD who
16:47
S2: are in any position to form a government. The coalition
16:51
S2: would be so unwieldy, it would be hard to see
16:53
S2: it working at all.
16:54
S1: But let's just talk for a moment, I guess just
16:56
S1: about how shocking or how history making really it would
16:59
S1: be if rival powers do support an AfD in minority government.
17:04
S1: Because wouldn't that break one of Germany's greatest and longest standing,
17:08
S1: I guess, political taboos, which has been in place since
17:11
S1: the destruction of the Nazi Party, of course, led by
17:14
S1: Adolf Hitler, which is, of course, you know, this agreement
17:17
S1: not to let a far right party rule in government.
17:21
S1: So wouldn't this just send a shudder across the world
17:24
S1: if this actually does come to pass? And the AfD
17:27
S1: does does rule in this eastern state?
17:30
S2: I think it would be It would be a shock
17:34
S2: and everybody would have to digest it and think about
17:36
S2: what it means for the future. And that's why you
17:38
S2: get the mainstream party here, the CDU absolutely ruling out
17:43
S2: any deal with the AfD. And also there are other
17:46
S2: parties that have agreed to what's called a firewall, which
17:49
S2: is you do not deal with the AfD. And that's
17:52
S2: played out in some other states.
17:54
S1: And David, just to wrap up, what, if anything, are
17:57
S1: you hearing from other countries in Europe about this result
18:00
S1: in this small eastern state, in Germany, because it is
18:04
S1: a history making result, right? In terms of the support
18:07
S1: for this far right party in a country like Germany,
18:10
S1: which of course has the history that it has. I mean,
18:13
S1: are they on tenterhooks as to whether this a party
18:16
S1: will actually gain power in this state and lead to
18:20
S1: a future in which, I don't know, Germany could be
18:22
S1: ruled by a far right party. Again.
18:26
S2: In some ways it's it's a it's a huge experiment,
18:29
S2: isn't it? We will see if Ulrich Siegmund forms government.
18:35
S2: What that means for the people of Saxony-Anhalt. They are
18:38
S2: a small state. There are about 1.7 million voters here.
18:41
S2: There are 60 million voters across Germany. So this is
18:44
S2: a small former industrial area of East Germany which has
18:48
S2: been left behind and which has voting the way it
18:52
S2: is because it feels so left behind. What he can
18:54
S2: do to turn that around is a huge mystery. But
18:58
S2: what is, I think, a very interesting dynamic is that
19:01
S2: other parties of the right in Europe will look at
19:04
S2: this and it will give them confidence. And we already
19:07
S2: saw this on the weekend at the reform UK conference,
19:11
S2: where Nigel Farage, the leader of reform UK, stood on
19:15
S2: stage with the leader of the National Rally from France,
19:18
S2: or the president of this party, not the presidential candidate.
19:22
S2: His name is Jordan Bardella, and he flew to the
19:26
S2: reform UK conference to stand on stage with Nigel Farage
19:31
S2: to kind of talk together about stopping migration. So you
19:35
S2: are seeing this cooperation between parties on this end of
19:39
S2: the political spectrum, and there will be others in Europe
19:42
S2: who will want to start visiting Saxony-Anhalt to see what's
19:46
S2: been playing out there.
19:51
S1: Thank you so much, David, for your time.
19:53
S2: Oh, it's really good to talk. It is fascinating times.
19:55
S2: So thanks.
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