Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Jamie Dimon Leaves Markets SPEECHLESS + Stock News Market 09 April 2024

Transcript

Jamie Dimon Leaves Markets SPEECHLESS + Stock News Market 09 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Okay, life at last.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Apologies for that Slight hiccups.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: That's what happens when you I don't know screw things up.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Should we all blame Winston?
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Probably yes, probably ate the remote or something.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: No, you can't blame poor Winston.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: He doesn't really put a foot wrong, except you rolled some very smelly things.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan arguably the most powerful banker of the most powerful, most important bank in the world came out with some pretty harsh words on the state of the market, the economy, on where inflation and interest rates are heading, and I think you need to understand it.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: And then we need to also understand what the Fed just said and where the market's actually heading and how to fit it all together.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: So you are the best informed, smartest investor out there.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in and you can't hear.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: I think you can hear Poor Winston.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no, he's not to blame.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: He's not to blame.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Winston is completely, completely, completely faultless.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: As always, let me jump.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: We make money and how we made 126% in 2022, 105% in 2023 using my three-step system that is automated largely and is beginner-friendly.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Seriously, this is beginner-friendly.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I'll assume zero knowledge.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I won't even assume that.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: You've seen a stock chart before, and that's also what's allowed us this year so far to make about 5K on our little public trading portfolio here of about $30,000.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So if you're thinking what can I do with the extra 5k if you had 30?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: And again the sort of promise of outcomes, but just to understand, for you to understand the system and how we do it, then come and join me in just 11 short hours.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: All right, jamie Dimon, here we go.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: He says Ukraine, hamas, polarization in US politics Shocking, isn't it?
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: It's basically saying it's creating risks that could be larger than anything we've had since World War II.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: And I told my campus and she said that's crazy.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: That's crazy.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: We don't want that kind of risk around here, do we?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: No, we don't.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: You can go back on the mouse pad now where you're most useful.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: And what else did he say?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Well, he says that he doesn't think, or he basically thinks the market is overestimating of the soft landing, miracle inflation going away, interest rates coming down.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: He just doesn't believe the market's pricing it in right and he therefore believes that the market is crowded, that stocks are elevated and likely to sell off.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: He does also and this makes me chuckle he says the banking crisis is over, or now, when terrible events happen, we tend to overestimate the effect that they'll have on the global economy.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Recent events, however, may very well be creating risks that could eclipse anything since World War II.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: We should not take them lightly.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Charming isn't it?
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't you always want to have him around for tea just to cheer you up?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I'd love that, Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk saying yes, he agrees.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So now the richest man in the world and the most powerful banker in the world agree that we've got crazy stuff happening in the world.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Should you therefore panic and stockpile sardines and kittens?
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: And I don't know how the kittens would help, but it'd be cuddly?
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Probably not.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I think a good risk management is what's missing from most people's portfolios, and again, we'll go through some of that in the live trading training in 11 hours.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So come and join me, felixfrenzelogcom, and I think that's really what I'd set up.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: I would really say I would add hedging, which sounds complicated, but it's much easier than you think to your portfolio of skills not to your portfolio, but actually as a skill and I would.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I would take some profits, and people just don't.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: People just don't take profits at the top of a market.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: They just feel like, oh well, but what if I miss out on the next bit of profit, it doesn't bloody matter if you made a profit right, it's better to have a profit than not to have a profit.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So that's one way I would always look at this and pre-market looking pretty glorious.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Why is that?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Because a glorious man came out yesterday.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Where is he?
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: That's not him.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Iran no, that's not him.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Blackstone buying L'Occitane?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: That's not him either.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: But here he is, our man, our man that we need and love.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: He says he's in Hong Kong, is he?
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't mind if I interviewed him.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Actually, he said he's expecting hong kong, is he?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't mind an interview to him.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Actually, he said he's expecting three rate cuts this year as inflation moves towards the central bank's target while the economy remains resilient.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: And that's the kind of fluffy, lovely talk that the market wants to hear.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: And the market goes.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Ignore all the noise.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: The world's gonna end.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Who cares?
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Let's make some money.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Let's listen to jamesard.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And he said you should probably take the committee that's the Fed's committees and chair at face value.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Their best guess right now is still three cuts this year.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: He says that's the base case.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: You're looking at a very successful policy with a pretty strong economy, so a lot of things going right for the Fed right now.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, what was he smoking the HSBC?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Oh, he was at that investment summit thing.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, that sounded pretty dull Rather him than me.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: So that would be better than what the market's pricing in right now.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So the market's pricing in a 0.6% cut right now.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: He's basically saying we're going to get 0.75, which would be about as glorious as another 75 likes on this particular video.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: You can make it happen and you can also, if you're inside the community, come and join me in short, sort of 20 minutes or so, and I'll be doing some live trading for you there as well.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So come and join that, and I tend to do that most weeks.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I mean somebody in our community.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Some of our investment bankers obviously trade live every week, but I tend to do it most weeks, except when I'm traveling and pre-market looking pretty good.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Google, meta, microsoft, amazon, tesla or Nvidia and Apple are all green.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Avgo is green, amd is green, fat drugs are green, berkshire is green, jp Morgan is green.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're selling some hedging product on the back of that.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: The end is near.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Speech and crikey we got all the economic data in the world.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Not what we wanted?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Nope, we just wanted the US of A.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Not a lot happening today, but tomorrow on glorious Wednesday, that is tomorrow we are getting a huge boost to the earnings of optometrists apparently.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Loads of people Googling it's a trending keyword.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: My eyes hurt.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, really Really.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Did you look into that eclipse?
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: You probably did, didn't you?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: When I was younger, people looked at the eclipse with CDs.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Now obviously people don't know what CDs are anymore, but that was a thing, apparently, that helped.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Core inflation tomorrow morning at 8.30 am Eastern time, just to wake us up with a jolt, and then the inflation rate.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: And then we get a couple of more Fed speeches that day too.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: And then at 2 pm, just to round up the excitement, we get FOMC minutes from the last Fed meeting, which are going to be gloriously exciting.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: I'll explain them to you when they come out.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: And then Thursday, jobless claims, ppi, and then Friday, michigan consumer sentiment and a few more Fed boy band members singing some sort of sing-off, apparently.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: So that's where we are right now Some sort of sing-off, apparently.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So that's where we are right now.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: We want to have a look at what we did in terms of institutions on Friday, and let me have a look at the largest trades.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: There were some not Friday, monday, even today's Tuesday, right Day of the week it is.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So trades were largely the big trades by big institutions were largely bearish the S&P on Tesla buying puts, Apple Meta, s&p Meta and so on.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: They were largely bearish moves, lululemon being a bit of an exception there, starting to like that stock, I must say.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But Lamb Western Holdings you don't normally see large puts on that Interesting bullish.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, not massively bearish moves, but significant.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: These are options contracts, so they're pretty sizable if you look at the numbers in terms of millions of dollars.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: So you can get your hands on that live data every single day.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: If you just head over to optionswatchio, links down below as well, it's a 30-day free trial if you want to play around with this.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Days like this make it hard to buy calls.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Well, if you bought calls, you'd feel pretty happy now, wouldn't you?
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Um pet boy band.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Indeed, what's wrong with so far?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Let me show, show you a look at SoFi, sofi, $7.78.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I think the $8 is going to be a tough one.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: If we crack through $7.83, which is the 50-day moving average line, I'd be rather happy about that, but I think $8 is going to be a tough nut to crack right now.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Be a tough nut to crack right now.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Palantir, doing decently I must say continuing just along the 50-day moving average line it's like it's attached to it or something $23 and a few cents, very, very happy anywhere above $23.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: And anything else you want us to the cut.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: What about NVIDIA here?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Pre-market AppBonds again 873.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So again, it's just moving sideways.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Ultimately, if you connect these kind of lows here, whoops and yeah, really kind of, can we get a line?
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Maybe we have a line.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Apparently not, lines are dear.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Apparently we get a line.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe we have a line Apparently not Lines are dear, apparently, seriously no line.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: One more time, you know, probably even a little lower 900.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: That's sort of 850 to 900 is kind of where we're sitting and I think from memory that is kind of where support and resistance sits, right For NVIDIA.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at options watcher.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, support right now sits at 870, that big red bar there, and resistance, I would think, yeah, kicks in at 900.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: You see that, that green bar there, that's your resistance basically.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: So, zoom in a little bit here, you can see it a little bit better.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Like that, you can see support down here at the red 870, resistance at 900.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: And that's basically why we're moving in that zone.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So it will probably continue till the end of the week.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Apple is consolidating, yeah, just.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: But it's pretty freaking uncomfortable, isn't it?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: It's there at 168 in a bit, which is exactly the lows from early March.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: It's uncomfortable.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: It better consolidate that.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: That's kind of where we're at 166, 90 or even 165, 80 down here would be your next kind of parachute moves Beyond that.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Well, you are basically on your own.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Can you take a look at KNSL?
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Knsl, hidden Sale Capital Group.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: What do they do?
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Sort of finance thing.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Multi-line insurance Ooh, how sexy Multi-line insurance.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Well, it looks pretty good, doesn't it?
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: But what the heck happened here?
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: What happened here on the 2nd of April, down 8.7%.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: That does not happen without news.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Selling off three days, dropping through the 50-day moving average line and pretty much filling the gap that will be gapped up here after earnings.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Not great, not great, doesn't trade pre-market?
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Not enough volume, I would suspect.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very little volume.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Possibly consolidating here.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Let's see.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: If it hits its head on the yellow 50-day moving average, it's possible, in which case it might keep going down.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: If it breaks above it again.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: It's probably a glitch, but I definitely find out what the heck happened here.