Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Joe Burnett | Bitcoin's Power Law | Simply Bitcoin IRL

Transcript

Joe Burnett | Bitcoin's Power Law | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Hello everybody, welcome to another episode of Simply
0:03
Bitcoin IRL. Today we have a very special
0:06
guest. We have Joe Burnett. Joe
0:08
Burnett works at Unchained and he also has a pretty
0:13
awesome YouTube channel, which I'm a pretty big fan
0:16
of and dropping some really, really good content
0:19
over there. You can go follow it, youtube
0:21
.com slash at Joe Burnett 27. I
0:24
think he does like a couple minute videos every
0:26
single day and they're really, really awesome. So,
0:28
big fan of his content. Also,
0:30
when he was part of Blockware, that was really,
0:32
really cool. So excited to have him on the
0:35
show today. But before we jump into it, I
0:37
do want to give a shout out to the Bitcoin company
0:39
that powers this show. Make Simply Bitcoin IRL possible.
0:42
And of course, I'm talking
0:43
about Bitcoin Well. Bitcoin Well is the best place to
0:45
build your automatic self custody Bitcoin stack. Self
0:48
custody by default, future proof, your money, enable
0:51
independence via bitcoinwell .com slash simply. It's
0:56
the first on ramp, bitcoin on ramp in the United
1:00
States that is self custody by default. What
1:02
does that mean? That means that if you buy
1:04
bitcoin on Bitcoin Well, you have to take self
1:07
custody, which perfectly aligns with the Simply
1:09
Bitcoin ethos of the separation of money and
1:12
state. After all, self custody is the
1:14
revolution. All right, no more delay. I
1:16
do want to bring up Joe on stage. Let's
1:20
bring up Joe. Thank you so much for joining us
1:23
today on Simply Bitcoin IRL. Like
1:26
I was fanboying a little bit. You've
1:30
been dropping some really high quality content, man,
1:33
on your own personal YouTube channel. You've
1:36
been covering some specific subjects. Some
1:40
have popped off. Some go a little bit sideways.
1:42
I know how content creation
1:43
goes. So how are you doing, man?
1:46
Good. Thanks for having me on
1:48
the show and appreciate it. I
1:50
mean, I try to make videos that help people understand
1:53
Bitcoin and spread Bitcoin adoption. So
1:56
happy to be here. Yeah, absolutely. So
1:58
how long have you been making content? That's
2:04
a good question. I mean, I started my Twitter
2:06
account like probably back in like 2018, 2019. And
2:11
I think that's how I kind of like started creating
2:14
content and like started to like be a voice and
2:16
somewhat of a voice in the space. I
2:18
just started writing Twitter threads during the whole
2:21
bear market and then especially at the bottom of
2:23
the 2018, 2019 bear market because I had discovered
2:26
Bitcoin in 2017. And you know, just going
2:29
through the whole bear market, I was like, price
2:31
keeps going down, but I still feel like there's
2:33
something here. Like I still feel like we're
2:35
right about Bitcoin and just kept writing threads.
2:38
And that's about when it all
2:39
started and never really stopped writing various
2:42
things and making videos now about Bitcoin. Nice.
2:45
Nice. So I do want to kind of
2:49
address the elephant in the room, which is breaking
2:51
news. The DOJ has formally indicted
2:56
and arrested the founding members of Samurai Wallet.
3:00
And this is pretty crazy. I
3:02
think it's kind of like an escalation on the war of
3:04
war on privacy, something that we've been covering
3:07
for over a year now on Simply Bitcoin when they
3:10
first indicted the tornado cash developer in my belief
3:14
that kind of set a precedent towards kind of
3:17
the demonization of privacy. And
3:20
now they've really escalated. A
3:21
lot of people weren't paying attention to tornado
3:23
cash because it kind of related to an open like to
3:28
an altcoin. But we were making the case on
3:30
Simply Bitcoin that, hey, look, this is the first
3:33
time in US history where the Treasury Department is
3:36
literally sanctioning an open source software and
3:40
fast forward a year later. Here
3:42
we are. You know, this is a major this
3:44
is a major attack on Bitcoin in my personal
3:48
opinion. Definitely a major attack on privacy.
3:51
It's my fundamental belief that
3:53
if you can't have freedom without privacy and I think
3:57
that this is where we are in the movie, one to two
4:01
to three years down the road, inevitably they're
4:03
going to go after self custody. That's
4:05
the that's the next step. So
4:06
if we don't hold the line here and we don't make our
4:09
voices heard, I think things could get a little
4:12
bit precarious here specifically in the United
4:14
States. What are your thoughts, Joe?
4:16
Yeah, I mean, I'm thinking back
4:18
to like some of the founding fathers of America,
4:22
you know, had pseudonyms writing, you know, for
4:25
freedom and liberty. And so, yeah, I think, you
4:28
know, Bitcoin is freedom money and, you know, it
4:33
should be free. I don't think like if, you
4:35
know, America really does start to crack down on on
4:39
privacy or, you know, Bitcoin self custody in any
4:42
serious way. I don't think that's like a
4:43
long term threat to Bitcoin. I
4:46
think it's a long term threat probably to like the
4:49
future of America would be like America, you know,
4:51
banning the internet at like North Korea or
4:53
something like that. So I don't think that that's
4:56
the right path to go down. I
4:58
haven't read too much about this specific indictment.
5:01
I've been in calls all day, but
5:03
it's from what I've heard, it doesn't seem great. And
5:06
I think, you know, you know, big, big corner
5:08
should be pro freedom and pro privacy. And
5:10
I think that's, you know, good for Bitcoin if, you
5:14
know, more people can easily be free and easily
5:17
be private. Yeah, and I agree. And
5:20
I think it's it's all you can make the case that
5:22
it's it's like a necessity also. But
5:26
there's there's been so many regulatory attacks. You
5:30
know, the last six to nine months with this current
5:33
administration, right? The so -called Operation Choke
5:36
Point 2 .0, the Wall Street Journal article that was
5:40
used by Elizabeth Warren and Co. to
5:43
put pressure on the FinCEN and the Treasury to
5:45
introduce more kind of like hostile Bitcoin regulations
5:50
circumventing the legislative process using the Patriot
5:53
Act. And of course, Elizabeth
5:55
Warren's infamous bill that's currently in the
5:58
Senate that has 20 senators, including two
6:00
Republicans, I might add, that would be to use
6:03
Pierre Richard's own words, not mine, a de facto ban
6:06
on the Bitcoin mining industry in the United
6:08
States. Not to mention the fact of Joe
6:11
Biden's proposed 30 percent mining tax or tax on
6:15
Bitcoin miners, right, trying to kill the
6:17
industry. So clearly, there's elements of
6:19
the US government that are hostile towards this
6:22
technology. Those aren't my words. Cynthia
6:25
Lummis at the Bitcoin Policy Institute Summit, she
6:28
literally said, she's like, look, there's elements of
6:30
the US government, there's politicians that want this
6:33
thing to go away because they can't control it,
6:35
right? So, yeah, I mean, I think we
6:37
we definitely have this uphill battle in terms of
6:40
the regulatory environment. And
6:42
one of the things that I've come to come to know
6:46
about Bitcoin or maybe this this realization that I had
6:49
really is that this is really about power
6:52
fundamentally, right? I think the federal government
6:55
gets a tremendous amount of power from being able to
6:58
issue its own money. And I think Bitcoin is a
7:01
fundamental threat to that, giving people the ability
7:04
to opt out of that system entirely, that political
7:06
system. So I mean, I get I get what
7:09
you're saying, but from from my angle, and perhaps
7:13
it's because, you know, simply Bitcoin, we're slaves
7:15
to the news cycle, we have to cover every single
7:17
little thing that's happening and we see it. I
7:20
think it's inevitable. There is there is going to be a
7:22
clash. I see it. I
7:24
see I see them coming up with these bureaucratic
7:27
terms like unhosted wallet and stuff like that to
7:31
kind of demonize self custody. And
7:33
and look at all the centralization of the
7:35
custody of these of the Bitcoin ETFs, right? They're
7:39
all held in Coinbase, making extremely easy for a
7:41
6102. So, yeah, I mean, you guys
7:45
must think of that, of course, at Unchained, you
7:47
guys provide it incredible collaborative custody
7:50
products, which I'm a huge fan of. You
7:53
guys must think of about that a lot, right? The
7:56
regulatory environment and the hostility here in the
7:58
US. Yeah, I mean, anything that I
8:02
say is not going to be, you know, representation of
8:04
Unchained, I'm just on the Unchained marketing team.
8:07
But yeah, I mean, we have our
8:09
enterprise custody product where you can have, you
8:13
know, billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and one,
8:17
you know, custodian or one key agent would not be a
8:21
single point of failure for that enterprise as Bitcoin.
8:25
So you can have, you know, a
8:26
key agent in the UK, you can have a key agent in
8:29
Texas, you can have a key agent in New York City or
8:32
Georgia. So yeah, I mean, I think if
8:36
there is risk where people are beginning to be worried
8:40
about, you know, their custody solutions, like we
8:42
saw this when FTX collapsed, right? When
8:45
FTX went down, everyone had the realization that if you
8:49
are trusting your Bitcoin with one single third
8:52
party, then there is, there's a lot of risk to
8:55
that. And you want to make sure that
8:56
you're, you know, mitigating that risk and potentially
8:59
eliminating it or at least eliminating any one single
9:02
point of failure with that risk. So
9:05
yeah, I mean, I think Unchained, Unchained's key
9:08
product is building a Bitcoin financial services
9:11
company that they are not a single point of failure
9:14
for, right? So like the Unchained personal
9:16
vault or Unchained business vault is all about a two
9:19
or three multi -sig where you as an individual hold
9:22
two keys, Unchained holds one key. And
9:25
so Unchained cannot move your Bitcoin. If
9:28
an entity contacts Unchained and says, Hey, can you
9:31
move your client's Bitcoin? Unchained
9:33
still cannot do that. So it's all about eliminating
9:36
any single point of failure with your Bitcoin. And
9:38
at the end of the day, you know, with Unchained
9:40
personal vaults, you still hold two out of three keys
9:43
and you have complete control of your Bitcoin.
9:47
No, and like I said, I'm a
9:49
huge product, right? So Unchained holds one key
9:51
and, and of course the individual holds the other
9:56
two keys, right? So even if something were to
9:58
happen on a regulatory aspect, right, the
10:01
individual still has, you know, complete access to
10:04
their Bitcoin well, as long as they still have access
10:06
to those two keys, right? So
10:08
yeah, it's, it's, like I said, big fan of the
10:11
offering of personally use it in the past myself.
10:13
Can't recommend it enough. But
10:15
I kind of want to change the subject a little bit
10:18
here and just focus on some of your recent
10:21
writing, some of the recent topics that you've talked
10:24
about, right? So you recently wrote a
10:26
report, your wealth is melting. Could
10:29
you go into detail about that? Or
10:32
just elaborate a little bit, maybe not into detail
10:34
because I don't know if we'll have enough time, but
10:36
touch on some, some points for sure. Yeah.
10:40
So the reason I wrote it, I can start with that and
10:44
then kind of go a little bit in depth and then we
10:48
can stop. But the reason I wrote is I
10:50
think a lot of people think about Bitcoin as a
10:54
lottery ticket. Like if you are not deep into
10:56
Bitcoin right now, you are like, this Bitcoin thing is
11:00
like Tesla or NVIDIA or another crypto. And
11:04
it's just, you know, hyper volatile. It's
11:07
could go up a lot. It could go to zero. It
11:10
could go down a lot. And I don't think that that's
11:13
the right way to look at Bitcoin, obviously. I
11:16
think the way to look at Bitcoin is that it's money.
11:19
And so how do you actually use
11:21
money while you use it to, you know, evaluate and
11:25
perform economic calculations with your wealth or with
11:29
your traditional assets? And when you actually look at,
11:32
you know, the assets that you're investing in and
11:35
your traditional 401k or, you know, your traditional
11:39
financial advisor, it's typically, you know, a
11:41
diversified portfolio of SB 500, you know, treasury
11:45
bonds, real estate could be gold, a little bit of
11:50
gold. And all of these assets have
11:53
one of two or one of two problems or both of these
11:57
problems, they can either be perpetually produced,
11:59
meaning we can always make mine more gold, we can
12:02
always build more real estate, or they can be
12:05
devalued, right? Like you have NVIDIA where they
12:09
are potentially, you know, creating GPUs for $500 and
12:13
then they're selling them for $30 ,000 and they're
12:16
highly, you know, on a margin basis, they're, you
12:19
know, potentially highly profitable and they're
12:22
growing really fast. So the value of NVIDIA is,
12:24
you know, $1 trillion, $2 trillion today. But
12:27
when NVIDIA is worth $2 trillion, meaning humanity
12:30
is storing $2 trillion worth of wealth in NVIDIA,
12:34
that just means that there's going to be a lot
12:36
more competitors trying to figure out how to make a
12:38
better GPU or make a better computer chip. And
12:41
whether that's for a cheaper cost or selling it
12:44
for a cheaper price or making, you know, a
12:46
slightly, you know, more expensive GPU, but it's
12:49
significantly better. So like all of these assets
12:52
that we're holding today as a civilization, you know,
12:55
the market is like trying to fight against it and
12:58
like the tide is going away and it's debasing the
13:01
value of those assets. Whereas
13:03
Bitcoin is just this one unique tool where it's a
13:06
monetary tool. So that means like economic
13:08
systems can converge on one tool. That
13:11
means they can't really be debased by creating another
13:14
Bitcoin, but it's a perfectly scarce monetary
13:16
tool, meaning like you can't create more Bitcoin.
13:19
So I think it's like very
13:20
unique in that it's the only perfectly scarce
13:22
monetary tool in the world. And
13:24
a lot of what people are doing today is trying to
13:27
like create this like makeshift, beautiful,
13:30
diversified portfolio just to, you know, get a market
13:34
rate return. And I think this diversified
13:36
portfolio that everyone's searching for is really
13:38
just Bitcoin. And once you look at that,
13:41
once you look at it like that, you realize all of
13:43
these traditional assets that you're holding are
13:45
actually, you know, especially at today's
13:47
valuations, they're really melting away because we can
13:49
always create more gold. We can always, you know, build
13:52
more houses, build more apartment complexes. We're
13:54
always going to have competitors to, you know,
13:57
companies like Nvidia. So storing your wealth in
13:59
these assets for, you know, decades is probably not the
14:03
best strategy. Maybe, you know, holding Bitcoin
14:05
for decades is the best strategy. Yeah.
14:08
And I completely agree. And it almost, in a little bit
14:12
in my experience, it almost kind of confuses someone,
14:18
let's say a high net worth individual who is used to,
14:22
you know, I love this, diversifying, right? So,
14:26
you know, they put some money in real estate, they
14:27
put some money in asset index funds, right? Maybe
14:30
they have some stocks that they're a fan of, right?
14:34
Maybe they have some money in
14:35
gold. And this is what their wealth
14:38
manager, I'm not trying to bash, I'm friends with a
14:40
lot of wealth managers and people that work in the
14:42
traditional financial system. So,
14:43
I'm not trying to bash anyone individually. But
14:45
this is like the traditional advice that
14:48
you'd be given. And what I always, this kind
14:53
of realization that I've come to, Joe, is that
14:55
Bitcoin is so simple, it's sophisticated and
14:59
complicated, right? Like you're pitching, it's like,
15:01
so you're telling me I only have to buy this? And
15:04
I'm like, yeah. And then they're like, so wait,
15:07
I don't have to pay fees, I don't have to deal with
15:09
a wealth, I don't have to, you know, do these like
15:11
sophisticated, and I'm like, yeah. And
15:14
then that kind of opens their mind after they pay
15:17
their price of tuition and they go through this denial
15:19
phase and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And
15:21
then they, they may, then they start listening to the
15:23
kid in the hoodie rather than the guy in the tie.
15:26
But, you know, it's, it's, it's,
15:31
it's kind of like a culture shock in a way.
15:34
Like, it's really like, it hits
15:36
hard, especially if you've been used to dealing in
15:39
the traditional financial system. And
15:41
I see this the most with ultra high net worth
15:45
individuals and high net worth individuals who they
15:49
have to do this in order to maintain their wealth.
15:52
But like you said, your wealth
15:53
is melting if you're kind of using these things. And,
15:56
and you tell them like, look, it's just Bitcoin,
15:58
just buy Bitcoin, earn Bitcoin, my Bitcoin, put
16:00
that Bitcoin into self custody. That's
16:02
all you got to do. Watch it go up. And
16:05
they're so used to doing all these little different
16:07
things that, you know, it's, it's almost perplexing
16:11
to them. So that's been my experience.
16:13
I don't know if you've had a
16:13
similar experience yourself. Yeah,
16:16
no, I completely agree. Like,
16:18
I think Bitcoin sounds like how I brought it up, I
16:21
think at the beginning, like people think Bitcoin
16:23
is a lottery ticket that could go to a million
16:25
dollars. I think they're right about
16:26
that. It's a lottery ticket with
16:28
pretty good odds that will probably go to a million
16:29
dollars eventually on a long enough time horizon.
16:33
But yeah, no, I think a lot
16:34
of people, you know, without Bitcoin, it makes
16:37
sense to have this diversified portfolio. It
16:39
makes sense to have a little bit of real estate,
16:41
it makes sense to have some S &P 500, it makes
16:43
sense to have, you know, some cash and government
16:45
bonds or, or what not some corporate bonds. But
16:48
now that Bitcoin exists, you have to evaluate your
16:51
opportunity costs against holding all of those
16:54
traditional assets. And then once you realize that
16:56
Bitcoin is just actually like perfect money and, you
16:59
know, 94 % of all Bitcoin have already been mined and
17:02
global adoption of Bitcoin is probably less than 1 %
17:05
arguably, then we're going to see like 99 .9 % of the
17:09
world try to, you know, adopt Bitcoin, because
17:12
literally they're, we're running more gold every
17:14
year, we're building more houses every year, where,
17:16
where if you store your wealth in Nvidia, then
17:18
there's going to be startups that go and
17:19
compete with the Nvidia and you got to figure out how
17:21
to get exposure to those startups. And
17:24
so like, your wealth in these traditional assets is
17:26
actually melting in Bitcoin terms. And
17:28
like, it's not just me saying that it's happening,
17:30
it's been happening for the last 15 years, you just
17:32
have to look at those assets priced in Bitcoin.
17:34
But instead, everyone's
17:35
distracted, they're, they're focusing on their assets
17:38
priced in dollars. And they're like, Oh, wow, my
17:41
house that I bought for $500 ,000 is now worth $600
17:45
,000 over the last, you know, 24 months. It's
17:47
like, your house didn't actually go up in value.
17:50
It's like the dollar went down
17:51
in value. And it's like, if people
17:54
realize that they're just using the wrong money, like
17:57
they're using the wrong unit of account, and they
17:59
realize that like, Hey, there's a better form of
18:01
money to like actually measure my wealth and
18:03
actually measure my economic returns, then maybe your
18:06
house that you bought for 30 Bitcoin is worth seven
18:09
Bitcoin right now. Maybe you should be a little bit
18:11
more concerned that, Hey, I have a lot of wealth in,
18:14
you know, this house or portfolio of houses or
18:17
portfolio of stocks. And, you know, they're actually
18:20
falling in Bitcoin terms, which is unprincipled money.
18:24
It's like, if you're going to
18:25
measure your wealth, and you're going to, why would
18:27
you measure it in a monetary good that a
18:30
certain group can print more of, you want to
18:33
measure your wealth in money that no one can
18:36
print more of, that's probably going to give you
18:37
like the best, you know, realistic estimate of how
18:41
you're performing financially and how you're, if your
18:43
wealth's actually going up or if it's going down and
18:45
Bitcoin is that best money. 100%. And
18:48
then you kind of buried the lead there and I want
18:51
to double back and focus on it, which is this idea
18:53
that like, yeah, and you hear this a lot, right?
18:56
The American dream is dead,
18:58
right? Like you can't afford housing
19:00
like specifically, it seems like you're my generation,
19:03
right? Millennial generation. And,
19:06
you know, it's this idea of like, wow, like, you
19:09
can't afford things. You're screwed or effed, like,
19:12
goddamn. But you're absolutely, you hit
19:14
the nail in the head. If you've been earning and
19:18
saving in Bitcoin, the American dream is thriving,
19:23
not only is it thriving, it's been exported all
19:25
around the world. Housing has actually gotten
19:28
progressively cheaper over time, right? So
19:31
100 % agree with you. So one of the things that
19:35
I've come across, you know, being a Bitcoin content
19:38
creator is this idea of, dude, are we in an effing
19:43
echo chamber, brother? Like, like, we make content for
19:47
other Bitcoiners when the price pumps, you know, you
19:49
get this new influx of other people that are
19:52
listening to your content. But
19:54
still, it's, you know, it's like we're still in this
19:59
echo chamber. We're slowly starting to break
20:02
into the mainstream consciousness. You
20:04
have, you know, this is shout out to Natalie for
20:07
doing this, but you have anchors on Fox Business
20:11
saying stuff like the Fed only benefits the very
20:14
wealthy. You have that MMA fighter that
20:16
just got recently like beat up. He
20:18
won the fight, Joe Rogan puts a mic in his face,
20:20
and he's like, Austrian School of Economics for
20:23
your country to thrive. So like, we're definitely
20:26
making progress. But we're not quite there. What
20:31
has been your experience kind of breaking the
20:33
Bitcoin echo chamber? Sadly, like for my and maybe it's
20:37
like this is Greek tragedy. I
20:39
don't know what you want to call it. But
20:40
for my experience, it's the only thing that works is
20:44
number go up. Like number go up is like, what
20:47
gets people to care? That's when your parents in law
20:50
give you a call. That's when your parents give you
20:52
a call. They're like, Hey, I like this
20:54
Bitcoin thing. Can I buy more? But
20:55
it's never when, you know, we're at we're at the
20:58
bottom at the bottom, they're calling you seeing
20:59
if you're okay. But it tends to be like when
21:03
the price of Bitcoin starts to run, that you know, the
21:06
the echo chamber breaks and the reach of Bitcoin only
21:10
content. You know, we get bigger reach,
21:14
we start to get exposed to a newer type of audience.
21:17
That's been my experience. What's
21:19
been your experience so far? Yeah,
21:21
no, I completely agree. I think thinking about the
21:25
echo chamber idea, I think it is funny. Like
21:27
I think I tweeted the other day that the whole
21:29
reason that I've made my Twitter account, I think
21:31
back in like 2018 was because I thought this
21:34
Bitcoin thing was so interesting. I
21:36
had read through like, pure shards work, all the
21:40
Nakamoto Institute, and I was like, this is just
21:42
like some random blog on the internet. But
21:45
it just seems so logical. And
21:47
I would like, try to find out like where they're
21:50
wrong. And I just like couldn't find
21:52
a good reason. And then you know, you'd watch
21:54
like Bloomberg or CNBC or whatnot, and you'd have
21:58
these talking heads, and I still do today to some
22:00
extent, but they would be talking about Bitcoin, how
22:03
it's like, Tula bubble or Ponzi and stuff like this.
22:06
I'm like, there's probably like,
22:08
like, my research at the time is like, all right,
22:10
there's there's better arguments against Bitcoin.
22:12
But these arguments, like, it's
22:14
like, if Jamie Dimon's talking about Bitcoin, you
22:16
can tell he's, you know, read like spent like 24
22:18
hours max, looking at Bitcoin, like he never
22:21
really spent time to actually look into it. So
22:23
it's like, if the people that are managing trillions
22:25
of dollars worth of capital, haven't like even
22:27
taken the, the any time to actually think about Bitcoin
22:31
from like the first principles perspective, and
22:33
get out of their echo chamber, because it's really
22:35
they're the ones in the echo chamber, like we I
22:37
was in the echo chamber, like when I first heard
22:39
about Bitcoin, I was like, this thing is certainly a
22:41
bubble worthless. It's just a, you know, digital
22:45
rock, who would who would actually want to do this?
22:48
But then I was like, wait a
22:48
second, like, this is just money, like this Bitcoin is
22:51
actually just the world's best money. And
22:53
like, that's why it's, you know, has a compound annual
22:55
growth rate of like 130 something percent over the
22:58
last 13 years, like the world is literally just
22:59
adopting a new form of money. And
23:01
it's been happening. And it's probably going to keep
23:03
happening. And there's no reason like the
23:04
trend that would whatever reverse. So
23:06
yeah, I mean, I think there is there, there,
23:09
there is an echo chamber, like somewhat on Bitcoin
23:11
Twitter for sure. But like, there, there's a
23:14
bigger echo chamber in fiat world and like traditional
23:17
finance for sure. What stops the echo chamber is,
23:21
I certainly agree, like number go up, like, over
23:24
time, Bitcoin goes through cycles, you know, supply
23:28
gets tight, the holders, you know, people that are
23:30
like us that are in Bitcoin, just keep holding
23:32
our Bitcoin, the price slowly starts to drift up.
23:35
It makes new all time highs.
23:37
And then people like the number
23:38
go up, you know, people buy more early bit corners,
23:41
even buy more new Bitcoin, like people that are new
23:44
to Bitcoin start buying more. And
23:45
then the price just goes on a crazy run. And
23:47
then it attracts so much news, so much attention.
23:50
You know, you heard Jamie Dimon
23:52
or whoever in the last cycle or two cycles ago
23:54
say that Bitcoin was a bubble, but then, you know,
23:57
how wait, Bitcoin is now 500 % higher, it's like,
24:00
you know, or 6x higher or 10x higher is like, how is
24:02
Bitcoin a bubble? Like, this guy was very wrong, I
24:05
should have bought a lot of Bitcoin back then. And
24:06
so I think that the more touch points people get,
24:09
they're like, okay, like this Bitcoin thing might
24:12
actually be real. And then it makes them question
24:14
it. And now we have, you know, ETF
24:16
approvals, like BlackRock is embracing Bitcoin. And
24:19
maybe that's not the best way to hold Bitcoin, but I
24:21
see BlackRock, BlackRock ETF is like a top of funnel
24:24
Bitcoin product. You buy some of that, you get
24:27
the number go up. And then later, you're like,
24:29
okay, I actually need to do some form of self
24:31
custody or collaborative custody of like Unchained.
24:33
So yeah, I mean, I think
24:34
number go up kind of eventually solves it. And
24:38
I think it's just going to be a repeating cycle for,
24:40
you know, time and time again. 100 % number go up
24:44
just, just, it just solves the, solves the doubt
24:49
except for Peter Schiff. I don't know why I don't
24:50
know what happened, like something broke his
24:53
operating system. I get it. I
24:56
get it. I get it. I
24:57
understand him. But, you know, at the same
24:59
time, it's like, dude, Bitcoin's a humility test,
25:02
and he can't, he can't eat his humble pie. So
25:07
anyways, I do want to pivot the conversation a
25:09
little bit and talk about, let's start going through
25:14
all these. We touched upon them a little
25:16
bit. But I want to start with
25:18
Bitcoin versus real estate. One
25:21
of the major problems that I think people of our
25:24
generation are having is that a lot of the housing
25:27
has a premium on it, because people are, and I
25:31
believe Unchained, by the way, wrote a great article
25:34
about this. And perhaps it was Parker. I
25:36
don't know. I don't know. My
25:38
memories are playing tricks on me, but I'm pretty sure
25:41
it was, it was, it was hosted on Unchained. And
25:45
I think the name of the article is like the great
25:46
definitialization or something like that. So,
25:50
yeah, I mean, so real estate clearly has this
25:52
premium. I live in Miami, bro. And
25:56
the housing prices, when they started the, you know,
26:01
the pandemic, the pandemic stimulus, like, dude, like,
26:05
it's like 230%, like nuts, like, like, you know,
26:10
houses that were, you know, like 6700, like apartments
26:14
better said that are worth like 6700 ,000 2019 2020,
26:18
you know, two, three years later, they're 1 .2 1 .5.
26:23
Right. Clearly, if you know, you
26:26
are, if you're an asset owner, which tends to be
26:29
the upper classes, the older generation, you're
26:32
like, that's cool. They're not really getting richer.
26:34
The value of those properties
26:36
aren't really going higher. But,
26:38
you know, if you are specifically in the younger
26:42
generations, the, the, the, the, you know, the
26:45
millennials, the Gen Zers, the younger, the lower and
26:48
middle classes who don't have the means to save an
26:51
assets that are saving in Fiat, they're getting
26:57
rocked. Right. They're looking at this and
26:58
like, how can I ever afford a home? And,
27:03
you know, this is one of those things that Bitcoin
27:05
fixes, I think from, from two perspectives, perspective
27:09
number one is if you've been living on a Bitcoin
27:12
standard, even when houses doubled, you're still
27:16
getting, you're still significantly cheaper for
27:19
you. That's number one. And
27:20
number two, I think over time, I think this is
27:23
going to take a much longer to play out. It
27:26
kind of takes away the monetary premium from a lot
27:31
of the, you why does housing have this monetary
27:37
premium? How does Bitcoin fixes fix
27:40
this? And how long is this, how long
27:42
do you see this situation playing out? How
27:44
long is it going to take? Yeah,
27:47
definitely great questions. And,
27:49
you know, it's interesting to talk about. Yeah.
27:52
I mean, everyone hoards houses today because the
27:56
money is broken, right? I think housing is actually
27:59
like, you know, you'll hear like private equity has
28:02
kind of like become a big term. I
28:03
feel over the last few decades where this whole
28:06
strategy of private equity is like, borrow a bunch of
28:09
money at some of the cheapest interest rates in
28:10
the world, buy a business, hope the business keeps
28:13
growing, and there, or, you know, try to operate it in
28:16
a great way. And you can sell the business
28:19
for 2X in one year, but because you borrowed so
28:21
much money from the bank and put so little equity
28:24
into the business, the equity, you know, when the
28:27
business went up 2X, your return was like 10X or
28:30
massive because you used a lot of debt to get access
28:34
to leverage. Real estate is how like
28:36
relatively normal people can kind of do the same thing,
28:39
where it's like, you borrow, you know, you
28:41
pretty much are going 5X long US real estate when
28:45
you access a, you know, a typical 30 year mortgage by
28:49
putting 20 % down and you borrow the 80%. And
28:52
so you're going, you know, 5X long US real estate.
28:55
And that's actually been a
28:56
pretty profitable trade, especially in dollar terms
28:59
over the last, you know, 50 years, probably more.
29:02
And it probably will continue
29:03
being a very profitable trade in dollar terms. But
29:07
now that we have Bitcoin, which is, you know,
29:09
actually better money, you can measure your, your,
29:12
this new opportunity costs and say like, well, I
29:14
could have, you know, bought this house for $500
29:17
,000, it went up to $600 ,000, and I made $100 ,000
29:20
off of that. Maybe with the leverage, I made
29:23
a really good percentage return, not just 20%, but
29:26
maybe I made 100 % return off of that in dollar
29:29
terms. But the house actually may have
29:31
been bought for 30 Bitcoin, and now it's worth 7
29:34
Bitcoin. So you're, you're better off
29:36
just actually buying Bitcoin instead of hoarding all of
29:39
these houses. And so I think that that's
29:40
going to be one way is like real estate investors,
29:44
people that hold, that hold these apartment complexes
29:46
or, you know, millions of single family homes in the
29:50
U .S., but also all over the world, they can
29:53
literally get a better return. And,
29:55
and on a long time horizon, in my opinion, a
29:58
safer return by just buying and holding Bitcoin, like
30:01
the house has no property tax, the house doesn't have
30:03
regular maintenance, you don't have to, you know,
30:05
improve the house every decade, you don't have to
30:07
get in, you know, a new AC machine, you don't have
30:10
to get a new water heater or whatnot, you don't have
30:12
to do all of these things. You
30:13
can literally just buy and hold Bitcoin, and you're
30:15
most likely going to outperform these, you know,
30:18
single family houses that you're just hoarding. And
30:21
so you win by getting a better return, the wealthy
30:23
win by getting a better return, and normal people
30:26
win by actually, you know, getting access to real
30:29
estate if, if marginally more people that are
30:32
hoarding this real estate and renting it out to
30:33
people just decide to market sell it and, and
30:36
let, you know, families, young families that have
30:39
been renting forever or can't afford a house today,
30:42
maybe the market selling from all of these investors
30:44
would be enough to drive down the price and make
30:46
housing a lot more affordable for many people.
30:50
Timing wise, I mean, it's
30:52
definitely a big question. And
30:53
I, in my Bitcoin predictions, I'm high, I
30:57
feel like I'm definitely hyper bullish, a lot more
30:59
than many other people, but I also like, don't ever
31:02
really specify like, exactly when I think Bitcoin is
31:05
going to hit, you know, hit a million dollars or
31:07
one Bitcoin equals one average US house. But
31:11
I think like within the, you know, within 10 years,
31:13
like, you know, you'll be pretty, pretty happy with
31:16
holding Bitcoin versus holding a, you know,
31:18
massive portfolio of single family homes in the US. So
31:22
I think the trend will be pretty obvious in hindsight,
31:25
you know, it might take very long time to play out
31:27
maybe like boomers continue holding, you know, their
31:29
homes for decades, but that just means cheaper Bitcoin
31:32
for people that actually understand what's happening
31:35
and that Bitcoin is a better money, and you'll
31:37
probably outperform them. Maybe
31:39
housing won't get immediately cheaper for you,
31:42
but you'll, in Bitcoin, you'll, you'll get a better
31:45
outperformance and maybe the houses will slowly be
31:47
falling in Bitcoin terms and enable you to actually,
31:50
you know, buy a house for your family. Yeah,
31:54
and I agree. You know, and Bitcoin gives
31:57
that opportunity to millennials and kind of the
32:00
younger generation. And you, but again, you buried
32:04
the lead. So I'm definitely going to put
32:06
you on the spot. You said you don't like making
32:09
predictions. So, but you're hyper bullish.
32:14
So what's the price of Bitcoin
32:15
going to be in 2030? Good question. I
32:19
would say by 2030, it's, you know, like people,
32:24
people bring up the models and like the models have
32:26
been like a, a funny topic of conversation with the
32:30
debate between like the stock to flow model based
32:33
on the Havings and then the power law model that
32:36
Giovanni likes talking about now and he created. And
32:39
then you have like the sailor version of all the
32:42
models are broken in G .U. It's
32:44
going up forever. I would say like there is,
32:49
you know, nothing would really surprise me to the
32:51
upside, right? Like we live in a fairly
32:53
fragile world. Dollars are fairly fragile system.
32:57
Bitcoin is an anti fragile system
32:59
where like if you attack it and you try to hurt
33:01
it, in the short term, it might, you know, go down
33:03
or bad things might happen. But
33:04
I think in the long term, it makes it, you know,
33:07
stronger and better. And so by 2030, I mean
33:10
hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not, you know,
33:12
million dollars per Bitcoin seems pretty likely. Like
33:16
I think like power law model and I'm not like
33:18
endorsing like these specific models, like
33:20
they're just, you know, lines on a chart. So
33:23
they're patterns. They're not like mathematical law
33:25
by any means. I think like the power law
33:27
model is probably like my base case for Bitcoin,
33:30
which I believe is like, you know, million dollar
33:33
Bitcoin by around 2030, 2032. And
33:36
then like stock to flow would probably be like 10
33:37
million dollars per Bitcoin in 2030, 2032. And
33:41
that seems a little aggressive. It
33:43
wouldn't surprise me. But it's certainly possible. But
33:45
yeah, I'd say like probably a million dollars by 2030
33:47
seems somewhat reasonable. Yeah,
33:52
no, and I agree. And I just want to put this
33:54
ticker just as a disclaimer for everyone that Joe
33:58
Burnett 1000 % endorses the power law model. No,
34:02
I'm just I'm just messing with you. Okay,
34:05
so one million dollar by 2030, that's kind of like
34:08
the general consensus, right? Did
34:10
you see I'm sure you saw the the Kathy Wood, the
34:15
Kathy Wood kind of prediction where she put
34:17
the bear case 245, the base case 648, and then
34:22
the bull case is like 1 .5. I
34:24
believe she even moved the 1 .5 up recently. Then
34:28
why is it? Why do you think it's so hard
34:30
to kind of like conceptualize that? And
34:34
before before you answer that question, Joe, I would
34:37
say, you know, are relate to Bitcoin or do you know,
34:41
the diminishing returns start to play in? Like,
34:44
you know, now that fees, the having it was crazy,
34:48
it was man, it was it was so nuts. I
34:49
was at the Bitcoin magazine, having live
34:52
stream, and we are just looking at the the the
34:55
fees and it was like $237 to get a transaction in
34:59
his Bitcoin, a currency of the of the wealthy elite
35:04
now, you know, we we it's it's part of this community
35:08
that's like, no, this is for the plebs and whatever.
35:11
But if it costs $237 per
35:13
transaction, you know, if the best gains are already,
35:17
you know, past us, you know, is are you believe
35:21
are you a believer in the diminishing returns? Has
35:24
the train already left or we too late? What
35:26
would you say to that? I think like, again, I'd say
35:30
my base case for Bitcoin is power law model, which
35:33
is in fact diminishing returns. I
35:35
think that that's, you know, maybe that happens. I
35:39
tend to think no, like I'm, like I said before,
35:42
nothing would surprise me to the upside. Like
35:44
I think Bitcoin is like if you're pricing everything in
35:47
Bitcoin, which I think eventually everyone will,
35:50
then we have, you know, massive amounts of wealth
35:53
is being created just from technology, AI, robotics,
35:57
and that's like only accelerating, right? Like
35:59
you have the Jeff Booth price of tomorrow, you
36:01
know, hyper deflation thesis, which I completely
36:04
agree with. And so like, we're going into
36:07
a period where we're becoming extremely productive
36:10
on an exponential basis, like, and it's getting
36:13
faster and faster. And we're trying to fit all
36:16
this wealth into all these different assets, like real
36:18
estate, whatever, and it's not really fitting into
36:20
these assets, because we can always create more of
36:22
them. So I think a lot of this
36:24
wealth eventually just ends up in Bitcoin at the same
36:27
time at consumer prices should be like exponentially
36:30
collapsing due to, you know, AI robotics, whatnot.
36:34
So like, if you're measuring
36:36
Bitcoin in like how much food you can buy, or like
36:39
how much, you know, basic housing that you can buy,
36:44
I think it's going to be like hyper, there's probably
36:46
not going to be diminishing returns with that, because
36:49
it's like two functions like going in the opposite
36:51
direction where like, things are becoming increasingly
36:53
more abundant. And wealth is increasingly, you
36:56
know, going exponential. And not only that, but Bitcoin
36:58
is becoming exponentially more, you know, a larger
37:01
share of total global wealth, because it's out
37:03
competing all these other asset classes. So
37:06
there's a pretty, I think there's a really good case
37:08
to be made for, you know, non diminishing returns.
37:12
However, you know, if, you know,
37:14
base case is still probably like a power law model
37:17
where like, you know, Bitcoin still out competes
37:19
everything, which means you should have a massive
37:21
portfolio allocation to Bitcoin. But,
37:25
you know, maybe it just takes a little bit longer
37:27
than we expect. And on your second point of,
37:31
is Bitcoin a like a monetary tool for only for
37:35
the wealthy elite, because of, you know, limited block
37:38
space and high transaction fees? I
37:40
would, I would disagree with that. I
37:41
mean, I think like this runes and or to court, or
37:45
no stuff is probably a short term fad. And
37:50
it's like, we've already seen like, I think the mem
37:52
pool hasn't cleared in like one year, or it's been
37:55
roughly a year since it last cleared. But
37:57
there's been periods where like, transactions were
38:00
clearing for six sets for per virtual bite, which
38:04
like, if you're just using the single seg wallet,
38:06
that's probably less than a dollar to make a
38:08
transaction. So, I mean, base layer Bitcoin
38:10
is for long term savings. So
38:14
I wouldn't put $5 on the base layer. But
38:16
if you have a thousand bucks, you know, or maybe
38:20
even a little less or more than like, that's what you
38:23
should be using the base layer Bitcoin for, whether
38:25
it's single seg, whether it's multi seg. And
38:27
like, there's going to be other layers that develop
38:30
on top of Bitcoin. I think high transaction fees
38:32
actually incentivize the development of other layers.
38:35
So to some extent, you could
38:37
even argue that like these high fees that we've been
38:39
seeing while they aren't good in the short term,
38:40
because they don't really, you know, intuitively
38:42
promote self custody, especially for people that
38:45
may not have a lot of wealth. They
38:47
are good in the sense that it's going to encourage,
38:49
you know, funding for things like lightning or
38:52
FETI mint or other scaling solutions that we can't
38:55
even comprehend today. So I think, you know, long
38:58
term, Bitcoin is not just a monetary tool for the
39:02
wealthy elite. And I think we're still like I
39:04
said, so early to Bitcoin, where like less than 1 %
39:07
of the world really understands Bitcoin as truly
39:09
adopted Bitcoin, in my opinion. And,
39:12
you know, 94 % of all Bitcoin have already been
39:14
mined. So like a small allocation to
39:16
Bitcoin, or like, you know, $1 ,000 in Bitcoin today,
39:20
could be worth, you know, significantly more 10, 20,
39:23
30 years from now that like, you know, the price
39:26
is going to go up so much that you actually got a
39:27
pretty big allocation from your, your small initial
39:30
buy that you made. 100%. I agree with that. I
39:34
think, I think a lot of people feel that right is
39:37
that, you know, it's infinity divided by 21
39:40
million, it's going up forever, Laura, right? So
39:43
it's probably idea, it's probably a good idea to
39:45
have some just in case it catches on for sure. And
39:48
I think Wall Street is waking up to that, I
39:50
think, you know, high net worth people are starting
39:53
to wake up to that reality. And
39:55
what I've tended to, what I've noticed over the years
39:58
is that 1 % allocations turns to a 2 % allocation
40:02
turns to a 3 % allocation as, as they get addicted
40:06
to, to NGU technology. So you were mentioning the
40:10
power law earlier and how, you know, I don't want to
40:14
put words in your mouth, but I'd say that you are
40:16
somewhat of a fan. Is that safe to say? I
40:20
admire the model. I mean, like, yeah. Okay.
40:25
So you admire the model. What
40:29
is the power law model for anyone who is just not in
40:34
the know? What is the power law model?
40:36
What does it predict? How
40:37
does it work? You know, what is the, you
40:40
know, what is it exactly? Yeah,
40:43
so I will do not a great job of explaining it.
40:46
Giovanni, the guy that created it
40:47
will, can explain it fairly well, I would say, but in
40:51
cities or in animals or like in the universe, there
40:55
tends to be like this trend called a power law.
40:57
And it's like, if you model
40:58
specific, you know, data points on this like X and
41:02
Y, you know, graph, you can clearly see there's
41:06
these consistent trends within nature, within the
41:08
human body, within all these different, like, very
41:11
unique things. And Bitcoin just happens to be
41:13
following this exact same pattern over time. And,
41:17
you know, it's, it's pretty interesting. Like
41:20
it probably it will eventually break, in my
41:22
opinion, because like the dollar will break, Bitcoin
41:24
will like break to the upside, or Bitcoin will
41:26
actually break. And for some reason, you know,
41:28
it doesn't end well. I don't see that happening,
41:30
but anything is possible. But
41:33
Bitcoin is basically tracking this thing called
41:36
the power law. And it's like, it deviates
41:38
above it, and it comes back to the power law or
41:40
deviate, deviate below it, it comes back to the power
41:42
law. And it's, it is on a
41:44
diminishing returns scale, like the, the X access,
41:49
which is time is on a log scale. So
41:51
like over time, the, you know, distance between each
41:55
like epoch for four years gets closer and closer, and
41:57
the returns over each epoch gets smaller and smaller.
42:01
But it's been following that
42:03
trend for, you know, the last 15 years. So
42:06
maybe it will continue to follow it. Maybe
42:08
it won't. I think like my, my big
42:10
thing is like, no one really knows how to price
42:12
Bitcoin, right? So, and it makes sense because
42:16
Bitcoin is just money. So like once we get past, you
42:19
know, hyper Bitcoinization, Bitcoin will just be money
42:21
and will price every other asset in Bitcoin, like
42:24
we'll, we'll create like a DCF of a company and
42:28
figure out what the price of the company will be
42:30
based off its future cash flows that are in Bitcoin
42:33
terms. But like right now, we don't
42:35
know how to price it because like we're kind of
42:37
pricing Bitcoin adoption and like Bitcoin adoption is
42:40
just from humans, like collectively trying to
42:42
figure out, you know, what, what this even is. And
42:45
it's like, if you're early, then you should, you know,
42:47
have a massive allocation. If
42:48
you're late, you'll eventually get a malocation,
42:51
but you don't have one yet. So
42:52
it's like, we're trying to model the rate of adoption,
42:55
which is like the rate of human action, which is like
42:57
incredibly difficult. And so like, yes, maybe there's
43:00
like this pattern that has repeated in nature that's
43:03
now within Bitcoin itself and or within the Bitcoin
43:06
price history and may continue to be in the, you
43:09
know, the Bitcoin's price future. But
43:11
it could certainly break and like, you know, it's
43:14
hard to predict Bitcoin adoption, right? Like
43:15
if we have a phase shift where, you know, people
43:18
lose faith in the dollar or other fiat currencies
43:22
rapidly, and there's a massive shift to a new
43:25
form of money, which would probably be Bitcoin, then
43:27
that would be, you know, probably break the model
43:30
pretty massively. So yeah, I mean, I think it's
43:33
just like a, it's basically just like a model that has
43:35
occurred in nature and physics and other, you
43:38
know, parts of the universe. And
43:40
Bitcoin just happens to be following it so far. And
43:43
maybe it will break, but so far as remained intact.
43:47
Yeah. And it's interesting, right?
43:50
I forget who made, who said
43:53
this specifically, but it was like, all models work
43:57
until they don't or something like that. I'm
43:58
totally butchering it, but something along the lines.
44:02
And I think that's an accurate
44:04
observation on models specifically. Now,
44:07
okay. So again, pivoting the
44:10
conversation a little bit. So
44:13
it's very interesting because we're kind of in
44:16
uncharted territory in the sense that Bitcoin made all
44:20
-time highs before the halving, right? I
44:23
think we peaked at like 74K. Is
44:27
the cycle theory dead? You know, I hear that so much
44:31
from so many people. I don't believe it is. I
44:34
think Bitcoin is just chugging along like it
44:37
always does. So I wanted to get your take
44:40
on that. Is the cycle, the cycle theory
44:43
dead? I think Bitcoin cycles will
44:46
probably always exist, especially like before hyper
44:51
-Bitcoinization, before like the whole world is adopted
44:53
Bitcoin is money. Because it's been happening for the
44:57
last 15 years. I expect it to continue
44:59
happening. The question, I guess, is like
45:01
what actually drives the cycles? Like
45:03
some people say, you know, the halvings and the supply
45:05
distribution drive the cycles. Some
45:08
people say it's the, you know, macro liquidity that
45:11
drives the cycles. It's just like, is the Fed, you
45:14
know, have the money printer on? Is
45:15
the federal government running massive trillion
45:17
dollar deficits? Is that, you know, stimulating,
45:20
you know, growth and asset prices? I
45:22
think it's probably a little bit of both
45:24
personally. But I think that there probably
45:26
will be, you know, cycles that will continue to
45:29
occur. And it's kind of what we
45:31
talked about earlier where it's like, people come into
45:33
Bitcoin, not necessarily because they initially
45:36
understand it's better money, objectively, because
45:38
of its unique monetary properties. But
45:40
they figure out Bitcoin, because it's just the
45:43
numbers going up, right? Like
45:44
they're like, okay, the number's going up. I
45:46
thought it was dead by a little bit of Bitcoin
45:48
today. And then, you know, when
45:49
numbers going up, if that's when people are buying,
45:52
well, the number is going to go up a little bit too
45:53
much. And so that's a short period
45:55
of time. And it creates like these
45:57
exponential parabolic, you know, bull runs that are
46:00
just like completely unsustainable. Like
46:03
I was talking to Dr. Jeff Ross recently about it. And
46:05
he was like, it makes sense because like whenever
46:07
you see these exponential functions within, you know,
46:10
like the human body, whether that's cancer or
46:13
viruses, like those don't end well, those are not
46:16
sustainable. It's taking up too much
46:18
resources, something bad is going to happen. And
46:20
that's kind of what happens during each Bitcoin bull
46:22
run. Like you have these like crazy,
46:24
fast exponential explosions and the price. And
46:28
a lot of people that are buying into Bitcoin at the
46:30
time are buying in only because of number go up
46:33
and they don't have the, you know, understanding that
46:35
Bitcoin is the better money. So
46:37
when the volatility does come because Bitcoin is
46:39
growing so fast, and it's eventually going to come,
46:42
then they get shaken out of it. They're
46:44
like, wait a second, I'm not exactly sure what I
46:46
bought, you know, Bitcoin just fell 10 % in one day.
46:50
It's down 30 % off the all time
46:53
high that, you know, it recently made one month
46:55
ago. Yes, it still happens to be up,
46:57
you know, 100 % from a year ago, but this downward
46:59
volatility in the short term is freaking me out.
47:01
So I'm going to, you know,
47:02
eventually sell some of my Bitcoin or stop buying
47:04
Bitcoin. And then we create that, you
47:07
know, inevitable bear market where it's like the price
47:09
starts going down more miners, you know, a bunch
47:13
of miners came online during the last bull run.
47:15
And, you know, now they're
47:16
selling all this Bitcoin to cover their operating
47:18
expenses. Maybe they got into business when
47:21
they shouldn't have. And maybe they're like dumping
47:23
their Bitcoin treasury, trying to just survive as
47:26
a business. You know, the core Bitcoin
47:29
holders are still holding their coins. They're
47:33
not selling, but the price is set on the margin. So
47:35
like the marginal seller meets the marginal buyer
47:37
and that price could be moving down pretty fast. So
47:41
yeah, I'd definitely think the cycles will continue.
47:44
And I think it's important to
47:45
be prepared for them, like as a Bitcoin holder, like
47:47
you want to make sure you have a strong balance
47:49
sheet, you want to make sure you have solid income
47:51
and you want to be, you know, consistently stacking
47:54
and staying humble. Like the last thing you want to
47:56
do is ride to the top of the bull market, think it's
47:59
never going to end and then take out a massive,
48:02
you know, leverage long on Bitcoin for whatever reason,
48:04
because you think it's going to keep going up
48:06
because you're overly greedy and, you know, you'll just
48:09
get wiped out. So I think it's just critical
48:11
that, you know, you should recognize that Bitcoin
48:13
adoption is occurring. It's going to probably going to
48:16
continue occurring and the volatility is going to come
48:20
at some point and you just got to be prepared for
48:22
that. Yeah, 100%. And
48:25
yeah, I mean, I have a good friend of mine. So
48:29
Odell's famous quote, right, was stay humble, stack
48:32
sats, but a good friend of mine who actually made a
48:35
bet with Adam back in regards to Bitcoin hitting
48:38
100K before the halving. His
48:40
name is Vikingo and I added to Odell's line. It's
48:46
not only stay humble, stack sats, but it's stay humble,
48:48
stack sats, stay solvent. And
48:50
I think that's a really, really important kind of
48:55
aspect into it because I think a lot of people,
48:57
perhaps they kind of put themselves in a levered
49:00
play. Perhaps they don't have sufficient
49:02
cash flow or income coming in where they have to put
49:06
themselves in an uncomfortable situation where
49:08
they have to sell some of their Bitcoin just to pay
49:10
for living expenses. So yeah, that's an incredible,
49:14
that's a very, very important point, I think
49:16
Bitcoin. I think Bitcoiners have to be
49:19
aware of that. So let me ask you this and
49:23
I'm aware you're going to be incredibly biased,
49:25
obviously, but what is the best long -term, in your
49:30
eyes, what is the best way to store Bitcoin long -term?
49:34
Best way to store Bitcoin long
49:36
-term? You know, a lot of people now
49:38
are talking about the ETFs. They're
49:41
excited that they can buy Bitcoin in their brokerage
49:44
account, log in, type in FBTC or whatever ticker
49:47
they want, and it's easy and you click buy. And
49:50
I think that's a cool way to get started with
49:53
Bitcoin, but I don't think that that's the end game.
49:56
And I think once you get some
49:57
of that number go up, you're going to recognize
50:00
that there's actually a better, safer way to hold
50:04
the Bitcoin where you are free to move the Bitcoin.
50:07
You're not relying on any single
50:09
trusted third party to make sure you have access to
50:12
your Bitcoin. And so in my opinion,
50:15
collaborative custody, potentially via unchained,
50:18
which is where I work for obviously, is one of the
50:21
best ways to hold your Bitcoin. I
50:22
was an unchained client before I joined unchained
50:25
to work there. And I think it's cool is every
50:28
other exchange that you're using to buy and sell
50:31
Bitcoin, whether that's FTX, FTX, Coinbase, you know,
50:36
Kraken, whoever, if their website goes down or they
50:40
lose their keys for whatever reason or whatever
50:42
happens, you lose your Bitcoin. Like
50:44
they, you don't even really have Bitcoin. They
50:46
had your Bitcoin, you just needed to request it to
50:49
get it off. Whereas unchained, if unchained goes
50:52
out of business or disappears tomorrow for
50:54
whatever reason, you still have your Bitcoin unchained
50:57
just there as a backup to make sure that you don't
51:00
lose your Bitcoin, right? You
51:02
can have a two out of three Bitcoin multi -sig
51:05
where you hold two keys, which means with both keys,
51:08
you have complete control of your Bitcoin. And
51:11
then the one key that unchained has, which means
51:14
they can't move your Bitcoin with just that one
51:15
key, they're just there as a backup in case, you
51:19
know, one of your keys happens to get lost or
51:22
stolen or whatever reason you don't have one of the
51:26
keys anymore, you can work with unchained to actually
51:29
get access to your Bitcoin and move it to another
51:31
vault. So it like eliminates a single
51:33
point of any single point of failure with your
51:36
Bitcoin. And anyone that knows, has
51:39
worked with Bitcoin self custody, it is kind of
51:41
scary at first, right? Because
51:43
you're like, wait, did I, you know, type this address
51:46
incorrectly? Like what if I wrote down my,
51:49
you know, 24 word seed phrase wrong, or what if I
51:52
recorded it incorrectly? And maybe I haven't done the
51:55
recovery process in a while, I hope it's still
51:57
there, right? Like you want to make sure that
52:00
your self custody setup, you know, you can't just
52:03
make one mistake and lose your Bitcoin. So
52:06
that's kind of what unchained does. If
52:08
we help you, if you do happen to make a mistake,
52:10
which does happen to some people, then you don't lose
52:14
all your Bitcoin and you just move it to another
52:15
vault and, you know, you have access to your
52:18
Bitcoin. So I think it's, I think it's
52:20
pretty much the best way to safely hold Bitcoin for
52:23
the long term. Yeah, no, the collaborative
52:27
custody is, is I definitely agree for, and definitely
52:32
something that I would recommend to, to just
52:36
people that don't have the technical know how to kind
52:40
of set it up themselves. It
52:42
provides a kind of like a, like that backup key, like
52:46
you said. And that's definitely something
52:48
that I would recommend to high net worth, or someone
52:54
that has a decent enough bag and Bitcoin and they're
52:57
older and they, they need, and you guys, I believe
53:00
that you guys offer like this, like platinum version
53:04
of it as well, that kind of has like a concierge,
53:06
like a phone number to call, just in case you run
53:11
into technical, which you will run into technical
53:13
difficulties with multi -sig, that's inevitable. So
53:17
you guys do offer that like white glove service, I
53:20
believe as well, right? Yep.
53:22
Yeah, we have concierge on boarding, which is like, if
53:25
you are a complete beginner, like you are, you
53:28
know, an 80 year old grandma or grandpa or 90
53:31
years old, and you're like, I want to try this Bitcoin
53:33
self -custody thing, like you can get on a call
53:35
with a Bitcoin custody expert, Bitcoin hardware
53:38
wallet expert, and they will literally like walk
53:40
you through the steps. So yeah, it's pretty cool.
53:43
That's awesome. Very,
53:44
very cool. All right. So
53:45
we are getting to the top of the hour, about three
53:47
minutes left. So Joe, I'm going to hand you
53:50
the mic figuratively or metaphorically, I don't know
53:54
what the right term is for that. But
53:56
I'm going to give you the stage. And
53:59
if you had, you know, any closing thoughts for the
54:04
audience, anything that's top of mind, anything that,
54:08
you know, is near and dear to your heart, that you
54:11
want to tell the, you know, the 720 people
54:15
watching live right now, what would it be? Yeah,
54:19
I mean, first, thanks for having me on. Really
54:21
enjoyed it. I feel like I'm usually the
54:23
guy asking questions on these types of things. So
54:26
it's kind of interesting to be on the other side of
54:28
the mic, I guess. But yeah, no, we brought up
54:31
our report earlier, or my report that I wrote called
54:35
your wealth is melting. If you want to check that
54:37
out, you can go to unchained .com slash melting
54:40
download a free copy. You can also follow me on
54:43
Twitter, you know, I capital, three capital. And
54:47
yeah, I mean, closing thoughts overall, like
54:50
Bitcoin is going to be volatile, but it is
54:53
objectively the best money in the world as it's
54:56
immediately absolute scarce, portable, durable, divisible,
55:00
fungible, et cetera. And I think the world is
55:03
actively converging on Bitcoin as the best money.
55:07
I don't think that that trend
55:08
is slowing. In fact, I think it's
55:10
accelerating now with Bitcoin ETFs and people,
55:14
you know, more and more people actually endorsing,
55:16
you know, Bitcoin itself. And
55:18
the number go up is going up, right? So
55:21
we're seeing the number go up, we're seeing more
55:22
people getting into Bitcoin, but just continue to be
55:26
prepared for, you know, unexpected volatility, you
55:29
know, get your coins off exchanges, you know, set up
55:32
an unchained vault to make sure you don't lose access
55:35
to your coins. And, you know, keep saving
55:37
Bitcoin and just, you know, keep living your life and
55:40
providing value for other people. I
55:41
think that's one of the beautiful things about
55:43
Bitcoin is like, you now don't have to, you know,
55:46
invest in real estate, you don't have to buy the next
55:48
Tesla stock, you can just live your life, provide
55:51
value to others and hold Bitcoin. Awesome.
55:55
Well, ladies and gentlemen, Joe Burnett, you go check
55:57
him out on his Twitter, which he, which he, which
56:00
told you guys about, and of course, go follow his
56:03
YouTube channel. He's dropping some amazing
56:05
content. You can search, what's it
56:08
called, Joe Burnett's, right on YouTube. Is
56:10
that correct? Yeah. It's like Joe Burnett 27
56:12
or something like that. Joe Burnett 27. Very,
56:15
very good. High signal content. And
56:18
Joe, thank you so much for joining us on Simply
56:20
Bitcoin IRL. Thanks for having me. Enjoyed
56:22
it. Appreciate it. All
56:25
right, guys, that was our show. We'll
56:26
be back for the live show tomorrow to discuss Samurai.
56:29
What's going on with that? I
56:30
mean, look, it should not have a caught, it should
56:32
not caught like caught any of you guys by surprise if
56:35
you guys have been tuning into Simply Bitcoin. So
56:37
we're going to do a deep dive on that. I'm
56:39
going to go full Nico Jones, because there's
56:42
something that I feel very passionate about. Did
56:44
you think that they're just going to give over the
56:45
keys gently and just go gently into that good
56:48
night? No, this is the separation of
56:50
money and state and on. So buckle up, take self
56:52
custody, and, you know, spread the peaceful Bitcoin
56:55
revolution. The way that we do that is to
56:57
get more individuals taking self custody, more
56:59
individuals waking up to the reality that's not left
57:01
versus right, red versus blue, it's green versus
57:04
orange. Anyways, I'm Nico. I'll
57:06
see you guys tomorrow for a brand new episode of
57:08
Simply Bitcoin Live.