Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 47: President Jimmy Carter—GI or Silent Generation?

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Episode 47: President Jimmy Carter—GI or Silent Generation? · Trend Watch

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  Ready to take a deeper look at where history,
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  politics,
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  and economics all intersect?
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  SPEAKER_01: Well then, you've come to the right place.
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  SPEAKER_01: Each week,
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  SPEAKER_01: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
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  SPEAKER_01: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
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  SPEAKER_01: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
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  SPEAKER_01: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is Trend Watch.
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  SPEAKER_01: Today is January 8th, 2025, and this is Trend Watch.
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  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back, everyone, and Happy New Year.
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  SPEAKER_01: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
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  SPEAKER_01: So, Christian, I won't ask you how your year went, but how was your week?
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  SPEAKER_00: Oh, pretty good, Neil, but I'm snowed in still down here in D.C.
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  SPEAKER_00: We got the big storm on Saturday night,
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  SPEAKER_00: and when I say big,
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  SPEAKER_00: big for D.C.,
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  SPEAKER_00: and my road still has not been plowed.
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  Well,
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  I think that's an outrage considering how much tax revenue you
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  guys get down there.
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  I think you should get Department of Homeland Security and
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  maybe FEMA in particular.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's right there, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, how hard is that?
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  SPEAKER_01: Or maybe they're just waiting for the next snowstorm.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we might get one this weekend.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so why waste our time, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Does it impair you at all?
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  SPEAKER_01: Do you travel by car?
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  SPEAKER_00: Well,
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  the real issue is that we're getting to that point where it's
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  melting during the
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  SPEAKER_00: day and then freezing at night.
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  SPEAKER_00: So roads have a lot of black ice.
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  SPEAKER_00: So trying not to drive too much.
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  SPEAKER_01: No, that's one of the advantages of living up here in the mountains.
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  SPEAKER_01: It never gets warm enough to melt.
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  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, thank your blessings for that.
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  SPEAKER_01: As always,
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  SPEAKER_01: I want to remind all of our listeners,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you like this podcast,
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  SPEAKER_01: please go ahead and share it with friends and family.
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  SPEAKER_01: Repost it if you wish.
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  SPEAKER_01: Christian,
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  SPEAKER_01: maybe we should just explain,
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  SPEAKER_01: as we often do to listeners,
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  SPEAKER_01: that this isn't all we do on Substack.
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  SPEAKER_01: We also put out written content under the name of Demography Unplugged.
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  SPEAKER_01: And as I recall, we just put up something by the numbers.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yes,
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  we do this every couple of weeks where we look at the breaking
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  demographic news
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  SPEAKER_00: from around the world and give everyone a quick update.
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  SPEAKER_00: We looked at U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: life expectancy,
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  SPEAKER_00: some early fertility data,
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  SPEAKER_00: what's going on with crime in the U.S.,
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  SPEAKER_00: and some surprising birth numbers from South Korea.
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  SPEAKER_00: So if you're interested in the demographic side,
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  SPEAKER_00: I would definitely recommend checking out this piece.
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  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
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  SPEAKER_01: We actually will be delving a little bit into that.
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  I think we're going to be talking a bit on life expectancy in
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  this episode.
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  SPEAKER_01: And South Korea, a little baby bump.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think you could say.
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  SPEAKER_01: The first upward tick in TFR that we've seen in about a decade.
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  SPEAKER_01: And the data on crime, I thought was very interesting.
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  You know,
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  as always,
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  the FBI is a terrible site and they really make a mess out of
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  their data.
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  But nonetheless,
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  aside from the victimization survey,
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  it's really all we have.
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  SPEAKER_01: So I thought that part was well done.
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  SPEAKER_01: Well, let's get into today's podcast.
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  SPEAKER_01: As usual, there's a lot going on in the world.
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  SPEAKER_01: If you haven't noticed, here are our stories that we'll be looking at.
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  SPEAKER_01: Former President Jimmy Carter,
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  SPEAKER_01: who died last week at the age of 100,
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  is lying in state at the Capitol today and will be honored with
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  a national holiday tomorrow.
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  SPEAKER_01: Congressman Mike Johnson,
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  SPEAKER_01: the Republican of Louisiana,
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  was reelected Speaker of the House on Friday by the narrowest
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  possible margin,
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  SPEAKER_01: one vote.
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  And that could be the story coming up of the Republican guided
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  House majority over
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  SPEAKER_01: the next two years.
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  President-elect Donald Trump announced that he may invoke
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  emergency powers in order
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  to enact tariffs on day one and reiterated that nothing was off
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  the table,
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  SPEAKER_01: including military force,
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  SPEAKER_01: in his efforts to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal.
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  SPEAKER_01: U.S.
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  life expectancy increased in 2023,
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  but it still remains below pre-pandemic levels.
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  And in fact,
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  it remains pretty disappointing,
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  even with respect to all of the 2010s.
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  SPEAKER_01: So we'll certainly be getting into that.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then jumping to international stories on Monday,
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  Justin Trudeau announced that he will step down as Prime
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  Minister of Canada
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  Preparing the way for a new national election expected this
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  spring after what we
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  SPEAKER_01: expect to be a no confidence vote.
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  Finland's Coast Guard has seized an oil tanker believed to be
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  operated by Russia
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  after it was observed to be severing a power cable on the floor
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  of the Baltic Sea.
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  Amid rival partisan protests in downtown Seoul and the
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  leadership of South Korea
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  SPEAKER_01: still up in the air,
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  President Yoon Suk-yul's bodyguards warded off efforts by
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  investigative police to
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  SPEAKER_01: give himself up for interrogation.
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  SPEAKER_01: And that I think you're going to take the lead in talking about that.
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  The Biden administration has accused Pakistan of trying to
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  develop long-range
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  ballistic missiles with the capability to deliver nuclear
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  warheads to the United States.
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  SPEAKER_01: So that's the lineup.
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  And with that,
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  I think we're going to wind back around and talk a little bit
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  about markets.
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  SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil, the markets were relatively flat today.
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  SPEAKER_00: The S&P closed up 0.16%, and over the last five trading days is up 0.62%.
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  As for the global Dow,
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  that closed down 0.19%,
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  but over the last five days is up 0.11%.
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  SPEAKER_00: The VIX closed today at 17.66.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's a little bit above what we had been seeing.
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  And the 10-year Treasury is at 4.69%,
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  up 11.2 basis points over the last five days.
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  SPEAKER_01: Oh, you see, this is the news.
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  SPEAKER_01: Actually, after hours, it's now above 4.7, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: So this, yeah, this is the highest we've seen in, what, 15, 16 months.
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  SPEAKER_01: And look, the...
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  SPEAKER_01: the equity markets have turned around.
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  SPEAKER_01: They're now worried about inflationary pressure.
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  You're going to talk about that,
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  I think,
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  coming up in the various diffusion indexes.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think the PMIs, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
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  SPEAKER_01: You're going to be talking about them.
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  SPEAKER_01: But I do think that that's what's on people's mind now.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's kind of a whiplash or head fake or whatever you want to talk about.
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  SPEAKER_01: People worried about things crumbling.
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  SPEAKER_01: Now they're worried about things going too fast.
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  SPEAKER_01: And who knows, they may have to worry about both in quick succession.
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  SPEAKER_01: So tell us about the PMIs.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so we have PMIs for December.
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  SPEAKER_00: First,
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  SPEAKER_00: I'll start with the S&P PMIs,
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  SPEAKER_00: Neil,
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  SPEAKER_00: because we had preliminary readings,
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  SPEAKER_00: but those were actually significantly changed.
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  SPEAKER_00: So manufacturing came in at 49.4.
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  SPEAKER_00: While that marks six months of contraction,
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  it's actually a significant increase from the preliminary
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  estimate of 48.3%.
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  SPEAKER_00: Also, for services, that rose to 46.8.
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  SPEAKER_00: But this time, this was reduced from the preliminary estimate of 58.5.
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  SPEAKER_00: Remember, everyone thought that was... Yeah, 58.5 is crazy.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's like way up there.
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  SPEAKER_01: This was S&P, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Then if we go to ISM,
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  SPEAKER_00: we saw a slight rise in manufacturing and went up to 49.3,
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  SPEAKER_00: but still negative.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: Then for services, that rose to 54.1.
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  SPEAKER_00: So something interesting,
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  SPEAKER_00: Neil,
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  SPEAKER_00: is both of these PMIs are actually pretty in line this month,
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  SPEAKER_00: which isn't always the case.
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  SPEAKER_01: No, it's not always the case.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I think it would be really curious.
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  SPEAKER_01: Maybe you can just fill us in when the employment numbers are coming out.
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  I think they'll be a little later,
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  either this week or beginning of next week.
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  SPEAKER_01: Right, right.
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  SPEAKER_01: Because that's,
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  SPEAKER_01: as you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: we pay a lot of attention to these,
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  SPEAKER_01: and I do expect we're going to be disappointed on the employment numbers.
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  I think it's really interesting to see high demand with
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  suddenly contracting employment.
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  SPEAKER_01: As I pointed out recently,
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  we've seen contracting foreign-born employment levels for the
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  past three months,
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  SPEAKER_01: according to CPS.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's the first time we've seen that in a long time.
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  SPEAKER_01: We knew that
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  The Biden administration since July,
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  right,
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  was was trying to tighten up.
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  SPEAKER_01: And in fact, all the indicators suggest that that's been happening.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know, border crossings and all that.
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  SPEAKER_01: All the data are down.
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  SPEAKER_01: And we just imagine people are also probably.
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  acting in anticipation of what trump's going to do right well
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  who knows what he's
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  going to do but that's going to be really interesting and then
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  we have the the uh
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  the big revision the big february revision and the nfp number
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  right on the other
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  side of the employment statistics so that's something coming up
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  and um we'll
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  SPEAKER_01: certainly be reporting them here on this uh
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  SPEAKER_01: on this podcast, if not elsewhere as well.
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  SPEAKER_01: So with that, do you have anything around the world?
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  SPEAKER_00: I have a few things from the Eurozone.
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  SPEAKER_00: We also had December PMIs.
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  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing was steady at 45.1, not looking very good there.
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  Services rose slightly from slightly negative to actually 51.6,
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  so we're in positive territory.
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  But we also had consumer confidence for December,
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  which fell to negative 14.5.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's the lowest reading since April.
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  SPEAKER_00: So...
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  not too doesn't look too great in the eurozone got it um
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  anything from china uh not
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  yet we probably get something next week got it got it well uh
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  with that why don't
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  we why don't we dive in uh with our first story this is um
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  former president jimmy
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  SPEAKER_01: carter passing away