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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Just told Big Clients to BUY Before This Date + Stock Market News 09 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-morning live stream.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: On a day where big tech is under attack.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: The department of justice wants to break up big tech companies and the market is kind of going.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Really, that's a scary thought.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Of course, a lot of other things going on as well, but overall, I actually think we have a silver lining case here that is significant and bullish and lovely, and I want to break that down for you.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Make sure you're the best informed investor out there.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Give you all the data points that Wall Street is peddling, smash the like button.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Everybody there and Ben appreciate the thumbs down.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Uh, so, um, stream quality today.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Well, we'll see.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Uh, that's all I can promise, to be honest with you.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: So this is the big news us ways google break up in historic big tech antitrust case.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: The last time the us government broke up anything was at&t, and I think we all know how that story went.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: It wasn't particularly good for the consumer ultimately, was it?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So let's go a little bit into that.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I'll show you the pre-market, which is actually pretty decent.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Google only down a third of a percentage point, so the market not really believing the government, I would think here.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Tesla down a touch.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Som's down a percentage point.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: That's about the only pain we've got, which is pretty decent, right?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: We have also today, at 2 pm, new York time, the Fed minutes out and they are enveloped in a bunch of speeches from Fed presidents lots of them today so that's going to be interesting to see.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, very interesting to see the Fed minutes and how that big cut came about.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So definitely useful, carlos, appreciate you.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Looking sharp, well, we got to try right.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Plus, we're up 94% today, which is not too bad for the year.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn how we do that, I'll be live in literally 12 hours to teach you our three-step system.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: It's literally just three steps and I'll teach you those three steps.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: You walk away with my rule book.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I think about 500, 600 of you have already signed up for that, which will be fun.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So come and join me.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Be on time.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Phoenixfriendsorg slash.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Training at in literally 12 hours Now.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Training at in literally 12 hours Now.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: There are a couple of things that have me feeling rather optimistically about the stock market and our wealth progression here.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: We've got US lending.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Commercial and industrial lending continues to go up and up and up and up, and this is data that starts in June 2023.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: And it's been recovering very, very nicely and that's a good thing.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Right, you want lots of lending, so the economy grows and everybody's happy and builds more things.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: It's also the strongest year yet for the S&P I'm just going to draw over that purple line there, which is what the S&P is this year.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: So this is 2024.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: And all the other lines below are the last 24 years.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So we are doing very, very nicely.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: And you know what Momentum is a big thing.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I make money on momentum, I trade momentum, so I appreciate that we are on a good momentum streak.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: It's likely to actually continue, and the Nasdaq seasonally.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: We are here, as the French say, and that would therefore mean we should go up another what?
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: 6% by the end, which is serious, and boatloads of flooding across basically all of central Florida there, which is definitely not a good thing.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: I had lunch today with an American friend of mine and I asked him why is it that everything always flows away in the US when they have these hurricanes every year?
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: And he said it's kind of weird.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I don't really understand why you don't put the power lines in the ground or why you don't build houses on concrete, and I don't really understand it.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, florida is a pretty wealthy state by and large, so I'm not really quite sure what the theory is there, but maybe I don't really understand it.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Anybody understand it If you're American, let me know.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Why does Florida not build for hurricanes?
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can build for hurricanes, right, we get them here and not a lot happens, to be honest with you, because everything is built from concrete and all the power lines and stuff are dug into the ground, so not a great deal really happens.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: All the power lines and stuff are dug into the ground, so not a great deal really happens.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, not tending to criticize Florida, just sort of wondering why you sent 100 billion to the Ukraine.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: You could maybe build some infrastructure there, right?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: American friend?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, I have one.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: The token one House made of paper is cheaper.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Is that really it, though?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you have to rebuild it every year, I mean it doesn't make any sense, right?
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I mean all you got to do really is just put in concrete walls, and at least that way the main structure doesn't blow away, and maybe you use a few roof tiles or so on.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: But it's peculiar that houses are made out of wood in a hurricane zone.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I don't really get it.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I get it if there is, you know it's an impoverished area and so on.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I sort of get that.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: But a lot of Florida isn't right, so it's kind of weird.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: And then, yeah, the insurance doesn't work, and all that kind of says it's kind of weird.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: And then, yeah, the insurance doesn't work, and all that kind of says, felix, don't talk common sense, we wouldn't want that.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Now would we?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, swipe away.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, new houses are being built hurricane-proof.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Well, that makes some sense.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: And you are a lineman?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, how do they build power lines above ground for hurricanes?
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Are they all like reinforced kind of stainless steel type things, or what is it all about?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: It seems weird.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: It seems a little odd to me that all this gets blown away every year.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: But anyway, we digress, don't we?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: We had some good news here that we are at least historic basis.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: We should see a very nice finish to the year here, which is what I'm looking forward to, and we're hoping to get therefore over 100% up this year.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Right, 94% so far.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: We can't rest on our laurels yet, can we?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: But seriously.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Come and join me in 12 hours at 9pm Eastern time if you're not being blown away I hope you're not At felixfrenzelogscom, and I'll teach you how we manage this little feat.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I don't promise you there's outcomes, obviously that'll be silly, but I promise to teach you my rules and my structure and walk you through an actual trade and so on.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Now there is more reason to be bullish.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: The Atlanta Fed puts out GDP estimates and they are very bullish.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: They came in just yesterday at 3.2%, which is an upwards move.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: So the economy seems reasonably strong, largely because the government is spending boatloads of money.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: But it doesn't really matter where the money comes from for us investors.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: So strong economy, right, that's really what we want, isn't it?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: It's not what we want.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: And then look at this.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: This is probably the chart of all charts and it's a little.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: It's a little uh fuzzy.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: But what's the white line?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: The white line is the trailing, so the last 12 months.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Trailing is a stupid word, isn't it?
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: It's basically the earnings per share of the S&P 500.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: And the forecast is this little dotted line here, that one.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: That's the forecast.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So you can see how, historically, this chart starts in 1989.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: This was 2007.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: This was 2019.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: You can see that there is this monstrous rally expected.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Why is everybody going to get more profitable?
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: There's the answer AI.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: I was going to write ET, so sort of same thing.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: It'll just make it easier to grow, it'll make it cheaper to do pretty much everything.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: And if you're not using AI, please go and learn.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Just go and use the AI and ask it how do I use you and it'll tell you, because it's insanely useful.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I would say my productivity is probably double what it was a year ago, just output-wise.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: It's incredible what you can get done.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: So the white line is Felix's trading account, something like that.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Well, we don't look actually that far off, do we?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: It's quite a nice comparison.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: That's the green line, that's our trading account.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: It's just not too bad, right.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But yeah, look, if this pans out, then all you got to do is own shares, and you should do very, very well.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Do you still see a pullback?
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I think it's still possible.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to be choppy till the 5th.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: And the other thing, of course, is there is the Israel situation, whereas the Israeli defense minister was meant to be in the US right now and Netanyahu said don't go.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And that's not an impression I was just shouting generally and probably because, well, he's going to talk to Biden first, which is a weird person to talk to.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, isn't it concerning that the one person that Netanyahu consults on where he's hitting Iran is President Biden?
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I think it's concerning, but hopefully there are some people on that call who actually are conscious.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: So that's, of course, an issue to see what's going to happen there.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: That could cause some serious volatility.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: It could push oil prices up and if you look at oil prices right now, they are pretty calm, which is good.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: But what is oil?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Hang on, what have we got here?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Futures, oil futures yeah, they're at 72.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We were at 76 two days ago.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Pretty moderate stuff, right.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: But you hit Iran's oil installations and I think you're back up here.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: You're back in the 100 plus 100, 100, 10, 120.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: That's sort of what the market expects.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: So this could be a big one and without do well, it would cause inflation and the Fed can't cut interest rates and all that sort of malarkey, so it could be a big one.