Latest / Balance of Power / Trump Tries Texas Rescue

Transcript

Trump Tries Texas Rescue · Balance of Power

0:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts.
0:05
Speaker 2: Radio.
0:06
Speaker 3: News.
0:09
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
0:12
Speaker 4: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
0:15
Speaker 4: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
0:19
Speaker 4: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
0:22
Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
0:25
Speaker 5: This Wednesday is going to bring President Trump to San Antonio, Texas,
0:29
Speaker 5: his second trip to Texas in the last week as
0:31
Speaker 5: he tries to shore up support in particular for Republican
0:34
Speaker 5: Senate nominee Attorney General Ken Paxton, who right now is
0:37
Speaker 5: lagging behind James Tallarico in a number of public polls.
0:40
Speaker 5: The question, of course, and Joe posed it, is whether
0:42
Speaker 5: or not Trump's presence in Texas does more to hurt
0:46
Speaker 5: or help.
0:46
Speaker 1: Ken Paxton.
0:47
Speaker 5: Whether that's the case in Texas or, frankly, anywhere that
0:50
Speaker 5: the president has traveled in recent days, including Ohio, Nebraska, Alabama,
0:54
Speaker 5: just to name a few places. Of course, if you
0:57
Speaker 5: ask President Trump, as he spoke yesterday, he thinks that
1:01
Speaker 5: the rallies actually are having a positive effect.
1:04
Speaker 6: Listen.
1:05
Speaker 7: The rallies I'm doing are really changing around it.
1:09
Speaker 8: All I'm doing is saying what we've done, but the rallies.
1:12
Speaker 2: That we're having, I mean, I'm doing them every night.
1:16
Speaker 7: This is the opening of a shipyard, but the rallies
1:19
Speaker 7: have changed things around.
1:20
Speaker 9: We're letting people know.
1:21
Speaker 2: What the Republicans have done, and it's incredible. It's incredible,
1:27
Speaker 2: he said, and he'll have a chance to experience that
1:30
Speaker 2: again a couple of hours from now as the president
1:32
Speaker 2: heads to San Antonio. to spend some time once again
1:36
Speaker 2: with Ken Paxton, who, as Kayleigh mentioned, has another audio
1:40
Speaker 2: tape leaked today blaming the war with Iran for his
1:43
Speaker 2: sagging poll numbers. So when these two get together backstage,
1:47
Speaker 2: it could be interesting. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent,
1:51
Speaker 2: is at the White House for the president's departure and
1:53
Speaker 2: all the plans ahead.
1:54
Speaker 8: Joins us now from the North Lawn. Tyler, it's good
1:57
Speaker 8: to see you.
1:58
Speaker 2: Will this be a campaign-style rally like we have continued
2:01
Speaker 2: to see, or are these two starting to have a
2:05
Speaker 2: more complicated relationship.
2:07
Speaker 6: It appears to be the latter, though, still. Ken Paxton
2:10
Speaker 6: is welcoming President Trump to Texas, along with some two
2:15
Speaker 6: incumbent Republicans that are running in very critical House races
2:19
Speaker 6: near San Antonio. That is Texas 35 and Texas 23,
2:22
Speaker 6: two congressional districts that are up against each other and
2:25
Speaker 6: have some closer-than-expected races. Now, as you outlined, there has
2:29
Speaker 6: been multiple headwinds for the GOP candidates in Texas, though
2:33
Speaker 6: the countermeasures To that, at least according to the White House,
2:36
Speaker 6: is that this could be a chance for President Trump
2:39
Speaker 6: to mobilize the base that may not be showing up
2:41
Speaker 6: in the polling. Because if you look for context at
2:44
Speaker 6: the last few elections, President Trump has won Texas by
2:47
Speaker 6: very wide margins. And the last election in 2024, he
2:51
Speaker 6: won it by 14 percentage points. The broader picture here
2:55
Speaker 6: is that a Democrat hasn't won statewide office in Texas
2:58
Speaker 6: when we're talking about that Senate seat since 1994. 94.
3:02
Speaker 6: But the fact that we are seeing so much time, money,
3:04
Speaker 6: and energy being poured into this race could be indicative
3:07
Speaker 6: of Republicans' concerns. Kayleigh mentioned it twice there in the
3:12
Speaker 6: last week, three times to Texas in the last month,
3:15
Speaker 6: underscored by the fact that the GOP midterm convention was
3:18
Speaker 6: held in Dallas and not one of those more traditional
3:21
Speaker 6: battleground states. So we'll have to see where it goes
3:25
Speaker 6: from here. But the polling at the moment doesn't really
3:27
Speaker 6: seem to be going in Republicans' favor. Joe and Kayleigh,
3:30
Speaker 6: I'd point you to new polling from research firm Equus
3:34
Speaker 6: shared with Politico this morning that when it comes to
3:36
Speaker 6: Latino voters in particular, approval in August, 31 percent disapproval,
3:41
Speaker 6: 63 percent. And Latino voters make up one third of
3:44
Speaker 6: Texas's electorate. Yep.
3:47
Speaker 5: A big deal, not just for the Senate race, but
3:49
Speaker 5: for all the House races as well. And the map
3:51
Speaker 5: that we've redrawn with Latino voters who voted for Trump
3:55
Speaker 5: in 2024 in mind. Tyler, while we do want to
3:58
Speaker 5: keep a focus on domestic politics with the midterm this close,
4:01
Speaker 5: I also want to ask you over the noise of
4:03
Speaker 5: I believe that was a golf cart that just passed
4:05
Speaker 5: behind you on the North Lawn about. Something that's happening abroad,
4:08
Speaker 5: because the president weighed in on this yesterday as well,
4:12
Speaker 5: the pneumonic plague scare coming out of Russia. The president
4:15
Speaker 5: said yesterday he had a scheduled phone call with Vladimir
4:18
Speaker 5: Putin about it and that we could know more today.
4:21
Speaker 5: Do we know anything yet?
4:23
Speaker 6: At this point, that's the latest. That's where it stands.
4:25
Speaker 6: The president saying that he could be able to share
4:27
Speaker 6: details as soon as today. We had also heard from
4:29
Speaker 6: the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who is urging
4:33
Speaker 6: Russia to be transparent in information on about this suspected plague.
4:37
Speaker 6: The comments come following the death of a worker at
4:39
Speaker 6: an anti-plague research institute in Russia's Siberian region. Of course,
4:43
Speaker 6: we're following this closely for any sort of developments, as
4:46
Speaker 6: is the CDC, which released an update earlier today saying
4:51
Speaker 6: that they are closely monitoring this. We heard from the U.S.
4:53
Speaker 6: Embassy in Russia, which reiterated U.S. citizens should not travel
4:57
Speaker 6: there and that Americans currently there should leave. We should say,
5:01
Speaker 6: Joe and Kayleigh, human cases of the plague are rare
5:03
Speaker 6: and can usually be treated with antibiotics. But, of course,
5:05
Speaker 6: we are waiting for more updates on what is happening
5:08
Speaker 6: right now. In particular, I will broaden this conversation out
5:12
Speaker 6: by saying, while we wait for confirmation on that call
5:14
Speaker 6: between President Trump and Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Putin did hold
5:17
Speaker 6: another call today, and that was with Iran's president, according
5:20
Speaker 6: to Iranian state media. likely discuss this, but probably some
5:24
Speaker 6: other things as well as an uptick in attacks in
5:28
Speaker 6: the Strait of Hormuz is surging in recent days.
5:32
Speaker 10: Yep.
5:32
Speaker 5: The war still a major factor in the Middle East
5:35
Speaker 5: and in these midterm elections. Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent
5:39
Speaker 5: live at the White House. Thank you so much for
5:41
Speaker 5: joining us. And now we play this all to our
5:45
Speaker 5: political panel as we await the president's travels to San
5:48
Speaker 5: Antonio today. Jeannie Shanzano is with us, Democracy Visiting Fellow
5:51
Speaker 5: at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center and a Democratic strategist,
5:53
Speaker 5: also a Bloomberg Politics contributor, alongside Jeff Burton today, co-founding
5:58
Speaker 5: partner at Maven Advocacy and Republican strategist. Welcome to you both. Jeff,
6:03
Speaker 5: I'll begin with you as the Republican. If you were
6:06
Speaker 5: advising Ken Paxton's campaign right now, should he be bringing
6:11
Speaker 5: the president ever closer as his poll numbers sag or
6:14
Speaker 5: could he do for a little bit of distance?
6:18
Speaker 11: I don't think he really has a choice. He's been
6:20
Speaker 11: tied to the president since the primary race. And before that,
6:23
Speaker 11: they've been buddy-buddy forever. So I think at this point,
6:27
Speaker 11: he's got to lean into it and hope that there's
6:29
Speaker 11: enough Trump support in the state to put him across
6:32
Speaker 11: the finish line. But I don't think separating himself is
6:36
Speaker 11: really an option.
6:37
Speaker 9: At this point.
6:39
Speaker 2: We're struck by this Equus poll, Jeannie, that Tyler mentioned
6:42
Speaker 2: that showed up in Politico this morning. President Trump's approval
6:46
Speaker 2: among Latinos. was 31%, disapproval 63%. While his net approval
6:53
Speaker 2: on cost of living was 57, a low in this
6:56
Speaker 2: tracking of Latinos who backed him in 2024. When we
7:00
Speaker 2: consider this voting block swinging, 42% say they are now
7:06
Speaker 2: disappointed or regret it. Does another MAGA rally help this
7:10
Speaker 2: or should he be speaking directly to those voters?
7:15
Speaker 8: He should be.
7:15
Speaker 3: Speaking to all voters. And whether he does a rally
7:18
Speaker 3: or not, the problem with Donald Trump is what he
7:21
Speaker 3: says when he's out there. You know, someone reminded me
7:25
Speaker 3: of an argument, which is, you know, I can take
7:28
Speaker 3: mean tweets when gas is $ 2 a gallon. And yet
7:33
Speaker 3: Donald Trump, he continues with these outrageous statements, which people
7:39
Speaker 3: may be willing to sort of look beyond, you know,
7:42
Speaker 3: Iran should bomb L.A. and San Diego, you know, stairs, ramps, stairs, ramps.
7:48
Speaker 3: I mean, all of this, giving out, you know, senators'
7:52
Speaker 3: cell phone numbers, that is something that people quite generally
7:56
Speaker 3: may look beyond when they are doing well. But when
7:59
Speaker 3: you are suffering to pay for gas, to pay for groceries,
8:02
Speaker 3: to afford rent, When you can't in Texas as a
8:05
Speaker 3: small construction, big owner of a construction company, get people
8:09
Speaker 3: to work because of the ICE raids, all of that
8:12
Speaker 3: nonsense doesn't play well. And so that's the problem with Trump.
8:16
Speaker 3: Not the rally itself, but what he says once he
8:19
Speaker 3: gets there. And of course, he continues to say he's
8:22
Speaker 3: on the ballot. And hence, you've got this drop off
8:26
Speaker 3: of people who have increasingly supported him since 2016, but
8:30
Speaker 3: now are saying enough is enough. They feel abandoned by him.
8:35
Speaker 5: Well, and we should point out at this moment that
8:38
Speaker 5: it's not just a rally for Ken Paxton, but also
8:40
Speaker 5: for Republican Congressman Carlos de la Cruz, who's in Texas's
8:44
Speaker 5: 35th district in this area, which of course is heavily
8:47
Speaker 5: reliant on the Latino vote. As we consider his seat
8:51
Speaker 5: and the seats all across Texas, Jeff, which of course
8:54
Speaker 5: look different in terms of their layout after Texas redrew
8:59
Speaker 5: its map with the Latino vote in mind, how many
9:01
Speaker 5: of those redrawn seats do you think are going to
9:04
Speaker 5: end up safely Republican in this cycle? Or how many
9:07
Speaker 5: of them could they lose?
9:09
Speaker 11: Well, if you look at the vote overall, they've become
9:12
Speaker 11: the truest swing voting bloc in the country. They moved
9:16
Speaker 11: toward Donald Trump in 20, away from Republicans in South Texas,
9:20
Speaker 11: specifically in 22, and then towards Trump in a major
9:25
Speaker 11: way come 2024.
9:27
Speaker 9: And you're seeing this balancing out.
9:30
Speaker 6: Again.
9:30
Speaker 9: And I think when you.
9:31
Speaker 11: Look at South Texas specifically, the redistricting effort put Monica
9:35
Speaker 11: de la Cruz, Congresswoman from South Texas, at risk for
9:40
Speaker 11: targeting Henry Quay, Congressman Henry Quayar and Vicente Gonzalez, two
9:45
Speaker 11: Democrats that are likely to pull off victory, somewhat unexpected victories.
9:50
Speaker 11: And with Carlos de la Cruz, he's a great candidate.
9:53
Speaker 9: He's Monica's brother.
9:55
Speaker 11: But it's a Trump plus 10 seat, and it's going
9:58
Speaker 11: to be a dogfight all the way out.
10:00
Speaker 9: So I think appealing.
10:02
Speaker 11: To Hispanic voters and the swing voters is what's.
10:06
Speaker 9: Going to make the difference between winning and losing here.
10:10
Speaker 11: And as Jeannie said, I think every Republican would love
10:13
Speaker 11: if Donald Trump could stand message a little bit more
10:15
Speaker 11: about the accomplishments like no taxes on tips, no taxes
10:18
Speaker 11: on Social Security, the housing bill that was passed, and
10:22
Speaker 11: some of the other stuff that he's done rather than
10:24
Speaker 11: being a little bit more off message. So a little
10:26
Speaker 11: focus today would be welcome by every Republican.
10:31
Speaker 2: This Equus poll that we were referring to among likely
10:35
Speaker 2: Latino voters, James Talrico leading Ken Paxton 58 to 33.
10:39
Speaker 8: These are not close.
10:41
Speaker 2: Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott 59 to 35.
10:47
Speaker 8: Remarkable gap here.
10:50
Speaker 2: Jeff, I want to stick with you on what Ken
10:51
Speaker 2: Paxton said about the war with Iran. This is a
10:55
Speaker 2: war that most Republican candidates at this point, Mike Rogers
10:59
Speaker 2: might be an exception saying that it needs to end now,
11:01
Speaker 2: but most Republican candidates have made the case that this
11:04
Speaker 2: is the cost of preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon.
11:09
Speaker 2: It's really something, as Paxton says, so many factors in
11:12
Speaker 2: this race are uncontrollable. This is on a leak tape
11:15
Speaker 2: that was picked up by Axios. I don't make the decisions,
11:19
Speaker 2: he said, and I don't know what is behind some
11:22
Speaker 2: of the decisions.
11:23
Speaker 8: Is he completely at the mercy? Of Washington right now?
11:27
Speaker 9: I think a lot of Republicans are. I don't think
11:29
Speaker 9: anybody's completely at the mercy.
11:31
Speaker 11: Good candidates running good campaigns can still win no matter
11:35
Speaker 11: how big the wave is. We've seen that in Republican
11:37
Speaker 11: waves of 2010 and Democratic waves.
11:41
Speaker 2: It sounds like he's saying, though, his campaign is being
11:43
Speaker 2: operated out of Washington. They're calling the shots on where
11:46
Speaker 2: he's going to go and what he's going to say.
11:49
Speaker 9: That's definitely not the case.
11:50
Speaker 11: I know his campaign consultant really well, and he's not
11:54
Speaker 11: exactly number one in Trump world.
11:55
Speaker 9: So I don't think that's the case.
11:57
Speaker 11: I think Ken Paxton meant more so along the lines
12:01
Speaker 11: of the issues that are coming from D.C. from what
12:04
Speaker 11: Donald Trump is talking about more so than actually operating
12:08
Speaker 11: the campaign.
12:11
Speaker 5: Well, and that's the Senate campaign, Jeannie. I want to
12:13
Speaker 5: ask you about the gubernatorial campaign as well, because one
12:15
Speaker 5: of those numbers Joe mentioned is how well the Democratic
12:18
Speaker 5: gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa is performing with these voters. And
12:22
Speaker 5: she's making a real run at Abbott as he campaigns
12:25
Speaker 5: for another term. How remarkable is it to you that
12:28
Speaker 5: Greg Abbott is not joining in this rally in San
12:31
Speaker 5: Antonio today?
12:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is so telling that I don't know, Kayleigh,
12:36
Speaker 3: is he cleaning his sock drawer? I don't I haven't
12:39
Speaker 3: heard what big event he has that he's not going
12:41
Speaker 3: to be with the president tonight. But, you know, it
12:44
Speaker 3: is very telling that he is not going to be there.
12:47
Speaker 3: Greg Abbott is a very good politician. He is deeply
12:51
Speaker 3: connected with his constituents in the state. He knows the
12:54
Speaker 3: way the wind is blowing. He is one of the
12:57
Speaker 3: first Republican governors to say, I see the data center
13:03
Speaker 3: issue is slipping away from us. I've got to change course.
13:06
Speaker 3: So when he says he needs to do whatever he
13:10
Speaker 3: is going to be doing tonight, It is a sure
13:12
Speaker 3: sign that it would be particularly problematic for him to
13:16
Speaker 3: be on that stage with Donald Trump. And he has
13:20
Speaker 3: to focus if he is going to beat her. And
13:22
Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like
13:25
Speaker 3: she could take him on here. He is going to
13:28
Speaker 3: have to focus like a laser beam on what he
13:31
Speaker 3: has done and will do for Texans, despite what is
13:35
Speaker 3: going on with the president, with Republicans. and what is
13:38
Speaker 3: happening in Washington, D.C., and separate himself as much as
13:41
Speaker 3: possible from Ken Paxton as well.
13:45
Speaker 2: Pull us back, Jeff. Are you buying the polls here?
13:49
Speaker 2: Is this story getting too frothy? If this was a
13:51
Speaker 2: market story, we're on Bloomberg. People would be lining up
13:54
Speaker 2: the shorts right now because everybody's on one side of
13:57
Speaker 2: the boat.
13:57
Speaker 8: What do you think about this conventional wisdom?
14:00
Speaker 9: This isn't a governor's race.
14:01
Speaker 11: Greg Abbott isn't going to win with his usual 60
14:04
Speaker 11: to 62%. He's going to win with 55 to 56.
14:07
Speaker 11: But the governor's race isn't a race. And the reason
14:10
Speaker 11: he's not at the rally right now, Jeannie's right. He's
14:12
Speaker 11: a very great politician. He's very in touch with Texas voters.
14:15
Speaker 11: But he did have a long scheduled barbecue in College Station.
14:19
Speaker 11: And one thing Texas knows is don't upset the Aggies.
14:23
Speaker 11: So he was with.
14:25
Speaker 9: The president last week in Harlingen in South Texas. And
14:28
Speaker 9: he already had this already and didn't see the need.
14:30
Speaker 9: So it can be a bigger political story to those
14:32
Speaker 9: who want.
14:33
Speaker 11: But at the end of the day, Gina Hinojosa, she's
14:39
Speaker 11: a credible candidate for sure, but she has no chance of.
14:42
Speaker 9: Winning in Texas.
14:44
Speaker 6: Wow.
14:45
Speaker 3: All right.
14:46
Speaker 8: I guess we'll leave it there for the panel today.
14:48
Speaker 6: No chance.
14:49
Speaker 5: Jeff Burton, great to have you on the show. Joining
14:51
Speaker 5: us from Maven Advocacy and Jeanne Shanzano, a Bloomberg Politics contributor.
14:56
Speaker 5: Thank you both for being our political panel on this Wednesday.
14:58
Speaker 5: 27 days out and Trump's in Texas today, but the
15:02
Speaker 5: tour apparently continues, Joe. I guess it's Tennessee at the
15:05
Speaker 5: end of this week that he'll be traveling to next.
15:08
Speaker 5: Once again, another red state.
15:10
Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely. This is interesting.
15:13
Speaker 2: Trump plus 22 district in 2024, which is just outside
15:17
Speaker 2: the threshold of what the DCCC is looking at. Anything
15:21
Speaker 2: Trump plus 21 appears to.
15:23
Speaker 8: Be fair game in their eyes.
15:24
Speaker 2: These are the kind of things that we're going to
15:25
Speaker 2: have to wait till November to see if they're bearing out.
15:28
Speaker 2: Big thanks to our panel. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee
15:30
Speaker 2: Lyons in Washington. It's October 7th. Coming up, we're going
15:33
Speaker 2: to spend some time with the Israeli ambassador to the
15:35
Speaker 2: United Nations, Danny Danone.
15:37
Speaker 8: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
15:39
Speaker 8: more coming up after this.
15:44
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
15:47
Speaker 4: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
15:50
Speaker 4: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
15:54
Speaker 4: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
15:57
Speaker 4: flagship New York station.
15:58
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
16:01
Speaker 2: Thank you for being with us here on the Wednesday
16:05
Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power. We're live from Washington alongside
16:08
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lyons. I'm Joe Matthew on this October 7th. With
16:11
Speaker 2: tributes taking place and remembrances around the world, we'll bring
16:16
Speaker 2: you a conversation in just a moment with Israel's ambassador
16:20
Speaker 2: to the United Nations, as Kayleigh mentioned. We're also going
16:22
Speaker 2: to connect with our reporter in Jerusalem who's been talking
16:27
Speaker 2: with us, Dan Williams, for some three years about the fallout,
16:31
Speaker 2: of course, the war in Gaza and the attempts to
16:34
Speaker 2: find peace and rebuild Israel. We'll start our coverage, though,
16:38
Speaker 2: with some recent remarks we heard from the former Secretary
16:41
Speaker 2: of State, Antony Blinken, who, of course, was serving in
16:45
Speaker 2: that role when this occurred. I sat down with him
16:48
Speaker 2: recently at our world headquarters in New York when he
16:52
Speaker 2: called complete fiction reports that had recently emerged in Israel,
16:57
Speaker 2: a newspaper report that suggested he rebuffed Qatar's offer. an
17:03
Speaker 2: offer from the prime minister of Qatar to broker the
17:06
Speaker 2: release of civilian hostages. He did, however, go on to
17:10
Speaker 2: describe his response on October 7th that drew him immediately
17:15
Speaker 2: to the region.
17:15
Speaker 8: Let's listen.
17:17
Speaker 12: I was in the region almost immediately, a few days
17:19
Speaker 12: after October 7th. Not just in Israel, but also in
17:22
Speaker 12: Qatar and Saudi Arabia and UAE and Jordan, Bahrain.
17:26
Speaker 8: All of these places.
17:28
Speaker 12: When I got to Qatar, my very good partner, colleague, friend,
17:33
Speaker 12: the foreign minister and prime minister said that there had
17:36
Speaker 12: been outreach from Hamas about talking about the hostages. That
17:42
Speaker 12: was great news for me because we had Americans who
17:45
Speaker 12: were being held hostage. And he said, but I'm having
17:48
Speaker 12: trouble getting through to the Israelis to try to figure
17:50
Speaker 12: out how we move forward with the conversation.
17:53
Speaker 8: So I said, I'm on it.
17:55
Speaker 12: Right after that meeting, I went back on my plane,
17:59
Speaker 12: got on the phone to very senior people in Israel
18:01
Speaker 12: and said, I've just heard that Hamas is at least
18:03
Speaker 12: ready to talk. There was no offer to free all
18:07
Speaker 12: the hostages.
18:07
Speaker 8: Or the civilian hostages.
18:09
Speaker 12: If they'd wanted to free the civilian hostages, never mind
18:11
Speaker 12: that they never should have been taken in the first place,
18:13
Speaker 12: they could have done it any time. No, the only
18:15
Speaker 12: offer that was on the table was, we're prepared to talk.
18:19
Speaker 12: We need a channel to do that. I got on
18:20
Speaker 12: the phone with the Israelis and said, you need to
18:22
Speaker 12: designate someone immediately to to engage in these conversations, and
18:25
Speaker 12: they did.
18:26
Speaker 9: Yeah.
18:26
Speaker 2: Was any hostage release proposal put before you in the
18:30
Speaker 2: first 72 hours?
18:31
Speaker 8: Is that right?
18:31
Speaker 6: No.
18:32
Speaker 9: Not that I saw.
18:33
Speaker 2: There's reporting separately by this same group, Harris, that the
18:38
Speaker 2: UAE president warned Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas was planning this
18:42
Speaker 2: attack days before it happened.
18:43
Speaker 12: Do you believe that's true? Look, I don't know the
18:47
Speaker 12: substance of that. I can tell you we didn't hear that.
18:50
Speaker 12: I can tell you that while... People might have said
18:54
Speaker 12: general things about heightened tensions, heightened risks. I'm not aware
18:58
Speaker 12: of anyone saying or any report that we received, I
19:02
Speaker 12: can't speak to the Israelis, that said this is going
19:05
Speaker 12: to happen in such and such a place, in such
19:07
Speaker 12: and such a time, by such and such a means.
19:09
Speaker 12: That I didn't see, but I really can't speak to
19:12
Speaker 12: what the Israelis heard.
19:13
Speaker 2: Will it be in the next president who has to
19:14
Speaker 2: solve Gaza?
19:18
Speaker 8: My conviction is this.
19:21
Speaker 12: When you cut everything away, I think we have to,
19:27
Speaker 12: if we're ever going to solve not just Gaza, but
19:30
Speaker 12: the larger problem, here is the reality.
19:34
Speaker 9: If you're part of the.
19:35
Speaker 12: Crowd from the river to the sea that says you
19:38
Speaker 12: want Israel to go away, guess what?
19:40
Speaker 8: It's not.
19:41
Speaker 12: If you're part of the greater Israel crowd that wants
19:43
Speaker 12: the Palestinians to go away, guess what?
19:46
Speaker 8: They're not.
19:47
Speaker 12: There are 7 million Jews. There are 7 million Arabs.
19:50
Speaker 12: No one is going anywhere. And until you reconcile that
19:54
Speaker 12: basic reality, you are part of the problem, not the solution.
19:58
Speaker 9: What is the solution?
19:59
Speaker 12: The solution is what it's been, even though no one
20:01
Speaker 12: seems to believe it anymore. A secure Israel, a sovereign Palestine.
20:06
Speaker 12: We need to see a renewed groundswell of support, not
20:09
Speaker 12: just in those countries, but in the United States for
20:12
Speaker 12: that proposition.
20:15
Speaker 5: So let's extend the conversation now as we consider what
20:19
Speaker 5: comes next with the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations,
20:23
Speaker 5: Danny Danone, who is back with us here on Bloomberg
20:25
Speaker 5: TV and radio. Ambassador, thank you for your time on
20:28
Speaker 5: what I'm sure is a somber day for you and
20:30
Speaker 5: so many that you know as we mark three years
20:32
Speaker 5: since some 1,200 Israelis were killed and hundreds were taken hostage.
20:37
Speaker 5: But in the three years since, we've also seen tens
20:39
Speaker 5: of thousands killed in Gaza and much of the Gaza
20:42
Speaker 5: Strip destroyed. So how close is what began on October
20:47
Speaker 5: 7th to being over?
20:49
Speaker 9: Thank you for having me.
20:51
Speaker 7: I think today we remember what happened and who was
20:54
Speaker 7: behind it. And I don't accept the attempt to actually
20:58
Speaker 7: make this day a day about Gaza. And I saw
21:01
Speaker 7: the statement of the mayor of New York trying to
21:04
Speaker 7: make it a day about the suffering in Gaza. And
21:07
Speaker 7: that's not acceptable. You know, we have one day a
21:10
Speaker 7: year to remember the victims of Remember the families, to
21:14
Speaker 7: pray with them, to stand with them. Every day, you know,
21:17
Speaker 7: we see the attacks against Israel at the UN and
21:19
Speaker 7: coming from the mayor and other places that want to
21:22
Speaker 7: attack Israel. But this day is a special day, and
21:25
Speaker 7: we want to respect it, respect it. We know we
21:28
Speaker 7: didn't choose to fight against Gaza. We had a very
21:31
Speaker 7: peaceful border with Gaza. before October 7th. There were no
21:36
Speaker 7: settlements in Gaza. I want to remind you that we
21:38
Speaker 7: left Gaza in 2005. But Hamas ideology, that's what brought
21:44
Speaker 7: this disaster on us and it brought suffering on the
21:47
Speaker 7: people of Gaza. So I think the next stage is
21:50
Speaker 7: to continue with the President's plan to make sure that
21:53
Speaker 7: Hamas is disarmed and allow the reconstruction of Gaza. But
21:56
Speaker 7: it will happen only after disarmament of Hamas.
22:02
Speaker 2: Is Gaza still unsecured after three years of bombings and
22:06
Speaker 2: troop deployments, Ambassador?
22:08
Speaker 7: So when you look at the map of Gaza, there
22:11
Speaker 7: are still major parts, mainly Gaza City, that Hamas is
22:15
Speaker 7: in charge of the city. We agreed to the ceasefire
22:18
Speaker 7: about a year ago, but according to the agreement, by
22:21
Speaker 7: now Hamas should have been out of the game. They
22:24
Speaker 7: should have actually given the weapons, and allow other forces
22:28
Speaker 7: to govern Gaza. They are not doing it.
22:30
Speaker 9: They are playing games. They are buying time.
22:33
Speaker 7: We have no desire to stay in Gaza or to
22:36
Speaker 7: run the city of Gaza. On the contrary, we are tired.
22:40
Speaker 7: We paid a heavy price. We want to move on
22:42
Speaker 7: with our lives. But we understand that if Hamas will
22:45
Speaker 7: stay in power, Israel will not be safe and there
22:48
Speaker 7: will be no future for the Palestinians in Gaza.
22:53
Speaker 5: Well, in returning to your point, Ambassador, about not wanting
22:55
Speaker 5: to make today about the days and years that have
22:58
Speaker 5: followed and what has taken place in Gaza, what about
23:00
Speaker 5: the days that preceded October 7th? As we have seen
23:03
Speaker 5: now credible reporting from a number of outlets about warnings
23:07
Speaker 5: that were given to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli
23:10
Speaker 5: government that something was coming. How did this security failure
23:14
Speaker 5: ultimately happen? Do you not also need to take today
23:17
Speaker 5: to assess what exactly went wrong and who, if anyone, could.
23:20
Speaker 13: Have stopped this?
23:22
Speaker 7: Absolutely. We have to learn the lessons. I can tell
23:25
Speaker 7: you back then I was in Israel in the Knesset,
23:27
Speaker 7: in the parliament. I was sitting on the subcommittee for intelligence.
23:32
Speaker 7: I was exposed to all the materials. We had no clue.
23:35
Speaker 7: We had no clue about what's coming. You know, we
23:38
Speaker 7: haven't seen any... You have sweats all day long and
23:42
Speaker 7: you have assessments, but there was no concrete intelligence about
23:47
Speaker 7: what's coming. And I think we have to learn the lesson.
23:50
Speaker 7: You know, when I was a child, I learned about
23:52
Speaker 7: the Yom Kippur War that took place 53 years ago.
23:55
Speaker 7: And I asked myself, how could it happen that we
23:57
Speaker 7: were caught by surprise? And 50 years later, it happened again.
24:01
Speaker 7: I think the lesson is that we always have to
24:03
Speaker 7: think that it can happen any day.
24:07
Speaker 2: You're suggesting that you were not aware of these warnings, Ambassador.
24:10
Speaker 2: But is it true that Egypt and the UAE directly
24:13
Speaker 2: warned Benjamin Netanyahu?
24:16
Speaker 7: I don't think for what I know that there was
24:18
Speaker 7: a specific threat of a specific attack. I think in general,
24:23
Speaker 7: there were warnings, not for the first time, but I
24:26
Speaker 7: don't think they knew about what exactly is going to happen.
24:33
Speaker 5: Well, of course, it is now a matter of hindsight
24:36
Speaker 5: as this did happen and the world is still living
24:38
Speaker 5: with the consequences. To return to the notion that Joe
24:42
Speaker 5: was asking you about just a moment ago as to
24:45
Speaker 5: how exactly You can see the situation in Gaza resolved.
24:49
Speaker 5: To what extent is Israel still actively in communications with
24:52
Speaker 5: the United States and other members of the Board of
24:54
Speaker 5: Peace about a plan to reconstruct and rebuild Gaza, or
24:58
Speaker 5: is it simply that forward progress is not really happening
25:02
Speaker 5: right now in that regard?
25:04
Speaker 7: No, we are in a daily connection with the Board
25:07
Speaker 7: of Peace. During the UN High-Level Week, there were the
25:10
Speaker 7: events that we attended. We have collaboration and cooperation. But
25:15
Speaker 7: I think we have to speak about the elephant in
25:17
Speaker 7: the room. If Hamas is there, nothing will happen. with
25:20
Speaker 7: all due respect to the great plans of the Board
25:23
Speaker 7: of Peace and with all due respect to the country
25:25
Speaker 7: that gave a lot of money for the reconstruction in Gaza.
25:29
Speaker 7: But if Hamas is still in power, they will take
25:32
Speaker 7: the money and they will use it to build weapons
25:35
Speaker 7: against Israel. They will not reconstruct Gaza. So I think
25:39
Speaker 7: the key issue is to make sure that there is
25:41
Speaker 7: real disarmament. And I say real because I heard some
25:44
Speaker 7: ideas that Hamas offered to put all their weapons in
25:48
Speaker 7: warehouses inside Gaza and that they will control those warehouses.
25:54
Speaker 9: That is a joke.
25:55
Speaker 8: It's not disarmament. Disarmament, there are two options.
25:58
Speaker 7: Either they give the weapons to an international force or organizations,
26:03
Speaker 7: or they actually destroy the weapons while it's supervised. But
26:07
Speaker 7: keeping it somewhere else, it will not work for us.
26:12
Speaker 2: Ambassador, we're preparing for elections here as you are in Israel.
26:15
Speaker 2: And if Democrats win the majority of the Senate, as
26:17
Speaker 2: some are now predicting, Senator Chris Coons is likely to
26:21
Speaker 2: chair the important Foreign Relations Committee.
26:24
Speaker 8: He just held.
26:25
Speaker 2: an important interview in which he said some surprising things
26:30
Speaker 2: about Israel, a fairly sharp break he referred to in
26:33
Speaker 2: his thinking as he follows the three years since October
26:38
Speaker 2: 7 and the military response. Kuhn says he wants a, quote,
26:42
Speaker 2: thorough reexamination of the U.S.-Israeli relationship and is open to
26:48
Speaker 2: imposing sanctions on Benjamin Netanyahu, something once considered unthinkable. What
26:55
Speaker 2: will it mean for Israel if Democrats take control of
26:58
Speaker 2: the Senate? Are you prepared to be sanctioned?
27:00
Speaker 9: Well, two points.
27:02
Speaker 7: First of all, I believe in the bond and the
27:04
Speaker 7: alliance between Israel and the United States. It's much stronger
27:08
Speaker 7: than any senator, congressman, or Israeli prime minister.
27:13
Speaker 8: It's based on values.
27:14
Speaker 7: And our enemy is fighting us because we share the
27:17
Speaker 7: same values. Iran will not change their policy if you're
27:21
Speaker 7: going to have Democrats or Republicans, or if Netanyahu will
27:24
Speaker 7: be the prime minister or not. They will come against
27:26
Speaker 7: us both. But I am worried because I do see
27:29
Speaker 7: a trend worldwide of politicians attacking Israel to score points.
27:35
Speaker 7: We saw it in the past only in Muslim countries. Unfortunately,
27:39
Speaker 7: today we see it in Europe. Take the UK, for example,
27:42
Speaker 7: the Labour government. They attack Israel. They speak about sanctions
27:46
Speaker 7: to score points politically. And we see some of that
27:50
Speaker 7: behavior also in the U.S., both in the Democrats and
27:54
Speaker 7: the Republican Party. So yes, we are worried about those
27:57
Speaker 7: radical voices, but I believe that because we share the
28:00
Speaker 7: same values and the same enemies, we will find ways
28:03
Speaker 7: to work with any administration.
28:07
Speaker 5: And do you expect Ambassador finally to continue to work
28:10
Speaker 5: with whatever administration results or whatever government results from the
28:14
Speaker 5: elections this month? Will you still be ambassador to the
28:17
Speaker 5: United Nations regardless of whether it's Netanyahu wins or not?
28:21
Speaker 7: Yes, you know, I decided to become a diplomat, so
28:24
Speaker 7: now I work for the Minister of Foreign Affairs, so
28:26
Speaker 7: I expect to stay here. You know, I'm the only
28:29
Speaker 7: one to come to serve twice at the UN, so
28:31
Speaker 7: it's not going to be forever, but I will stay
28:33
Speaker 7: for at least for another year. But I think the
28:35
Speaker 7: strength of the democracy of Israel, that we don't know
28:38
Speaker 7: the outcome of the elections, and it shows that Israel
28:41
Speaker 7: is a real democracy, and we will expect and respect
28:45
Speaker 7: the decision.
28:46
Speaker 1: Of the Israelis.
28:48
Speaker 2: It's good to have you back, Ambassador, and we appreciate
28:50
Speaker 2: your time on an important day.
28:53
Speaker 8: Danny Danone, Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations.
28:56
Speaker 2: As we compare notes now with Bloomberg's Jerusalem reporter, Dan
29:01
Speaker 2: Williams has brought us fantastic reporting around all of this
29:05
Speaker 2: for the last three years and is kind to join us.
29:07
Speaker 8: Late in the day here on Balance of Power.
29:09
Speaker 2: Dan, it's good to have you back after listening to
29:11
Speaker 2: that conversation with the ambassador. How concerned is the administration
29:16
Speaker 2: in Israel right now about its own elections and ours
29:19
Speaker 2: here in the U.S.
29:21
Speaker 10: There certainly is concern, and it's affecting the observances of
29:26
Speaker 10: the third anniversary of the cataclysm that was the October
29:30
Speaker 10: 7th attack. I'm actually struck by how raw it's felt
29:33
Speaker 10: for many Israelis, how immediate.
29:36
Speaker 9: There's indeed been.
29:37
Speaker 10: Wall-to-wall coverage about it in the media. and the press,
29:41
Speaker 10: and the unearthing of videos not previously seen, accounts not
29:45
Speaker 10: previously published. The reason I think compared to the two
29:48
Speaker 10: previous anniversaries is that whereas In the first year, Israel
29:51
Speaker 10: was in the thick of the fighting in Lebanon, as
29:54
Speaker 10: well as Gaza, as well as against Iran and in Syria.
29:58
Speaker 10: And in the second year, Israelis were distracted by the
30:01
Speaker 10: Trump-led efforts to achieve a ceasefire and recover the last
30:04
Speaker 10: of the hostages from Gaza. Now major combat has ended.
30:08
Speaker 10: And as you noted, those elections are looming. So it's
30:11
Speaker 10: also a reckoning, both internally with the government of Benjamin
30:15
Speaker 10: Netanyahu and internationally with the impact that this has had
30:19
Speaker 10: on Israel's standing and may have on Israel's standing in Washington,
30:24
Speaker 10: a place where Israel can no longer count on the
30:26
Speaker 10: bipartisan support that it almost took for granted in decades past.
30:31
Speaker 10: So yes, Israelis are reflecting on this. There is a
30:34
Speaker 10: great deal of concern. It's remarkable, I think noteworthy, that
30:38
Speaker 10: Netanyahu's Likud party imposed a moratorium on its members on
30:42
Speaker 10: commenting during these observances today so that no one would
30:46
Speaker 10: have a slip of the lip that would distract something
30:48
Speaker 10: of color, something considered untoward. But I think as soon
30:52
Speaker 10: as these observances are behind us, we will hear recrimination
30:55
Speaker 10: from the opposition, including about Israel's position, and defiance from
30:59
Speaker 10: the Israeli prime minister who argues that That even if
31:02
Speaker 10: he was considered Chamberlain at the outset of this war
31:05
Speaker 10: for not having prevented that Hamas attack, he's managed to
31:08
Speaker 10: recast himself as a Churchill of Israel and deserves to
31:11
Speaker 10: be reelected and appreciated internationally eventually, if not now.
31:16
Speaker 5: Well, so talk to us, Dan, about the conversation happening
31:19
Speaker 5: domestically in Israel about the reporting that in part has
31:22
Speaker 5: come from Israeli outlets about what Netanyahu may have been
31:25
Speaker 5: warned of prior to October 7th. The ambassador obviously just
31:29
Speaker 5: told us as a member of the Knesset he knew
31:32
Speaker 5: very little about these warnings. But does the public believe
31:35
Speaker 5: Netanyahu knew something that he did not act on?
31:38
Speaker 10: Again, it is very, very hard to separate from the election.
31:42
Speaker 10: This really does run along partisan lines. With all due
31:45
Speaker 10: respect to my fellow journalists, it strikes me as remarkable
31:48
Speaker 10: that these reports about events that happened or allegedly happened
31:51
Speaker 10: three years ago are emerging now in the run-up to
31:53
Speaker 10: those elections.
31:54
Speaker 9: I don't think it's a mistake.
31:56
Speaker 10: You had Secretary Blinken speaking to Joe in that recording
31:59
Speaker 10: saying that he wasn't aware of such a tip-off. One
32:02
Speaker 10: would assume that the Americans, being as close to the
32:05
Speaker 10: UAE at least as Israel is, would have known about it.
32:07
Speaker 10: I also think this is a bit of a red herring.
32:10
Speaker 10: There's no strategic surprise here. The Israelis themselves, the Israeli
32:13
Speaker 10: defense minister, the Israeli president, warned that during the judicial
32:17
Speaker 10: reform crisis of Israel in 2023, before October 7th, Israel
32:21
Speaker 10: was opening itself up to an enemy attack and Israel's
32:24
Speaker 10: enemies were potentially preparing an attack.
32:26
Speaker 9: The surprise here was operational. It was tactical.
32:29
Speaker 10: It was largely because of immense Hamas forethought and successful
32:33
Speaker 10: security secrecy, operational secrecy. So I really am not impressed
32:38
Speaker 10: by the idea that Israel had generalized warnings. It had
32:41
Speaker 10: those warnings publicly by its own officials. What this really
32:44
Speaker 10: was a tactical upset. A series of events that I
32:48
Speaker 10: think to Hamas' surprise as much as anyone else's allowed
32:52
Speaker 10: Hamas to achieve what was really a cataclysmic attack and
32:56
Speaker 10: set off a chain of events, as you noted at
32:57
Speaker 10: the outset of this segment, that the entire world is
33:00
Speaker 10: feeling to this day.
33:02
Speaker 2: This is why your perspective is so important for us
33:05
Speaker 2: to have today. Dan, we've been watching you cover this.
33:09
Speaker 2: as I mentioned, for three years. And it's not been
33:12
Speaker 2: unusual to see you have to dial in from a
33:15
Speaker 2: bomb shelter. It's not unusual to hear your reporting with
33:19
Speaker 2: sirens in the background. And I'm just curious, this is
33:22
Speaker 2: such a personal experience in a way that Kaylee and
33:25
Speaker 2: I cannot understand. This is referred to frequently as the
33:28
Speaker 2: 9-11 of Israel. I'm just curious to what extent it
33:34
Speaker 2: has changed the way you do your work as a
33:36
Speaker 2: journalist and live life every day in Jerusalem.
33:41
Speaker 10: Well, thank you for that kind of observation. It's been
33:43
Speaker 10: difficult all around. I think on a daily basis, it
33:46
Speaker 10: would be fair to say far more difficult for Gazans
33:51
Speaker 10: or for Southern Lebanese. But certainly in Israel's perspective, just
33:55
Speaker 10: to put this in American terms, And only military casualties,
33:58
Speaker 10: keep in mind that October 7th, two-thirds of the dead
34:01
Speaker 10: were civilians, many of them partygoers, many of them families
34:04
Speaker 10: killed in their homes. But if you look at the
34:07
Speaker 10: military dead, Israel's losses in two years of major operations,
34:11
Speaker 10: and adjust it for population size, it's something in the
34:14
Speaker 10: order of four and a half times the number of
34:16
Speaker 10: soldiers the United States lost in the entirety of the
34:19
Speaker 10: wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. That is a major sacrifice
34:23
Speaker 10: on the part of a country that shows no sign
34:26
Speaker 10: of waning in its willingness to return to what it
34:28
Speaker 10: sees as an existential war, a war of no choice,
34:32
Speaker 10: a war of self-defense. The result has been very interesting
34:35
Speaker 10: to report on. However, and here I'll refer back... to
34:39
Speaker 10: your very powerful interview with Secretary Blinken that you excerpted
34:43
Speaker 10: a few minutes ago. He is returning to the two-state solution.
34:46
Speaker 10: He says there's no alternative to it. Ambassador Danone would
34:50
Speaker 10: dispute that, I assume, as does the Israeli government. I
34:53
Speaker 10: think the biggest adjustment for many people of a certain generation,
34:55
Speaker 10: just as myself, is to try to adjust to the
34:58
Speaker 10: idea that the two-state solution may indeed be a dead
35:00
Speaker 10: letter and to try to predict what would come in
35:03
Speaker 10: its stead.
35:06
Speaker 14: All right.
35:07
Speaker 5: A question that is still yet to be answered. Dan Williams,
35:10
Speaker 5: thank you so much. We appreciate you and your work
35:12
Speaker 5: in joining us today on this October 7th on Balance
35:15
Speaker 5: of Power.
35:15
Speaker 13: We appreciate it.
35:16
Speaker 8: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
35:19
Speaker 8: more coming up after this.
35:23
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
35:27
Speaker 4: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
35:30
Speaker 4: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
35:33
Speaker 4: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
35:36
Speaker 4: flagship New York station.
35:38
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
35:40
Speaker 8: This is Balance of Power again live from Washington.
35:45
Speaker 2: And thanks for being with us as President Trump takes
35:47
Speaker 2: a few questions from reporters in the Oval Office. We
35:50
Speaker 2: are seeing a couple of headlines on the terminal, and
35:51
Speaker 2: one is important to mention. He says that he does
35:54
Speaker 2: have a call set up with Vladimir Putin. Kayleigh, this
35:57
Speaker 2: was the call about the plague. I can't believe I'm
36:00
Speaker 2: saying that right now, but there is so little we
36:02
Speaker 2: understand about these reports of a fatality in Siberia. The
36:06
Speaker 2: president had promised an update today. I don't know that
36:09
Speaker 2: we have one, but he will be speaking to the
36:11
Speaker 2: Russian president about this.
36:13
Speaker 5: Yes. He says he has a call set up and
36:15
Speaker 5: admitting that he doesn't know a lot about this either.
36:18
Speaker 5: He suggested that they don't think it's a bioweapon, that we,
36:22
Speaker 5: I guess the United States, hope it's under control, but
36:25
Speaker 5: telling reporters that Russia isn't saying much. So perhaps he
36:28
Speaker 5: can get Putin to say a bit more to him
36:30
Speaker 5: on that scheduled phone call. And of course, we'll keep
36:32
Speaker 5: you up to date on this story as it develops.
36:35
Speaker 5: Not exactly what I had on my bingo.
36:37
Speaker 1: Card for 2026.
36:38
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'd like to be able to get through the midterms,
36:42
Speaker 5: which are stressful enough without.
36:43
Speaker 8: We have 27 days to go.
36:45
Speaker 5: 27 days to go.
36:46
Speaker 9: Indeed.
36:46
Speaker 5: And President Trump continuing his crisscrossing of the country, heading
36:50
Speaker 5: to San Antonio, Texas for a rally this evening to
36:52
Speaker 5: benefit the likes of Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton. So
36:56
Speaker 5: on that and more, we turn to Bill Ferrys, who's
36:58
Speaker 5: helping lead our midterms coverage here at Bloomberg and is
37:01
Speaker 5: here with us in our Washington, D.C.
37:03
Speaker 3: Studio.
37:04
Speaker 5: So, Bill, let's talk about Texas first, because obviously Paxton
37:07
Speaker 5: is in a competitive race and in many polls is
37:09
Speaker 5: actually down against the Democrat James Tallarico. Governor Greg Abbott
37:14
Speaker 5: finds himself in a competitive race as well. And Greg
37:16
Speaker 5: Abbott is not going to be in attendance with President
37:19
Speaker 5: Trump and Paxton today.
37:21
Speaker 1: What does that tell us?
37:22
Speaker 14: Well, yeah, it's a fascinating situation. Greg Abbott in a
37:26
Speaker 14: much tighter race than I think he or many analysts
37:29
Speaker 14: would have forecast even, say, three months ago. He's got
37:32
Speaker 14: this race with State Representative Gina Hosa, and that's looking
37:37
Speaker 14: very tight. And he's going to be about 300 miles
37:40
Speaker 14: away from the president tonight. So we've seen Greg Abbott
37:43
Speaker 14: also responding to a lot of the same pressures from
37:47
Speaker 14: voters about the economy. cost of living, the tariff war,
37:52
Speaker 14: and AI data centers. We've seen him. We've seen some
37:57
Speaker 14: other top Republicans shifting their policies as we get closer
38:00
Speaker 14: to November 3rd, even in some of these really historically
38:04
Speaker 14: Republican states.
38:05
Speaker 2: You know the walls are closing in when Republicans start
38:08
Speaker 2: crossing the president, or at least Finding some sunlight between them,
38:12
Speaker 2: Mike Rogers is one. It was time to end the
38:14
Speaker 2: war with Iran. He's up with a new ad today
38:16
Speaker 2: saying Canadians are not our enemy. I guess that's a
38:19
Speaker 2: controversial view to some. You point out Abbott. Ken Paxton
38:23
Speaker 2: is on an audio tape that just came out again
38:25
Speaker 2: saying that The Iran war is to blame for his
38:28
Speaker 2: sagging polling numbers.
38:29
Speaker 8: Is this chorus going to get louder as we get closer?
38:33
Speaker 1: I think so.
38:33
Speaker 14: I mean, along with those examples you mentioned, we had
38:36
Speaker 14: the first big debate in Maine last night between Susan
38:38
Speaker 14: Collins and Troy Jackson. Collins put on the defensive multiple
38:43
Speaker 14: times over her support for Trump.
38:45
Speaker 1: For many of his nominees.
38:47
Speaker 14: She pushed back saying that, hey, I've argued to have
38:50
Speaker 14: some of these tariffs eased on things that hit Maine's
38:53
Speaker 14: economy particularly hard.
38:54
Speaker 9: Mm-hmm.
38:55
Speaker 14: But Troy Jackson saying, listen, we can't eat cement. We
38:58
Speaker 14: can't eat rock rock salt. Those are the things that
39:01
Speaker 14: that you're talking about. And and I think, you know,
39:05
Speaker 14: in these races, Collins also pushed on whether Trump would
39:08
Speaker 14: be campaigning. in Maine, something he suggested earlier this week
39:12
Speaker 14: he would be up for doing. And she twice had
39:15
Speaker 14: to say, I don't think Donald Trump is coming to Maine.
39:17
Speaker 14: So there are places where I think the president's brand
39:20
Speaker 14: is still very strong. But in a lot of these
39:23
Speaker 14: really tight battlegrounds, the places the Democrats are trying to
39:27
Speaker 14: flip to take majority control, there's a lot more pushback
39:31
Speaker 14: on what the president's message has been.
39:33
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, Susan Collins having to say, I don't think
39:35
Speaker 5: I'm the president's favorite senator to try to create some
39:38
Speaker 5: evidence around the notion that he might not be coming
39:41
Speaker 5: to Maine. It's remarkable, though, that we came into this
39:44
Speaker 5: cycle knowing Maine was going to be one of the battlegrounds.
39:47
Speaker 5: We didn't know that we would be questioning places, however,
39:50
Speaker 5: like Alaska or Iowa or Kansas, even South Carolina. coming
39:56
Speaker 5: into the conversation now. Just how wide is the potential
40:00
Speaker 5: map looking for Democrats at this point?
40:03
Speaker 14: The four-seat flip that Democrats have always needed looked like
40:06
Speaker 14: really a stretch six months ago, even less. What we're
40:10
Speaker 14: seeing is that pathway to winning four seats is widening
40:14
Speaker 14: a lot. You mentioned Alaska, Kansas now up for grabs more.
40:19
Speaker 14: We saw the GOP cutting off funding for its Senate
40:22
Speaker 14: candidate in North Carolina, Michael Whatley, and shifting some of
40:26
Speaker 14: that money to places like Kansas, also to places like
40:29
Speaker 14: South Carolina, where Darlene Graham seems to be in a
40:33
Speaker 14: much tighter race. against her opponent, Andy Andrews. So the
40:36
Speaker 14: map is widening for Democrats. I still think four seats,
40:40
Speaker 14: you have to figure out where those come from.
40:42
Speaker 8: A lot can happen.
40:43
Speaker 14: The Senate is a very hard place to change majority control.
40:50
Speaker 14: But the Democrats, their morale is much higher than it was, say,
40:53
Speaker 14: at the start of the year.
40:54
Speaker 8: He's covering midterms for us every day.
40:56
Speaker 2: Bloomberg senior editor Bill Ferry's Thank you so much, Bill,
40:59
Speaker 2: and a treat for you. We've been talking a lot
41:01
Speaker 2: about these ratings changes at the Cook Political Report. You
41:03
Speaker 2: know who's behind them? Three in particular, by the way,
41:07
Speaker 2: that blew a lot of minds this week. In favor
41:09
Speaker 2: of Democrats, Kansas, North Carolina, New Hampshire, the Senate races,
41:15
Speaker 2: none other than the Senate and governor's editor at the
41:18
Speaker 2: Cook Political Report, joins us right now. Jessica Taylor, it's
41:21
Speaker 2: great to see you, Jessica. North Carolina, I get it.
41:24
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, I follow the logic. What is happening in Kansas?
41:30
Speaker 15: That's sort of the question I think everyone is asking
41:32
Speaker 15: right now. It's really the Cinderella story of the cycle.
41:36
Speaker 15: Democrats have a stronger than expected nominee in Adam Hamilton,
41:40
Speaker 15: who's a Methodist minister. There's always sort of someone this
41:43
Speaker 15: every cycle that was caught sleeping and didn't take their
41:46
Speaker 15: race seriously enough. And I think the best contender for
41:48
Speaker 15: that title this year is Roger Marshall. Kansas is still
41:54
Speaker 15: a tough state. It's a Trump plus 16 state. But remember,
41:56
Speaker 15: it also it has the longest drought of not having
41:59
Speaker 15: elected a senator, not since 1932. So almost 100 years.
42:03
Speaker 15: It does have a Democratic governor, though. So it has
42:06
Speaker 15: elected Democrats statewide as recently as four years ago. But
42:11
Speaker 15: I think that there's unhappiness with the president, certainly. His
42:15
Speaker 15: numbers have fallen in a state that, again, he carried
42:17
Speaker 15: very comfortably. But I think there's something happening with the
42:20
Speaker 15: agriculture economy in particular. It's like it is in states
42:24
Speaker 15: like Iowa. I see a lot of similarities between Iowa
42:26
Speaker 15: and Iowa. in Kansas with tariffs, with beef, with prices
42:33
Speaker 15: of diesel and fertilizer prices in particular that have been impacted.
42:37
Speaker 15: So I think there's almost a perfect storm of you
42:39
Speaker 15: have a very good Democratic candidate, a Republican candidate that
42:43
Speaker 15: is sagging in an environment that is benefiting Democrats right now.
42:48
Speaker 5: Well, what's so interesting is that we are seeing Democrats
42:50
Speaker 5: outperform expectations, at least in polling, in so many of
42:54
Speaker 5: these red states like Kansas and Iowa. But you're also
42:57
Speaker 5: seeing pockets where there's actually some relative Democratic weakness in
43:02
Speaker 5: blue states that they aren't performing as well as they
43:04
Speaker 5: would be expected on friendlier turf. Jessica, what do you
43:08
Speaker 5: think is behind that dynamic?
43:10
Speaker 15: I think in the two blue states that I'm watching
43:13
Speaker 15: the most, I mean, well, Michigan's held by a Democrat. So,
43:16
Speaker 15: I mean, I think you have weak Democratic nominees there.
43:18
Speaker 15: Abdul Al-Sayed continues to be a very controversial nominee, not
43:22
Speaker 15: only progressive, but, you know, there's questions about how he's
43:25
Speaker 15: going to do with Jewish voters and Black voters in
43:27
Speaker 15: particular in Michigan. You were talking about Mike Rogers' ad there.
43:31
Speaker 15: He's trying to sort of separate himself from the president.
43:34
Speaker 15: I still think that the environment is difficult for a
43:36
Speaker 15: Republican in Michigan right now. But Maine is one that
43:39
Speaker 15: the environment is perfect for a Democrat. It's the only
43:42
Speaker 15: state up this cycle that Republicans hold that Harris carried
43:45
Speaker 15: by seven points. But Susan Collins, they had a debate
43:48
Speaker 15: last night, and Troy Jackson, he just became the nominee
43:51
Speaker 15: in July, so he didn't have much of a runway.
43:54
Speaker 15: But I think he struggles to come across on the
43:57
Speaker 15: stump sometimes. But I think there's a question of if
43:59
Speaker 15: he's a generic enough Democrat, then he could unseat Collins.
44:02
Speaker 15: But she's managed to outrun the national environment so much before.
44:06
Speaker 15: And polling has been wrong in this state in particular
44:09
Speaker 15: in 2020. Collins really emphasized at that debate last night
44:12
Speaker 15: the amount of money that she brings home for Maine.
44:19
Speaker 15: Jackson really criticized her for saying some of these projects there,
44:23
Speaker 15: he said you can't eat rock salt for her talking
44:27
Speaker 15: about being able to import that from Canada and stuff.
44:31
Speaker 15: But I think that And will voters sort of punish
44:34
Speaker 15: her for some of her votes, particularly on the Supreme
44:37
Speaker 15: Court now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned? I
44:39
Speaker 15: think it's a real question, but Collins very much remains
44:42
Speaker 15: in the fight.
44:44
Speaker 8: Really interesting, Jessica.
44:45
Speaker 2: The president is going to Texas in a little while.
44:47
Speaker 2: He's actually talking to reporters right now in the Oval
44:50
Speaker 2: Office with a couple of headlines. When asked about regrets
44:55
Speaker 2: about endorsing Ken Paxton, many analysts say if this was
44:58
Speaker 2: a John Cornyn nomination, we wouldn't even be talking about
45:02
Speaker 2: Texas right now.
45:02
Speaker 8: There wouldn't be time. No, no, he says. He's a
45:05
Speaker 8: great attorney general. No regrets at all.
45:09
Speaker 2: What's happening in Texas as the president makes his third
45:13
Speaker 2: appearance there now? And could it be enough to save
45:17
Speaker 2: the Paxton campaign?
45:19
Speaker 15: Paxton is the weakest Republican candidate that the party has. And,
45:22
Speaker 15: you know, we've seen that audio coming out, sort of
45:24
Speaker 15: drip drip of him blaming Trump, blaming the Iran war.
45:28
Speaker 13: And certainly all of those things are not helping him
45:31
Speaker 13: right now.
45:31
Speaker 15: But it's Ken Paxton's problems that he has these ethics issues,
45:35
Speaker 15: the impeachment issues.
45:36
Speaker 13: The affairs.
45:38
Speaker 15: All of this has just made him a very volatile
45:40
Speaker 15: nominee in which James Tallarico, who has been a very
45:43
Speaker 15: strong Democratic nominee, able to raise a lot of money,
45:46
Speaker 15: has been able to come in and pick up independent voters,
45:48
Speaker 15: Latino voters. and even some Republicans enough to make this
45:52
Speaker 15: a very close contest. The last close Senate race we
45:55
Speaker 15: saw in Texas wasn't close enough for Democrats with Beto.
45:58
Speaker 13: O'Rourke narrowly losing there.
46:01
Speaker 15: But even based on some micro data, some county data
46:04
Speaker 15: that I've seen and House data, Tallarica was outperforming where
46:08
Speaker 15: Beto was back in 2018. So I think this is
46:11
Speaker 15: a real race to watch. I think even Democrats I
46:14
Speaker 15: talked to, they can't wrap themselves around the fact that
46:16
Speaker 15: they might actually win Texas. But I just think Paxton
46:20
Speaker 15: is a polarizing enough of a nominee that this seat
46:23
Speaker 15: is very much in play and might even be tilting
46:26
Speaker 15: toward Tallarico right now.
46:27
Speaker 13: We've seen him consistently leading in polling.
46:30
Speaker 5: Just quickly, Jessica, we have 30 seconds left, but we
46:32
Speaker 5: made a lot of hay yesterday about the SLF moving
46:35
Speaker 5: money to South Carolina as an insurance policy for Darlene Graham.
46:39
Speaker 5: Is there a real chance she loses?
46:41
Speaker 15: We have the race rated likely Republicans, so we're watching.
46:44
Speaker 15: And I think that Graham, you know, she just replaced
46:46
Speaker 15: her brother on the ballot. I think she's sort of
46:47
Speaker 15: been an underwhelming candidate in some instances, according to my sources.
46:51
Speaker 15: So I think that just the lean of the state
46:53
Speaker 15: will help win out. But it's certainly the fact that
46:56
Speaker 15: Republicans are having to spend there is certainly noteworthy.
46:59
Speaker 5: Having to spend in a lot of places they probably
47:02
Speaker 5: didn't plan to at the start of this cycle. Jessica Taylor,
47:05
Speaker 5: Senate and governor's editor at the Cook Political Report. Always
47:08
Speaker 5: great to have you. I would imagine we'll be talking
47:10
Speaker 5: to her a bit more in the 27 days to
47:12
Speaker 5: come because, yes, less than four weeks out, Joe, until
47:15
Speaker 5: it's midterm.
47:15
Speaker 2: She's a sage. Thank you, Jessica. And all of our
47:18
Speaker 2: voices this hour. Thanks for listening to the Balance of
47:22
Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already. Apple,
47:26
Speaker 2: Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can
47:29
Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime
47:33
Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg.com.