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Will the Supreme Court Upend 2024? · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: On today's show, the Supreme Court hears arguments as to
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: whether Donald Trump can run for president after participating in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: an insurrection... and prepare to decide whether his criminal trial
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: for trying to overturn the last election will take place
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: before the next election. And the DOJ decides not to
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: bring charges against Joe Biden for mishandling classified info, even
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: though the special counsel in that investigation decided to take
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: a few shots at him. But first, Republican politicians have
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: spent the week finding new ways to humiliate themselves just
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: to keep the criminal defendant who lost them the last
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: few elections happy. Nikki Haley, herself no stranger to humiliation
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: after a bruising 30-point loss in Nevada to the formidable none-of-these-candidates,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: did do a great job summing up the cost of
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: her party becoming a cult.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: Look at what happened yesterday. Trump loses the case on
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: having immunity for whatever comes next. Republicans lose a fight
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: on the border. They lose a fight on Israel aid.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: The head of the Republican Party loses her job. Everything
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: that Donald Trump touches.
• 1:25
  Speaker 4: It's chaos.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: No notes from me. What about you?
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, really wish she had found her voice a
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: little bit earlier in this campaign. She might have beaten
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: none of the above.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Like the chaos message, clearly most Republican voters don't give
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: a shit about it. They either like Trump's chaos or
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: they don't see it as chaos. But, you know, independents
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: and swing voters have certainly rejected Trump and Republican chaos
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: in 2018, 2020, and 2022. And 2023. Don't leave that
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: one out.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: And 2023. Yeah.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So we'll see how that goes. All right. Let's start
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: with Congress, as Haley mentioned, where Republicans negotiated the toughest,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: most conservative immigration deal in decades. Then Trump ordered them
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: to kill their own deal because he thinks chaos at
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: the border will help him beat Joe Biden. So they
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: killed it. They're moving ahead with a baseless and fairly
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: useless effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas so
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: that Trump can have a talking point on the campaign trail.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: But they failed at that because Republicans picked a creepy
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: backbencher for speaker who can't count votes. And now that
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: the Senate potentially does have the votes to pass the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan that a bunch of
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Republicans have said that they want, they're going to even
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: greater lengths to embarrass themselves and by saying things like this.
• 2:43
  Speaker 5: Finally, I just want to ask whether or not this
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: new bill that's just about foreign policy, whether you're going
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: to vote in favor of it. Foreign money for Israel,
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: for what's happening in the Ukraine. What do you think
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: of that standalone foreign policy bill?
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: David, I voted no already a few minutes ago, and
• 3:03
  Speaker 6: here's the reason why. Unfortunately, what this administration and Chuck Schumer,
• 3:08
  Speaker 6: they are doing is using the crisis in Israel to
• 3:12
  Speaker 6: support other priorities of the party. We should first secure
• 3:16
  Speaker 6: our southern border.
• 3:16
  Speaker 7: Oh, my God.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: No to the border deal because Biden doesn't need legislation
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: to secure the border. And no to foreign aid because
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: it doesn't come with border legislation. That was Tim Scott,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: by the way. Tim Scott. gave the best speech at
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the 2020 convention, once seen as the party's fresh-faced future,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: and now he sounds like a zombie Trump bot stuck
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: on repeat.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: It is just wild that what the Senate is trying
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: to do right now is the exact thing that Joe
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: Biden asked them to do four and a half months ago.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: All they're voting on is his request for original requests
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: for supplemental aid for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and a couple
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: other things.
• 3:59
  Speaker 7: That's it.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: And so we went through this whole process about negotiating
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: a border deal, combining these things because we're probably said
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: they need. They killed it in like 17 minutes and
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: are back to just trying to pass a thing Joe
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Biden asked for. What a gigantic waste of time and
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: tremendous incompetence from this goat rodeo of a political party
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: that controls way too much of government.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: And they still might not pass the national security funding bill.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: They might not pass the aid.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: And even if they do, Where's it going?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Well, that's what, yeah. What do you think happens now?
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So first of all, the Senate Republicans are able to
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: propose amendments to the foreign aid bill and they want
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: to amend it with, wait for it, border security proposals.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So they want to, it's weird. They want to, if
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: only they could pass funding for Ukraine and Israel and Taiwan,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: but also pair it with like tougher border security? Wouldn't
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: it be, they should do like a deal with Democrats
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: where they figure out, oh yeah.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe like Lankford and Murphy could get in a
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: room together and try to figure this out. Just spitballing here. Yeah,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: those could be some ideas.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they could do that. So they're going to offer amendments,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. It might pass the Senate because, you know,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: a cloture vote passed. And so there's enough, there's now
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: enough Senate votes to pass this thing. And Mike Johnson
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: hasn't yet said that it's dead on arrival in the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: House like he did with the combo foreign aid border bill.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: But he also has people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: has said that she'll file a motion to vacate if
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: he lets aid for Ukraine come up for a vote.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: So what do you think happens here?
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: I think it's pretty hard to imagine that Mike Johnson
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: will be able to put a Senate-passed bill that includes
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: funding for Ukraine on the floor of the House. I
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: imagine Marjorie Taylor Greene is right, since I don't say often,
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: and that would be the end of his speakership. The
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: whole reason they came up with this whole border security
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: thing was to avoid taking that singular vote because voting
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: on Ukraine aid, one, is a huge problem for him
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: with the Freedom Caucus, but two, it drives a gigantic
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: wedge through the middle of the Republican Party between your
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: more traditional neoconservative anti-Russia types and the America firsters and
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: then the people who like to cuddle up to Putin.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: And so he doesn't want to have that vote because
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: it would be very bad for him. So that's what
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: he's been trying to avoid. So it's hard to imagine
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: that if they don't do the place where he drew
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: the red line on border security, that he would just
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: take this up and pass it. I mean, the guy
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: seems not particularly good at his job, so maybe he
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: will stumble ass backwards into doing it. But if you
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: took what he said seriously, which I really recognize you
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: should not based on the last few months of his speakership,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: it seems hard to imagine he would actually bring it
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: up given that. But who the hell knows anymore?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Also, as of this recording on Thursday afternoon, Donald Trump
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: hasn't weighed in yet. But if Donald Trump tells them
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: to I'll vote against foreign aid. They're going to vote
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: against foreign aid because they have no policy preferences of
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: their own that they won't subsume for Donald Trump. I mean, like,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I'm sure some of them still have, I'm sure some
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Republican politicians still have policy preferences. Some of them really
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: like tax cuts for the rich. They like to deport dreamers.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: They like to outlaw abortion. I can't think of a
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: single policy preference they wouldn't sacrifice for Donald Trump. They
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: have now put electing this man again as president ahead
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: of policy beliefs, moral beliefs, their constituents, their careers, their reputations,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: their own names, in the case of Ronna McDaniel. Actually,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: we say cults jokingly. I don't see how the Republican
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Party is different than an actual cult.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's a strong statement there, but it's hard
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: to poke holes in, I'll be honest with you.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, how many Republicans, if Donald Trump told a
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: bunch of Republicans to put on a collar, get on
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: all fours, and he was going to walk them around
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Mar-a-Lago with a leash in front of a bunch of
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: television cameras, how many would say no? Like a handful, maybe?
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's basically what Ron DeSantis basically did
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: before he ran against the president. So yeah, I think
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: that's very, I mean, I don't think he listens to
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: this podcast, but if he did, I imagine he will
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: try to do that because I imagine he would enjoy
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: the prospect of making some of them do that.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're all pretty close to doing that now.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, figuratively, that's exactly what they were doing. That
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: is exactly what they were doing. Literally, who knows? I don't,
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: I really want to see it, but figuratively, that is
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: what is happening in Congress.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Speaking of Republicans who've been completely neutered, Mitch McConnell. Did
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: you ever think you'd live to see the day where
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Senate Republicans turn on Mitch McConnell for being too much
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: of a squishy bipartisan dealmaker, which is apparently what all his,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: or what a lot of his Senate Republican colleagues are
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: doing now? They're calling for him to step down. They
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: want new leadership.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: I have spent probably more time than is healthy imagining
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell's political demise. In the many scenarios in which
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: I imagine that, I did not think it'd be one
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: where Ted Cruz would get the upper hand on Mitch McConnell.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: So that was a surprise to me. Look, I think
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: this is actually a pretty significant moment because the dominant
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: figure of Republican politics the last 20 years is Mitch McConnell.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: It's not Donald Trump. It's not George W.
• 9:13
  Speaker 7: Bush.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: It's Mitch McConnell because all the things that Donald Trump
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: does not exist without Mitch McConnell, right? Mitch McConnell helping
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: change campaign finance laws going way back. Mitch McConnell stealing
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: the Supreme Court seat to give voters permission to vote
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: for Trump, even voters who did not like him in
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: the 2016 election. I don't think Donald Trump wins that
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: election without Mitch McConnell. He's been this dominant figure in
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: part because he ruled with power and strength. And the
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: way the last 48 hours or so played out is
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: a side that he He has lost his fastball. His
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: reign is essentially over. I would be surprised if he
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: is the Senate leader in the next Congress.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Oh, and I think that's true no matter who wins,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: no matter who wins the White House or the Senate.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I think he's done.
• 9:56
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: And that's not even just age and capacity. It is
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: his way of governing. There's actually some metaphors or lessons
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: for Trump here is that He ruled with an iron
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: fist for all this time. And once you've been exposed
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: as weak, once the people get to look behind the curtain,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: it is over. And this week, he was the one
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: who demanded that bipartisan deal. He shepherded it. He supported it.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: He brought it forward.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: The staff was in the room the whole time negotiating.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: And it blew up in his face. He misread the politics.
• 10:26
  Speaker 7: And he voted against it.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: And then he misread it.
• 10:28
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: He misread the politics. He misread his own power. And
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: so this is the end of Mitch McConnell. The Mitch
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: McConnell-Aaron Republican politics is over. And the worst part about
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: it is it's probably going to be replaced with something
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: even worse than Mitch McConnell, right? Probably less effective in
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: all the bad ways than Mitch McConnell, but even worse.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Well, and there had been some debate because Mitch McConnell
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: was like, well, you know, obviously he got rid of
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the filibuster for Supreme Court justices, but has said that
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: he wants to uphold the filibuster for legislative issues. And
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: there's some debate, would he really do that or not
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: if they got back in power? Wouldn't he get rid
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: of the filibuster to pass an abortion ban or other priorities?
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: That debate is moot now because there will be no
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and the next Republican leader in the Senate
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: will absolutely get rid of the filibuster.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: Do you think President Donald Trump is going to care?
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: about the history and decorum of the Senate filibuster, if
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: it's standing in the way of him passing an abortion
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: ban or some other piece of horrendous legislation he wants?
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Of course not.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: No, which is all the more reason why Donald Trump
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: wins the presidency and Republicans win the Senate. Chances of
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: a national abortion ban, extremely high, extremely high. And I
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: think they've gotten higher since Dobbs happened.
• 11:42
  Speaker 7: Oh, 100%.
• 11:42
  Speaker 6: 100%.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: I agree with that.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: We talked about how Trump and Republicans intentionally stoking chaos
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: at the border is a huge political opening for Democrats.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Biden started hitting them on that front from the White
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: House this week. But I don't know that anything could
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: be more politically effective than some of the soundbites we've
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: heard from Republicans themselves. Here's ultra conservative senator turned rhino
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: cuck trader James Lankford talking on the Senate floor this week.
• 12:08
  Speaker 8: In fact, I had a popular commentator four weeks ago
• 12:13
  Speaker 8: that I talked to. that told me flat out, before
• 12:17
  Speaker 8: they knew any of the contents of the bill, any
• 12:20
  Speaker 8: of the content, nothing was out at that point, that
• 12:23
  Speaker 8: told me flat out, if you try to move a
• 12:25
  Speaker 8: bill that solves the border crisis during this presidential year,
• 12:30
  Speaker 8: I will do whatever I can to destroy you. Because
• 12:34
  Speaker 8: I do not want you to solve this during the
• 12:37
  Speaker 8: presidential election.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Fun fact, right-wing radio host Jesse Kelley is the person
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: that James Lankford was talking about. You know Jesse Kelly?
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: Barely.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I see him on Twitter once in a while. He
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: tweeted this clip and he took credit saying, he may
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: be a eunuch, but I'll say this about Lankford, he's
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: got great taste in radio. Called him a eunuch.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: See, he's a radio host, Jesse Kelly.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's a radio host. I don't know where, but.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he learns something new every day.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: How hard should Biden and Democrats lean in to this
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: argument that basically Lankford was making. Do you think it's
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: easy enough for voters to understand as oftentimes whatever's happening
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: in Congress is quite difficult for voters to understand? It
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: doesn't really break through, but for something like this, can
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: they get it to break through?
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: They sure as hell got to try, right? I think
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: it was great. The president spoke out about it the
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: other day. He should be speaking about it every day.
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: He should talk about it in the state of the union.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Everyone should do it because it's not just, there are
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: two reasons for this. One is Border security is Biden's
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: worst issue. In that NBC poll that we've all hate
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: from last weekend, he's down 35 points on who you
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: trust more on border control and immigration. 35 points. And
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: here we have a chance to go on offense on it. Now,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: I think you and I talked about this before on
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: this podcast. The argument isn't that Trump's weak on the border.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: It is that Trump put himself over border security, right?
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: And that, to me, is a message that is believable,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: that Donald Trump and Republicans... put their own politics ahead
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: of what was best for the country. Because that leans,
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: all your messages should be a sort of almost a
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: nesting doll of your positive message and your negative message
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: against your opponent. And that message against Republicans that they're
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: unwilling to work with Democrats, they want to put their
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: own political well-being ahead of the country, fits exactly into
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: what is the most appealing part of Biden's brand to
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: most voters, that he is someone who is willing to
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: work with anyone and everyone to get things done, that
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: he is in it to help other people. And that's
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: just the perfect contrast. And so it's not that this
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: particular thing is going to break through and there are
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: going to be people running around talking about the demise
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: of the Lankford-Murphy compromise. It's going to be that this
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: is a data point to tell the larger story, which
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: highlights what people don't like about Republicans, what they like
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: about Joe Biden. So we got to run with this.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: It is a rare opportunity, and it's not that often
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: you get to go on offense on your opponent's best issue,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: which is border security.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: And I think that they need to expand it beyond
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: border security. I mean, this is a message frame for
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: all of the other issues, right? And it's an argument
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: to make to voters who are unhappy with not only
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: the border, but the cost of living, state of our politics, whatever.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: And Biden and the Democrats can say, we have solutions.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: We've been willing to reach across the aisle to get
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: stuff done. We have gotten some stuff done by working
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: with some Republicans over the last several years. But most
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Republican politicians in this party are only in this for
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And Donald Trump is only in this for himself.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: And I think you just run that play on every
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: single issue. And you can point to a whole bunch
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: of different examples. There's also like a, we haven't even
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: talked about the tax bill that's moving through Congress. That's bipartisan.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: That would extend the child tax credit. Like, do we
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: bet that that's going to get passed? I don't necessarily,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of hope for that, even
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: though it's a huge difference.
• 15:53
  Speaker 7: Right.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Exactly. And like, Do they want to give? Oh, and
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Chuck Grassley, Republican Senator Chuck Grassley, already said he's against
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: it because it would give Joe Biden to win. Well,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: it would also like alleviate poverty for millions of children.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: But like, you know, they don't give a shit. I
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: just think this is this is a really important thing,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: really important message to get across. I think he's Biden
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: especially has to do this in the State of the Union.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: The Grassley quote and some of the other ones that
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: we've mentioned are just a real example. Have you ever
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: seen a group of people who are more apt to
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: confuse the script and the stage directions? That's the reason
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: you're killing the bill. It's not what you're supposed to
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: say about why you're killing the bill, you fucking knuckleheads.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: So thank you for that.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: So Trump has convinced Republican politicians to basically paralyze Congress,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: potentially let Vladimir Putin roll through Europe. He also got
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Republican Party leaders to essentially rig the primary process for him.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: which is why Nevada gave him his own caucus tonight,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Thursday night, that will award him all the state's delegates.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: But you know what? All this was still not enough.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Even though RNC chair Ronna McDaniel rigged the primary and
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: even changed her name for Trump, she reportedly stepped down
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: after the South Carolina primary so that the boss can
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: replace her with some stop-the-steal goon from North Carolina. It
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: sure seems like Donald Trump has a stronger grip on
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party than he ever has, despite losing them
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the last three elections and facing 91 felony counts. What's
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: up with that? Are they just giving their voters what
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: they want?
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: What's... Donald Trump has never been more popular with Republican
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: voters than he is right now. That's why. This is,
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: we can blame, yes, a bunch of these politicians, weak, amoral,
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: immoral human beings, unwilling to take the slightest bit of
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: a stand on behalf of for patriotism and history and
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: all that?
• 17:44
  Speaker 7: Of course.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: But the reason this is happening is Republican voters, particularly
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: the ones who vote in primaries, love Donald Trump. They
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: love him more than any of these other yahoos. And
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: so you guys are having this conversation about why people
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: are endorsing Trump when he's just going to toss you
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: aside like Ron or Romney McDaniel. And it's because you're
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: going to lose your primary. The people who don't endorse Trump,
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: they get sent, they're done, right? The handful of fucking
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: morons who endorse Ron DeSantis are in a world of
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: hurt right now Because Donald Trump's going to make him
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: pay for it.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: And Mitt Romney.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Out of the party.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: James Lankford's going to get a primary in 2028. Mike
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Gallagher from Wisconsin, who was one of the few Republicans
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: who voted against the Mayorkas impeachment. Now the party's pissed
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: at him. They're like, you know, sick in the base
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: after him. He's going to probably have a primary. Like,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: it's just every single person.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, Jeff Flake. Remember these people? They
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: all stood up. They're all out of the party.
• 18:36
  Speaker 7: Mitch McConnell now.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell. Exactly. They're all toast. The lesson here, I guess,
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: is either you are all in and up Donald Trump's ass,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: or you're all out and you light yourself on fire
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: like Liz Cheney did and Mitt Romney's doing, where you
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: at least can go down fighting for something you care about.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: The people who sit in the middle, like Mitch McConnell,
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: they're the ones who end up getting completely screwed in this.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say that it is a cycle here,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the cult dynamic, because it's not just that these Republican
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: politicians have no choice because the base loves Donald Trump
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: so much. The base loves Donald Trump so much because
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: all these Republican politicians are constantly saying how much they
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: love Donald Trump. And so is the right wing media.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: And so because these Republican politicians are so scared of
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: saying what they really think about Donald Trump, a lot
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: of them, then the base is like, oh, all the
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: people I'm listening to, all the information I get, all
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: the media I see, all the leaders I see on TV,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: all the Republicans I vote for, they all love Donald Trump.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: So of course Donald Trump's awesome.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: Can I say one thing about the Ronna firing?
• 19:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: She was pretty bad at her job. I mean, let's
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: just be honest here, right?
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, and how hard was the job at this point?
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Well, she's in charge of the Republican Party and the
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: Republicans lost the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023 elections.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: So almost every single year she was in charge of
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: the RNC, they lost seats.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: So Yeah, well, lipstick on a pig here. She's got
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump as the party leader. I'm just saying. That's
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: the irony. The guy that fired her is the reason
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party has been doing so poorly.
• 20:14
  Speaker 7: That may be.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that she is the main reason they
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: kept losing, but her record is not one you can
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: really take to the bank either. I mean, she's a
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: terrible human being. I think that seems pretty clear. A
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: person completely incapable of shame or self-awareness, but also pretty
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: piss poor record as RNC chair, so.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Think she'll go back to Ronna Romney, McDaniel? Think she'll
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: put the Romney back in now that when she's gone?
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: I hope she, if she shows up at a Romney
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: family reunion, Mitt just slams the door in her face.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: I guess he said nice things about her already. He
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: said nothing but love for my cousin.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Oh, Mitt, come on.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: It's too nice, Mitt.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Blood thicker than water, I guess.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about one of the last institutional bulwarks
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: against a second Trump term, the judicial system. On Thursday,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case that
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: will decide whether Trump could be kicked off the ballot
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: in Colorado. It certainly sounded like they will rule in
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: his favor. The conservative and liberal justices were skeptical of
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Colorado's case, with most of them making some version of
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the argument that a single state shouldn't be able to
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: decide who the rest of the country can vote for. Notably,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: they didn't say much about Colorado's finding that Trump did
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: in fact participate in an insurrection. They seem to want
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to stay away from that. So to be continued there.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: So our usual disclaimer here. We will save the legal
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: analysis for our friends at Strict Scrutiny. You should absolutely
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: listen to the great conversation on Wednesday's pod about this
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: case between Kate Shaw and Lovett, who he actually has
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: his LSAT score tattooed across his back. Did you know that?
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: I'm not surprised to know that, no.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: And also you should check out Strict Scrutiny dropped two
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: bonus pods this week, one on the 14th Amendment case
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: and one on the Trump immunity case. So check those out.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: But Dan, for us political hacks, do you think there
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: will be political implications from what seems like it'll be
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: a win for Trump here?
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. While I don't feel strongly about
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: this as John Lovett, I've always had some political anxiety
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: about how this was going to play out, in part
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: because I always assumed the Supreme Court would just put
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump back on the ballot. And so we're having
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: this conversation today. It gives Donald Trump the opportunity to
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: argue the system is being weaponized against him. The Democrats
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: are the ones who are anti-democratic. Democrats are the ones
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: who are interfering in the election, which is all bad
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: faith bullshit. But it feels like this is going to
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: be dispensed with pretty quickly. And I guess maybe Trump
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: will try to use this as a way to say
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: that he's not an insurrectionist.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll definitely do that.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: He can do that, but that is going to be
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: so overtaken by what happens in the January 6th trial
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: that I know we'll get to. So yes, he could
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: say that for a few days. I'll set some truths
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: about it. The glorious Supreme Court says, rules for Donald Trump.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: I did not engage in insurrection. He can say all
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: those things. But then what will really matter is what
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: a jury, if this trial happens on time, that a
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: jury of 12 citizens what they say about whether he
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: committed insurrection or not. And so this is a little ephemeral.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: I'll also say that even if for some reason, unlikely reason,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court decided that Donald Trump couldn't be on
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: the ballot in Colorado, like, can you imagine the political
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: fallout from that? That he's not on the ballot in Colorado.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Other states have decided that he is on the ballot.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: It doesn't necessarily even line up with the political leanings
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: of the state, right? Like Illinois said he should be
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: on the ballot. Maine said no. And can you imagine
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: some Republican state saying, no, he's going to be on
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: the ballot, and the Democrat state– I mean, it would
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: have been a fucking crazy, crazy disaster, I think.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's ultimately what always gave me– I'm not here–
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: I'm not one to argue with, I don't know, a
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Larry Treiber or a Kate Shaw about the constitutional merits
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: of this, but– what always gave me political anxiety was
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: it was the worst of all worlds, was he was
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: going to be off the ballot in one or two
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: states that were non-competitive. And so we would not be
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: stopping Donald Trump in insurrectionists from coming to the White House.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: We would just be giving Donald Trump, an insurrectionist, the
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: opportunity to weaponize the decisions by a few states that
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: may help him return to the White House as an insurrectionist.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: So the court will also likely decide next week whether
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: to weigh in on the D.C. Circuit Court's decision that
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Trump is not immune from prosecution. If they do, the
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: speed with which they hear the case and issue a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: ruling could mean a summer and potentially fall campaign where
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Trump is tried and potentially convicted for an attempted coup.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Or the trial could be delayed until after the election
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: and if Trump wins, never happen at all. High stakes.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: High stakes, Dan.
• 25:05
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: What do you think a campaign looks like Where the
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court drags its feet and the trial gets pushed?
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: And what does one look like where Trump is sitting
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: in court being tried for election subversion in the middle
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: of both party conventions in the summer?
• 25:24
  Speaker 7: Weird.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: Seems really the whole thing seems quite weird. Regardless of
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: the timing, what I think this is going to come
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: down to is a huge battle to shape the outcome.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Because we know from the polling, this NBC poll where
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: Biden's down five, but he wins by two. If you
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: ask people if they would vote for Trump if he's convicted,
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: the exit polls would show that four in 10 New
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Hampshire voters and one in three Iowa voters, Republican primary voters,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: would not vote for Trump if he were convicted or
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: did not see anybody fit for president. All the polling
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: shows that a conviction is very, very bad for Trump
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: and would likely cost him the election. as of today.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: But he has every day between now and a verdict
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: to try to undermine that outcome by raising questions about
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: the politicization of it, just all of his stuff about
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: two-tier systems of justice and Joe Biden's weaponizing the government
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: against me and all of this. And so you're in
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: this battle and there's going to be this tremendous asymmetry
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: because Donald Trump– there are two people with the biggest
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: bully pulpits or the biggest bullhorns in America, American politics,
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: are Biden and Trump. And Trump will have every single
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: day to claim that the system is being rigged against him,
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: it's a bunch of bullshit, that it's a liberal judge,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: blue city, liberal city, all of that to try to
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: undermine the outcome.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Deranged prosecutor.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: Deranged prosecutor.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden has me on trial. He's prosecuting me as
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: I'm running. Yeah, it's going to look at me.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: He's going to do all of that because he's just
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: got to move a small handful of people to think
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: to think that it's been rigged against him, right? To
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: not buy the verdict, not to buy a conviction as
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: a disqualifying event. And Biden, who to date, for following
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: the normal protocols of normal politics, the policies of the
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Department of Justice, has not commented at all on these
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: federal investigations into Trump, is going to say nothing about it?
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you- It's hard to imagine. And
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: what does the Democratic Convention look like if- Every day
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: of the convention, we have speakers at night and Biden's
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: out there speaking and the first lady and they get
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Obama to speak, whatever. And like split screen, Donald Trump's
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: in court.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: Like what happened to the debate? If a debate were
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: to happen, it's just, it is, this election is unprecedented
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: in so many ways. I mean, you have an insurrectionist running,
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: you have the former president running to get his job back.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: We don't have a real even base to understand what's
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: going to happen because the 2020 election was so unusual
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: because of it took place in a pandemic. So it's
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: incredibly impressive. But just like imagining how these two sides
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: are going to interact when one side has decided to,
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: for all totally understandable reasons, to not talk about what
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: is the biggest issue, will be the biggest issue, the
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: biggest news story happening every single day. I imagine at
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: the convention, everyone who does not work for the Biden
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: administration can talk about it in some way, shape, or form.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: But the president, and I imagine the first lady and
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: the vice president would not.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, fucking Nikki Haley's talking about it.
• 28:30
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: So it's like, of course Democrats should talk about it. First,
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: it was just PSA guest Chris Christie. But now it's
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: like Nikki Haley is out there talking about Trump and
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: his trials and his immunity. Of course we have to
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: talk about it.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: And what I think Democrats have to recognize in this,
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: because if Joe Biden's not going to talk about it,
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: other Democrats are going to have to find a way
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: to be pushed back against what Trump is saying, is
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: Trump starts with an advantage here. In the polling last
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: year when these indictments came down, the majority of people,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: including a majority of independents, thought that one of the
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: main reasons why these indictments were happening was to stop
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: Trump from winning the election. They believe that politics is
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: at play here because people are incredibly cynical about about
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: what is happening right now. They're incredibly distrustful of government.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: And the voters who are going to decide this election
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: are often the ones who are most cynical and most
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: distrustful of politics. And so it's not simply just us
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: all believing that this is going to be totally fine,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: and then a conviction in itself will stand. Trump has
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: the ability to undermine it with a people that he
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: could still win when that happens. And this is the
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: point where I should absolutely plug the latest episode of
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Polar Coaster, where I talked to Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster,
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: on this very question of how a conviction would impact
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: the 2024 election. She's got a lot of really good
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: insight from polls and focus groups she's done about how
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: voters are– consuming the trials and the indictments and how
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: they're thinking about it. So check it out.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I can't wait to listen to that one. I also
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: think that for as much as you want to talk
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: to voters now and do focus groups now, it's just
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: really hard to predict what the media and information environment
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: is going to be like in the middle of a
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: trial and what it's going to feel like if a
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: jury convicts Trump and there's headlines all across the country
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: and the world and across and like in everyone's screen
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: everywhere that says Donald Trump has been convicted.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: Or not convicted.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Or not convicted, right?
• 30:36
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Or not convicted. And I do think how the trial,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: even before the conviction or not conviction, how the trial
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: plays out and how people understand how the trial is
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: playing out, how it's covered, how it's talked about, not
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: just from Donald Trump, but from The mainstream media by Democrats,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: everyone else is going to be hugely important in how
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: people process the information and ultimately make a decision about
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Trump's guilt and whether they're going to vote for him
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: or not.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, just like the testimony, you know, there's this
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: big story in the New York Times magazine about Mark
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Meadows and all the cooperation he's done. What you say
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: if someone.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Hypo- Oh yeah, we haven't talked about that.
• 31:12
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: Meadows, apparently Meadows got immunity.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: And sat down for five hours to talk about Donald Trump,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: the guy who was his chief of staff with him
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: during the, from the end of the November election through
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: January 6th and after. He was right there and he
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: just testified for five hours and got immunity.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: It was the point of contact between the proud boy,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: the war room that Roger Stone was in with the
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: proud boys and the White House. But there are these
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: going to be these moments though. Is there going to
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: be a mistake? someone makes that Trump or other people
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: can use to suggest that the system is being rigged
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: against them. I mean, it's been a long time, very,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: very long time since you've had a trial like this
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: that has, I mean, really OJ, I guess, before- I
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: was going to.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Say, this will be bigger than OJ. This will be
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: bigger than the OJ trial.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: But will there be cameras? No, right?
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: I don't believe so now.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah. That's a huge difference. But you have Donald Trump
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: going out every day if he's there- Every day. And
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: speaking to the press. And how are What is the
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: operation to push back against that? What is Biden going
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: to say at a rally when Trump says something, but
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: he can't comment? There are a lot of things to
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: figure out here, but this is everything that we're talking about,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: about the economy and the jobs numbers and GDP and
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: what the polling says and the border security, but all
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: these things are very important and they're going to be
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: in an election. Everything's important, but then you have hanging
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: over your head the biggest, most unpredictable thing that's ever
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: happened in a presidential election coming at some point. hopefully, right?
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Depending on what the Supreme Court does.
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: And I do, you know, listening to the justices today
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: and the fact that they didn't touch or didn't really
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: talk about the federal court in Colorado's decision that he
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: participated in an insurrection, it does make me think they're like,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: I can't, I find it really hard to imagine. And
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: of course, anything is possible, but I find it really
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: hard to imagine that the Supreme Court is going to say,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: you know what, we're going to kick this case. We're
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: going to make it impossible to have this case heard
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: before the election. I just find it really tough to
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: believe that. But who knows? They're the Supreme Court, and
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: there's a bunch of Trump appointees on it, and who knows?
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: But it seems, I don't know.
• 33:22
  Speaker 7: I don't know.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: From hearing them today, I don't know.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know either. Obviously, all the smart people seem
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: to have that position. I will say there are moments
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: when the fact that I'm a little older than you,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: or maybe... significantly older than you, comes into play. And
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: one of them is I was sitting– Bush v. Gore, right?
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: I was in Florida in a room with all the
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: smartest lawyers that worked for Gore. And they were all
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: saying that– and all the legal experts were saying that
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: it seemed incredibly unlikely the Supreme Court would intervene and
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: stop the count in Florida. Then the Supreme Court intervened
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: and stopped the count in Florida. So anything– and that
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: was a Supreme Court that was much less political than
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: this one. I'm just saying anything is possible here. If
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: I had to bet one way or the other, I
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: would bet the way you bet, but there's a middle
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: ground where they just delay this thing so late that
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: maybe the trial can't happen. Where they don't award, this
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: is something they talked about in the strict scrutiny pod
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: that was very helpful, is maybe they don't agree with
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump's argument, but they hold hearings, they have a hearing,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: and they make a decision, and it pushes the case
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: off long enough that it becomes impossible to finish it
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: by October. And that's probably not the outcome that John
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Roberts wants, but it may be the outcome that enough
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: NAGA justices want.
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Although, as Kate said to Lovett on Wednesday's pod, everyone
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: will know pretty early on in this process whether the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court is acting in a way that will push
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: the trial past November or not. And everyone should respond
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: accordingly based on you know, when they issued the stay,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: if they issued the stay, when they take the case,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: when they deny cert, not deny, right. All of that
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: stuff is going to tell us what the timeline is
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: probably going to look like. So we will know soon
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: enough what the plan is here.
• 35:10
  Speaker 6: All right.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Speaking of just stomach turning topics, we save the most
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: fun for last. It appears Trump's 2024 opponent won't be
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: getting indicted anytime soon. The Justice Department just released the
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: final report from special counsel Robert Herr who has decided
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: not to charge Joe Biden with any crimes related to
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: his own mishandling of classified information. Hurd did find evidence
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: that Biden, quote, willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: his vice presidency when he was a private citizen, but
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: that evidence, quote, does not establish Mr. Biden's guilt beyond
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: a reasonable doubt. The report went on to say that
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: a jury would need to find that Biden willfully retained
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: the classified info. And then they speculated that the jury
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: would be unlikely to convict because Biden and his lawyers
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: would likely present him as a, quote, well-meaning elderly man
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: with a poor memory. And it goes on to cite
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: numerous examples of Biden having memory issues during his interview
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: with the special counsel. It was basically just an in-kind
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: donation to the Trump campaign from Robert Herr. a former
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: Trump appointee and a former clerk for Justice Rehnquist, appointed
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: by Trump to be U.S. attorney in Maryland. Though, as
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Biden pointed out in his response, he spoke at the
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: House Democratic Caucus on Thursday, the report also laid out
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the difference between Biden and Trump on the classified documents issue.
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: As the special counsel wrote, and I quote, several material
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: distinctions between Mr. Trump's case and Mr. Biden's are clear.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: And by the way, this is the Republican counsel. Most notably,
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: after given multiple chances, he returned classified documents and avoided prosecution.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Mr.
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: Trump allegedly did the opposite. According to the indictment, he
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: has not only refused to return documents for many months,
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: he also obstructed justice by enlisting others to destroy evidence
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: and then lie about it. That's the distinction.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: That is the distinction. So this sucks.
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is like, everyone remember what happened with
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: James Comey in 2016? It was like 50 or 60
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: years ago. This was, I mean, it wasn't a press conference,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: so I guess that part's better. But the report itself,
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: like worse than what Comey did because this guy went
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: out of his way to just take shots at Joe
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: Biden's memory.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Only in our world can a report exonerating Joe Biden
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: saying he will not be charged with a crime that
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump was charged with and lays out in a
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: clear detail as President Biden just did, the differences between
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: what Biden did and Trump did, can that be bad news, right?
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: That should be good news, right? He has not been indicted.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: He's not been charged with a crime. But the absolute
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: partisan hackery involved in doing this, the way he did
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: it is just– I mean, it's honestly breathtaking. It is
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: breathtaking the way he did this. He didn't have to
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: do any of those things that wasn't necessary for it.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: The part that Joe Biden read is why Joe Biden
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: was in charge of the crime. It's not that he
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: has bad memory. What did this guy think he was
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: going to do? Joe Biden was going to get up
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: there and the jury was going to be like, oh,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: I'm sure this guy forgot his class of information. That
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: was not going to be the defense. I mean, I
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: can only imagine how pissed the White House is. It's
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: pretty stunning, but maybe not surprising. And maybe it should
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: be an argument against appointing Republican special counsels who work
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: for Donald Trump to investigate Democratic presidents by choice, which
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: is what Merrick Garland did. But just– it's bad. It
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: is very bad and it is– it's going to– I
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: think this is one of those things that is going
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: to be– it's going to be a topic of discussion
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: for the next period here. There's going to be several
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: news cycles about this because it– Oh, yeah. There's always–
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: there is these two moments that were Biden misspoke and
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: said– and gave the wrong names of European leaders. Which
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: is something that I will say, having known Joe Biden
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: a long time, he could have done 20 years ago, right?
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: That is not a sign of his age. It's just
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: when he's up on stage, that happens sometimes. But when
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: you have those two things that are bubbling, and then
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: you have the special counsel do this, you can see
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: it on Twitter, you can see it in the text
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: messages that we've gotten from Democrats freaking out about it.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: It's going to kick off a panic cycle among Democrats.
• 39:29
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: It's going to be really annoying.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I get it. Look, so they go through,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: and the characterization of Biden's memory, right? Because a lot
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: of people in a lot of interviews... with investigators say,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I have no memory of that. I have no memory
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: of that. I do not recall, right? People are sending
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: around clips. Trump did that in his interviews a bunch
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: of times, a whole bunch of other people. The Biden
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: folks have put out, sent a letter to the special
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: counsel where they had tried to get them to take
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: out some of the more subjective descriptions of Biden's memory
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: in there because they noted that, you know, at one
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: point in the report, the special counsel talks about Biden's
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: former counsel forgetting something. and describes it as his memory
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: of these events could well have faded over the course
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: of more than six years. So like very, like when
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: other people that they interviewed for this forgot something, they
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: just said, oh, it could have, it was a long time.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: They could have forgotten. But with Biden, they were like,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: he's a senile old man. Like it was just that blatant. And,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: you know, they use examples of like, he would say
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: things like 2013, was I still vice president then? Or 2009,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: was I vice president then? At one point, if he forgot,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: he couldn't remember the year that Beau died. And, you know,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: all of this is happening. It was a five-hour interview, apparently,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: that took place the day after the October 7th attack
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: in Israel. And so, and they have this special counsel, like,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: thanking him. He's like, I know you're dealing with a
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: lot right now. Thank you for sitting down for five hours, right?
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: So there's all these, like, extenuating circumstances. None of it's
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: going to matter to the right or to, like, how
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: this gets out in media, how this hits people, right?
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: People are just going to see, like, you know, he's a,
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: the line, he's like, oh, a well-meaning elderly man with
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: a poor memory, like that's just going to be what
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: people remember. And so, yeah, it's bad. And like, what
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: do you do about it if you're the White House?
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: I think, look, they have been dealing with age concerns
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: from the very beginning. And it's not because of the
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: media or Republicans. It's because like anyone who sees Joe
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Biden speak has that concern. And I think the only
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: way to handle it is for Joe Biden to like,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: go out there more and, and reassure people and talk
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: and sit for long interviews and, and, you know, debate
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump and do all the things that you have
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: to do. Like, and if they're not confident he can
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: do that, then that's a bigger fucking problem. But if
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: they are confident he can do that, then he got,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: he's got to go do it because like you can
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: yell at the media all you want. And we can
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: certainly yell at Robert Herr because he's a fucking asshole
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: for doing that. And it was completely inappropriate, but it's happened.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: And people are watching Joe Biden every day, and they're
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: seeing clips of him on TikTok and other places on
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: social media that are way worse than when you actually
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: speak to the man or see him sit down for
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: an interview for a long time. And so I guess
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I think the only way through this problem is to
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: get out there more.
• 42:19
  Speaker 7: I don't know.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: The other thing that happened this week that sort of
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: led to this was the White House's decision to not
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: have the president do the Super Bowl interview.
• 42:28
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: Which I sort of... People were very worked up about that.
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: As someone who staffed six Super Bowl interviews, they're always
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: sort of weird. They're all very serious policy interviews while
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: people are eating wings waiting for the Super Bowl to start.
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: So it's always weird. And so I was sort of like, yeah,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: I probably would have done it, but it's not. Everyone
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: thinks it's an obvious layout. But no one wants to
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: hear you talk about Gaza and Israel while they're waiting
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: for the Super Bowl to start. That's just not how
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: people consume information. But I might call them back and
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: just say, let's do it. right now. And Biden was
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: going to have to do things like this no matter
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: what came, whatever Robert Herr, whatever the fuck his name is,
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: says in his report. This is not going to change
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: the dynamic. It's just going to highlight the dynamic. It
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: just becomes another reason why the dynamic of people being
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: concerned about the president's age incompetence has gone to the
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: top of the news cycle again. In that NBC poll.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: And I can't remember the exact numbers, but I think
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: there's like a 19-point swing between 2020 and now on
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: who you believe to be more competent and effective. Biden
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: had a nine-point advantage in 2020 in the NBC news
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: poll right before the election. I think he's down 16 now.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: And so part of that is people don't see enough
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden. And the only way to change that is
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: for people to see more Joe Biden. And this is just...
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: There are two parts of these things, right? There's how
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: do you stop the news cycle from happening, which is
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: something like doing the Super Bowl interview where you just
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: tell people. And then there's how do you just deal
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: with a larger concern that is the largest impediment to
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden's reelection is questions about age and capacity, is
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: to go out there and show everyone that you can
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: do the job by engaging with people, being in debates,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: all of that. And so he's going to do that
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: no matter what. I think the urgency probably bumped up
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: a few weeks because of this report.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: And when we were in the White House- We hated
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: the part of, you know, media coverage that was all
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: about the president's performance, right? Was Barack Obama angry enough?
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: Was he too aloof? Was he this? And then it's like,
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: you know, figure skating judges, I think is what Plouffe
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: used to call it. And they would judge you by
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: your performance. But like, that is unfortunately the reality we
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: live in. And Joe Biden's performance when he speaks, when
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: he gives an interview from now until November is is
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: going to be a huge part of whether he wins
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: the election or not. Huge. Even like we've been talking
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: about the economy as a challenge for him. And we've
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: seen now over the last several weeks, economic sentiment is
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: getting better. Consumer sentiment is getting better. It's starting to
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: show up in the polls that voters are thinking the
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: economy is improving. And it's not yet redounding to Joe
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: Biden's benefit. And part of that is because the concerns
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: about his age persist. And the only like the only
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: way to to address that is with Joe Biden himself.
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Like the campaign's message is good. The White House's message
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: is good. He's been like I totally agree that he's
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: been a excellent president. I have huge problems with his
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: Gaza policy, huge problems. But like legislatively, domestically, like he's
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: all of that stuff is firing on all cylinders. But
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: like I'm telling you, he's got to he's got to perform.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: And he's got to allay these concerns and fucking Robert
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Herr just put them front and center.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: The Super Bowl interview, I will say one other thing
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: about it is people generally think you're going to get
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: 100 million viewers and you're not because the interview actually
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: happens like two hours before the Super Bowl. And so
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: I think it's when the last one Obama did was
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: like 15 million people. Trump had like 14 million when
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: he did it. But it's still the biggest audience that
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: he would get for a while except the State of
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: the Union, which is coming up in a month, like
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: a month from today. And that now... The stakes are
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: always high in the State of the Union. They're always
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: high in the State of the Union before they're reelected.
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: Now they're even higher. And because that'll be an audience
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: of 20, 30 million people.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: And I will say, again, this is not about the
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: fact of whether he is competent and up for the
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: job and mentally all there and all that kind of shit.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Someone was tweeting an excerpt from an old Politico story
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: about Kevin McCarthy, where it said like, On a particularly
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: sensitive matter, McCarthy mocked Biden's age and mental acuity in
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: public while privately telling allies that he found the president
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: sharp and substantive in their conversations, a contradiction, a contradiction
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: that left a deep impression on the White House. It's like, yeah,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: guess what? Yeah, it's bullshit.
• 47:01
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: And like I saw Biden last December. And he, I've
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: said this before, like he remembered, he recognized my mother-in-law
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: having met her four years earlier at one Katie Porter event.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: And he like recognized her in the White House and
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: then told us stories and told my father-in-law stories about
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: like the Bork confirmation with a level of detail that
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: frankly was alarming. It's not like he forgot anything. Like
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: he knew every single thing that happened back in the seventies.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: So it's not like, it's not the fact of his,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: his mental acuity. It is the perception. And I realize
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: that's frustrating, but it's the biggest task. The biggest task
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: is to fight that perception.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: This is a very important point you made, which is
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: if the things that Robert Herr claimed in his report
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: were happening all the time, we would all hear about it, right?
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: Because isn't that Biden's meeting with Republicans all the time?
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: He's meeting with people who are with Democratic senators. Washington
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: has a tremendous river mill and just everyone would know
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: if Biden was having huge mental lapses in meetings with people.
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: It was just that you would do it because it
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: is the single biggest issue in the election and Democrats
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: cannot stop panicking privately to reporters. So you would be
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: hearing about it. And the fact that you're not from
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: Republicans or Democrats, other than the Republicans who are clearly
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: lying like McCarthy, is evidence that what Robert Herr is
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: saying is not an accurate portrayal of how Joe Biden
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: is on a daily basis. I think that's really just important.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it is. And it's, well, But the sense
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: you get from him a lot of times when he
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: speaks is not that he's not all there, but his
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: performance feeds into the impression because sometimes it's low energy.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it seems like he's mumbling and swallowing his words.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: He's obviously got spinal issues. That means he's shuffling around.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: So it just exudes old man, even though like the
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: words he's saying and his ability to like communicate in
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: private with people is extremely sharp. So that's just something
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: that they got to work on. And it's ridiculous that
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: the fucking fate of democracy depends on that, but that's
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: where we are.
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: This is like our personal nightmare is that somehow the
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: thing we've decried in politics our entire careers is that
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: it comes down to optics. The thing we hate most.
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: I know.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: The fucking optics election. Great.
• 49:15
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: And we can all scream about optics or you know,
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: do something about it. So it's, it's brutal.
• 49:19
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Enough of that. Uh, when we come back, we're gonna
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: talk about the Superbowl a little bit. Just end on
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: something light. All right. We're back. And, um, They said
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: we were going to come back and talk about the
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, so naturally, we had to bring on John Lovett.
• 49:43
  Speaker 7: Boy, am I excited to talk about the Super Bowl,
• 49:45
  Speaker 7: an event I absolutely knew was happening this weekend. I
• 49:46
  Speaker 7: certainly didn't ask in our meeting yesterday about this very episode.
• 49:49
  Speaker 7: That's on Sunday? At which point, everyone's eyes turned away.
• 49:54
  Speaker 7: And speaking of eyes, there will be 114 million pairs
• 49:56
  Speaker 7: of them tuning into the big game on Sunday, during
• 49:59
  Speaker 7: which they'll gamble on approximately $ 23 billion in Super Bowl wagers.
• 50:04
  Speaker 7: And now it's your turn, Dan and John. It's time
• 50:07
  Speaker 7: for the betting boys to put it all on the line.
• 50:09
  Speaker 7: Here's how it works. I'm going to give you bets.
• 50:12
  Speaker 7: Then I will give you the odds. You have to
• 50:13
  Speaker 7: decide whether or not you want to wager. In a
• 50:16
  Speaker 7: game we're calling, all bets are shaken off. Now, here's
• 50:19
  Speaker 7: how it's going to work. First of all, the stakes
• 50:23
  Speaker 7: aren't cold, hard cash.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: They're your dignity.
• 50:25
  Speaker 7: On Thursday, we will check in and see which of
• 50:27
  Speaker 7: you came out ahead and which of you came out behind.
• 50:29
  Speaker 7: The losers reward humiliation. The loser will have to send
• 50:32
  Speaker 7: out a painfully earnest tweet crafted by the team. begging
• 50:36
  Speaker 7: Taylor Swift to endorse Joe Biden.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Oh my goodness.
• 50:39
  Speaker 7: Boy, am I glad I'm hosting instead of playing. It's
• 50:41
  Speaker 7: both what's written on this and what I'm feeling. But first,
• 50:44
  Speaker 7: because our audience is a strong, quietly head to another
• 50:46
  Speaker 7: room and listen to a podcast until the halftime show vibe,
• 50:50
  Speaker 7: we wanted to quickly answer the question, what is sports betting?
• 50:53
  Speaker 7: And here's the gist. People bet on the game, but
• 50:55
  Speaker 7: also on other silly aspects around the game, like how
• 50:57
  Speaker 7: long the national anthem will be, and the less likely
• 50:59
  Speaker 7: the predicted outcome, the longer the odds. And so the
• 51:02
  Speaker 7: more you can win. To keep this simple... Each wager
• 51:06
  Speaker 7: will be 100 crooked bucks. Each of you can make
• 51:08
  Speaker 7: five bets. You must bet five times, and there will
• 51:14
  Speaker 7: only be seven opportunities. In other words, you can skip two. Okay.
• 51:17
  Speaker 7: But you're going to have to bet five times.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 51:19
  Speaker 7: But you can skip a max of two.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to take some notes here then. This
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: is complicated.
• 51:24
  Speaker 7: First up, what color will the Gatorade dumped on the
• 51:28
  Speaker 7: winning team be? You can choose between orange, red, or blue. Orange,
• 51:34
  Speaker 7: the odds are plus 240.
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: No yellow, huh?
• 51:37
  Speaker 7: Blue, the odds are plus 430. Red, the odds are
• 51:39
  Speaker 7: plus 490.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Could you do the odds again?
• 51:44
  Speaker 7: Orange, 240. Blue, 430. Red, 490. Red being the longest
• 51:49
  Speaker 7: shot and the most delicious.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take orange.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: Can we both take the same bets or no?
• 51:53
  Speaker 7: Yeah, you can if you want.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: You're going to take her. And what are you going
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: to wager?
• 51:56
  Speaker 7: You have to wager, you're raising 100. So you're just
• 51:58
  Speaker 7: going for the- 100 on everything. 100 on everything.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: So we're not splitting our 100 up among the five bets.
• 52:02
  Speaker 8: No.
• 52:02
  Speaker 6: Okay.
• 52:02
  Speaker 7: No, no, no. You have 500, you get to bet
• 52:04
  Speaker 7: five times. So try to simplify it. You bet five times.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: But then the winner is the person who makes the
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: most money, not who wins the most bets, right?
• 52:12
  Speaker 7: Correct. Correct. Yes, Dan. That is right. You got it.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: Perfect.
• 52:19
  Speaker 7: Okay. And I didn't have to Google how do sports
• 52:22
  Speaker 7: betting work? What is the plus 240 minus 110 mean?
• 52:25
  Speaker 7: I had to like figure it all out. I didn't
• 52:28
  Speaker 7: have to do that. All right, Dan, do you want
• 52:29
  Speaker 7: in on the Gatorade bet?
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I will take the red.
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 52:34
  Speaker 7: Dan takes the red. Okay. What did you take? You
• 52:38
  Speaker 7: took orange?
• 52:38
  Speaker 6: Yep. Okay.
• 52:40
  Speaker 7: What surprise guest will Usher bring out during his halftime show?
• 52:44
  Speaker 7: You have three options. Justin Bieber, minus 200. So just
• 52:50
  Speaker 7: so people understand, if you bet 100, you'll net 50.
• 52:53
  Speaker 7: Nicki Minaj, plus 310. Taylor Swift, plus 550. I actually
• 52:59
  Speaker 7: think those are pretty... I would think you'd get better
• 53:01
  Speaker 7: odds on that, if I.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: Was being honest. Yeah, I thought so too.
• 53:03
  Speaker 7: That'd be wild.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Wild.
• 53:05
  Speaker 7: But that's what the sportsbook says.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: They're trying to get people to bet that Taylor Swift
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: money because it's free money for the sports books.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. That's right. And so Bieber is what?
• 53:20
  Speaker 7: Just minus 200. You bet 100, you're going to net 50.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 53:26
  Speaker 7: People, I guess, would not be surprised to see Justin.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping this one.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm skipping it.
• 53:31
  Speaker 7: John's out.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: I'm skipping this one.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think any of them are.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: I think people know Bieber's coming, which is why the
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: odds are so poorly. I.
• 53:40
  Speaker 7: Insisted on this question. Who will have more completions, Purdy
• 53:43
  Speaker 7: or Mahomes?
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: Mahomes.
• 53:46
  Speaker 6: Mahomes.
• 53:47
  Speaker 7: And I don't think it means sexual completions. I think
• 53:49
  Speaker 7: it must mean some sort of sports thing, catching and
• 53:51
  Speaker 7: throwing and so forth. Obviously, I don't know who I
• 53:55
  Speaker 7: like more, Purdy or Mahomes?
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: Anyway. What do you have to give up for Mahomes?
• 54:01
  Speaker 7: It's a hundred. It's plus 110 for both. It's just
• 54:04
  Speaker 7: who's going to have more between the two of them.
• 54:06
  Speaker 7: They're basically, they're even. Plus 110 for either.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: I'll take Mahomes.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: I'm going to take Purdy.
• 54:13
  Speaker 7: Wow. There it is. There it is. Love it.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: Just as a piece of information that I think you
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: would appreciate is that Brock Purdy was the last pick
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: in the draft, which means that he is known. The
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: last pick of the draft is always known as Mr. Irrelevant.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: And so it is quite a story that Mr. Irrelevant
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: is playing in the Super Bowl as a starting quarterback.
• 54:30
  Speaker 7: What a mean name for somebody. Who gets to be
• 54:32
  Speaker 7: in the, you know, the irrelevant people are the people
• 54:35
  Speaker 7: that weren't picked at all.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: Well, usually the person who's picked doesn't last in the
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: NFL very long. Right, right, right, right, right.
• 54:42
  Speaker 7: Next up, will Taylor Swift win more Grammys or will
• 54:46
  Speaker 7: the Chiefs of Kansas City score more touchdowns? So the
• 54:50
  Speaker 7: odds for Taylor having more Grammy wins, that's minus 200.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Are we talking more total Grammy? Like she's, we already
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: know her Grammy wins.
• 54:57
  Speaker 7: Right, we already know.
• 54:58
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: How many was it?
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: This year or this year?
• 55:01
  Speaker 7: It must be this year.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: Otherwise, it's like 23, so it would be.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Right, that's what I'm saying.
• 55:05
  Speaker 7: Will Taylor have won more Grammys this year, or will
• 55:07
  Speaker 7: the Chiefs score more touchdowns in the Super Bowl? Taylor
• 55:09
  Speaker 7: having the edge, that's minus 200. Chiefs scoring more touchdowns,
• 55:13
  Speaker 7: that's plus 150.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: Did she.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Let's look. We can look up how many Grammys.
• 55:17
  Speaker 7: How many Grammys did she win? She only won two.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: And the Chiefs have more touchdowns?
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: It's Chiefs touchdowns.
• 55:25
  Speaker 7: Oh, I think So will the Chiefs have three or
• 55:27
  Speaker 7: more touchdowns is really what it's saying. If Taylor has
• 55:29
  Speaker 7: one more Grammys, minus 200. If the Chiefs score more touchdowns,
• 55:32
  Speaker 7: plus 150. If they have the same, push.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: I'll let you go first, Dan, because I've been going first.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: I'll take the Chiefs scoring more touchdowns.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: I'll take that too.
• 55:41
  Speaker 6: Wow.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Okay. Okay.
• 55:43
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 55:43
  Speaker 7: Okay. Next up, will Travis Kelsey have more catches than
• 55:47
  Speaker 7: Taylor Swift Grammy nominations? Over 6.5 catches. That's minus 200.
• 55:55
  Speaker 7: Under 6.5 catches, plus 135.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: Wait, will they have more? What is it?
• 56:02
  Speaker 7: Will Travis Kelsey have more catches?
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Oh, Kelsey's catch. Okay, got it, got it, got it,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: got it.
• 56:06
  Speaker 7: Catches.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: And it's 6.5 is the line.
• 56:09
  Speaker 7: 6.5 is the line. Over 6.5, minus 200. Under 6.5,
• 56:13
  Speaker 7: plus 135. Wow, so he must be very good. That's
• 56:17
  Speaker 7: a lot of times to catch it. I assume six.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Yes, he's good.
• 56:20
  Speaker 7: He's quite good.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: I'll do the over. Dan, what do you think?
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: I will also do the over.
• 56:27
  Speaker 8: Wow.
• 56:28
  Speaker 6: Okay. Okay.
• 56:29
  Speaker 7: Okay.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Really, right now, this contest is coming down to the
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: Gatorade color.
• 56:35
  Speaker 6: No, no, no, no, no.
• 56:36
  Speaker 7: Purdy versus Mahomes.
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: But the odds on, if it's red Gatorade, you're walking
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: away with this thing.
• 56:42
  Speaker 7: If it's red Gatorade, it doesn't matter. Dan's walking away
• 56:45
  Speaker 7: with this fucking thing.
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: Fuck, I hope it's not red Gatorade.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Both teams are red.
• 56:49
  Speaker 7: Who will be the first person shown next to Taylor
• 56:51
  Speaker 7: Swift during the Super Bowl? Jason Kelsey, plus 500. Ed Kelsey,
• 56:57
  Speaker 7: plus 900. Scott Swift, plus 700. Cara Delevingne, plus 900.
• 57:03
  Speaker 7: Gigi Hadid, plus 1,000. Good, wow, that's exciting. You see
• 57:10
  Speaker 7: Gigi Hadid in that fucking.
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: Booth, it's $ 1, 000.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: That's cool as hell. It's really tough. How do they
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: do this bet? What if we see Taylor and Jason
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: is next to her and Cara's on the other side?
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: Which is very possible.
• 57:25
  Speaker 7: I don't know how... Then the vet probably voids.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: Then the vet voids.
• 57:27
  Speaker 7: The vet void. The vet voids. You also can skip
• 57:29
  Speaker 7: to the next one. You don't have to do this bet.
• 57:32
  Speaker 7: You can skip this one. Can we hear the next
• 57:33
  Speaker 7: one and then come.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: No.
• 57:34
  Speaker 7: Oh, okay.
• 57:35
  Speaker 6: Okay.
• 57:35
  Speaker 8: No.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: That's fair.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: Okay, I'm going to skip this one.
• 57:38
  Speaker 7: Again, it's Jason Kelsey, Ed Kelsey, Scott Swift, Cara Delevingne,
• 57:42
  Speaker 7: Gigi Hadid.
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: Skipping.
• 57:43
  Speaker 7: Finally, you both have to bet. The most important question.
• 57:47
  Speaker 7: Will Travis Kelsey propose to Taylor Swift? Yes.
• 57:52
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 57:53
  Speaker 7: Plus 1,000, which is crazy, which is like, I think
• 57:56
  Speaker 7: it's more likely that Taylor is seen with Gigi Hadid,
• 57:59
  Speaker 7: roughly the same odds as Taylor and Gigi Hadid and
• 58:02
  Speaker 7: Taylor getting proposed to. It must mean that, yeah, anyway,
• 58:05
  Speaker 7: the no is unfortunately minus 3,000. What? Which means that
• 58:11
  Speaker 7: if you bet your hundred, you could net $ 3. So
• 58:15
  Speaker 7: the question is, do you want those $ 3, which I don't,
• 58:18
  Speaker 7: which could make the difference if we crunch some numbers, or.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: But otherwise, you lose $ 100. Well, sure. Because it's not
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: going to happen.
• 58:27
  Speaker 7: No, no, no.
• 58:28
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 58:29
  Speaker 7: Well, I'm saying you're betting. That's the thing. You're betting
• 58:31
  Speaker 7: on a dream. You're betting on love. You can just
• 58:35
  Speaker 7: try to keep your $ 100 and maybe win $ 3. Or
• 58:39
  Speaker 7: you can push your chips forward and think Travis gets
• 58:41
  Speaker 7: on one knee.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I'm going to, I guess, yeah, I should
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: have bet on the, should have been on the Kelsey bet.
• 58:50
  Speaker 7: I feel bad for Ed Kelsey in this. Cause it's like,
• 58:54
  Speaker 7: I think Ed Kelsey being seen next to Tyler Swift
• 58:56
  Speaker 7: is only slightly less likely than the proposal. But like,
• 59:00
  Speaker 7: why not?
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: Why not Travis Kelsey's mom? Like, why is she not
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: on that list?
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: Because I was going to say, why is she.
• 59:05
  Speaker 7: Not on that list?
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: Why not Jason Kelsey's wife?
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: What about Brittany Mahomes?
• 59:08
  Speaker 7: Yeah. I don't know who any of those fucking people are,
• 59:11
  Speaker 7: but the point is, these are the ones that I
• 59:14
  Speaker 7: think that had real exciting odds. Yeah.
• 59:16
  Speaker 6: Okay.
• 59:17
  Speaker 7: But you know what? We can't go backwards.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm just going to bet no then. You're betting no?
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Get my $ 3, yeah.
• 59:23
  Speaker 7: You won't bet on Dan.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: I'm also betting no, but I would have bet if
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: there had been... What are the odds on he gets
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: out on one knee for poses, she says no?
• 59:31
  Speaker 7: Okay, hold on, hold on, hold on. All right, you
• 59:34
  Speaker 7: know what? Let's make this more interesting. I'm taking the
• 59:36
  Speaker 7: odds up to 2,000. 2,000 that Travis will get on
• 59:40
  Speaker 7: one knee. You'll take the whole fucking thing.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: No, there's no way it's happening.
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 59:45
  Speaker 6: Okay, she.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: Usher brings her out. She performs. Travis runs out onto
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: the field from the locker room and then asks her
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: to marry him after the performance.
• 59:56
  Speaker 7: You want that?
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: What happens if someone dumps red Gatorade on Travis Kelsey
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: after he proposes?
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: And then Robert Herr walks out on the field, indicts
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: them all.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 7: Yeah. No fun for anybody. Trump 2024. All right. Well,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 7: we all heard it. We all have the odds. Basically
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 7: a lot riding on red Gatorade.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: At this point. And which quarterback has more completions.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 7: And that's what this was always the thing that was
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 7: most important to me. This Purdy fellow versus Mahomes. And,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 7: you know, we'll run the numbers. We'll crunch the numbers
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 7: and we'll see what happened. And we'll see who has
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 7: to beseech Taylor on social media.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: Can't wait. Thanks, everyone.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: Bye, everyone.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: We'll talk to you on Tuesday. If you want to
• 1:00:46
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• 1:00:49
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• 1:00:53
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  Speaker 1: a review. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: Our associate producers are Saul Rubin and Farah Safari. Kira
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: Wakeem is our senior producer. Reed Cherlin is our executive producer.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Writing support by Hallie Kiefer. Madeline
• 1:01:28
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• 1:01:31
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• 1:01:34
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• 1:01:37
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