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New Records: Why the Shutdown Couldn’t Stop the Bulls · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome back to Spy Trader , the podcast that dissects the market while you sip your morning coffee .
• 0:06
  I'm your host , Barry Bullish , and it is 6 am on Saturday , October 4th , 2025 , Pacific time .
• 0:13
  We’re coming off one seriously resilient trading week .
• 0:17
  Despite a U.S.
• 0:18
  government shutdown that officially started on September 30th , the major indices didn’t blink .
• 0:24
  They actually shrugged it off and kept climbing .
• 0:28
  The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both hit new closing records this week , with the S&P 500 climbing about 1.2% and the Dow up 1.3% weekly .
• 0:41
  The Nasdaq Composite had the strongest weekly gain , up 1.4% , but it ended Friday fractionally lower , dragged down by specific stock news .
• 0:52
  The big story of the week isn't just the records , but the sectors driving them .
• 0:57
  Technology and AI continued their dominance , led by instruments like the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 1:04
  But surprisingly , Health Care was also a standout performer , with Health Services gaining a notable 2.05% in recent trading days , pointing toward potentially defensive strength captured by ETFs like the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund or companies like Eli Lilly .
• 1:23
  Now for the drama .
• 1:25
  The government shutdown meant we missed the crucial September jobs report , creating a data blackout for the Federal Reserve .
• 1:33
  However , private indicators , like the recent ADP payrolls report showing cooling , confirm the market's belief : the Fed will stick to its plan of gradual rate cuts through 2026 .
• 1:44
  This dovish outlook is the primary engine keeping this rally going , overriding political turmoil .
• 1:51
  We saw some wild stock movements this week based on specific company news .
• 1:57
  Fair Isaac , the provider of the FICO score , surged 18% after announcing it would bypass credit bureaus and offer scores directly to mortgage providers .
• 2:07
  Naturally , that sent its competitors , Equifax and TransUnion , tumbling 8.5% and 11% respectively .
• 2:16
  Meanwhile , Palantir sank 7.5% on Friday after a report surfaced about security issues in a new battlefield network it's developing for the U.S.
• 2:26
  Army .
• 2:28
  Even growth darling Tesla closed down 5% earlier in the week despite reporting betterthanexpected thirdquarter delivery figures .
• 2:36
  The core analysis here is simple : investors are prioritizing continued strong corporate growth , particularly in AI , and the predictable path of Federal Reserve rate cuts over temporary political headlines like the government shutdown .
• 2:51
  The market is confident .
• 2:53
  For our recommendations this week , let's focus on stability with a growth tilt .
• 2:59
  First , maintain your core exposure .
• 3:01
  The market is setting records , so use broad instruments like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , and maintain concentrated exposure to the AI theme using the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ .
• 3:16
  The underlying fundamental momentum in companies like NVIDIA remains too strong to ignore .
• 3:22
  Second , exploit the volatility .
• 3:25
  Dips in fundamentally sound companies can be buying opportunities .
• 3:30
  The recent pullback in Tesla , despite good delivery numbers , is an idiosyncratic dip to monitor for longterm accumulation .
• 3:38
  Additionally , for diversification , look toward cyclicals that benefit from future rate cuts , like the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF , or the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , VNQ .
• 3:51
  Finally , if you want to capitalize on the expected rate cuts , utilize fixed income .
• 3:57
  The best instrument for rate sensitivity is the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF , TLT , which is highly responsive to changes in interest rate expectations .
• 4:09
  That's all for this episode of Spy Trader .
• 4:12
  Stay cautious , stay informed , and always trade wisely .