Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bitcoin Crash Over?🔥Technical Analysis with The Trading Parrot

Transcript

Bitcoin Crash Over?🔥Technical Analysis with The Trading Parrot · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  The bitcoin market, of course, continues to struggle a little bit. We'll
• 0:10
  take a look at how this may play out in terms of bullish trends or
• 0:14
  bearish trends going forward. Will take a look at the eth also give you
• 0:17
  a handful of all coins. You guys don't want to miss it. My
• 0:19
  name is Paul Barron. We'll come back in the tech path. Before we
• 0:22
  get started, we do have a guest today, a trader that I think
• 0:24
  you guys might like, so we'll get in some Charts's gonna be fun.
• 0:27
  I do want to thank our sponsor, and that is I Trust Capital.
• 0:30
  If you guys are looking at long term holding of your Bitcoin, your ethereum,
• 0:33
  or your all coins and you want to put it in a CRYPTOIRA,
• 0:36
  you can do that. And of course the cool thing about crypto ra is
• 0:39
  there's a couple of things. One is deferred capital gains. That's one of
• 0:43
  the biggest and best benefits. But best of all, tax implications are really
• 0:47
  great, so make sure and consult with your own tax advisor before you get
• 0:51
  involved in these. But if you do want to get into an IRA,
• 0:53
  this is the way to do it. To get one started with I Trust
• 0:57
  Capital use our link. It's going to give you a two hundred dollar funding
• 1:00
  reward to get started or one hundred dollars funny reward. Man, we should
• 1:03
  get a two hundred dollar funny reward from them, but you can get a
• 1:06
  one hundred dollars funding reward by getting started, so check it out. Use
• 1:10
  our link down below. Let's go over to a couple of things today.
• 1:11
  I do want to welcome on the show Mariano, who is coming over from
• 1:15
  Trading Parrot. Great to have you on the show. Hey, thanks for
• 1:19
  heming. Okay, So, Mariana, I was looking at your website or
• 1:23
  I should say your YouTube channel. Yep, today's video was kind of interesting.
• 1:29
  I hope I'm wrong. Bitcoin must do this now. And for you
• 1:33
  guys, if you don't follow the Trading Parrot right now, just jump over
• 1:37
  to their channel take a look at what they're doing. He does a great
• 1:38
  job a handful of trading analysis. We're going to dive into some of that
• 1:44
  today, so it'll be fun. Marianna, let's get into the first thing,
• 1:48
  and I want to go over to a couple of tweets here. Just
• 1:49
  in general, a lot of pressure has been on bitcoin. Obviously, we
• 1:55
  know why. Germany, of course has been selling off. Most likely that
• 1:57
  will start to stall here in a bit when it does. What is your
• 2:01
  opinion currently with where bitcoin currently sets today? What are we holding it around
• 2:07
  fifty seven eight fifty eight thousand? What is your current position on bitcoin?
• 2:14
  Well, at the moment, we have the public in crypto twig there very
• 2:21
  divided, and I can see the people that are looking at daily are getting
• 2:24
  very bullish, and there are reasons to feel bullish because this could be a
• 2:30
  deviation and we could see some new heights coming in. But at the same
• 2:34
  time, the people that are looking at the weekly and the people that are
• 2:38
  looking at the past performance around the health and events are expecting a little bit
• 2:42
  more downside to come, especially considering all the selling pressure that we are currently
• 2:46
  seeing. Yeah, so we've seen a couple of traders out there the salaway
• 2:51
  is pushing down to fifty K, a handful of other traders that are vindicated
• 2:55
  that this is still not over. There's still a lot of macro pressure.
• 2:59
  I get that. I was also checking your Twitter account and you had a
• 3:02
  statement in here that I thought was interesting. When Germany finishes selling, imagine
• 3:07
  NASDA, the s and P five hundred could come down hard. Why do
• 3:13
  you think that we would see an S and P sell off based on Germany
• 3:16
  selling their bitcoin? What's your theory there? There's not really any connection.
• 3:23
  This is just a little bit of speculation from me, a little bit of
• 3:29
  crazy theories, because I'm seeing lots of perish divergences on the SMP. It's
• 3:35
  no doubt that the SMP at the moment the heavy weight, the heavy lifting
• 3:39
  is being driven by the larger cup stocks, and whenever they stop, the
• 3:46
  rest of the market is going to follow as well. There can be a
• 3:50
  big sell at the moment. Many indicators are looking extremely exhausted, not just
• 3:54
  on the daily, on the weekly and on the monthly, and there's no
• 3:59
  doubt that the stock market can continue. It's very difficult to time the precise
• 4:03
  top, but the risk is very heavy in my opinion. So, Okay,
• 4:09
  whenever I see big players like the owner the CEO of Amazon selling a
• 4:14
  billion, and at the same time I see countries like Germany, why are
• 4:17
  they selling their bitcoin? I start scratching my head as well. Yeah,
• 4:21
  well, I think some people would look at this as normal, you know,
• 4:25
  market participation in Nvidia obviously continues to kind of break all time highs records.
• 4:31
  What we'll see whether that is the one stock that continues to grind out
• 4:35
  for the S and P five hundred. But also you look at some of
• 4:39
  the macro positions right now, I mean I would say chair pal is still
• 4:42
  somewhat soft. Whether we get a rake cut in September or later in the
• 4:46
  year, it appears that we're going to see a rate cut coming in.
• 4:49
  Jobs seem to see seem to be softening as well. So the market condition
• 4:54
  positions and conditions seem to be aligning for maybe a bit of a recovery in
• 5:00
  the risk assets. I want to take a look at one of your charts
• 5:03
  and stay on the Bitcoin chart for a moment, and if you can give
• 5:09
  me a guidance under where Bitcoin is right now when you look at some of
• 5:13
  the technicals, and why you think that we may see a reversal or if
• 5:16
  we see a further push down. So to answer that question, I'm going
• 5:21
  to show you two charts that are complimentary. The first one that we are
• 5:26
  seeing right here is the bull market support band. Specifically today I focus on
• 5:32
  these descending broadening wedges that are fascinating. Is incredible how history doesn't look the
• 5:40
  same all the time, but it actually rhymes. You can see the half
• 5:44
  events in here, and we usually around each half in date we get one
• 5:48
  of these descending broadening witch, which is another name to say the last shakeout
• 5:55
  before the last push up. For example, here we get one of these
• 5:59
  patterns. And this looks very tiny, but this is seventy five percent drowed
• 6:03
  down in twenty thirteen, and here we have a forty percent rowdown and in
• 6:09
  COVID obviously another seventy percent with this descending broadening wage. And guess what,
• 6:14
  we are just repeating history. That's why I'm looking into this both as potential
• 6:19
  for further downside but as a huge opportunity at the same time, because what
• 6:25
  we could be doing is from here we could literally go to annual to high.
• 6:31
  But if that doesn't play out, we could get a see our rejection
• 6:34
  at around sixty five or slightly about sixty for another push to a new law.
• 6:42
  But those, in my eyes are opportunities that I will be taking if
• 6:48
  those play out in the short term. So with the divergence there, because
• 6:54
  you're comparing that to previous bull cycles, and when you look at previous bull
• 6:59
  cycles. Within that you said there was a seventy drawdown and forty drawdown,
• 7:02
  et cetera. Right now, what's our drawdown as to where we are right
• 7:06
  now, because really that we come off as almost sixty seven high. This
• 7:11
  market has changed significantly in terms of the nature of the market. Specifically,
• 7:18
  when we talk about drawdowns, the drawdowns are much lower than we used to
• 7:24
  have. There are barely twenty percents all the way to the top at seventy
• 7:29
  three, and what we are seeing now it's slightly more with a twenty five
• 7:32
  percent. So that's why I'm inclining to think that we might get lucky.
• 7:38
  We might see a rejection here from the bull market support plan, and maybe
• 7:42
  positively by the end of the summer, we get an opportunity to enter slightly
• 7:46
  lower. And I have to say, I'm not waiting. I'm not counting
• 7:51
  on that opportunity that might never come in. It's just that currently there's a
• 7:58
  high chance for us for that to play out, so possively I might be
• 8:03
  able to add to my stock of bitcoin a little bit more at the cheaper
• 8:07
  prices. One of the things that I want to highlight I sold all my
• 8:11
  bitcoin at seventy three point five k I tinned that to my posts on my
• 8:18
  Twitter account and people were wanting, you know, to kill me for selling
• 8:22
  all my bitcoin here. But that was a very good call. And I've
• 8:26
  been buying at sixty, at sixty two, at fifty eight, and now
• 8:31
  I'm looking for new opportunity to buy as well at fifty one if that plays
• 8:35
  out. Okay, all right, so fifty one being the range right there.
• 8:39
  I mean, we've had some recent entries on bitcoin and similar when we
• 8:45
  look at some other things RSIs or another factor. This was a tweet that
• 8:48
  you had that I thought was interesting because there was a couple of charts within
• 8:52
  it and you were talking about the RSI bullish cross that had provided some new
• 8:56
  entries possibility, and further on down in here you look at this in terms
• 9:01
  of our size, and I don't want to get into super technical, but
• 9:05
  isn't this a bullish pattern that comes out often at the bottom of these kinds
• 9:09
  of cycles. Is this something that you've recognized and said, hey, this
• 9:13
  is working just like what we've seen in the past, or is there something
• 9:16
  different about this one? Absolutely so, here we have the FTX collapse since
• 9:22
  then we have for example here a bullish cross, another bullish cross here,
• 9:26
  this one here as well. This was the most impulsive one with seventy seven
• 9:31
  percent to the upside, and then here halfway through, we have one that
• 9:35
  gave very little run up with just as seven percent after that. And that's
• 9:41
  why we're saying it's a fake out, because seven percent is nothing compared with
• 9:46
  these moves of seventy percent. And here we have this promising in development bullish
• 9:52
  cross. Because it's a weekly timeframe. We are halfway in the week,
• 9:56
  and I'm tended to say that this might be it, but just because we
• 10:03
  are bouncing as well. If we look at the point of view of the
• 10:07
  actual art side, not the stochastic one, we are at levels very similar
• 10:13
  to what we have in September. In September, this is the full bull
• 10:18
  market structure highlighted here from the actual art side, you can see how many
• 10:24
  times we bounce from this level. Unfortunately, here in June we broke below
• 10:30
  and we started being in the area that we shouldn't be. That this means
• 10:33
  that we have lost momentum. On the weekly we have a head and shoulders
• 10:37
  with a target here as well, so we are in the area of having
• 10:41
  lost momentum on the weekly. On the daily, we are pushing higher.
• 10:46
  Things are looking very promising, and that's why now it becomes a little bit
• 10:50
  of an arm wrestling between the art side on the weekly versus what's going on
• 10:58
  on the daily. Yeah, I like that because there are some interesting comparisons
• 11:01
  there with these RSIs and it is It's an area that we've had some traders
• 11:05
  identified before as well. You had a tweet talking about hash ribbons that also
• 11:11
  looked wide open, and explain to me why this particular scenario could play out
• 11:18
  in the same Are these all indicators right now that you feel we're going to
• 11:22
  see maybe a little bit more softening in the market, mainly because of the
• 11:26
  sell offs that we're seeing from Nation States, you know obviously with Germany,
• 11:30
  Malcox, et cetera. And then all of these are pointing to upside.
• 11:35
  So you feel like this is a very big bullish indicator when you look at
• 11:39
  all three. And actually the one I focused the most when it comes to
• 11:46
  minors capitulation on chain data is the hash ribbons. This is a very famous
• 11:52
  indicator that has been in the market since the early days of bitcoin and The
• 11:58
  most important thing about the hash rivens is hit the accuracy that it offers.
• 12:03
  It's pretty much ninety nine percent in the sense that it first highlights when the
• 12:09
  miners are capitulating, and then you see the capitulation the moment where they're suffering
• 12:16
  the most, and then you get a signal, which is the buy.
• 12:18
  After the buy, typically you see either a small drawdown or a period of
• 12:24
  rowdown. That's the lowest likely scenario, but most of the time you see
• 12:30
  immediately some relief or big upside, especially when you are in a bull market.
• 12:35
  Okay, all right, well, I think it makes sense with the
• 12:39
  indicators that we've seen, and of course this kind of plays into more of
• 12:43
  the supply side. Obviously that'll weigh out based on what we're going to say
• 12:48
  with inflows on ETFs as well as how some of these nation states continue to
• 12:52
  dispose of their baitcoin. All right, so I want to jump over to
• 12:56
  ethereum now, and because with IF many people would of consider because there's a
• 13:01
  lot of people that are trying to weigh out that position right now, much
• 13:03
  like you. Maybe they exited bitcoin in the sixty eight to seventy three range
• 13:07
  and are now in a position to reposition in another asset or back into bitcoin.
• 13:13
  And if you look at ethereum and some of the charts that are out
• 13:16
  there, this is one that I thought was intriguing. This is the Bitcoin
• 13:20
  chart pre ETF and then the Ether chart also pre ETF, so you have
• 13:28
  those kind of pink ranges right there, and then the potential trajectory for ethereum.
• 13:35
  This particular trader is calling it for up around seventy five hundred. That's
• 13:37
  a little crazy, but hey, could happen. Well, you never know
• 13:41
  what is your position on ethereum right now based on what you're seeing with possibly
• 13:46
  pent up buying for the ETFs. Yes, for athidium. I would like
• 13:52
  to show you this chart on the weekly of the Ethidium PTC pair that I've
• 13:58
  been for a long time in my channel since August twenty twenty second. We
• 14:03
  started building this trend line as our resistance applied to the actual SI and we
• 14:09
  were patiently waiting for the breakout, which happened in January. In January we
• 14:16
  saw this breakout. We have two retests here and right now what I can
• 14:20
  see is that we are building a channel instead of going down like all this
• 14:24
  area here we are now building a channel to the upside, whereas the price
• 14:30
  hasn't yet been able to catch up with this, so the price doesn't look
• 14:35
  like a proper breakout. We saw this large candle here at the top,
• 14:39
  but the price is not really following the trajectory that everybody is expecting yet.
• 14:46
  But I think the other side, which is momentum, precedes what the price
• 14:50
  does, and it is kind of like having a look into the future,
• 14:56
  and we can see this is diver and is pushing to high levels. This
• 15:01
  coincidentally started with the expectation of the ATF, then with the approval, and
• 15:07
  now continues going higher. As we are in the final weeks of this itf
• 15:13
  going live. So I think this is extremely promising, and it's not just
• 15:18
  promising for Ethdeom, but also for all the old coins. And if you
• 15:22
  allow me to show me show you one more chart. This is Evidium on
• 15:26
  the daily, and this is my prefer setup for a breakout on the daily,
• 15:31
  seeing this resistance on the other side and right now today, interestingly,
• 15:37
  right now we are seeing that this is approaching about the trend. I don't
• 15:41
  use this as the single indicator to just enter in a trade. Just if
• 15:46
  people haven't seen my channel and you might be thinking I just use a site
• 15:50
  to enter a deal. I use it in confluence with many other aspects like
• 15:56
  socials, the delta between longs and show, or the cross fee ratio,
• 16:02
  many more indicators that at the moment are all aligning for a potential breakout on
• 16:07
  the daily. So yep, so that's very interesting at the moment, and
• 16:11
  it is seeing conference with what's going on with the fundamentals as well. Yeah,
• 16:15
  I think you look at availability in terms of supply. There's a couple
• 16:19
  of things you could look at here. In comparison to say bitcoin right now,
• 16:23
  about ten percent of total eath supply is currently on exchanges, so that's
• 16:27
  fairly low in comparison to Bitcoin supply on exchanges right now about fifteen percent.
• 16:33
  So ETH has been falling in terms of availability, So we could see a
• 16:37
  little bit of pressure here on availability of the asset should a breakout take off,
• 16:44
  And of course that would only mean more upside for a particular breakout on
• 16:49
  big or excuse me, on ethereum. So that's a good one, I
• 16:52
  think overall, if you were playing both of these charts, because this is
• 16:56
  another one, this is the performance comparison. Eth essentially has been performed almost
• 17:00
  equivalent with that of bitcoin. And this is on the year to day with
• 17:06
  exception Bitcoin has had a big run up off of the ETF. It has
• 17:11
  not. So could this be the era of ethereum going forward? What your
• 17:17
  thoughts? I think so, And at the moment, I think ethidium has
• 17:22
  been It had a little bit of a run actually, but it's sold out
• 17:27
  with the correction of bitcoin. So usually bitcoin needs to respect the king.
• 17:33
  The king is bitcoin. Bitcoin is coming down strong then even if there's an
• 17:38
  ETF and the price of ethidium was very resilient, but at some point it
• 17:44
  had to give up and it came back to where it came from. But
• 17:48
  I think the momentum on ethidium is telling us something. It's telling us that
• 17:52
  we are about to go into that breakout. And I usually pay a lot
• 17:56
  of attention to that breakout because that gives us the last cherry on top of
• 18:00
  the cake, right, the best golden deal. Yeah, well, because
• 18:04
  that's everybody's kind of playing this right now as to where you know, where
• 18:08
  in what assets should you play in terms of best gains for return on money?
• 18:12
  Uh, And you know this is in reference to I won't call it
• 18:17
  trading because this is more most of our audience are more longer term investors.
• 18:21
  I'm not saying they're setting on Ether Bitcoin for a decade or two decades.
• 18:25
  They're looking at maybe a twelve month to eighteen month cycle within an investment period,
• 18:30
  and then they're moving assets around. They go into other asset markets during
• 18:33
  the you know, the bear market, and then they start buying back in
• 18:37
  and you know, the cycle repeats itself. If you look at that kind
• 18:41
  of investment structure and you compare this to some of the other all coins that
• 18:45
  are out there, Let's say Solana. You know you've got ethan Solana right
• 18:48
  now, because there's a lot of people are looking at this eth Soul buy
• 18:52
  both look at Soul as a potential opportunity. How would you play this right
• 18:57
  now between a theory and or a Salana investment today? Based on this chart,
• 19:07
  Solana at the moment is also very promising because there's the expectation of a
• 19:11
  potential ETF coming. So that is exactly the place where we want to be.
• 19:17
  We see a lot of activity in Solana in the blockchain as well,
• 19:22
  and from the point of view of the technicals. It's also incredible how resilient
• 19:26
  it has been during this recent cell of bitcoins. So at the moment,
• 19:30
  I'm a holder of Solana and I'm holding strong. I'm looking to add more.
• 19:36
  I had a few very good entries when there was the big crash to
• 19:40
  fifty six, and I'm planning to continue holding at least until we see that
• 19:47
  breakout on ahidium. Usually the flow of money goes first from BTC into top
• 19:52
  market cup, and then it starts flowing into lower cups little by little,
• 19:57
  as long as BDC remains helpholding. If it's If you like this video,
• 20:03
  make sure and like and subscribe to the channel and check out the next video
• 20:07
  right here. M