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TRUMP BACKS DOWN | Why The Petrodollar Won't Survive! | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

0:01
Bitcoin is stuck in the 70s. Staying alive, staying alive.
0:07
The biggest story on mainstream media is Iran called and Trump
0:11
picked up. Hello.
0:12
The war might be over, Hormuz might reopen, my gas prices
0:15
might come down. But here's what they're not
0:16
telling you why the war ended. The war ended because America
0:20
can't afford it anymore. They're pretending they can.
0:22
But come. 10 year Treasury yields from 42 basis points the
0:26
week the strike started on $36 trillion of debt.
0:30
Do that math in your head. And while the ceasefire was
0:32
being negotiated, India paid Iran and Yuan to move an oil
0:35
tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.
0:38
Not dollars. You want the bypass lane for
0:40
dollar free oil trade just got built.
0:43
So which one is going parabolic first, Bitcoin or gas?
0:46
Emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin.
0:49
Let's go, but not too far because I don't think we can
0:52
afford it. Bitcoin is holding in the 70s as
1:00
of this recording and the narrative machine is fully in
1:02
peace deal mode. Trump announced a deal, Iran
1:05
came to the table, the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, and the
1:09
financial press is doing what it has always done, covering the
1:12
event, not the structure underneath the event.
1:15
Today we're going deeper than the headline because the Iran
1:18
ceasefire reveals 3 structural failures of Fiat money that
1:22
Bitcoin was built to survive and they don't go away when Hormuz
1:26
opens. First problem, the war.
1:28
They can't stop borrowing to fund 42 basis points on $36
1:32
trillion in debt is roughly $413 million a day in extra interest
1:38
every day. Wait wait wait, that's an
1:41
interest alone and I have to pay for a war on top of that.
1:44
Oh wow. OK.
1:46
Do you have like a lower tier war subscription?
1:48
You know like a like a hobbyist level?
1:51
Something around $19.00 a month. Much more my budget.
1:54
Second problem, dollar weaponization that backfires.
1:57
While Trump was issuing ultimatums, India quietly paid
2:01
Iran's straight of Hormuz toll in yuan.
2:03
By the way, the word quietly is the number one indicator that AI
2:07
wrote your script. Nations paying for oil in yuan
2:10
get safe passage. The Petro yuan infrastructure
2:13
got built during the war to defend the Petro dollar, which
2:16
is weird. That's the part that nobody's
2:18
covering. And 3rd, a quickly moving
2:20
collapse of purchasing power. Gas prices that seem to
2:22
fluctuate with the change of weather.
2:24
Bitcoin dropped 2 1/2% through all of it and the S&P 500 hit
2:28
2026 lows, which I know we're still in March so it doesn't
2:31
mean much, but 240,000 traders got liquidated.
2:35
Morgan Stanley, however, just filed for its own spot Bitcoin
2:39
ETF. That's the first major U.S. bank
2:41
in history. The institutions aren't trading
2:43
the war, they're pricing the fiscal reality the war just made
2:46
impossible to ignore. Bitcoin is the answer to all
2:49
three of these problems. Let's start with the math, our
2:51
new superhero of this era. Because math is what stopped
2:54
this war. Not diplomacy, not strategy.
2:57
Formerly micro strategy math. the US has $36 trillion in debt.
3:02
That number is not abstract. That number has a monthly
3:05
payment. And when you go to war in a
3:07
region that controls 20% of global oil supply and the bond
3:11
markets decide it doesn't like that, the interest rate on your
3:14
debt goes up. In the week the Iran strike
3:17
started, the 10 year Treasury yield moved 42 basis points from
3:22
roughly 3.97% to 4.39% in one week.
3:27
Now 42 basis points on $36 trillion.
3:30
That's approximately $413 million in extra interest per
3:35
day, not total extra above what the government was already
3:40
paying before the war started. And it wasn't just the bond
3:42
market. Oil went to $90.00 a barrel.
3:45
Airlines were pricing in $175 crude.
3:49
Scenario. US farmers, Trump's most loyal
3:52
constituency, were getting crushed before planting season
3:55
and fertilizer prices were up, diesel prices were up, margins
3:59
gone. Trump literally predicted oil
4:01
would go higher. How could he have known that?
4:03
Perhaps he can read the future. There's a great series of quotes
4:07
circulating this week where Trump says at one point I think
4:10
we've won. Three hours later we were
4:13
winding down. One hour after that, he doesn't
4:15
want a ceasefire. And then a deal happened.
4:18
That's five dimensional chest of play if I've ever seen it.
4:20
That's the president who has two audiences, the domestic base and
4:24
the bond market. And only one of them got what it
4:26
wanted. Well done, Trump.
4:27
So who won bond market? James Bond market.
4:30
And here's the part that should really bother you.
4:32
This was Iran, a regional power, a country with its air defenses
4:36
reportedly degraded in the first week, a country with half its
4:39
oil revenue already sanctioned and the bond market still pooped
4:43
its pants. What happens the next time?
4:45
What happens when it's a bigger country, a bigger war, a longer
4:48
poop? The answer is you can't afford
4:51
it. Not because the military isn't
4:53
powerful enough. Well, no.
4:54
It's because the military isn't powerful enough.
4:56
Because you can't pay them. Because the interest on your
4:59
debt means that you have to print more, which devalues the
5:02
units you're printing for your military to operate in the first
5:05
place. So tomorrow morning, sometime
5:10
their time, we were expected to blow up their largest electric
5:15
generating plants that cost over $10 billion to build.
5:20
It's a very good one. There was no dearth of money and
5:24
one shot, it's gone, it collapses.
5:29
Why would they want that? So they called, I didn't call,
5:33
they called. They want to make a deal and we
5:36
are very willing to make a deal. It's got to be a good deal and
5:39
it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons.
5:42
They're not going to have nuclear weapons anymore.
5:44
They're agreeing to that. Any of that stuff, there's no
5:48
deal. They called it, I didn't.
5:51
Regardless of the truth in that statement, it's always funny to
5:53
hear Trump's boss language, right?
5:55
I would never call only losers call losers.
6:00
Anyway, that was the closing line of the negotiation, and to
6:03
be fair, it's a good line. It's also the only acceptable
6:06
framing in the current political environment.
6:08
Nobody in Washington can say the bond market ended the war.
6:11
That's not a press release that goes up.
6:13
But the oil price analyst at Bloomberg said it, The Farm
6:16
Bureau said it, The interest rate math says it.
6:19
The only people not saying it are the ones whose job it is to
6:22
maintain the narrative that American military power is
6:25
unconditional. It isn't.
6:26
It has a price. And this is where it gets
6:28
interesting. Right now the price is $413
6:32
million a day in extra interest. I told you it gets interesting.
6:36
Isn't it great that Bitcoin lives outside of that system?
6:39
Either let inflation run hot or let the sovereign bond market
6:43
potentially default and run into liquidity problems.
6:46
That that's really their their two main choices.
6:48
Like I mentioned the other, the third choice, which only works
6:50
temporarily, is they could ease regulations on banks so they
6:54
don't have to count treasuries and cash against their capital,
6:57
which basically allows banks to lever up and buy more Treasuries
7:01
or perform more repo lending. So they have a handful of levers
7:04
they can pull that either look like QE or shadow QE.
7:08
But you know, at the end of the day, they never let the bond
7:10
market just go illiquid, and so they always air on more
7:14
inflation even when it's above target.
7:16
You see where this is going, right?
7:17
the United States government has two options.
7:20
Option A Let inflation run hot, which means the dollar in your
7:24
pocket is worth less every year and the real cost of debt gets
7:27
inflated away. Option B let the bond market
7:30
break, which means liquidity crisis, potential default
7:34
financial system stress. Those are your two options.
7:37
That's the menu. Can I get onions on the side of
7:41
that please? There is no option C where they
7:43
cut spending, pay down the debt, run a surplus, and stabilize the
7:46
currency. That option requires a political
7:49
consensus that doesn't exist and probably can't exist with this
7:53
much debt outstanding. Every war they fight makes the
7:56
options worse. Every dollar of deficit spending
7:59
makes option A more likely. Every basis point of yield
8:02
increase makes option B more likely.
8:05
And sitting outside of both of those options is Bitcoin.
8:08
Fixed supply, no central bank, no interest meter.
8:12
You can have your onions on the side.
8:15
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8:19
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9:25
The ceasefire headlines buried the actual story.
9:28
Let me give it to you here. India paid Iran's strader from
9:30
use transit fee for an oil tanker to pass through it in
9:35
yuan. And here's the key sentence from
9:38
the reporting this week. Nations paying for oil in yuan
9:41
are granted safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a toll
9:45
road for dollar free oil trade built while Trump was
9:48
threatening to close Hormuz. Think about what actually
9:51
happened here. the United States went to war in part to maintain
9:55
dollar hegemony over global oil markets.
9:57
That is the core logic of the petrodollar system that Nixon
10:00
and Kissinger built in 1973. You price oil in dollars.
10:05
The world needs dollars to buy oil.
10:07
The world holds dollars in reserve.
10:09
The dollar stays the world's reserve currency. the US can run
10:12
deficits. The cycle continues, and
10:15
everyone is happy. But what if Iran, during the
10:17
war, built the bypass lane and India used it and it happened
10:22
this week? That did happen this week.
10:25
Yeah. What if it did?
10:26
It did, Yeah. But what if Then we would be
10:30
where we are? What if we were where we are?
10:33
Stop it, stop it, please stop it.
10:36
Just stop it. A tweet from radar hits that's
10:38
been circulating says Donald Trump has achieved the Petro
10:41
Yuan and undermined US hegemony through the petrodollar.
10:45
That's a little spicy, but it's not wrong.
10:46
The war to defend the petrodollar created the
10:49
infrastructure for the Petro Yuan.
10:51
That's the outcome. The peace deal reopens the
10:53
Strait of Hormuz, yes, but it does not close the Yuan toll
10:57
road. It does not unbuild the
10:59
settlement infrastructure. It does not make India go back
11:02
to paying in dollars. The bypass exists.
11:05
It worked, countries noticed. Now, to be precise, the Petro
11:08
yuan is not being replaced by the Petro dollar tomorrow or
11:12
next year or probably in this decade.
11:14
The dollar is still 70% of global foreign exchange
11:17
reserves. The treasury market is still the
11:19
deepest, most liquid debt market in the world.
11:22
The plumbing of global trade still runs mostly through the
11:25
SWIFT and dollar denominated systems.
11:28
Mostly. But here's what changed this
11:30
week. Another data point that got
11:31
added to the trend line. Saudi Arabia, Russia, China,
11:35
India, the bricks, all of them have been building alternative
11:39
settlement infrastructure for years.
11:41
Have you seen that one episode of sanctions?
11:43
The one where Russia gets sanctioned in 2022?
11:45
Classic. Or how about the the whole
11:47
season where Iran gets sanctioned for decades?
11:50
Man, I love that show. Every war that threatens the
11:53
trade routes that run through dollar hegemony accelerate it.
11:57
Isn't that like an anti fragile system?
12:00
I guess inversely kind of. The pace is slow, but it's not
12:03
reversing the direction is set. So shifting back to neutral
12:07
reserve assets can be a painful transition, but I think it's
12:11
it's, you know, it's a more natural state of affairs.
12:14
And so I think a lot of these moves makes a lot of sense.
12:16
So, so I mean, you know, sovereigns are preparing for a
12:19
world where the US remains the core of the system, but the
12:22
margin of safety is kind of no longer trusted to the same
12:24
degree. Yeah, I would describe it at
12:27
the, it's, it's moving to a world where the US is the the
12:29
biggest individual entity in in currency reserves, but it is not
12:35
the only game in town. So right now the two the, you
12:38
know, obviously the two biggest economic powers of the US and
12:40
China, China's got a much stronger industrial base. the US
12:43
has a much stronger kind of capital markets and global
12:46
reserve base. But around the margins, there's
12:49
been a shift, you know, a tiny bit into into, you know, Chinese
12:52
bonds, but primarily into these neutral reserve assets like
12:55
gold. And so basically you have gold
12:58
as a major reserve asset, you have treasures as a major
13:00
reserve asset around the margins, you have other major
13:03
developed fiats as reserve assets.
13:05
And that's just in general, it's a more balanced system than than
13:08
basically having, you know, 80% of all assets, you know, stuffed
13:11
into U.S. markets. Here's the way I think about
13:13
this. For 50 years, the petrodollar
13:15
system worked because it served everyone.
13:17
Oil exporters got stable dollar revenues, the US got a permanent
13:21
demand for its currency and its debt, and the world got a
13:25
pricing mechanism for global energy that was liquid,
13:27
predictable, and backed by the biggest military in human
13:31
history. The military is still the
13:32
biggest, but the debt is now $36 trillion.
13:36
The rate on the debt is 4.39%. That's like an aircraft carrier
13:41
every month. What happens when the cost of
13:43
maintaining the system exceeds the benefit of being in that
13:46
system? Well, you get India paying and
13:48
you want. You get countries quietly
13:50
diversifying reserves. Quietly you get gold at 4500 an
13:54
ounce while the dollar slowly melts.
13:58
That's the transition Lynn Alden just described a shift of
14:01
neutral reserve assets. That's what this week's oil
14:04
tanker was about. 1 transaction, one data .1 More reason for
14:08
every country outside of the dollar system to keep building
14:11
the bypass and sitting there as the only global neutral, non
14:15
sovereign fixed supply asset in existence is of course Bitcoin.
14:21
So I'm going to pause here for a second.
14:23
If you've been watching this show and you're thinking OK, I
14:25
believe this thesis, but I don't actually have my Bitcoin in self
14:28
custody, Well today is the day to fix that.
14:30
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14:34
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everything that you need to know to not be dependent on an
14:45
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14:49
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14:54
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14:56
Now let's talk about what actually happened this week in
14:58
markets because the narrative is Bitcoin sold off during the war.
15:01
And that's true -2.4%. But here's what else happened.
15:05
The S&P 500 hit 2026 lows. Gold ETF shed 30 tons in a week
15:12
were raising every gain from 2026200 and 40,000 traders got
15:16
liquidated across crypto markets.
15:18
The safe haven assets were not having a safe haven week.
15:22
During all this, Bitcoin lost 2.4%, which is like a normal
15:26
Thursday for Bitcoin. And now I know what you're
15:28
thinking. That's not exactly inspiring.
15:30
And you're right that it's not the Bitcoin goes up and
15:33
everything goes down thesis. But let's contextualize what
15:36
we're talking about here. This was a geopolitical shock, a
15:39
real shooting war in the Middle East, the biggest oil choke
15:42
point in the world under threat, Treasury yield spiking, the S&P
15:46
in a free fall, and Bitcoin held in the 70s.
15:51
Let's talk about gold for a second because gold is
15:54
interesting again. Gold hit $4000 an ounce earlier
15:57
this year. It's been the trade of 2025 and
15:59
2026. Central banks are buying, retail
16:03
is buying. Everyone loves gold, especially
16:04
Costco members. And then gold ETFs shed 30 tons
16:08
this week. 30 tons gone in one week.
16:11
Every 2026 gain wiped out. What does that tell you?
16:14
It tells you that when institutional investors, pension
16:17
funds, hedge funds, the folks managing other people's money
16:21
need to raise cash in a stress event, they sell what's liquid,
16:25
They sell what they can sell. And gold ETFs are liquid.
16:28
Bitcoin is also liquid. And Bitcoin dropped 2.4%.
16:32
Gold ETFs lost more than that in underlying NAB terms while also
16:36
suffering massive outflows. Now I'm not here to argue that
16:41
Bitcoin is a better short term hedge than gold.
16:44
Well, I literally am here for that.
16:46
I mean, we're not called simply gold now are we?
16:50
But I'm also here to point out that the story Bitcoin is just a
16:53
risk asset that gets dumped in a crisis is not what the data says
16:57
this week. The Bitcoin options market is
17:00
the most defensively positioned it's been since June 2021.
17:04
Vanek's Chain Check report this week shows the put call open
17:08
interest ratio averaged .77, its highest in nearly five years.
17:12
Put premiums elevated, volatility skewed defensive.
17:16
Everyone is hedged. I understand nothing.
17:18
The last time the options market was this defensive?
17:20
June 2021 Bitcoin was at $30,000.
17:24
Six months later it was at $69,000 and that's over double
17:28
the price for all you math Wizards.
17:30
Now, we all know that past performance doesn't equal
17:33
something something something I know.
17:36
But here's the question worth sitting with.
17:38
Who is buying those puts? Who is that defensively
17:41
positioned? It's not retail.
17:43
Retail's fear and greed is in extreme fear right now as of
17:46
this recording and not paying premium for downside protection.
17:49
It's institutions and the institutions don't pay for puts.
17:52
They don't have corresponding long positions to protect.
17:55
The options market right now is telling you someone has a lot of
17:58
Bitcoin and they're paying to keep it.
18:00
Stanley. Morgan Stanley just filed for a
18:01
spot Bitcoin ETF, ticker MSBT Fidelity as their custodian.
18:06
BNY Mellon handling cash custody, seed capital $1
18:10
million. This is the first major U.S.
18:12
bank to file for its own spot Bitcoin ETF.
18:15
Not a brokerage product, not third party access their own
18:18
fund with their name on it. You know what Morgan Stanley is
18:21
not a Bitcoin maximalist. You know what Morgan Stanley is
18:24
A fiduciary institution that manages hundreds of billions of
18:28
dollars in client assets and has spent the last three years
18:32
watching BlackRock and Fidelity print money off Bitcoin ETF fees
18:36
and eat their lunch. This is not ideological.
18:38
This is competitive pressure and competitive pressure from Morgan
18:41
Stanley is a different signal than AVC Fund tweeting about its
18:44
digital gold and then their strategy.
18:47
Michael Saylor's company bought 89,000 Bitcoin in Q1 alone, $6.2
18:52
billion worth of Bitcoin in one quarter.
18:55
While everything else was selling off, while the war was
18:58
happening, while yields were spiking.
19:00
Strategy just bought that war 89,000 Bitcoin at a time when
19:04
the fear and Greed index was an extreme fear, at a time when
19:08
240,000 traders were getting liquidated, at a time when the
19:12
macro environment was objectively terrifying.
19:15
And sailors quote this week, in case you missed it, in seven
19:18
years Bitcoin will crash from $1 million to $750,000 and people
19:23
will say Bitcoin is dead then too.
19:24
The man has no range above target.
19:27
Debasement largely driven by that fiscal excess.
19:32
And so it's, it's more stagflationary rather than kind
19:34
of the disinflation that we normally see during, you know,
19:37
kind of weaker economic periods. Yeah.
19:39
And you know. Lynn, when we talk about the,
19:41
the bearish side of things, I always get in trouble because
19:43
the bulls push me back on this. And they say, you know, they
19:46
argue that the wealth effect is real, that the top 10% own the
19:49
bulk of the assets and, and, and they continue to spend.
19:52
I mean, even if manufacturer is, is, is weaker, they'd say that
19:56
the strength and service keeps the US out of recession.
19:59
Does that argument carry weight? To some extent I mean that.
20:02
That's why I'm not too bearish. Here's the macro.
20:05
Picture Lynn Alden is describing, and this is the
20:08
thing that ties all three topics together.
20:10
We're not in a normal cycle. We're not in a recession.
20:13
Fed cuts, recovery, growth, repeat.
20:16
That playbook assumes the central bank has room to cut
20:19
rates. Reflate the economy and
20:21
everything normalizes. It doesn't have that room
20:23
anymore. When the Fed cuts rates now, it
20:26
risks re accelerating inflation that's still above target.
20:29
When the Fed holds rates, it accelerates the debt servicing
20:32
crisis on the $36 trillion. When the government spends to
20:36
simulate, it adds to that debt. When it cuts to reduce the debt,
20:40
it risks recession. Every lever pulls in the wrong
20:44
direction simultaneously. That's precisely what Lynn Alden
20:48
means by stagflation. That's the above target
20:50
debasement driven by fiscal excess.
20:53
That's the environment where you don't just print your way to
20:55
normal. The old options cut, print,
20:58
stimulate. They create new problems faster
21:00
than they solve the old ones. And in that environment, what's
21:04
the one asset that has a fixed supply, no central bank, no
21:07
government lever, and no interest meter?
21:10
You know the answer. You watch this show.
21:12
I'm not going to insult you by saying it's Bitcoin.
21:14
Duh, because it's Bitcoin. Yeah, let me land this one.
21:18
Like the Fed in a macroeconomic crisis, softer than the cheese
21:21
grater, moving one cycle per quarter, whatever that means.
21:24
The Iran ceasefire is real news. The Hormuz reopening is real
21:28
news. Oil prices coming down is real
21:31
news. And none of it changes the
21:33
structural picture. 42 basis points, $413 million a day.
21:39
In extra interest, that's an aircraft carrier month.
21:41
If I mention that, that's what ended the war, not strategy.
21:46
Meth another clue the dollar is dying.
21:49
India in the Strait of Hormuz with the Candlestick.
21:52
I mean the yuan, the Petro yuan bypass infrastructure is
21:55
operational. The peace deal doesn't close it.
21:58
Morgan Stanley 89,000 Bitcoin options market institutions are
22:03
not trading the war, they are pricing the fiscal reality.
22:06
The war just made impossible to ignore.
22:08
Bitcoin may not be up this week, but Bitcoin is up forever.
22:12
Laura, real quick before I sign off, Club Orange, formerly known
22:15
as the Orange pill app, This is the premier app where bitcoiners
22:18
go to connect in person, real humans with digital avatars.
22:23
This is the app where they all come together in a Bitcoin
22:27
community and you can find me on there.
22:28
I'm at Ocean's OSHINS. Tell me what you thought of
22:31
today's show If you want. Tell me if you have been
22:34
transacting you want lately, if you know, if you're trying to
22:37
get through the Strait of Hormuz, whatever it is you want
22:39
to tell me, I respond to all my messages.
22:41
Shout out to MO and Michael and Mana and Mash mining and Mateo
22:46
and Murdoch and Mark. May all your may be merry.
22:49
cluborange.org, formerly known as the Orange Pill app.
22:52
Go download it today. I'll see you there.
22:54
Here's the thing that nobody wants to say out loud in the
22:56
financial press. the United States went to war to defend the
23:00
dollar's role in global oil markets.
23:02
Yes, the war lasted until the bond market made it too
23:05
expensive. While it was happening, a
23:08
country that is not aligned with the United States used the
23:11
opportunity to run a Yuan oil settlement transaction through a
23:15
choke point. America was trying to close war
23:18
to defend the dollar, accelerated the dollar's
23:20
decline. Oh the irony man.
23:24
When your money is backed by political power, rather than fix
23:27
supply, every political decision effects its value.
23:30
Every war, every deficit, every interest rate change, every
23:34
sanctions regime. You are not outside that system.
23:38
Your savings are inside of it. Your pension is inside of it.
23:42
Your government is making decisions with it that you did
23:44
not vote for and you cannot out opt out of.
23:47
Except you can buy Bitcoin. Not because Bitcoin fixes all of
23:51
this and it does not because Satoshi is going to swoop in and
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dissolve the Fed and he will. Because while all of this is
23:58
happening, there's an asset with a fixed supply, no central bank,
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no political lever, and no interest meter.
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It doesn't care about Hormuz, it doesn't care about the yuan.
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It doesn't care about the $36 trillion of debt.
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It just exists outside of all of it waiting.
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Go steady, Bitcoin. Thank you so much for watching
24:17
this video. If you like what you see and you
24:18
want to see more, make sure you hit that like button below.
24:20
Or you can subscribe to the Simply Bitcoin channel for more
24:23
content like this. We're coming out with it every
24:25
single day of the week. Also, do not forget to hit that
24:27
notification bell. You just leave us a comment if
24:29
you like. If you want to find me, I'm on X
24:31
at run Dance Bitcoin, otherwise I'm oceans.
24:34
This is beyond Bitcoin. Until next time.