Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | February 3, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA Show | February 3, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Fall. System's going clear for lifting. What's going on? Everybody? Happy
• 0:38
  Friday. Hope your week's been going well. Hope the weekend have some exciting
• 0:42
  plans. Hey, at least tomorrow you got some fights on the screen for
• 0:46
  Eastern thirteen fights, probably about seven hours of Islands. I'm super pumped under
• 0:51
  k up top. Please tell me we keep thirteen fights so far, majority
• 0:56
  of the fighters have waited in. Nobody has missed weight yet, so fingers
• 1:00
  cross man. It feels like an eternity since we've had thirteen fights and talking
• 1:03
  dfs, this is one of the better cards. I think you can draw
• 1:07
  up only one favorite over minus three hundred. Interesting main event, but when
• 1:11
  I think you can get away a little bit a lot of close line fights
• 1:15
  again, thirteen. The bigger the number, the better, the more combinations
• 1:19
  out there. Yeah, maybe name value wise top to bottom not the best,
• 1:23
  but man, I'm pumped for this one. Eleven straight weeks us some
• 1:26
  fights. And before I throw it to you, we also are man Primetime
• 1:29
  dfs giving away a monthly membership. Just like our guy Payer Bay giving away
• 1:33
  three Primetime dfs want to give one away, so shout out to you,
• 1:37
  my man. We will pick a random winner on this show. I don't
• 1:41
  know exactly the best way to do it right now. If you have any
• 1:44
  thoughts right now, I'll throw it to you. But if you have thoughts,
• 1:47
  think of it. Otherwise we will come up with something in the beginning
• 1:49
  of the show. But how's it going, my man? Good man?
• 1:53
  I would say, maybe just throw comment in chat we'll scroll through, pick
• 1:56
  a random one at the end or something like that. Marley will pick one
• 1:59
  at the So throw in a random comment. Any other words, Marley will
• 2:01
  pick one at the end. Again, shout out to you Prime DFS.
• 2:05
  What's going on though, Mark? Yeah, man, excited for this long
• 2:07
  stretch of cards. This definitely isn't my favorite card, but I do think
• 2:12
  it's a tough one and one that we can get different a lot of ways.
• 2:15
  I also think that all thirteen underdogs could win on this card, and
• 2:20
  it wouldn't shock me, to be honest with you. So the favorites are
• 2:23
  the tough part for me. I'm definitely fine leaving salary on the table on
• 2:28
  this card, though, but excited to talk it out with you. Hopefully
• 2:30
  we find a way to ship it. Yeah, No, I agree with
• 2:34
  you for sure. All thirteen underdogs. Wouldn't be surprised about any of them.
• 2:38
  Ownership I think will be. I mean so looking at our ownership numbers
• 2:40
  right now, all of the stuff is pretty much done. The ownership's not
• 2:44
  on the site yet, but I will say we only have three fighters above
• 2:47
  forty percent, and that's Roman Delieds have forty two, Emovov at forty one,
• 2:53
  the two main events obviously, and then Femba Grimbo at forty one percent.
• 2:57
  So I think it's definitely gonna be spread out. We only have what
• 3:00
  one in the thirties range at mount or two, Nato way Kano and Molly
• 3:05
  McCann in the thirties what I'm seeing right now, So yeah, ownership definitely
• 3:08
  gonna be spread out. Trying to see where your story RANKO twenty three percent
• 3:13
  all right, So everything will be up after the show. Fight rankings,
• 3:17
  tier rankings, MARLESA rankings. We got our projections, ownership of course,
• 3:23
  cast report, GPP corps report, everything you need in MMA. We got
• 3:27
  the slate info that is, free breaks on the odds, the inside,
• 3:30
  the distance lines, et cetera. Of course, in the discord, a
• 3:34
  lot of sharp people in there talking fights as well, no better time to
• 3:37
  join. Don't join yet, though, because if you're not a member,
• 3:39
  you do have a chance at that free one month. I would wait for
• 3:42
  that, and then if you do want to join, you don't get that
• 3:45
  one month, you can check it out. NBA going on today, nice
• 3:47
  big slate, NHL going on, No NFL this week, still got showed
• 3:51
  out next week. A lot of fun times. PGA going on right now.
• 3:54
  Very excited, very exciting time of the year, no doubt about that.
• 4:00
  Before we go fight by fight thirteen to talk about, we got to
• 4:02
  say hi to people in chat. Ben's in here, like always hope you're
• 4:05
  doing well, man, Nate d Lone Wolf, Red Scott Whaler's in here.
• 4:11
  Apex known for dogs barking. I don't know actually the numbers. Definitely
• 4:15
  don't know the numbers. Nothing off the top, yeah, nothing off the
• 4:18
  top of my head says yes or no. When I see Apex. I
• 4:21
  just know I favor wrestlers a little more because it's easier to grab them,
• 4:26
  get ahold of them. Like a Sean O'Malley type, much rather fight at
• 4:30
  a bigger cage than he would in the APEX, especially like someone against al
• 4:33
  Jo. So just little stuff like that, but doesn't change my thoughts too
• 4:38
  much. Mark's in here, Whaler again, Randy did make weight one to
• 4:42
  seventy? Or Roddy, Well, you're talking about Randy Baum, rude boy,
• 4:45
  Randy Roddy figure talking about him? If we're talking about someone else,
• 4:49
  But Randy Brown didn't make weight? Who Rodriguez? Maybe? Oh, Pete
• 4:54
  Rodriguez. He made weight at one seventy as well? Maybe it is Rodriguez
• 4:58
  Ross k Shawn Sall then Eddie in here as well? All right, not
• 5:01
  of that again, appreciate everyone hanging out. We appreciate that. Like button
• 5:04
  if you do want to join us Shipping Nation dot com weekly, monthly,
• 5:09
  six months and annual packages. Let's talk some fights though, Big Man Bottom
• 5:14
  to Top Bike always again a very fun and interesting DFS card. Excited to
• 5:17
  get your thoughts here. First card of the night, The Big Boys Baby
• 5:20
  Thomas Peterson Jamal Pogues minus one sixty three is Peterson Jamal Pogues plus one forty
• 5:27
  three on the way back looking at the inside the distance props minus one fifteen
• 5:30
  for this fight to finish, Peterson plus one forty inside the distance Jamal Pogues
• 5:35
  plus four seventy five, Peterson eighty seven hundred, Jamal Pogue seventy five hundred.
• 5:41
  Throw it right to you, take this one away. Yeah, I
• 5:44
  think we're starting off with one that I want in more lineups than I don't
• 5:47
  have it. Uh, But Peterson's gonna be my preferred play here because I
• 5:53
  just think he has more of a ceiling with his aggressiveness. He's one that
• 5:57
  actually wants to hurt his opponent, where Pogues just seems fine point fighting his
• 6:00
  way to a decision. But I think the early success goes to Peterson.
• 6:05
  And he's not really a great wrestler, but he is a powerful, strong
• 6:12
  guy. His entries aren't the greatest, but once he gets ahold of his
• 6:15
  opponent, I think he is able to get both of them down, and
• 6:18
  then once he's in top control, that's where he does his best work.
• 6:21
  And I think he could finish in the first round and put up a big
• 6:25
  boy score or even a second round finish from him I think would be one
• 6:29
  hundred maybe more points. But he is plus one forty inside the distance.
• 6:36
  That's a little bit over a forty percent chance of finishing, and that's kind
• 6:40
  of where I see my ownership being just kind of around his ITD line,
• 6:44
  because if he gets a finish, I expect a big score ten x or
• 6:47
  more, and if he wins a decision, my worry would be that he
• 6:53
  gases out, maybe even loses the third round and just doesn't do enough points
• 6:57
  to get there in a decision, and then that also puts Pogues in play.
• 7:00
  I think he's gonna be the better boxer here. He also has wrestling
• 7:04
  upside, but I don't think that'll be as much early in the fight.
• 7:08
  I think that would be when Peterson starts to slow down. But Pogues also
• 7:12
  doesn't do a whole lot when he gets his takedowns. Where Peterson's trying to
• 7:15
  finish his opponent, Poges is fine just laying there and just grinding out time.
• 7:19
  So I don't love that. I'm fine getting a little bit of Pogue's
• 7:23
  exposure, but I'll probably be around field weight, maybe even underweight on Pogues,
• 7:28
  and I am guessing I'll be overweight on the Peterson side. He's a
• 7:31
  risky favorite, but that's what I like about it GPP only. I don't
• 7:35
  really trust him in cash games, but I think he's a good GPP leverage
• 7:39
  play in this one. Yeah, we see it a lot in the same
• 7:42
  So we got Peterson at twenty nine percent, Pogues at fifteen percent. I
• 7:46
  mean, we're talking Pogues at fifteen percent. Some of my fads down here
• 7:50
  is like Viviana Ruso, I'm not really gonna get there. I don't like
• 7:53
  Muzzim Salakov much. I'm actually we'll get to that main event. But I
• 7:58
  got a little hotter take there. I think I'm gonna be underweight on the
• 8:01
  fight and play some of these like first four fights we talk about. I
• 8:05
  guess that's kind of broad slate, right there. A lot of these mid
• 8:07
  tier fights to kick it off. Kenong is of the world, sowy rankos,
• 8:11
  the Lee's, the Peterson's all lower on then that main event for sure,
• 8:16
  So I'm gonna hope some of those outscore them. So I'm naturally gonna
• 8:18
  have these this fight. But Pogues at fifteen percent, I'm fine with Peterson
• 8:24
  plus one to forty inside the distance, like you said, almost forty percent
• 8:28
  mid to low level heavyweights. It can get sloppy out there. Again,
• 8:31
  both guys I consider primary wrestlers, But if it's on the feet, it's
• 8:35
  gonna be sloppy. We just saw Jamal Poe's get outstruck what ninety six to
• 8:41
  thirty five or something like that to Mick Parkin. Who do you think that's
• 8:45
  the cardio advantage? This fight starts a third round, well, Pogues just
• 8:48
  because the one time Peterson went to the third round he gassed out and got
• 8:52
  finished, where we have seen Pogues go three rounds at least, So I
• 8:56
  have to side with Poges there. Yeah, that makes sense. I don't
• 9:03
  know. I'm definitely on the Peterson side because I like his upside way more
• 9:07
  like Pogues. Even if he wins and he somehow can stuff the takedowns,
• 9:11
  like I could see him scoring like sixty eight seventy five points in a win,
• 9:13
  but at fifteen percent, he's gonna be pretty low owned down here in
• 9:18
  terms of money line value. Plus one forty three isn't bad at all at
• 9:20
  seventy five hundred talking big boys, heavyweights. So I'll have some Pogues,
• 9:24
  but Peterson is the preferred play chasing the upside there. If he does get
• 9:28
  on the mat, does get on top, definitely can finish that fight.
• 9:31
  So yeah, Peterson for me, I like, So, I guess I'm
• 9:37
  gonna skip forward a little bit on the stoyer Ranco, Madero's Builder Peterson fight.
• 9:41
  Rank those in order of your favorites. Oh boy, because the prist
• 9:46
  right there. The reason I'm asking Big Marley again. The main event eighty
• 9:48
  six hundred and seventy six hundred is gonna get a lot of ownership. Why
• 9:52
  I'm kind of going to these fights eighty seven hundred and seventy five hundred minus
• 9:56
  won fifteen to finish, Vadero's eighty five hundred, Conona's seventy seven hundred minus
• 10:01
  one thirty five to finish. So RANKO eighty two, Kerlina Ak minus one
• 10:05
  twenty five to finish, John Gung Lee Blake Builder eighty three, seventy nine
• 10:09
  hundred minus one forty to finish. All of them are gonna be lower owned
• 10:13
  than that main event, all slightly favored to finish a lot of them are
• 10:18
  cheaper too. So how do you get different right away? And my whole
• 10:20
  slight overview, man, this show could be ten minutes if that, well,
• 10:24
  I'll give you my ranking and then we can just talk about them when
• 10:28
  we get to the fight. The fights. But I'll say the Girl fights
• 10:31
  my favorite of those three. My second favorite would be the Builder fight,
• 10:37
  and then my least would be Maderos. But you have the Peterson, you'd
• 10:41
  have the Peterson one. Three, all right, I got it, stole
• 10:45
  Ranko fight one, Maderio's Kenyong is two, Peterson, Poge's three, Builder
• 10:50
  four. But it's tough. I'm gonna be fighting actually be my favorite.
• 10:54
  I'm sorry, Peter know we're including him, So him and then stoli Erenco,
• 10:58
  then Builder, then uh, Maderos, then the Madeo's love it well
• 11:03
  again, those are the first four fights we're gonna talk about the reason I
• 11:07
  wanted to bring that up. Thill, Like my Slate overview, I'm gonna
• 11:09
  be underweight on the main event eighty six hundred and seventy six hundred. All
• 11:13
  four of these fights are the pivots right in that same range. If you
• 11:16
  don't play a main event fighter, and you play Maderos instead or Peterson instead,
• 11:20
  or whatever it may be. I guess Peterson's one hundred more. You
• 11:24
  can get different that way, fading the main event, leaving salary, et
• 11:26
  cetera. So that's my plan. These first four fights. I'm gonna be
• 11:30
  having some next one Marcal Madero's landing Cononas Madero's eighty five hundred, Canona seventy
• 11:35
  seven hundred, Madero's minus one thirty five Coonas plus one fifteen. This fight
• 11:41
  is minus one thirty five to finish with Madero's plus one fifty inside the distance
• 11:46
  Connonas plus three twenty five. I think this will be a pretty fun scrap.
• 11:50
  So I had it ranked second, and my reasoning was Madero's looks like
• 11:54
  a heavy hitter, looks to be dangerous, especially early in the fight.
• 11:58
  Plus one fifty inside the distance, big first round knockout isn't play. He's
• 12:03
  plus three fifty for that. If he does get that, probably most definitely
• 12:07
  optimal. And with Lanta cononas big Marlin, I think you probably know your
• 12:13
  camera did go off. There you go, you fix it. Lanty Conona's
• 12:16
  second UFC walk to the octagon, but his debut a week's notice against Nazara
• 12:20
  hat Press lands over one hundred and forty significant strikes like he clearly has cardio
• 12:26
  for days, he can throw volume. I think if he can survive early,
• 12:28
  it's probably his fight to lose. And then looking at line movement,
• 12:33
  this fight, then a lot of it. This fight opened Madero's minus two
• 12:37
  twenty Conyona's plus one eighty five and slowly. I guess it was slow to
• 12:41
  start, but even these past couple of days, man Canyona has again been
• 12:45
  getting hammered. Line got all the way down to plus one oh seven.
• 12:48
  I'm seeing there's a little buyback on Maderos now plus one fifteen. Canonias so
• 12:54
  probably hovers around here minus one thirty five, one fifteen, A lot of
• 12:56
  line movement on the Conyona's side. Debut against a second time or how do
• 13:01
  you see it going down? Seeah, I do think this is gonna be
• 13:03
  a fun fight, but I put it as my least favorite because I like
• 13:09
  the Madero side more and I don't know that he has a big upside unless
• 13:13
  he gets a finish here. I would think that Quinonas is the higher volume
• 13:20
  striker. Based on his UFC debut. The guy landed one hundred and forty
• 13:24
  three signific or one hundred and forty eight significant strikes and a loss, which
• 13:28
  is super impressive, But at the same time, like he had to land
• 13:31
  that many strikes because he ate like one hundred and seventy one strike, so
• 13:35
  he just had to keep him coming back. So I don't expect that type
• 13:37
  of volume here. But at the same time, I just didn't see Maderos
• 13:41
  as a volume type of striker. He's more of a press forward, uh,
• 13:46
  pick his shots, try and get the big shots to finish you type
• 13:50
  of guy. But he's consistent with leg kicks, which I really like,
• 13:54
  and he can also mix in takedown. So I just feel like Maderos goes
• 13:58
  out there whin and score seventy five to eighty five points. Maybe he gets
• 14:03
  you there, maybe it doesn't. So like I'm not taking a big stance
• 14:07
  on him. And then on the Quinona side, I just think he's gonna
• 14:09
  get a little bit too much interest in the field because of this line movement,
• 14:13
  or I don't know that I want to match it, So I'm probably
• 14:18
  for single entry. I'd be fine with either one, but I would guess
• 14:20
  that this fight doesn't make it into my single entry lineup. But with MMM,
• 14:24
  i'd be fine anywhere from like fifteen to thirty five percent on these guys.
• 14:30
  I just don't have a real good idea of how this one's gonna play
• 14:33
  out, but I like Madaro's to be the more skilled fighter. If the
• 14:37
  striking's not going his way, I think he's the more likely wrestler. So
• 14:41
  give me Madero's twenty nine to twenty eight in this one. But if you
• 14:43
  go out there and you talk up Quinonees, you can really change my mind
• 14:46
  on this fight. To be honest, Yeah no, I'm not gonna confidence
• 14:52
  isn't like that for kannonas I am on the Kenona side. A lot of
• 14:54
  that has to do with, Hey, I just saw the volume he can
• 14:56
  put up on short notice. I think hat Press is better than Madero's.
• 15:01
  Again, I think he's really dangerous early and that's why I'll have some But
• 15:05
  UFC debut like Conona is a way bigger step up a competition than Madero.
• 15:09
  So wo we just bought a contender series in round one and again vice versa
• 15:13
  for Cononez from Half Press. And what I like most though, is eighty
• 15:18
  five hundred and seventy seven hundred. You literally can go build teams, plug
• 15:22
  in Maderos, take out Maderos, plugging Cononas. You just left eight hundred
• 15:26
  on the table, and it's a plus one fifteen minus one thirty five plus
• 15:30
  one fifteen fight like it's not a coin flip, but it's pretty close.
• 15:33
  And if in the lineup with Maderos that left zero dollars had sixty dupes and
• 15:37
  the lineup with Cononas instead of Madeo's had eight dupes, like you're that's a
• 15:43
  plus ev move. At the end of the day, you respected payouts,
• 15:46
  especially in terms of that. So that's the main reason that I'm Cononas.
• 15:50
  I like the volume from them, But eighty five hundred take Madero's out,
• 15:54
  plugging Connonas a lot easier to get different that way because of the because of
• 15:58
  the pricing. That's the main thing for me. But again, all four
• 16:00
  of these guys, like looking at our projected ownership in this fight, we
• 16:04
  have Madero seventeen percent, Canona is eighteen percent. I wouldn't be surprised,
• 16:08
  like you said, if Canona has got a little more steam, like twenty
• 16:11
  three something like that. But compare that to Delindzay and Imabov forty two and
• 16:15
  forty one, and we're talking half the ownership on these first couple fights for
• 16:21
  the most part. And that's just that's my stance right now. Thirteen fights,
• 16:23
  I can see the main event and we'll talk about it. And it
• 16:26
  gets there. You're parlaying who wins, which I think is pretty tough to
• 16:30
  think. Deleds is very live, Imabov is tough. And then you're parlaying
• 16:33
  that into a good score. And with thirteen fights, I think we're only
• 16:37
  waiting on three fighters to make weight. The more fights, the more bigger
• 16:41
  scores you need, the more optimal performances, so it's easier to find other
• 16:45
  fights and lower on fighters outscore them. So yeah, that's my whole It
• 16:48
  could little bed a five minute show for me. It's game theory. That's
• 16:51
  what MMA is for the most part. But play these first four fights more
• 16:55
  than that main event because it's all similar pricing and you get an ownership disc,
• 17:00
  all expected to finish as well. So there's this speel there. Kenonas
• 17:03
  with the eight hundred dollars savings. Not a hot take or not a strong
• 17:07
  take, so I'm not gonna try and talk you into it. I think
• 17:08
  Madero's a solid too, and I love his light kicks as well, So
• 17:12
  hey, Madero's knocks mount in the first round, I would definitely take that.
• 17:15
  Just give me some optimal performances in these first couple fights. Appreciate that
• 17:21
  Pastor Baker, what's going on? Ge Kaifer, Michael Ross k suns out,
• 17:25
  guns out always for Big Marley, Baby Big Driggs in here as well,
• 17:29
  Mike Spencer. Appreciate everyone hanging out. And again, if you want
• 17:32
  a membership, saw a couple of people in chat our Man Primetime DFS.
• 17:36
  Very nice of you giving away a one month all access package. So again,
• 17:41
  put in the YouTube comment We're gonna randomize. Big Marley's gonna pick someone.
• 17:45
  Have some words in there, maybe talk about Big Marley's muscles, whateverything
• 17:49
  you think gets his attention. You get a chance for a monthly membership.
• 17:53
  Keep it rolling. Favorite fight, your favorite fight of the four or no,
• 17:57
  your second favorite fight. Peterson more but Julio Solorenko, Luana Carolina minus
• 18:03
  one forty nine for stol Urenco plus one twenty nine for Lauana Carolina. The
• 18:07
  closest price fighting on the card eighty two hundred eight thousand. This fight is
• 18:12
  minus one twenty five to finish most of that finishing equity on the soll Uranco
• 18:18
  side plus one fifteen inside the distance. Excuse me, Carolina plus five seventy
• 18:22
  five Can Solurenko get a take down? Baby Marley, because if she does,
• 18:29
  you know that arm bar is coming. And I mean plus one fifteen
• 18:32
  inside the distance, plus one thirty by submission, plus two to twenty five
• 18:36
  in round one. Like the books are pretty much saying it's round one and
• 18:40
  it's gonna be an arm bar. I remember a couple fights back before I
• 18:42
  didn't throw it to you. I was like, all she does is armbar.
• 18:45
  I mean, it's been no secret forever, but this was probably like
• 18:48
  two years ago or something, and we still try to look at the prop
• 18:52
  on a different site that had it, and it was the arm bar was
• 18:55
  so close to the submission, Like we weren't even tricking them back then,
• 18:59
  and now you're definly not tricking anybody. I mean, all ten of her
• 19:02
  submissions, all in round one, all by armbar. How it's gonna go
• 19:07
  if she wins us fight? You see it going that way? Yeah,
• 19:10
  I mean I think the way to bet Stoliorenko would be first round submission at
• 19:15
  plus three hundred, because that is her best and most likely chance at winning,
• 19:21
  because when she gets the fight to the ground, it might only take
• 19:22
  one takedowns, but she is dangerous with that armbar. Whether she's in top
• 19:26
  or bottom. Caroline is gonna be in a lot of trouble if this fight
• 19:30
  hits the matt early. But stoli Erenko is not a good wrestler, and
• 19:33
  the longer this fight goes, the worse her wrestling, the sloppier it's going
• 19:37
  to start getting. So I think that Carolina just starts to take over,
• 19:42
  and if it goes the distance, Carolina probably wins at least two rounds,
• 19:45
  if not all three. Uh So, yeah, I think all the finishing
• 19:49
  upside, at least early finishing upside, is going to be on the stoly
• 19:52
  Ornco side. And I think I probably do have her ownership a little bit
• 19:56
  too low right now. It's like plus one point fifteen inside the distance.
• 20:00
  That's I think it'll be chance. Like I wrote my light up, I
• 20:04
  was really curious that your ownership, So we have twenty three percent right now.
• 20:10
  I do think that problem high twenties. I wouldn't need s Fri to
• 20:14
  see low thirties. It was a thirteen fight card at thirty. Actually it
• 20:17
  is a it is a thirteen fight card, but yah, I think we
• 20:18
  might be a little light on that. Again, that'll all be up on
• 20:22
  the site after this show. Yeah, so plus one fifteen inside the distance,
• 20:26
  that's about forty six percent chance of finishing this fight, and it most
• 20:30
  likely comes early. So if I was picking stoli Erinco to win, I'm
• 20:34
  probably matching that and going like forty six percent exposure or something like that.
• 20:40
  But I just don't like her wrestling enough, and I think if Carolina can
• 20:42
  make it out of the first round, that this is her fight to lose.
• 20:45
  Just stay away from this girl, your pick your shots on the feet
• 20:49
  out striker, and it's an easy, clear decision. And I don't like
• 20:53
  the ceiling for Carolina, but that's what makes me like stolli Erinco less.
• 20:59
  I guess I still don't want to be too far under the field, though,
• 21:03
  so I'm like fine with twenty to thirty percent stoli Erenko. And then
• 21:07
  on the Carolina side, I don't know what to do with her. I
• 21:10
  think she should not be going for any takedowns here, and I think her
• 21:14
  volume, like she's typically a pretty decent volume striker, but in this one
• 21:18
  where you don't want the girl to grab you, I think you'd probably take
• 21:22
  it a little more tentative and you don't throw as much, so it makes
• 21:25
  me want to go underweight to Carolina. And the reason I ranked this fight
• 21:29
  high is because of the Stollerenko ceiling. If she goes out there gets a
• 21:33
  first round arm bar, She's already sitting at ninety five plus points. Ninety
• 21:37
  five plus points at eighty two hundred dollars is going to be on the optimal
• 21:41
  lineup. So even though I'm not picking her to win, stolli Erenko is
• 21:45
  like one of the best plays in that range. I think there's a couple
• 21:48
  of fights like that where even if you are picking the other side, like
• 21:51
  the money line, he thinks too wide, which I very well could argue
• 21:55
  that in this fight, the better DFS play is Stolyerenko because her first run
• 21:59
  upside is huge. But I do think I'm gonna Carolina. I'm gonna have
• 22:03
  some Carolina for sure. We have again this fight twenty three to nineteen right
• 22:07
  now. It again probably will be updated a little bit. I'm thinking more
• 22:10
  thirty fifteen. So when I did on him, she was like minus one
• 22:15
  twenty five. Now she's up to fifty. It's already moved a full five
• 22:18
  percent, So yeah, I got to up the ownership, probably at least
• 22:21
  five percent put me up to what's that twenty eight percent? Yeah, so
• 22:25
  let's call thirty fifteen thirty fifteen. And if that's the case, that would
• 22:29
  make Soyerurenko like roughly the fifth highest owned fighter on the cart or something like
• 22:33
  that. I'll play Carolina for the leverage off of a soy Urenco and then
• 22:37
  I mean, I can see this fight kind of going like the Chelsea Chandler
• 22:41
  fight, can't you? Like Soierenko, she got the takedown early, and
• 22:44
  if you actually remember she got it, she got it to her arm bar
• 22:47
  position like I was on Sowyerenko. She had it exactly where she needed.
• 22:52
  The second Chelsea Chandler got out, it was gg's from there. But man
• 22:56
  if Carolina can say like Sowyerenko when she's not shoting takedowns or like, but
• 23:00
  she can't get them. She's a walking punching, big aggressive walks forward Like.
• 23:04
  I think Carolina does have volume upside in this fight, And I don't
• 23:10
  know what soli Renko can't get takedowns earlier. Is she has to work like
• 23:12
  if this is or fights in the third round. I feel like Carolina,
• 23:17
  I don't know her jab. I guess I'll say, no, it's not
• 23:18
  great, nothing by any means, but just her winging out punches, she's
• 23:22
  long, I mean, Soli Rinko walks into them. I wouldn't be surprised
• 23:26
  to see hunter significant strikes, maybe some weird stuff there. Any thoughts there?
• 23:30
  If the fight gets laid, how you see it going? Yeah,
• 23:34
  I mean if it goes late. I really struggle to see how Stoli Renko
• 23:38
  would win unless she's really improved her wrestling. Like, if she improves her
• 23:41
  wrestling, she's dangerous. She's got a ceiling in the sport. But I
• 23:45
  just haven't seen it enough to think that she has any real chance outside of
• 23:49
  that first round arm bar. And I just don't agree with somebody being a
• 23:52
  sixty percent favorite when they're a first round armbar or a bus type of fighter.
• 23:56
  So would that be Carolina by decision? You trust solwy Ranko at least
• 24:00
  to have the yeah, yeah, maybe die like make like Mike Malott,
• 24:04
  Yeah, Like, who's who's more likely to get a third round finish in
• 24:07
  here? I would think Carolina Carolina yeah, and I yeah, Like,
• 24:12
  well, I don't know who knows. Let's see what the odds have on
• 24:15
  that before we get the next by Carolina odds don't agree plus one thousand.
• 24:18
  Actually that no, that's really weird. So depending on what book you look
• 24:22
  at, I guess my book you don't even know if that. So my
• 24:26
  bookie has sty rank around three at plus eight twenties. Oh yeah, both
• 24:30
  of them. All the books have has Towy Ranco better winning. I guess
• 24:34
  that makes sense, though, Like, is there ever gonna be a favorite
• 24:37
  that they have at worse finishing odds than any round than the dog? Interesting?
• 24:42
  I would think when it's so close to pick him, it could happen.
• 24:45
  But yeah, I guess I don't know. I mean that arm bar
• 24:48
  is dangerous in any round, but true never got it in the third,
• 24:51
  so I don't know. Yeah, interesting fight. But again I think ownership
• 24:56
  roughly thirty fifteen. Even if solwy Ranko is like thirty five percent, man,
• 25:00
  I think that'd be over owned. With her upside and how she fights,
• 25:03
  I'm still playing some of her, like I don't want a first round
• 25:06
  arm bar and just be stone dead three fights in because chalk soy Urenco broke
• 25:11
  the slate like that's what she does with the arm bar, So I'm good
• 25:14
  eating that chalk. But the Carolina with the leverage off of toy Ranco and
• 25:18
  the really low ownership in that tier, again, I can see a path.
• 25:21
  Maybe she Soyeranco bad Cardio can't get takedowns, and you just hope it's
• 25:26
  woman's mma. Man, we've seen some crazy things happen. So that's that
• 25:29
  fight. We'll keep a roll on A thirteen to talk about man three fights
• 25:33
  twenty five minutes. We'll speed it up a little bit here, Jong Young
• 25:37
  Lee like Builder, Lee minus one sixty, Builder plus one forty Looking at
• 25:41
  the odds or looking at the pricing in this one, Lee eighty three hundred,
• 25:45
  Builder seventy nine hundred. This is again the fourth fight we talked about
• 25:49
  in that mid tier range. I'm playing all of them as pivots from the
• 25:52
  main events Minus won forty to finish Lee plus one forty five, Builder plus
• 25:57
  three ten. I'll throw right to you. I will say our ownership twenty
• 26:02
  two percent on Lee, twenty one percent on Builder, and again all four
• 26:04
  of those fights significantly almost half the ownership of that main event in the same
• 26:10
  range. So break this one down, Pols, see this one. I
• 26:15
  feel like there's recency bias in the line based on Builder's last fight, coming
• 26:21
  in as a favorite, losing to Kyle Nelson, who's not a good UFC
• 26:25
  fighter, and just really doing nothing in that fight, and then there's some
• 26:27
  hype around Lee. He has power in his hands, he's a he's a
• 26:33
  pretty good striker. But I'm I wasn't blown away with anything I saw in
• 26:37
  Lee, and I'm not so sure that he wins a fifteen minute striking match
• 26:41
  here. I think that volume could be close, if not towards the Builder
• 26:44
  side. I do think power is on the Lease side. Durability is also
• 26:48
  probably on the Lease side, because like Builder gets cracked in almost every single
• 26:52
  fight. It seems like you think he's gonna get finished, and he just
• 26:55
  never has been knocked out. Yet. One day it's gonna happen. Maybe
• 26:57
  it's here with Lee, and with the line moving in his favor, it's
• 27:03
  kind of talking me into a little bit more Lee exposure. But I think
• 27:07
  he needs the knockout to have any real ceiling. I don't think he's gonna
• 27:11
  go out there trying to land takedowns on this fight. I don't think he's
• 27:14
  gonna be a very high volume striker. It's just more that he'll plant his
• 27:17
  feet and he'll throw some hard bombs and one of those could crack Builder and
• 27:19
  put them away in the first round. And that's what puts him on the
• 27:22
  optimal But if the line movement is also going to have ownership come along with
• 27:27
  Lee, then I'm gonna be underweight to the field on him. I like
• 27:32
  Builder in this one. Not only do I think he could keep it real
• 27:33
  close in a fifteen minute striking match. He's got some power to but I
• 27:37
  think he's the better grappler of the two, the more likely wrestler. He's
• 27:41
  also the underdog, and if I didn't see that last fight, then I
• 27:45
  favor Builder in this matchup, So it's more of a pick him to me,
• 27:49
  and I'll be overweight to the Builder side. I think he has more
• 27:53
  ways to hit a ceiling as well, So overweight Builder underweight league, give
• 27:57
  me the underdog. Yeah, that all makes sense to me. We got
• 28:02
  Sean v saying Lee and not Good look good in his last fight. Builder
• 28:04
  looked awful in his last fight. So two guys coming off lackluster performances.
• 28:10
  I think it's kind of like Lee early powerful strong build, their slow starter
• 28:15
  build, their late very good Cardio Lee can slow down this. I ranked
• 28:21
  this one my fourth favorite fight of the first four we're talking about, though,
• 28:23
  because you said Builder probably a better wrestler. I think it probably stays
• 28:26
  on the feed for fifteen though, like if it doesn't, if one of
• 28:30
  these guys don't get cracked their striking the whole time, and I mean,
• 28:33
  at that point, what do you need? Like one hundred and fifty plus
• 28:36
  significant strikes and sometimes even that without a knockdown isn't enough. So again,
• 28:41
  I'm playing this fight because half the ownership of the main event in the mid
• 28:45
  tier, similarly to Price, but I do prefer Stoley Rankle Lejana Carolina fights,
• 28:51
  Madero's canonas fight in the Peterson Pogues fights. If I had to pick
• 28:55
  now, Like, yeah, I like Builder more than Pogues as an underdog
• 29:00
  for pretty much the same money line odds and stuff like that. But I
• 29:03
  do have this fight ranks last of the three. I think I prefer Lee
• 29:07
  a little more than Builder because I do think he Lee has first round knockout
• 29:11
  upside, and if that's the case, I mean plus one forty five isn't
• 29:15
  bad for inside the distance hits hard early. I think That's where the ceiling
• 29:19
  really comes from Builder, which just has to put on a pace takeover.
• 29:22
  Maybe mix in wrestling there. But I'll go side with Lee as the pick.
• 29:27
  I'll side with Lee on the side. But again, I like those
• 29:30
  other three fights more. What's going on, John, Kelly, I hope
• 29:34
  you're doing well. Man. Good to see him. Yes, Sirrea,
• 29:37
  what's up? John? And I put Builder above Maderos because Builder is an
• 29:44
  underdog. I'm picking him to win. Madero's the favorite who I picked to
• 29:47
  win, So I just ranked him above him because of that reason. Makes
• 29:49
  some sense, Eddie, what's going on? Always in here? Beatle Bain
• 29:52
  no NFL very sad, MMA, We got you. I will say though,
• 29:56
  first rule, do not stack fights and GPPs. That means do not
• 30:00
  play Bil Blake, Builder and Jong Young Lee in the same lineup. And
• 30:04
  I know I said this some crazy, crazy three round fight. Stack's gonna
• 30:08
  be optim on a thirteen flight, but let's keep it going. Next fight
• 30:12
  on the card. Again, appreciates that thumbs up from everybody out there watching
• 30:15
  live, watching on playback helps us out a ton hit that subscribe button two
• 30:21
  Bemba Grimbo, Pete Rodriguez Grimbo minus two fifty Pete Rodriguez plus two ten.
• 30:26
  Grimbo looking to be one of the biggest uh one of the highest own on
• 30:30
  the card. I do think he's the highest own in the upper tier.
• 30:33
  That's how we have it forty one percent for him. Pete Rodriguez at twenty
• 30:37
  percent. This fight is minus four hundred to finish. The most likely fight
• 30:41
  to finish on the card Grimbo minus one thirty inside the distance, Pete Rodriguez
• 30:45
  plus two twenty five. Now I'm a little I think we might be a
• 30:51
  little hot on the Pete Rodriguez ownership. I don't know for sure, but
• 30:56
  I wouldn't be surprised if he was like closer to the fifteen than the twenty.
• 30:59
  Regardless of what I'm saying, though, I love this fight, and
• 31:00
  I know Grimo's gonna be popular and like same thing what I just said about
• 31:04
  stoy Rnko. If Grimbo wins, I think he scores well, he's gonna
• 31:08
  look to wrestle. He's gonna look to grapple. Pete Rodriguez doesn't have hasn't
• 31:12
  shown anything off his back. I don't think the fight would go really well
• 31:15
  for him. So if Grimo wins. I think there's a lot of upside
• 31:19
  there. I'm fine playing him as chalk. Plenty of ways to get different
• 31:22
  on a thirteen fight card. Now, I've interested Pete Rodriguez because he cracks.
• 31:27
  I don't think Rimbo's that like, he's definitely overrated, like minus two
• 31:30
  fifty or like one of the chalkiest favorites on the card being them a grimbo.
• 31:36
  I don't know, man, Like, I don't have the confidence in
• 31:37
  him like that. Pete hits hard plus two twenty five inside the distance and
• 31:41
  you get leverage off of one of the chalkiest fighters. However, if you're
• 31:45
  telling me he's twenty percent, which I'm seeing in your ownership shout out sheets,
• 31:48
  has been as good as anybody in the industry. It's been the highest
• 31:52
  that he's looked at so far since following If it's twenty percent, though,
• 31:56
  and you tell me that right now, I don't know how much I want
• 31:59
  at twenty So talk to me on this one great fight though. Seeah,
• 32:02
  this is actually my favorite fight on the card for DFS because I think we're
• 32:06
  getting a big score from either one of them, and I think Peter Rodriguez
• 32:10
  is just so live to come out there and break the slate first round.
• 32:15
  Just not only be the better striker, but he is trying to knock his
• 32:17
  opponent's head off it with every strike he's thrown. Basically, he's gonna be
• 32:21
  marching forward, throwing bombs, trying the stuff any takedowns Grimbo's throwing, and
• 32:25
  Grimbo's real sloppy when the fight's on his feet, so I think he could
• 32:29
  get cracked in that first round. And then Rodriguez has one hundred and ten
• 32:34
  points. If you don't have Rodriguez, you don't cash on this card type
• 32:37
  thing, and that's where I'm picking to happen. Actually, I think Rodriguez
• 32:40
  knocks him out in the first round, so that's the reason I put the
• 32:44
  ownership high. And then John Kelly and Chat, I know he's picking him
• 32:46
  to get a first round knockout too. I think he helps a little bit
• 32:49
  with that ownership, So I think he is gonna be up there in the
• 32:52
  twenty percent range. But if he doesn't get that first round knockout Grimbo,
• 32:59
  probably he mops the floor with him. I don't think Rodriguez is gonna have
• 33:01
  anything to offer against anybody on his back on the regional scene. He can
• 33:07
  go out there and land some takedowns and look pretty good in top control,
• 33:08
  and I think he could even do that here in the first round, but
• 33:13
  he's He's never been out of the first round, and I think if he
• 33:16
  does, I have to favor Grimbo's cardio, and I think it's Grimbo landing
• 33:21
  takedowns, doing whatever he wants in top control. So Grimbo probably has the
• 33:27
  highest ceiling on the card I guess, especially if if Rodriguez kind of gases
• 33:31
  out and just takes a beating while he's on the ground. Grimball scored one
• 33:36
  hundred and fourteen in his last fight that included a knockdown, but it also
• 33:39
  had three takedowns, two reversals, eleven minutes of control time. I just
• 33:44
  think we're getting one hundred plus points from either one of these guys, and
• 33:47
  I plan on being around fifty percent on Grimbo, but that's only gonna put
• 33:52
  me just a little bit above the field where I'm gonna get forty fifty percent
• 33:55
  Rodriguez, and now I'm doubling the field. So, uh, Rodriguez is
• 34:00
  my pick. He's my leverage play, and hopefully me and John Kelly will
• 34:04
  ride that to a first round. I'm not gonna Yeah, I can't argue
• 34:07
  with anything you said. Definitely the striking advantmage looking to take your head off.
• 34:10
  There's just nothing fricking more tilting than when you have all the money on
• 34:14
  the striker and he just gets taken down, put on his back right away
• 34:17
  and you're in a world of hurt. But Grimma one of the chalkiest fighters.
• 34:21
  Pete Rodriguez punt play all the leverage off of them as well. John
• 34:25
  says he has eighteen percent and you got twenty. Yeah, very similar there.
• 34:30
  So I was hoping it was gonna be like the fifteen something like that,
• 34:34
  but plus two twenty five inside the distance. I do think people probably
• 34:37
  do see that. I'll be playing both sides for sure. I probably I
• 34:42
  will have more Grimbo I know that, and now won't be more overweight on
• 34:45
  That's a little tougher question because I will be the upper tier mixing and matching.
• 34:50
  But I do agree I have Grimbow's number one in my tier rankings in
• 34:52
  the upper tier due to I think he has the highest ceiling on the slate
• 34:55
  with the wrestler like you could see plenty takedowns, plenty control time, or
• 35:00
  you could just see submission pretty quick as well. I think there's plenty of
• 35:05
  outs for a big Boys score on the Grimbo side. And I do think
• 35:07
  Pete too, Like if he wins, it's probably not Oh he got control
• 35:12
  for nine minutes the first two rounds and then just boint some in the third
• 35:15
  round, which would be how this fight bus. I don't really see it
• 35:17
  going like that either. Yeah, the A. J. Fletcher fight was
• 35:22
  definitely really good. Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the car Charles
• 35:25
  or as at maxim Charles Johnson minus two twenty for Maxim plus one eighty five
• 35:31
  for Charles Johnson talking pre show or not pre show in the beginning about APEX
• 35:36
  fighters and all that, Sean O'Malley, I said it would hurt him.
• 35:39
  Charles Johnson not a fan fighting here as well. Someone brought that up to
• 35:44
  this fight. Plus one ninety to finish Maxim plus two to seventy five inside
• 35:49
  the distance Charles Johnson plus five fifty. Looking at the odds in this one
• 35:53
  and the pricing, Maxim eighty nine hundred, and we have him at twenty
• 35:58
  three percent Charles Johnson's seventy three hundred at thirteen percent easy for me fading Charles
• 36:05
  Johnson. He's going to be fighting off takedowns the whole fight. His takedown
• 36:07
  defense is not great, not the most power. I think you would need
• 36:13
  to fight the perfect fight. Something would have to happen for him to hit
• 36:15
  the optimals. So I'm fading him in twenty and below. I think Maxim's
• 36:20
  interesting, obviously coming off very fifty nine point win DraftKings point win, but
• 36:28
  man, that matchup you look at it, Tyson Nam very great, good
• 36:30
  takedown defense, a lot of power, just a tough stylistic matchup in a
• 36:35
  debut, especially to score points. Charles Johnson's given up a lot of takedowns
• 36:39
  and a lot of fights. Maxim shot eleven. That fight looks to be
• 36:43
  a primary wrestler that'll change takedowns. I think this is a I'm going right
• 36:46
  back to him. I played a little, I know against Nam. I'm
• 36:50
  definitely playing this spot. Looks like a lot of upside and not too much
• 36:53
  ownership. So what's your take on this one? Yeah, I think that
• 36:58
  we are going to get ownership discount based on that UFC debut from Maxim,
• 37:04
  And that's kind of how I saw it in my head. Too. When
• 37:07
  I first saw this matchup, I was like, damn maximum eighty nine hundred
• 37:10
  dollars. I don't remember him not doing anything in his UFC debut. Kind
• 37:15
  of thought he lost the fight. Uh, definitely. I don't know how
• 37:17
  he won that fight. He's undefeated, so let's keep the undefeated wracker.
• 37:22
  But yeah, I would strock. You're getting doubled up on strikes by Tyson
• 37:27
  Nam, one of the lowest volume strikers in the UFC. That's not a
• 37:30
  good thing. And now you're facing a pretty high volume striker in Johnson.
• 37:34
  So I was like, man, if these guys are just trading volume,
• 37:36
  Johnson's gonna win on the cards. Maybe it'll be close again. But then
• 37:39
  I go back and I watched Maxim's older fights and like, this guy is
• 37:43
  good on the ground, he's slick with his takedown entries too, and Johnson's
• 37:46
  been taking down thirty one times in six UFC fights, Like this just seems
• 37:51
  like a clear bounce back spot for Maxim to go out there and possibly land
• 37:54
  eight takedowns in a decision win and score maybe one hundred and ten points.
• 37:59
  So I will take that discount on Maxim this week. I've talked myself into
• 38:04
  going overweight on him. I do think it will be close if he wants
• 38:07
  to keep this fight standing. I think he's a good striker. It's just
• 38:09
  that he wastes way too much time while he's standing, and if he does
• 38:13
  that here, he's gonna get out volumed again. So you got to go
• 38:16
  out there and wrestle, not only to look like a minus two thirty favorite,
• 38:20
  but to score well, you gotta go out there and wrestle or grapple.
• 38:23
  So I am going to be overweight on Maxim, but I agree with
• 38:29
  the Johnson side. I'm just gonna fade him. I think he's in play
• 38:31
  to maybe just out volume the fight, But if he is spending time on
• 38:35
  his back, I don't see any real ceiling for him. If he grinds
• 38:38
  out a close decision win, he might not even ten x. So overweight
• 38:43
  Maxim possible fade full fade Johnson lost up love that. Sorry about that sheets.
• 38:47
  He said he came in right for the Johnson fight talking leverage, not
• 38:52
  for us today, but hey, I'm actually curious if you are playing Charles
• 38:57
  Johnson. Didn't even expect you to go their sheets. I expected some pete
• 39:00
  Rodriguez. I don't know what else fading the main event, stuff like that,
• 39:04
  but I didn't know you'd be on the Charles Johnson side. And yes
• 39:07
  he did confirm. Still we rate at the top four percent. Ownership trapped,
• 39:12
  that's all Marley. I got no credit for that, So shout out
• 39:14
  you, big Marley. Ownership very big. All sports is important, very
• 39:17
  important with the MMA, of course, though, with how the with just
• 39:22
  how everything goes. Only thirteen fights, twenty six fighters had to head against
• 39:27
  each other. Ownership very important for handling dupes appreciate that. And yes,
• 39:30
  I was shaking my head right when I saw this comment. Missed by three
• 39:34
  pounds at one twenty nine because they give him that extra pound of cushion one
• 39:38
  twenty nine, three pound miss. I mean, man, that fight has
• 39:40
  to stay on right. Come on, man, Honestly, if we if
• 39:45
  we lose a fight, I'm okay losing that fight to be oh song Renko,
• 39:49
  Carolina, we need that for you. It's another bird by a first
• 39:52
  round Stoli Renko arm bar So I'm I'm kind of okay losing them. No,
• 39:57
  that's another pivot from that's another from the main event. We need thirteen
• 40:00
  fights yes, she knows what's good. Please please keep that on, all
• 40:06
  right, we'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card Mally McCanns Dianna
• 40:08
  Blbta the rematch from twenty nineteen McCann minus two sixty three Dana Blbita plus two
• 40:15
  to twenty three. Looking at the odds, plus one ninety five inside the
• 40:20
  distance or no plus one ninety five for this fight to finish inside the distance,
• 40:25
  all of the finish equity on the McCann side plus two thirty compared to
• 40:30
  Balbita at plus eight hundred. Ownership in this one meetball Mally thirty one percent
• 40:36
  and Balbita thirteen percent. I wouldn't be surprised if Balbita got a little more
• 40:42
  ownership due to her like floor volume, who she's around in the lower tier.
• 40:47
  Definitely could be wrong, but I went back and forth on this fight
• 40:51
  a good bit. I mean, Molly McCann looked absolutely cheeks last fight.
• 40:55
  I'll stall your enco. What does she have that armbar? She absolutely showed
• 40:59
  it against Molly McCann Blanchfield fight. No shame in that. I just don't
• 41:04
  know how good Molly McCann is though at this point in her career, what
• 41:07
  is the I mean minus two sixty three. There's no way you lay the
• 41:12
  juice on that. It's dogger pass on that way. But in terms of
• 41:15
  dfs, I mean we looked at her last fight. I think she scored
• 41:17
  one oh eight. If you go back in twenty nineteen, you get the
• 41:21
  draftings points, five takedowns, a lot of volume. I think she needs.
• 41:25
  Molly needs takedowns, I think to get the upside. Do you think
• 41:29
  she shoots and has success for him? And talk to me about Vita too,
• 41:31
  because I've been going back and forth on the whole fight. Seeah,
• 41:35
  I I'm actually picking Belbita to win here. Yeah, but when I was
• 41:39
  hand building lineups, I was just rarely getting to her, even though I'm
• 41:44
  picking her to win. So I just feel like she's got to be low
• 41:45
  owned. Because I also don't think she has much of a ceiling. I
• 41:50
  think her ceiling is kind of capped in the eighties range. I mean at
• 41:52
  sixty nine hundred in the eighties, probably gonna get you there still, But
• 41:57
  I don't know. Man. Like I said, I think every underdog on
• 41:59
  this car is live, and if they all somehow ended up winning, I
• 42:02
  don't think she scores top six in the underdog so I'm still gonna keep the
• 42:08
  ownership low on her, but I probably personally will be closer in the twenty
• 42:12
  percent range. And I just see this fight being more of a striking match
• 42:15
  than the last fight, and I think it's a really close fight on the
• 42:20
  feet. I do give the overall edge to Molly based on takedowns because of
• 42:25
  their last fight. She definitely did her best work once she landed the takedowns
• 42:30
  and she really dominated Belbita on the ground, but they were twenty pounds heavier
• 42:35
  back then or ten whatever, they were ten pounds heavier, and I just
• 42:39
  don't know that that same success is going to be there at this point in
• 42:43
  her career, after she's got dominated twice in a row, now she's dropping
• 42:47
  weight classes for the first time. I don't know. I mean, I
• 42:52
  just the line is what talked me into this. I feel like, you
• 42:53
  give me a pick a line, I'll pick Molly to win more often than
• 42:57
  not, but it'd be closer to like sixty percent of the time something like
• 43:00
  that. So the line talked me into Belbta to win a close split decision
• 43:07
  here. But on DraftKings. I don't know that that's gonna do her a
• 43:09
  whole lot of good, especially if she does spend any time on her back,
• 43:13
  because if she goes out there, let's give her the win. In
• 43:15
  their last fight, she would have won, scored seventy eight points. If
• 43:19
  I told you she's gonna score seventy eight points here, how much exposure would
• 43:22
  you want? If she's thirteen percent and you tell me she's scoring seventy eight
• 43:28
  points, I'd probably have like fifteen percent. Yeah, see, And that's
• 43:31
  that's kind of what I'm thinking, is she probably scores a little bit more
• 43:35
  than seventy eight. I would if I gave her like an exact projection in
• 43:38
  a win, I would probably say she scores like eighty two points something like
• 43:42
  that. And I mean, I'm cool with it at sixty nine hundred,
• 43:45
  but I just think that add it underdogs who can win and have higher ceilings.
• 43:49
  Yeah, it's had this fight's halfway through the card. You wouldn't be
• 43:52
  mad if you got eighty two s sixty nine hundred. Definitely aren't mad.
• 43:54
  But why I'm at bezo sport where it's optimal or boss pretty much like usually
• 43:59
  there's even if there isn't the payoffs structures are so crazy it's first or last.
• 44:04
  I mean at most sports I guess are now, especially MMA though,
• 44:07
  So that's why we're saying like seventy eight. Of course, you take that
• 44:10
  in cash games, you take that in pretty much any tournament, but flagship,
• 44:15
  is that enough for the optimal that's to be determined on. The more
• 44:17
  fights, the more bigger scores you need, and the closer the line fights
• 44:22
  are usually the bigger scores you need. Because how DraftKings algorithm is is they
• 44:27
  won't price anyone the same price. It's like, no one's gonna be eighty
• 44:30
  three hundred twice unless like there's late notice replacements, et cetera. So that
• 44:34
  means the money line odds if they're all closely lined fights, if every thirteen
• 44:38
  fight was minus one twenty, they had to put someone all the way down
• 44:42
  at seven k. Like that's just how they do it. Where it's FanDuel,
• 44:45
  they can have multiple people at sixteen dollars, eighteen dollars, et cetera.
• 44:49
  The only problem is you bake the flag ship, you only win eighteen
• 44:52
  dollars is your first place prize. But I do like FanDuel, and they
• 44:55
  take into consideration the five rounds over there as well, the under dog in
• 45:00
  the five round fight. Even if they're plus four hundred, it still might
• 45:04
  be fifteen bucks, whereas there's eleven dollars people that have better money line nods.
• 45:08
  So little tangent there. But that is why going back to the original
• 45:13
  points, Albita seventy eight points, you definitely take it. It might not
• 45:16
  be optimal, though, I think she has a little more upside though,
• 45:20
  Like I think if Albta wins, Molly just might be completely washed. And
• 45:24
  I'm waiting for it. Albta is only twenty seven years old, Like,
• 45:29
  what does she got takedowns? Like, yeah, I think she's kind of
• 45:32
  live for like a takedown or two. I don't think she would do a
• 45:36
  lot with it, whereas I think Molly could actually stay in top patrol and
• 45:39
  land a lot of strikes and really add up, where I don't think Belbita
• 45:43
  has that same type of you know, ground game ceiling in her. But
• 45:46
  I also kind of picked Belbita. I mostly think it stays on the feet,
• 45:51
  just back and forth, almost a coin flip type of striking match.
• 45:53
  But I also think that Molly just feeds off the crowd, and this one's
• 45:58
  at the Apex. There is no real crowd there. She's not in London
• 46:00
  with everyone chanting her name here, and I don't know that that we're going
• 46:04
  to get the same hype and aggressiveness, especially if she's not believing in herself
• 46:07
  at this point. So the line is what talked me into it. But
• 46:10
  I do think this is a lot closer to a pick and fight than it
• 46:14
  is a blowout for Mally. So uh at thirty though, you think I'm
• 46:21
  too high there, No, I think that maybe it's high twenties. You're
• 46:27
  I think it's pretty close. I mean minus two sixty three is one of
• 46:30
  the biggest favorites on the card. I think she is probably higher room than
• 46:34
  Silva because that two hundred discount. Maybe maybe high twenties, I think it
• 46:40
  is. I don't even know what I want to do with her, because
• 46:45
  again, I'm really worried this money line's too wide. I'm worried that she
• 46:49
  might be a little over the hill. But if she can go for takedowns
• 46:52
  and like that's all she's done in the camp already fought a couple of years
• 46:54
  ago, takedowns were free, stay in top control, do some damage,
• 46:59
  et cetera. Uh. I mean we know DraftKings, takedowns and top control
• 47:02
  can definitely add up in a fight like that. So now I think the
• 47:06
  ownership is probably fine, if anything, maybe a little little lower. I'm
• 47:10
  gonna play some. I'm gonna play some belbita. I don't have a hot
• 47:14
  take on this fight though. Yeah, I'm guessing I'm like around twenties on
• 47:17
  both of them. Yeah, No, I think that's probably something like I'll
• 47:22
  be doing as well next fight on the car keep it rolling. Still got
• 47:24
  what six fights? Something like that? Forty five minutes in. Appreciate everyone
• 47:30
  hanging out as always, Gilbert of being a Charles racky. This one should
• 47:34
  be a fun one. Minus two to two for Orbina and we're again I'm
• 47:37
  going fight odds dot io at that online is the odds that I keep saying
• 47:43
  and pulling. Always make sure to pray shop fight I odds dot Io.
• 47:46
  Very good job, very easy layout to see where the best line is fights
• 47:52
  minus one eighty to finish or being a plus one thirty inside the distance radkey
• 47:57
  plus two forty Looking at the pricing in this one, nine k for Beina,
• 48:00
  seventy two, one hundred for Radkey, and ownership twenty eight for being
• 48:05
  a twelve for Radkey. I hope that ownership stays because I'm gonna be overweight
• 48:10
  on this fight. At that ownership, I'll probably be overweight on both.
• 48:15
  I mean, or being as a fun fighter throws a lot of volume.
• 48:17
  Can Nixon takedowns Radkey. Awful performance last time against Blood Diamond, but before
• 48:23
  that, before the USC, he was in some fun fights salad striker.
• 48:29
  I think this could be a pretty high pace. I like targeting Gilbert or
• 48:31
  Beina fights look good to me, last fight coming into his own I'm picking
• 48:36
  the favorites, but man, I mean, I'm gonna play some Charles Radkey
• 48:38
  down there at twelve percent be overweight, so give me some optimal performance.
• 48:44
  Or Beina is the pick though, and I like him quite a bit in
• 48:45
  the supper tier. Yeah, I'm picking Urbina as well. I just think
• 48:51
  he is the the more skilled fighter everywhere from what I've seen. I think
• 48:54
  he's the better striker, and I think he's got an even bigger edge with
• 48:58
  his grappling. Probably the better wrestler as well, but he's also the guy
• 49:06
  that seems like a much better hammer than he is a nail. Like if
• 49:08
  things start going bad for her being, I think they just start to get
• 49:12
  worse. And Radke's a live dog for seventy two hundred and the longer this
• 49:17
  goes, the more success he could start to have, and he could really
• 49:21
  start to pile on points late in this fight. So I think that he's
• 49:24
  in play just for those reasons as a live dog. Maybe he even loses
• 49:28
  the first round, comes back wins the second and third, but I think
• 49:31
  he probably scores around seventy five eighty points something like that if he wins.
• 49:36
  I don't see a huge ceiling for him unless he is able, unless he's
• 49:38
  just a better fighter, unless I'm wrong and he's not in Urbina is not
• 49:42
  the more skilled fighter. But I think Urbina comes out there and wins the
• 49:46
  first round, and who knows if he can continue the success in the second
• 49:51
  and the third. But yeah, I thought he looked great in his last
• 49:53
  fight, where I thought Radkey didn't look very good at all. And now
• 49:58
  it's a tougher matchup for Urbina. Who knows if it's easier or tougher,
• 50:01
  I mean, sorry, tougher for Radke, who knows if it's easier or
• 50:05
  tougher for Urbina here. Yeah, I man, what I saw on film,
• 50:07
  I liked Urbina. I just don't love nine K. I'm fine with
• 50:13
  it. But if like you're telling me it's him or Grimbo ownership doesn't matter,
• 50:16
  I would think Garimbo in a win, of course outscores them. But
• 50:21
  I'm picking Urbina to win and I'm picking Grimbo to lose. So like you
• 50:23
  would think I should be higher on Urbina here, I don't know. I
• 50:27
  don't know what I'm gonna do with the Urbina side. I haven't done my
• 50:30
  lineups yet. When I was handbuilding, I wasn't getting really much Urbina,
• 50:35
  but I ended up uh withdrawing every single hand bit lineup I had because I
• 50:39
  was like, fuck, I have dough Urbina, I have no Stoli Ornko.
• 50:43
  I was like, this is screwed. I just kind of go do
• 50:45
  one fifty on the solver. So I'll be doing that after the podcast.
• 50:47
  But yeah, I'm guessing maybe you'll talk me into getting more Urbina here,
• 50:51
  I guess. But yeah, I'm fine with thirty to forty percent, maybe
• 50:55
  even more Urbina. But the Radkey side, like I don't. I don't
• 51:00
  hate it, but I just like so many other underdogs more where I think
• 51:05
  I gotta cap his ownership probably at like twenty percent something like that. Yeah,
• 51:09
  A fair play to all that. I want to touch on this because
• 51:12
  it kind of talks about what you said. I would not be surprised if
• 51:15
  Grimma came in fifty percent and mc cann was like twenty five and he just
• 51:19
  got that pivot up or got that ownership up there and got the steam.
• 51:22
  I would not be surprised about that at all, I know, or being
• 51:25
  a won't get I mean too too much steam. Yeah, I mean he
• 51:30
  can mix in takedowns. See like, he very well could be better wherever
• 51:32
  the fight goes. He's definitely gonna be lower on than Grimba. I do
• 51:37
  want to piggyback off of one thing you said, though, you go,
• 51:39
  I'm picking. I'm I like or being in a win and I like Grimbo
• 51:44
  to lose. But you're saying that you like Grimbo more in DFS, and
• 51:49
  that's how I think about it. In MMA DFS two pretty much we do
• 51:52
  with the taste study. I have takes on fights, I picked fighters,
• 51:55
  et cetera. At the end of the day, though I do trust books
• 51:59
  and lines a lot. They're very efficient. They take a lot of money.
• 52:01
  I'm wrong plenty of plenty of times. I like targeting. Of course,
• 52:06
  ownership is always important in my process, trying to limit dukes, but
• 52:08
  I like targeting fights. I like this fight. I will play both sides.
• 52:13
  Winner of Grimbo Pete Rodriguez, Marley said scores well. So even if
• 52:16
  he doesn't like Grimbo or he's picking Pete Rodriguez, you still play Grimbo because
• 52:22
  if he wins, you think he scores really well. I like this fight.
• 52:24
  If Radky does win, I think he scores pretty well, and he's
• 52:28
  thirteen percent at plus two forty inside the distance, Like just those props alone
• 52:32
  in that ownership are gonna put me on him, and I think are beating
• 52:36
  makes it a fun fight. So just because I don't like or I don't
• 52:39
  like Radkey, I think he loses, I'm gonna be overweight because I think
• 52:43
  if he does win, when he wins, he can score well at this
• 52:46
  ownership. So just a little broad slay overview. I know beatle bays,
• 52:51
  some people might be playing MMA for the first time, and everyone takes stuff
• 52:54
  differently. There's people I respect out there that'll pick every single fight. Actually
• 53:00
  some people do this, I guess, but every single fight they x out
• 53:02
  all the other fighters and try and build combinations, et cetera. That's not
• 53:07
  necessarily me. I like targeting fights I think will score well more than I'm
• 53:10
  gonna make a twelve team parlay. I know who's gonna win every fight.
• 53:14
  Then one of them loses, I'm stone dead. So there's my rant right
• 53:19
  there. We'll keep it rolling on the next fight. Alice Kiev Kizriov taking
• 53:25
  on Macma Murdov Kiriov minus one forty six Murdov plus one twenty six. Seen
• 53:31
  a line of line movement in this one. Kids of open minus two twenty
• 53:35
  five got bought down right away to the Murdov side, and so what Kizriov
• 53:44
  back to Murdov, back to Kizriov. And it's been slowly steadily coming down
• 53:50
  on the Murdoff side. Who's taking a lot of money, especially these past
• 53:52
  couple of days. So I'll throw it right to you. This is the
• 53:55
  most mispriced fight on the card eighty eight hundred and seventy four hundred. But
• 54:00
  Stoyorenko is a bigger favorite at eighty two hundred, then Kizriov is at eighty
• 54:06
  eight hundred. I think that has to keep ownership down. We have kids,
• 54:10
  you of twenty four percent, and where is Murdov twenty four percent as
• 54:15
  well? I think that is I think that's right because I Murdov, I
• 54:19
  think is just gonna get moneyline value ownership. I mean, people are gonna
• 54:23
  see plus one twenty five at seventy four hundred in a fight that's supposed to
• 54:27
  finish play him one of the more popular underdogs KISSERIV I wasn't so sure of,
• 54:32
  but at his inside the distance prop his style of fighting and stuff,
• 54:37
  I do think he does get some even though bad bad win odds for the
• 54:40
  price. I like Kizreev. I like at this ownership if they're the same
• 54:45
  ownership, I like Kizrev more because I think his wrestling, his grappling.
• 54:49
  I think the upsides better on that side, where Murdov could win a striking
• 54:53
  decision and score seventy five. So Kidzrev for me, Yeah, murd I'm
• 55:00
  definitely gonna get some ownership, though, how do you see it? So?
• 55:04
  Yeah, this this was a tough one. Like breaking down the fight,
• 55:07
  I really like Hisriev style. I always like the guys who want to
• 55:12
  get the fight to the ground, who are gonna chain wrestle to try and
• 55:15
  get it there, and who have finishing upside once they're there, and that's
• 55:20
  Kiriev. But my issue is that he's really like a one to seventy fighter
• 55:25
  and he's not fighting up at one eighty five. He's also only fought,
• 55:30
  I believe, three times since twenty eighteen, and I just don't trust this
• 55:35
  guy, like I don't know, I don't know what the hell he's been
• 55:39
  doing. I don't know what his game plan is gonna be. I don't
• 55:42
  know if he has cardio to go out there and wrestle for three full rounds.
• 55:45
  There's just a lot of question marks on the Kizriev side. So I
• 55:47
  was like talk. I was trying to talk myself into an underdog bet on
• 55:52
  Murderdov because I do think Murdov he's gonna be the bigger guy. I think
• 55:57
  he's gonna have a clear striking advantage. I think he's the more dangerous striker
• 56:00
  in every round, and he also has some wrestling upside himself. He like
• 56:05
  broke the slate last time when you said he'd go out there put the wrestling
• 56:07
  shoes on. I think I was gonna fade him, and you talked me
• 56:09
  into getting some more Murdov ownership. I mean, I don't think I won
• 56:13
  on that card, but it helped me at least not lose as much,
• 56:15
  I'm sure, But I just don't see Murdov landing more than a couple of
• 56:19
  takedowns here. And I think it would be more so because Kiri have already
• 56:22
  gassed out or something like that. But for DFS, with all this line
• 56:28
  movement moving to Murdov, had that not happened, I probably would have put
• 56:31
  him at like sixteen percent ownership, and then Kiri have at like thirty five
• 56:37
  percent ownership something like that. And then I've kind of just met in the
• 56:42
  middle as the line moved, and I kind of see it. I like
• 56:47
  it more the other way. I would rather be heavier on Kizriev. Give
• 56:51
  me thirty five plus percent on the guy who's gonna go out there look to
• 56:54
  wrestle, and if he does win the fight, it's gonna really come through
• 56:59
  the ground and that's gonna score well on DraftKings. So the upside puts me
• 57:02
  on Kizriev really on DFS, like I'm not laying that juice for a bet,
• 57:07
  but I really like him on DFS. And then on the other side,
• 57:10
  like, I don't want to get completely burned, so I want some
• 57:13
  Murdov exposure and he could finish Kizriev in any round. But now that the
• 57:17
  ownership's up to like twenty four percent, I don't want to quite go that
• 57:21
  high, so maybe I go eighteen fifteen to eighteen something like that. I
• 57:25
  don't want to get completely burned, but I do plan on going underweight murd
• 57:30
  Of overweight kids, Reev give me Kiriev to be the fifth person to submit
• 57:34
  Murdof. I literally everything you pretty much said on locksap with I love it.
• 57:38
  I've been your ownership spot on. I prefer the kids. You're a
• 57:42
  side like you. I'm not gonna full fade Murdof. Again, it's a
• 57:45
  thirteen fight card, so we're talking chalk Dog at twenty four percent, which
• 57:50
  is true, but you can find plenty of ways on a thirteen fight card
• 57:53
  to get different. And again, I'll be underweight on the main event.
• 57:58
  I'm not fading it. I'll be underweight though. If you don't play any
• 58:00
  of the main event fighter and leave a couple hundred bucks. You can eat
• 58:02
  plenty of chalk in some spots there, just get one spot to be different,
• 58:07
  etc. So Yeah, I prefer the kiser of side. I think
• 58:09
  you had a very good breakdown on that four fights left Vivian or No.
• 58:15
  Sometimes they got the dog listed first come on man Ntealia Silva Vivian Arujo minus
• 58:21
  three fifty five. Is Silva the biggest favorite on the card and the highest
• 58:24
  price fighter Arujo plus two ninety. On the way back, we got Silva
• 58:30
  plus two ten inside the distance and Arujo plus eight hundred. Looking at these
• 58:37
  pricing ninety five hundred against Silva at sixty seven hundred Vivian twenty one ownership for
• 58:42
  Silva ten for Vivian sounds right to me. What is your thoughts in this
• 58:46
  fight again? Plus one eighty five to finish. Yeah, I'll be sure
• 58:51
  on this one and the next one. These are my two least favorite DraftKings
• 58:54
  fights on the card. Silva, I mean, she looks like the real
• 58:58
  deal. She could be the future of this division, but this is the
• 59:04
  toughest matchup for her yet and I don't think that she really warrants the line,
• 59:09
  and I think she has to get a finish really to pay off a
• 59:14
  ninety five hundred dollars price tag in this matchup, because I think the Rajo
• 59:17
  is probably the better wrestler of the two, and she's also the more powerful
• 59:22
  one punch striker as well, I think, but Silva is just the more
• 59:28
  well rounded striker, the faster striker, probably higher volume. She's got the
• 59:31
  nastier grappling. I think, like off of her back, she's got a
• 59:35
  lot of arm bars on the regional scene, so I think Silva just has
• 59:38
  more ways to win. I think it's kind of a change into the ships
• 59:43
  where Rajo was getting her title shots and now Silva's on her way to getting
• 59:46
  hers. I just don't want to pay ninety five hundred dollars for a girl
• 59:50
  I don't feel good about winning. We've got plus one eighty five that this
• 59:53
  fight ends inside the distance. I mean that's not great. That's saying that
• 59:57
  it's like a seventy percent chance that this fight all three rounds, and if
• 1:00:00
  you tell me it for sure goes all three rounds, Silva for sure wins.
• 1:00:05
  I don't think she's really got any chance at the optimum lineup, so
• 1:00:07
  I probably fade Silva. Maybe she'd go out there and get a finish and
• 1:00:12
  score well with high volume leading up to it, but I'd rather take my
• 1:00:15
  chances elsewhere. And I put her at like twenty one percent. I feel
• 1:00:20
  like that could even be high, but something about just being the highest priced
• 1:00:23
  fighter. People are never gonna die away from that, especially when she is
• 1:00:28
  like the biggest favorite on the car too, So I put her higher than
• 1:00:31
  I have any chances of getting. Personally, there's no way I'm getting plus
• 1:00:37
  twenty percent or more. Silva probably just x her out give me Silva to
• 1:00:42
  win. But she scores sixty seven points something like that. And if you
• 1:00:45
  told me I have to use this fight in a lineup, I guess I'd
• 1:00:49
  rather just use Araujo as completely unowned, because I do think she's very live
• 1:00:52
  here. She could possibly like her real upside would be landing a big shot
• 1:00:57
  and knocking this girl out, but she could have good volume to it,
• 1:01:00
  mix in two three takedowns along the way and score eighty five points at sixty
• 1:01:05
  seven hundred dollars. I think she probably has a higher ceiling than bel Beta,
• 1:01:08
  but bel Beta is more likely to win outside that makes sense. I'm
• 1:01:14
  more so I have this fight is bull fade, and then I went silva
• 1:01:16
  underweights. I'm still fading. Vivian, like twenty percent, is the biggest
• 1:01:22
  favorite on the card. On a card, I do expect dogs to come
• 1:01:24
  through, so I'm not too worried about salary. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:01:29
  I hope you're hoping for a finish, no doubt about that. I like
• 1:01:31
  plenty of other people in the upper tier more. But as their ownership is
• 1:01:35
  the biggest favorite, she's a way to get different. I think she's fine,
• 1:01:38
  but again I'll be capping her ownership. I'll be playing No. Vivian,
• 1:01:43
  you said this in the next fight of your least two favor fights,
• 1:01:45
  pretty much loss that pier. We'll get right into this one. No thank
• 1:01:49
  you for me. Randy Brown Muslim Salakov minus two sixty for Brown Muslim plus
• 1:01:53
  two twenty on the way back his fights plus one hundred flip the coin baby
• 1:02:00
  actually minus one oh five nowadays slipping a coin plus one hundred to finish,
• 1:02:02
  plus one ninety five inside the distance for Brown Salakov plus three fifty. This
• 1:02:08
  fight was supposed to take place in December. UFC two ninety six. Brown
• 1:02:13
  Out rescheduled. Now head is a fight fade. Initially, I'm fight fading
• 1:02:17
  this one again. Man, I like others in the range of Randy Brown,
• 1:02:22
  more up top was in Salakov low volume. He has power. Think
• 1:02:25
  this fight stays on the feed, Randy Brown chips away and probably wins a
• 1:02:29
  decision. So yeah, no thanks to me. We're already over an hour
• 1:02:32
  talking about fights. But a lot of that was because the first four fights
• 1:02:37
  I told my whole plan main event, I'll be underweight. First four fights
• 1:02:40
  a lot lower own, same pricing the mid tier. Hopefully some of those
• 1:02:45
  are optimal. Randy Brown not gonna be one I get to in the upper
• 1:02:47
  tier. No, thanks to Salakov, easy pasy for me. How do
• 1:02:51
  you see it? Yeah, I just agree. I think Randy Brown probably
• 1:02:54
  just points point fights his way to a decision win here. I think Salakov
• 1:03:00
  would be my preferred play if I had to use this fight though, because
• 1:03:04
  at seventy one hundred dollars, I think he could break the slate with the
• 1:03:07
  first round spinning something knockout, Whereas if Randy Brown gets a first round knockout,
• 1:03:14
  he's got a good chance at the optimum but he's not a lock for
• 1:03:16
  it. He still has to compete with all these other people that could score
• 1:03:19
  one hundred plus points. So Brown's going to be a fade for me for
• 1:03:22
  that reason. In his last four wins he has, they've all been in
• 1:03:29
  the seventies, and I feel like we're probably gonna get that. Here.
• 1:03:30
  Give me a seventy point win at ninety one hundred dollars, I want zero
• 1:03:34
  of it, So give me Brown to win and just not score enough.
• 1:03:37
  And since I'm picking Brown to win, I don't think Salakov has any way
• 1:03:42
  to score either unless he gets a finish. But if he does somehow win
• 1:03:45
  a decision, he might be able to score close to ten x. I
• 1:03:49
  just like too many other underdogs on the car, so I'll be exing both
• 1:03:52
  sides out. Even with one hundred and fifty lineups, I think, Oh
• 1:03:54
  love that. I don't know if I'll do it one fifty twenty in last
• 1:03:58
  definitely, but Marley's got some stones on for sure. Two fights left on
• 1:04:00
  the card. Again, Marley, if you can try and find a winner
• 1:04:03
  and look for that, we appreciate it. In the meantime, thumbs up
• 1:04:06
  helps us out A ton Subscribe helps us out a ton and if you do
• 1:04:10
  want to join us at chipination dot com, get in the m M A
• 1:04:14
  streets this week, the Gulf Streets, NBA of course, Big Slay today,
• 1:04:18
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• 1:04:21
  better time though, shipination dot com weekly, monthly, six months and annual
• 1:04:27
  packages and again we are giving away right here there we go. You want
• 1:04:30
  to read it off? Marley got Michael Peterson so he can move his new
• 1:04:35
  granddaughter to a state other than Idaho where DFS goes to die. Uh so,
• 1:04:40
  Michael Peterson, let me see what's he gotta do? Email to take
• 1:04:43
  a picture of YouTube, Michael Peterson, or email info all right in here
• 1:04:47
  for your info at ship at nation dot com. Email that right there,
• 1:04:56
  info at schipinnation dot com. Michael Peterson, the picture of your YouTube.
• 1:05:00
  Say you want it? You got a month from our man, Primetime.
• 1:05:03
  DFS shutouts you Primetime. Very nice of you. Make sure to get in
• 1:05:08
  the discord as well. The monthly does come with that. What's going on?
• 1:05:12
  Nickel? And I do see your picture baby and new two fights left
• 1:05:16
  We're not to Mokano Drew Dover minus one eighty eight for Mokano plus one sixty
• 1:05:21
  three for Drew Dover. Looking at the odds in this fight, it is
• 1:05:26
  minus three twenty five to finish Mokano plus one hundred inside the distance Drew Dover
• 1:05:30
  plus one seventy five. Terms of pricing and ownership in this one, we
• 1:05:35
  got Mokano eighty four hundred at thirty seven percent, which is the fourth highest
• 1:05:40
  owned fighter on the card. Drew Dover twenty seven percent at seventy eight hundred.
• 1:05:45
  So this is I've been going back and forth on picking this one.
• 1:05:48
  I think it's a great fight. I like both guys for sure. At
• 1:05:51
  minus one ninety, I went with Dover as the dog at dog money.
• 1:05:57
  But it's kind of like what you said earlier in the week stoly Rnko fight.
• 1:06:00
  I still like we're not to Moicano more in dfs, even at this
• 1:06:04
  ownership, because I think Drew con Drew can definitely crack him in round one
• 1:06:09
  and knock him out and win that way. But if this fight even a
• 1:06:12
  Dover third round knockout or decision, Dover win stuff in the takedowns, et
• 1:06:16
  cetera. I see pass where that isn't enough, especially on dogs we expect
• 1:06:20
  dogs to win and score well. So I like I'll be playing some Dover.
• 1:06:26
  I think he's fine, and I do like his plus money. But
• 1:06:30
  Mokano, if he wins, man, how's he not optimal? It's kind
• 1:06:32
  of how I see it, like he's gonna be looking for takedowns when he's
• 1:06:36
  on the Matt Dober can't get submitted, but Kano a solid striker. Two,
• 1:06:42
  I don't know. I think Macanno either gets some of the mat,
• 1:06:44
  finishes him and he scores well, or Dover stuffs it for the most part,
• 1:06:47
  maybe knocks him out, but maybe he doesn't score well. So at
• 1:06:53
  this money line, I'm on the dog in terms of DFS, though I
• 1:06:57
  like Moicano more. How do you see it well? I mean, I
• 1:07:01
  love this fight. I love both sides of this fight. I'm gonna be
• 1:07:03
  super heavy on this fight. It's close to all in. I think we
• 1:07:06
  most likely get a submission from Moui Kano or a knockout from Dober. But
• 1:07:11
  I'm kind of the opposite where I could see Mooi Kano winning and not making
• 1:07:15
  the optimal, where I don't see Dober winning and not being on the optimal.
• 1:07:19
  I mean, he's never scored less than eighty in a win. But
• 1:07:24
  I think if Dober wins, it means he's really piecing up Movie Kano on
• 1:07:27
  the feet, and I don't think Movie Kano has the chin to be able
• 1:07:30
  to deal with that. So if Dober is winning, I think he wins
• 1:07:34
  by knocking him out at some point, whereas if he doesn't knock out Mui
• 1:07:39
  Kano, I think Movie Kano is out there live to win in a striking
• 1:07:42
  match. He is a good point fighter. I think he could keep it
• 1:07:45
  on the outside land some leg kicks, but that is how he would not
• 1:07:48
  make the optimal lineup because he just keeps his fight on the feet for too
• 1:07:51
  long because his ceiling is all on the ground. Whether it's a first round
• 1:07:57
  or second round submission, or he goes out there acts up eight takedowns in
• 1:08:00
  a decision win. Either of those are gonna put him, you know,
• 1:08:03
  one hundred plus points. So I'm cool with both sides, but I'm not
• 1:08:09
  gonna be one hundred percent all in based on that. It's really the Jeremy
• 1:08:13
  Stevens fight with Mui Kano. It was a long time ago, but it's
• 1:08:15
  kind of a similar matchup where you're you're just afraid of Steven's power ending the
• 1:08:20
  fight like that, But skill wise, you can hang strike for strike.
• 1:08:25
  But I just think if it's going Dover's way, he's gonna he's going down
• 1:08:28
  because Dover has serious power, a huge chin. Mouviikano has never knocked anybody
• 1:08:31
  out, but I am gonna pick Mui Kano to win by submission. I
• 1:08:36
  just think he does have more ways to win the fight, and if he's
• 1:08:40
  smart, he goes out there and looks for takedowns early. But I'm completely
• 1:08:44
  fine having more exposure or even having Dober in my single entry, especially if
• 1:08:48
  I really need six hundred dollars to help my lineup out somewhere else. So
• 1:08:53
  this is a fight that I probably would have put Mui Kano on my core
• 1:08:57
  plays over at ship at nation dot com. I left him off of it
• 1:09:00
  because I would completely be fine with Dober on that core play list as well,
• 1:09:03
  so I put three other people. You guys can go over there check
• 1:09:05
  it out. You get all sports for one price, so no reason not
• 1:09:09
  too. We've been crushing all sports best discord in the industry. But I
• 1:09:13
  got three other plays on there, and it's just gonna be a fight that
• 1:09:15
  I target heavily. I love it. I absolutely love it. Yeah,
• 1:09:18
  I mean Mui Kana with the Phys fight as well. He was hanging in
• 1:09:21
  there. He's he's a good striker, He's very good on the mat like
• 1:09:25
  he's a well rounded fighter for sure, the rightful favorite. I think as
• 1:09:29
  well. Dober's game is gonna be a great fight for sure. We got
• 1:09:32
  one fight left, main event, Todd Big Marley, I know you got
• 1:09:35
  to run about five minutes. Main event for me, I'll keep it pretty
• 1:09:39
  short and sweet. Master the Imobov Roman de LEDs A minus one seventy one.
• 1:09:44
  Imavah plus one forty six is the leeds A. This fight's minus two
• 1:09:47
  twenty five to finish imavah plus one forty five inside the distance the leeds A
• 1:09:53
  plus one seventy five. So I've hinted at a lot again. Oh for
• 1:09:57
  pricing and ownership too. Imovov six hundred forty one percent, dealeds A seventy
• 1:10:02
  six hundred at forty two percent. So I talked about my reasoning, I'm
• 1:10:06
  gonna be underweight on this fight. A. The first thing is I was
• 1:10:10
  going back and forth on who I even think was gonna win. I still
• 1:10:14
  don't even really know who I'm confident in. As far as the next reason,
• 1:10:18
  the more fights I talked about it earlier, the more bigger scores you
• 1:10:21
  need, the more optimal to be on the optimal. We have four fights
• 1:10:26
  that are all pretty much half the ownership in that mid tier around this pricing.
• 1:10:30
  All four of those fights are slightly favored to finish all at half the
• 1:10:34
  ownership. We play ownership game, a dupe game, et cetera. I
• 1:10:39
  think being underweight on this main event, hoping some of these other of the
• 1:10:43
  twelve fights can outscore this one, and I can't see it. Imobob four
• 1:10:47
  point five significant strikes per minute, de Leeds a in the threes. I
• 1:10:51
  don't think really any of these two wrestle. Much like I don't think Delis
• 1:10:56
  has too much success, I don't think Imobob does so if they don't get
• 1:10:59
  clar Leeds has got power, Imavov with the volume advantage. But I can
• 1:11:02
  see this and I am picking it. I'm saying imovah by decision, and
• 1:11:06
  if that's the case, I don't want this fight really so forty percent on
• 1:11:12
  both I'm not full fading. I always want to make sure if I have
• 1:11:15
  forty percent of Dalits I'll probably have like twenty percent or less of Ima Bob
• 1:11:19
  overall underweight on this fight, using the first four fights as pivots, I
• 1:11:24
  prefer to leeds A to Ima Bob if I had to pick, just because
• 1:11:29
  if either wins a decision, leeds had seventy six hundred has a better chance
• 1:11:32
  than imovov A's eighty six hundred to get there. So yeah, I'll be
• 1:11:36
  underweight. Take it away though for us, Yeah, I think I'm gonna
• 1:11:42
  I'll be over I don't know about overweight. I'll just be heavy on the
• 1:11:45
  fight. I think it's my third favorite fight on the card to target,
• 1:11:50
  but it's because they're right there, kind of in the mid range eight point
• 1:11:55
  six K and seven point six K. Neither one of them are too hard
• 1:11:58
  to afford, and we have about a seventy percent chance that this fight ends
• 1:12:01
  inside the distance, and either one of those guys could finish. But I
• 1:12:06
  do think Dolidse has more finishing equity, especially in that first and second round
• 1:12:11
  when that bonus really matters. I think he's the more dangerous striker early,
• 1:12:16
  and I think he's the more dangerous grappler as well. But throughout the course
• 1:12:20
  of twenty five minutes. I think either one of them could land like two
• 1:12:25
  to five takedowns, which would help in their decision score, but that that
• 1:12:30
  would be what makes it not on the optimal lineup. It goes all five
• 1:12:34
  rounds, and it could really be either the guy that KNACKO when that gets
• 1:12:40
  there. I even think a third round knockout, like we've seen some main
• 1:12:43
  events go eighty four or eighty five true when it is multiple true. But
• 1:12:47
  I ended up putting it as a five star because I'm taking the underdog to
• 1:12:51
  win. I just think Dolitz could get a finish really in any round.
• 1:12:57
  But it's one of those where I think Imavo's probably the one out a little
• 1:13:00
  bit higher volume, but Delieds's landing the harder shots that mean more. And
• 1:13:04
  what are the judges like, I have no freaking idea, So give me
• 1:13:08
  the guy with the plus money next to their name. So I took Deleds
• 1:13:12
  for that reason, But I think he's gonna get a finish at some point.
• 1:13:16
  I if he gets to the fourth and fifth round. I don't really
• 1:13:18
  know who slows down more, but I feel like something about im I'm not
• 1:13:24
  Immova something about Delize lately just is making me want to pick him here,
• 1:13:28
  and I kind of thought he almost won that victory fight to be with you,
• 1:13:31
  and this is a weird one, but I feel like I've always picked
• 1:13:33
  against Deleds and I've always picked Imovov to win, So I don't know why
• 1:13:39
  I'm really switching my pick here. I think it's it's just the line that
• 1:13:41
  talked me into it, to be honest with you, but I'm fine with
• 1:13:44
  either one of them. I do think we're gonna get more than ten X
• 1:13:46
  from the winner, and I do think that a hundred points is possibly more
• 1:13:50
  likely than them hitting less than ten X. But I'll be I'll probably have
• 1:13:57
  eighty five percent of my lineup s having this fight. Yeah, no,
• 1:14:00
  that makes sense. It's definitely hot. Take going underweight, just the stands.
• 1:14:03
  I'll be taken on this car. But I hear you with the lidsday.
• 1:14:06
  I was in Austin, Texas when he fought a couple of years back
• 1:14:10
  Kyle Dawkas, and he walked out man, a man possessed. I think
• 1:14:14
  I told his story. I'll never forget, like the look into his eyes.
• 1:14:16
  Everything since then, I'm he be But Torri he hasn't lost a fight.
• 1:14:20
  I'm like something flip for this dude, so I wouldn't be surprised,
• 1:14:24
  and I will be cheering for Deldsday. That's Marley's alarm. He's probably got
• 1:14:27
  to go pick up the kid. Everything will be up on the site right
• 1:14:30
  after this show. Projections, ownership, fight rankings, et cetera. Shout
• 1:14:34
  out Primetime DFS for the membership again the winner, reach out to info at
• 1:14:41
  ship in nation dot com. Weekly, monthly, six month, annual packages
• 1:14:45
  all available on the website. Good stuff, Big Marlee. Let's win some
• 1:14:48
  money tomorrow. Let's see some ship in Nation logos up top. From my
• 1:14:53
  man Big Marley, I'm titled town be Safe, Good luck. Everybody hans
• 1:15:13
  Mother and buns and still mother and busts and still mother any times, and
• 1:15:32
  mother and uns