Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 8

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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 8 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I am
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: as always by my calls, my companion, my compadre, my BFF,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: professional better So I'm in Hunter earro So I'm.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: In Hello Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Listen? I'm a professional?
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: You are?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I have not spoken since I fell asleep watching the
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Bulls get blown out by the New Orleans Pelicans last night,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: so I'm ready to roll. I hope it's not too
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: painful for our listeners. Today's o NFL Week eight Best
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Bets episode, where Simon and I narrow down our five
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: picks and the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Pickum contest presented by BET three six five. Sign up
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: now with Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We will also
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: get into the foxhol give our Tommy John Big Balls
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: bet of the week, discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: money Line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and so
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: much more. Bets are rolling in lines are moving, decisions
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Coward likes to say, because there's a sea of money
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: by Bet three six five and now new Bet three
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorite,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Whatever the moment. It's an ever ordinary. A bet three
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: sixty five must be twenty one or older in president
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem called one
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: the season. We want to hear how the wise guys
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: The lines move based on our conversations. The pros feel
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: sharp calls.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Somebody said, maybe.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: What you do man?
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, let's run through it. I think the books and
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: the professionals think this is.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Going to be a bad week for the public.
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: That the public is about the walk into it after
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: getting fat for two straight weeks. Chad so off the
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: top of a game I love. I don't know if
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: Chad's come around yet. The Rams you love them? Are
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: you still?
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Well, I know listen, I know the wise guys are
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: all over it. I know it all over it. Everyone's
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: been talking about it. The plus three. I'll probably bet it.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: But I'm doing it because you're on it, and everyone's
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: saying I should be on it now everyone.
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that was my number one big call after our
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: show is just make sure people take the Rams.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: Listen to the show. So I'm sure we'll talk a
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: little bit more about that one.
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: So just run through it real quick. They love the Rams,
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: love the Browns. Another game that you know, we talked
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: a little bit about love the Jags obviously the Colts.
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: I've been shocked by this Colts line movement, have you?
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: I mean, I am shocked that this is down now
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: at five and a lot of books.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So well, I'm not because it was my exact decision
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: and I tend to move the lines.
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but it was just it's just crazy it moved
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: off the key number of six. So yeah, another game
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: will dobvise you dive more into if we're gonna take
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: down our contest Miami aside, We're not really on professionals
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: actually love that side. I'm on the opposite of this
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: one here. I like Atlanta a lot of product talk.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: Do you really like the Bucks in this bounce back spot?
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: Kind of a desperate team. I guess another game as
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: well that I'm a little decided on was the Bills
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: in Seahawks. Seems like a lot of the professionals love
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: the Bills. I guess I need to come around more
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: than a Mark Cooper is a big deal to them,
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: and that they have gotten healthier on defense, and this
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: actually is a nice spot.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: Evan had a piece in his article about, you know,
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: just the exact scenario of Josh Allen these kind of spots,
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: he's actually not too bad. So that's when I'm probably
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: not on the right side taking to the Seahawks, so
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: I kind of see their perspective on that one. Bears,
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: maybe I'll given check get the Bears in our contest,
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: the professional that we be, love Love the Bears in
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: this upcoming spot, and the last two Raiders. I don't
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: know if I've got Chad's full confidence in this Raiders pick,
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: but I still think at the ten ten and a
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: half in the contest, it's very tempting. And obviously the
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: last one we both like the Dallas Cowboys. We've both
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: seen them come down now from six and a half,
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: five and a half, four and a half now they're
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: down to four most books, so that lines are exactly
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: what I thought.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: It was gonna do. I think it should be three
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: It seems like that's exactly where it's heading for that
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: Sunday night matchup. So yeah, right now we're on the
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: right side of a lot of games that we really like,
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: and then a couple sides that, you know, maybe I
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: need to get a little more bullied to the other
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: side because I just I don't know it's hard for
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: me to really want to back, especially in Miami a
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: mis three and a half. So yeah, interesting perspective this
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: week from a lot of professionals.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: So betting against the public after a bad game. That's
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent since two thousand and five. There are
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: a couple scenarios in the in the games that we're
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: going to talk about that we'll cover that. But you
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: mentioned the public getting fat week seven, ten and four
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: against the spread, Week six ten three and one against
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: the spread. That does a bounce back after the public
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: had started in the first five weeks with its worst
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: start against the spread, meaning public is fifty one percent
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: or more of the bets on one side. It had
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: been the worst start for those games in our history
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: of tracking these games. The last two weeks twenty seven
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and one, so huge bounce back. Someone is due for
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: a regression right now. Either the public is still catching
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: up to get to even or it is time for
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the public to get slaughtered. We have learned a lot
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: this week trying to unpack our challenges. Specifically for the contest.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: We've been leaning heavy into these ugly dogs, these trend
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: picks that tend to go against the public. We may
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: still do that. At least now we know it's a weakness, right,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: so if we do it and we get caught, but
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: it's not our fault. It's really it's really just the numbers,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: not the ball and not bouncing our way Arizona plus
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: three and a half at Miami. Ah, I've heard the
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: same rumblings. The wise Guy's loving my Haami, Miami loving
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the return of two. They like the cards. They're like
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: betting against the cars traveling in this short week. For me, ultimately,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: this wasn't gonna make it like I bet the cards
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. I bet it because of
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the number. It wasn't because of anything else. I just
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: wanted to hook with Kyler, who, by the way, as
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: a road dog second best against the spread mark in
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: that spot since two thousand and three, according to Evan, Like,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: we're never going to get all the trends and mashups
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: to line up, but in this one, it doesn't feel
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: like we really have anything other than the number.
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I just I'll play it up on Miami, just
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: because I know these guys who are taken mihim here
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: pretty sharp, and you know they have their reasons, and
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: I think at three and a half. Arizona totally get it,
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: but at three I'll go with the Miami and they're
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: just how much worse can I get for this team?
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: Like this feels like this is it for them in
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: their season. That's why it feels a little bit like
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: two is rushing back here and that they know that
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: if they don't win this one, it's basically over right.
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're just there'd be too big of a
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: whole for them to get out of. So you're right,
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: I'm happy we're actually avoiding this game.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm not upset avoiding Atlanta minus two and
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: a half. It's a divisional game with road fave, not
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a spot we would historically love. But again this season
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: home dogs three nine and one thirty eight percent, right
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: past two seasons, home divisional dogs, home divisional dogs, No Godwin,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: no Mike Evans kirk off of a loss forty and
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: twenty six fifth best of two hundred and eighty quarterbacks
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: since two thousand and three. And unless you think we
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: can't back a road public fave starting in the twenty
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: three season until this past week, road public favorites sixty
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: two percent against the spread, something is going on in
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the past two years that we're going to have to
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: decide is is it a trend? Is it a lack
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: of parody? Like what is happening here that we're gonna
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: have to unpack? I know, wise guys like the Bucks,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I would be with you. I still like the Falcons.
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I still like the Falcons. But there's another routine
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: that we talked about the Bears. I had much rather
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: take where it's like, yes, that that game I could
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: see going a certain way, where this game we always
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: talk about this the NFC South, Sometimes you really never know, right,
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: Like this game could easily just be Tampa runs it
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: down Atlanta's throat and you know they never get a
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: going Atlanta, right, And.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: That's that's the fear here.
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: That to me is what I'm looking at, where it's
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: like there is a path for the Bucks. We're on
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: that other game. I just I don't know how the
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: Bears uncovered and I can easily see the Bears going
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: up right, I can see that once Daniels is officially
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: that I talked about, I think that get up three
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: and a half. So I think we'll get good line
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: value on that game. Where this game i'd be shocked
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: at this point because there's so much professional money coming
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: in on this buck side that this number ever gets
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: up to three, three and a half.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: All right, This next game Tennessee at Detroit, they got
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: down to ten and a half. I bet it at
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: ten and a half. It's back at eleven. It doesn't matter.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: If you have one ass cheek and three toes, I
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: will beat your rass.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: You said you had this power rated closer to fourteen.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Since we spoke, the Titans have basically admitted they're done.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: They've traded their best wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. They
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: traded one of their starting linebackers. Neither of those moves
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: will help them hold a first half lead, which they've
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: blown three times this year. They are still tied with
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Baltimore for giving up the second most second the most
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: second half points this year. Jared Goff thirty and ten
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: against the spread indoors the past four seasons, the Lions
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: seventy percent against the spread the past four seasons, best
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: stretch since nineteen eighty like credible it. We've put so
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: much emphasis on historical trends and not enough on player
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: coach matchup. I wanted this to be our big balls.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: You have overruled me because last week I got to
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: choose the Browns and it did not go well for us.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I would have taken the Browns
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: again this week, but in our history, we have never
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: taken that's not true and eleven point favorite as our
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: big balls never.
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: I can tell you a game I can remember off
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: the top of my head, and we used to be
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: able to pick Thursday night games in our contest. We
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: took the New England Patriots and Tom Brady as like
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: a I don't even know it might have been like
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: a thirteen point favorite on the road and he had
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: a last second touchdown for us to cover that number.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: So that's that's the number that just pops in my
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: head of like that was scarring for me.
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: I don't think we ever took a big favorite since
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: then because it was just we needed so much luck.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Where you're that is that is your superpower, a rain
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: man like ability to remember every single win and loss
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: and moments like that.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: We talked about this.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: Though this line's number to me fell too short, it
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: makes me feel good that it's coming back up because
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: it's like I couldn't believe there was groups coming in
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: and bet in this Tennessee side where it's like there's
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: so many other dogs I'd rather invest my money. And
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: I'm shocked that people are trying to move this line.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: And you're right now.
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: We're seeing up to eleven and a half too in
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: a lot of books. So that actually makes me feel
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: better because I'm with you. I bet at ten and
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: a half, bet at eleven. It's like, Okay, this number
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: should not be going down, that should be going up.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: And now it is.
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: Matchup wise, though, we love this matchup in so many
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: different ways.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: For Detroit.
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: We both said the only way they lose if they
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: beat themselves. They just have so many different ways that
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: beat you offensively. We know golf is due for a
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: letdown week. Maybe they're looking ahead to next week right
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: when they're playing Green Bay, and that could be another
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: reason they don't, you know, put it all together here.
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: But my model likes this. I like this, Chad likes this.
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: It feels like it's unavoidable.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: We're gonna have this. Lions in our contest.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Huh. So I did do a little free show sneak
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: peek at the lines in the contest. Lions were eleven
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be fine with that because that's that's a
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: dead number. Honestly.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting because there were other ones that.
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: Of course they're gonna win this game twenty one to ten,
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: and we'll be like, god damn it.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: And like, look like we we've talked about the Jags,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: We've talked about the Bears, We've talked about the Colts.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Like there's a lot of lines that have moved aggressively
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: against us since we first started talking about them, even
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. So I think it's going to be challenging.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Eleven and a half is a tough one, like we
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: rarely have put that in the contest. But you know,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we're on the same page at least. I thought,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: like this morning when we were talking about the Lions
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: and I was all in on it and you were hesitant,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: I thought, it's because you just didn't like the game.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: So I don't think it takes balls. I'll be honest
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: like this, I got no reservation taking this one. Why not.
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: They've been good to us this year, and like we
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: just said, this to me, doesn't feel like the spot
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: they let us down. I think it's next week that
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: we see Detroit kind of wavering.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, then guess what It's time Simon for
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: our big ball bet of the Week, presented by Tommy John.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: the greatest. I pulled back a little bit. Yes, I
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: didn't want to.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: God, we're still another half the show to do, you know, I.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Didn't want to blow it out. Yeah, all right, we're
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Look, the Jags were at
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: four and a half, got down to four. It's still
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: at four at three six five, but it's three and
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: a half in a lot of places. We were tempted
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: by Green Bay, and you got a rare Sunday night
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: sharp call saying we were on the wrong side. I
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: don't think that has ever happened, rain Man. You can
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: tell me if I'm wrong.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, guys love talking shit, so of course.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: No professional has ever called you to wave you off.
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: After multiple That was the more surprising part. It was
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: a bunch of guys, right, That was what was crazy.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: So what gives here.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: A lot?
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: I think we talked about matchup wise, this isn't that
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: beat of a matcher for the Jaguars. Same thing with
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: that Rams matchup against the Rams, like surprisingly good matchup
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: for two teams that people perceive is bad and that
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: have had struggles this season, and both those teams have
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: suffered from just bad luck and you know, and a
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: couple things and bounce these teams ways. And I think
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: the same thing goes with the Jaguars here, and I
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: talked about Tank Digsby, I think is a big deal.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: This is a guy who can just take it up
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: the middle and you know, just thump guys. He's like
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: Marshawn Lynch type.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: And that's a weakness for green Bay, Like you can
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: run the ball in this team, and green Bay this
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: season has been very dependent defensively on turnovers. And I
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: know we have a guy walking in here in Trevor
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: Lawrence who does turn the ball over, but this year,
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: if you go back and look, he's also had some
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: really bad turnover luck that is regressed and should keep
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: on regressing. So I just like this matchup for them
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: and green Bay wise, you know, I know we can
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: get into the whole thing with the Florida Heat them
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: going down there and then obviously another look ahead spot
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: for them where they're playing.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Detroit next week. At a lot to like about this,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: and then there was a couple of trends.
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: I thought it was interesting from Evan about it's not
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: that big of a deal and skipping the bye week
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: coming back from England. Surprisingly like teams actually aren't that
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: bad in those type of scenarios. So we talked about
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: though the line to me, you should have been three
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: and a half. We're about to hit that breaking point
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: right of it flipping to being value on Green Bay,
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: So it's gonna be unfortunate if it is three and
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: a half of our contest. And that's what we get
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: for always waiting to pick on Thursday, because like I
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: got Cold six and a half on Tuesday in our contest,
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: and I got the Jaguars four and a half. So
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: we try to be honorable and wait here to put
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: our picks in. And it looks like we're gonna miss
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: the line value on two of these games. So I'm
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: opening it's still four and a half. I hope people
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: out there listening can still get the four because that's
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: what I bet. I have not touched anything Jags three
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: and a half, but I'd still do it. It's just
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: try to get the four. The four is such a
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: key number. I can't tell you any times I've been
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: saved by a push when it lands right on four.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely going to be at three and a
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: half in the contest, I think Jack I've checked, so
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a tough call for us. I'm not
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: loving the Jags at three and a half. I feel
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: like we're and we talked about this all the time.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: I'm want to scare you off, Chad, Well.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: How much does the line matter in the contest? Like
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: it isn't that often, right, but in a year in
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: which the final point totals have been so close, right,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: the variance, the percentage value of that half point just
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: becomes that much bigger. So I'm not loving the idea
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: of having the Jags at three and a half.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't worry about that because when we talked about it.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: So far this season, I think we've had three games
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: that were decided at two and a half where the
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: hook did matter on the two and a half, and
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: then we've had two games that decided by the six
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: and a half. So we got the five and a
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: half for the six and a half, we either covered
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: or we missed.
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: So I talked since two years ago.
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: I just don't think three is as port as it
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: used to be, so I wouldn't let it totally throw
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: them off, like I could still see us getting the
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: three and a half in there. I'm just talking strictly
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: people putting real money down here. It's like get the
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: four like that's long term. That's how you protect against
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: that type of bullshit.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: This is a luck game, you mentioned, is it luck? Yeah,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: it's the biggest luck game of the week, favoring the Jags.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: For a reminder, we do the luck rankings generally sixty
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread when there is a huge gap
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: in luck. Nick Giffin, Sean Kerner, or Billy Ward our
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: analytics team put this formula together. It separates the signals
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: from the noise and can predict regression when teams are
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: likely to have more luck going their way and the
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: bad luck not going their way or going against them anymore.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: The Packers are a great example of that, and you
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: just mentioned it. They've been feasting on turnovers, but if
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: you look at their underlying metrics, and you've said this
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: all year, their overall defense isn't that good, like amongst
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: the worst in the league and early down success rate.
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: So the.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Matchup, the way the line is moving is indicative of
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: the underlying stats and expectations of some bad luck not
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: going against the Jags anymore. So that's why it's their
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: big balls, big falls.
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: Before the past two weeks, I would just tell the
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: public this is like the definition of a trap. But
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: they've just been stepping in a bunch of traps and
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: they're not getting caught, so they're the ones laughing. But
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: this is like everything I think of, and you as
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: well of, Like you're about to step in. You think
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: you've got a good number, Oh they're giving you even
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: better number.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Now at three and a half.
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: Usually this is a weary sign where you know ninety
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: percent of the bets, ninety percent of the money are
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: coming on Green Bay, and it's now moved through one
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: key number.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: That's a big deal.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Simon our sponsor, Tommy John. As bad as my voice
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: sounds right now, I'm still super comfortable because I'm wearing
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• 21:29
  Speaker 1: All right, INDI at Houston, this was my EXAC decision.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I better at six and a half, You better at
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: six and a half?
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: Sharp? Sharp?
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: It was yeah, totally sharp. I'm sharp. It was my
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: EXAC decision at when it was at six. It's now
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: down to five. There are places where it's going to
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: four and a half. I don't like it as much now,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: given how much come down. I do still like the matchup.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: I know everyone is so fixated on Anthony Richardson and
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: how bad his completion percentage is, and it is historically bad,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: it's terrible. But Jonathan Taylor returned to practice, right, yep.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: If we are looking back to what we talked about
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, where we have been making sort of blind
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: bets on bad teams and the number and bad quarterbacks
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: regardless of the coaching skill, all that this actually fits
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: the framework of what we like in a big underdog.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: We think we're getting value on the number. But they've
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: got their best skill player behind their most dominant unit,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: which is their offensive line, which is the best run
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: blocking unit in football. And Shane Steichen, who's a really
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: good play caller, gets his top weapon back for his
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: best unit. So, like, I know, Anthony Richardson like his
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: comps at historically Josh Freeman, Derek Anderson, JaMarcus Russell. That's
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: the accuracy comb still like the cults.
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and I always try not to be too hard
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: on the kid because it's his ninth game the Pros,
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: and you know, we talked coming into it. He played
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: seventeen games total in his career, and it was just,
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: you know, we were joking before the show about bow Knicks.
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: The guy played, you know, feels like six years in college.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: I think in twenty eighteen he.
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: Was SEC rookie or whatever it was of the year,
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: Freshman of the year. And it's like we Richardson didn't
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: have that, right, he just has not had the reps.
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: And you've seen bow Knicks, even Jane Daniels, a guy
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: who played I feel like four years in college. Like
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: it's a big deal like that kind of getting all
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: this type of reps. So me and you know the
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: deal with Richardson here, like we are going to be
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: screaming his name when it's third and three and he
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: sails the ball over a wide open guy in the flat,
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: Like that's the brutal part with him this season, you know.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: But we always talk about the math and the numbers,
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: and this number was too high. I still think it's
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: too high, so I wouldn't be terrified putting the contest.
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: But again, it'd be nice to get the five and
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: a half over the four and a half. But it's
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: not that big of a deal for us, right, We're
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: just as happy to get it in. But how do
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: you not like this game for an upset? Like this
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: is just a Houston team that I think the public
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: is starting to realize a little bit that they're not
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: that great. There are some hols to this team, and
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: we've seen that since last year. Defense has been playing
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: CJ differently. Right, it's not as been as easy as
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: it was for the previous season rahim offensively, and we
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: talked the loss of Nico Collins to mean this matchup
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: is the biggest deal this guy has destroyed this Colts.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Team the past two years when he plays against them.
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: And even in those games, they were always close with
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: Nico Collins. Now he's gone and we're getting Jonathan Taylor back,
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: which I think is such a huge deal against another
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: weakness for Houston. Like a lot of these things we
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: talk about, they can be run on. So I'm with you, Chad,
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: like you know I feel about this. I love the
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: Colts not only to cover this game, but pull the
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: upset off and wins. So I haven't waivered, but I'm
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: like you. It's like, man, we had six and a
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: half in the contest that would look so so nice.
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: So it's tough that the pros have just bet this down.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting. You know. I log my bets in
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: the app and I like to check in the morning
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: just as like a perverse you know, makes me feel
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: better see how much better number? Yeah, did I get
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the best of the number? And like the Colts plus
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: six and a half is the first bet that's listed,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: and I keep seeing it go down. I'm like, I
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: feel so good it even though it means nothing like.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: People should be listening on Sunday Night Show, right, brother.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Exactly, That's what it means, Like I see the Bears
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: plus one and a half, I'm like, oh my god,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: are you fucking kidding?
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: That one was my favorite this week. Getting that at
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: a plus one and a half. It wasn't just it
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: wasn't just up for a minute or two, it was up.
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: I was betting it's still won the morning, so like
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: it didn't flip until the next.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: Morning on Monday. So that was another great one.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: Maybe you flipped it, maybe, But one trend we have
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: been able to count on home division faves forty five
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: point seven percent against the spread since twenty fifteen, So
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: another that one, Like we're bringing the trends in in
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: the right way. They're complementing. They're not driving Baltimore to Cleveland.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Like I threw this in because it's a big home
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: dog and we don't have any metrics right now telling
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: us to back them. But I do wonder is are
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: we going to get a dead cat bounce here? The
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Ravens are way overvalued coming off of a short week,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Marlon Humphrey injured, Zay Flowers injured. They'll play, but the
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Browns getting healthier, especially in the defensive backfield. Talk about
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: selling high like the one question is did we miss
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: the best of the number because we didn't get it
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: at ten. But Lamar is a favorite of more than three,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: has been terrible. Yep, So like I don't, I don't
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: hate the Browns at nine and a half. I did
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: better at nine and a half. I didn't better at
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: it ten.
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a key moving like, that's what's tough.
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: I bet this at eleven eleven and a half, that's
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: how high it got, and now it's all the way
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: down to a lot of books.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing eight and a half now, Chad. So I
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: like it. But this is exactly what you've talked about. Brother.
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: We're literally betting a bad team with a bad backup
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: quarterback against arguably the best team of football right now.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: So I hate myself. I hate myself.
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: Obviously I like the Browns, but you just said we're
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: one and sixteen in the exact this exact spot. The
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: bounds have not gone our way, So I think we
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: should take the Browns. Obviously, it's a good number, and
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: you know you mentioned the injuries. The biggest one to
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: me is we talked about why we want to fade.
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: This Ravens team is a big favorite. The back door
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: is always going to be open. I mean, they just
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: I can't get over how bad their DC is, Like
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: their defense should not be that big of a drop
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: off from last season. It just shows how important coaching is, right,
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: Like it's night and day the Ravens defense, when the
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: best defenses in football last year and now this year.
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're giving up them most points in football,
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: which is crazy when you have teams like Carolina Panthers
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: out there.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's such a big number.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: Chat, it's if me and you talk ourselves into bend
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: at Sunday morning put in our contest.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: People do not be shocked.
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: But I am so sorry ahead of time because this
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: is exactly the exact game we talked.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: About avoiding because we've just been burned by it.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: You're so right. I hate myself for not even recognizing this.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: I spent the first.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Time to do though.
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: That's what I mean, don't You shouldn't hate yourself. I've
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: made a lot of money. I live a good life
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: betting these type of games. So it's yeah, but it's
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: gonna come back around the.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: First ten hours of my week on Monday, identifying and
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: pinpointing a problem because I'd like us to be thoughtful,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: and I'd like us to improve, and I would like
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: us to just be good at this and be intellectually
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: honest about what's going right and what's going wrong, and
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: not just blindly bet the games we've always historically bet
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: because we're supposed to do it. And then I fall
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: into the freaking trap. Fall into a freaking trap. Yeah, God,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: I hate myself. You know what, I don't hate. I
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: don't hate taking the Cincinnati Bengals. You hate it? Yeah,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: I think you think I'm walking into a trap.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: No, No, Honestly, this game is a coin flip to me.
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: To me, it's two teams that whoever wins this, I'd
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: be like, Okay, they don't suck because right now, in
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: my perspective, this team is that I don't think either
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: of these teams are that good, and they've been fortunate
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: to play bad teams this season and they beat up
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: on bad teams.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: Right, both these teams.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: Have and in my mind, obviously the Eagles are way
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: more talented.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: You know, this Bengals team defensively, they're horrible.
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: Like if if Sirianni's true to his where and the
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: Eagles commit to the run and they don't get down
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: seven to nothing and all of a sudden have Jalen
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: Hurts just dropping back the rest of the game, throwing
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: the ball fifty times. I do think they'll cover this
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: number and keep this close, especially at two and a half.
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: But my thing is, Chad, if this guy down a
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: one and a half, I could take. I'll take Bengals
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: within the contest.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: If this is one and a.
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: Half in contest, I'll take that because that's a good
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: number in this Eagles team.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: We talk all the time Hurts as an underdog, especially
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: on the road.
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: He is just not good statistically, like he does not
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: win these type of games. And you know, Eagles defense
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: might be starting two rookies against Joe Burrow in this
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: passing offense. Isn't that a huge bonus for this Bengals team.
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: Like if Burro's gonna carve up anyone, this should be
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: the type of team he'd carve up a young, inexperienced
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: team when he has two veteran wide receivers. So I
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: know where you're coming from this Bengals team. It's just
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: my fear is this Bengals team is just a bad team.
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: Like I get it. You beat up on the Giants
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: the Panthers, and you know, great, but now you're going
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: to play a team that we perceived to be a
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: legit playoff team.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: The Eagles should step up here and beat this team.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: So that's just my hesitation here.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I can convince you, because I
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: actually I might like this game as much as I
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: like the Bears. A plus one and a half. Wow,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Like I've got the better quarterback, a really good kicker
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: who drops bombs at less than a field goal, Joe
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Burrow thanks to Evan, I know that Joe Burrow was
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: twenty two six and one when facing a team that
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: just covered the Eagles overall, sixty three percent against the
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: spread in his career, seventy percent against the spread against
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: teams that are over five hundred. We've seen the public
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: come in on the Eagles and this line has moved
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: to two and a half plus, and I think this
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: is big. We don't know the status of Dallas Goddard.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: He might not play because of a hamstring injury. Didn't
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: practice yesterday. Jordan Mailatta out, so that's terrible. I listened
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: to Raybon and Stuckey on the Sunday six Pack this
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: morning the Action Network podcast, Raybem made the point that
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Fred Johnson Jordan Mailatta is backup, allows a pressure rate
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: of twenty two percent, the average for left tackles six percent,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: and he's going to be going against Trey Hendrickson.
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they'll have some of the counter that though there
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: are no dummies. But I agree with you, it's not ideal.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: But I felt the same thing last week. Why didn't
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: want to take the Eagles? It was like, I guess
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: who has a way better d line than the Cincinnati team,
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: the Giants, And it was neutered because they could run
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: the ball. And that's the key here, That's what I'm
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: telling you. The key to this game is if Saquan
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: dominates this game, the Eagles will run away over it.
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: This Bengals defense is that bad. But on the flip side,
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: you just said all those Joe Burrows scots are terrifying,
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: like Joe should beat up on this team is But
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: the problem is we don't know we're getting week to
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: week from Joe Burrow.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: Chad.
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's that's what the risk injury has been
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: this season. Some weeks it looks like old Joe, who's
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: starting for three hundred yards. You know, four touchdowns in
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: a game, and then you have a follow up week
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: where he can't complete third down passes. Right, he just
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: struggles because he has no control over the ball because
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: he can't feel the ball, Like that's the issue with
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: the grip on the ball with his wrists.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: So you know that's the pushback for me.
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: But once again, Chad, if this is one and a
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: half on Sunday, you're feeling good about it, I'll bet
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: that number as well. I could be bullied and taking
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati here because I do think it's all about the
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: number in this matchup. Like you're right, the kicker is
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: a big deal in this game.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: In the NBA, there's Bullyball on the favorites, there's Bully
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Bets Buffalo with Seattle. I like, I don't you mentioned it.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: I'm fine if we pass it. Yeah, okay.
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to deal with it either.
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: I just know what the professionals like. They like the
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: bills and they like the bills of minus three. So
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: if you want, if you want to take the bills
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: of the pros, make sure you get the three before
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: it goes with three and a half.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: The one thing I would say is then that to
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: me says the professionals don't think Seattle is a very
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: good team, yep, because the Bills are bullies. They beat
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: up on the bad teams and then they get beat
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: by the good times the good teams. The one outlier
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: is the Jets, who probably are a good team, but
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: they're poorly coached, bad attitude, make dumb mistakes.
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: It was a game that the Bills and Josh Allen
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: just you know, it doesn't match up all against that defense,
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: and that historically has been the case for him the
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: last couple of years. But we already talked about Josh
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: Allen's in god mode, no turnovers, fifteen touchdown.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping Chargers Saints. I don't think that'll ever to
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: make the contest with Chargers minus seven, which is the
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: number I think you lean to. I don't have an
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: opinion on it.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Charger. But that's fine.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: We can keep it moving because, like I think, there's
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: other games we know we're going to want to put
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: in right Chicago minus two and a half, so let's
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: talk about it.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: Hungry Bears are violent bears.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Jadeen Daniels did not practice on Wednesday. We both bet
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the Bears at one and a half, even with the
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: injury to Jade Daniels. I don't love we're betting against
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: the line flip forty two betting against the line flip
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen. But Kayleb Williams has been doing special
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: things undefeated in the second half this year against the spread.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Only other person who's Patrick Mahomes How bad? How bad
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: will Washington be with Marcus Mariota, like you pointed it
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: out on Tuesday, how terrible he is. They've had twelve
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: punts this season, the fewest since nineteen fifty. They've been
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: perfect on fourth downs and nearly fifty percent on third downs.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: All of that changes without Jayden and Daniels. So to me,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: I'm fine betting the Bears because I think we have
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: to think about this not as a line flip, but
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: as a new line with the Bears is less than
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: a field goal.
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and the book makers are just like me, where
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: it's seven points of vye from Jane Daniels to Marcus Mariota.
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: So like the line flip to me, makes total sense.
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: They need to make that flip because anyone who has
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: a model is going to see that this is just
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: an off line. So sure, what mean you might get caught?
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: Maybe we're stepping in here back in the Bears team, But.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Are we in the Foxhill? Are we in the Foxhol
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: with the Bears?
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: I'd love to be in the foxhewl on the Bear.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: That'd be really nice.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: I would love to be in a foxhol with you
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: and the Bears.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Let's go.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: That would be my dream foxhol me, you and the
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Chicago freaking Bears. We are in the fox whole.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: foxhole guy.
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy. Just matchup wise, We've talked about it.
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: I love the way this defense can match up against
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: the Washington On offense.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: We know Washington was gonna have a bunch of aggression
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: coming up right.
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: Their third down completion rate, it's impossible sustain that being
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: nine for nine off fourth downs. You just can't sustain
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: that type of consistency for the whole season, especially with
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: a young, inexperienced offense that they have with Jane Dales.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: Now you say, well Mario is coming, that should be different.
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: I really do think Jane Doellens is that much better
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: than Marcus Marioder. Like that's why I'm so willing to
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: say the line move so much. It's just night and day.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: That's not going out on a limb.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: It's not. But people professionally wht think it is.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: Where it's like they think Mario can do a lot
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: of the same stuff that he does, which.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Is, you know, being a mobile quarterback.
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: And I think that there's more to jayde Daniels game
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: right now than Mark Smarrio. So my view of this
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: is just Bears are smart. Their coaching staff smart enough
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: they'll just stack the box and they'll force Maria to
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: pass the ball.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: The key to this game will be stopping Brian Robinson
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: and Austin Eckler, Like you stop the run game, force
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: Maria to pass, especially on thirty and eights, Like that's
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: me and Chat are going to make our money on
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: thirty and eights against Mariota, Like that's where we want
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: to be. Where he's got to pass the ball over
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: ten yards and we're going to get a either stupid
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: pass or a tip pass. Get some turnovers here with
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: this Bear secondary that's been so good this season offensively,
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: Bears I can't find the weakness in the matchup for
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: them against this Washington team. Like Washington this year has
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: been lucky that they've been up in so many leads
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: because it's easy for them to pin their ears back
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: and just rush the passer right, and that will not
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: be the case here. I think the Bears be able
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: to keep them off bound, especially if this game is close,
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: and the fact that it's still under three is the
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: key to me. Like, I just like that number a
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: lot at two and a half. So yeah, people can
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: tell listen to this. It's one of my favorite Chalker
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: sides of the week, is this Bears matchup, especially coming
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: off the bye week.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: I've been trying to figure out which Chalky game, which
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: public game we're going to put in. I'm surprised that
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: you are like this so much more than back in
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. It just it strange to me. I mean,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: one of those games is not going to make it.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: Say Joe Burrow in twenty twenty two. This is Joe
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: Burrow in twenty twenty four. The guys the different quarterback.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: What I'm saying is one of these games will not
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: make it into our final five. And on Sunday night.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: It will be a fascinating conversation. Fascinating Matt Mitchell, do
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: not let us forget to talk about the Bengals or
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: the Bears on Sunday night. All right, Kansas City at
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas plus nine and a half the Raiders.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: The autumn win is a rat of pillaging.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Just for five my own games come down from ten.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Look Tuesday morning, we had three double digit favorites. Now
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: we're down to one. The Browns have come down, the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Raiders have come down. We've bet the Raiders. We bet
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: them at plus ten. This is a massive pros Joe's split.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: We're doing this signmon in spite of the fact even
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: though Mahomes is only forty eight percent against the spread
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: as a favorite of more than three nine, six and
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: two the past two seasons. In spite of the fact
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: public road faves sixty one percent against the spread the
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: past two years, and don't forget sixteen and two since
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: the start of Week five, In spite of the fact
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Home Division dogs three nine to one this year thirty
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: eight percent since the start of twenty three, only fifty
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: one percent since twenty twenty. None of those are good
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: road teams. Sixty one percent against the spread this season,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: one in sixteen. We are in this exact spot this season,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: And in spite of the fact the Chiefs just eliminated
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: their biggest issue, which was getting a dependable receiver. In
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: spite of the fact mahomes eleven to seven and one
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: against the spread against divisional opponents, like I know, this
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: is one of our big dog plays. I like Cleveland
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: more than I like the Raiders.
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: That's fair in my eyes. There, it's the exact same.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: It's the same as last week with the Browns and
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: the Giants. There's no difference to me. We're just playing
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: the numbers here in the scenario, in the situation, And
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: just like those games I liked last week, this week,
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: I like both matchups for these big old dogs. I
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: like the matchup for the Raiders, not just defensively, all offensively.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: But I get the hesitation.
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: Chat we're back in the Raiders team that you know
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: you said it last week is historical. No team has
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: ever turned the ball over whatever it was, four times
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: and just had all these awful things happen, they still
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: cover the number just because their coach kicked the random
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: field goal. So I get where you're coming from this
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: Raiders team. It's not for the faint of heart, and
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: I get why we might end up passing on this
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: one just because it was ten and a half in
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: the contest key number. Now it's down to nine and
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: a half in contest, which is a big deal to me,
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: Like if we're not gonna get the best of the number,
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: especially with the dog shit team like this Raiders team,
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: it's like, Okay, I could be bullied off of it,
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: but you you being scared of Hopkins is one of
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: the funnier things that's happened this week. You acting like, oh,
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: I got a bad number. This number is gonna go
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: up now because Hopkins joined the team. It's like, in
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: what world does Chad think Hopkins is moving this by
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: even half a point.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's moving. I don't think it's moving
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: it by half a point.
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: But you're acting like you got a bad number at ten,
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: as if it was going to keep going up, and
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: it's like.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, I bet the number at ten. I'm
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: glad I got it at ten. I'm thinking we got
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: a bad number at nine and a half or lower
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: for the contest because you say we bet this number,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: but betting this number has not worked for us, and
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: betting this number for the past two years has been
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: a bad number. So it's not an automatic at less
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: than ten for me to say, yes, this has to
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: be in the contest. And when you think about the Browns, like,
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: at least the Browns have a dominant defensive end, they
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: have an all Pro cornerback in Denzel Ward. They have
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: like an offensive line that is getting healthier. They have
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: a better coach than the Raiders have. So those are
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: the factors that to me are making me lean Browns
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: more than Raiders.
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: No, I get it, you're a great salesman, but at
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: the end of the day, both these teams are bad.
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: They're both playing with what we presume to be backup quarterbacks,
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: and it's just there is, truly, to me, no difference.
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: It's just I just bet the numbers. Chad scared of it,
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: but it's like, this is what I do. So it's like, yeah,
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: the losses sucked, but I still look at it that
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: it's just been bad luck, bad balances. So it's like
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: I try not to have reacted too much. Yeah, if
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: you don't want to put this Raiders one, and you
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: rather take the Browns. I like the Browns as well,
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: so it's like, I'm not going to fight you off
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: that one. My whole point of the best of the
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: Number is saying that ten and a half is a
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: big deal and that we're not getting ten and a
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: half is the reason why I wouldn't put the Raiders
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: in now. But what I still bet them at nine
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: and a half. Yeah, I still would take them at
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: nine and a half. It's just not as confident as
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: I was as I was on Tuesday.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: I love when you patronize me during.
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: The show, well just because sometimes you say things, I'm
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: just like, this guy's out of his mind.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: This guy is out of his mind.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to a game that we agree with,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Dallas at San Francisco. We like Dallas at plus four.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: It was at five and a half on Sunday. It
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: was four and a half when you made it. Simon says,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: this is a true Joe bro split Cowboys off a bye.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: From a sort of atmosphere point of view, couldn't be
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: worse for them right now. Not only was Jerry Jones
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago trying to threaten Cowboy's broadcasters
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: because they were asking him hard questions. This week, he's
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: calling out Mike McCarthy's play calling a coach he could
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: have fired after they were blown out at home in
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Yeah, but decided to keep a coach who
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: he didn't support by signing anybody of any value in
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: the off season. We're still backing him because San Francisco,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know who they're putting on the field. So
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: we like the Cowboys.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we know the numbers on DAK. Dak is struggled,
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: struggle as a dog.
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: But luckily I haven't had some great stuff in there
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: about McCarthy off of bye a week and same with
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: Dak on extended rest that they've actually performed really well
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: when they have extra time to prepare for these teams.
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: And you know, we all know the stats right this
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: forn ire thing without uh they you know, Debo and
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: without Ayuk and without Christian McCaffrey, Like we just we
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: talked about it, right, they're gonna struggle in the red zone.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: That to me will be the difference in this game.
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: That's why this spread feels too big. That's why I
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: think the Cowboys will keep it close. Because you say,
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: what you want about Dak he gets them down there.
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: He's for the most parts that I'll finish a lot
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: of these drives and a lot of their losses kind
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: of come because of their defense. Right now, that'll get
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: stops here, I think about it, get stops like as
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: banged up as there defensively, you can't tell me the
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: forty nine ers are gonna be okay offensively, Like the
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: injuries have to catch up to them, and we've seen
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: they have. Right They're three and fourth this point. So
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: it just feels like another spot that I'm gonna take
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: the dog. I'm gonna take the dog to win outright, Like,
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: I just love this spot for this Dallas team. So
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: once again a number that I'm hoping we get four
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: and a half in contest. If it is three and
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: a half, I don't mind it. That's why I think
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: the number should be. I still think there's value there.
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: So this is a classic case of man, this this
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: this team makes you scary to bet on this Cowboys
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: team because they've been so bad this year.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: But we just have to trust the number and trust
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: the spot, right Chad.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: I do I trust this number. I trust the quarterback.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: I am worried about the Niners and their injuries. It's
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: it's you know. Raybon had a great stat on the
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: show that he did this morning. Per Raybon, a third
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: of party's targets yards and touchdowns, where with Christian McCaffrey
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: and Brandon Ayuk. If you don't have debo, that number
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: goes up to fifty percent. So at some point, you're right,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: it just catches up with you if you've got none
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: of your weapons. And Kittle is banged up. So we'll
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: be on the Cowboys. Cowboys will be in the contest.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: I think we got a really interesting list going here
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: between the Cowboys have.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: A couple of favorites we like because that's been our
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: Achilles Hill this season. To me.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: We like the Bears, we like the Lions, we Slash,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: I like Cincy, but we also like Dallas. We also
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: like Indy. We also like Jacksonville. We like Cleveland. We
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: like the Raiders. It's gonna be It's gonna be fun.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be fun.
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the heart
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: football players.
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: They are the Dallas Cowboys.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: Each week we give out a two team money line
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: underdog parlay Bet three six five boost the odds and
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Remember both games are eligible for the Bet three sixty
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: five early payout promo, where your money line pick gets
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: marked as a win if that team takes a seventeen
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: point lead, even if they lose. So if you want
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: to bet this, bet it at bet three sixty five.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: The boost did parlay, no surprise. If you've been listening
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts, go to those game pages at
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: bet three six five to find the boosted parlay. Go
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: to the Colts, Go to the Cowboys. You'll find the boost,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: all right, simon our money line underdog round Robin.
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: There will come up heay nay Halla, lou yo wanna
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: pay day.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: There will come up.
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: Pay day some day.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: Some day there will come up heayday.
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: Halla lou yo wanna payday.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: I will come up pay day some day.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: I I have some ideas you ready, yes, sir, well,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not putting the Panthers on there, I'll tell you
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: right now. But I did put the Patriots. I put
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: the Browns.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: I like the Browns. I don't like the Patriots, all right.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: I put the Colts, I put the Cowboys.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: Love it, Jaguars.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Interesting okay, Jags.
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: Uh, Raiders, Raiders okay? No, I was gonna say for
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: the last one, should we go with the Bucks?
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: No?
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: I had Raiders?
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: Actually you did?
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: I love if that in the Browns hit, that alone
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: would cover the round robin.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: So I do love the payout, all right, So let's
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: do the Raiders. Raiders, Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Jags are our
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: moneyline underdog round Robin. Before we get to Simon's biggest bets,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: get excited, We're releasing a very short bonus episode of
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: the podcast. Saturday morning. We sat down with comedian producer
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: writer Gambler, popular New York sports fan Kid Marrow. It
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: was a riot, Simon, and I didn't want it to end.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: It's true. Be sure to check it out. We promise
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: you'll like it. Simon. Give me your biggest bets.
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: Sure, Cowboys as people, Oh love them, Bears people know
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: love it. I was the Colts, but now this numbers
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: move so and much people I wouldn't chase. I wouldn't
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: chase this as much as I was, this was gonna
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: be one of my bigger ones. Now that it's down
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: blow six, I still like it, It's just not gonna
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: be one of my biggest bets. Still love Jaguars A
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: plus four if that number stays there going into Sunday,
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: no doubt about it. And then the final one, of course,
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Rams.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Wow. All right, so a lot of people be listening
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: to this after the Thursday night game. But that's big
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: scooch Roulette. You're five and two, you have a commanding
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: three game lead. Who's your scooch Roulette?
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: Let's play scooch Roulette.
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: Man, I have so many games I love, you know what,
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: I'm trying to just get it over with. Get the
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: six and two tonight. Gave me the Rams plus three.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Give me the Cincinnati Bengals, You fool.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: That's your scooter left pic check. Come on.
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: Oh and before we move on to my guy Evan people,
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: Sunday morning, me and Chad do a show on YouTube
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: or in the action app called Convince Me. Just like
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: this show. It's free this season. I think last week
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: I went I went three and oh on my bonus
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: bedit so I was four and oh I'm fourteen and
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: seven on the season, so sixty seven percent for the season.
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: On my picks, all free Gushulis is sixty seven percent
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: for the season.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: Chris Raybaugh, So you have two guys.
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: On the same show, or give it out free winners
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: every Sunday, wake up, latch our fucking show and make money.
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: I cannot believe our numbers aren't even bigger than this show.
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: It's just free money in Sunday morning.
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: What are you people doing? So?
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we've been really hot. It's been really fun. Check
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: us out Sunday morning.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Convince me all the all the stuff, none of the fluff.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: The only pregame show. It focuses on the true stuff.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: All right, It's time to bring in our director of research,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. Make us feel good. By the last word
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I wanted to take over for you multiple times
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: during this show chat. I feel bad, but we're gonna
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: get there for you.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: Let me tast on. It doesn't hurt at all.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: That's good enough, just hurts the list.
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: It makes us feel better at least. All right, So
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: our bet Labs database here at the Action Network goes
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: back to two thousand and three in the NFL. So
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: my trivia question at the moment is who is the
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: most profitable coach against the spread on extended rest? Good
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: for you, guys, it is Mike McCarthy twenty five, eighteen
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: and three with the Packers, even better with Dallas thirteen
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: and five against the spread with Dallas when he's an
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: underdog on extended rest fourteen six and one. So I
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: can understand why you guys are interested in that Dallas
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: San Francisco spot. Talking about your Bears for a second,
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: this is just going to be playing and simple, and
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: I think I've actually used this one on this show before,
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: but teams off of bye versus a team not just
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: playing and simple, And this number is pretty short still
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: is fifty six point one percent straight up since that
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: two thousand and three number. That's over six hundred game
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: sample size if they if the team off the Bay
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: is above five hundred thirty five and fifteen straight up
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: seventy percent since twenty twenty, So pretty decent spot for
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: those Bears. Now you had mentioned the Colts, and I
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: know that number has gotten a little out of whack
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: in terms of the number we would bet it at
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: But it's worth noting Nico Collins and his importance to
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: this Houston offense. So Texans are five and twelve straight
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: up in games he either doesn't play or has one
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: target or fewer. And then you look inside the numbers.
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: In weeks one through five, Nico led the NFL in
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: receiving yards by over one hundred and his first read
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: designed target mark of thirty six was tied for six
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: most at that point.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: In the NFL.
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: So Stroud was looking to him almost all the time.
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: Now talk about Stroud for a half second here. Weeks
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: one through five, he was fourteenth in EPA per play
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: and fifteenth in completion percentage overexpected. Last two weeks that's
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: down to twenty sixth in EPA per play and twenty
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: fourth CPOE. So just a different quarterback without his target
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: there Now, finally I will go to the Cleveland Browns.
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: Truly a bad low cell high spot here at Deshaun
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: Watson's injury, kind of hard to overstate how bad he was.
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: So his passing success rate was thirty three point three
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: percent through seven games. That was the sixteenth worst mark
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: of any QB in the last thirty years. Of those
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: sixteen quarterbacks, his eight point four yards gain per completion
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: was tied for the worst with Bobby Woyinge of the
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: Eagles in nineteen ninety eight. That was just the level
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: of quarterback play Cleveland was going through. And also to
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: no surprise, Cleveland became the fourth team since two thousand
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: to start their first seven games with out scoring twenty
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: points Chad College Football and NFL. Cleveland is still the
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: only team not to score twenty points in a game
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: this year. So it just the offense was unreal.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: And then you have a mind boggling, mind.
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: Boggling Ucla was on that list before they did it,
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: like a week or so ago. Here comes Jamis Winston.
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: You went into the medical ten at one point, came
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: back out.
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: Where was the pain?
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: Jamis? Yeah, just paying It was paining everywhere. So we
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: gotta keep all pushing through and being Rezoli And all.
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: You know about Jamis is gonna chuck it downfield. Since
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, his a Dot average depth of target
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: is eleven point six, second of seventy eight qualifying quarterbacks.
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: Deshaun's was seven point eight. That's a difference of four
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: yards downfield that Jamis is going to chuck the ball.
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: And yes, there's one note on Baltimore before I get
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: out of here. They've won four straight, scoring thirty plus
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: in each teams on those streaks just forty three percent
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: ats last twenty years. It's a tough spot, but it's
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: the right one. So Ravens by thirty.
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: I guess.
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but evan that same trend, Yeah, thirty plus four
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: straight wins applies to the Detroit Lions.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: One in one. It'll be fine.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: I like your hey, buddy. As a reminder, the Favorites
• 56:03
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• 56:47
  Speaker 1: and I will return with our next episode of The
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• 56:52
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