Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Elon Musk says Starship to orbit by end of year and FSD full release in USA

Transcript

Elon Musk says Starship to orbit by end of year and FSD full release in USA · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:00
  Elon Musk. Please do join me.
• 0:08
  Koda. Welcome here.
• 0:19
  Let me start. Tell us how you think about
• 0:22
  trust. Well, I believe in trust and
• 0:27
  transparency and the pursuit of Truth in general.
• 0:32
  But I mean first, let me just take a moment to say thank you
• 0:34
  for inviting me and it's an incredible honor to be here.
• 0:37
  So I love no way so and and I just wanted to to thank the
• 0:47
  leaders and the people of Norway for their long-standing support
• 0:51
  of electric vehicles and sustainable energy.
• 0:55
  And I just want you know the people of nowhere you know that
• 0:57
  hey you really made a difference and yeah so I went I thank you.
• 1:07
  Well thank you for joining us but I'm still going to come back
• 1:10
  to the question. Tell me tell me how do you think
• 1:13
  about trust? Well I think there's that that's
• 1:18
  what that that's really quite a philosophical question.
• 1:20
  It is and one could wax on at length about that, I guess.
• 1:29
  You know. It's over Twitter.
• 1:34
  I was told that's the one topic I'm not talk about so I'm going
• 1:37
  to avoid it. Well if they both start with
• 1:39
  it's here I suppose. Well, I mean, I do think that
• 1:43
  with respect to information generally, people want to know
• 1:48
  the information that they're receiving is accurate, that it
• 1:53
  is a representative of the full picture and they want to be able
• 1:59
  to believe what they read. And not feel that it's overly
• 2:03
  biased or at least understand the nature of the bias.
• 2:06
  So I think one of the key things to trust is transparency and
• 2:13
  people to really know you know if there's like a social media
• 2:18
  company or something to understand what the algorithm
• 2:20
  is. So to open source the algorithms
• 2:22
  of people can look at it and critique it and it's not a black
• 2:24
  box and then if there are any modifications done by people at
• 2:29
  that social media company that they're clear.
• 2:31
  Again, transparent. And so it's not hidden and And I
• 2:38
  believe, you know, I believe in the the sort of free flow of
• 2:40
  ideas and just generally erring on the side of free speech, with
• 2:47
  within the boundaries of the law, within the boundaries of
• 2:49
  the law is great place to start. You can't go sort of beyond that
• 2:55
  without being arrested. I think.
• 2:59
  Let's move on shall we? You've been a great disruptor of
• 3:04
  Technology technological models in energy and space Where is the
• 3:09
  unexplored area for disruption? Well, you know it's like the
• 3:16
  word disruption. I don't aim to disrupt for the
• 3:20
  sake of disrupting. You know it's more like there's
• 3:26
  thinking about what set of actions, what sort of actions
• 3:29
  are most likely to lead to a better future.
• 3:32
  And so You know, in order for one of the things obviously in
• 3:38
  order to for Humanity to have a compelling future of our
• 3:41
  civilization is that we must have a clear path to a
• 3:44
  sustainable energy future. That's one of the things that I
• 3:48
  think everyone, I think would agree with now.
• 3:52
  I actually am not someone who would tend to sort of demonize
• 3:56
  oil and gas to be clear. This is necessary right now,
• 3:59
  horses for civilization could not function.
• 4:02
  So I do think we actually need. And actually, at this time, I
• 4:05
  think we actually need Need more oil and gas, not less, but but
• 4:09
  simultaneously moving as fast as we can.
• 4:13
  To assist a noble energy economy, I thought there was the
• 4:17
  Prime Minister were just spot-on, you know?
• 4:21
  It's and I'm glad to hear that. There's a large effort for ocean
• 4:27
  wind is that that's that that's a massive untapped potential.
• 4:34
  I would say go even more. What the Prime Minister said,
• 4:37
  frankly, it's like, that's, you know, I mean, if you did 100 by
• 4:40
  100 array of 10 megawatts systems, you have 100 Giga watt
• 4:47
  capability. So that and then you do need to
• 4:52
  combine that with stationary storage battery packs to buffer
• 4:55
  the energy. Because sometimes the wind blows
• 4:58
  and sometimes it doesn't blow. What is it?
• 5:01
  Blows hard. And so so you need you need to
• 5:04
  buffer it with with battery packs.
• 5:06
  Stationary battery packs and Tesla and other companies are
• 5:08
  also making that so that the sort of the three pillars of a
• 5:12
  sustainable energy future our sustainable energy generation
• 5:16
  which is hydro geothermal wind solar.
• 5:20
  I'm also pro-nuclear. I've been I think it's we should
• 5:24
  really keep going with the nuclear plants.
• 5:25
  I know this may be an unpopular view in some quarters, but I
• 5:29
  think if you have a well designed to nuclear power plant,
• 5:32
  you should not shut it down. It's especially Right now.
• 5:39
  So but I try to say what I think is, you know, scientifically
• 5:44
  cogent, even if it is not popular so and it is.
• 5:50
  So the pillars of sustainable energy generation but then must
• 5:53
  also store the energy because many of the the two main sources
• 5:58
  of of sustainable energy, wind and solar are intermittent, wind
• 6:02
  doesn't always blow the sun, doesn't always shine.
• 6:04
  So you must buy for the he and in stationary battery packs and
• 6:08
  then the third element obviously is electric vehicles.
• 6:11
  So electric cars, trucks aircraft boats with the ironic
• 6:16
  exception of rockets but but I but we do have a plan for
• 6:23
  sustainably producing the rocket propellant which is actually a
• 6:27
  almost 80% of liquid oxygen so liquid oxygen you can get from
• 6:32
  Asia from the atmosphere and then We're going with methane
• 6:39
  fuel, which is 20% of the propellant but that you can make
• 6:44
  also sustainably long-term from CO2 and water H2O, which
• 6:50
  produces CH4 and O2. So that's the sort of
• 6:53
  sustainable long-term path for Rocket, propellant, generation,
• 6:55
  and that's how it would have to be done on Mars.
• 6:57
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• 9:06
  On backblaze.com, Ilan. So not electrifying quite yet.
• 9:15
  We are. We do actually have sustainable
• 9:17
  power generation for some of our propellant generation already
• 9:20
  but it's it's a small percentage.
• 9:22
  Now that will be a big percentage in the future.
• 9:24
  Yeah. So what do you, you know, you've
• 9:27
  got That's like the energy industry here, but that's
• 9:31
  probably an exaggeration. You've got a pretty pretty
• 9:34
  significant Set of the energy industry here.
• 9:41
  If you were to look ahead, 5 10, 15 years.
• 9:46
  What is the disruption going to look like in the energy
• 9:50
  industry? Well, I think we'll see
• 9:54
  tremendous change over the next 5, 10 and 15 years.
• 10:01
  I say like you said by by 2030, I would say probably half of all
• 10:06
  new cars made will be electric 2030 half of all new cars.
• 10:10
  My guess. Yeah.
• 10:12
  By 2035, it might be 80 percent or something like that.
• 10:19
  I think it could be even higher than those numbers but the the
• 10:24
  car industry is moving rapidly towards electric and you know
• 10:28
  went one country after another and one state after another is
• 10:32
  all making zero Mission mandates.
• 10:35
  California recently passed a zero-emission mandate on you
• 10:40
  cause sold in California. I think 2035 can only be zero
• 10:45
  emission. So UK is as well.
• 10:48
  Yeah, not exactly. So, it's clearly the people of
• 10:51
  Earth. Yeah.
• 10:53
  You'll both have decided, this is the way to go.
• 10:56
  And so, I think this is, so, we'll see quite a tremendous
• 10:59
  change in that regard. And if you look at the streets
• 11:03
  and know where you actually see an advanced version of that,
• 11:05
  because no way has it from the highest, we've gone to majority
• 11:11
  electric vehicles of new cars, sold out, which is, which is
• 11:15
  great again. Thank you.
• 11:20
  So yeah, so it's pretty cool. So if I pick up on that idea.
• 11:25
  So the future the biggest change.
• 11:27
  You see if the energy industry is electrification?
• 11:29
  Electric car vehicles. Light transport, maybe heavy
• 11:33
  transport. What does that mean about Supply
• 11:35
  chains? So if you kind of all that
• 11:38
  backwards, what is the supply chain?
• 11:40
  Give me. What are you worried about?
• 11:42
  If we're going to meet that Rice?
• 11:45
  Yeah. So the interesting thing is that
• 11:47
  said like what what is Is the what are the limiting factors
• 11:50
  governing the rate at which the world can transition to
• 11:53
  sustainable energy and I think it's the rate at which one can
• 11:57
  grow battery production, okay, so then if you say, well, what
• 12:01
  are the constituents in the battery in that they mined
• 12:05
  batteries? It's evolves, get lithium,
• 12:08
  you've got a cathode which is the main cathode materials are
• 12:14
  going to be a metal. And that's nickel manganese and
• 12:17
  iron. And on the outside is primarily
• 12:23
  carbon graphite and serves in a center, sequester's
• 12:28
  sequestering. A little bit of carbon in the
• 12:30
  battery and it with some silicon added for energy, density on the
• 12:36
  outside and then there's the electrolyte and whatnot.
• 12:38
  So it's and the main limitation is actually not that these
• 12:44
  metals are exceptionally rare. But that there's Tremendous
• 12:48
  amount of processing equipment to take the or, and turn it into
• 12:52
  battery grade materials. Because the battery grade
• 12:57
  entered in cathode have to be extremely pure in order for the
• 13:00
  battery to last for a long time. And so, it's sort of processing
• 13:05
  of those elements. And I'm sort of writing this
• 13:08
  sort of Master Plan part 3, which is what are the steps
• 13:11
  needed to scale, sustainable energy.
• 13:15
  And again, what are the limiting factors?
• 13:18
  How can we potentially accelerate these?
• 13:21
  So, hopefully finish that in a month or two.
• 13:25
  So do you want to give us a preview?
• 13:26
  What, you know, what are the what are the, you know, what are
• 13:28
  the gating functions? If you will that we need to get
• 13:31
  over. What are the what are the big
• 13:33
  steps? Well, the materials that I
• 13:36
  mentioned are really essential. It's generation, it's
• 13:41
  processing. Yes, but there's actually
• 13:44
  there's not a raw material constraints, so there's actually
• 13:47
  a tremendous amount Of lithium. Lithium is almost everywhere.
• 13:52
  It's one of the most common elements on Earth so as iron and
• 13:55
  so is carbon and that on the iron use usually combined
• 13:59
  phosphorus its iron phosphate, so that'll probably be the
• 14:05
  biggest chemistry that's used. So it's not so much the raw
• 14:09
  materials as it is converting raw materials into the highly
• 14:12
  purified form that can be used in batteries as so, that's a
• 14:16
  tremendous amount of of process. Thing needs to happen for that.
• 14:22
  A task that really at the sort of scale that is currently, you
• 14:27
  know, comparable to the world oil and gas industry.
• 14:29
  So it's a the scale is just tremendous.
• 14:31
  So this is all happening and it's happening fast.
• 14:34
  It's just a question of how, can we what can we do to potentially
• 14:37
  accelerate that and making go even faster?
• 14:40
  This is all happening. It's just a question of when are
• 14:42
  you going to give us the answer to that?
• 14:44
  What can we do to accelerate it to make it happen even faster?
• 14:47
  If we're going to be 50% new electric vehicle, All sold in.
• 14:53
  What eight years? You said.
• 14:56
  I think I think that's actually we're trending.
• 14:58
  Okay? Even if we even if we just keep
• 15:01
  doing the things we're currently doing.
• 15:03
  Okay. Yeah.
• 15:03
  So such as you don't, you don't see a limiting function at the
• 15:06
  moment. No, I don't see the many
• 15:08
  functions is really just how many years will it take us an
• 15:12
  audit actions? We can, what actions can we take
• 15:16
  to have it be faster and it's going to be increasing the rate
• 15:19
  at which we can convert the or into battery grade materials?
• 15:26
  That will set the rate at which we can build electric vehicles
• 15:29
  and stationary battery packs to capture solar and wind.
• 15:33
  Okay. So it's this old, you know,
• 15:35
  basically what I'm saying is is this is an optimistic and
• 15:39
  positive message, and I'm not suggesting at all complacency
• 15:44
  but just saying that things are moving in a good direction and
• 15:48
  but obviously if we can make them go even faster, that's
• 15:50
  better. And a lot of this happens in
• 15:54
  China right at the moment. Moment today.
• 15:57
  So yes, yes. So you said last year that you
• 16:03
  thought trust and China would improve prove post covet.
• 16:08
  So do you think that's happened? Do you see China as an
• 16:12
  investment opportunity today? Well, Tesla is actually
• 16:16
  investing in production in China.
• 16:20
  So we have a large Factory in Shanghai and we are continuing
• 16:24
  to expand output and invest in that factory.
• 16:27
  But we're also investing in Europe with our Factory just
• 16:30
  outside of Berlin and in the US without your factory, just
• 16:34
  outside of Austin. So and we hope to announce a
• 16:38
  location for another gigafactory perhaps later this year, so
• 16:43
  we're going as fast as we can. And I've always said that the I
• 16:46
  would say like when you'll get Tesla, the fundamental good
• 16:50
  Tesla does, I think some measured by profit but rather by
• 16:54
  how many years will Tesla have accelerated, the transition to
• 16:58
  sustainable energy, this is how I think what you're looking at.
• 17:02
  Yes, I think we have accelerated it to some degree already.
• 17:08
  You know. I think it wasn't for Tesla.
• 17:09
  The car industry would have transitioned two v's much later.
• 17:14
  So, exponential, curve, or straight line, it is somewhat of
• 17:18
  it is an exponential curve, yet, you know, you're making me use
• 17:21
  my chemistry. In my maths, we haven't done in
• 17:25
  a few decades. Most people don't know what an
• 17:27
  exponential curve means, but it's a, I think most people in
• 17:30
  this room and this room. Yes, yes, yes, yes.
• 17:34
  I thought so for the logarithmic curve, now that's up to mr.
• 17:43
  Can you do it? No, I think I think the the
• 17:48
  things are improving exponentially with respect to
• 17:51
  sustainable energy, so but it can go to make you go faster all
• 17:54
  the better. So, how do we go from
• 17:56
  exponential to logarithmic? Well, I know I think it will
• 17:59
  look on you. Thought about this, I know
• 18:00
  you've thought about this. Logarithmic is actually fast in
• 18:05
  the beginning, but slow at the end.
• 18:06
  So I agree. We actually what will actually
• 18:09
  happen is is is a transition from it'll follow as following
• 18:13
  an s-curve. So you have an Exponential
• 18:15
  increase, then linear. And then logarithmic and that's
• 18:18
  that's basically how any transition large industrial
• 18:21
  transition happens. I think I'm going to get off
• 18:24
  math now because I could get into trouble.
• 18:29
  What's your approach to risk? How would you talk about that?
• 18:35
  I'm back philosophy. I'm safer in philosophy.
• 18:39
  I think because I don't sort of like, you know, just arbitrarily
• 18:45
  secrecy. I think there's some things are
• 18:49
  risky. But if this, you know, if the
• 18:51
  stakes are important enough, then you take the risk, because,
• 19:01
  And today, the stakes are important enough.
• 19:03
  Yes. I mean the stakes are very
• 19:05
  extremely important. Very fundamental to the Future.
• 19:08
  Yes. Because you take, I'm guessing
• 19:13
  I'm just, you know, I don't know, everybody in this room,
• 19:14
  but my guess is that you take significantly more risk than
• 19:19
  possibly anybody in this room, but certainly more than 95% of
• 19:23
  the people in this room. What, what allows you to take
• 19:26
  those risks? Are you faster?
• 19:29
  You smarter, do you think differently?
• 19:32
  What do you do differently? That allows you to do something
• 19:35
  that most people here smart as they are, can't do. well, I
• 19:39
  think there's probably a lot of people in this room that do take
• 19:41
  a lot of risks, but we got a volunteer, but before you really
• 19:50
  like, no, I want to hear what Ilan has to say about how he
• 19:55
  takes risks. There were literally just try to
• 19:58
  use the scientific method frankly.
• 20:00
  And, you know, consider the, you know, what is the importance of
• 20:06
  the outcome and what, what is one risking into in order to
• 20:12
  achieve that outcome? And would like said if the
• 20:15
  outcome is important enough, even if the probability of
• 20:17
  success is low, when was I think still still do it in my view,
• 20:22
  you know, some things are very important and to in Have a good
• 20:27
  future. And if we don't do them, well,
• 20:30
  they're in big trouble. And so, and then how much of a
• 20:33
  risk really, is it? Because if we don't take those
• 20:35
  actions, we won't have a good future.
• 20:38
  And I think the riskiest thing would be no action.
• 20:42
  So it's almost as though, it's really not a risk, it's not a
• 20:44
  choice at all. Not really.
• 20:47
  Okay? I think it's wonderful that you
• 20:50
  can change the world because you really can change the world.
• 20:53
  And you have, you have the Ability to do what in many
• 20:59
  cases. Not even governments can do.
• 21:01
  I mean, I as I was doing a little bit of research for this
• 21:04
  panel, one of the data points that I saw as you were able to
• 21:10
  turn on, if you will the internet in Ukraine in just four
• 21:13
  hours. What what kind of responsibility
• 21:19
  do you feel as a corporate leader you have when you have
• 21:23
  that kind of power? How do you say but bit longer
• 21:29
  than four days? But it was it was a but also for
• 21:33
  four hours about four days, I think, but we did what we did,
• 21:38
  have some Guess that maybe there will be something happening in
• 21:43
  Ukraine and and so we did prepossession some startling
• 21:47
  terminals there, just in case. So that was helpful for the
• 21:56
  initial part of the invasion and then we accelerated delivery of
• 22:00
  a lot of terminals within a few days of the invasion taking
• 22:04
  place and the Ukrainian government tells me, it's been
• 22:08
  very helpful. So, No forethought is the
• 22:20
  answer, perhaps. I mean for Thornton and just
• 22:24
  moving quickly. Decisively.
• 22:27
  Yeah, so I do hope a piece on peace can be achieved in Ukraine
• 22:32
  and Russia which route you know if that's You know.
• 22:37
  Did I do something? Some short?
• 22:39
  Some thought to be should be given to you know, what's the
• 22:41
  end game there. And I think the end game will
• 22:45
  require some compromise on the part of both parties.
• 22:52
  You've said that what you're solving at, Tesla is an AI
• 22:55
  problem, not Transportation problem and you talk about the
• 22:59
  next big disruption being AI. What can a I do to help combat
• 23:06
  climate change? Particularly in this period?
• 23:09
  The short-term period, as we're transitioning?
• 23:13
  What Tesla's go from Pro when we started it, as always been to
• 23:17
  accelerate sustainability. So, that is still our primary
• 23:21
  goal by far. We have a secondary goal, which
• 23:25
  is to solve, at least real world intelligence as it applies to
• 23:29
  self driving cars. and, And then potentially, you know, with with
• 23:37
  humanoid robots. But, you know, it's And so, so
• 23:43
  Tessa is in part of AI company and increasingly in AI company
• 23:48
  but is still primarily a sustainable energy company.
• 23:52
  I think, Hey I, what will I do? I don't think we need AI to
• 24:00
  solve sustainability. That that is that is happening.
• 24:04
  It might help us accelerate it. but I think we should also be
• 24:10
  cautious about Ai and just make sure that as we develop AI that
• 24:14
  it is You know, doesn't get out of control and and that that the
• 24:20
  AI helps make the future better for Humanity.
• 24:24
  And that's something I know you working quite a lot on.
• 24:27
  I think we should be more worried about AI safety than we
• 24:30
  currently are, especially in the future was, are really going to
• 24:35
  be. And we're seeing a taste of that
• 24:36
  within Ukraine. Very much Drone Wars.
• 24:41
  Know if your drawings are better than their drones, then you
• 24:45
  weren't basically, it's what will happen.
• 24:49
  That's has, has it always been that's going to be?
• 24:52
  It hasn't been that but will it was a final question.
• 24:57
  We just got a minute, what keeps you up at night?
• 25:00
  And what are you doing about it? Would you sleep soundly every
• 25:08
  night? Well, there's the, the two main
• 25:12
  technical. I'm going to fundamentally a
• 25:13
  technologist, it's a kind of important or an engineer to.
• 25:16
  So, you know, sometimes people call me like a businessman, I
• 25:19
  guess I have to do business. You have to have a group of
• 25:22
  people, because I can't just do this in a garage by myself, but
• 25:25
  I'm fundamentally an engineer or technologist and so, the two,
• 25:30
  the two technologies I'm focused on trying to ideally, get down
• 25:35
  before the end of the year are getting our Starship to orbit.
• 25:40
  Which I think is important for expanding Consciousness beyond
• 25:44
  Earth and life beyond Earth. And and then having the Tesla
• 25:51
  cars be able to go do self-driving.
• 25:55
  So have self-driving in wide release at least in the US and
• 26:00
  and hopefully potentially in Europe depending on regulatory
• 26:03
  approval And and then having the Tesla cars be able to go do
• 25:52
  self-driving. So have self-driving in wide
• 25:58
  release at least in the US and and hopefully potentially in
• 26:02
  Europe depending on regulatory approval