Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The Only Investing Strategy You Need Right Now + Stock Market News 11 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The Only Investing Strategy You Need Right Now + Stock Market News 11 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream on a day where the morning looks quiet and calm, the market looking all right, but underneath it all is something brewing that at present, really only Wall Street insiders understand.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: By the end of this video, you'll understand it too, and I'll tell you actually the smart thing to do today as well, the smart strategy, and I'm never going to flip my screen and share with you the list of things that you will learn in the next couple of minutes.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: We start off with the latest news from what Trump just did and who he just threatened, what China just did, what the UK just stopped, which is pretty extraordinary.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: That isn't headline news, by the way.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: They're trying to cover that up in mainstream media.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I'll give you a little example of why what is happening here is so serious.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: And then we look at why the gold rally is actually bad news.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: The dollar is falling and the real question is will there be a bailout 2020 style?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: And really why the very few people understand what's actually going on here.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: And then I'll give you the number one investment strategy for right now, and we'll also look at one of the most popular tech stocks out there and so on Balanji and Zofia and Nvidia and Tesla and everything else.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: So if that sounds like something that could be very useful for you, then put a U for useful in the chat and therefore I know that this is something that you might want to hear more about.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: We are, of course, joined by my chief of staff, the wisdom behind it, all this gentleman here.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: He's just rolled in the mud.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: He was pretty calm, considering what's going on in the markets, aren't you, winston?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Pretty calm.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: We're moving a little bit over here, so we're all going to die.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so the love is actually true.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: That is very, very true.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: You're going to die, I'm going to die, winston's going to die.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Thanks for the use there, guys.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: So Trump has just threatened Mexico on a day where everything would be like sort of happy and calm over water rights apparently there's a 1944 water treaty, so that could get more interesting over there putting a bit more pressure on the sombrero Canadians.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: And then China said they are increasing retaliatory tariffs to the retaliatory tariffs.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: To the retaliatory tariffs you get the idea beginning from tomorrow to 125%, which is almost as much as the US tariff on China, which is 145%.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: But they also said no more after this.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: They said this is getting silly and we will not be raising these tariffs again because no one's going to buy US goods anyway.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter anymore, which is perhaps sort of an end to it.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: So even if the Donald comes out and doubles the tariffs again, china said they're not going to do anything further, which at least might draw a line under that story a little bit.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So Mohamed El-Erian, who you see on Bloomberg and stuff quite a bit reasonably smart chap, he said this and this is kind of what I thought why is this not headline news?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: He said in the UK there is a reported suspension by the Bank of England, which is their Fed equivalent, of its sale of long dated bonds.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So hang on, the UK government has stopped selling its bonds because there is nobody buying bonds right now.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: That's pretty serious when a major first world country can't issue the bonds it wants to issue because the bond market is frozen, literally, which is precisely what happened, by the way, in 2020.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: It wasn't the stock market first, no, no, 2020, you know the COVID thingy it was the bond market that froze.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: That's really what spooked everybody.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: That's really what caused a lot of the crash.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So Bill the acumen, he is a long Nike, poor chap.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: But what really I find extraordinary here and I've been talking about this bond market trade for the last couple of days now I made a few videos on it at least one.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: I think there's one more coming out later today so you understand this thing.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: It's called the basis trade and it's what broke the market in 2020 and it's what's breaking the market right now.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Now, I thought the hedge funds were using leverage.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I thought they were using like 10 to 20 times leverage, which is already crazy, right?
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So it means a 5% move against you at 20 times leverage means you are wiped out.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: No more money left.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Bill Ackman says there are basically hedge funds operating with 100 to 1 leverage 100 to 1.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: That means if the trade goes 1% against you, you're gone, you're toast, you're finished, you're bankrupt, you're out of business, right?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: No more money left, not one cent, which is just insanity.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And it's, of course, what's creating this panic.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Now you might think, oh, that'll only be a small thing.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: You know it's not a major thing.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Well, in 2020, this trade was $500 billion.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: In 2025, 2025, this trade is $1,500 billion, aka $1.5 trillion.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So it's three times bigger than it was then.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: The COVID dip was pretty serious, right.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So this is a serious thing, and I'm not trying to scare anyone, I'm just saying this is what's happening, and so far, the Fed hasn't really reacted to it so far, and Trump has sort of backpedaled a little bit on the tariffs because of it, but he hasn't really done all that much on it either.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: So this is still out there.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: We need to understand that.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So that's also, by the way, why gold is up.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: So, if you own gold, brilliant, right, all time high, which, of course, is lovely if you have gold.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: What's going on with the pen here, where gold sits right now?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: And it's also why the dollar is down, because a lot of people are getting this and the dollar is trading here, which is literally the low of 2023.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: When, yeah, not a good thing.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So what does this all mean?
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Well, there's one thing that I'd urge you to watch, and it's a boring thing to look at, but it's the 10-year treasury yield, and you can just Google that and, as you can see, it's going only in one direction, right, you can see, like a boy band, it's going only up, and that's a bad thing.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: That shouldn't be happening right now.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: The opposite should happen, and this is happening because the bond market is frozen essentially, which is frozen essentially, which is really, really, really not a good thing.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: So that's the real risk that we're facing here.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: So then you're going to ask yourself, well, how can I take advantage of that risk, right?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: How can I buy some stuff cheap?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Is this the time to buy it?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And so on.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And, yes, there is an opportunity out there.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: That's probably the greatest opportunity we've had since at least 2020.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Opportunity out there, that's probably the greatest opportunity we've had since at least 2020.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: And most people are going to miss it.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Most people are also having a pretty tough time in this market, right?
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Anybody honestly having a bit of a tough time.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: If you're having a bit of a tough time, put a T in the chat and I'll see you having a bit of a tough time, which would make you very normal.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: By the way, there's no shame in it, because we haven't been taught any exit rules, risk rules.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: We don't know how to pick great stocks.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: We don't know if what we own is really good or bad.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Right, that's what most people do.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: So that's why I'm doing this for you on tomorrow.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: So tomorrow, 11am Eastern Time, so a little bit later than this time I'm going to and thanks guys for being honest there Matt and Tan Boon Kang there, and everybody there with your teas.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a tough time and that makes you human.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So my goal for you tomorrow is, if you join me, we'll run a proper educational session.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you how to pick great long-term stocks so you come out of this, you can retire sooner, you can retire better, your portfolio will be better and safer and really, how do we bounce back from the crash?
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Right, that's what it's all about, and I just saw this in our community today, which I'm incredibly always touched by Elizabeth.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: She says I'm incredibly grateful.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: That's not what I meant, but she says it has truly transformed my investing approach, having joined us, and I've shifted from being driven by FOMO to becoming a smarter, more rational investor.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Once again, thank you for caring.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: And this is really it.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: You can transform your investment approach in a couple of days, and she's doing that by having guidance, and she's doing that by knowing the rules that the most successful investors out there use, and it takes like an hour a week or something to learn it.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: And if you think about how much time you spend earning that money, the hour a week is probably a pretty good investment in your future and your peace and your retirement and so on.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So if you want to be like Elizabeth, come and join me tomorrow.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: And so many of you have already signed up, which is amazing.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Like, look at that 3,600 of you have signed up, which is super cool.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: So that room now has a 5,000 people limit, which I think is as big as we can go.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: So don't be late.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: And because I think we're probably going to hit that, so grab yourself a seat.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Link is down below.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I'd also put it for you in the live chat here and I'll pin it to the chat as well, so it's easy for you to find to the chat as well.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So it's easy for you to find.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: So, brigitte, thanks for the thumbs up.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Love that All right?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So the central banks, in my opinion, are going to step in and, in my humble opinion, they're going to bail out the bond market, which essentially means bail out the billionaire hedge fund guys, which, of course, isn't going to be very popular.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So they're going to try and do it in a way that we don't really notice.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: So the first mover appears to be the European Central Bank Lagarde, in all her charm, says the ECB, the European Central Bank, is ready to use instruments it has if needed.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: The Fed yesterday said we are watching the bond market literally minute by minute.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So they're literally sitting there going.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We've got the money printer and the bazooka ready.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: If required, we will step in and we'll start buying bonds.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: That's how they print money, by the way they buy bonds.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: That's how they print money, by the way they buy bonds.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: That's what puts money into the economy.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: So when that happens and if that happens, two things might happen.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: One, the market might freak out and we might go a lot lower.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: And then, if they do it on a scale, the market's going to rebound like a rubber band, because money printing of course brings liquidity into the system.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: The money will inevitably end up in assets and therefore in stocks and then in everything else.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see if that happens.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: When that happens now, what's the downside?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: If they intervene and if they print money again?
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to get more inflation, right?
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Is that a bad thing?
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Well, I think there are two ways of looking at this whole madness that we are presently in.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Right, felix, do you own an aeroplane?
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, I don't own an aeroplane.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's a very smart thing to own.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, unless you really fly a lot, you can charter those things you know thing to own.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, unless you really fly a lot, you can charge all those things you know.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: But anyway, moving off topic here, trump and his team are either clueless and mad and insane or they're planning this to get the Fed to print money again.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Right, and which way you think the truth probably depends on your political views and I don't really care.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Either way, it doesn't really matter.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: We just have to deal with the facts that they give us.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter the why, but inflation does one thing.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: What does it do?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: It reduces the value of money right Now.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Is that a bad thing?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Well, for most of us yes, it's most of us a bad thing.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: If you have some money, it's a bad thing.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: But what if you had a lot of debt?
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: What if you had a huge amount of debt, say 35 trillion thereabouts?
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Well, it would also reduce the value of that debt.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So, generally speaking, countries that have very high debt actually like inflation, because it's really the only way to get out of it.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: You can inflate away the debt.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Very high debt, actually like inflation, because it's really the only way to get out of it.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: You can inflate away the debt.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: So higher inflation is probably actually what Trump and co want.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Which is, if they're really smart, maybe they're arranging this whole thing to force the Fed's hand, or it's a random byproduct.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Either way, it's going to keep it interesting.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Random byproduct.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Either way, it's going to keep it interesting, right?
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Stop distracting, felix.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Aeroplanes, aeroplanes.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Do you own a cruise liner?
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: No, no, I don't own a cruise liner either.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: A yacht?
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: No, I think, generally speaking, people who buy yachts tend to go out of business.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I sort of get the feeling.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: So I think it's one of those things.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Tend to go out of business, I sort of get the feeling.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: So I think it's one of those things.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: It's probably not a great thing to do and plus, I enjoy being on a boat for about three hours and then I crave land, so I don't think it's really made for me.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Now, this is a funny chart.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: We don't normally talk about futures, do we?
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: But futures, essentially, it's just like the stock market.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: They trade a little bit longer.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: It's mostly professionals that trade them, and there is this thing as in liquidity means how many people are buying and selling right, and when there are very few buyers, it's very, very hard to sell, and that's what's happening right now.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: So we are at these really, really extraordinarily historic lows of liquidity right now and that just means one little spark moves the market massively and that's why you're seeing these 5% 10% moves.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Margin calls also have something to do with that, but this is kind of concerning, and you're seeing the same in the bond market, which is why the Fed is watching it.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: So something could break here very, very, very easily.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: That's essentially what I'm saying, right.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So at the end of my list, yes, it is Brilliant.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: So the first thing is come and join me tomorrow, learn what to actually pick.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: But I did promise you two other things, didn't I?
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I promised you well, what's the strategy we take right now?
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Strategy, and I put a note again into the community for my mentees this morning.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: So the first thing is watch this.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: It's the fear index.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: It's called VIX.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: If that's going up and you can see it's at 45 almost again, that's going up.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Panic, no, don't panic, but it's a saying the market is very fearful and the market worries that it's going to get a lot, lot worse.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Someone's going to get a boat Brilliant, and, yes, some of you guys.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Actually, I actually have two students who live on boats in the Caribbean, which is just bizarre and also amazing.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: So how many chance do I study every day?
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Not very many, not very many.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I normally, on Saturdays, go through quite a quite a few, uh, but during the week I normally just look at a couple handful, probably, and then I used to go through a lot.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: But we build a lot of that automation into trade vision, which is what I'm using here.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Right, this is what trade vision is, so it scans about 3,000, 4,000 stocks every day.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: So I don't have to.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So my weekend job is a lot easier.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get that, get yourself your paws on that.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: So you want to see this move back down towards the 20 mark or below.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: That's kind of when the crazy is over.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: That would be the first thing that I would look at.