Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Federated's Orlando: Germany, Japan Keeping Lid on Yield(Audio)

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Federated's Orlando: Germany, Japan Keeping Lid on Yield(Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: I'm Charlie pellet Hess and P five hundred indecks holding
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  Speaker 1: at the highest since July, bolstered by speculation Borrowing costs
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  Speaker 1: will remain lower for longer amid moderate growth. Right now,
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  Speaker 1: the SMP up seven to twenty one nineteen. That's a
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  Speaker 1: gain of four tenths of one percent. Then aztat Compositive
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  Speaker 1: Index higher now by fourteen points of three tents of
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  Speaker 1: one percent. Town Industrial is up sixty six points, a
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  Speaker 1: gain of four tenths of one percent. Ten year of
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  Speaker 1: five thirty seconds yield there one point seven oh percent.
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  Speaker 1: Gold up seventeen ten, the ounce to twelve sixty four,
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  Speaker 1: a gain of one point four percent. Crude oil holding
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  Speaker 1: above fifty one dollars of barrel up ninety two cents
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  Speaker 1: now again narrow one point nine percent. I'm Charlie Pealoton.
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  Speaker 1: that's your Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Katherine Cowdery. You're listening
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  Speaker 1: to Taking Stock with Kathleen and Pin Fox on Bloomberg Radio.
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  Speaker 1: Stocks in the United States move higher today, the S
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  Speaker 1: and P five posting a game right now, about a
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  Speaker 1: quarter of a percent as it moves perhaps to the
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  Speaker 1: all time high. Oil prices pushing higher fifty dollars of barrel,
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  Speaker 1: and the US dollar fell. So what's not to like? Well?
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  Speaker 1: Philip Orlando is the chief equity market strategist for Federated Investors.
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  Speaker 1: He joins us here at Pershing Inside twenty sixteen conference
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  Speaker 1: at the Higher Regency in Orlando, Florida. Philip Orlando, thanks
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  Speaker 1: for being Linus, Thanks for having me back. All right.
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  Speaker 1: So I was looking at the SMP five hundred, keep
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  Speaker 1: reading this, you know, approaching this all time high. Interest
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  Speaker 1: rates are low, oil fifty dollars a barrel. What's not
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  Speaker 1: to like about this? Environment. Well, we're very nervous for
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  Speaker 1: a number of reasons. Evaluations are stretched. You're trading up
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  Speaker 1: at around eighteen times this year's earnings right now. The
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  Speaker 1: fundamentals right now aren't particularly good. G d P growth
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  Speaker 1: has been decelerating for the last year. We're at eight
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  Speaker 1: tenths of one percent in the first quarter. We've been
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  Speaker 1: in an earnings recession now for the last year. Revenues
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  Speaker 1: and earnings down year of a year, the last four
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  Speaker 1: or five quarters. The labor market is stalled. Inflation, core
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  Speaker 1: PC has ticked down the last couple of months. You've
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  Speaker 1: got this Briggsit vote coming up, a lot of uncertainty
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  Speaker 1: surrounding what the fit is thinking, what they're gonna do. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: Yet stocks are up, uh, you know, eighteen percent here
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  Speaker 1: over the course of the last couple of months. So uh,
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  Speaker 1: the seasonals aren't particularly great. We don't think the market
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  Speaker 1: has really focused on any of the potential instability with
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  Speaker 1: this election coming up this year, and there's there's a
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  Speaker 1: boatload of stuff to concern ourselves with. So for all
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  Speaker 1: those reasons, we're saying, all right, let's let's take some
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  Speaker 1: profits here and uh uh and move to the sidelines.
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  Speaker 1: That that maybe we could see a five or teen
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  Speaker 1: percent correction over the course of this art. Well, so
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  Speaker 1: you are being cautious defensive, What is there anything in
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  Speaker 1: particular you would sell? Would you just say lighting up
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  Speaker 1: across the board? Would it be like you know? And
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  Speaker 1: and do you do you get out of some of
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  Speaker 1: your more momentum, more ented stocks, some technology and get
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  Speaker 1: into something more defensive. And if so, what so? What
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  Speaker 1: we've done in the Federated Global Allocation Fund, I think
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  Speaker 1: is exactly UH captures that strategy. UH sixty forty stocks, bonds,
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  Speaker 1: it's sort of a neutral allocation. We're sitting at fifty
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  Speaker 1: eight percent right now, where a couple of ticks below neutral.
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  Speaker 1: That's the lowest the allocation has been since the Great Recession. Now,
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  Speaker 1: to put that in some context, in in March of
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  Speaker 1: oh nine, as we were coming out of the Great Recession,
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  Speaker 1: stocks training at eleven times earnings, we're probably eight percent stocks.
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  Speaker 1: We're sitting at fifty eight percent now with with multiples
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  Speaker 1: at eighteen times earnings. So we've got a little bit
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  Speaker 1: more cash than normal, a little bit more bonds than normal,
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  Speaker 1: and within the equity allocation, we have shifted towards those
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  Speaker 1: more defensive categories reets, telecoms, utilities, stafles, healthcare. So we're
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  Speaker 1: we're looking for the lower beta, higher dividend yielding categories
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  Speaker 1: as a means of trying to hide out here, tread
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  Speaker 1: some water until we can get some better visibility on
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  Speaker 1: what's happening in terms of underlying fundamentals and and this
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  Speaker 1: election season. So you mentioned bonds just the wanting. Do
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  Speaker 1: you think we're in a bond bubble? Treasury yields at
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  Speaker 1: we're worry about right now and two and a half
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  Speaker 1: percent for the thirty year, we focus more on the tens.
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  Speaker 1: UH tens are low, no question, But I don't know
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  Speaker 1: that domestic economic fundamentals are driving that bus. I think
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  Speaker 1: the bigger story here is what are competing yields look
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  Speaker 1: like in Japan and Germany. So so our bond guys
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  Speaker 1: would say, throw out everything you know about domestic fundamentals.
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  Speaker 1: The only thing that matters is that j G b
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  Speaker 1: s are negative and UH and and buns are yielding
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  Speaker 1: twenty basis points. And so if you're a global UH
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  Speaker 1: fixed income investor and you've got to park money in
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  Speaker 1: a developed instrument, your three choices or Japan Germany, in
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  Speaker 1: the US and and on the basis of the yield,
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  Speaker 1: that's an easy decision. And so those instruments Germany and Japan,
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  Speaker 1: I think are keeping a lid on on where our
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  Speaker 1: yields are and where they're going. Well, I just I
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  Speaker 1: just have to put that the numbers with that, because
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  Speaker 1: the German Bund is now UH and for the rallying
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  Speaker 1: today Phil down to zero point zero five three and
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  Speaker 1: the Commerce Bunk one of their guys is saying that
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  Speaker 1: zero percent is possible. Well, it's so close now, that's
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  Speaker 1: an easy bit. And as for Japan, negative zero point
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  Speaker 1: one three on their j GP. But of course if
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  Speaker 1: you wanted to pick up some bonds in Brazil you
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  Speaker 1: can get more than five. Yeah, but there's risk in Brazil.
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  Speaker 1: You know, we're leading people away in handcuffs, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's it's all sorts of stuff there. So again, from
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  Speaker 1: from the perspective of quality, UH, Japan, Germany and the
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  Speaker 1: US are the only games in town, and with the
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  Speaker 1: US at one seventy and the others essentially at zero,
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  Speaker 1: that that's an easy decision. And I think that's why
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  Speaker 1: our yields are where they are. You can sort of
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  Speaker 1: ignore what the underlying fundamentals are in terms of studying
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  Speaker 1: and analyzing the US market. Tell us about the fundamentals,
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  Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to manufacturing in the United States,
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  Speaker 1: maybe even automobiles, because that has seen a very good
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  Speaker 1: sales run. Well, you've seen a great sales run. We
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  Speaker 1: redounded about nine million annualized units at the bottom of
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  Speaker 1: the cycle. In February of oh nine, we've doubled eighteen
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  Speaker 1: million units. Now we have come off that pace over
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  Speaker 1: the last six months or so. We're you know, closer
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  Speaker 1: to seventeen and a half million units right now. We're
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  Speaker 1: we're fine with the auto market staying in the seventeen
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  Speaker 1: eighteen million unit run, right, but we're not gonna double
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  Speaker 1: again from here or or go up, you know, buy
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  Speaker 1: another nine million units. I think we're gonna go sideways
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  Speaker 1: for the next couple of years. And I think the
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  Speaker 1: principal reason for that is because there is still a
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  Speaker 1: tremendous amount of untapped demand and that the average age
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  Speaker 1: of the auto fleet in the United States right now
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  Speaker 1: is probably something in the ten eleven years. Normally that
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  Speaker 1: number would be seven or eight years. So so as
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  Speaker 1: people feel more comfortable they're going out at the margin
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  Speaker 1: and replacing their clunkers with new cars, and that's created
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  Speaker 1: a surge. But we're at a point in the cycle
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  Speaker 1: right now and some folks have started to mention this
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  Speaker 1: where there's some questions about are we are we sort
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  Speaker 1: of giving these hars way, much like we're giving houses
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  Speaker 1: way leading up to the bursting of the housing bubble
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  Speaker 1: in terms of all tight and subprime auto loans, And
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  Speaker 1: so there's some question about the quality of the paper
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  Speaker 1: that's now out there at this part in the cycle.
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  Speaker 1: Are we chasing the cats and the dogs? You know
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  Speaker 1: with this recovery, You know, as long in the tooth
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  Speaker 1: as it is, you don't feel but you are somebody
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  Speaker 1: who is not um naturally or inherently bearished cautious. So
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  Speaker 1: when I hear you telling me all these reasons you're cautious.
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  Speaker 1: You're looking at valuations, are certain of the bed, you're
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  Speaker 1: looking at bregit, you're lightning up your portfolio. I take
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  Speaker 1: this as a as a pretty serious sign that you are.
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  Speaker 1: This is a this is never not even have been
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  Speaker 1: here before, but you're you're taking all these wealth signs.
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  Speaker 1: This is this is freaky because we're the idiots that
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  Speaker 1: that nine years ago were coming out of the Great
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  Speaker 1: Recessions trough. We're the ones that said, you know, the
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  Speaker 1: stock market has the potential to double within two years
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  Speaker 1: and quadruple or hidden all time rec high within four
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  Speaker 1: which was a ridiculous forecast. Um, except that we got
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  Speaker 1: it right. Um. So, so our inherent bias is to
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  Speaker 1: look for the silver lining to be positive. And and
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  Speaker 1: as we look at the landscape right now, we're seeing
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  Speaker 1: a preponderance of negatives out there, and it's hard for
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  Speaker 1: us to continue to expect to see the market move
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  Speaker 1: up here without some sort of a consolidation until we
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  Speaker 1: get some clarity on what some of these issues are. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: ten seconds, whence if I'm going to raise the key
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  Speaker 1: rate fil Orlando, I feel really good about December. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: there may be something ahead of the election, but that's
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  Speaker 1: gonna be a much tougher call. Wow. Okay, Orlando, great
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  Speaker 1: to have you here. Thanks for having Meldo in Orlando.
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  Speaker 1: Persians inside conference the highatt Region Regency in er Lando.
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  Speaker 1: Philor Lando is a chief equity strategist at Federated Investor.
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  Speaker 1: Is always great having you up upon the show. I'm
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  Speaker 1: Kathleen Hayes along with pim Fox that next movers and
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  Speaker 1: Shakers Dave also our stock senator will be back, and
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  Speaker 1: then a look at the latest drum the political political
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  Speaker 1: trail Kathleen Hayes pomp Fox, taking Stock, Boomberg Radio. H