Latest / The Infographics Show Podcast / Unsolved Mysteries the FBI Still Can’t Crack
Transcript
- 0:10Speaker 1: Welcome to be on infographics the dive where we skip
- 0:12Speaker 1: the surface level stuff and get right into the complex
- 0:15Speaker 1: reality hiding in the footnotes of history's biggest mysteries.
- 0:20Speaker 2: Today, we are really taking on a huge mission. We're
- 0:22Speaker 2: bridging more than a century of you know, forensic and
- 0:25Speaker 2: investigative history.
- 0:26Speaker 1: Yeah, we really are. And it's all to understand how
- 0:29Speaker 1: some crimes go cold, and not necessarily because the investigators failed,
- 0:33Speaker 1: but because the structure, or the law or even just
- 0:36Speaker 1: the technology, well it just didn't exist to get justice
- 0:39Speaker 1: at the time.
- 0:39Speaker 2: That structural framework is absolutely the key. We're looking at
- 0:42Speaker 2: a journey from total structural incompetence and these huge legal
- 0:47Speaker 2: gaps to today where you have hyper focused you know,
- 0:50Speaker 2: pin needle sized DNA analysis.
- 0:53Speaker 1: An incredible contrast. We're going to start with this, this
- 0:55Speaker 1: colossal act of foreign sabotage on US soil that happened
- 0:59Speaker 1: decade before Pearl Harbor. It's almost forgotten out, and will
- 1:02Speaker 1: trace the line from that moment of chaos all the
- 1:05Speaker 1: way to modern forensic genealogy. This wild science that can
- 1:10Speaker 1: idea killer through the D and I of their fifth cousin.
- 1:13Speaker 2: It's a wild riot from a world with no real
- 1:15Speaker 2: tools to a world where the tools are so powerful
- 1:18Speaker 2: we're debating the ethics of even using them.
- 1:21Speaker 1: And if you appreciate this kind of deep, intricate look
- 1:25Speaker 1: at how policy meets puzzle solving, please take just a
- 1:28Speaker 1: moment right now and rate Beyond Infographics five stars. It
- 1:31Speaker 1: really helps us keep bringing you these analyzes.
- 1:33Speaker 2: It really does.
- 1:34Speaker 1: So let's start our journey at the beginning, at the
- 1:36Speaker 1: point where modern American security really started to be defined
- 1:40Speaker 1: by crisis. I'm talking about the Black Tom Explosion of
- 1:44Speaker 1: nineteen sixteen.
- 1:45Speaker 2: This is a textbook case, a perfect example of how
- 1:48Speaker 2: a structural vacuum, and in this case, a total lack
- 1:51Speaker 2: of legislation and centralized intelligence can just open the door
- 1:55Speaker 2: for an unprecedented act of well foreign terrorism.
- 1:58Speaker 1: And the date was July thirtieighth, nineteen sixteen.
- 2:01Speaker 2: What happened, Jersey City was just rocked by one of
- 2:04Speaker 2: the largest non nuclear explosions ever recorded on US soil.
- 2:07Speaker 2: The location was Black Tom Island.
- 2:09Speaker 1: Which at the time was this crucial peninsula right there
- 2:12Speaker 1: in the New York day.
- 2:13Speaker 2: Yeah, you could see the Statue of Liberty from it.
- 2:15Speaker 2: And it wasn't just an island, it was essentially a
- 2:17Speaker 2: massive floating munition depot.
- 2:19Speaker 1: So you have barges, freight cars, warehouses.
- 2:23Speaker 2: All of it just packed to the gills with dynamite
- 2:25Speaker 2: and ammunition, and it was all destined for the Allied
- 2:29Speaker 2: powers fighting in World War One.
- 2:30Speaker 1: The estimates are just staggering, something like two million pounds
- 2:34Speaker 1: of munitions exploded at least.
- 2:37Speaker 2: The force was just monumental. The shock wave was felt
- 2:39Speaker 2: over one hundred miles away.
- 2:41Speaker 1: Its shattered windows all across Manhattan and Brooklyn. I read
- 2:45Speaker 1: the concussion wave was so powerful it literally knocked the
- 2:48Speaker 1: hands off the clock on the Queard Line Building's tower.
- 2:51Speaker 2: Yeah, and pieces of shrapnelso weighing over one hundred pounds.
- 2:55Speaker 2: They found them embedded in the Statue of Liberty. They
- 2:58Speaker 2: had to do repairs costing nearly a hundred one thousand dollars.
- 3:01Speaker 1: Back then it was an active war, absolutely.
- 3:03Speaker 2: But here's the kicker. The US was officially neutral.
- 3:07Speaker 1: And that neutrality, that's the central structural failure we were
- 3:10Speaker 1: talking about.
- 3:11Speaker 2: Exactly. Because the US wasn't officially at war, there were,
- 3:14Speaker 2: and this is critical, no federal statutes that specifically addressed
- 3:18Speaker 2: peacetime sabotage or spying.
- 3:20Speaker 1: So wait, you could have foreign agents blowing up your
- 3:23Speaker 1: infrastructure and there was no specific law to prosecute them for.
- 3:27Speaker 2: It, not for espionage or sabotage. No, we had laws about,
- 3:31Speaker 2: you know, the safe transport of explosives, but nothing covering
- 3:34Speaker 2: intentional destruction on US soil if the goal was to
- 3:38Speaker 2: hurt a foreign war effort.
- 3:40Speaker 1: So the existing agencies, like the Secret Service, they were
- 3:43Speaker 1: just out of their depth completely.
- 3:45Speaker 2: Their mandate was narrow counterfeiting presidential protection. They didn't have
- 3:50Speaker 2: the training, the resources, or even the legal authority to
- 3:53Speaker 2: deal with this new kind of threat, the organized covert
- 3:57Speaker 2: enemy within.
- 3:58Speaker 1: And the initial investigation just went nowhere because of this right.
- 4:02Speaker 2: The local officials thought it was maybe catastrophic negligence by
- 4:05Speaker 2: the railroad. A few people were arrested, but they were released.
- 4:08Speaker 2: The commissioner, Edgar Clark, he told President Wilson himself that
- 4:12Speaker 2: no violation federal law had been found.
- 4:14Speaker 1: Because the laws just weren't on the wooks precisely.
- 4:17Speaker 2: The evidence, though, it quickly started pointing toward German agents,
- 4:21Speaker 2: figures like Michael Christoff who was involved in planting the
- 4:24Speaker 2: incendiary devices. But even when they caught him, the prosecution failed.
- 4:29Speaker 2: No law to stick it to and the.
- 4:31Speaker 1: Germans clearly saw this weakness and just pushed it even further.
- 4:35Speaker 2: Oh they did. Just a few months later, January nineteen seventeen,
- 4:39Speaker 2: German agents recruited a man named Theodore Wozniek and.
- 4:42Speaker 1: He started that disastrous fire at the Kingslynn munition plant
- 4:46Speaker 1: in New Jersey.
- 4:47Speaker 2: Another one, this one caused seventeen million dollars in damage.
- 4:51Speaker 2: That's what over three hundred million in today's money.
- 4:54Speaker 1: Unbelievable.
- 4:54Speaker 2: They were actually lucky. There though, a half million artillery
- 4:57Speaker 2: shells burst into the air, but they hadn't been fitted
- 4:59Speaker 2: with the detonators yet, so unlike Black Tom where people died,
- 5:04Speaker 2: no one was killed or seriously injured.
- 5:06Speaker 1: But the pattern was undeniable. Targeted foreign sabotage was working
- 5:10Speaker 1: because US law enforcement was just totally ill equipped.
- 5:13Speaker 2: And the legal fallout from this. The journey to get
- 5:15Speaker 2: any kind of resolution was just it was painfully slow.
- 5:19Speaker 1: Geologic is the word that comes to mind. A peace
- 5:22Speaker 1: treaty was signed in nineteen twenty one, and that led
- 5:25Speaker 1: to the Nixed Claims.
- 5:25Speaker 2: Commission right, which was set up to sort out claims
- 5:28Speaker 2: between the US and Germany. But you have to imagine
- 5:32Speaker 2: the difficulty you're trying to gather forensic evidence for an
- 5:35Speaker 2: act of sabotage that happened years ago. Witnesses have died
- 5:39Speaker 2: or vanished.
- 5:40Speaker 1: It took nearly eighteen years of just exhaustive legal.
- 5:43Speaker 2: Work, eighteen years, over forty insurance companies and a small
- 5:47Speaker 2: army of lawyers just to convince the Commission in nineteen
- 5:50Speaker 2: thirty nine that yes, this was definitely German sabotage.
- 5:53Speaker 1: And even then getting paid was another battle.
- 5:55Speaker 2: Entirely an agonizingly slow one. Germany finally agreed to pay
- 5:59Speaker 2: the victims ninety seven and a half million dollars in
- 6:01Speaker 2: nineteen fifty three fifty three, and the final installment, the
- 6:04Speaker 2: very last payment, wasn't made until nineteen seventy nine, sixty.
- 6:08Speaker 1: Three years after the explosion. That's a whole lifetime, it.
- 6:11Speaker 2: Is, and it perfectly illustrates why that structural change was
- 6:14Speaker 2: so critical. The legacy of Black Tom and Kingsland was
- 6:17Speaker 2: the complete overhaul of US security policy.
- 6:20Speaker 1: It led directly to the Espionage Act of nineteen seventeen.
- 6:23Speaker 2: Which finally gave them the legal tools they needed, and
- 6:25Speaker 2: it forced this radical restructuring and expansion of intelligence agencies,
- 6:30Speaker 2: especially the Bureau of Investigation, which you know later became
- 6:34Speaker 2: the FBI.
- 6:35Speaker 1: Giving them the power to finally combat this concept of
- 6:39Speaker 1: the enemy within exactly. So that's the invisible foreign enemy.
- 6:42Speaker 1: Now let's shift to the enemy and plain sight organized crime.
- 6:47Speaker 1: We're jumping forward to nineteen fifty and the Great Brinks
- 6:50Speaker 1: robbery in Boston.
- 6:51Speaker 2: At the time, this was the single largest robbery in
- 6:54Speaker 2: US history. A gang of disguised men stole over one
- 6:57Speaker 2: point two million in cash and another one point five
- 7:00Speaker 2: five insecurities.
- 7:01Speaker 1: And what makes this case such a great example of
- 7:03Speaker 1: an enduring cold case problem is that they almost got
- 7:06Speaker 1: away with it just through sheer discipline.
- 7:08Speaker 2: They did well. What really stands out is the preparation.
- 7:11Speaker 2: This was not some quick smashing grab.
- 7:13Speaker 1: No, the thieves had intimate inside knowledge of the building,
- 7:16Speaker 1: the routines, everything.
- 7:17Speaker 2: They weren't just watching from across the street. The sources
- 7:20Speaker 2: show they repeatedly entered the building covertly in the months
- 7:23Speaker 2: leading up to the heist.
- 7:24Speaker 1: Wait, they were just going in out of the building beforehand, yep.
- 7:27Speaker 2: And their goal wasn't just to scope it out. They
- 7:30Speaker 2: were actively compromising the security. They physically removed the lock
- 7:35Speaker 2: cylinders from five different.
- 7:36Speaker 1: Doors, including the main Print Street entrance.
- 7:39Speaker 2: Right. They took them to a key shop, had duplicate
- 7:41Speaker 2: keys made, and then put the original cylinders back.
- 7:44Speaker 1: That's not a robbery, that's a high stakes office invasion. Yeah,
- 7:48Speaker 1: the level of audacity is just chillin.
- 7:51Speaker 2: It shows you how confident they were and frankly, how
- 7:54Speaker 2: lacks the security procedures were at Brinks on the night
- 7:57Speaker 2: of the robbery, they just moved through the building with
- 7:59Speaker 2: total ease.
- 8:00Speaker 1: But even with such a high profile crime, the investigation
- 8:04Speaker 1: just hit a wall immediately.
- 8:06Speaker 2: It did few witnesses, no fingerprints, no hard evidence. The
- 8:10Speaker 2: FBI had to rely almost entirely on, you know, chasing
- 8:13Speaker 2: underworld rumors and trying to cultivate informance.
- 8:16Speaker 1: Which eventually led them to key figures like Anthony Pino
- 8:18Speaker 1: and Joseph SPEC's O'Keeffe. Right.
- 8:20Speaker 2: And it's interesting Pino was actually fighting deportation at the time,
- 8:23Speaker 2: but had managed to get a pardon from the acting
- 8:25Speaker 2: governor in nineteen forty nine. It shows you the kind
- 8:28Speaker 2: of political poll these guys had.
- 8:30Speaker 1: But the real breakthrough didn't come from brilliant detective work.
- 8:35Speaker 1: It came from the oldest story in the book for organized.
- 8:38Speaker 2: Crime, Internal Conflict, Greed, and Betrayal.
- 8:41Speaker 1: The crew had agreed to wait six years before spending
- 8:44Speaker 1: the money, right to let the heat die.
- 8:46Speaker 2: Dout exactly, but specs o'cuef. He ended up in jail
- 8:50Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania on some unrelated charges, and from inside he
- 8:54Speaker 2: starts hearing that his associates are breaking the pact, living
- 8:57Speaker 2: it up with the loot while he's stuck in his cell.
- 9:00Speaker 1: Spark this bitter resentment.
- 9:01Speaker 2: A profound resentment, and that resentment turned deadly when O'Keefe
- 9:05Speaker 2: survived an assassination attempt in June nineteen fifty.
- 9:09Speaker 1: Four, hired by his own associates to shut him up.
- 9:11Speaker 2: Allegedly yes, and that was it. The gang's loyalty was
- 9:15Speaker 2: completely fractured. O'Keeffe, after being arrested again on a pearl violation,
- 9:19Speaker 2: just decided he had nothing left.
- 9:21Speaker 1: To lose, so he became the star witness.
- 9:23Speaker 2: The principal witness before the Suffolk County Grand jury in
- 9:26Speaker 2: nineteen fifty six, and that led to indictments against eleven
- 9:29Speaker 2: members of the gang. It's a key insight for cold cases.
- 9:32Speaker 2: Sometimes the answer isn't in a lab, it's in a
- 9:34Speaker 2: relationship that finally breaks.
- 9:36Speaker 1: And the recovery of the loot itself is just a
- 9:39Speaker 1: fantastic story. It feels like something out of a movie.
- 9:42Speaker 2: It really does. So. In June nineteen fifty six, some
- 9:45Speaker 2: small time Boston hoodlam is passing a musty, worn out
- 9:50Speaker 2: ten dollars bill at an arcade in Baltimore.
- 9:54Speaker 1: And a local cop just happens to notice it.
- 9:56Speaker 2: Yeah, he notices the bill looks unusually old, like it's
- 9:58Speaker 2: been stored somewhere damp for a long long time. So
- 10:02Speaker 2: they checked the.
- 10:02Speaker 1: Serial numbers and it's a match.
- 10:04Speaker 2: A direct match to the brinksloot, and that one.
- 10:07Speaker 1: Ten dollars bill led them all the way back to.
- 10:09Speaker 2: Boston, right back to the office of one of the
- 10:12Speaker 2: po conspirators, a guy they called Fat John. They find
- 10:15Speaker 2: this hidden wall partition and behind it a picnic cooler
- 10:19Speaker 2: with over.
- 10:19Speaker 1: Fifty seven thousand dollars inside identified as Brins money.
- 10:23Speaker 2: A huge victory for sure. But here's the critical cold
- 10:26Speaker 2: case kicker and why the story still matters.
- 10:28Speaker 1: Most of the money was still gone.
- 10:30Speaker 2: Stone cold O'Keefe didn't know where the others hid their shares,
- 10:33Speaker 2: and the rest of the gang wasn't talking. More than
- 10:36Speaker 2: two point seven million dollars, including over a million in cash,
- 10:39Speaker 2: just vanished into thin air.
- 10:41Speaker 1: The criminal case was closed, but the asset trail was completely.
- 10:44Speaker 2: Cold, and it still is.
- 10:46Speaker 1: All right, let's move forward to nineteen eighty two. We're
- 10:48Speaker 1: looking at a case that's a total failure in terms
- 10:53Speaker 1: of criminal closure, but an unparalleled success in systemic policy reform.
- 10:59Speaker 1: The Island All murders.
- 11:01Speaker 2: This tragedy just redefined public health safety in America. It
- 11:05Speaker 2: started when Thailand all capsules in the Chicago area were
- 11:08Speaker 2: laced with potassium cyanide.
- 11:10Speaker 1: Resulting in the horrifying deaths of at least seven people.
- 11:13Speaker 2: The investigation became this frantic multi agency effort. They were
- 11:16Speaker 2: finding tampered bottles in different stores, different distribution centers. It
- 11:20Speaker 2: was chaos.
- 11:21Speaker 1: And here's the enduring failure of this case. Four decades later,
- 11:25Speaker 1: no one has ever been charged or convicted of the poisonings.
- 11:28Speaker 2: Not for the murders themselves. The closest they ever got
- 11:30Speaker 2: to any kind of justice was convicting a man named
- 11:33Speaker 2: James William Lewis for extortion.
- 11:35Speaker 1: He sent a letter to Johnson and Johnson demanding a
- 11:37Speaker 1: million dollars to stop the killings right.
- 11:39Speaker 2: He served time for that, but years later when they
- 11:41Speaker 2: tested his DNA against samples from the tainted bottles, there
- 11:45Speaker 2: was no match.
- 11:45Speaker 1: No, he wasn't the guy, it seems not.
- 11:47Speaker 2: They even looked at Ted Kasinski the unobomber, given the
- 11:51Speaker 2: timing and his proximity to Chicago, but he denied having
- 11:54Speaker 2: cyanide and the evidence was purely circumstantial.
- 11:57Speaker 1: It's one of the most persistent puzzles in FB history,
- 12:00Speaker 1: and they tried some really innovative tactics at the time.
- 12:03Speaker 2: They did in an early attempt at psychological profiling, they
- 12:07Speaker 2: asked a prominent Chicago columnist to publish the address and
- 12:10Speaker 2: grave location of the first victim, a little girl named
- 12:14Speaker 2: Mary Kellerman.
- 12:15Speaker 1: The idea being that the killer might be drawn back
- 12:17Speaker 1: to the.
- 12:17Speaker 2: Site exactly, driven by guilt or a need to relive
- 12:21Speaker 2: the crime. They wanted to surveil the location, but the
- 12:24Speaker 2: killer never.
- 12:24Speaker 1: Showed up, So a total failure on the criminal side.
- 12:29Speaker 1: But the structural and policy impact that followed was just
- 12:32Speaker 1: It was monumental.
- 12:33Speaker 2: Absolutely driven by Johnson and Johnson's response, they immediately issued warnings,
- 12:37Speaker 2: a nationwide recall of thirty one million bottles of tailanol.
- 12:41Speaker 1: That's one hundred million dollar decision in retail value at
- 12:44Speaker 1: the time.
- 12:44Speaker 2: An enormous corporate decision that really set a new gold
- 12:47Speaker 2: standard for crisis management. They basically saved the brand by
- 12:51Speaker 2: prioritizing public safety over profit.
- 12:53Speaker 1: And the legacy is something we see every single day
- 12:57Speaker 1: in every pharmacy.
- 12:58Speaker 2: It is. This case led to directly to the end
- 13:00Speaker 2: of powder filled capsules for over the counter drugs. It
- 13:04Speaker 2: mandated the creation of tamper evident packaging the seals and
- 13:08Speaker 2: containers we all take for granted.
- 13:10Speaker 1: Now, and it led to federal anti tampering laws. So
- 13:14Speaker 1: a failure in justice led to this sweeping success in public.
- 13:17Speaker 2: Safety, and law enforcement's persistence here is also really notable.
- 13:21Speaker 2: This is a cold case that never really freezes over.
- 13:24Speaker 2: They renewed the investigation in two thousand and nine. They've
- 13:27Speaker 2: collected DNA from persons of interest as recently as twenty
- 13:30Speaker 2: twenty two. Evidence has been resubmitted for modern forensic testing.
- 13:34Speaker 2: It's still an active case.
- 13:36Speaker 1: That historical context is so important. It shows how these crises,
- 13:39Speaker 1: you know, from sabotage to product tampering, they really forced
- 13:42Speaker 1: law enforcement to evolve. So let's bring that forward to
- 13:44Speaker 1: today's landscape. Okay, when we say cold case, we usually
- 13:47Speaker 1: picture some dusty old murder file. But the modern definition
- 13:50Speaker 1: is actually much broader, isn't it.
- 13:52Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, The experts, like Detective Sergeant Jason Moran, they're
- 13:56Speaker 2: very clear on this. A cold case today isn't just
- 13:59Speaker 2: an old unsolved murder. It includes missing persons, unidentified bodies,
- 14:04Speaker 2: undetermined deaths, and criminal sexual assaults as long.
- 14:07Speaker 1: As the initial investigation has exhausted all its leads.
- 14:10Speaker 2: Right, and the scale of this problem is, it's just sobering.
- 14:15Speaker 2: The sources estimate that roughly forty percent of US homicides
- 14:18Speaker 2: between nineteen eighty and twenty sixteen are still unsolved.
- 14:21Speaker 1: That's an estimated two hundred and forty two thousand cases.
- 14:24Speaker 1: A stunning number, it is.
- 14:25Speaker 2: And it necessitates a structured approach. There's this moral imperative
- 14:28Speaker 2: that Moran talks about. Agencies have to bring these cases
- 14:31Speaker 2: to a contemporary status. An old victim is, in his words,
- 14:35Speaker 2: no less important than a new one.
- 14:37Speaker 1: So let's break down the key strategies that successful agencies
- 14:40Speaker 1: are using today to get clearances. The first one is
- 14:43Speaker 1: all about technology.
- 14:44Speaker 2: Number one is leverage forensic science and technology. It's pretty straightforward.
- 14:48Speaker 2: You pull old evidence that came back with no hits
- 14:50Speaker 2: years ago, and you resubmit.
- 14:52Speaker 1: It because today's DNA testing is just exponentially more sensitive.
- 14:56Speaker 2: Exactly, a sample that was too small or too degraded
- 14:59Speaker 2: fifteen years ago might yield a full profile today. This
- 15:02Speaker 2: also means using resources like namius for missing persons, facial recognition,
- 15:07Speaker 2: and of course the big one, forensic genealogy.
- 15:09Speaker 1: And the next couple of points are more about organization.
- 15:12Speaker 1: Organize information logically and encourage interagency communication.
- 15:17Speaker 2: The communication piece is so critical, especially for serial cases.
- 15:21Speaker 2: If you don't have systems for sharing intelligence across county
- 15:24Speaker 2: and state lines, you just miss the patterns that link
- 15:27Speaker 2: what seemed to be isolated crimes.
- 15:29Speaker 1: And the fourth is a surprisingly human one, a new
- 15:32Speaker 1: set of eyes.
- 15:33Speaker 2: I love this one. It's so important. Cold cases oftenstall
- 15:37Speaker 2: because the original investigators just get too close to the material.
- 15:40Speaker 2: They develop tunnel vision, a fresh perspective someone new coming
- 15:43Speaker 2: in can be crucial for spotting those missed connections.
- 15:46Speaker 1: And the fifth is maybe the hardest one.
- 15:48Speaker 2: Persistence it is it's about resources. It's the simple but
- 15:52Speaker 2: constant act of reviewing cases, resubmitting evidence as technology improves,
- 15:57Speaker 2: and just making sure everything is entered into the national
- 16:00Speaker 2: databases correctly. Without that, a solvable case just sits there cold.
- 16:05Speaker 1: This leads us right to the specialized units that define
- 16:08Speaker 1: the modern landscape, specifically the FBI's Behavioral Analysis Unit, the BAU.
- 16:14Speaker 2: The DAU has been around since nineteen seventy two, originally
- 16:17Speaker 2: as the Behavioral Science Unit. What they do what people
- 16:20Speaker 2: used to call criminal profiling, has evolved into what's now
- 16:23Speaker 2: called criminal investigative analysis.
- 16:26Speaker 1: And their core functions are pretty extensive. They consult on
- 16:29Speaker 1: complex violent cases, providing analysis on what motivation, victim selection,
- 16:33Speaker 1: sequence of events.
- 16:34Speaker 2: All of that. They also help develop airview strategies using
- 16:37Speaker 2: behavioral science to guide interrogations, and they offer investigative strategy
- 16:41Speaker 2: which helps local agencies prioritize where to spend their very
- 16:44Speaker 2: limited resources.
- 16:46Speaker 1: In Central to all of this is ViCAP.
- 16:48Speaker 2: ViCAP the Violent Criminal Apprehension Program. It was set up
- 16:51Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty five, and it's not just a database.
- 16:54Speaker 2: It's the nation's central repository for all these violent crime
- 16:57Speaker 2: cases homicide, sexual assaults, missing person.
- 17:00Speaker 1: And its main job is to facilitate case linkage to find.
- 17:03Speaker 2: The patterns precisely. It helps investigators see the mo of victimology,
- 17:08Speaker 2: the geography, all the little details that might suggest a
- 17:11Speaker 2: single serial offender is operating across multiple jurisdictions. It's the
- 17:16Speaker 2: engine that links cold cases together.
- 17:18Speaker 1: And this is a good point to talk about how
- 17:20Speaker 1: the field itself has changed. For years, the public was
- 17:23Speaker 1: obsessed with the idea of the organized versus disorganized killer.
- 17:28Speaker 2: Thanks to pop culture. Yes, it was a neat little narrative,
- 17:30Speaker 2: but the FBI's National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime,
- 17:33Speaker 2: the NCVC, has pretty much abandoned that approach.
- 17:36Speaker 1: So that distinction. Was it ever really practical for solving cases.
- 17:40Speaker 1: It always felt like it was trying to shove incredibly
- 17:43Speaker 1: complex human behavior into one of two boxes.
- 17:46Speaker 2: And that's exactly why it was so limited. The NCAAVC
- 17:49Speaker 2: hasn't used that typology for over ten years because very
- 17:52Speaker 2: few offenders fit neatly into one box. Most show traits
- 17:56Speaker 2: of both depending on the circumstances, and.
- 17:58Speaker 1: The original research they those types was flawed.
- 18:01Speaker 2: Right deeply flawed. It had sampling biases, it relied way
- 18:05Speaker 2: too heavily on self reported accounts from convicted killers who
- 18:10Speaker 2: might lie, and it used really small sample sizes, it
- 18:13Speaker 2: just wasn't reliable for active cases. It sent investigators down
- 18:17Speaker 2: these blind alleys.
- 18:18Speaker 1: So instead of these abstract psychological profile the modern approach
- 18:21Speaker 1: is to focus on observable, quantifiable crime scene actions.
- 18:26Speaker 2: Right, and the new framework they use is much more practical.
- 18:28Speaker 2: It's based on body disposal pathways.
- 18:30Speaker 1: So just focusing on what the perpetrator physically did with
- 18:33Speaker 1: the victims.
- 18:34Speaker 2: Of body exactly, it's observable. It provides spatial data. Based
- 18:38Speaker 2: on a big analysis of hundreds of cases, they identified
- 18:41Speaker 2: four distinct pathways, and each one offers clues about the
- 18:44Speaker 2: offender's mindset, their risk tolerance, maybe even where they live.
- 18:47Speaker 1: Okay, let's break those down.
- 18:48Speaker 2: First, you have transported from the murder site and concealed.
- 18:52Speaker 2: That's about nineteen percent of cases. This takes planning. It
- 18:55Speaker 2: suggests the offender is confident and might live near either
- 18:59Speaker 2: the murder site or the disposal site.
- 19:01Speaker 1: Then you have transported from the murder site and.
- 19:03Speaker 2: Dumped a bit more common, about twenty five percent. Here
- 19:06Speaker 2: the body is moved but left openly, which suggests the
- 19:09Speaker 2: offender is confident, there's no link between them and the victim,
- 19:12Speaker 2: or they just ran out of time or nerve to hide.
- 19:14Speaker 1: It okay, And the most common one.
- 19:17Speaker 2: Left as is at the murder site. That's almost forty
- 19:20Speaker 2: four percent of cases. The murder and disposal happened in
- 19:23Speaker 2: the same spot, no concealment. This often points to impulsivity
- 19:27Speaker 2: or maybe an intimate relationship where the killer felt comfortable
- 19:30Speaker 2: leaving the body in a known space.
- 19:32Speaker 1: And the last one is the rarest left at.
- 19:35Speaker 2: The murder site and concealed only about six percent. This
- 19:38Speaker 2: was mostly seen in offenders who were learning or adapting
- 19:41Speaker 2: their methods over time.
- 19:42Speaker 1: This all feels so much more actionable for law enforcement,
- 19:46Speaker 1: but behavior analysis also gets into victimology, and this is
- 19:49Speaker 1: where we have to talk about the really difficult human
- 19:52Speaker 1: side of it all. The concept of victim risk victim risk.
- 19:55Speaker 2: Levels low, moderate, high are determined by looking at an
- 19:59Speaker 2: individ us lifestyle, their habits, their neighborhood. It helps investigators
- 20:03Speaker 2: understand what might have increased their probability of being victimized.
- 20:07Speaker 1: But let's look at the dark side of that, the
- 20:09Speaker 1: idea of the ideal victim. Is it really true that
- 20:13Speaker 1: police priorities can shift based on things like media pressure
- 20:16Speaker 1: or public sympathy.
- 20:18Speaker 2: It's a harsh reality, but the data suggests it's true.
- 20:21Speaker 2: The sources highlight that marginalized groups like female sex workers,
- 20:24Speaker 2: face homicide rates eighteen times higher than other women eighteen
- 20:28Speaker 2: times yet because of social stigmas, they are often considered
- 20:31Speaker 2: quote non ideal victims.
- 20:33Speaker 1: And that has a direct impact on resource allocation.
- 20:36Speaker 2: It does. The research indicates police might put more resources
- 20:39Speaker 2: into cases involving high status or ideal victims, maybe because
- 20:43Speaker 2: of media coverage or public outcry, and that disparity is
- 20:46Speaker 2: a huge reason why cases involving marginalized people go cold
- 20:50Speaker 2: in the first place.
- 20:51Speaker 1: The stats also show that Clarence odds are higher for
- 20:53Speaker 1: younger victims, white victims, victims in a relationship. It's a
- 20:57Speaker 1: really sobering thought that social perception directly influences the likelihood
- 21:02Speaker 1: of getting justice.
- 21:03Speaker 2: It reinforces the idea that structural bias, even if it's unintentional,
- 21:07Speaker 2: creates cold cases.
- 21:08Speaker 1: Okay, so now we shift from behavioral science to the
- 21:11Speaker 1: hard science. The technological revolution that has completely transformed cold casework,
- 21:16Speaker 1: and the absolute backbone of this entire system is CODIS.
- 21:20Speaker 2: CODIS is the gold standard, the combined DNA index system.
- 21:24Speaker 2: It started as a pilot project back in nineteen ninety
- 21:27Speaker 2: and was formally established as the National DNA Index System
- 21:30Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety four. It's massive, well.
- 21:32Speaker 1: Over one hundred and ninety public labs in the US
- 21:33Speaker 1: participate plus international.
- 21:35Speaker 2: Labs exactly, and its power has just grown and grown.
- 21:38Speaker 2: When it started, it used thirteen core str.
- 21:41Speaker 1: Low SI short tandem repeats the parts of our DNA
- 21:44Speaker 1: that vary a lot between.
- 21:45Speaker 2: People, and that number is always being expanded to increased discrimination.
- 21:49Speaker 2: Since twenty seventeen they require an additional seven low size,
- 21:52Speaker 2: so you're looking at twenty or more markers. This is
- 21:55Speaker 2: huge for getting more precise matches and for sharing data internationally.
- 21:59Speaker 1: The future of CODIS is all about enhancing kinship analysis.
- 22:03Speaker 1: What does that mean for cold cases?
- 22:05Speaker 2: It means making the system better at identifying missing persons
- 22:09Speaker 2: through partial matches like finding a missing child based on
- 22:13Speaker 2: a parent's DNA, And of course, quality control is paramount.
- 22:16Speaker 2: Every lab has to follow these incredibly strict standards to
- 22:19Speaker 2: maintain the integrity of the whole system.
- 22:22Speaker 1: So CODIS is the official federally regulated structure. But that
- 22:26Speaker 1: regulation is what brings us to the biggest game changer
- 22:29Speaker 1: of the last decade, which operates mostly outside.
- 22:32Speaker 2: Of CODIS Forensic Genetic Genealogy FGGS, right, and.
- 22:35Speaker 1: The difference in power between the two is just staggering.
- 22:38Speaker 2: It really is. Traditional CODIS searching uses those twenty somethingter
- 22:42Speaker 2: STR markers. If a crime scene sample doesn't get a
- 22:46Speaker 2: direct hit in the criminal database, well you're at a
- 22:49Speaker 2: dead end within the government system.
- 22:51Speaker 1: But that's where if GGS comes in. Explain the technical
- 22:54Speaker 1: difference for us, because this is why it's so revolutionary.
- 22:57Speaker 2: It's a huge distinction. STRs are rate for a one
- 23:00Speaker 2: to one match, like a high tech fingerprint, but they're
- 23:03Speaker 2: not great for showing familial relationships beyond a parent or sibling. FGGS,
- 23:08Speaker 2: on the other hand, uses private labs to analyze over
- 23:12Speaker 2: half a million SNPs.
- 23:13Speaker 1: Single nucleotide polymorphisms, so half a million markers versus twenty.
- 23:18Speaker 2: Exactly, it's an exponential difference. SNPs are single base pair
- 23:22Speaker 2: variations in your genome. By comparing hundreds of thousands of them,
- 23:26Speaker 2: the software can detect these incredibly small shared blocks of DNA,
- 23:30Speaker 2: and those shared blocks are what you use to infer
- 23:32Speaker 2: family relationships even out to a third, fourth, or fifth cousin.
- 23:35Speaker 1: So the process is you take the crime scene DNA,
- 23:38Speaker 1: generate this huge SMP profile, and then you search it
- 23:41Speaker 1: in a public database.
- 23:42Speaker 2: Not a government database. No, you search it in public
- 23:45Speaker 2: open data, personal genomics databases like ged match, or direct
- 23:49Speaker 2: to consumer services that allow law enforcement access. The algorithm
- 23:53Speaker 2: finds a distant relative and.
- 23:55Speaker 1: Then the genealogists get to work building a family tree
- 23:58Speaker 1: backwards until they narrow it down to a single suspect.
- 24:01Speaker 2: That's the genealogy part. The poster child for this, of course,
- 24:04Speaker 2: is the identification of California's Golden State Killer in twenty eighteen.
- 24:08Speaker 2: It took a decades old impossible case and made it solvable,
- 24:13Speaker 2: all because a distant relative uploaded their DNA to a
- 24:16Speaker 2: website and we.
- 24:17Speaker 1: Can connect this right back to the Tailenyl murders. They're
- 24:19Speaker 1: using this technology now absolutely.
- 24:21Speaker 2: When state crime labs hit their limit, agencies are turning
- 24:25Speaker 2: to specialized private companies like Authrum. They're working on the
- 24:28Speaker 2: Tailenol evidence right now, and.
- 24:30Speaker 1: Authorum specializes in getting DNA from tiny or degraded samples.
- 24:34Speaker 2: Right They can analyze profiles from a sample smaller than
- 24:37Speaker 2: the head of a pin, even if the evidence has
- 24:39Speaker 2: been handled a thousand times or sat in an evidence
- 24:42Speaker 2: locker for forty years.
- 24:43Speaker 1: That's why these cases are never truly cold anymore. If
- 24:46Speaker 1: biological evidence exists, there's always a chance.
- 24:49Speaker 2: Always. But the very success of FGGS and the fact
- 24:54Speaker 2: that it relies on consumer data creates this massive tension.
- 24:58Speaker 2: It's the double edged sword of this technology.
- 25:01Speaker 1: It brings us right back to structural roadblocks, but this
- 25:04Speaker 1: time they're not from a lack of law, but from
- 25:06Speaker 1: competing laws and policies about privacy.
- 25:09Speaker 2: This is hugely controversial. A lot of people who uploaded
- 25:12Speaker 2: their DNA to a genealogy service did it to find
- 25:15Speaker 2: their great ant, not to unwittingly join a massive, unregulated police.
- 25:19Speaker 1: Database, and some states are starting to legislate this correct.
- 25:22Speaker 2: States like Maryland and Utah are trying to draw clear
- 25:25Speaker 2: lines to restrict how law enforcement can use these consumer
- 25:28Speaker 2: genetic services.
- 25:29Speaker 1: And this controversy is perfectly reflected in the FBI's own
- 25:32Speaker 1: policy for its official database CODIS.
- 25:35Speaker 2: The FBI is crystal clear on this familial searching is
- 25:38Speaker 2: not conducted at the federal level within CODIS. This is
- 25:41Speaker 2: a major structural limitation they've chosen to impose on themselves.
- 25:44Speaker 1: So even if the government database could potentially point to
- 25:47Speaker 1: a killer's brother or father. They choose not to look.
- 25:51Speaker 2: That's the ethical line they won't cross with CODIS to
- 25:54Speaker 2: protect civil liberties. But the Department of Justice has an
- 25:57Speaker 2: interim policy for the private sphere for FGGS. It requires investigators, labs,
- 26:03Speaker 2: and prosecutors to all work together.
- 26:05Speaker 1: And there's a crucial safeguard. A suspect cannot be arrested
- 26:10Speaker 1: just because of a distant genetic match from a genealogy site.
- 26:13Speaker 2: That's right. The genetic let is only a tip. You
- 26:15Speaker 2: still have to get a new DNA sample from the
- 26:18Speaker 2: suspect and confirm it with traditional str typing through CODIS
- 26:22Speaker 2: to prove it in court.
- 26:23Speaker 1: And there's a legal firewall, a hard firewall.
- 26:26Speaker 2: The policy says FGGS profiles and data from commercial services
- 26:30Speaker 2: cannot be uploaded, searched, or kept in any CODIS index.
- 26:33Speaker 2: They are keeping those two worlds completely separate to protect
- 26:36Speaker 2: that privacy line.
- 26:37Speaker 1: That tension between technology that gives you almost godlike investigative
- 26:42Speaker 1: power and the policy designed to protect our fundamental liberties.
- 26:45Speaker 1: That is the defining story of modern cold case work.
- 26:48Speaker 2: It really is.
- 26:49Speaker 1: So we've established that technology can solve old mysteries. It
- 26:52Speaker 1: can identify perpetrators, but identifying the killer doesn't always mean
- 26:55Speaker 1: you get justice.
- 26:57Speaker 2: And this brings us to that crucial distinction between a
- 26:59Speaker 2: case that is investigatively solved we know who did it,
- 27:03Speaker 2: and one that is legally unsolved or unprosecutable.
- 27:07Speaker 1: A structural roadblock where the facts are known, but the
- 27:10Speaker 1: legal framework just prevents any kind of punitive action. We
- 27:13Speaker 1: see this so clearly in the Civil Rights Cold Case Initiative.
- 27:17Speaker 2: This was launched by the FBI and DOJ back in
- 27:19Speaker 2: two thousand and six, formalized by the Emmett Till Act,
- 27:22Speaker 2: and the law mandates the investigation of these old civil
- 27:25Speaker 2: rights violations that resulted in death before nineteen seventy nine.
- 27:29Speaker 1: It was this necessary acknowledgment of historical systemic failure where
- 27:33Speaker 1: local justices often protected perpetrators. But it runs headfirst into
- 27:38Speaker 1: a huge legal barrier.
- 27:39Speaker 2: The statute of limitations.
- 27:41Speaker 1: Right, for anyone listening, can you just define that clearly?
- 27:43Speaker 1: Why is it such a problem here?
- 27:44Speaker 2: The Statute of limitations just sets the maximum time after
- 27:47Speaker 2: a crime within which you can start legal proceedings. It
- 27:50Speaker 2: exists for fairness. Over time, evidence is lost, memories fade
- 27:55Speaker 2: you can't ask someone to defend themselves against a charge
- 27:57Speaker 2: decades later, and for many federal crime time that window
- 28:00Speaker 2: is just five years.
- 28:02Speaker 1: The case of Emmett Till, murdered in nineteen fifty five
- 28:05Speaker 1: is the perfect tragic illustration. His killers were acquitted by
- 28:09Speaker 1: an all white jury and then later confessed in gruesome
- 28:11Speaker 1: detail to a magazine.
- 28:13Speaker 2: But when the FBI reopened the case under the new law,
- 28:16Speaker 2: they confirmed the legal barrier. The five year statute of
- 28:19Speaker 2: limitations for any federal civil rights violation had expired decades ago,
- 28:24Speaker 2: and both killers were already dead.
- 28:27Speaker 1: So the case is solved, but legally it's dead.
- 28:30Speaker 2: And this force is a fundamental shift in the government's goal.
- 28:33Speaker 2: The DOJ openly acknowledges that few, if any, of these
- 28:37Speaker 2: hundreds of cases will ever be prosecutable.
- 28:39Speaker 1: So the goal shifts away from punitive justice entirely.
- 28:42Speaker 2: It moves toward restorative justice, seeking historical truth, documenting the
- 28:46Speaker 2: failures of the past, acknowledging the families, and just making
- 28:49Speaker 2: sure the historical record is accurate even if no one
- 28:51Speaker 2: can go to jail.
- 28:52Speaker 1: And this isn't just limited to civil rights cases. The
- 28:55Speaker 1: statute of limitations also defines the saga of the largest
- 28:58Speaker 1: property crime in US history, the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum heist.
- 29:02Speaker 2: A classic example the theft of thirteen priceless works of
- 29:06Speaker 2: art in Boston in nineteen ninety. The FBI announced in
- 29:10Speaker 2: twenty thirteen that they knew who did it. They've identified
- 29:12Speaker 2: the thieves.
- 29:13Speaker 1: But the statute of limitations for the theft itself expired
- 29:17Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety five, just five years after the crime.
- 29:21Speaker 2: So because criminal prosecution is impossible, the entire investigative strategy
- 29:25Speaker 2: has shifted to asset retrieval. That's it. The only goal
- 29:28Speaker 2: left is getting the art back. The museum offers a
- 29:31Speaker 2: ten million dollar reward and prosecutors promise not to prosecute
- 29:35Speaker 2: anyone who returns the items.
- 29:37Speaker 1: It's this irreconcilable gap where the facts are known but
- 29:40Speaker 1: legal punishment is just completely impossible.
- 29:43Speaker 2: A similar thing happened with Felix Block, a diplomat suspected
- 29:46Speaker 2: of Cold War espionage in nineteen eighty nine. The circumstantial
- 29:49Speaker 2: evidence was damning meetings with a KGB spy a mysterious
- 29:53Speaker 2: black bag, but they never recovered the bag. Without that
- 29:56Speaker 2: material evidence, proving guilt in court.
- 29:58Speaker 1: Was just too difficult, so the case is unre though
- 30:00Speaker 1: he did lose his job and his pension.
- 30:02Speaker 2: Right. It shows that even the most sophisticated investigation can
- 30:06Speaker 2: still be defeated by a calendar or a missing piece
- 30:08Speaker 2: of evidence, which brings us.
- 30:09Speaker 1: To the last really pragmatic question, what actually predicts success
- 30:15Speaker 1: when a cold case is reopened.
- 30:17Speaker 2: Well, a study that analyzed this found it all comes
- 30:20Speaker 2: down to tangible leads. The biggest predictors of clearance are
- 30:23Speaker 2: either new information from witnesses or informants who finally decide
- 30:27Speaker 2: to talk, or the availability of new physical evidence like
- 30:31Speaker 2: DNA or fingerprints that can be tested with modern tech.
- 30:34Speaker 1: In cases that are reopened just because of a family
- 30:37Speaker 1: request or routine protocol, While that's important for restorative justice,
- 30:42Speaker 1: they have a much lower chance of being cleared.
- 30:44Speaker 2: It shows that successful outcomes are lead driven, not mandate driven,
- 30:49Speaker 2: and when you look specifically at DNA hit cases and
- 30:51Speaker 2: sexual assaults, the odds of a conviction go way up
- 30:55Speaker 2: if a few factors align.
- 30:56Speaker 1: Victim has to be willing to cooperate, they can't have
- 30:58Speaker 1: a criminal record, the attacker was a stranger.
- 31:01Speaker 2: Right, all things that strengthen the case in court, but
- 31:03Speaker 2: one finding was really surprising.
- 31:05Speaker 1: The timing of the report.
- 31:06Speaker 2: Yeah, conviction odds are actually lessened when a victim reports
- 31:10Speaker 2: the assault after the day it occurred, which suggests that
- 31:13Speaker 2: even with ironclad DNA evidence from a database hit, the
- 31:16Speaker 2: timing of the report still influences a jury.
- 31:19Speaker 1: And finally, success nearly always comes down to collaboration, high.
- 31:23Speaker 2: Level collaboration, assigning senior investigators, giving them full access to databases,
- 31:28Speaker 2: and critically working with outside experts academics, journalists, forensic specialists.
- 31:33Speaker 1: It brings in that new set of eyes.
- 31:35Speaker 2: Exactly, and it means investigators have to work closely with
- 31:38Speaker 2: prosecutors from the very beginning to figure out which cases
- 31:41Speaker 2: aren't just solvable, but are actually prosecutable.
- 31:44Speaker 1: We have covered a huge amount of ground today on
- 31:46Speaker 1: beyond infographics. We've gone from the policy vacuum that allowed
- 31:51Speaker 1: the Black Tom explosion to the public safety successes that
- 31:55Speaker 1: came out of the tile All murders, and all.
- 31:56Speaker 2: The way to today where we see this intense tension
- 31:59Speaker 2: between hutting edge technology and these self imposed policy constraints.
- 32:03Speaker 1: Yeah, we have tools like forendic genetic genealogy that can
- 32:06Speaker 1: trace a killer through a distant relative but the federal
- 32:09Speaker 1: government maintains a strict firewall. It prohibits familial searching in
- 32:13Speaker 1: its own codeis database to protect civil liberties.
- 32:16Speaker 2: And then you have the cases that are conceptually solved
- 32:18Speaker 2: but legally dead. The Gardner heist thieves are known, but
- 32:22Speaker 2: the statute of limitations is long past, so the goal
- 32:25Speaker 2: shifts from justice to retrieval.
- 32:27Speaker 1: The core distinction remains paramount cases that are investigatively solved
- 32:32Speaker 1: versus those that are legally unsolved or just plain unprosecutable.
- 32:36Speaker 2: It's the central challenge.
- 32:38Speaker 1: So that leaves us with a final provocative thought for
- 32:40Speaker 1: you to consider. Given that the ultimate goal here isn't
- 32:43Speaker 1: just solving a puzzle for the history books, but about
- 32:46Speaker 1: conviction and protecting society, should we as a society maybe
- 32:51Speaker 1: reconsider the legal framework that gives a crime a life span.
- 32:54Speaker 2: It's a huge question. Should policymakers think about perpetual statutes
- 32:58Speaker 2: of limitations for crimes of high national significance like the
- 33:01Speaker 2: Gardener hest to prioritize accountability long after the normal legal
- 33:06Speaker 2: window closes.
- 33:07Speaker 1: Or on the other side, should the federal policy on
- 33:10Speaker 1: familial DNA searching within CODIS be re examined when public
- 33:14Speaker 1: safety is clearly at stake. Does the potential for justice
- 33:18Speaker 1: outweigh the current focus on civil liberty concerns in those
- 33:21Speaker 1: government databases.
- 33:22Speaker 2: It's the ultimate debate between safety and privacy played out
- 33:25Speaker 2: across hundreds of thousands of cold cases.
- 33:28Speaker 1: Something for you to mull over until our next beyond infographics.
- 33:31Speaker 1: Thank you for diving deep with us.