Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 255 - 4/11/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 255 of the All Systems Go sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:29I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:38Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
- 0:41end. The weekend is upon us and we
- 0:43are locked and loaded with a big Friday of sweats here on tap.
- 0:46Guys, I have a 5 pack of games I'm excited to share with you,
- 0:49including four Major League Baseball plays.
- 0:52Also have a play in the NBAI noticed today is a massive NBA
- 0:56split. I think every every team almost,
- 0:59it's got to be. There's 15 games today, pretty
- 1:01much everyone's playing today. So there's one game in
- 1:03particular where I saw a total that fell a bit and I said we
- 1:07should maybe buy low and play this over.
- 1:08So I'll give you that one as well.
- 1:10And then it's been a while, it's been a minute, but we're going
- 1:13to get back to the UFC biting in the arena last few weeks, really
- 1:18haven't seen a ton of system matches.
- 1:19And I got my e-mail from my buddy John Ewing from Bet MGM
- 1:22earlier today. And I noticed one fighter or
- 1:25biter who is checking off literally every box.
- 1:28Younger, taller, longer reach line move, sharp bet split and
- 1:32wait until we get into the tail of the tape.
- 1:34Some massive height and reach advantages.
- 1:36So if you're looking to get back into the Octagon, I got to play
- 1:39for you guys this weekend. So A5 pack overall, four Major
- 1:43League Baseball, one NBA, and a UFC bet for tomorrow.
- 1:47Now looking back to her last night guys, after a horrific oh
- 1:50and five the other night. A little bit of a bounce back
- 1:52claw on our way back. Baby steps. 2 and 1 + 0.67
- 1:57units. I had a couple nice winners with
- 1:58our totals. Got the Red Sox under 9.
- 2:01That one got a little dicey because it was like basically a
- 2:04nothing, nothing or one one game into like the 6th or 7th inning,
- 2:07then went into extras. You always get scared when
- 2:10you're on an under and extra innings because even if you're
- 2:12well below the total, I mean you get one inning where they score
- 2:162 and you come back and score 2. Like that can sink your under.
- 2:19But luckily Red Sox Tribble to walk it off on a little little
- 2:21squibber little dribbler by Trevor Story, which was good for
- 2:24the Sox over 85 1/2 win total as well.
- 2:28And then also got the Atlanta Braves and Phillies under 7 1/2.
- 2:31I was loving that game because that was another like deadbeat
- 2:34under one, one game into the 7th and then the skies open up.
- 2:38They pull out the tarp, the game gets delayed like 2 hours.
- 2:41They pick it back up. I think it like 11:30 at night.
- 2:44Luckily they played the game and luckily that game stayed under.
- 2:47I was a four to two game. Ozuna hit a walk off Homer.
- 2:51And anytime you're looking at rain delays, you know, always
- 2:53check your house rules because some you know, some books will
- 2:56pay out the side but not the total or the money line but not
- 2:59the the run line. You got to double check and make
- 3:01sure your book you know, house rules and situations like that.
- 3:05Only loser was the Brewers. Brewers couldn't get it done at
- 3:08the Rockies, Their relief pitcher pie amps got lit up
- 3:12there late. So either way, 2 and 1 + 0.67
- 3:15units, we'll take it. We'll claw back the hole we dug
- 3:18the other night, and we'll see if we can finish off the week on
- 3:21a hot note. So with that being said, as
- 3:24always guys, let's get right back to it.
- 3:25Do what we love to do, monitor the market, identify sharp bet
- 3:29splits and line moves and hopefully, hopefully post some
- 3:32winners. So I want to start off with
- 3:34Major League Baseball, huge slate today, 15 games overall.
- 3:38I love day games, but I kind of like it when you have all, you
- 3:40know, late games. That way the, you know, the
- 3:43public can have their say later on.
- 3:44We can monitor the the splits all day.
- 3:46Just kind of gives you a lot of a lot of options depending on
- 3:49what you're going to do for that particular night.
- 3:51So first game that jumped out to me, let's go to Steinbrenner
- 3:55Field, not the Yankees, but the Tampa Bay Rays.
- 3:57That's where they're playing this year. 7 O 5:00 PM Eastern
- 4:00Time, Braves and the Rays. Let's set the stage.
- 4:03Talk some line movement system matches and I'll give you my
- 4:06play for this one. So going into it, we got the
- 4:08Braves 3:00 and 9:00. Just took two or three though
- 4:10against the fills they won last night 4 to 2 and extra innings
- 4:14as a -, 135 home favorite. Thank God they went under 7 1/2.
- 4:18On the other hand, the Rays 5:00 and 7:00, they have dropped two
- 4:21or three against the Angels. Just fell 11 to 1 yesterday as a
- 4:25-, 120 home favorite. You may have played the Angels
- 4:27there. I wrote about that in the sharp
- 4:29report. I know, I know.
- 4:30My guy kW caught nuts are Cash Bigley with the Angels.
- 4:33So pitching match up here for today.
- 4:35In this interleague series opener, we have the Braves going
- 4:38with the righty Bryce Elder, he's O&O 6.75 ERA.
- 4:42Rays meanwhile, send out the righty Taj Bradley.
- 4:45He's one and O 4.91 ERA. So what have we seen across the
- 4:49market here? Well, this game open as a very
- 4:52short favorite for Tampa Bay just around -110 Braves around
- 4:56even money plus 100. And the public really doesn't
- 4:58know what to do. You know, the Braves probably
- 5:01are the team they would lean toward, just bigger name team.
- 5:03They've had, you know, been to the playoffs here for quite a
- 5:05few years in a row. You know, Ray's obviously small
- 5:08market club and been down in the last couple years.
- 5:11And then of course the Braves record is really bad but the
- 5:14public doesn't want to do. The Braves are probably the
- 5:16better team but it's a pick em game.
- 5:17They're struggling, they're on the road.
- 5:19Ticket split is basically 5050 right down the middle at
- 5:22DraftKings. So what we always talk about
- 5:245050 line movement really should be non existent.
- 5:28No need to adjust the the spread or the total or the money line.
- 5:31Regardless of the bet type, as long as the action is right down
- 5:33the middle, there's no incentive to move it up or down because
- 5:36you got split money. Theoretically, however, even
- 5:39though it's a 5050 bet split, this line has shot up toward
- 5:43Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay open -110 they're up
- 5:46to -135 -, 140 now at this point.
- 5:49So, so really sharp 5050 line move in favor of the Rays.
- 5:53Technically, they're getting 52% of money line bets at
- 5:56DraftKings, but 66% of money line dollars.
- 6:00So again, split public, but 2/3 of heavy betting there.
- 6:03In terms of the dollars sharper wagers on Tampa Bay.
- 6:06We also have Tampa matching quite a few betting systems home
- 6:09favorites this year, 83 and 4366 percent 10% ROI home favorites
- 6:15off a loss the bounce back spot 29 and 1566 percent 12% ROI.
- 6:21Interleague home favorites 35 and 1471 percent, 21% ROI and
- 6:27then non division favorites with steam $0.10 or more in their
- 6:30direction 37 and 1966% eleven percent ROI.
- 6:35So a lot of matches here lighting up on the rays.
- 6:38Now the Rays didn't hit yesterday, but they do have the
- 6:40better bats overall compared to the Braves.
- 6:42They're hitting two 5243 runs scored.
- 6:45Braves hitting 218, only 38 runs scored.
- 6:48Tampa also five and four at home.
- 6:50I put home in quotation marks because the Trop got ripped up
- 6:54in the hurricane. So they're playing on a AAA
- 6:56stadium here, Atlanta, though, O and seven on the road.
- 6:59So hopefully that continues. Also a little angle here.
- 7:02I'm I'm wondering, you know, what's all the steam toward
- 7:04Tampa Bay? And I was watching the Braves
- 7:07game last night, sweating that under and at the very end it was
- 7:11like midnight. One of the announcers said
- 7:13something like, man, the the Tampa Bay Rays are cozy in their
- 7:17beds in Atlanta. You know, had to go through a a
- 7:19long rain delay and played past midnight and you know, the Rays
- 7:23were at home, no travel, slept in their own beds.
- 7:25Atlanta rain delay, late night travel.
- 7:28Now they got to go to Tampa. So you know, Atlanta to Florida
- 7:31is not that long of a trip, but kind of that rain delay.
- 7:34Maybe that's screwed up the Atlanta body clock and maybe
- 7:37they're kind of up against it here today.
- 7:39Maybe that's a reason. Also did see some over money
- 7:42total open 8 totally up to 9. I think you kind of missed the
- 7:45good number there. You wanted at least 8 1/2 or
- 7:47less. But I did notice 45% bet 60%
- 7:50dollars on the over and is going to be a nice night in in for
- 7:55Tampa's home stadium. Mid 70s, ten mile per hour,
- 7:58winds blowing out to right center.
- 8:00But overall guys basically a very short Tampa opener.
- 8:03Now we've got them steamed up to like -140 Also doesn't hurt our
- 8:07friends at Juice Reel have an 18% sharp mush edge on Tampa
- 8:11Bay. So 18% more of the sharper
- 8:14winning betters who have synced up their sports books in Juice
- 8:17Reel, which you should do too, are going Tampa as opposed to
- 8:20the less winning betters, if I can put it nicely, who are
- 8:23leaning more toward the Braves. So add it all up.
- 8:26Big sharps team. Maybe a tough schedule turn
- 8:28around for the Braves. I got Tampa Bay, I got them at
- 8:31-136 at FanDuel. Next one for you, the G men and
- 8:37the Bronx Bombers 7 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time.
- 8:39First pitch match up here, of course between the Giants and
- 8:43the New York Yankees. First thing I noticed about this
- 8:46one is we've got some line movement which jumped out to me
- 8:50and quite a few betting system matches as well.
- 8:52So let's set the stage talk this one.
- 8:54We have the giants coming in nine and three.
- 8:57The Giants just avoided A sweep lost the don't remind me losing
- 9:01those first two against since he but did come back and isn't
- 9:04baseball funny you score no runs.
- 9:06I play it twice then I don't play you and they hit a Grand
- 9:08Slam. I think or no it was a walk off
- 9:11Ystromsky 8 to 6 in extra innings to win yesterday that
- 9:14that's baseball for you. But the Yankees 7:00 and 5:00.
- 9:18They also avoided the sweep lost the first two at Detroit and
- 9:20then won four to three a couple days ago.
- 9:23So starting pitcher pitching match up here we have Robbie
- 9:26Ray, the lefty going for the G men.
- 9:28He's 2 and O 3.18 ERA. He'll be opposed by Marcus
- 9:32Stroman, O&O 7.27 ERA. What are we seeing across the
- 9:36market? Well, similar to that Tampa
- 9:38game, kind of a short opener here for the Yankees.
- 9:41New York open as low as -110 -, 115.
- 9:45Now we're seeing the Yankees all the way up to -130 so about, you
- 9:49know, 10:15 almost $0.20 steam move in favor of the Bronx
- 9:53Bombers tells me the bigger, sharper wagers are in their
- 9:55favor. And I have the most.
- 9:57I have 9 system matches. I don't know if I'll rattle them
- 10:00all off, but huge system match game here for me with the
- 10:03Yankees. Let's talk about them all.
- 10:06Non division favorite -135 or less. 55% this year, 56 percent,
- 10:113% ROI Since 2019, non division favorite was Steam $0.10 or
- 10:16more, 37 and 19 this year, 66%. Eleven percent ROI.
- 10:21Non division home favorite off a win 27 and 682 percent. 34% ROI.
- 10:27That's been really the top system so far.
- 10:29Interleague favored off a win. 30 and 1075 percent, 27% ROI.
- 10:35Interleague home favorite who made the postseason the previous
- 10:37year 17 and 577%, 30% ROI. Home favorites, 66 percent, 10%
- 10:44ROI. Interleague home favorites 71
- 10:47percent, 21% ROI. And this one is crazy.
- 10:51And again, it's I had to double check it and it's true, but both
- 10:55had the day off the previous day.
- 10:57Take the favorite. This system match is 19 and two
- 11:01this year 91%. So it tells me we got some some
- 11:06value here. Hopefully on the Yankees.
- 11:08Yankees would also be a favorite.
- 11:09Low total, so favored -130 total in this one is 8.
- 11:13I think it did fall 8 1/2 down to 8.
- 11:15Better offense. 26526 homers, 82 runs scored.
- 11:20G men are hitting 2/28/14 homers, 57 runs scored.
- 11:24Yankees are hitting 278 at home, 9th best in baseball.
- 11:28Giants are hitting 2O2 on the road.
- 11:30That ranks 22nd. Yankees against a lefty today.
- 11:33Robbie Ray hitting 282 against southpaws, second best in
- 11:37baseball. G men are hitting 231 against
- 11:39righties. That ranks 19th.
- 11:41So good steam, tons of system matches again, I don't know
- 11:45remember the last time I saw system matches 9 a total of nine
- 11:48on one team. But I got to play the Yankees
- 11:51here. I'm going to follow that sharp
- 11:52steam can be the Bronx Bombers. I got them at -130 next one for
- 11:57you, Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins.
- 12:01Probably didn't expect this one here, but jumped out to me as a
- 12:05as a really sharp line move as well.
- 12:07So let's set the stage. 7:10 PM Eastern Time first pitch.
- 12:10We got the Nats coming in five and seven.
- 12:13Just took two or three against the Dodgers.
- 12:15Didn't get the sweep though. They lost that finale 6 to 5 as
- 12:18a minus as a + 165 home dog. You know all the Marlins 6 and
- 12:22six on the year. They just dropped two or three
- 12:24against the Mets avoided the sweep with A5 nothing win in the
- 12:27series finale. Their plus 175 Rd. dog in that
- 12:31one. So tonight's series opener, we
- 12:33got the Nats going with the lefty Mitchell Parker.
- 12:35He's 2 and 0.73 ERA. Marlins, meanwhile, are going to
- 12:39go with the righty Edward Cabrera.
- 12:41He's making his first start, his debut in 2025.
- 12:44Last year he was four and eight with a 4.95 ERA.
- 12:48So what are we seeing across the market here?
- 12:50Well, this came up with Washington around a -, 125 Rd.
- 12:54favorite, Miami around a + 105 home dog.
- 12:57And the public is all over the Nats again, slightly better
- 13:00record. I think they're just probably
- 13:02biased against the Marlins, you know, small payroll, you
- 13:04probably can't name a single player on their team anymore.
- 13:07However, even though you're getting 75% of money line bets
- 13:11on Washington, this line is dropping toward Miami.
- 13:14Washington opened -125 they're down to -115 some shops even
- 13:19down to -110 we're basically seeing this game turn into a
- 13:22pick em almost to pick em play after opening favorite here for
- 13:26Washington. And that's normal because
- 13:28everyone's playing Washington, yet the lines dropping toward
- 13:31Miami. So tells me we got some smart
- 13:33money here on the Miami Marlins. They're only getting 25% bets,
- 13:37but 44% dollars at DraftKings. So little bit low bets, higher
- 13:41dollars there. They do have value as a
- 13:43divisional dog, built in familiarity, levelling the
- 13:45playing field, benefiting the team, getting some plus money.
- 13:49And I did notice in the Juice Real app, a 17% sharp mush edge
- 13:54in favor of Miami. So everyone's playing
- 13:56Washington, but the sign keeps dropping toward Miami.
- 13:59It reminds me a little bit of the Angels yesterday where that
- 14:02line kept dropping in their favor.
- 14:03So I'm going to take a shot of Miami.
- 14:05First time I played them this year, but I was able able to get
- 14:08-1 O 5. I believe that was FanDuel or
- 14:11ESPN bet pretty widely available here.
- 14:14Let's see if we can get the the the nameless Marlins again, who
- 14:17you can't name a single player hopefully coming through here
- 14:20tonight. I'm on the fish at -1 O five
- 14:24last MLB game of the night. Let's go to Minnesota Detroit
- 14:29Tigers at the Minnesota Twins 8:10 PM Eastern Time.
- 14:32First pitch Tigers come in seven and five.
- 14:35Just took two or three against the Yankees.
- 14:37Didn't get the sweep though. Lost four to three as a + 125
- 14:40dog in the finale. Meanwhile, the Twins 4:00 and
- 14:439:00. They owe us a win because I
- 14:45remember I played them once before and they had a 2 nothing
- 14:47lead against the Astros and then blew it.
- 14:49But they're 4:00 and 9:00 on the year.
- 14:50Just dropped three or four against the Royals.
- 14:52They lost the series finale 3 to 2 as a plus one O 5 Rd. dog.
- 14:56So pitching match up here we have the tigers going with the
- 14:59ready Reese Olson. He's one in one five point O 6
- 15:02ERA. Twins meanwhile are going to go
- 15:04with the ready David Festa. He's making his 2025 debut.
- 15:08He went last year two and six with a 4.9 OERA.
- 15:12So have you seen across the market here?
- 15:14Will this game open Minnesota very short -110 home favorite
- 15:17Detroit around a + 100 Rd. dog. And the public says the wrong
- 15:22team is favored. Yeah, Detroit better record.
- 15:24How do you not take Detroit here And the, and the, you know,
- 15:27basically the, the coin flip price.
- 15:29However, even though you're getting 74% of money line bets
- 15:33on the Tigers, the line has moved further toward Minnesota.
- 15:37Minnesota -110 now up to -120 So why is line going toward
- 15:41Minnesota if the public's all over Detroit again?
- 15:45Kind of feels a little bit like like that.
- 15:47I guess that that Miami game Republics on the road team lines
- 15:51going to the home team. If you look at Minnesota here
- 15:54and a fade the trendy dog play, they're matching quite a few
- 15:56systems. The home favorites 66 percent,
- 15:5910% ROI this year. Home favorites off a loss 66
- 16:02percent, 12% ROI. You do have some correlative
- 16:05betting value. This totals 8.
- 16:07It's really juice to the under. Looks like there's some under
- 16:09money here, maybe toward a lower scoring game That's good for the
- 16:12favorite few amount of expected run scored more likely to come
- 16:15from quote UN quote that better team.
- 16:18Also, you have Minnesota with a very notable sharp mush edge in
- 16:21the Juice Reel app. You are getting a 24% sharp mush
- 16:25edge on Minnesota. Basically 24% more of the
- 16:28sharper winning betters are on the Twins as opposed to the
- 16:31profit division betters who are leaning more toward Detroit.
- 16:34So basically, you know -110 up to -120 sharp reverse line move.
- 16:40Seeing if we can get the Minnesota Twinkies to show up
- 16:43tonight for us. I'm on Minnesota at -120 so
- 16:47Ray's Yankees, Marlins in Minnesota.
- 16:50Can we get at least two of those?
- 16:52And hopefully, hopefully you know bode well in a baseball
- 16:55night here tonight. Next, let's not forget about the
- 16:58NBA again. I couldn't believe everyone's
- 17:00playing tonight. It feels like 15 games overall.
- 17:02And there's one game that jumped out to me as a buy low
- 17:06opportunity. It is the heat, Miami Heat
- 17:09visiting the New Orleans Pelicans.
- 17:11So it's so it's an 8:00 game here tonight.
- 17:14Now going in going into it, we got the heat 36 and 44.
- 17:17They've lost three of their last four.
- 17:19Pelicans are 21 and 59. I see a lot of LS in their
- 17:23schedule. Let's see how many games they've
- 17:24lost in a row. Jesus, 12345 in a row and like I
- 17:31don't even know 15 of their last 20.
- 17:33So both teams are struggling. It's a big spread here.
- 17:35The heat opened -11 1/2. Throw it up to -15 1/2.
- 17:39Looks like the Pelicans might be sitting a few guys.
- 17:42I'm not going to touch the spread, but I'm going to buy low
- 17:45and play this over. This jumped out to me a little
- 17:48bit. First thing I noticed is it did
- 17:50fall. It opened around 2:16 even 216
- 17:531/2. It's all the way now down to
- 17:55214. You may even find a 213 1/2 / -?
- 18:00115 at ESPN. Bet that's the number that I
- 18:02got. My first thought is OK, we can
- 18:04buy low and play the over. Then I noticed a bunch of system
- 18:07matches on this over non conference overs this year.
- 18:11Again, it's a grinder system. It's got a lot of matches.
- 18:14It's basically isolating, lack of familiarity.
- 18:17Don't know how to match up defensively.
- 18:18Typically that benefits offense that non conference overmatch is
- 18:22240 and two O 2 this year, 54 percent, 4% ROI.
- 18:27So not bad. But the one that I really liked,
- 18:30which we played this, I don't know a few weeks ago is when you
- 18:33have a big home dog play the over.
- 18:36Now the thought process here is if you're a big home dog and
- 18:39you're down by 1520 points in the fourth quarter, instead of
- 18:43packing it in, you're probably going to try to keep scoring
- 18:46just because you're at home. You want to impress the home
- 18:48crowd. You're not just going to try to
- 18:49get out of there even put you put in the scrub sometimes if
- 18:52you're down and maybe they're excited to Jack up some shots
- 18:55and hopefully make some make some some shots.
- 18:59But the big dog, big home dog go over system.
- 19:02So if you're a home dog getting 11 or more, the over is 37 and
- 19:0625 in these games, 60% fourteen percent ROI.
- 19:11So that also matches with that heat Pelicans over.
- 19:15I was also looking at defensive efficiency.
- 19:17The Pelicans 28th in the NBA, they really have struggled on
- 19:22defense. Their last few games.
- 19:24They lost 136 to one, 11119 to 114, one eleven, 107-120-4108.
- 19:31I mean, they're routinely giving up, you know, 120 or more a
- 19:34night in a very bad defensive team.
- 19:37And then also, you know, these overs in in the month of March
- 19:41and going into April, they're now 169 and one 4155% with a 4%
- 19:47ROI. So I'm going to take a shot here
- 19:49on the over, try to get over 213 1/2.
- 19:53That's the number that I got at ESPN bet, but a bit of a Bilo
- 19:56over with a bunch of system matches.
- 19:58So let's see if we can get some points in quite arguably A
- 20:01meaningless game. Heat Pelicans.
- 20:04So heat Pelicans over 213 1/2. Now looking toward the weekend.
- 20:09How about a little bit of biting in the arena?
- 20:12I'm going to get back to the Octagon.
- 20:14It's been a minute here. I do love betting UFC.
- 20:17There's just something crazy about, you know, the fact that
- 20:19your sweat could literally win or lose at almost any second.
- 20:24You can get knocked out, you can get choked out, you can choke
- 20:26the other guy out. That's what makes it such a
- 20:28crazy, crazy sweat. But I landed on one point here
- 20:34that checked off literally every box.
- 20:36So let's focus on the featherweight matchup, UFC 314
- 20:40between Dan Egay and Sean Woodson.
- 20:44So let's start with the e-mail that I always get every Friday
- 20:47from my buddy John Ewing giving us the entire card with bets and
- 20:51dollars in line movement for every bout.
- 20:54The first thing I noticed is that Shawn Woodson looks really
- 20:58good in terms of the the bet splits he opened at -125 short
- 21:03favorite. He's up to as high as -185 S big
- 21:06steam in his favor. He's only getting 33% of money
- 21:11line bets here, but he's getting 69% of money line dollars.
- 21:15So 1/3 of tickets, 2/3 of money, and a big move in his favor.
- 21:19Then we get to the tail of the tape.
- 21:21He's 32 years old, EJ is 33 years old.
- 21:24So nothing crazy but one year advantage.
- 21:27But listen to this. Shawn Woodson is 6 foot 2D and
- 21:31EJ is 5 foot 6. I don't know about you, but if
- 21:34I'm in a back alley, I'd rather fight A56 guy than a six two
- 21:38guy. So a huge height advantage for
- 21:41Woodson, huge reach advantage, 78 inch reach versus 71 inch
- 21:46reach for Egay. Significant strikes per minute
- 21:48dishing out punishment. Woodson 5.7 versus Egay 3.7.
- 21:54And also Woodson comes in pretty hot since he entered the UFC in
- 21:582019, he's 7 one and one. Since Egay entered the UFC in
- 22:022018, he's 10:00 and 8:00. But when I saw kind of the tail
- 22:06of the tape with the betting market lining up so nicely,
- 22:10again, remember our model, younger, taller, longer reach,
- 22:12line move, low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
- 22:15You're lighting up every single box there in favor of Shawn
- 22:18Woodson. So of course, you know, once you
- 22:21find a system match, then I got to go find the book giving us
- 22:23the best number at ESPN. Benton Bedham GM Woodson is -185
- 22:28at Caesars he's -180 but at FanDuel he's -176 So I played
- 22:34Shawn Woodson hopefully to to win this point at -176 at
- 22:39FanDuel. Let's go Shawn Woodson.
- 22:42So that about does it for episode 255 of the All Systems
- 22:46Go Sports Betting pod on a big Friday as we steam into the
- 22:49weekend. As always, this is the part of
- 22:51the pod where we wrap things up. And I start first by saying
- 22:54thank you. Thank you for taking the time
- 22:56out of your day to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and
- 22:59sweat some sharp betting breakdowns of us.
- 23:01Means so much to me that you know, you got busy lives, but
- 23:04you find a way to TuneIn. I think it's a testament to the
- 23:07the approach to betting and really the community we've we've
- 23:11kind of created here, which is great.
- 23:13But anyway, if you do enjoy the pod and you want to make my day,
- 23:16let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in.
- 23:18Could you please do something very simple, very easy and it's
- 23:21free. It cost you nothing.
- 23:23Could you give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or
- 23:26iTunes? It would go a long way to
- 23:28helping us to continue to grow the pod.
- 23:31If you want to leave a nice comment in the review section or
- 23:35maybe you want to click the follow button, that way you get
- 23:37alerted as soon as it drops each day, that would also be very
- 23:40much appreciated. Next, if you enjoy this style of
- 23:45betting breakdown, win, lose or draw, you know that we're
- 23:47betting games based on data, based on our head and not our
- 23:50heart. This style has appealed to you
- 23:52and you want to learn more about data-driven betting.
- 23:54Or you have someone in your life who could use a few tips and
- 23:57focus on data and less on their emotions and their bias and
- 24:00their favoritism. Well, you know what you should
- 24:02do. You should go to Amazon.com and
- 24:04type in the everything guide to sports betting.
- 24:07It's my first book I ever wrote. Very proud of it.
- 24:09But it really teaches the data-driven blueprint.
- 24:12How to identify sharp action, how to go contrarian, how to
- 24:15read line movement again, system matches and bankroll management,
- 24:19how to place a bet in person or online.
- 24:21It's really just covers you for everything, provides that
- 24:23data-driven blueprint. I would also love it if you
- 24:26could find a way to pre-order a copy of my new book.
- 24:30Same thing, go to Amazon.com but now type in.
- 24:32The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook comes out August 12th.
- 24:36Cannot wait. But if you want to help me to
- 24:39continue to generate the buzz, pre-order a copy.
- 24:42You would mean a ton to me and I think you're going to enjoy it.
- 24:45I'm very proud of it. I've been working on it for over
- 24:47three years at this point so I'm ready for it to drop.
- 24:50But grab a copy of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or the
- 24:53Everything Guide to Sports Betting and bring him to the
- 24:56book. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
- 24:58ale or we'll get some nachos and sweat some games together next.
- 25:01Have you downloaded Rhythm or Juice Reel yet?
- 25:03Well if you haven't, what are you waiting for?
- 25:05Go to the App Store or Google Play.
- 25:07However you get your apps, type in Rhythm RITHMM.
- 25:12Give it a shot with a 7 day free trial.
- 25:14Rhythm is great for their AI backed models for best bets and
- 25:18player props for a spread money line in total for all the major
- 25:21sports. We got baseball live now, which
- 25:23is great if you like betting MLB props, player props, you know
- 25:26rhythms got you covered. And then of course Juice Reel.
- 25:29I love juice reel. You can find the all systems go
- 25:31best bet picks on juice Reel officially as I got my books
- 25:35synced up to juice Reel. As soon as I put in a play, it
- 25:37goes right to Juice Reel and you can follow these plays for $4.99
- 25:42a week. Again, I consider the pod.
- 25:45I'm like a bartender, a server, a podcast host.
- 25:47It's free if you like the if you like or appreciate the insights,
- 25:52tip me tip me send me a tip by putting 5 bucks in the tip jar
- 25:57for 499 getting those plays at at Juice Reel.
- 26:00You can also get the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
- 26:02sharp mush plays, the arbitrage plays.
- 26:05Shop for the best line futures. Juice Reel has got you covered
- 26:07with all different kinds of sports betting tips.
- 26:11So download Juice Reel and download rhythm.
- 26:12Give them five stars in the App Store.
- 26:15Next, do you have a live odds page?
- 26:18If you don't, what are you doing?
- 26:19You need one. I don't know how you're betting
- 26:20on sports without knowing all the games available to you that
- 26:23day as well as all the lines, what they open that how they
- 26:27moved, shopping for the best line, finding the best price,
- 26:31pulling up the line history. You got to have a live odds page
- 26:33if you're betting on sports. So if you don't have one or you
- 26:36have one and maybe it's free or delayed or doesn't have a lot of
- 26:39good books or maybe you have one and it's really expensive, you
- 26:43should try switching to odds logic.
- 26:45I partner with odds logic. I think they have a great,
- 26:47clean, crisp interface. You can give it a shot with a 70
- 26:50free trial and 50% off your first month just by going to
- 26:54this particular link, odds logic.com/josh 123.
- 27:00You'll be locked and loaded and tweet me.
- 27:03Let me know what you think of it because I'm, I'm a big fan of
- 27:05odds logic, but that about does it for episode 255 of the ASG
- 27:09pod. See if we can finish off the
- 27:11week on a hot note. As always, guys, I'm gonna leave
- 27:13you with a couple things. One, whether I see you at the
- 27:16Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
- 27:19Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
- 27:21Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
- 27:24Casino, or MGM Springfield or the Nash in Nashville, New
- 27:27Hampshire, in my neck of the woods.
- 27:29Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
- 27:31down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
- 27:33runners where the lowest use possible throughout the South
- 27:35Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
- 27:37plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when they catch a
- 27:40big ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me.
- 27:43You're going to show me a Red Sox under 9 and Atlanta, Philly
- 27:47under 7 1/2. Guess what?
- 27:49First one's on me, next one's on you.
- 27:50And we'll, we'll go to what is it called?
- 27:53The burger bar. What?
- 27:54What's that burger place at Circa?
- 27:56It's delicious. We'll, we'll get a burger and
- 27:58we'll sweat some games together. How's that sound?
- 28:00As always, guys, Two and one, one and two, three and OO and
- 28:04three again. Grinding, as always, stick to
- 28:07the model, stick to the blueprint.
- 28:08Never get too high, never get too low.
- 28:10Sports betting ain't easy. Again, I think the biggest
- 28:13misconception with new batters coming into betting, it's really
- 28:17not their fault, but you expect it to be easy, expect to win
- 28:21again. Sports betting is really hard.
- 28:22You got to overcome the juice, overcome razor sharp lines,
- 28:26overcome, you know, bad breaks and the guys on the field not
- 28:29coming through for us making mistakes.
- 28:32But we love it and we want to continue to grind and get better
- 28:34at it. And I know that if we can bet
- 28:36games with our head and not our heart against the public, with
- 28:39the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
- 28:42CLV. If we can do that, we're going
- 28:44to be successful sports betters. So have a great Friday,
- 28:47everybody have an even better weekend.
- 28:49Reminder, no pods on the weekend, but you can read the
- 28:51sharp reports that I write for visen.com.
- 28:54It'll be baseball for Saturday and Sunday.
- 28:56You can always find that from my Twitter account at Josh under
- 28:59score insights. But good luck, everyone, have a
- 29:02great weekend. And I'll see you back on Monday
- 29:04for episode 256 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
- 29:08podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
- 29:12your weekend.