Latest / Show Us Your Tips / Makybe Diva Stakes - Flemington & Rosehill preview - 12 September 2026 - Daggy edition
Transcript
- Adrian D’Agostino: It is the breakfast edition of Show Us Your Tips. Daggy with you for a media ⁓ Saturday, in fact, preview. It is, it's a group one preview. ⁓ Makai Bedever Stakes, Dave Flemington, and Rose Hill to look at as we get stuck into some good races as the spring really hots up. ⁓ I've tied up for it with a few commitments today with the NFL, so we'll be looking through this early, hoping the beaver shoots through his edition and I can attach it later on, and we'll have have two shows for you to give all our thoughts across both cards. But I'm going to kick off at Flamington, where it is the Mackay Deva Stakes meeting. We've got a good track, finally, we've got rail in the trim. We've got pretty good weather around. So all systems go for what should be a very good day's racing and a good betting day. In fact, I think it's a good betting day in both states. So ⁓ looking forward to getting stuck into it, which I'll do so now. First race is a twelve hundred metre benchmark eighty-four. ⁓ and I've gone for the outsider of the field in the first, which is Space Rider. fresh is best for this horse. ⁓ it's to Beaten up some nice horses fresh in the past, including the likes of Afterburners. ⁓ comes here off Pingelids in its latest trials, being gelded. I think this could be a decent prep for it. Mark Zara takes a ride, and you're getting seven bucks in a six horse field. So I'm going to find out there in the first one by one, which I like to take. ⁓ the main danger, Mark Dell gets Craig Williams back on after being a bit disappointing last time out. Did win with Williams on two back. ⁓ it can bounce back. I Ruska Roma is the the other pace in the race which will help it. So I'm gonna go with ⁓ the numbers one three seven in the first. The second is the listed Mike Moroni stakes. The most interesting race on the card just about for the three-year-olds, over fourteen hundred meters. And Chris Wall has arrived in town for the spring with some horses today, and that's so I'm gonna go here. I talked about diameter first up, made a bit of a case for it resuming, ⁓ but had a a poke around there, comes here fourteen hundred metres. Second up down to Melbourne, Jason Collect gate one. I think it's gonna be further forward. It's gonna be in to finish this race, and it's about $13, what I'm looking at now. So let's find out, make it the best value on the card. I think the stable mate looks a likely type announcing coming off a maiden end off ⁓ chasing a line in a midweek thing, but ⁓ has attacked the line on both starts this prep. So I'm gonna put it in. ⁓ unit five obvious coming through its first up run. ⁓ but there's other bits and pieces here. I'm scared of Larry Antopova, scared of Gaze Horse, Harry Lyme, scared of Big Wigs, who I tipped first up and and had no chance on that track. ⁓ but essentially gonna just spec the two waller runners and see how we go. The third is the 1100 metre Captain Tebes. ⁓ where ⁓ up the straight here. Where I am starting to think the blue diamond form's no good, so I'm just starting to get rid of all of it. All Barkest House, of course, who is very good. ⁓ but the Phillies here up the straight, eleven hundred meters. I'm gonna put ⁓ scintillation on top here, another Sydney horse at a price it's fourteen bucks at the moment. Comes off ⁓ a good a good chase last time out chasing natural fling. ⁓ who had the railance favor there. Did a good job. The win first up was very good, the trials are very good. ⁓ and again we're getting double figures for a talented Philly. ⁓ so it's on top at the price from Satono Glow. Again, the stable mate. ⁓ might be a wet tracker, but did some good stuff last preps. and the trials were good enough. ⁓ just think we get an each by price on both. We can get a a bit of result out of one of them. Lucky Brook, big strong thing, dry track suits, ⁓ very nice debut, trials were good. will run well here and I amari, ⁓ I know mentioned the blue diamond, but it ca it it came back, it's broken, it's made in now and looks ready to go. A few others I'm scared of, ⁓ a bit like the last race, but I can't list them all. ⁓ we'll just see if we can get a bit of value out of the ones I've mentioned. The fourth, we stick to 1100 metres. We go to group three level and it's the boys edition here. I'm sticking with Chris Waller again. I'm Sydney, Sydney, Sydney in the three-year-old races here. And I'm backing Steel Wheel. ⁓ We got the money out of it on the wet track last time off the very nice win at Wyong. I think back to dry suits. I'm a bit surprised it's gone back to 1100 metres. But And and you always get the bit of the concern it might just be the tick over run for something next start. But we're happy to find out at about the eight dollar mark. I think it is a nice horse. And we're going to also cover Big Sky, who's five bucks. Unbeaten. The trolls have been good again. We'll ride the pace, which is always an advantage up the straight. ⁓ they're the main two I'll play in the fourth. The fifth is the Lexus Archer Stakes, which is a group three for the stays and a free ticket into the Melbourne Cup. And I'm gonna put Nyarko Frod on top. It is absolutely flying this prep. They've kept it ⁓ pretty well up to speed all the way through. Has done it on the dry and the wet ⁓ and just cruise through. We'll find a good spot here in a in a pace bereft of a race bereft of a lot of pace. And I think it'll win again. My best in the card outside the obvious shorties later. ⁓ let's deal the only danger, it will ride the pace as well and is the one they have to get past. But I think we see Nyako stamping its ticket on the way to November. The fifth is the Tontanan Stakes. 1400 metre listed raced here. And again looking for a little bit of value early in the card. And in the last two preps, Cafe Millenniums had ⁓ it's had a warm-up run at Corfield and then come to Flemington second up, 1400 metres and one. ⁓ stuck to the pattern here. I thought it did as good as it could have sitting three wide at ⁓ at Corfield there and what ended up being an ugly race. Mark Zara has jumped on. Second up last prep, it did beat Sabaj, who's a bit of a spruk horse. So it's on top ⁓ at the nice price. I think Fansify did a pretty good job last time out. ⁓ and now has found its form again, coming back to leading. ⁓ just bossed Sassapiel there. I Sassapiel really enjoyed chasing it. ⁓ and didn't he at the end of the day, I think it was all honors. And I don't think Sassapiel's just going to be handed lead here off that. So we'll make it. The danger fancifier. So a bit of value around our Cornella play there. One, seven, eight, and four for me in the six. I've gone a bit mainstream with those numbers. Anyway, LaQuardi kicks off in the seventh, which is the group two Bobby Lewis. And 11 of the day was very good first up. ⁓ barely got out of second gear, just poking at there and winning late. The obvious, as the market suggests, on top here. ⁓ should get a nice run and is gunning for an Everest spot. So it's heading there. I think it's got a Look after these. Not a lot to talk about here. I'm gonna spec enriched for a place. ⁓ I think it ⁓ it's been a while between runs, but I thought trial was okay and decent enough resumption in Sydney comes down and there's not a lot else here that I want to really make a case for running well, to be honest. I think Olivia another day has this at its mercy. ⁓ yeah, I won't spend a lot more on it. On to bigger and better things for it. ⁓ at a time when we probably could use a few other top line splinter ⁓ sprinters. The feature is the Micaiah Beaver stakes over a mile at group one level ⁓ and we see she's an alibi return to Melbourne in what looks a group one full of resuming stayers essentially pace is the only thing that'll beat her here. ⁓ she's on top obviously in the conversation for best horse in the country. Good resumption missing the start behind Autumn Glow. ⁓ if close enough and it's not a far score ratio in. From ⁓ Mr. Bright's have just been right spot to ⁓ to pinch another placing and and push towards twenty million in prize money, Blake Sheen will get the pace right. Of course, Trez at the moment will fight out the ⁓ the third place there, but I think Sedelius, I wanted to make a case for it. Trials were great, look sharp enough and ready to go. And will Craig Williams is another one that will know just where to sit and get the the pace right, should it be slow? might want the warm up but has resumed over a mile the last couple of preps and run well behind Autumn Glow and and Linderman. So ⁓ it is an interesting race, but I have gone with the favorite from the four mentioned are there any four possible chances in this race. if there's any more than one possible chance. Looking forward to seeing it then looking forward to the setting up for the I guess a Cox played at the same track in a month's time. The ninth is the brood mare sale warm. I the Let's Lope Stakes, 1400 meter group two for the four-year-old and up mares. And I have a little throw at the stumps here with a resuming ⁓ mare in two darn discreet. I think penny drop for at the back end of last prep, putting together a couple of nice wins. trial was sharp enough for this and it's thirties. ⁓ so I think it's just on a day where we can plow into some favourites worth some thought, ⁓ for at least covering a place for. But ⁓ I'll have a little Spec at that. I thought Gold Coast spell is the obvious favourite, but has to make another step up in grade if you can call it that. In this case, ⁓ we'll be in the right spot from from Nat Gate. We'll we'll push forward and potentially sit outside lead, I'd say. ⁓ and if you like a by all means back it. Ker Vellante next best goes into the Quaddy. Coming back from chasing Cosmic Crusader. The last is what I thought was gonna be a very tricky race to to untangle and By the time I was finished, I thought Storm Leopard was a good thing. nice resumption there. Running a cruising design there behind cruising to line there behind Fansify in the race I talked about earlier. ⁓ straight out of 1700 metres, comes off a placing in the Derby and a nice win ⁓ in the Tullik stakes, I believe. Last preparation. ⁓ so he's on top. ⁓ I think Detonator Jack is flying and in clear danger. They just ran into other two other horses that's the last couple of starts that are also flying ⁓ in first chorus and dark bene. ⁓ but we'll run well here is 12 bucks. I like it as a danger. And the two that'll be on pace, we'll throw into the placings next future history and ambassadorial ⁓ on what should be a good card at Flemington. Where I'm gonna have a look at the Flemington Quaddy. Now, if you just want to take the favorites one out, you can get a live another day, she's alibi, gold coast. Bell and Storm Leopard. About 20 to 1 for an all-up. So if you want to c either cover or just use your stake there, go for it. Otherwise, if you want a quaddy, first leg five, we'll go five and eight, ⁓ which is a live another day and enrich. Second leg, Mr. Bright side number one, four Sedelius and twelve. She's an alibi. Third leg, three, two Darnest Creek, four gold coast bell and five curveolonte. And we'll come home with one future history, two detonator jack, six ambassadorial and thirteen storm leopard, a hundred bucks gets you about a hundred and forty percent of that. ⁓ can't attest to any of there being any value though. ⁓ should all those favourites lob. Let's head to Rose Hill. Where the rail goes into the five. It is beautiful weather. Forecast for tomorrow, a bit drizzly actually in western Sydney at the moment. Hopefully that burns off today. ⁓ rail in a five could potentially be on pace. Last time it was there, it was a bit wetter back in March, and we were able to sort of win one off and a little bit wider. So obviously, as always, watch and learn early. We kick off with the highway, which was a class three over 1400 metres. And a deeper. I got into this one. The more tangled I end up becoming with the the Matt Dunn runners here. I've ended up I've ended up defaulting to the two from the on the quick backup from the Lord Remlap race last week. That is Weyburn ⁓ on top for me with my Molly Fitzgerald. Didn't get a bunch of clear air there. And the previous form ⁓ in highways i is as good a highway form as you'll see in general. ⁓ Nimble Star is the danger for me. Same same, finish alongside Weyburn first up. ⁓ you go back through its form it has run well at this grade ⁓ a few times previously. and I'm scared of the lightly race to favorite down the bottom here, brutal miss. Once it gets a run. ⁓ comes down from a Gold Coast win. ⁓ looks to be going okay, has been backed, ⁓ etc. etc. As you know with Matt Dunn runners. And what else have I got? Extreme. I I've backed its last two starts. It'll now jump off at a win. Watch that happen tomorrow. The second is the midway. Benchmark seventy as usual. ⁓ over twelve hundred metres. And I'm gonna go with the lightly raised to Roque Deed on top. One both it's it starts back. This prep was well backed and won well at Warwick Farm last time out. I think this is the right step to come to town at third up and can run well here. And Annie's Rose coming off ⁓ a win last month which was good. I know it said seventh on the car on in that race last time out at Ramwick, but it ⁓ crossed the line with six others there just about it ⁓ ran well there and didn't have the best of luck. Probably rightful favourite. ⁓ we've seen in the past these races you can get to a stage where you you can back a couple of chances, ⁓ compared to early markets and that is probably the way I'm p I'll play ⁓ because Annie's Rose will run well here. ⁓ Next best, let's go again and better late. They're both be on pace ⁓ and we'll give you a side if you're looking for some value. The third is the twenty-four hundred metre benchmark seventy-eight and appeared is unbeaten in Australia. Goes out twenty four hundred meters, it probably probably needs it. I'm hoping that last run was a bit flat. It went to the midweeks and took a while to wind up. It's still one in the end. I think out and distance, no pace, suits. ⁓ the concern is Bjorn Baker's only had two winners from his la his last forty, I think forty f forty-three, forty-four runners in town. ⁓ including Sayu Pence the other week. So ⁓ slight concern about how the stable was going, but ⁓ I think this is fair enough favorite here. Probably wouldn't win any shorter. ⁓ I might have a the other horse I thought about ⁓ was unbelievable. ⁓ there was some money for it last time out behind Athelwolf. mayor even he'd one more run. ⁓ but big strong thing and might even want a senior jock to be honest, but they're they're trying to keep the weight down there. ⁓ interesting how it runs here now at to an appropriate distance. I think it will run well. The fourth is a benchmark eighty eight, eighteen hundred meters and yuck is what happened here. And I've just noticed there's been money overnight for Mukta Khalif. I have got it on top. ⁓ okay resumption back to a dry track. And gets a tuck in behind Levampier and Anthrocyte on pace. I think that all suits. And I'm going to put it on top as well, the market's also done the same. It is favourite, but I'm I'm sticking with it. I think the only other danger, to be honest, is anthracite, who's fit, will ride the pace, and ⁓ has been good. Chasing some decent ones the last couple. not telling anything that you can't see, but ⁓ that's the way I've put them favorite from second favourite. The fifth is fifteen hundred meter benchmark seventy eight here. ⁓ where Transcend is has put a couple together, not ultra convincingly, but at some point the penny will drop and she'll blow a food like this away. But I've gone looking actually away from the the mayors here. He has to come back to open grade and I've gone with Silvanito on top around twelve dollars. ⁓ I think its last two runs have been very honest behind Steel Strike and then behind Mr Miller, who looks promising. ⁓ we'll be in the right spot and ⁓ won't won't make any mistakes. We'll be there ⁓ to clean up any pieces transend leaves essentially. So it is on top. But very glad is a price. and one it was first up for Freeman to one there. But you're getting twenties again for a horse off a win in a a bit of an in ⁓ shaky race. ⁓ I'm gonna cover it as well. And I'm interested to see Chisper. Who resumes off a quest bell in Queensland and a Queensland Oaks campaign generally does good things for And Moller likes resuming them ⁓ off that in town and they have a pretty good strike rate. And James McDonald is booked. So that's a ten dollar chance ⁓ in a wide race. ⁓ if you're happy to play Raven of Favorites, any of those three will give you a sight, I'm pretty confident. So ⁓ looking forward to seeing it 'cause I think we can follow particularly Chisper going forward into something. Whatever that means. Four and a hundred metre group three is race six for the Ming Dynasty ⁓ for the three year olds. And I just ended up deciding that the plagiarism race isn't much good, so I got rid of it. ⁓ there's a few lightly raced horses coming off Canterbury winds, don't really know where to line them up, so I've ended up gonna stick with I mean Huckleby on top here. I think it'll lead, which isn't a bad place to be. And comes off a nice enough win. resuming it I know it was only at one, but it did that pretty well. It was just a knock over a a maiden there. ⁓ gonna put it on top from Stormy Marco. J Max jumped on this while a runner coming off ⁓ a decent enough run behind Tronbolt last start up in Queensland. And ⁓ we'll know more afterwards obviously, but I don't know if the Golden Rose we're in is in this lot. ⁓ Stormy Marco might be going somewhere though. So yeah. Those two are the two that interest me in in that race. The Quaddy is the group two a Shiraco stakes, which ⁓ all of a sudden, yeah, Wallace just thrown in two very good horses at the top, and that's the way I've gone ⁓ compared to some of these other, you know, okay sprinters. I've ended up with Lady Shenandoah on top here. Did resume behind Autumn Glow. Obviously that's sport form speaks for itself. Back to twelve hundred metres a little odd. ⁓ but I assume just kept fresh and just finds a really winnable race for it to get back into the winning stall. There's no autumn glows or alibis or jimmy stars in this one. So on top for me, I think we think win woman is the main danger. Put together Picket Fence last prep. We'll be on pace. We'll be the one everyone has to get past and and is a probably an underrated horse. Lazura, I was probably shocked as favourite 'cause I To have a lot of a bit of an opinion of, but resuming maybe sh slightly short of its best, ⁓ perhaps a one run into a four hundred meter for it, but ⁓ very nice horse. ⁓ they're the only three that had any interest for me, but let's find out if we get an each way result. I Lady Shandel runs a place and we can work backwards from there. The eighth is the twelve hundred meter group to run to the rows, where ⁓ what have I done here? My bet in the race is gonna be music time each way. I think it's got it's come back well, it finished well. ⁓ chased guest house nas time out and second up, read to go, ⁓ around the thirteen dollars is is on top. I actually struggled a little bit to get my head around Saint Godhard being favourite. I know s I notice it's just drifted. ⁓ it you know, it's won a ⁓ Gold Coast race and a Rorwick farm race and it's popped up favourite here. I assume just because J Max on the assumption is it's the best tools here and it will run well. Not knocking it, ⁓ it hasn't anything wrong yet. Just was shocked at the price. ⁓ particularly when you get bigger prices around said Tron Bolt and b around Fireball, who ⁓ won twenties, one forties, throw the mini quaddy when we get there. ⁓ I I I think they're just better than a lot of these. ⁓ but looking forward to seeing this race ⁓ play out. For the record, as I said, I think the best play is just backing music time each way. ⁓ and maybe small specs around those top two Waller runners. The thirteen hundred metre Theramarks Group Two comes up next and I am gonna load up on one here and that's Skyhook. ⁓ nice horse. Went to Queensland, did did some well done some nice things all through its career, but it comes off a Queensland prep. Trials were great. And there's not a lot of chases here. ⁓ should just find a spot somewhere up close to the pace ⁓ and win. ⁓ I think midnight in Tokyo off it's a nice Sydney Boo was good, runs well again, ⁓ and sandpaper it didn't have the Then we got resuming stays, falls off a cliff after that. I had sandpaper next best because as Nash and a leader. And we finish in the last where I have once again, well I'm annoyed its favorite, but I've put Ruination on top. It's come back in good order. Got the job done last time out. Another race where I'm not sure the rest is any good. ⁓ again a little bit upset it's not a bigger price, but we might get that. ⁓ Eagle Express will be the one that spells a party if it does, just like it did last time out. ⁓ Gate One Zacloid will just suck along and absolutely fire a shot at it late. They're the main two. ⁓ get a fix. If you're looking for one of the trifecta's finally got its feet together and has ⁓ synthetical filler off. And maybe we can get back to some stuff it showed earlier in its career. Grand Impact to run will again, but to be honest, it's probably turn it up. It's last couple. But goes into the Quaddy, which I will mention now. First leg, ⁓ race one, Lady ⁓ first leg is race seven. Number one, Lady Shenandoah, two Lazura. Three Apocalyptic and eight Weeping Woman. Second leg, one Fireball, two Tronbolt, four Music Time, seven Saint Godhard, and twelve under focus. Third leg, five midnight in Toku, six Skyhook, and eleven Firestorm. And we'll come home with one Grand Impact, two get a fix, six Eagle Express, and ten Ruination. 100 bucks gets you 42% there. My best. Race is race nine number six Skyhook, my value, race five number six, Silvanito. Did I give best and value at Flemington? It is, ⁓ well, I like all the shorties there, but my best is actually race five number three Niarko Frod and my value is race two number two at Flamington Diameter. ⁓ thanks guys for listening. Hopefully we've got some winners in there. And as I said, hopefully I've got a preview from Beaver coming up, which will be up. Sometime ⁓ early afternoon. Good punting tomorrow and we'll do it again next week. Catcha.