Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | New Week, New Streak | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/6/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | New Week, New Streak | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/6/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: In your chips. Black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something, ne somebody for show. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me?
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Nice now, hold on me, but it'll get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now, what's up, everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: It's towed back with you With Toadstool Sports Monday, July seventh,
• 1:34
  Speaker 5: We did have a winning day on the show yesterday.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: I tune in one. Mets first five was a winner.
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: They hung on for the full game win with a
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: lot of runs scored late in that game.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: I'm glad I was not on the full game in
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: that one.
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: They were winning five to three at the end of
• 1:51
  Speaker 5: the first five after I believe Nolan McClain gave up
• 1:54
  Speaker 5: all the runs that he gave up really early and
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: settled down and the Mets were able to get that
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: thing done. Did not get the underwright in Detroit and
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: Texas started pitching wasn't really that bad.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: In the game.
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: Texas's bullpen was really what kind of blew that game?
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: Like they took Kumar Rocker out kind of early and
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: the bullpen immediately gave up multiple runs, which you know,
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: I mean, Texas's bullpen is good, and part of the
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: handicap was banking on that bullpen. The game went over
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: in the first five too, so it didn't matter which
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: way it was played. Maybe they should have just left
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: Rocker in, let him get out of that jam that
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: he was in. I mean, I don't know, man, and
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: then Norway was a winner. They went out right. So
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: I was thinking about that because I'm like, well, you know,
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: I usually sprinkle a little bit on the money line
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: when I have an underdog, and yeah, I think you
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: should do that in soccer as well. But it's like, well,
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: which underdog line do you put it on?
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: Like you could put it on the to advance, But
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: I felt like, because I'm doing the spread and it's
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: the first ninety minutes, just throw you know, like thirty
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: bucks or whatever on the three way line money line,
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean, and then if it hits
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: to get more so I hadn't thought about that, Like
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: that was the first time. I think that was only
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: the second time I played like a spread underdog. I
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: think I didn't think about it with the Ghana one,
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: but of course they also didn't win. But yesterday I'm like, well,
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: wait a minute, like we should be on this money
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: line here, so get a little bit extra out of that.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: Kind of pissed I did not go with England because
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: England won even though they had every everything go against
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: them in that game and they still won. I mean,
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: they were winning the game by multiple goals repeatedly. They
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: were the better team in the game until they got
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: red carded. If you saw that game, like I think
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: the game was rigged, like to try to help Mexico.
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: England gets red carded, so they're down a man for
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: the last thirty plus minutes of the game, and they
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: got called for a penalty. So there was a penalty
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: kick for Mexico, which they scored on and that's what
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: made it three to two. England down in man, You're like,
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: oh shit, like Mexico is definitely gonna tie this. And
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: of course once England was down to man, obviously Mexico
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: won the possession battle after that because they have a
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: man advantage, you know what I mean. It's like being
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: on a power play, and I mean it's not quite
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: that because you have eleven guys on the field and
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: not not five six whatever. But even so, like that
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: really changed the complexion of the game. But somehow England's
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: still held on and they were having to play in
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: ten thousand foot elevation, you know, in front of.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: A hostile crowd.
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: So yeah, England is clearly the better team. That was
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: the way that this World Cup set up. I mean,
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: Mexico is not that good. They should not have Mexico
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: should not have had that many advantages in that game,
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: And for England to overcome that.
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but we'll see what happens England and Norway is
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: gonna be interesting.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Man. I don't know. I don't know what else to
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: say about this. Herat what's Kyle? What's up?
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: I woke up early. I'm like whatever, I'll just do
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: this show.
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I told you not to take Mexico, dude.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Uh huh, all right, why do you listen to me? Then?
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I should have just been on uh
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: on England. But I felt stronger about Norway, and Norway
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: outstated Brazil. If you look at what happened in that game,
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: Norway won that game, like legitimately, like it was not
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: misleading really whatever, Like yeah, if you look at the stats,
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: it was an it was a Norway win, and that's
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: what it was, all right, short card today.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: I only have one play today.
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: It is in baseball, and honestly, like we're getting like
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: what I think is a really good price on this
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: baseball play. Plus it's a situational play. Plus we're backing
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: a good starting pitcher. I don't know how we're getting
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: this price on this, so maybe maybe I should be
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: worried about it. But I also think the public is
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: not even on it, so uh, well, you should have listened,
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: because I would have had a I gave out a
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: fairly strong opinion on England, and I'm kind of pissed
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: that I just didn't make it a play. Maybe I'm
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: being too selective. Philadelphia, Kansas City. This is a wrap around,
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: or not a wrap around.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: But this series is continuing.
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: I think they didn't play on Friday because of the
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: World Cup, so this series is finishing it today. It's
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: a split series right now. You know, I expect both
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: teams to show up here. The Philadelphia is the better team.
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia has the better starting pitcher on them out. Philadelphia
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: has the better bullpen, so they got a lot of
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: advance and probably the better offense. They have like every
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: advantage here. Kansas City us four relief pitchers yesterday Philadelphia
• 6:42
  Speaker 5: used two. I believe Kansas City actually won the game yesterday.
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: They did five to two, so that did end a
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: losing streak for them. Sometimes when a team ends a
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: losing streak, it will give them new momentum. But I
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: don't know about that.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: Well, when we dig into the matchup numbers here, you know,
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: I mean maybe Kansas City has a chance in this game.
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: I mean their bullpen is awful though, so there's no
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: way you could back Kansas City full game here.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: They have the worst ranked bullpen in baseball here.
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: That's based on whip. They're not good offensively either. Based
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: on ops they're twenty second. Philly is twentieth. Bullpen wise,
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: Philly is fifteenth. Philadelphia has their best pitcher going, Christopher Sanchez.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: He's in the Cy Young conversation.
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: It's just that there are a lot of Cy Young
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: candidates in the NL to Era one point zero nine whip.
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: He's not as good on the road though. He's been
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: absolutely untouchable at home. On the road not so much
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: three point eight to ninety R and his opponent batting
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: average is actually bad on the road to ninety seven.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: That's not very good at all.
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: Uh. He's been pitching well though, obviously, but he is
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: vulnerable on the road at least.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: He's had a pretty low hit rate on the.
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: Season, really low walk rate, which I think has been
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: kind of an issue for him in the past, high
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate, a good ground ball rate too, so all
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: the things you like to see.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: He's been good recently too.
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: Like even his kind of bad start against Washington, he
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: still had good command numbers in that one.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Got a little bit unlucky. He's still won the game.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: He didn't get a win in it, but Philly still won. However,
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: against kids a city, he has not been good. They
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: only have six hitters who have seen him. They have
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: thirty nine at bats against him. They've done a lot
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: of damage against him. Three to zero Waight at average
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: eight forty eight ohps, nine to five strike out walk ratio,
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: Marte and Thomas both do a ton of damage against him.
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: Not the greatest matchup for him. Plus he's on the road,
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: so Sanchez might get hit a little bit in this one.
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: No camera, just pitching for kids a city. I don't
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: know how trustworthy he really is. I mean, I like him.
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: I liked him last year. This year has been really
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: up and down for him. Four point nine five IVRA
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: one point four to one whip is definitely not good.
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: He's struggled at home now that they move the walls
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: and five point four to four home ye RA.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: Two ninety eight opponent batting average at home also not good.
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: Struggled recently. His last four starts really have not been
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: very good. His walk numbers increased over his last couple
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: of starts, both against Tampa Bay, but that doesn't look
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: good to me at all. He's got a high hit
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: rate on the season, which is not good. His walk
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: rate is actually low, though strikeout rate is mediocre. Numbers
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: against Philly not great. Fifty nine at bats or excuse
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: fifteen at bats. They hardly have any at bats against
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: him though only six of their heroes have face and
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: fifteen at bats. I don't know why I said fifty
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: nine two sixty seven, batting average nine to seventy nine
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: ops though, so they have hit him for some power here. Yeah,
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: I mean I think this game goes over. That's the
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: way I would play this game. It's not my play,
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: as you could are tell my play is going to
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: be a side, but yeah, I would. I would go
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: over in this game more than I would do anything else.
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: You're looking at a high price on Philly, at like
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: minus two twenty.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, that price seems a little insane.
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: I mean you, I mean, you know you're gonna have
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: to pay a price when you back Sanchez, but it
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: seems a little ridiculous, especially given that he's not that
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: good on the road, not good against Kansas City. The
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: public is on them eighty eight percent of the tickets
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: on Philly, eighty nine percent of the cash right now.
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: But I think there are just a heavy public side.
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: I would not want to play Philly here. The money
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: is coming in on the over, and that again, that
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: is what I like in this game.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: The total is at eight pretty reasonable total.
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: Uh, you can't really put the total that high when
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: Sanchez is pitching, so you know, I think there is
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: maybe some value there in the over, sixty seven percent
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on the over.
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: You're also getting a bad Kansas City bullpen and a
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: mediocre Philadelphia bullpen. So oh yeah, that's the way I
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: would look at that game. I mean, if you're gonna
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: try to play Kansas City, I wouldn't want to. But
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: if you're gonna try to play Kansas City, I guess
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: you should go first. I mean, you should go first
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: five innings, can't back their bullpen at all. But yeah,
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: over is I think the right way to play that.
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: Yankees Tampa Bay. This is gonna be my play, unfortunately,
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: but yeah, I mean I think this play makes a
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: ton of sense. We're taking the Yankees at even money,
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: Like you basically.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: Get the Yankees as an underdog.
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: Here, like with Schlittler on the mound, by the way,
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: like when are you gonna get the Yankees with Schlittler
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: as an underdog? This is like there's a lot of
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: value here. The situation is good. I think the starting
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: pitching advantages there as well. I mean, yeah, this is
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: my only play of the day. I think it's a
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: really strong play. Tampa Bay.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: I think they're overrated.
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: There are four games ahead of the Yankees right now,
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: even though the Yankees are the better team in my opinion.
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: Although you think the Yankees would be favored in this game,
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: was Schlittler on the mound. Even though they are on
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: the road, I'm just not buying this record from Tampa Bay. Like, yes,
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: I think they're gonna be a playoff team. The American
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: League sucks. I don't think Tampa Bay is gonna win
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: the division. I don't think they're better than the Yankees.
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: Yankees right now, we're like, we're at like the point
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: in the market where you're gonna get the most value
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: on the Yankees because they've been awful recently. They've lost
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: nine of their last ten games. They just lost to Minnesota. Yeah,
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: I mean, this is still the fucking Yankees, dude. I
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: don't want I mean, obviously I don't want to admit it,
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: but they're the best team in the American League there
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: and they're in a good situation. They're starting a road trip,
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: which I think is a good thing. When everything's going
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: wrong for you at home, one of the best things
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: you can do is just forget about that go on
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: the road. And I think the Yankees are gonna be
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: motivated here because they're behind Tampa Bay and the standing,
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: so this game might mean more to them because normally
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: I would say, well, this is gonna be a big
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: game for Tampa Bay, and yeah it is. I mean
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: it's against the Yankees. Yeah, they're gonna show up. But
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay is in a difficult spot, which is typically
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: a distraction spot. They're coming back from a road trip
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: where they did lose to Houston at the end of
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: the road trip. Still a road trip return spot, which
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: you know, I don't like that when a team has
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: been gone for a week, they were in the Central
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: time zone coming back home, I think it can lead
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: to distractions.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: You have to get back to home life.
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: Even though yes, playing the Yankees should you know, negate
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: that a little bit. But the Yankees are definitely gonna
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: show up motivated. The spot is definitely better for the
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: Yankees here, and we're gonna get a starting pitching advantage
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: and a bullpen advantage here.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are a good bullpen. They're number four.
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: They have the second best bullpen in the RA right now.
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: They're doing well. Tampa Bay is ranked eighth. But I
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: still don't trust this bullpen four point three to six
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: e RA. That's not that good. So I think they're
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: kind of a mediocre bullpen. Yankees offensively a falling off
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: a little bit their ninth, but there's still the better
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: offense here, you know, I know they're without Judge whatever,
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: this is still an offense that can put up numbers.
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay is twelfth, and as far as the rest,
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: this is the only thing that the Yankees don't really
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: have going for them. Their bullpen is pretty unrested right now.
• 14:18
  Speaker 5: These four guys out of the bullpen.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Yesterday.
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: They didn't use any of their better relievers though, so
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: their better relievers should be available here tonight or today.
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: No tonight, the only the only afternoon game is the
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: Philly Kansas City game. Tampa Bay only used two relievers,
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: but they did use.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Kim Probably yesterday they didn't really I don't know who
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: they're using as a closer right now.
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: I don't think it's him though, So both teams do
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: have some of their better relievers available, but I still
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: think that's gonna be an edge for the Yankees. And
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: we're back in Cam Schlittler. I mean again, like I said,
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: when are you gonna get Schlittler as basically an underdog.
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's ridiculous he's got a two point eighty
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: or a point nine to six. I mean, obviously his
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: numbers were so good that they were unsustainable, and I
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: know he hasn't been that good in his last two outings.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: But he's gonna bounce back, dude. I mean, come on.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: He's also good on the road.
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: He's better on the road one point h three Roadie
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: Ray with a one sixty five opponent batting average in
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: a bigger sample size, So yeah, he's been good on
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: the road. His last road start, which was at Feenway Park,
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: wasn't even actually bad. Even though he allowed four runs,
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: none of them were earned, so the Yankees fielding was
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: just a mess behind him. He had one actual bad
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: start last time against Detroit. I don't know what happened there.
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: They hit four home runs off him. To me, that
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: seems just really fluky because he still had five strikeouts
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: one walk, so he wasn't really I mean, he did
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: give up seven hits, so that he was too hittable
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: in that game. But I just think he bounced his back, dude,
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: you know, I mean, he's good enough that he should
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: bounce back. He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: high strikeout rate.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: We know all this. He's still the siding on front
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: runner in the American League.
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: Against Tampa Bay, they have forty four at bats against them.
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: He doesn't dominate them, but these are decent numbers. Two
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: seventy three batting average. Yeah, I know that's not great.
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: Seven h six ops is still lower than that seven
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: to fifty threshold fourteen to three strike out walk ratio,
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: so I get it. This is not the greatest matchup
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: for him. He's still an ace pitcher, though, and he's
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: going up against Griffin Jacks, who was scheduled initially to
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: pitch yesterday, so I handicapped him yesterday. But Tampa Bay
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: went with a different relief pitcher to start the game yesterday,
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: so I don't know Tampa Bay had somebody else that's
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: in their bullpen pitch like five innings yesterday. Jacks is
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: gonna pitch this game. He's been okay, a three point
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: four to five y one point two to seven win.
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: But I think you got to be kidding yourself if
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: you think that he is anywhere near on the level
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: of Schlitzler. Jacks is slightly worse at home three point
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: seven to one dr rail those opponent batting average is
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: lower at home, but he is a converted reliever, so
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: he hasn't been starting for that long.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: And yes he's been capable as a starter.
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: He's been fine, but none of these offenses that he's
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: faced are as good as the Yankees. The only really
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: good offense he faced in here was Washington and he
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: was okay in that start, but he didn't last that
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: long in that start, did give up a couple of
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: home runs. I don't know, man, I mean the Yankees
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: to me, I mean this is gonna be a different animal, Jax.
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: He does have a decent hit rate here. His walk
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: rate is okay. His strike got rate is fairly good,
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: pretty mediocre, which isn't bad, but you know, you need
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: to be better than mediocre to beat Cam Schlitler. His
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: numbers against the Yankees are not good, so he does
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: have the worst of the match up here twenty nine
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: at bats three ten average allowed, eight to ninety two ops,
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: eleven to three strike got walk ratio is pretty good,
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: but the rest of these numbers are not good. So
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: the Yankees have seen him before, they've been able to
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: hit him. Yeah, I think we get the situation. We
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: get the better start, the better bullpen, the better offense.
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: We're taking the Yankees. I saw this, dude. I expected
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: the Yankees to be a small favorite in this game.
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty shocked that they're not. I think they should be,
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: and I think, really it's just recency bias. Who would
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: have thought that you'd get the Yankees as a value play.
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: This is a really really rare scenario, man, where I
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: think that is the case. I think they're the better
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: team and the public doesn't even really seem to want them,
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: which is insane. Fifty ticket sixty nine percent of the
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: cash on the Yankees. Money seems to agree with me.
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: Money is hitting the over in this game over seven
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: and a half. I don't have a good feel for
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: the total here, but you know you're getting Schlitler off
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: his worst performance of the season.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Basically, you're getting the Yankees when they're right at the bottom.
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: But I think this is a good bounce back situation
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: for them, in a bad situation for Tampa Bay as well.
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I think we have pretty much every advantage
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: in that one. Yankees as an underdog. Give it to me. Unfortunately,
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: Houston and Washington. That's my only play, by the way,
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: So now everyone's just gonna leave. Washington just lost to
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh the last two games over the weekend. They're staying
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: at home, maybe a decent spot for them to bounce back.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: Houston is traveling in from home, so they are starting
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: a road trip.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: With a little bit of momentum.
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: They did just beat Tampa Bay, but maybe that sets
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: up a little bit of a letdown, possibly because beating
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay. I mean, they have the best record in
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: the American League, so that's pretty big beating them. Now
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Houston starts a road triple. Though usually a team is
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: going to be focused to start the road trip, Maybe
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: not when it's coming off a big al matchup and
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: you're going out to face a National League team. Though
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: Washington is not a very good home team. Though Washington
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: used four relief pitchers, their bullpen is not good.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Houston used three.
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: Washington is twenty sixth in bullpen Era over five.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: That is not good. Houston has been better.
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: They're up to seventeenth and bullpen so they're at least
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: a decent bullpen at this point. Both offenses have been
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: able to do some stuff. Washington is the better offense
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: at four Houston is fourteenth, so they have gotten a
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: little bit worse recently. This starting pitching matchup, though, this
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: is this is one of the worst starting pitching matchups
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: that you're gonna see. Mike Burrows is going for Houston.
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: He's not good five point five eighty RA one point
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: five to one whip, although he is better on the
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: road pretty significantly actually, four point two eight roady RA.
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: So I don't know if I necessarily want to fade
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: him here. And he was actually pretty good in his
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: last two starts. Unfortunately, the last one we tried to
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: fade him with Joe Ryan and the Twins had the
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: lead in the game and Joe Ryan blew it.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Uh So I'm not happy about that.
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: Burrows was bad enough that we should have won that
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: game with Joe Ryan on the mouth of the Burrows
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: was still okay in the game and picked up a win.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: He was good in the previous start against Toronto on
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: the road.
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: Burrows, I mean, his hit rate is too high, his
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: walk rate is a little too high.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: He gives up a lot of home runs. He's very
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: fly ball.
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: Heavy, which is a great His strikeout rate is really low,
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: so not great stuff here against Washington.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: They only have ten at bats against him.
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: They do have a three hundred average, but only six
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: sixty four ohps, no extra base hits, three strikeouts.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: One walk.
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: But still, I mean Washington should be able to get
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: some offense going against him. Miles Michels is pitching on
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: the other side. Yeah, he's not good. Five point four
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: to four year ral those one point two to nine
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: whip is not horrible. He's not good on the not
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: good at home, a five point eight to two homie,
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: al right, he is a bit worse at home.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: They just let him go.
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: In his last start against the Red Sox. He wasn't
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: very good, but they just let him eat up innings.
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: Make of that what you want. But he's still not
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: really pitching well. I mean, he's not really in good form.
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's not a good pitcher. He's giving up
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: a lot of hits. His walk rate is pretty low though,
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: so he doesn't give a lot of walks. His strikeout
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: rate is really low, though he doesn't fool anyone. He
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: allows a lot of home runs, especially given that he's
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: not really a fly ball pitcher.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: Against Houston numbers are not great.
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: In thirty eight at bats, four to five strikeout walk
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: ratio that's not good. Two sixty three average is pretty mediocre.
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: Eight to eleven ops is on the higher side, so
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: not great. I kind of wanted to see these matchup
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: numbers be a little bit worse. And you know, I
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: know Burrows is in the better of his home road
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: splits here. To me, I mean, this game still seems
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: like the obvious is still the way to play this,
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: which is the over.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: That's what I think.
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: I mean, you got two bullpens that are pretty beatable.
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: Washington's is in fact really bad. The money does indicate
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: on the over here fifty nine percent of the tickets
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: on the over, eighty nine percent of the cash on
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: the over.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: Total is ten.
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's it's a high total for a reason. Yeah,
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think that's the way to play this.
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: Houston is getting the money. I'm not so sure about that.
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: Sixty percent of the tickets on Washington, seventy two percent
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Houston. I think the feeling is
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: just that Houston may be a little bit undervalued right
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: now at below five hundred and Washington's record maybe is
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: a little bit misleading because they do have the better
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: record here. But like I said, Washington is not good
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: at home particularly, and maybe Houston will be focused starting
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: a road trip.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: You could make the argument at least the Burrows.
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: Could be better than Mekals like he's still young enough
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: that he has room for improvement. Micholis has already hit
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: a ceiling, like we know what he is, you know.
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: So I think that is probably the argument for Houston.
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: But I think the over is the right way to
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: play that game. All right, Oh, in the price on
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: that Houston is favored or No, they're not.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: They're not. I thought Houston might be favored in that game.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: They're not. They're an underdog. They're a small underdog in
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: that game.
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: All Right, it makes sense, I guess, because Washington is
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: still the team with the better record.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: But Meek, I mean, I don't know if that guy
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: should ever be favored.
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: All right, Mets and Atlanta. Atlanta lost the game yesterday.
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: This is a rap round series. This is gonna be
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: a four game series. It's a two to one Braves
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: lead in the series right now. We took the Mets yesterday.
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: They had Nolan McClain on the mouth. So that was
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: one of my winners yesterday. Five to three lead at
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: the end of five, that was the win that we had,
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: and then the Mets hung on for a ten to
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: nine win.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: They almost blew it.
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: So Mets bullpen, I don't know what's going on with them,
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: because they're they're a decent bullpen. They did use four
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: guys yesterday though, and they're not as good as Atlanta's
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: league leading bullpen, although Atlanta used four guys out of
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: their bullpen yesterday. Also kind of crazy to see the
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: league leading bullpen having Carlos Carrasco in it. Really ridiculous.
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: Atlanta's number one bullpen. Like I said, Mets are number two,
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: although I don't really think that the second best bullpen.
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: They're obviously the Braves are better, though Braves have fallen
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: off offensively. They're tied in fourteenth with Houston. Mets obviously
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: are much worse though they're twenty ninth out of thirty
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: and they've been jockeying for the last play spot with
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: the Padres. Freddie Peralta is making the start for the Mets.
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: This guy is on my bad side right now. Man
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: I've tried to back him multiple times recently, he's sucked.
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: I don't know what the deal is. Maybe just he's
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: not into it. Man pitching for the Mets, I don't know.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: He was pretty good in his time with the Brewers,
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: but with the Mets, Yeah, it seems like maybe he's
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: not totally motivated.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is.
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: Four point eight one ERA, one point four to two
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: whip that is not good. This is like one of
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: his worst seasons of his career right now. Six point
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: zero six Roady Ira really bad. He's not good on
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: the road. Wasn't good in his last start. Two of
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: his last three starts have been horrible. The start in
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: the middle was okay against the Cubs. The other two
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: starts really bad. And it's pretty damning that he sucked
• 26:03
  Speaker 5: against Toronto. That was a play that I lost on
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: the show.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: He had good numbers against Toronto.
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: Toronto's offense is bad and Peralta still was bad.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: That's not a good sign.
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: Numbers against the Braves are not bad, though, in one
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: hundred and one at bats to twenty eight average, seven
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: to seventeen ops, twenty two to nine strike out walk
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: ratio is not very good, but the rest of these
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: numbers are pretty good, big sample size. The question is
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: how motivated is he gonna be? You know, maybe he
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: gets motivated to face a team like the Braves. I
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: don't know, hopefully for the Mets sake, but yeah, Paralta
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: throughout his career, he's been good against these Atlanta hitters,
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: Ronaldo Lopez, especially for the Braves, and I normally I'd
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: prefer Peralta over Lopez. Lopez has been alright, but remember
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: most of his numbers have been coming out of the bullpen.
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: Three point three one ERA, one point three whip is
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: a little bit high there. He's a little bit better
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: at home three point one to nine homier. He actually
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: his opponent batting average is a lot better at home.
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: It is two hundred. He was good last time out
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: against Saint Louis. He had a good home start there.
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: I don't know if it's sustainable, you know, I mean,
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is a better hitting team on the road,
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: So that was a good start from him. And he's
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: going up against the Mets here, which should be a
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: pretty easy task because we know they're not a good offense.
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: They have forty at bats against him. One of their
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: best hitters, Lin d'Or has done nothing against Lopez in
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: his career except he does have one home run, but
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: he's three for twenty three. Lopez has held their team
• 27:38
  Speaker 5: to a one seventy five average five ninety eight ohps
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: eight to six strikeout walk ratio is not good, though,
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: and that's kind of the issue with Lopez. I don't
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: like his walk rate. His walk rate is clearly too high.
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is pretty low though, his strike go
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: out rates not great, but the walks are really his
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: main issue.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: Although again this should be.
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: An easier undertaking for him here and for Peralta. If
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: you look at his numbers over the season, Peralta's been
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: a little bit too hittable man. His walk rate is
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: kind of where you expect it to be for him.
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: He usually walks a few too many. His strikeout rate
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: is okay. So yeah, it's interesting because Paralta, you know,
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: his whip, his era don't look very good. When you
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: kind of dig into these numbers, nothing really stands out
• 28:20
  Speaker 5: as being horrible or being that much worse than he
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: usually is.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: I guess he's just more hittable than he usually is.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know it's interesting based on the matchup numbers.
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, I mean, I think this game
• 28:32
  Speaker 5: feels kind of like an under, but I don't know.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, the money's backing the.
• 28:38
  Speaker 5: Over and the total is nine, which seems a little
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: bit ridiculous to me. Fifty six percent of tickets eighty
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: one percent of the cash on the over. I think
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: this series might have been the one I was thinking
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: of where I was like, yeah, I think it was
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: Game one of this series is the one where the
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: total was nine, and I was like, how the hell
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: is the total that high. I don't remember what the
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: pitching matchup was, though, but the Gamelan eight I think
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: that was that game. But my worry is, you know,
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: the odds makers know what they're doing, Like they're not
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: just gonna put up a nine for no reason, Like
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: they do not think this is gonna be a low
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: scoring game, so do what that would you want? Although
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: I still think I kind of lean under in this
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: game based on the matchup here. I think these pitchers
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: do have decent matchup numbers at the very least.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: I mean I know they do. I just showed them
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: to you.
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: But yeah, fifty six percent of tickets eighty one percent
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the over.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, I don't really know what to make of it.
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: Atlanta is also getting the money at minus one thirty
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: or so eighty one percent of tickets ninety two percent
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Atlanta. The money is backing Atlanta
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: a little bit, even though they're also public. It looks
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: like public and professionals are kind of all hitting that side.
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: I worry that it looks too easy to play Atlanta
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: here at that price. Like, you know, again, the odds
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: makers are not just handing you free money.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Uh, you know. I just don't know if Lopez is
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: really that trustworthy. I don't know.
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: I mean, I guess maybe that's why the money's coming
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: in on the over Peralta hasn't been good recently. Lopez
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: is untrustworthy enough that they haven't had him in the
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: starting rotation, you know, which is what I said. He's
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: not one of their better starters. He used to be,
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: but not an he used to be a good starter,
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: not anymore.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: I don't know what else to say about that game.
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: But I still think under makes more sense to me
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: in that one. But I wouldn't want to do it,
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: And you know, the oddsmakers again are telling you something
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: by lining it with a pretty high total. Milwaukee at
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis. Saint Louis is returning home from a road trip,
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: a big road trip. But they went to Atlanta and
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: to the Cubs, and they actually won both series, So
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: Coming off of that.
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: Although I don't think they're gonna overlook Milwaukee, right, I mean,
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee's the leader in their own division, so this is
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: another big series, so they're not gonna be totally distracted here.
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: But even so, like I said, with Tampa Bay and
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: still return home spot, although I prefer fading Tampa Bay
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: because they're actually ahead of the Yankees in the Standard.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: In this case, Saint.
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: Louis is obviously behind Milwaukee, so Saint Louis may still
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: need to show up with some amount of effort here, right,
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: But still it's a bad spot, a distracted spot, potentially
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: off of all that, you know, all the road work
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: they've been doing. Let's say Milwaukee comes into this game
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: with a little bit of a better situation. They're already
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: in the middle of a road trip, they're coming in
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: from beating Arizona yesterday. A little bit of a weird
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: travel spot, I guess, from Arizona to Saint Louis. Though
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is only coming back from Chicago, so the
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: last leg of their journey is actually better than Milwaukee's.
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: But still I don't like the return home spot again
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: because stuff piles up.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: That you have to do at home. Milwaukee used a
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: bunch of relief pitchers.
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: Yesterday they used five relief pitchers, although they do have
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen here, Saint Louis only used two, but
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: I still give Milwaukee a bullpen advantage their tenth their
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: eer ray is one of the better eras they're pretty
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: good bullpen. Saint Loui is not as good. They're twenty first,
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: although their era is not that bad. I think they're
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: kind of mediocre bullpen wise. Milwaukee's eleventh in offense, Saint
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: Louis sixteenth, so maybe a little bit of an advantage
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: of the air for Milwaukee as well. Saint Louis, like I said,
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: does not hit well at home. Milwaukee's going with Shane Drohan,
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: who's still kind of a man of mystery, and we
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: still don't know what he looks like. Based on ESPN,
• 32:25
  Speaker 5: he's been pitching pretty well though. Three point one two ERA,
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: one point two to three whip is not too bad.
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: Little bit worse on the road, but pretty close three
• 32:33
  Speaker 5: point three to two road.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: Ray was good in his last.
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: Start against Cincinnati, a lot of strikeouts there, held them
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: to two runs of five to two thirds innings, seven strikeouts.
• 32:44
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty much effective the entire time he's been
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: a starter. He was coming out of the bullpen for
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: a while, I think, and now he's been a starter
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: for a bit. He's got a pretty low hit rate,
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: walk rate is decent, strike out rate is fairly high
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: as well. Pretty good numbers here against Saint louis not
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: a lot of track record here. They only have eight
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: at bats against some one hit, which is a double
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: from weather Holt one to one strike out, walker ratio
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: one twenty five average, four to seventy two oh ps.
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: So Drohan's been pretty good against them when he has
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: faced them, and they're not familiar with them, so I
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: think Drohan does set up the pitch pretty well here.
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: He's going up against Dustin May, who I thought was injured,
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: but I guess he's gonna make his start here. At
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: least he's on the schedule and he's listing on the
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: board here.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: May has definitely.
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: Not been good his last couple outings. He was looking good,
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: like he was good for like a stretch of over
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: a month. But he looks like he's completely fallen out
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: of for him again, he's got a four point eight
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: ERA and one point two seven whip. Isn't that bad though,
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: indicates that his ERA should probably be lower. But he
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: has been better at home as well, three point nine
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: to four home ERA, which makes sense because this is
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: a more pitcher friendly park. His last two starts are
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: both really bad at Kansas City and at Atlanta.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: He was awful in both those starts.
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: He allowed eleven runs in two and two thirds innings combined.
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: That is not good, and his you know, strikeout rate
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: went down a little bit.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Whatever. Last time he was at home he was good.
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: He dominated San Diego and had a complete game, one hitter.
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: Is he gonna return to that kind of form? I mean,
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: probably not. Also, the Brewers are a way better offense
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: than San Diego. May against the Brewers, let me see, Uh,
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: he's been good though they're one for twenty off him.
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: The only hit is a double from Garrett Mitchell. They
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: have nine strikeouts, no walks. That's an fifty average and
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: one ninety five ohps. So May he's better at home.
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: Maybe he does bounce back here because he does actually
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: match up well against Milwaukee. I believe he did face
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: them this year and he was good. Yeah, he went
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: seven innings. He have a one run, two hits, nine strikeouts,
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: no walks at Milwaukee. So he's not even as good
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: on the road. And he shredded them on the road
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: back on May twenty seventh. The month of May, I
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: think was pretty good for May. Or maybe it was
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: the month of June. I don't even remember the end
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: of May into June. I think he was good, but
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, I mean I don't really. I
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: don't trust May given what he looked like in his
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: last two starts. You know, I think I think he
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: might have gotten injured during his last start too, but
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: it looks like it's not serious because he is pitching here.
• 35:27
  Speaker 5: I don't like Saint Louis in the return home spot, really,
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: but I think this game could be an under I
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: don't know if I necessarily want to trust the bullpens
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: because Milwaukee's is a bit unrested. Here money looks like
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: it does agree on the under, sixty percent of tickets,
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: fifty three percent of the cash on the.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Over totals at eight. To me, it looks like both
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: starters match up pretty well here. Maybe first five.
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: Under makes the most sense here because Saint Louis's bats
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: might be a little bit cold upon the return home,
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: you know, Milwaukee also having to travel.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: I think that probably is the I see it.
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: I like Milwaukee's bullpen, and Saint Louis's bullpen is decent enough,
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: I think, but Milwaukee's has a bit unrested right now,
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: so I think maybe the better reproach is first five under.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is also favored, you know, not surprisingly I had
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: like minus one twenty or so. They are the better team,
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: uh seventy four percent of tickets, ninety two percent of
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: the cash on them. So the money looks like it
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: is backing Milwaukee. I mean, it is one of those
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: return home spots where you do I would say you
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: want to fade or avoid that team in the return
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: home spot almost always, so do it, then invote what
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: you want. But first five under I think makes the
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: most sense there. Arizona San Diego's on Fox Sports One.
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: For whatever reason, san Diego's coming off a big weekend
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: series against the Dodgers where they finally salvaged a game
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: winning yesterday. So San Diego has a lot of scheduling
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: dynamic things going on because they have lost eight games
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: in a row before that, And you know, I talk
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: about when a team ends a losing streak, usually that's
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: good because it gives them new momentum. However, they're returning
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: home from a road trip where they went to Chicago
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: then La, so you know, I don't really like the
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: return home spot. Plus could be a letdown off of
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: beating the Dodgers yesterday, having a big weekend series against
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: them where the last three games are all fairly competitive,
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: so it could be a bad spot anyway returning home
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: from all that. Of course, the last leg of their
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: journey isn't that bad because they're staying in southern California.
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: But yeah, it still looks like a bit of a
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: negative spot to me for San Diego, even though they
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: did end their losing streak. Arizona is not good on
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: the road though, so keep that in mind. Arizona is
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: starting a road trip, so I'm not really bad for them.
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: It's a short trip pretty much from Arizona to San Diego.
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: They're coming up a pretty big series though against Milwaukee.
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: But San Diego, I mean, these teams are tied in
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: the standing zo so that's the other thing. Neither of
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: these teams can really afford to overlook the other, you
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: know what I mean. These teams are jocking for position
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: right now now, trying to get into the wildcard picture
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: or whatever, so there is reason for both teams to
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: be motivated. Although the spot does set up better for Arizona.
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: San Diego normally has the better bullpen, but their bullpen
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: is not rested right now. They used Mason Miller in
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: the last two days. They used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: so even though their bullpen is good, they're pretty taxed
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: right now. Arizona is less tax They use three guys yesterday.
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: Arizona's ranked higher at seventh, though I still don't really
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: love their era san Diego's fourteenth, but they're definitely better
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: than the fourteenth best bullpen, so do it with that
• 38:37
  Speaker 5: info what you want. Both offenses have struggled, San Diego's
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: dead last and Arizona's twenty sixth, and this is a
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: pitcher friendly park. So does that mean this game is
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: gonna go under God? I don't know, man, Given this
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: pitching matchup, I mean, it doesn't look great for that.
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: Brandon Fott is pitching for the Diamondbacks. He is not
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: doing too well four ERA one point four to one whip.
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit worse on the road five point
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: six y five roady ra Although this might be a
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: better spot for him because of course San Diego it's
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: a pitcher friendly park. It's a week offense, so this
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: might be a little bit of a better matchup for him.
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: He did pitch fine ish last time out against San Francisco,
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: held him to one run in five and a third innings.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: That was at home. They're a week offense, so is
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: San Diego.
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: Fought has a hit rate right around one peranning, pretty mediocre.
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: Hasn't really pitched that much this year, man, I think
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: they've had him come out of the bullpen.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: That's the other thing.
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: If you're gonna look at this game, the Dbacks do
• 39:39
  Speaker 5: have Fought listed as a starter right now. But Fought
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: is how we say fart in Boston. By the way,
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: I would you know, if you're gonna look at this game.
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: I would not choose Fat must start here though, because
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: he might.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: Not start, like they might put an opener in front
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: of him, you know what I mean.
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: So if you're gonna find a way to play this game,
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: I would specify Bueller must start for Sandy Bueller because
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: it looks like he will. But on the Arizona side,
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: it's either gonna be Fat or they're gonna put an
• 40:06
  Speaker 5: opener in front of Fat and then he's gonna come in.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: I just don't know which it's gonna be. We will see.
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: But yeah, Fot does have a pretty low strike out rate.
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is not really that great. His numbers
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: against San Diego.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Are not bad.
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: In one hundred and twenty eight at bats, they've seen
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: a lot of him two fifty eight average, seven O
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: eight ops, thirty two to eight strikeout walk ratio, so
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: he's done well against San Diego for the most part.
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: So this is at least a decent matchup for him. Here.
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: Walker Bueller's pitcher for San Diego. He's starting to pitch
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: poorly again after he had a little bit of a
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: run where he was pitching well. But he's got a
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: four point six one ERA one point three to eight whip.
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: That's not very good. However, he does pitch well here
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: at home. It is a much more pitcher friendly park
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: than most, so he takes advantage of that three point
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: one to three homey ra. He is definitely better at home.
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: He was really bad his last time out, he got
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: bombed at Wrigley Field, but he was actually pitching well
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: for like the entire month of June. So the fact
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: that he's back at home, maybe that was a fluke.
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: That was that twenty three to three cub win. So yeah,
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: it did not go well for Bueller there. But overall,
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: I mean, his hit rate is a little bit high,
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is a little bit high, his strike
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: out rate is fine, you know.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. He hasn't been great, but
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: he's been much better at home. At least.
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: Numbers against Arizona are actually good in a huge sample
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: of ninety eight at bats. A lot of this was
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: probably back when Bueller was better. Remember though, he was
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: actually a good pitcher back for the Dodgers, and then
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: he had major injury issues, so keep that in mind.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Some of these stats are probably from then, but.
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: He has held him to a one ninety four average,
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: five point thirty nine ohps twenty six to five strike
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio. Given that this is a pitcher friendly park,
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: both pitchers have good matchup numbers here, Bueller is much
• 41:59
  Speaker 5: better that are at home.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: This game could be an under.
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: Dude, maybe you just go first five because you know,
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: usually I would say, don't you know that you want
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: to back San Diego's bullpen, But because they're so unrested here,
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: you know, maybe it makes sense to play this first
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: five under. The totals at eight and a half fifty
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: five percent of the tickets of sixty four percent of
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: the cash on the over though, uh so, I don't know,
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: but it is interesting the money is backing Arizona though
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: sixty four percent of tickets on San Diego, seventy nine
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Arizona. Heavy market read on Arizona.
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: The line is like right at a pick them minus
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: one ten price here on both sides pretty much. Now,
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: some of it is it's got to be the situation
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: that's causing a lot of that money to come in
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: on Arizona, because I talked about that. The situation's bad
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: for San Diego. I think the starting pitching matchup I
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: think favor San Diego though, although their bullpen just given
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: the rest, might be a bit of a disadvantage. I
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: think both bullpens might be a little untrustworthy. Hear this,
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: I still think I lean first five under in that
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: one might sound a little bit crazy, but I think
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: that might make.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: The most sense there.
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: Obviously, that's not a game I want to touch Toronto
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: at San Francisco.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's returning home from a road trip.
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: They went to Arizona and Colorado lost the series in Colorado. Now,
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: the returning home from that out of elevation and playing
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: an American League team, it's not doing that well. So
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: it doesn't look like a great spot for San Francisco here.
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: You know, I always talk about it. The return home
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: spot not a good spot. You can get distracted, you
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: have to get back to home life. San Francisco's offense is.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: Definitely not as good at home Toronto.
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: Maybe a better spot for Toronto because they're already on
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: the Pacific coast. They just got shut out two straight
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: games in Seattle. Now they're coming down from there, so
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: I think the spot is better for Toronto because they're
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: already in this time zone and they're not really having
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: to travel that far from Seattle to the Bay Area. Here,
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: it looks like they should have a starting pitching edge Toronto,
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: But if you dig into this a little bit, that's
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: not really so much the case. I don't like San
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: Francisco's bullpen. They use four guys yes today, I don't
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: know what's happened to their bullpen, but they're not doing
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: well Toronto used to. Toronto's been the better bullpen this year,
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: at least so far. They're eleventh. San Francisco is twenty fourth,
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: and their era is not very good. So even though
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: they might be a little bit better than where they're ranked,
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: they have not been very good. I think San Francisco's
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: offense is way overrated at thirteenth. I still don't think
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: they're that good, even though they put up some offense
• 44:37
  Speaker 5: over the weekend, but that's because they were in coursefield again.
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: So now that they're back in Oracle Park or whatever,
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: I see their offensive numbers going way down from that.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's a.
• 44:48
  Speaker 5: Change from being in one of the most pitcher one
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: of the most hit or friendly parks in baseball to
• 44:52
  Speaker 5: a pitcher friendly ballpark. Toronto has not been a good offense,
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: though they're twenty seventh, so you know, I mean, given
• 45:01
  Speaker 5: that neither offense is really that good, and looking at
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching, one of my other thoughts was this
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: could be an under. But then I started digging into
• 45:07
  Speaker 5: the matchup. Kevin Gussman is pitching, which looks like that's
• 45:11
  Speaker 5: good for the Blue Jays. He's got a four point
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: one to nine e ARRA, but his whip is one
• 45:15
  Speaker 5: point one to nine, which is pretty good, so his
• 45:18
  Speaker 5: ERA should probably be lower than it is. He's not
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: good on the road though, five point four Roadie Ray.
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: Although even so, I mean, this is the more pitcher
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: friendly park and not a good offense he's going up against.
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: Goussman bounced back. He had two bad starts, one of
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: them unfortunately. I think I had an under in the
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: one against Texas or something like that that didn't go well.
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: Pitch well last time, though, but it was at home
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: against the Mets. How much do we take away from that?
• 45:44
  Speaker 5: I don't know, Like, is he coming back into form?
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: Maybe he is, because he is a good pitcher. However,
• 45:51
  Speaker 5: his numbers againt San Francisco. You could have guessed based
• 45:53
  Speaker 5: on the way I was talking. These are not good numbers.
• 45:56
  Speaker 5: They only have five hitters who have faced him, although
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: Ariahs and Devers have both.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: Absolutely dominated him.
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: Sixty one total at bat's, three ninety three average, eleven
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: thirty four ohps.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: That's all of San Francisco's hitters.
• 46:10
  Speaker 5: Fifteen to two strikeout walk ratio is a good ratio,
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: but the rest of these numbers are really bad. Maybe
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: he could pitch around those two guys, but if you
• 46:18
  Speaker 5: want player props, Ariyah's and Devors both destroy Kevin Gaussman,
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: so keep that in mind. But it looks like it's
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: not a good matchup for him here. San Francisco is
• 46:29
  Speaker 5: going with Landon Roup Roop. I still got to look
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: up how to pronounce his name. He's been pretty mediocre,
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: even though I kind of like his stuff, like his
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: breaking stuff is pretty nasty. But four point five to
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: five VRA and one point three to seven whip is
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: not great. He's been a little bit better at home
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: four point three to eight homey Ram wasn't good in
• 46:49
  Speaker 5: his last start on the road at Arizona. He was
• 46:52
  Speaker 5: good last time at home against the A's and they're
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: a pretty good offense, so maybe that's a decent sign
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: that maybe he'll be able to pitch better here.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: He's a fairly low hit rate on the season.
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is actually high, so he has good
• 47:04
  Speaker 5: strikeout stuff, but his walk rate is way too high.
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: So that's his one problem is his walks are ridiculously high.
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: He's got to figure that out.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 47:13
  Speaker 5: If he got his control issues fixed, he'd be a
• 47:16
  Speaker 5: pretty good pitcher against Toronto. I think he does have
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: a matchup advantage here because they only have one guy
• 47:24
  Speaker 5: who's faced him, which is Urreus, who's one for three
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: off him with a strikeout. So I think route does
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: actually match up pretty well. I don't like the San
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: Francisco return home spot, though. The money is back in
• 47:37
  Speaker 5: San Francisco anyway, seventy two percent of the tickets on Toronto,
• 47:41
  Speaker 5: sixty one percent of the cash on San Francisco.
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: Toronto is a favorite. They're laying. The price they're laying
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: is all over the place.
• 47:48
  Speaker 5: I think this is just wrong that it says DraftKings
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: is at minus or DC A excuse me, is at
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: minus one thirty four. I don't think that's right because
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: this is like minus one ten, minus one fifteen everywhere else.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: So I don't. I think this board is just wrong.
• 48:02
  Speaker 5: I don't think that's what the price actually is at
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: DK Toronto's a small favorite here, so maybe basically the
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: professional money I think is saying, well, we think there's
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: a little bit of value on the Giants at home,
• 48:13
  Speaker 5: given what these matchup numbers look like. As an underdog,
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: I can understand that, but I don't like San Francisco's bullpen.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: I think if you want to take.
• 48:21
  Speaker 5: San Francisco, you should do it first five. But I
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: still don't want to do that because they're in a
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: return home spot. I don't want to back Kevin Goussman either.
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: The money is backing the over, which is kind of
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: interesting because the total is pretty low at seven and
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: a half, because again, on the surface, this looks like
• 48:37
  Speaker 5: it could be more of a pitching duel. But I
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: just showed you the matchup numbers don't look good for
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: Goussman seventy one percent of tickets ninety three percent of
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: the cash on the over.
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: So money is backing the over.
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: Maybe you could look towards an over here. I mean,
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: I don't know if either bullpen is necessarily totally trustworthy.
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: You could maybe get some runs coming in off of
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: both arders. I mean, seven and a half doesn't give
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: you a whole lot of leeway to try to get
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: an under to come home, so you know, but usually
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: when the oddsmakers put up seven and a half, you
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: do want to look towards it being a low scoring game, though.
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: But maybe the over does hit there. I don't know, man,
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: maybe San Francisco over their team total just because they're
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: an underdog.
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: You'll probably only need to score four runs.
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: Maybe if you do that, but I don't love that either,
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: because their offense is not really that good. It's not
• 49:28
  Speaker 5: good at home, and in a return home spot they
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: might be struggling to score runs. So I don't really
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: love that either. But they do have a good matchup,
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: at least against Gusman. Maybe I'm not a prop guy,
• 49:39
  Speaker 5: but I think if I was gonna do anything in
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: that game, I might just focus on like a Riaz
• 49:44
  Speaker 5: and or Devers going over their hits plus runs plus
• 49:47
  Speaker 5: RBIs all right. Colorado and Dodgers. Obviously this is a
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: big mismatch here. Dodgers are staying at home. They did
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: lose yesterday to San Diego. Colorado is gonna be starting
• 49:59
  Speaker 5: a road trip. They should be focused. I mean they're
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: starting a road trip going up against the Dodgers. Colorado's
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: actually played somewhat competitively against the Dodgers so far this season.
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: Colorado used four relief pitchers. Their bullpen is not good.
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: Dodgers used three. Talking about yesterday, Colorado twenty seven the bullpen.
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: They're one of the five bullpens with a five plus
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: ERA right now.
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: That is not good.
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: Dodgers are ranked sixth though, though again I don't think
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: they're quite that good, but they're obviously the better bullpen here.
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Dodgers number one in offense.
• 50:31
  Speaker 5: Colorado is number three, although I don't expect them to
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: be quite as good on the road here, so Dodgers
• 50:37
  Speaker 5: should have an offensive edge. Kyle Frieland is pitching for Colorado.
• 50:42
  Speaker 5: He's not good. A seven point twenty five ERA one
• 50:45
  Speaker 5: point six whip. He's actually been worse on the road.
• 50:48
  Speaker 5: I don't know how that's the case. Pitches veteran course
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: field at least for now, but an eight point three
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: road e RA eight point three to one that.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: Is not good.
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: He pitched well at home last time against Miami. Two
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: of his last three starts at home were good but
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: I would not put much stock into him. He's giving
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: up a really high hit rate on the season. His
• 51:09
  Speaker 5: walk rate is okay, that's pretty low. Strike out rate
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: is not too high either. He just gets really, really
• 51:15
  Speaker 5: hit like he's just way too hittable. Numbers against the Dodgers.
• 51:20
  Speaker 5: You know, those aren't gonna be good. Three ten batting average,
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: nine eighteen ops. I mean, you don't want to assume,
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: but three ten batting average, nine eighteen ops, two hundred
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: at bats, so they're very familiar with him. Forty eight
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: to ten strike out walk race is pretty good. He
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: just doesn't walk a lot of guys, but they've hit
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: him for a decent amount of power. Let's say he
• 51:39
  Speaker 5: faced them earlier this year that did not go well,
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: and it was here in La. He gave up eight
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: runs in four innings on nine hits, three home runs,
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: had four strikeouts and no walks. But again, he was
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: just really hittable. He got bombed in that game. So
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's gonna do well here. Eric Lauer
• 51:57
  Speaker 5: is pitching for the Dodgers, you know. I mean, he's
• 52:01
  Speaker 5: actually been better at least he hasn't had a good season,
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: but he was bad to start the season with Toronto,
• 52:06
  Speaker 5: even though he pitched well for Toronto last year four
• 52:09
  Speaker 5: point eight four ERA one point two to seven whip.
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think he's that good, but I
• 52:12
  Speaker 5: don't think he's as bad as he looked at the
• 52:15
  Speaker 5: beginning of this season either. And since the Dodgers picked
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: him up, he's been good. He's picked up three wins.
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: The Dodgers have won every start that he's made since
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: they've picked him up, which is six.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: It starts with this Colorado one.
• 52:28
  Speaker 5: I know ESPN kind of messes that up, but that
• 52:31
  Speaker 5: was his first start with them, So the Dodgers of
• 52:33
  Speaker 5: six and oh with him starting, he hasn't allowed more
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: than three or in runs in any of those starts.
• 52:39
  Speaker 5: That's not bad. But his strikeout rate is really low,
• 52:42
  Speaker 5: so do with that invo what you want. But with
• 52:44
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers, he has not allowed many hits, hasn't put
• 52:47
  Speaker 5: too many guys on base via the walk, really, but
• 52:49
  Speaker 5: his strike out rate's been really low, so he's not
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: been really fooling guys. He's only made two starts at home,
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: but he's been fine ish in both of those starts too.
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: His overall numbers, he does actually have a pretty low
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: hit rate.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: On the season.
• 53:02
  Speaker 5: Now, his walk rate is actually not too bad at
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: this point. His strike out rate is really low though,
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: so he doesn't fool anybody. But yeah, the Dodgers, you know,
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: I just think he's more motivated pitching for a competitive team.
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: I think his change in scenery has done him well.
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: He's going up against Colorado here, Colorado, you know, I
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: mean these numbers are kind of mediocre. I would say,
• 53:26
  Speaker 5: like he doesn't really have an advantage over them. They
• 53:27
  Speaker 5: don't really have an advantage over him. In forty two
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: at bats to eighty six average is kind of high,
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: but seven h seven ops.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: Isn't that high.
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: They haven't really hit him for that much power, and
• 53:37
  Speaker 5: they haven't walked a lot against him.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: Nine strikeouts, one walk.
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean this game, the Dodgers have the advantages here, man,
• 53:48
  Speaker 5: I mean their minus two twenty something though, I mean,
• 53:51
  Speaker 5: you can't really lay a price like that. I think
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: maybe the way to play this is just take the
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: Dodgers over their team total. I mean the total is
• 53:58
  Speaker 5: high at ten and a half. Light up Freeland plus
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: the Colorado bullpen, I know, like you're gonna need the
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: Dodgers to probably score seven runs here maybe to get
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: that thing over.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: It's they're capable of doing it.
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: Fifty six percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: cash on the over, so the money is playing the over.
• 54:17
  Speaker 5: I mean, I guess if you wanted to try to
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: split that up a little bit and go with the
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: full game over, I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but I think
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers will do the heavy lifting there and should
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: be able to blast Freeland. Plus Colorado's bullpen, Lower might
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: actually pitch okay here. Ninety two percent of the cash
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: and tickets on the Dodgers, I think you're paying too
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: much of a price for the Dodgers as usual.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: Like, I really don't think Lower should be that.
• 54:44
  Speaker 5: Heavy of a favorite against anybody, even if he does
• 54:47
  Speaker 5: have the matchup advantage here. But again, he's been pretty
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: good with the Dodgers at least, so you know, do
• 54:54
  Speaker 5: with that what you want. But he's a little bit
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: more unpredictable. I think, uh so Dodgers team total over
• 54:59
  Speaker 5: makes them most sense to me.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: All right, let me see where are we at. We're
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: almost in an hour.
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: I usually take a little bit of a break. I
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: guess I'll do that, and then I'll do WNBA and
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: World Cup. I'm not gonna have a play even though
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: I do have a fairly strong opinion in one of
• 55:16
  Speaker 5: the World Cup games. I've even been following by Twitter.
• 55:18
  Speaker 5: You know what it is, but I can't quite get
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: there with it, and there's still some question marks with it.
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: So I'm not gonna do it, but we'll talk about it.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back, yep.
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on OHN
• 55:39
  Speaker 5: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this.
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: good day at all, own four that.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: Have not had a good season.
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: slump continues.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going.
• 56:14
  Speaker 5: To burn my browins hack Man, I don't know what
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: is going on with the Bruins.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: Arch eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows, man,
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know what day is anymore. I don't even
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. Man, Back with you after
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could.
• 56:32
  Speaker 5: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 56:41
  Speaker 5: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: my eighteen years doing this.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 56:59
  Speaker 5: other than actually end it all all right, wnba. We
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: have three games here. I don't really love any of
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: these games. I don't really see great angles here. I
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: was wrong about both games yesterday, so it basically about everything,
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: so good thing you know. I was not involved yesterday.
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: Golden State is playing at Washington. Washington just beat Atlanta,
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: so they're coming off a big win. Could be a letdown. However,
• 57:31
  Speaker 5: that was their first game coming out of the break,
• 57:32
  Speaker 5: and I don't.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: Really think they're going to overlook Golden State.
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: I mean, Golden State's a good team, so teams are
• 57:39
  Speaker 5: usually gonna get up to play them. Golden State's not
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: quite as good on the road. Although they're a good team,
• 57:44
  Speaker 5: and they just beat Atlanta on the road. That was
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: their first game out of the break. They've beaten Atlanta
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: three times in the last four games.
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: They could be in a letdown spot. They don't have
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: anything big upcoming though. I mean, it's Toronto. I don't
• 57:56
  Speaker 5: think that's that big of a deal. But this is
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: a let down spot I think for Golden Set. I
• 58:01
  Speaker 5: think it might be a bigger let down for them.
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: They're not really that good on the road. At four
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: and four Washington is actually four and four at home Washington.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: I think it's at.
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: Least kind of a mediocre team and can be competitive.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: I'll lean to Washington here. The money doesn't agree with me.
• 58:17
  Speaker 5: Golden State's laying about six here, seventy percent of the tickets,
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: ninety percent of the cash on Golden State. They're the
• 58:22
  Speaker 5: better team, but I think I would have a slightly
• 58:24
  Speaker 5: in towards taking the points. I obviously don't have a
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: strong opinion though. The second game is the worst team
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: against the best team, Connecticut against Minnesota, but we do
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: have to look at the injury report here from Minnesota Connecticut.
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: We basically just know they're not a great team. They're
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: gonna get up for a game against Minnesota most likely, though,
• 58:45
  Speaker 5: you know there's it's a single game road trip though,
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: which is a little bit weird, and then they're gonna
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: come home and play Minnesota again. They're coming off a
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: big performance against Dallas, though, but they've had a few
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: days off since then. That was on Thursday. That was
• 58:59
  Speaker 5: a big effort from Connecticut though against a decent Dallas team,
• 59:03
  Speaker 5: So you could definitely question how much do they have
• 59:05
  Speaker 5: left in the tank. And they have to travel to
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: Minnesota for this one game, but they should get up
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: for it at least because Minnesota again is the best
• 59:12
  Speaker 5: team in the league, even without the Minnesota as like
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: the best player in the league in Collier and she
• 59:18
  Speaker 5: hasn't even played yet this season, and they still are
• 59:21
  Speaker 5: the best team, which is ridiculous. Minnesota is returning home
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: from a road trip kind of now, I'm gonna caveat
• 59:29
  Speaker 5: that because two of those games were before the break
• 59:32
  Speaker 5: Washington and at Dallas, So my assumption would be that
• 59:35
  Speaker 5: after they played Dallas they did go home. Then they
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: had a single game trip to New York. So that's
• 59:40
  Speaker 5: what I think happened there. So just keep that in mind.
• 59:43
  Speaker 5: They're not really returning home from a long road trip.
• 59:45
  Speaker 5: They just had a single game over in New York,
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: and they did not do well in that game.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: They lost by double digits.
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: New York's good all the Minnesota is the better team,
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: and I'm kind of surprised Minnesota wasn't that good in
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: them because New York was coming off of winning the
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: Commissioner's Cup and the Commissioner's Club. When you win it,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: you get like money, like your players get a bunch
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: of money. So I don't know, kind of surprised it wasn't,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: you know, somewhat of a letdown for New York, although
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 5: it was a game where both teams I expected to
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: kind of show up. Now Minnesota is coming off of that,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: they're playing this lowly Connecticut team.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Things that we have to be aware of.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: Though Collier is still not back for Minnesota. I don't
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: know when she is coming back. But the other thing
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 5: that you might have to made more attention to is
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 5: currently their best player is a rookie, Olivia Miles, who
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: they got from TCU. I believe she's been lighting it
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: up this year. This is why Minnesota is so good
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: even without Collier, is that Miles has stepped in.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: She's gonna be Rookie of the Year easily. Yeah.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 5: Like she's just dominating and it's like she's already been
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: in the league for years. It's kind of ridiculous. But
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 5: she has a calf issue. I don't know if she's
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 5: playing or not, and I don't know, honestly, I don't
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: have any frame of reference because these teams haven't played
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 5: yet this year, so I don't know what the line
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 5: would be with Minnesota with her in versus with her out.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 5: What I can say is that Minnesota open a fifteen
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 5: point favorite here and they're now down to thirteen thirteen
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: and a half, So maybe that means that, you know,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: I think maybe the oddsmakers is just kind of it's
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 5: like they don't know is Miles gonna play or not,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 5: because I think if she doesn't play, I think this
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 5: line might drop further to like eleven and a half
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 5: maybe or something like that. So I think right now
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 5: this is just because it's an unknown, so I don't
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 5: know what.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do anything with this game. I
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: don't know what to do with this game. Minnesota is
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: laying thirteen.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 5: I think if Miles does play, the line will creep
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 5: back up towards fifteen. You're also if you want to
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 5: lay it with Minnesota, you're doing that with a pretty
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 5: low total.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: Here at minus at one sixty five and a half.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 5: The total in that previous game I talked about is
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 5: one fifty six and a half.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: Though, that is.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 5: A really low total. But yeah, this game, I don't
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 5: know what to do. Obviously, this game, I have no
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 5: idea what to do with it. Sixty percent of tickets
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 5: on Connecticut, fifty five percent of the cash on Minnesota,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 5: the money's back in Minnesota.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 5: I just don't have an angle on this game really
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 5: at all. And then Seattle is at LA. I think
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 5: this is actually maybe the best of the three games
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 5: as far as a side, but I still don't love it.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 5: Seattle is coming off losing to Portland and now they're
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 5: going on the road, So Seattle's not exactly in a
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: bad spot here.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: They already did lose at home to LA, so there
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: is a.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 5: Little bit of a maybe road revenge angle here because
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: that was the one time they played LA this year
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: and they were actually gonna return home spot when that
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 5: happened to LA is definitely the better team, though. Seattle's
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 5: a bad team this year. But you know, LA might
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 5: overlook them a little bit. You know, Seattle is trying
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 5: to win games, at least coming off a loss at
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 5: home two days ago, though I believe LA has more
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 5: rest here. LA is coming off a blowout loss to
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 5: the Caitlin clarkless Indiana team.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: I believe.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 5: I believe that was the first first game that Caitlin
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: Clark was out, and I told you I thought Indiana
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 5: would step up their game.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: This LA defense is not very good.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 5: It's more interesting though, because LA hasn't played since before
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 5: the break. I think the only team left that hasn't
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 5: played yet since the Commissioner's Cup breaks. They have not
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 5: played since June twenty seventh. Now that might be a
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 5: good thing for them, though, because they went into that
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 5: break on a horrible note. They gave up one hundred
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 5: and twenty five points at Toronto and one hundred and
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 5: eleven at Indiana. So even though this is a return
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: home spot, which I don't like, you know, they've already
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 5: been back at home for a while, so whatever they
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: had to do back at home, they most likely have
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 5: gotten it done. And because they went into that break
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 5: on such a horrible note, you gotta think LA is
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 5: probably gonna show up here. Although they do play Indiana
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 5: next in two days. Both these games are on USA Network.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 5: That's gonna be a revenge game, a quick revenge spot
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 5: against Indiana though, so they may be looking ahead to
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: that slightly.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's not strong enough for me to do
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 5: anything with this game, but I'm going to lean to
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: LA because I think that break came at the right
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 5: time for them. They just went into the break on
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 5: such a bad note. They're the better team here, and
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: you're only having to lay three and a half, which
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 5: I assume means that Plumb is still out.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: That's somebody keep in mind, though.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 5: She's definitely not back if it's only three and a half, right, Yeah,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 5: she's out still for it looks like another couple of weeks.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 5: She's like LA's best player, so she's not playing. But still,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 5: I think the break should help LA. You know, after
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 5: such horrible performances going into it, you gotta think they'll
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: just show up against anybody. Uh, They're the better team here,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 5: so if they do show up, they should get the win,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: laying three and a half, which seems pretty reasonable. Sixty
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 5: nine percent of tickets ninety five percent of the cash
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 5: on LA. Uh So that's that game, all right. And no,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 5: I don't do anything with NBA Summer League. By the way,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 5: it's totally unpredictable. I know ESPN has said some of
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 5: the games on and whatever, though right now Wimbledon is on.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I got nothing and all that crap. It
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 5: would be way too much to focus on.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 5: We have two pretty competitive looking matchups in the World
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: Cup here, both games on Fox.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: Fox won in Telemundo.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 5: The first game is in Arlington, Texas, between Portugal and Spain. Portugal,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 5: I believe, is coming in from where were they at
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 5: I don't even remember Toronto, So Portugal is coming in
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 5: from Toronto. That kind of an interesting weird travel spot there.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 5: Spain last played in California, so both teams are traveling
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 5: across time zones here, not really an advantage to.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: One team or the other.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 5: Portugal really has not impressed me much in this World
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 5: Cup though, like the results are. They had a draw
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 5: with Dr Congo, they beat who's Bekistan, but who cares?
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: They're awful.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 5: They had a draw with Colombia, though Colombia is at
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 5: least pretty competitive, and then Portugal did manage to beat
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 5: Croatia in the in the first round of the first
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: round of the knockout bracket here, but they got really lucky, dude.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 5: Portugal had a like they were down one nothing and
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: then they got a penalty kick from Ronaldo. He scored
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: on that, and then they scored in stoppage time to win,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: and yeah, like, if you look at what happened in
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 5: this game, Portugal did outplay Croatia a little bit, but
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 5: they really were on the verge of losing that game
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 5: and debatably should have. So I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 5: Portugal hasn't impressed me much. You guys know that Spain
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: is my pick to win this game in my bracket,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 5: and I actually have them getting all the way to
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 5: the final. Now, Spain, they beat Austria in their last game.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 5: That was not a difficult matchup, so yeah, Portugal faced
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 5: some more difficult opponent in Croatia. Spain just did what
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 5: they needed to do, though, I mean, you can't really
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 5: knock them for that. They pretty much easily beat Austria
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: and deserve to do so, so there's not really much to.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: See there now.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 5: Spain, I think they've been maybe, dude, I don't know, man,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 5: I don't know if i'd say the more impressive here.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, obviously a draw with cape Verde wasn't impressive,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: but that was the first game. I think Spain just
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 5: took them completely lightly. But if you remember my handicapped
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 5: for the next game where Spain blew out Saudi Arabia,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: I gave out Spain over their team total in that one.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: That was a winner.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 5: Spain was way better in that cape Verde game than
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 5: it looked like on the scoreboard. They should have won
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 5: that game, like it was ridiculous. They didn't score anything.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: So Spain did put up a lot of offense.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: Then Spain had a match against Uruguay where Spain.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: Only won the game one to nothing.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 5: I mean, look at what happened in that game though,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 5: I mean, Spain was definitely the better team in the game.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 5: Both teams didn't really put up much offense though, but
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 5: Spain did pretty much have the upper hand in that one,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 5: and Uruguay, although they didn't make the knockouts, they're not
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 5: that bad, So I don't know what to think.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think Spain is the better team here.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: The oddsmakers are telling you they are because they're lining
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 5: Spain at minus one ten.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: On the three away line.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 5: I don't have a strong opinion on this game at all,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 5: but I've picked Spain to win it.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: I think Spain is kind of an overlooked team here, dude.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 5: Like I showed you what the people were picking whatever
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 5: when I did my bracket, and Spain had the third
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 5: best odds to win this entire thing, and I felt
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 5: that they were just being pretty much overlooked, although not
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 5: as overlooked as England.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Spain is good.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 5: And you know, I think Portugal gets a lot of
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 5: hype because they have Renald and whatever. But as I've
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: been saying throughout this thing, something feels off about Portugal
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 5: to me.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: I would lean towards Spain here slightly.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 5: Probably I would just lay the minus one ten on
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 5: the three away take them to win in regulation.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: I think that might be the best way to.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 5: Do it, like as far as the odds, because if
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 5: you want to play them to advance, you're probably looking
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 5: at like minus one to eighty so this probably makes
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: more sense to do it this way. Then the other
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 5: game is the US and Belgium. That's the night game
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 5: in Seattle. We know, there's a lot of stuff going
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 5: on here, a lot of question marks because the US,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 5: you know, basically, like the Trump administration basically said, oh, Balagun,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 5: I don't know he pronounced the guy's name, flow the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 5: best player for the US. He got a red card
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 5: in his last game, and by rule, he's supposed to
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 5: be suspended for this game. But the US government was
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 5: basically like, nah, he's gonna play anyway. And now Belgium
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 5: is appealing to FIFA.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: To overturn that decision. So we have no idea if
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: he's playing or not.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 5: And I like Belgium in this game, and you know,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 5: and there are a lot of reasons for it. I mean,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 5: one of the main reasons, you know, what I've been
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 5: saying throughout the World Cup is that the US is
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 5: an over valued commodity in the World Cup, dude, because
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 5: all the like, everybody's gonna be betting on the US.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 5: And I showed you with the knockout bracket that I did.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 5: The US was the third highest pick team to win
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: the Championship, even though they were like thirty to one
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 5: to win it, like they were like legitimately like the
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 5: tenth best odds to win it out of all the
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 5: team in the knockout. So they were clearly being way overpicked,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 5: even though they did get an easy first round matchup
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 5: against Bosnia. But I've been saying, like, you're gonna get
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 5: no value on the US, like it look oh, it
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 5: looks awesome. Let's take the US on the three way
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 5: line at plus one fifty, right, and I think Belgium
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 5: is about plus one seventy on the three way here.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: But I think it's a little bit ridiculous.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 5: The US is getting a little bit skewed on the
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 5: line because the games are being played in the US,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 5: and because all these bookmakers know, because they're all in
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 5: the US, they know that the public is just slamming
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 5: the US. They're the most publicly beat teams. So these
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 5: odds don't really tell you what's going on here. Belgium
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 5: is actually the better team. And you know, when you
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 5: saw me fall out my bracket, I picked Belgium to
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 5: win this match against the US, And I do still
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 5: agree with that. I lean that way, but I would
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 5: prefer Belgium. If Bolligan plays, I want him to play
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 5: for the US because I think that's actually better for
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 5: Belgium because I think you'll get slightly better odds on
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 5: them for that reason, and I think the US might
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 5: not play as intensely, right, Like, if Boaligan doesn't play,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 5: it's gonna be like that injured player theory thing, where
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 5: the US is gonna be more motivated, like, yeah.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: We got fucked.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 5: But I think if he does play, Belgium is gonna
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 5: be like, that's bullshit, we got fucked, and they're gonna
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 5: be more motive. It's almost like the injured player theory
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 5: and reverse injured player theory.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 5: So it's counterintuitive, but hopefully if you follow me, that
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 5: kind of makes sense right with the way that I
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 5: handicap these things. You know, other things that we have
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 5: going on. Belgium is staying in Seattle. Their last game
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 5: they played in Seattle, so they're literally staying in the
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 5: same stadium. The US has played in the stadium during
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 5: the World Cup already, but their last game was in Inglewood, California,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 5: or actually maybe it was in Santa Clara. I forget
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 5: they're in California. Maybe it was in northern California though,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 5: so it's not really that bad of a travel situation
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 5: for the US. But Belgium does have a slight advantage
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 5: there because they're staying in the same stadium.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: Now the US, obviously, one of my issues with the.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 5: US is they haven't played anybody basically in this World Cup.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 5: They beat Paraguay, who I don't care if Paraguay beat
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 5: Germany and if they look better than we thought they
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 5: would in their next game. They're not a good team, dude.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 5: I'm sorry, but they're not. And you know they had
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 5: They had an own goal right away in that game
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 5: that helped the US. The US then beat Australia. I mean,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 5: come on, Australia is no good. We just saw them
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 5: lose to Egypt, who was also not good.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: And then the US. I gave you guys a play
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: on Turkey.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 5: But of course the US wasn't motivated in that match,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 5: so that match it didn't matter to the US because
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 5: they had already won the group.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: And I think Turkey was playing for pride, you know.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 5: What I mean, not not June the month, not pride month.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 5: But Turkey was at least trying to redeem themselves for
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 5: having a bad World Cup, and they did by beating
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 5: the hosts, so I was right about them being more
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 5: motivated at least, even if the US did kind of
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: outplay them, but Turkey was the more motivated team. Then
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 5: the US got a really really good matchup against Bosnia
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 5: in the first round of the knockout, like that was
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: one of the easiest opponents they could have had in
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 5: my opinion. And this game was also not what it
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 5: looked like. They won two to nothing, and I know
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 5: Balagan got red carded, so the US was playing down
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 5: a man for you know, like close, not really half
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 5: the game but for the last thirty minutes of it
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 5: or whatever. But if you look at the expected goals
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 5: in this game, the US won two to nothing, but
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 5: that was not what really happened here. The US got
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 5: outpossessed by Bosnia and they only had two shots on goals.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 5: Bosnia had more shots on goal and more possession. That
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 5: to me is a big time red flag because Bosnia
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 5: is not a good team US did. They were expected
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 5: to win that game point eight nine to point two five.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 5: So the US did not do well offensively in that
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 5: game at all. They were really not creating any offense
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 5: against a bad team like Bosnia. Again, that's a red flag.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 5: This game was really kind of a toss up statistically. Meanwhile, Belgium,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 5: it's interesting Belgium had to go to extra time, so
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 5: they've had some time to rest since then. But I
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 5: do worry a little bit because they did have to play,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 5: they did have to play extra time, and they had
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 5: to put in a huge effort because if you didn't
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 5: see this game, they were losing two to nothing to Senegal,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 5: and then Belgium scored twice in the final five minutes
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 5: of regulation basically to tie the game, and then one
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 5: on a penalty kick in stoppage time in extra time,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 5: if that makes sense. So it was just an insane result.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 5: Although the one good thing is that Belgium showed a
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 5: lot of resolve because a lot of teams down two
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 5: to nothing will not be able to come back like that,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 5: and Belgium was able to do that. Lukaku scored. He's
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 5: old now, but he's a fun player to watch.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 5: If you look at the stats in this game, it's
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 5: a little bit bad for Belgium. Senegal was expected to
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 5: win that game three point five eight to one point
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 5: seven four, even though Belgium actually won the possession by
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 5: a little bit and they had the same amount of
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 5: our shots on goal, the Senegal had more big chances,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 5: so they had some chances like that were likely to
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 5: result in goals. Basically, I don't know exactly how ESPN
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 5: does this, but that is a really high amount of
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 5: expected goal. So yeah, that doesn't look great for Belgium.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 5: But what I will say is that Belgium has been
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 5: more battle tested in this tournament just because of that game.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 5: Belgium didn't play anybody else that good. They beat or
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 5: they drew with Egypt, drew with the Iran, which is
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 5: really a red flag, and then they beat New Zealand
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 5: like who cares. So Belgium was in a really easy group.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 5: But they did kind of prove themselves by making that
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: huge comeback and beating Senegal. And the US has not
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 5: played any team as good as Senegal or as good
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 5: as Belgium, who I think is better than Senegal. So
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 5: the US has faced the weak slate of games just because,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 5: like the US, the strongest opponent they played so far
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 5: as Turkey, Like that's how weak their schedules. Then Belgium
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 5: did have a really weak one until they played Senegal,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 5: but that did battle test them.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: So I do like that. So I like Belgium here.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 5: When I looked on Action Network, though, Action Network surprisingly
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 5: had the US actually getting more of the cash than
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 5: the ticket percentage. I don't know how much weight to
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 5: put into Action Network's numbers though, but Action Network had
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 5: Spain being more of like a professional side with a.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: Little bit of a cash edge there.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 5: And for some reason they had the US getting some
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 5: of the money there, but that was on the three
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 5: way line, like the plus one fifty other You gotta
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 5: think that even at that, like the public is going
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 5: to be hammering the US at plus one fifty, you
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 5: know what I mean. So I don't think I would obviously,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 5: I would not do that. I would want to find
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 5: a way to play Belgium here. And I think the
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 5: way to play Belgium here is you know, I mean,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 5: I don't know, like how do you play Belgium. I
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 5: think draw no bet is probably the best way to
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 5: play them. Let me see what the odds are on that,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 5: because you know, you got to get a little creative
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 5: when you're trying to play this or actually, no, you
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 5: could just play Belgium to advance, right, yeah, let me see,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 5: let me see to advance Belgium is plus one oh five. Yeah,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 5: I think that's what I would do. I would play
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 5: Belgium to advance at plus one oh five.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: I think that that's probably the best way to play this.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, to advance at plus one oh five, although there
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 5: are some other options here. I mean, you get the
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 5: double chance, but that's a really high price if you
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 5: want to play Belgium winner draw its minus one seventy.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: I know I did. I did give out. I have
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: an action network up right now. I did give out.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 5: I don't really want to show that because it is
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 5: a paid thing, but yeah, I mean you could lay
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 5: the minus one seventy on Belgium to winter draw in
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 5: the first ninety minutes. I think they will accomplish that.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 5: But you're laying a bit of a I know I
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 5: laid a price that was similar to that with Switzerland
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 5: early on in the group stage, and that was a winner.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: I usually don't like to lay a number like that
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 5: when there's a better option, which I think there probably
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 5: are here.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: I think the other better option here, like.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 5: I said, is probably the draw no bet, which, let
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 5: me see, we must be able to play that, right, Like, yeah,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 5: there should be other options here, right, let me see, Yeah,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 5: why don't I see that? You could also play a
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 5: money line including extra time. You can play Belgium at
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 5: plus one thirty or you know, you could play Belgium
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: in the first ninety minutes at what's the number on that?
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 5: It's plus one eighty five, so you know, I mean,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 5: I don't know, but yeah, I think Belgium to advance.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 5: Sob is in here, yes, Holland is yeah, pretty much
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 5: my favorite player. Yeah, and I gave out Norway as
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 5: a play yesterday.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: You agree? And they all right? You agreed with me
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: on Norway too. There you go. Now we're in agreement, Saba.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 5: I got a couple a couple of my leans that
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 5: were against you were correct, like that Mexico one the
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 5: other day.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: I apologize.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: I should have put that one on my card with
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 5: Mexico though they weren't as dominant as the final score looked.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 5: But yes, we're we're in sync right now though our
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 5: our periods have lined up again.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 5: The only thing I wanted to see is where's the draw?
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 5: No bet, you must be able.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: To play that, right, I don't. I don't know what's
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: going on.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think we want to look at you more
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 5: bets is where, dude, I don't know. DK has like
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 5: a lot of different things going on now. So the
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 5: drawing no bet is a ninety minute bet, but I
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 5: just I'm just wondering what the price is on that
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 5: before I get out of here, because this is a
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 5: shorter show today and I went earlier. So drawing no
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 5: bet Belgium is actually plus one oh five. So I
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 5: would do one of those two things. I would do
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 5: Belgium draw no bet in the first ninety minutes. So
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 5: what that means is that your BET's gonna win if
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 5: Belgium is winning at the end of ninety minutes, but
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 5: it will push if they're tied, or you could do
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 5: what I think is a little bit better. What SOB
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 5: and I are suggesting is to play Belgium just to advance,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 5: which means they have to win the game in some fashion. Yes, correct,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 5: well that and yeah, my Norway against the Ivory Coast
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 5: which was a little bit close as well. But Norway's
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 5: a good team, dude, you know again, a bit of
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 5: a bit of a dark horse, even though that's the
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 5: name of their documentary and maybe that's overplayed, but minus
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 5: one oh five, all right, I saw it. Plus it's
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 5: plus one oh five right now at DK. But yeah,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 5: I mean it's not that much of a difference though.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I think that's what I would do, is
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 5: play Belgium to advance. But I don't like this mystery
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 5: surrounding flow though for the US, you know what I mean,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 5: Like I want him to play, Like I think if
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 5: he plays, your gonna get a little bit extra value
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 5: on Belgium, like I said, And I think Belgium would
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 5: be a little bit extra motivated and it'll be like
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 5: the reverse injured player spot kind of thing for the US,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean. With him not you know,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 5: with him not being out basically, but if he is out,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 5: I think the US is gonna step up their game
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 5: and be more motivated, you know what I mean. That's
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 5: kind of the issue. But it's a knockout game, so
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 5: it's an elimination game, so both teams should be motivated anyway.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 5: But anyway, those are my thoughts on it. Yeah, I
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 5: think that's gonna do it for the show here. I
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 5: only give up one play today and be really selective
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 5: and I think it's a it's a play where we're
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 5: playing one of the better teams in baseball with one
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 5: of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound, and
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 5: we're gettinghim at plus one hundred. I know, I hate
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 5: this team, but I want to make money.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: Man, My only.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 5: Play of the day is the Yankees at even money.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 5: I think we're getting a good situational set up for it.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 5: You know, I think we've reached like their market value. Like,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 5: you know, we've reached like the bottom of the market
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 5: the Yankees.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 5: I think this is like the time where we're gonna
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 5: get the most value on this team. It's crazy that
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 5: you're getting the Yankees with Schlitler.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: On the mouth at plus one hundred.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 5: It's insane. Like they should be favored in this match matchup,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 5: match it's not soccer. In this matchup, they should be favored.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 5: So that's my only play is the Yankees money line
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 5: full game.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 5: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it Towe on Instagram, Like,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 5: subscribe to the channel here hopefully we start going on
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 5: another run here.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: Get up to five hundred subscribers. Man, it's close.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 5: Listen on Audio, Apple, Spotify, that all helps me out
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 5: as well.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 5: Covered in Uke is my yuke channel on YouTube and
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 5: I gotta get my voice back Patreon, dot com, slash
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 5: learned toad but for extra yuke stuff, I gotta get
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 5: my voice back. Loser cast will return tomorrow night, I'm
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 5: pretty sure, so pay attention for that. New York Giants
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 5: g Spot podcast should be back at some point. And
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 5: I recorded an episode of Here the Thing, which is with.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: What's is his name? Snoop? I think is his name?
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 5: One of the dudes from the Pick is in podcast
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 5: that I was on a couple of weeks ago. It's
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 5: a solo show that he does. It's more of just
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 5: a conversation we recorded last night. I believe he said
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 5: that show is gonna drop tomorrow, so you can check
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 5: that out as well. That's gonna do it. I went
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 5: a role in today. I woke up early, couldn't go
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 5: back to sleep, so that's what I did today. Man,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 5: even though it's a shorter board today, it was easier
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 5: to handicap today.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. Peace, but don't you go quiet,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something to somebody for show. Put
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: the glass down. Baby, look at me.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: No hold on, hold on nothing, no hold on, hold up.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: Let me pull you that bit fr but you don't.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Get the crown.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now