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Grains: 2025 Crop Tour Day 2 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the 2025 Professional Egg Marketing Crop Tour brought to you by Green Key Egg.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_01: Have you ever wanted more out of your crop?
• 0:09
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• 0:12
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• 0:19
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• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Reach out to NOAA at 712-441-5446.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: Day two of the 2025 crop tour has been concluded.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: We made five stops rounding through western Iowa into northern and eastern Missouri and then back through the middle, uh kind of central part of uh Illinois for the most part, they're kind of the western side.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: We ended up uh ending the night here.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: McLean was our last stop.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: So uh just wanted to start with a little bit of price action on the overnight here, Jaden.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we made five stops tonight, but it doesn't look like the corn market's making that as well, is it?
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: No, Mike.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: So we've got the corn market closed at 407 today on the December corn.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: That was lower than the prior uh low that we had put in there.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: And uh now on the overnight, Jayden, what are we down to on that overnight there?
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we're sitting at 404 right now and down three cents, you know, about three cents below the old low.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so it's a pretty weak price action here, and uh continuing towards that four dollar mark, it looks like we're probably gonna try to uh dip below that four dollar mark, anyways.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: In other news, Stone X did come out with a massive yield today that they expected.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh 188 and change there, it looked like Jaden.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: Mainly out of their yield estimates, it looked like Ohio and Indiana, you would say.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: They kind of blew the doors off of everybody else's yields with those two, didn't they?
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it was kind of surprising, especially with Ohio's start they had in terms of planting and getting the crop in.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of surprising they gave that big of a yield to Ohio.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, very much so.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: So uh with those two states being well above the rest of the states so far, pretty close on what we had for Nebraska.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: For example, pretty close on Missouri as well.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, none of the other states really blew the doors off real bad, it seemed like.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: So a little bit of price action there that we wanted to mention on the overnight here, just putting in those new lows on the corn market.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: But let's go to our first stop today.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, Ottoman Iowa, customer stop there.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we uh saw some really good crops, not a lot of disease issues right there in that part of the world yet.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: Um, yeah, fungicide heavily uh applicated there.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: Very, very good crop ground anywhere, you know, in the mid-250s type area historically for that area.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what did you see out of that first stop today in that area?
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, uh this county set a record last year, and based on kind of what we saw, there's really no reason that they they couldn't make a new record this year.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, last year they said when they did receive their rainfalls, they received them all in one time, and you said this year they're kind of receiving them in you know spread out patterns, you know, inch there, inch, inch here, inch there.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's just it's just better rainfall timing.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: And and they shut off in August, just like the kind of the rest of us did.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: They're in the Western Corn Belt.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_01: The rain just stopped August 1st.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: So a much more consistent, much more uh friendly rainfall pattern so far this year without many troubles.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: They planted early as well.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh a bigger day corn.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: It looked like it, everything went fine, no other problems.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think our yield estimates were pulling 240 plus there for the most part, so should be able to take out uh that record in Western Iowa at least.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: As we went into our Missouri stops, we're gonna give you the Missouri final yield here as well.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, no real problem.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what did you see in general?
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: Were the samples as good as last year or not quite?
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Well, uh the samples are pretty similar to last year.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um to take note here though, the the corn appeared to be farther along in the in this Missouri area.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: We started to see some first dented corn on on our crop tour, but really the conditions look excellent, really no real drought concerns.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean the whole state of Missouri on the drought map is white, so so they should be in good shape moving forward, and we didn't really see any tip back in Missouri or anything like that.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, not too bad out of Missouri again.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I know some local farmers there.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the county we actually stopped in was where uh Spore Family Farms was there, Gavin Spores, uh very close to those guys, and just uh from what they had posted, really good corn, maybe not as good as last year, but uh from what we had, anyways, we have Missouri doing pretty much the same as what we thought they had last year, which was what, Jaden?
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: 180.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so we estimated 180 and they came in at a final yield of 183 last year for Missouri.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: We think it's right in there again this year.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing way above that by any means.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: Stone X today, do you know what they had for their yield out of Missouri for their estimate?
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: I I can't remember out of that.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think it was pretty close.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: 178, money.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: 178.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, we're even above Stonex in that estimate, for example.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, that uh a little bit of uh of a change there, but uh how about Illinois?
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: We uh finished up a few stops there just on the western side and then kind of right in the middle with a couple stops.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: What did you think of uh of what we saw throughout the entirety of southern Illinois there, kind of on the west?
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, our first stop in Pike County there.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: I I thought the crops looked really good, no visible signs of stress.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Um, some some farmers in the area believe, I mean, it's not a record crop, but it's a really good crop.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um their expectations remain pretty s strong.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there was mention of a few pollination issues, but if though if those are your biggest issues, I think I think you're you're in a good boat.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: But I mean, I guess they had some excess heat and some excess rainfall that in a critical window, in a window there, that could impact some eels.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: But other than that, uh Southern Illinois or Central Illinois there as a whole looked looked very good, Mike.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: It looked good.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: It didn't seem like it blew the doors off either though, did it?
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean it seemed like normal yields.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: Very if you compared our samples at each stop with the prior year samples, how did they compare when you looked at individual ears and and pollination or a population, things like that?
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, we definitely had some bigger ears last year.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um I there was uh some farmers were saying that I mean the early planted corn was is better off this year and that later planted corn.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we just had they've had so much heat, it just maybe uh pushed that corn plant uh further along than on a normal pace, and maybe um the the kernel population was faster than normal.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the kernel fill there letting yeah that makes that makes sense.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: I I've I've heard that a little bit as well.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: So shout out to Nubbs for letting us uh go on his property again this year.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: Here he stopped by and got chat with us on the mower there.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: So it was nice to see what he came in at population, when the day was planted, things like that, and how it ended up actually doing last year as a consistent stop.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: So any other final thoughts for uh for our trip into Illinois so far?
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mean McLean is basically that was our final stop tonight, and that's the top corn production county in the United States, isn't it?
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, it's it's it is up there for for county-wise in the U.S.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: But uh I don't think we're blowing the doors off or anything, no, no really big record yields, but I I think there's definitely a good crop out here in Illinois.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so when I really look at especially the numbers Stonex gave us today, like with our two states that we've narrowed in now on both Nebraska and with Missouri, very similar to what their yields were, nothing crazy outlandish.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: It's really when we go tomorrow and we're gonna drive through, we're gonna have Indiana and Ohio yields finalized tomorrow, pretty well, maybe not in the Indiana yet, but it'll be close.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so it'll be really interesting to see what they think about those two states.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: Any other final thoughts for us here?
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think tomorrow's kind of a big day to see where the national yield lies.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um, kind of see the reasoning behind Stonex's numbers and and especially Ohio and Indiana there.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: For sure.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: And then it's gonna be a big price action day tomorrow as well, approaching that$4 mark there as we head into the WASD Airport next week.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time, Jaden.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: Please follow along on our website, uh, look at any of our crop calculators.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_01: You can go on there, click around, play with the yields on each state level as well, and how that impacts final yields.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you could put in stone axes, for example, with how they came out and changed some things, or or follow along with the yields that we provide in there as well.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: And and you can go in each individual field.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: We have it so you can set up, put your population in, put each yield sample in for each uh year, and uh get a calculated popul or a calculated yield there.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: So thank you for your time.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: Have a great night.