Latest / Stephanomics / Tory Landslide, Now What? (Bloomberg Westminster Bonus Episode)

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Tory Landslide, Now What? (Bloomberg Westminster Bonus Episode) · Stephanomics

0:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, this one nation Conservative government has been given a
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Speaker 1: powerful new mandate to get Britit done. I will discuss
0:11
Speaker 1: with our party to ensure there is a process now
0:15
Speaker 1: of reflection on this result and on the policies that
0:18
Speaker 1: the party will take. This is so unique an outcome.
0:21
Speaker 1: There's there's been a party that's gone to the country
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Speaker 1: for the fourth time of asking and increased its standing
0:26
Speaker 1: in Parliament. There is a clear desire and endorsement for
0:29
Speaker 1: the notion that Scotland should not be landed with a
0:32
Speaker 1: Boris Johnson government and Bripto of Europa Gainsto will. Hello,
0:40
Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg Westminster, a special hour long election
0:44
Speaker 1: results program. I'm a very very tired Sebastian side. Good afternoon.
0:48
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka. Yes, the Toys have won their biggest
0:52
Speaker 1: majority since under Margaret Thatcher. It really was a huge
0:58
Speaker 1: result for the party and really a massive chain for
1:00
Speaker 1: the country. Yeah, I mean redrawing the electoral map, getting
1:03
Speaker 1: some certainty. Finally, let's just have a little listen to
1:06
Speaker 1: what the Prime Minister had to say as he addressed
1:07
Speaker 1: his supporters early this morning. With this mandate and this majority,
1:11
Speaker 1: we will at last be able to do what there
1:18
Speaker 1: we go, so a bit of clarity on Brexit. Then
1:20
Speaker 1: we'll have a talk throughout the program about the route
1:22
Speaker 1: ahead really as we look to be exitingct ON on
1:25
Speaker 1: January the thirty one investors at least to please assets
1:28
Speaker 1: lifting across Europe, from the pound to the euro to
1:30
Speaker 1: the UK stocks. It's what they've certainly been looking for
1:33
Speaker 1: for a long long time. Absolutely, and we've got a
1:35
Speaker 1: cracking lineup for you this hour man who read the
1:38
Speaker 1: leader of the Women's Equality Party because we have a
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Speaker 1: record number of female MPs in this electoral cycle. Also,
1:45
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's head of Economics Stephanie Flanders, will be with us
1:48
Speaker 1: to break down what we can expect from this new
1:50
Speaker 1: Toy administration. And Alan Wager, the research associate at UK
1:54
Speaker 1: in a changing You, will also be here to talk
1:57
Speaker 1: us through all the implications for Brexit, the UK EU
2:01
Speaker 1: trade negotiations. We've got a lot of angles covered, We've
2:04
Speaker 1: got a lot to talk about. Let's get right into it.
2:06
Speaker 1: Joining us now live from Westminster is Bloomberg's Roger Hearing,
2:09
Speaker 1: and here with us in the studio is Bloomberg Opinions
2:11
Speaker 1: Tres Raphael Toores let's start with you. You watch the
2:14
Speaker 1: whole thing, someone up for us an unexpectedly strong showing.
2:17
Speaker 1: Then what won it really for Boris Johnson? Was it
2:19
Speaker 1: the anti Corbyn vote? Was it the pro Brexit vote?
2:22
Speaker 1: Talk us through all the issues? Yeah, so I think
2:24
Speaker 1: most people will say that two things. Want it for
2:26
Speaker 1: Johnson Brexit, want it for Johnson. People really took to
2:31
Speaker 1: his message that the get Brexit done message. In fact,
2:34
Speaker 1: it cut both ways. So it cut for the Brexitters
2:38
Speaker 1: who you know, clearly want to see their mandate carried out,
2:42
Speaker 1: but it also worked for moderates and remainders who may
2:47
Speaker 1: accept the vote and just don't want the argument anymore.
2:51
Speaker 1: So that was one thing that worked clearly. The second
2:53
Speaker 1: thing that worked for Boris Johnson was he was very
2:57
Speaker 1: lucky in his opponent here, Jeremy Corbyn, was you know,
3:00
Speaker 1: historically unpopular candidate. His message was wrong, his uh you know,
3:05
Speaker 1: entire sort of record on foreign policy worried people. The
3:10
Speaker 1: anti semitism uh row within the Labor Party has cut
3:14
Speaker 1: through to voters, I think in a way that Labor
3:16
Speaker 1: really didn't expect. And even the economic policies at Corbin unveiled.
3:20
Speaker 1: He threw the kitchen sink at this very radical socialist offering.
3:24
Speaker 1: That didn't work. But I would argue there was a
3:26
Speaker 1: third thing that worked for Boris Johnson uh in this election,
3:29
Speaker 1: and that um is that he was seen as the
3:32
Speaker 1: politician of change. And that is kind of surprising given
3:36
Speaker 1: that he's been a senior member the Tory Party, which
3:39
Speaker 1: has been in power for nearly a decade, had four governments,
3:42
Speaker 1: and yet Johnson was able to portray himself as the
3:46
Speaker 1: change politician. Really fascinating. Let's get to Bloomberg's ro Ja Herring.
3:51
Speaker 1: You've been standing outside the Palace of Westminster, so you've
3:55
Speaker 1: seen all the politicians coming onto the Green for their interviews.
4:00
Speaker 1: We had some Toy politicians on air this morning on Daybreak.
4:04
Speaker 1: You a sort of sounding absolutely joyous. Does give us
4:07
Speaker 1: a flavor of this result? Well, yes, I think joyous,
4:11
Speaker 1: but also absolutely frozen, because I have say it's been
4:14
Speaker 1: the most startlingly awful weather down here. Talk about a
4:17
Speaker 1: December election problem, but certainly know that the Tories we've
4:21
Speaker 1: been speaking to ice have all been extremely happy, as
4:24
Speaker 1: you would expect they would be. And this is interesting
4:27
Speaker 1: because we have seen the Tory Party hugely divided in
4:30
Speaker 1: the recent past. You know, they managed to alienate and
4:33
Speaker 1: indeed get rid of a large number of quite prominent Tories,
4:37
Speaker 1: several of whom have been calling for the voters to
4:40
Speaker 1: support the opposition. So this was a triumph on so
4:42
Speaker 1: many different levels. And I had one extra element to
4:45
Speaker 1: what Rose was saying three points. I'd had a fourth one,
4:48
Speaker 1: which is the squeeze, because at the beginning of this
4:50
Speaker 1: campaign we were talking about how the Lib Dems or
4:54
Speaker 1: the Brexit Party would split votes in such a way
4:57
Speaker 1: as to put pressure on the Tories particul kill also
5:00
Speaker 1: potentially on Labor and that really was the dog that
5:03
Speaker 1: didn't bark. If you look at the figures. The Lib
5:05
Speaker 1: Dems clearly didn't do well, but the Brexit Party didn't either.
5:08
Speaker 1: So in the end that was the dog that didn't bark.
5:11
Speaker 1: But then Roger there were more winners. In Scotland, the
5:14
Speaker 1: SNP a strong message there for a second referendum, and
5:17
Speaker 1: in Northern Ireland we saw those in favor of reunification.
5:20
Speaker 1: They're also playing through. Well, this is going to put
5:23
Speaker 1: some level of pressure on Boris Johnson, isn't it. It's
5:25
Speaker 1: certainly well. I mean the Northern Ireland thing is absolutely
5:27
Speaker 1: crucially are quite right Sebastian, because that is the if
5:31
Speaker 1: you like, the the Achilles Heel of the Brexit deal,
5:33
Speaker 1: because you've got the two borders that Boris Johnson in visages,
5:37
Speaker 1: one dawn the Irish Sea and one between Northern Ireland
5:40
Speaker 1: and the Republic. And how that's going to work and
5:43
Speaker 1: the difficulties it will cause for business people in Northern Ireland,
5:46
Speaker 1: quite apart from anything else, is a very point. The
5:49
Speaker 1: DUP were completely alienated, of course from Boris Johnson before
5:53
Speaker 1: all this, but they have been one of the big
5:55
Speaker 1: losers for the first time I think in recent history anyway.
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Speaker 1: There are fewer Unionists representing Northern Ireland in this building
6:01
Speaker 1: behind me than people who are nationalists or uncommitted, and
6:05
Speaker 1: that is going to make a big difference. And Scotland,
6:08
Speaker 1: of course, that's the other thing. SMP didn't have a
6:10
Speaker 1: clean sweep, but they did extremely well. The pressure for
6:12
Speaker 1: a second independence referendum, I would say it's almost unstoppable,
6:16
Speaker 1: despite the fact that Boris Johnson has set his face
6:18
Speaker 1: against him. Turning to Terra's the points that Roger is
6:23
Speaker 1: making there there is some some strains around Brexit. Of
6:27
Speaker 1: course with with Northern Ireland, do we actually end up
6:30
Speaker 1: getting a softer Brexit deal now because Bois Johnson has
6:34
Speaker 1: such a big majority, but also because of the separatist threats. Obviously,
6:40
Speaker 1: Scotland in a voted to remain yes as the as
6:44
Speaker 1: the polls were still open yesterday, I was thinking that
6:47
Speaker 1: if this were to be a majority of say ten
6:49
Speaker 1: votes or twenty votes, we are right back where we
6:52
Speaker 1: were when Teresa May was trying to get things through,
6:55
Speaker 1: in that the right of his party would be able
6:57
Speaker 1: to sort of hold him to ransom. That is clearly
7:00
Speaker 1: not the case. He has a whopping majority and all
7:04
Speaker 1: the authority to go first after Brexit within his own party.
7:07
Speaker 1: But he also um could drive a harder bargain with
7:11
Speaker 1: Europe in the sense that you know he's not going
7:13
Speaker 1: to have to go back to Parliament and and you
7:16
Speaker 1: know try to uh scrounge for those votes. Um he
7:20
Speaker 1: will be I think of these two unionist issues, I
7:24
Speaker 1: mean it's to say it was a very good night
7:26
Speaker 1: for English nationalists, it was a bad night for the
7:29
Speaker 1: British Union. Of the two issues Scotland and Northern Ireland,
7:32
Speaker 1: I think the Scottish issue is the more pressing um
7:35
Speaker 1: in the short term because the SNP are going to
7:38
Speaker 1: want that vote now. He may be able to delay
7:40
Speaker 1: things until the Hollywood, uh, the elections in but you
7:45
Speaker 1: know that that's really on the horizon. Yeah. Indeed, what
7:48
Speaker 1: of course we've got uh now speaking actually the head
7:51
Speaker 1: of the SMP. So this is Nicholas Sturgeon, who's hailing
7:55
Speaker 1: the emphatic victory for her party, the Scottish National Party.
7:59
Speaker 1: As a menting on the election results, she's saying Sebastian
8:04
Speaker 1: that Scotland has yet again said no to Brexit. Yeah,
8:08
Speaker 1: that's going to put Johnson in a tricky position there really,
8:11
Speaker 1: Remember it was about sixty forty the first time around.
8:14
Speaker 1: Very much a resounding no once again, as she says,
8:17
Speaker 1: and that further shows the splits in the country. There's
8:20
Speaker 1: so much talk from him about reuniting the country, remember
8:23
Speaker 1: Scotland as part of that. That's not going to be easy.
8:26
Speaker 1: Roger talks to me about the North of England and
8:28
Speaker 1: the Midlands. We've seen a very big shift in the
8:31
Speaker 1: electoral map. A lot of seats that have never been
8:33
Speaker 1: Conservative before have gone to the party. Is this here
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Speaker 1: to change or is this a case of vote lending.
8:39
Speaker 1: What's your sense, Well, first of all, I just have
8:42
Speaker 1: to give you a kind of cultural feeling. I mean,
8:44
Speaker 1: I'm I'm pretty ancient, it has to be said. I
8:46
Speaker 1: remember being under Thatcher, and I mean the red wall
8:49
Speaker 1: didn't break then he has broken. Now. Names I never
8:54
Speaker 1: thought would ever be considered as a Tory possibilities, County Durham,
8:59
Speaker 1: around that sort of area, and it's gone. I think
9:01
Speaker 1: it's a it's a huge change, and it may be
9:03
Speaker 1: a cultural change in the sense that we may be
9:05
Speaker 1: seeing a realignment. Now whether that realignment will follow perhaps
9:09
Speaker 1: as one person suggested, that the towns will go for
9:12
Speaker 1: the Tories and the cities will go for Labor in
9:14
Speaker 1: future that kind of thing, or maybe not even the
9:17
Speaker 1: Labor Party, maybe some new version that will come that
9:20
Speaker 1: will represent that sort of interest, that sort of ground.
9:23
Speaker 1: But it's easy, I guess to be a bit apocalyptic
9:25
Speaker 1: about it. But but to answer your questions, I ask you,
9:27
Speaker 1: I think this is more than simply a cosmetic change. Okay,
9:32
Speaker 1: today's where do you think that leaves the Labor Party?
9:36
Speaker 1: The Liberal Democrats. Also that the leader of the Liberal
9:38
Speaker 1: Democrats resigning, Joe Swinton again a kind of generational shift,
9:43
Speaker 1: a young female leader resigning. The other two roads failed
9:48
Speaker 1: spectacularly here, the far left some would call it, and
9:52
Speaker 1: the anti Brexit road. They both failed. Yeah, I mean
9:55
Speaker 1: I think the Liberal Democrats, you know, they had they
9:59
Speaker 1: were beset by number of errors, uh not least their
10:02
Speaker 1: decision to go for a revoking Brexit policy. But I
10:05
Speaker 1: think what we learned here is that tactical voting does
10:09
Speaker 1: not work when the uh, when the two parties just
10:12
Speaker 1: simply can't agree with one another. So had you had
10:15
Speaker 1: a Labor government, that Labor Party that the Lib Dems
10:18
Speaker 1: could support in government, we might have seen something different.
10:21
Speaker 1: But your question about the Labor Party, I think is
10:23
Speaker 1: the key one. I mean, this is her Majesty's loyal opposition.
10:27
Speaker 1: As I was listening to Labor politicians throughout the night,
10:31
Speaker 1: you could just see the fight in that party over
10:34
Speaker 1: what went wrong, with Corbin's defenders saying it was Brexit
10:38
Speaker 1: and others saying, no, it's not just Brexit, it's Corbin
10:40
Speaker 1: himself and Corbin is um and this radical agenda. There's
10:44
Speaker 1: now going to be a leadership battle royal in that party.
10:48
Speaker 1: But the structure of the party in the way they
10:50
Speaker 1: choose the leaders really stacks it in favor of the
10:53
Speaker 1: supporters of Corbin and McDonald to begin with, and so
10:56
Speaker 1: it's going to be very difficult for that party to
10:59
Speaker 1: change in the way it needs to to win back
11:01
Speaker 1: some of these voters. In a way, the Tories, you know,
11:04
Speaker 1: they've won the twenty nineteen election, I think they're already
11:06
Speaker 1: going to be feeling pretty good about so with less
11:09
Speaker 1: than a minute on the clock to raise it's Corbin
11:11
Speaker 1: is m dead as it had its day. I think
11:13
Speaker 1: Corbin is um should be considered dead and buried. I
11:16
Speaker 1: don't think that means it will be considered dead and
11:18
Speaker 1: buried by the Labor Party, but you know, it just
11:21
Speaker 1: may take them another defeat to learn. Yeah. Well, look
11:24
Speaker 1: the turnout also that we were closely watching, given that
11:27
Speaker 1: Roger's freezing it out there outside of Parliament and we
11:30
Speaker 1: were all, you know, in the rain yesterday. Actually the
11:32
Speaker 1: turnout was strong and the majority for the Conservative Party
11:36
Speaker 1: really quite stunning, at the largest since the nineteen eighties.
11:40
Speaker 1: So our thanks to Bloomberg's Roger hearing Life from Westminster
11:44
Speaker 1: and also Bloomberg Opinion columnists Terra's Raphael for joining let's
11:49
Speaker 1: talk about one of the other big issues going on, Caroline. Yeah. Indeed,
11:52
Speaker 1: this is the record number of female MPs who have
11:56
Speaker 1: been elected to the House of Commons in the general election.
12:00
Speaker 1: Some two hundred and twenty women have won seats. It's
12:04
Speaker 1: up from two hundred and eight two years ago. But
12:06
Speaker 1: don't cheer too soon, because actually female MP's will only
12:09
Speaker 1: make up thirty four of the Commons. And that's why
12:13
Speaker 1: I'm pleased to welcome Man Do Reid, who is the
12:15
Speaker 1: leader of the Women's Equality Party, who joins us. Now
12:19
Speaker 1: very we'll welcome to Blueberg, Westminster. Thank you for joining us. So, look,
12:24
Speaker 1: you put up candidates in opposition to MPs or prospective
12:30
Speaker 1: parliamentary candidates who you felt, you know, their record on
12:33
Speaker 1: women's rights or women's issues were particularly negative, and you
12:38
Speaker 1: feel that you've had some success in that sense. Our
12:42
Speaker 1: specific tactic was actually to um target MPs who had
12:45
Speaker 1: unresolved allegations of harassment or violent or aggressive behavior towards
12:51
Speaker 1: women on their record. So we wanted to highlight that
12:54
Speaker 1: issue because when you're looking at the experience of women
12:57
Speaker 1: in Westminster, it's really really important to understand the backdrop
13:00
Speaker 1: an environment within which they were operating. So we targeted
13:03
Speaker 1: five MPs, as I say, with those unresolved allegations before
13:05
Speaker 1: a single vote have been counted. Four of those, because
13:08
Speaker 1: of the pressure we applied, actually stood down and the
13:11
Speaker 1: final one, um Ivan Lewis lost his seat last night.
13:14
Speaker 1: So for us, for the Women's Equality Party, uh you
13:17
Speaker 1: could you could say are our general election campaign was
13:20
Speaker 1: a resounding success. And what about the statistic that Caroline
13:23
Speaker 1: alluded to a moment a record number of female MPs.
13:26
Speaker 1: Was a good election for women in general? Um, I
13:28
Speaker 1: think representation is really important and it is one of
13:31
Speaker 1: the goals that the Women's Equality Party pursues. However, um,
13:35
Speaker 1: you know, thirty four percent is not where we need
13:38
Speaker 1: to be. It's an improvement and that's a positive thing.
13:41
Speaker 1: It's also worth looking at how that breaks down, um
13:44
Speaker 1: within Westminster. So the Tories actually have only returned twenty
13:48
Speaker 1: four percent of their MPs um as who are women,
13:51
Speaker 1: whereas a Labor Party have done really well and over
13:53
Speaker 1: fifty of their new cohort of MPs are women. So
13:56
Speaker 1: there's there's a mixed picture. But you have to remember
13:58
Speaker 1: is what happened in the run up to the election.
14:01
Speaker 1: Several senior MP's cabinet level MPs, talented, brilliant women stood
14:05
Speaker 1: down and cited many of them cited abuse and harassment
14:09
Speaker 1: as their reason for doing so. So we have a
14:11
Speaker 1: situation where there's lots of newcomers and that's fantastic, but
14:14
Speaker 1: actually the kind of bottom of the pile, it will
14:17
Speaker 1: be a while before they progress and developed to those
14:20
Speaker 1: senior levels, to those cabinet level positions. And so yes,
14:23
Speaker 1: there's something to celebrate if you're looking at the raw numbers,
14:26
Speaker 1: but it's a much more complicated picture. And for women
14:28
Speaker 1: to really have an impact on the impact we need
14:30
Speaker 1: them to have in the context of a damaging Brexit
14:33
Speaker 1: that's on the horizon, we need women all throughout the system.
14:37
Speaker 1: Junior senior across the board. What did you make then
14:40
Speaker 1: of the manifestos and what do you think of the
14:42
Speaker 1: toy Party manifesto in particular. Obviously, given the landslide victory
14:47
Speaker 1: that they have had, it was seen as a set
14:51
Speaker 1: of manifestos with little content, you know, specifically aimed at women.
14:56
Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say. I think it is
14:58
Speaker 1: fair to say that, and when you look at the
15:00
Speaker 1: interpiece of the Tory manifesto, get Brexit done. Hang on
15:03
Speaker 1: a minute. Brexit is not going to be um impact
15:07
Speaker 1: neutral on women. Brexit is going to result in women
15:11
Speaker 1: bearing the burden of the economic consequences that this country
15:15
Speaker 1: has to shoulder as we leave the European Union and
15:21
Speaker 1: in January, and none of that has been factored in.
15:24
Speaker 1: Has there been an a sort of impact equality impact
15:27
Speaker 1: assessment of Brexit looking at the gender impacts of it. No,
15:30
Speaker 1: And it's irresponsible to do that in a climate where
15:33
Speaker 1: so many of the services that women rely on are
15:36
Speaker 1: already on the back foot, have already been decimated, and
15:39
Speaker 1: women's unpaid care work is just assumed um to be
15:43
Speaker 1: something that will prop up the economy and and and
15:46
Speaker 1: keep everything going. Hang on a second. We had Joe
15:48
Speaker 1: Swintz in the head of the Liberal Democrats, youngest ever leader,
15:52
Speaker 1: female leader. You know, we've just come out of a
15:55
Speaker 1: phase of having a second female Tory prime minister, you know,
16:00
Speaker 1: doing reasonably well compared to let's say other European nations
16:03
Speaker 1: and global developed countries at least. So we've had two
16:07
Speaker 1: Tory female prime ministers out of how many prime ministers,
16:10
Speaker 1: it's a tiny sample. Those are break They have to
16:13
Speaker 1: benchmarkt against other developed countries. I mean, you know, in
16:17
Speaker 1: only seventy years, it's that we got the vote, right. Um.
16:21
Speaker 1: I think it's really an oversimplification to zoom in on
16:25
Speaker 1: the few women who have rosen to the top in
16:27
Speaker 1: hostile conditions, conditions who have had to endure the the
16:33
Speaker 1: environment which actually creates it makes it much more difficult
16:37
Speaker 1: for for women to sort of fulfill their potential. They're
16:39
Speaker 1: not welcomed in these in these environments, and so I
16:42
Speaker 1: think to point to those two examples doesn't really help
16:45
Speaker 1: us analyze the way politics is dysfunctional when it comes
16:49
Speaker 1: to serving women's needs. So how do you address that?
16:51
Speaker 1: Because an election is a democratic exercise and the last
16:54
Speaker 1: election we saw Theresa May do so badly and Boris
16:57
Speaker 1: Johnson do very well based on a very similar strategy,
16:59
Speaker 1: and of course this time we saw Joe S Winston
17:01
Speaker 1: get absolute battering. I mean, that is exactly why if
17:05
Speaker 1: you're talking about the campaign we run in the Women's
17:08
Speaker 1: Equality Party, we recognize that the environment, um, the structural
17:12
Speaker 1: barriers that women face need to be addressed in order
17:15
Speaker 1: to get us to where we need to be, to
17:17
Speaker 1: get us to a place where men and women are
17:19
Speaker 1: sharing power equally and that's serving um society as a whole.
17:24
Speaker 1: And so you know, if you don't address the fact
17:26
Speaker 1: that one in five people who work in Westminster have
17:29
Speaker 1: reported that they've been harassed, um, you're not creating a
17:33
Speaker 1: level playing field for women. You're having a situation where
17:36
Speaker 1: women have to put up with um uh. You know,
17:41
Speaker 1: a working environment that actually isn't as hostile to men,
17:45
Speaker 1: and so women have to have more resilience and that
17:47
Speaker 1: takes its toll. You know, the women who stood down,
17:49
Speaker 1: many of them prior to to the election. Those are
17:52
Speaker 1: women who had served maybe um nine or ten years.
17:55
Speaker 1: The men on average who stood down, you know, voluntary
17:57
Speaker 1: off their own accord. They had long careers in parliament.
18:01
Speaker 1: So women are being hounded out and men are leaving
18:03
Speaker 1: on their own terms, and we are all poorer because
18:05
Speaker 1: of that. You know. Joe Swinston, she lost her seat.
18:08
Speaker 1: That's that's the voters saying no thank you to her.
18:10
Speaker 1: But that's not because she's a woman exactly. And look,
18:14
Speaker 1: I mean, these are depressing figures that the you that
18:18
Speaker 1: you are highlighting. But I suppose again on the flip side,
18:21
Speaker 1: could one not argue that at least with this Toy
18:26
Speaker 1: administration coming in, it's the end of the austerity years,
18:30
Speaker 1: which many people again have raised the issue that it
18:32
Speaker 1: has disproportionately affected women. So at least, you know, we're
18:35
Speaker 1: back into spending mode, which might help to lift many
18:38
Speaker 1: of those women and families, you know, perhaps out of
18:42
Speaker 1: out of more difficult circumstance. Any economists worth his or her,
18:46
Speaker 1: and that it's usually his worth worth their salt, um
18:49
Speaker 1: is going to tell you that, Um, the prospects aren't
18:53
Speaker 1: bright and rosie when it comes to dealing with the
18:56
Speaker 1: immediate aftermath of leaving the European Union, and when things
19:00
Speaker 1: aren't bright and rosy economically, what there does is results
19:03
Speaker 1: in a situation where women are carrying a disproportion at burden.
19:07
Speaker 1: So you can say that it's post asterity now, but
19:09
Speaker 1: we're entering a new phase where we've got economic challenges
19:14
Speaker 1: that haven't been analyzed for the impact they're going to
19:18
Speaker 1: have on women, And the manifesto said nothing that. So
19:21
Speaker 1: why when all of these statistics are so dire, why
19:24
Speaker 1: have we had so little impact in terms of changing
19:27
Speaker 1: the political system. Does it mean that we have to
19:30
Speaker 1: have you know, entirely balanced lists for for candidates which
19:34
Speaker 1: we did not see, I mean, gender balanced candidates which
19:37
Speaker 1: we didn't see in the last election. You know, what
19:40
Speaker 1: is it that you would be pushing for for for
19:43
Speaker 1: the administration? Now? The bigger picture is a proper electoral reform,
19:49
Speaker 1: so proportional representation to make sure there are representatives and
19:54
Speaker 1: our parliament is responsive to the people. I mean, look
19:58
Speaker 1: at what about a female leader for for the Labor
20:00
Speaker 1: Party there? Yeah, I think that's um, I think there's
20:03
Speaker 1: a good chance of that happening this time around. There's
20:05
Speaker 1: some strong women who will be in the running. But
20:07
Speaker 1: you know something, I've gotta say, there's something that makes
20:08
Speaker 1: me a little nervous about that because, um, the idea
20:12
Speaker 1: of finally the Labor Party this time around putting a
20:15
Speaker 1: woman at a woman at the helm makes me nervous
20:18
Speaker 1: because of the glass cliff phenomenon. She will be inheriting
20:21
Speaker 1: a really really difficult set of circumstances, a bit like
20:24
Speaker 1: the reason may inherited right in media after the after
20:27
Speaker 1: the referendum. And um, I think, you know, we need
20:30
Speaker 1: to look really carefully. If a woman does take the
20:33
Speaker 1: helm at the Labor Party, watch what challenges she's facing.
20:36
Speaker 1: So what about a compromise them, what about a job
20:38
Speaker 1: share because it's something that's been touted and it's the
20:40
Speaker 1: Green Party that doesn't already. Um, and then you get
20:43
Speaker 1: that gender balance and also you have easier living arrangements
20:46
Speaker 1: in terms of childcare and all the rest of it
20:47
Speaker 1: opens up those options. Look, I'm all for creative solutions.
20:51
Speaker 1: I'm off for breaking um down some of the assumptions
20:55
Speaker 1: about how politics should work so that it's more inclusive
20:58
Speaker 1: and more accessible and more people. Absolutely, I I think
21:02
Speaker 1: the Labor Party needs to have a long hard look
21:04
Speaker 1: at its constitution and the way it operates because actually
21:07
Speaker 1: some of the some of those kind of maladaptive behaviors
21:10
Speaker 1: have resulted in their downfall. They're so tribal, they really
21:14
Speaker 1: struggled to collaborate. Um. It is often seen as a
21:18
Speaker 1: hostile environment for women in that party. So they got
21:21
Speaker 1: a lot of work to do. Okay, so Labor has
21:23
Speaker 1: a lot of work to do. What about Joe Swinson?
21:25
Speaker 1: Was her downfall due to sexism? Earlier you sort of
21:29
Speaker 1: said no, you discounted that, but but just explained you
21:33
Speaker 1: don't think that that was a factor. Then here, Um,
21:36
Speaker 1: I think the whole the Libdens entire general election campaign
21:42
Speaker 1: clearly didn't go to plan right, UM, And I think
21:45
Speaker 1: a lot of miscalculations were made, um in terms of
21:48
Speaker 1: the strategy that they went for. I mean I remember
21:52
Speaker 1: shortly after Joe was elected as leader and she went,
21:55
Speaker 1: you know, all guns blazing into her party conference, full
21:58
Speaker 1: of beans, full of positivity, UM, really believing. UM. I
22:03
Speaker 1: guess the Lib DEM's own hype a little bit there,
22:07
Speaker 1: h and actually probably overplayed their hand. But she's not
22:12
Speaker 1: alone responsible for that. They would have been a team
22:14
Speaker 1: of strategists. I know she's she she is ultimately accountable
22:18
Speaker 1: as the leader, but I don't think it's to do
22:20
Speaker 1: with her being a woman. The fact that the Lib
22:22
Speaker 1: Dems made some really huge strategic errors. And what about
22:26
Speaker 1: Boris Johnson very quickly, A lot of talk about him
22:29
Speaker 1: having a woman problem doesn't seem to have come through
22:31
Speaker 1: the election result. Yeah, I've got to say, I am
22:36
Speaker 1: quite astonished, um at the majority you know Boris's Tories
22:42
Speaker 1: have managed to combine in this election. UM. I I
22:45
Speaker 1: would have thought so much of the stuff that um
22:49
Speaker 1: Boris Johnson's associated with would have turned voters off in
22:53
Speaker 1: in sufficient proportion so as to at best result in
22:56
Speaker 1: them having a slim majority. It's but I think what
22:59
Speaker 1: one of the things as that happened is a little
23:00
Speaker 1: bit like the Trump campaign in twent sixteen. He reached
23:03
Speaker 1: this sort of teflon stage where it didn't matter what
23:06
Speaker 1: people said or what people reminded the public. He had
23:10
Speaker 1: done some of his attitude, some of his approaches to
23:13
Speaker 1: doing things, and yeah, he became invulnerable. Man, do thank
23:17
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us this morning. That's man,
23:19
Speaker 1: do read, leader of the Women's Equality Party, talking us
23:22
Speaker 1: through the election result here on Bloomberg Westerns. Let's get
23:28
Speaker 1: right over to Roger hearing you're standing by. Who have
23:30
Speaker 1: you got for us? Roger? Well with me? Is? Francis said? Great?
23:33
Speaker 1: The General secretary of the Chip Traders Union Congress. Do
23:36
Speaker 1: you see Francis welcome, Thanks very much for being with us. Um,
23:39
Speaker 1: I guess you're not in the celebratory mood this morning.
23:42
Speaker 1: This is a deeply disappointing result for labor, but more
23:45
Speaker 1: importantly for the ordinary people that labor was promising to
23:50
Speaker 1: transform their lives. Well, not least the trade union part
23:54
Speaker 1: of that. Because trade unions are big part of the
23:55
Speaker 1: labor movement. They gave firm support to Jeremy Corbyn. Was
24:00
Speaker 1: that a mistake? I think it's important that the trade
24:03
Speaker 1: union movement has a political voice. We've always understood that's important,
24:08
Speaker 1: that we needed to win good rights for people at work.
24:13
Speaker 1: But clearly it's disappointing. The only thing I would say
24:16
Speaker 1: is that you know the pressure is on Boris Johnson.
24:20
Speaker 1: Now this could end up being the shortest honeymoon ever.
24:23
Speaker 1: Would you say that he's got a whacking majority on
24:26
Speaker 1: which he's got to deliver? You know, are we going
24:29
Speaker 1: to see real investment in the North, Are we going
24:31
Speaker 1: to see the NHS saved? What kind of deal is
24:34
Speaker 1: he going to negotiate on Brexit? And will it be
24:37
Speaker 1: one that protects people's dolls? All right, that's what's to come,
24:40
Speaker 1: But but let's let's actually focus on what has been
24:43
Speaker 1: because that is important. This was a situation in which
24:46
Speaker 1: Jeremy Corbyn promised an awful lot he didn't deliver, at
24:49
Speaker 1: least as far as the voters are concerned. We know
24:51
Speaker 1: that now. Do you think now we need to have
24:54
Speaker 1: a change of pace with the Labor Party following a
24:58
Speaker 1: non coorbinist line, if we can put it that way,
25:00
Speaker 1: What we do know is that many of Labor's individual
25:03
Speaker 1: policies were incredibly popular, from bringing Rail back into public
25:08
Speaker 1: control to banning zero hours contracts and funding the NHS.
25:13
Speaker 1: So I think the problem here wasn't the individual policies
25:17
Speaker 1: within the manifesto. We could, you know, question whether sharper
25:22
Speaker 1: prior to well, we know that Labor lost in both
25:26
Speaker 1: Brexit both leave and remain voting areas, So I'm not
25:31
Speaker 1: sure it's as simple as Brexit. I think people were
25:33
Speaker 1: tired of it. I think the conservative message of let's
25:38
Speaker 1: get it done certainly resonated, but I'm not sure it's
25:40
Speaker 1: as simple as that, because we've still got that big
25:43
Speaker 1: debate about what kind of Brexit. Well, yeah, okay, let's
25:46
Speaker 1: part Brexit and say it was Jeremy Corbyn. The number
25:49
Speaker 1: of Labor candidates I've spoken to, I'm sure you must
25:52
Speaker 1: have the same who said this was the problem on
25:54
Speaker 1: the doors, that people didn't like it. Well, without doubt,
25:58
Speaker 1: leadership was a factor, and I think Jeremy Corbyn himself
26:01
Speaker 1: described himself as a marmite leader. Um, and of course
26:05
Speaker 1: none of our political leaders are doing too well in
26:07
Speaker 1: the popularity stakes, but clearly it should be a time
26:11
Speaker 1: where Labor doesn't descend into dissunity, but instead takes a long,
26:17
Speaker 1: hard look at what did go wrong, Listen to the
26:19
Speaker 1: people who voted for the Conservative Party who should have
26:24
Speaker 1: been natural Labor supporters, and learned some lessons alight. One
26:27
Speaker 1: of the lessons is perhaps having a different leader. Who
26:29
Speaker 1: would you like to see leaving leading the Labor Party.
26:31
Speaker 1: I think it's far too early. Jeremy Corbyn has already
26:35
Speaker 1: said he's not taking the party in for the next election.
26:37
Speaker 1: He has and he's also said that we need a
26:39
Speaker 1: period of reflection. What I what I do know is
26:42
Speaker 1: that we need a leader who has the values of
26:47
Speaker 1: Labor in terms of looking for a fairer society and
26:50
Speaker 1: a decent economy that can fund our public services. Perhaps
26:53
Speaker 1: a woman. Labors the last major party not to have
26:56
Speaker 1: a woman as a leader. Again, Labor has the opportunity
27:00
Speaker 1: city within its leadership team, and I think it should
27:05
Speaker 1: the opportunity of making sure there's a woman in the
27:07
Speaker 1: leadership team. But I think the big issue here is
27:10
Speaker 1: we need somebody with vision who can inspire trust and
27:13
Speaker 1: confidence in our heartlands what should be our heartlands that
27:18
Speaker 1: they will deliver the real bread and butter changes that
27:22
Speaker 1: people want to see in Britain today because you know,
27:25
Speaker 1: inequality hasn't gone away. And I can tell you this,
27:28
Speaker 1: I think the Prime Minister is going to have to
27:30
Speaker 1: deal with some of these difficult issues. You're going to
27:33
Speaker 1: have to deal with him. Back to the point for
27:34
Speaker 1: the next five years, you and the trade union movement.
27:37
Speaker 1: You've got someone who isn't naturally an ally. How are
27:40
Speaker 1: you going to deal with him? Well, we always seek
27:43
Speaker 1: to represent working pupil's views, whoever's in government. We've always
27:47
Speaker 1: done that. You know, I've met with Conservative prime ministers before.
27:51
Speaker 1: All we ask for is a fair hearing and we
27:53
Speaker 1: think we've got a case to make. So I look
27:57
Speaker 1: forward to meeting the new Prime Minister and to do
28:00
Speaker 1: that to us already written in the sandwich not sandwich
28:06
Speaker 1: is Maybe I would hope that any Prime Minister of
28:11
Speaker 1: the country recognizes it's important to speak to the leaders
28:14
Speaker 1: of what is a movement of six million people and
28:18
Speaker 1: still growing. All right, Francis O'Grady, thank you very much
28:21
Speaker 1: joining us here. That's Francis A Grady, Secretary General of
28:24
Speaker 1: the Trades Union Congress, speaking to here live outside the
28:27
Speaker 1: House of Commons, where I think there'll be more people
28:29
Speaker 1: that she will not be sympathetic with in there than
28:31
Speaker 1: they happen in the past. So a bit of a
28:34
Speaker 1: bit of a job for you to do. Francis Grady,
28:35
Speaker 1: thanks for me with us, and back to you. Carolina Sebastian,
28:39
Speaker 1: thank you so much. What you're hearing their live outside
28:41
Speaker 1: of Westminster and listening into that conversation is blue Berg's
28:45
Speaker 1: head of economics, Deephanie Flanders. Welcome to the program, Thanks
28:47
Speaker 1: for joining us. Look what do you make of this? Then?
28:50
Speaker 1: The Tory landslide biggest majority since the TUC the Trades
28:56
Speaker 1: Union Congress. They're going to have a very tough time
29:00
Speaker 1: of things, no doubt. It's been a massive loss for labor. Yes,
29:04
Speaker 1: and I think that's obviously. I mean, a lot of
29:06
Speaker 1: the focus today is on just the sheer extent of
29:09
Speaker 1: the labor loss. I mean, in a hundred years, a
29:13
Speaker 1: party that's been in opposition for nine years has never
29:16
Speaker 1: lost seats. So even just that alone, that single achievement,
29:19
Speaker 1: let alone the fact that it is by you know,
29:22
Speaker 1: it is the worst result that that labor has achieved,
29:26
Speaker 1: even worse than than Michael Foote, who had previously been
29:29
Speaker 1: the sort of by word for for failure. Look, I
29:32
Speaker 1: think that I mean the issue for them, um, and
29:34
Speaker 1: I think they'll be debating this is, you know, why
29:37
Speaker 1: they lost, but also where to go from here. I
29:39
Speaker 1: think a lack of clarity and their message was probably
29:42
Speaker 1: more important even than the substance of their proposals. You
29:45
Speaker 1: know that that is why there will still be a
29:47
Speaker 1: debate about what the direction of their proposals should have been.
29:50
Speaker 1: They've been secured by geography. You know, we knew they
29:53
Speaker 1: had a problem that they weren't, if you like, extreme
29:56
Speaker 1: enough for many in the for those in Scotland, um.
30:00
Speaker 1: But they were trying to hold together remainders in the South,
30:03
Speaker 1: but also those Brexiteers in the North, and that has
30:05
Speaker 1: has skewed them and it worked much more into conservatives
30:08
Speaker 1: favor than maybe some people had thought. And then if
30:10
Speaker 1: you think on top of all that was the particularly
30:13
Speaker 1: unpopular leader. But it was the cocktail of all those things,
30:17
Speaker 1: which they're now going to have to unpick. I'm not
30:19
Speaker 1: sure you can unpick a cocktail, but they are now
30:22
Speaker 1: going to have to think about what the because I
30:24
Speaker 1: think it's not just as simple as this was a
30:26
Speaker 1: very left winger ject Maybe in the eighties you could
30:28
Speaker 1: have said, well, that was a very left wing manifesto,
30:31
Speaker 1: wasn't the party, country wasn't ready for it. It's a
30:34
Speaker 1: lot more complicated things going on, not least the way
30:36
Speaker 1: that Brexit has just driven the party into into shattered
30:40
Speaker 1: And what about some of these more radical proposals because
30:42
Speaker 1: during the election they polled quite well. Do we have
30:44
Speaker 1: to discount that now or is this an appetite for
30:46
Speaker 1: it maybe from a new labor leader. Yeah, I mean,
30:48
Speaker 1: that's what I think is interesting and maybe and I
30:50
Speaker 1: think one of the sort of dismay that you heard
30:53
Speaker 1: this morning, particularly from Northern MPs or x MPs, was
30:58
Speaker 1: that you heard that the Conservators had managed to win
31:01
Speaker 1: over these disgruntled working class voters in the North who
31:05
Speaker 1: have plenty of things to be disgruntled about with the
31:09
Speaker 1: word Brexit, but no explanation of how Brexit was going
31:13
Speaker 1: to help with any of the things that they're concerned about.
31:16
Speaker 1: Even when they talk the Conservatives talk about more spending,
31:19
Speaker 1: they're clearly going to have to deliver or more spending
31:21
Speaker 1: on the end in National Health Service, on infrastructure, all
31:24
Speaker 1: of these things. But the amounts are very small. I
31:26
Speaker 1: mean they have. We had a debate on this Economics
31:29
Speaker 1: podcast about with the head of the Institute Fiscal Studies
31:31
Speaker 1: about the substance of the fiscal proposals. And the funny
31:35
Speaker 1: thing is that the manifesto, the Conservative manifesto was had
31:39
Speaker 1: almost nothing in it apart from Brexit. Was a very
31:42
Speaker 1: modest increase in spending, both on the investment side and
31:45
Speaker 1: particularly on the current spending side. So how Boris is
31:49
Speaker 1: going to deliver to these new MPs is a real question.
31:52
Speaker 1: So what's the top line path of the economy from here?
31:55
Speaker 1: Because on one hand you've got Boris Johnson promising all
31:59
Speaker 1: of the spending, but then we just have Mandy Read
32:00
Speaker 1: from the Woman's a Quality Party talking about the economic
32:02
Speaker 1: hit for Brexit. How do those two things work together well?
32:05
Speaker 1: And that's once again so we kind of the days
32:06
Speaker 1: like this, we always end up we're talking very long term.
32:08
Speaker 1: You know, next election, what's going to happen, but also
32:10
Speaker 1: what's going to happen next week. Um, he clearly has
32:13
Speaker 1: Brexit to deal with. It won't be done in January.
32:16
Speaker 1: No one ever thought it would be. But it is
32:19
Speaker 1: true that you know, when I say how hard it
32:21
Speaker 1: will be for him to deliver to those working class
32:24
Speaker 1: voters while still maintaining kind of a traditional conservative focus.
32:28
Speaker 1: That's he's made it even harder for himself with the
32:31
Speaker 1: kind of Brexit deal that at least at the moment,
32:33
Speaker 1: seems to be on the cars. The deal he did
32:35
Speaker 1: with the European Union is a pretty heart is a
32:37
Speaker 1: harder form of Brexit, more damaging, particularly for the manufacturing
32:41
Speaker 1: sector potentially than Theresa May's deal was. The people who
32:46
Speaker 1: will be immediately hit by that will be people working
32:48
Speaker 1: in those factories, often around the Northeast, around exactly the
32:52
Speaker 1: places that have just voted Conservative. So that is something
32:55
Speaker 1: we will see how those two things measure up. But
32:57
Speaker 1: the bigger, the bigger majority of paper gives him capacity
33:01
Speaker 1: to be more flexible in doing that deal and maybe
33:03
Speaker 1: even taking longer to agree it with the European Union. Yeah, indeed,
33:07
Speaker 1: Mr Johnson of course thanked those people who might not
33:10
Speaker 1: traditionally vote Tory for their vote, sort of pledged to
33:14
Speaker 1: keep their trust as it were. Look when it comes
33:16
Speaker 1: to the markets, though, there seemed to be a great
33:18
Speaker 1: deal more panic about the Labor Party win even the Brexit.
33:23
Speaker 1: But do you think that overall, boys Johnson administration and
33:26
Speaker 1: the current Conservative Party is actually going to be pro business,
33:30
Speaker 1: because it has been quite a cautious welcome from some
33:33
Speaker 1: of the business lobbies this morning. I mean instead a
33:35
Speaker 1: bit of an imposible, but I think I think if
33:38
Speaker 1: the Corbin platform had had been slightly less comprehensive in
33:43
Speaker 1: its desire to reorganize the state, the role of the state,
33:47
Speaker 1: and and and to put taxes onto business, then business
33:50
Speaker 1: leaders would have had more of a challenge thinking who
33:52
Speaker 1: do I really want to win? I think going into
33:54
Speaker 1: this election there was not only the sort of extremity
33:59
Speaker 1: of some of the Corbin proposals, but also the fact
34:01
Speaker 1: that Labor was very unlikely to get a majority, So
34:04
Speaker 1: you're going to be looking at much more uncertainty even
34:06
Speaker 1: if you didn't have a Tory victory. Has led them
34:09
Speaker 1: being some would say, surprisingly positive about a definite Brexit,
34:13
Speaker 1: which may be quite a hard brexit under under president
34:16
Speaker 1: of president under Boris Johnson. But I do think when
34:21
Speaker 1: you look, you know a lot of the estimates before
34:24
Speaker 1: the election. Funnily enough, even though we knew there was
34:26
Speaker 1: a lot of city suspicion of Jeremy Corbyn actually saw
34:29
Speaker 1: the economy larger under Jeremy Corbyn in the next few
34:31
Speaker 1: years then under Boris Johnson, in part because of the
34:35
Speaker 1: extra spending that he was doing and because of the
34:37
Speaker 1: softer form of Brexit or indeed no Brexit not on
34:40
Speaker 1: the cards now. Some great analysis there, Thank you so much,
34:42
Speaker 1: Stephanie Flander's head of economics here at We're hanging in there,
34:47
Speaker 1: aren't we, Caroline, Just not long now and we can
34:48
Speaker 1: all go to sleep. After that huge victory for the
34:51
Speaker 1: Conservative Party, the biggest majority since nine seven, back in
34:54
Speaker 1: the days of Thatcher, we're now very much looking to
34:56
Speaker 1: a Brexit that will happen by January thirty one, and
34:59
Speaker 1: we've had European leader speaking as well. We heard from
35:02
Speaker 1: trancelor Angler Merkel over in Germany. The talks on the
35:04
Speaker 1: future relations are going to be complicated, she says, yeah,
35:07
Speaker 1: no price is there. The EU Council President Charl Michelle
35:11
Speaker 1: urging the UK Parliament to approve that Brexit pat quickly,
35:14
Speaker 1: no doubt about that now they have the numbers. He's
35:16
Speaker 1: also repeating the need for an EU level playing field
35:19
Speaker 1: with the UK. The question there is are they going
35:20
Speaker 1: to get that? Are they gonna be willing to give that.
35:22
Speaker 1: And then the EU Commissioned President la under Lyon says
35:25
Speaker 1: it expects the UK Parliament to ratify the Brexit agreement.
35:29
Speaker 1: She says the goal is close ties with the UK
35:32
Speaker 1: post brexit, and again it's a question of is this
35:34
Speaker 1: the sort of brexit the boris Johnson Watts. We just
35:36
Speaker 1: don't know. Yeah, absolutely. Merkel also saying that the UK
35:39
Speaker 1: will be a competitor at our front door, so that
35:42
Speaker 1: will raise some eyebrows, and La fonte Lion also citing
35:47
Speaker 1: the need for the UK not too dump, so no
35:50
Speaker 1: UK dumping after Brexit, so that again when it comes
35:54
Speaker 1: to the future relationship. So look, sounding just a little
35:58
Speaker 1: bit more tense when it comes to the UK EU relationship.
36:01
Speaker 1: You know, matters must be resolved swiftly, but potentially I
36:06
Speaker 1: sense these leaders very much looking to the UK being
36:09
Speaker 1: a competitor now with the EU, now that we have
36:12
Speaker 1: this decisive victory of the Conservative Party and Brexit likely
36:16
Speaker 1: to be done at the end of January. Alright, well,
36:18
Speaker 1: let's continue this conversation. It's fascinating. It's really the big
36:21
Speaker 1: issue here, what happens to Brexit? What form does it take?
36:24
Speaker 1: I'm going to throw over to Roger Hearing, Dan Westminster,
36:27
Speaker 1: you've got another guest joining us for this fascinating conversation. Roger,
36:30
Speaker 1: we have indeed sitting down with me here and what
36:32
Speaker 1: is I have to say getting more and more freezing
36:34
Speaker 1: by the moment is Alan Wager. It's got a very
36:36
Speaker 1: nice and warm hat and an Alan's research associate at
36:40
Speaker 1: UK you know, changing at Europe Group. And how should
36:43
Speaker 1: we describe the group? It's it's a think tank basically
36:45
Speaker 1: an academic think tanking from King's College, London, with we
36:48
Speaker 1: focus on Brexit and what's gonna happened with Brexit? Indeed, well, okay, good,
36:52
Speaker 1: good opening there. So how does this change things in
36:56
Speaker 1: terms of Britain's exit from the European Union. Well, it
36:58
Speaker 1: means we're definitely leaving on the thirty one of January.
37:01
Speaker 1: And you know we couldn't have said that this time
37:03
Speaker 1: yesterday that was the case. And in it gives Boris
37:06
Speaker 1: Johnson a great deal of room for maneuver. He's got
37:09
Speaker 1: three options now. Basically he can go for a w
37:12
Speaker 1: T oh no deal brexit on December twenties twenty. He
37:16
Speaker 1: can go for a sort of bare bones, stripped back
37:19
Speaker 1: free trade deal that suthing that can be sort that
37:21
Speaker 1: can be negotiated within eleven months, or we can try
37:23
Speaker 1: and extend the process. But he said he won't. He
37:25
Speaker 1: said he won't. But Boris Johnson is renowned for his
37:28
Speaker 1: flexibility as a as a politician and as a political
37:31
Speaker 1: operator our day, and maybe the fact that he has
37:34
Speaker 1: a majority we think of seventy six means he won't
37:37
Speaker 1: have to rely on the people who might be perhaps
37:39
Speaker 1: most hostile to that, the E r G, et cetera. Yeah,
37:42
Speaker 1: I think that the r G have have lost their
37:44
Speaker 1: influence as every other party has as the Democratic Union
37:46
Speaker 1: as party, not a party, a party of sorts for
37:51
Speaker 1: a while. But yeah, they they they they they've been
37:54
Speaker 1: absorbed into the into the into the Boris projects. So
37:56
Speaker 1: whenever he comes up with as a solution to Brexit,
38:00
Speaker 1: will have the vote of probably every single member of
38:03
Speaker 1: the Conservative Party in the House of Commons. And that's
38:05
Speaker 1: a completely different ball game to the sort of fractured
38:08
Speaker 1: politics we've had in the last three years. We're about
38:10
Speaker 1: to see a period of party discipline, homogeneous parties and
38:14
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be a lot easier for Broast john
38:16
Speaker 1: than those circumstances to you know, bend and and try
38:20
Speaker 1: and work out what's easiest than what's best for him
38:22
Speaker 1: to manage the economy. Probably so and early days, I know,
38:25
Speaker 1: but I'm going to put you on the spot. What
38:26
Speaker 1: do you reckon is going to be his route? Ah?
38:30
Speaker 1: I think you'll try and go down the route of
38:32
Speaker 1: of agreeing a deal within eleven months and then maybe
38:35
Speaker 1: try and extend towards the end of twenty and the
38:39
Speaker 1: last sort of ditch efforts, say the EU being difficult
38:42
Speaker 1: to negotiate with as a way of sort of justifying
38:45
Speaker 1: the extension of that transition period to sort of soften
38:47
Speaker 1: the brexit um the impact of Brexton in the short terms.
38:52
Speaker 1: I think you'll sort of try and use EU in
38:54
Speaker 1: transigence to as a as a method to to extend
38:57
Speaker 1: the transition period beyond December twenty twenty. So Angler Merkel
39:02
Speaker 1: just now within the last few minutes saying that the
39:04
Speaker 1: EU UK future relationship talks need to go very fast,
39:08
Speaker 1: but that the short time frame will be the biggest challenge.
39:10
Speaker 1: But actually both Merkel and Fronte Leine Vodeline sounding um
39:15
Speaker 1: a little bit tougher. I I suspect in what they're saying,
39:18
Speaker 1: you know, talking about the UK should not you know,
39:22
Speaker 1: pursue any dumping when it comes to brexit, so post
39:25
Speaker 1: to Brexit that there should be no well I'm assuming
39:28
Speaker 1: trade dumping of various kinds alluding to So it sounds
39:33
Speaker 1: like they're getting tougher, are they, Yeah, so that they'll
39:36
Speaker 1: sensence as an opportunity. The EU, just as in the
39:39
Speaker 1: last stage of the negotiations, has the power in the negotiations.
39:42
Speaker 1: That's the larger partner. It's flexible, it's it doesn't have
39:45
Speaker 1: this deadline, so it will it will use this, this
39:48
Speaker 1: self enforced deadline by the UK to to extract the
39:53
Speaker 1: best possible h deal with between the UK EU, and
39:57
Speaker 1: that will be a suboptimal deal for the UK. And
40:00
Speaker 1: that's just the matter of fact that it's exactly the
40:02
Speaker 1: same strategic problem that the uk UH faced when it
40:07
Speaker 1: when it when it triggered Article fifty had said it's
40:09
Speaker 1: of an artificial deadline and we ended up being um
40:12
Speaker 1: um losing out basically in the in the in the
40:15
Speaker 1: negotiations as a result. And that's what's gonna happen here probably.
40:18
Speaker 1: But alan the interesting point now is that we have
40:20
Speaker 1: a period during which nothing changes, essentially towards the end
40:23
Speaker 1: of this year, um in terms of relationship. We don't
40:26
Speaker 1: have a say in Europe, but we we essentially don't
40:29
Speaker 1: change the way we work. So the the economic downturn
40:33
Speaker 1: that could come from any of this, we're not going
40:35
Speaker 1: to feel that for a while either. Yes, we're gonna
40:37
Speaker 1: have a period probably of Boris Johnson maintaining even increasing
40:41
Speaker 1: his popularities on the vhone. Now, I mean he's going
40:44
Speaker 1: to leave the European Union on the thirty versa of January.
40:48
Speaker 1: That will obviously be a sort of triumphant moment for Johnson,
40:50
Speaker 1: and then there won't necessarily be that direct hit from
40:53
Speaker 1: Brexit on the economy. Felt for another, for for another,
40:57
Speaker 1: for for for another few years, and for another couple
40:59
Speaker 1: of years. If he tries to extend the transition period,
41:01
Speaker 1: it's win win for Johnson here. But alan his message
41:04
Speaker 1: politically was get Brexit done, and we know it's not
41:07
Speaker 1: gonna be done in October thirty one. These talks are
41:09
Speaker 1: going to go on as we As we've mentioned, are
41:11
Speaker 1: the public ready for that? Are they expecting it to
41:13
Speaker 1: be more straightforward? I mean, yeah, I work for a
41:17
Speaker 1: Brexit think Tank and we and we we we we
41:18
Speaker 1: said obviously, you know, Brexit is going to continue to
41:21
Speaker 1: be a key issue facing the UK government, is going
41:24
Speaker 1: to define what the government does. But for many voters,
41:28
Speaker 1: when they hear that we've left the European Union, it's
41:30
Speaker 1: possible at that point that they then zone out of
41:32
Speaker 1: the process and the politics of it sort of drains away.
41:35
Speaker 1: So we might we have a situation where well, that's
41:37
Speaker 1: perfectly right, and I think that's what that's what you know.
41:40
Speaker 1: I would argue that, you know, getting Brexit done isn't
41:42
Speaker 1: that simple. But perhaps if if Boris Johnson can sell
41:46
Speaker 1: it as we've left the European Union, everyone might focus
41:49
Speaker 1: away and they might move from page one of the
41:51
Speaker 1: news to to page or nine in the newspapers. And
41:53
Speaker 1: that's that's maybe what Boris Shohn's is hoping for. Okay,
41:56
Speaker 1: this from President Donald Trump this morning, Congratulations to boys
42:00
Speaker 1: Johnson on his great win. Written in the United States
42:02
Speaker 1: will now be free to strike a massive new trade
42:05
Speaker 1: deal after brexit. How possible is it that we can
42:08
Speaker 1: get a U K EU trade deal and a UK
42:12
Speaker 1: US trade deal well as as as as was pointing
42:16
Speaker 1: out in the Selection and As you know, Jeremy Corbyn
42:18
Speaker 1: tried to use the NHS as a way of sort
42:20
Speaker 1: of instrumentalizing this this this problem. These two trade deals
42:24
Speaker 1: are going to be in conflict. If you're in the
42:26
Speaker 1: orbit of the United States, that's a very different sort
42:29
Speaker 1: of economic model too. If you're in the orbit of
42:31
Speaker 1: the the European Union as a very different regulatory space.
42:35
Speaker 1: You know, we use the example of colorinated chicken, but
42:37
Speaker 1: it does work as an example. If you want to
42:39
Speaker 1: have a deal with the US, then you have the
42:41
Speaker 1: Colorina chicken. You wanna have a deal with the EU,
42:43
Speaker 1: you can't have a back door to the Colorina chicken.
42:45
Speaker 1: So it's a it's a real it's a real um,
42:48
Speaker 1: it's a real either or choice in a way unless
42:51
Speaker 1: you unless you yeah. And that's the that's the problem
42:54
Speaker 1: that's sort of facing Boris Johnson. Is it probably politically
42:57
Speaker 1: is he has promised this trade deal with the US
42:59
Speaker 1: and if that's and pay off and that can't come
43:01
Speaker 1: to fruition, then then maybe that will be something that
43:04
Speaker 1: can be pinned on him and alan what about the
43:07
Speaker 1: positions to negotiate. If you look at Europe, you've got
43:10
Speaker 1: this very public sprat spat between Macron and Merkel. Merkel's
43:13
Speaker 1: week at home, she's got the threat from the SPD
43:16
Speaker 1: and in the US you have an election coming up,
43:18
Speaker 1: so there's uncertainty on on both sides. Are there in
43:20
Speaker 1: a position to drive this hard to Boris Johnson, I
43:25
Speaker 1: think they will be in a position in the European
43:26
Speaker 1: Union because of the premier, these these these EU leaders
43:29
Speaker 1: have largely outsourced the negotiations to the Commission, who will
43:33
Speaker 1: have a lot more continuity within their political uh you
43:36
Speaker 1: know environment. I get the point you make about Merkel
43:39
Speaker 1: and uh and and Mcoron and that the tensions that
43:42
Speaker 1: are opening up there. I mean, you know, the US
43:44
Speaker 1: trade deal issue is just isn't going to be resolved
43:48
Speaker 1: and there isn't gonna be a deal with with Trump.
43:49
Speaker 1: So I guess it is in a way a bit
43:51
Speaker 1: slightly moot what what the outcome is in those in
43:53
Speaker 1: that in that in that, in that contest. But I
43:56
Speaker 1: think I think for the the EU UK trade trade talks,
43:58
Speaker 1: they will for the for the European Union, they'll they'll
44:01
Speaker 1: still have some continuity and mere Barnier is continuing as
44:04
Speaker 1: as head of those talks. So so I mean Alan
44:06
Speaker 1: is there not a possibility in the end that given
44:09
Speaker 1: as usually, that it might start going to being the
44:11
Speaker 1: back of the newspaper rather than the front. That the
44:13
Speaker 1: people over there behind us and the civil servants down
44:16
Speaker 1: the room might say, let's have a Brino, let's have
44:18
Speaker 1: a Brexit in name only. Let's actually change almost nothing,
44:22
Speaker 1: because frankly, that's what we all want. I don't think that, yeah, well,
44:25
Speaker 1: it would have a softer Brexit than perhaps Jacob rees
44:28
Speaker 1: mog once. But I'm not sure that there's going to
44:30
Speaker 1: be politically possible to stay in the Customers Union or
44:32
Speaker 1: the Single Market. So if you said three years ago,
44:35
Speaker 1: is that brexit in name only, it's definitely not. I mean,
44:37
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be uh, it's gonna be a pretty
44:40
Speaker 1: tough form of brexit for the Europe, for the UK economically. Yeah,
44:45
Speaker 1: I think we're in a situation where, uh, you know,
44:47
Speaker 1: it's it's whether or not there'll be there'll be a
44:49
Speaker 1: trade deal, it'll be a'll be a one of loose arrangement. Alright, Alan,
44:52
Speaker 1: thanks very much indeed for doing that, Alan Wager their
44:55
Speaker 1: research associated at UK in Enanging Europe. Caroline Roger, thank
45:00
Speaker 1: you so much. For joining us at live from Westminster
45:02
Speaker 1: this morning. Just a final thought then, as we wrap
45:05
Speaker 1: up this election special Roger, just looking ahead to the timetable. Now,
45:11
Speaker 1: when will we see Parliament actually sit now that we
45:13
Speaker 1: have the results? Well, there is an interesting question where
45:17
Speaker 1: I asked Tobias Ellwood and earlier this morning. He didn't know.
45:20
Speaker 1: But we do know that they want to get it
45:22
Speaker 1: through the second reading by Friday, so I guess that
45:26
Speaker 1: means possibly Monday morning. We'll we'll watch and see. But
45:28
Speaker 1: at the moment I think it's just too cold for
45:30
Speaker 1: anyone to come down here a little alone in Scotland.
45:32
Speaker 1: But we'll see. Perhaps they are all on the planes
45:34
Speaker 1: on the way back, all wrapped up and muffled up
45:36
Speaker 1: and ready to vote. So it's Christmas ruin then, Roger,
45:40
Speaker 1: for you and I possibly and for them too. Now
45:43
Speaker 1: I don't think i'll see over Christmas, but we'll see.
45:45
Speaker 1: We'll see great stuff. Roger hearing their live outside of Westminster.
45:50
Speaker 1: That's it for this hour of Bloomberg Westminster, our special
45:53
Speaker 1: election coverage. Really, this is a historic day for the
45:58
Speaker 1: Conservative Party, biggest win since Margaret Thatcher, a trouncing for
46:03
Speaker 1: the Labor Party, and it comes down yet again in
46:06
Speaker 1: this election to a two horse race. This as we
46:09
Speaker 1: looked to boys Johnson and who he's going to pick
46:10
Speaker 1: for the cabinet that will be next. Yes, so many issues,
46:13
Speaker 1: not at least to mention the future of Scotland, Northern
46:15
Speaker 1: Ireland and North of England. If you're listening to bloom
46:17
Speaker 1: Local Westminster, Bloomberg Westminster listen weekdays at noon on D
46:21
Speaker 1: A B digital radio in London