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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Just told Big Clients to BUY Before This Date + Stock Market News 13 August 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Felix here.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Good morning to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Apologies for the slightly delayed start.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: I was just fixing a vet appointment for one of my cats who's sadly not very well, and I've got an online vet who's amazing, in North Carolina.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: She's like a healer.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: She would have been burned as a witch, I think, in previous centuries and she's a marvelous, wonderful being.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: So that's why I'm a few minutes later.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Apologies for that.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I shall get cracking for you straight away and show you the pre-market where I tell you what we're about to go through here today.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So we've got the first of all pretty sweet looking pre-market, but we've got the Goldman Sachs guru, goldman Sachs big investment bank, lots of lovely people, really, really careful for the world and ESG friendly and all of that.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: And, joking aside, he called the top on July 17th.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Very, very well, he basically said, when we were here and the market really started to drop, he said don't buy the dip.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: That's what he said to his customers.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: That's what he did himself, and he was, of course, right, because it got a lot worse and he's just changed tune completely and I want to explain that to you because I think that'll really help you understand what's going to happen in the next two weeks and then after that, because we're going through a bit of an odd time of the year here that I think could make us a lot of money.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Very simple, and speaking of a lot of money, we're up $24,000 so far on our teaching portfolio this year, on a $30,000 portfolio that is.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: So we're up about 80%.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And if you want to join me in literally 11 hours live for our live trading challenge two days that is of unadulterated fun and learning for beginners then go to felixfrenzelogscom.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Challenge Link is down below.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: We're going to have blast over there.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So is it time to buy the dip?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Well, if you just look at purely what's happening, what's coming up, the big one this month is the NVIDIA earnings report.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: That's a big one, and maybe you think maybe we should wait that out because that's an uncertainty.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: We don't really know what they're going to do.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Right, could be great, could be slightly disappointing.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And then on the 22nd, just before that, we've got Jackson Hole, but I think it's less important.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I think NVIDIA, but I think it's less important.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I think Nvidia trumps the Fed.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Sorry, fedsters, what about all those computers?
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I've been telling you that they keep selling and they will keep selling.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: But things are about to change.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: How do you read a chart like this?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: How do you solve a problem like CTAs?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Ctas are algo funds who sell automatically, no human engagement it's a little bit like the like button on this live stream no human engagement whatsoever.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: And they've been selling since about the 25th of July and I flagged that to you.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: And then it got a lot worse on 5th of August when Japan imploded and Buffett just sold and all that kind of stuff.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: But as we're getting into sort of the 12th isn't today the 12th, 13th even?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Um, what happens?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Well, the charts go flat, don't they flat?
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Flat, and some are even going up, which means they're buying.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: But even the worst case chart, which is the one down here at the bottom, is going flat.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So while there is, for the month, selling, the selling was front loaded and the worst is behind us.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So that's quite positive, right?
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: So now we're feeling a little bit happier, a little bit chirpier this morning, don't we?
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Some love to the like button, patrick, thank you very much.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: 85 of you deemed it worthy of smashing or stroking or fondling, whatever you do to the like button.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And why does this matter?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: And why does the next bit of information I'm about to tell you about what Goldman says matters so much Because there is something called book depth or market depth.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Basically, how much volume is there?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: How many people are actually trading?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: What happens in August?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Where is everybody?
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Well, if you are a well-to-do hedge fund guy, you're probably in Saint-Tropez.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: If you're a well-to-do you know investment bank, you're probably in Saint-Tropez.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: If you're a little bit less well-to-do, you might be somewhere in hiding in Connecticut or someone like that, martha's Vineyard or possibly Caribbean.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Not so much, I think.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: And therefore, yes, they're literally on holiday and the market depth is literally down here, which is 80% less than what we had just three weeks ago.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: What does it mean?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: If you sell a lot, the market tax.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: If you buy a lot, the market goes to the moon.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: One big buy or one big sell moves the whole freaking market, which is why it's so volatile right now and which is why we're loving it.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you why.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: So our Goldman Sachs genius, their quant guru, he says this will be my last bearish stock markets call for August.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: We're ending the worst of the stock supply and demand mismatch for August and this is innings eight of nine of the correction in baseball game terms.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: I'm glad he explained what innings meant for us.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: That's what we needed explaining about.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So he's basically saying we're almost at the end of it and when you're almost at the end of it, it is surely positive.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I'm still drinking my lovely electrolytes here.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Highly recommend it, excuse me, but why?
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Why is he ultimately saying it's innings eight of nine of the sell-off?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Well, this is the secret, my friends.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: This is the chart of all charts that will make all other charts feel very, very jealous.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: It is the annual share buyback activity.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Exciting, isn't it?
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: You should tell your friends about that tonight over a drink and say look at this, this is the most exciting thing I've seen today.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: You'll have less friends by the end of the day too, which is why I'm always here talking to you.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So shareback buyback activity authorized this year is 1.1 trillion, 1.15 trillion with a T or a Biden B.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: We're going to miss the guy, aren't we?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to miss him for entertainment value.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: I thought it was quite funny, really a little bit sad.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: And if you ask our friends at Goldman Sachs again, they'll say this the Goldman Sachs program trading desk, which is their buyback desk.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Because actually, if you're Apple and you want to buy back your own shares.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: How do you do it?
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: You got to call a broker.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: You got to call Goldman Sachs and say hey, lovely bankers, may we please send you some orders?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: There will be 4.75 billion of daily purchasing until September 6th.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: That's almost 5 billion per day in guaranteed stock purchases.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: You think that's going to support the market?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: You think just a little bit, just like hitting the like button on this channel would support this particular video to get more people to know what the heck is going on in the world.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So that's one reason.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: And, as I say, the next few weeks are the most illiquid of the year, so that 5 billion of buying a day is actually worth a lot more than 5 billion because very few people trading.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So this 5 billion a day should drive the market up pretty significantly, going into at least up till September 6th.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: So you might want to put that in your diary.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: September 6th, of course, not financial advice and so on, but do your own research.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: This is what was greenlit in the last week Random stocks, $15 billion, though I don't even know who make Kesem isers builders first source.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Never seen them before in my life.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Exelixis, what I mean.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: You came up with that name, hilton I've heard of.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: So these are millions, by the way.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: So that's 4 billion with a B and this is still half a billion.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So pretty significant, right?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: They greenlit that just and they're going to execute a lot of that in August.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So is that bullish or is that bullish?
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I'd say that's rather bullish.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Now, what sectors you're thinking?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Well, what's the yellow sector?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Say?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: That was what I was trying to figure out.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: This is financials thin, and that's a big, big, big chunk of that.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Infotech, commercial services are also big parts of that.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So if I was looking at three sectors, it would probably be financials.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: We started setting up bullish trades on last Friday on our live stream for the coaching community Financials, exactly.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: We're looking at that.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: We also looked at industrials, but we might need to go back to infotech and communication services.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Consumer discretionary I'd be a little cautious about that just because of what we're about to talk about right now.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: But certainly, I think financials and also healthcare I think looks pretty good.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Lly and stuff like that looks pretty, pretty sweet from a chart setup point of view.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Now, I thought I had another.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, I did, I did.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Here is a chart.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: So why did I say be a bit cautious with the consumer?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Staples, the sort of stuff you got to buy Home depot, is mostly stuff, not mostly.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: A lot of it is stuff you need.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Some of it is stuff that you don't need.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: It's a bit of both, isn't it?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: It's probably more discretionary than staples.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: They probably do sell staples, which is ironic Stocks down pre-market why?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: They're basically saying they're worried about the consumer, they're worried about you, they're very, very sad about what's happening out there to you as a consumer.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Where does the support sit Down here at 330.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So 330.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: This is a screenshot from Trade Vision.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: There's a link down below for that if you want to get yourself a one-month trial and that red bar there at 330 tells me that's support.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So that's one thing to be a little cautious of consumer stocks right now.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: If you were in small caps and I know I always hit you over the head with a lot of data, don't I?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: You guys are talking politics, are you?
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Because of the Elon interview.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I tried to listen to it and I just kind of felt like I'd heard it all before.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: So I went and did something productive.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I sapped my cat, which I thought was a lot more productive and she didn't want to listen to Trump.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: She said turn that racket off.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Nothing against Trump, by the way.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: It's very entertaining who you guys elect 350 million people, many brilliant minds, some of the most brilliant minds in the world, and you pick those two.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: It is quite amusing, isn't it?
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: You can take a step back.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: It is quite amusing.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Maybe you're too close to it, that is less amusing for you.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: But inflation data we're getting some out tomorrow or even today, actually, even today and tomorrow.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow is the big one CPI.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: We'll look at PPI in a second.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: It's each of these black lines where inflation readings and you can see what it did to the small caps Very, very, very big impact on small caps.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: So watch out for that.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: If you are in Russell stocks, who would you pick?
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: See, the beauty is I don't have to pick.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Where I come from, germany, they don't allow me to vote anymore because I haven't lived there for so long.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: You lose the right to vote, although I imagine if you're an illegal immigrant without a passport, you probably get to vote.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm not sure you do.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: No, I don't right to vote, although I imagine if you're an illegal immigrant without a passport, you probably get to vote.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm not sure you do.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: No, I don't get to vote.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I don't really vote Vote anywhere.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: I think it's largely a waste of time.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you.