Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Didn’t Win Any Converts During The State Of The Union + There’s A Clear, Populist Path To A Majority Party

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Didn’t Win Any Converts During The State Of The Union + There’s A Clear, Populist Path To A Majority Party · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the check podcast.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Let me give you a quick rundown.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: I have just come off the air of a three
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: hour live stream of a watch with broadcast that I
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: did with my friend Chrys Saliza in collaboration with YouTube
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: and c Span, where we got to do live running
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: commentary as the President was speaking, as well as with
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the Democratic response.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: Was a unique thing.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Was essentially doing what I always do for a stud
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: of the Union but instead of just job owning with
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: a colleague as we watch before we go on the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: air to get my thirty second take ready to go
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: post State of the Union, we just sort of went
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: along with it on running commentary. So I will admit
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: it is in some ways I've never been You're in
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: some ways very informed about the speech itself, but I'll
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: give you a rundown, so a little bit of that.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: I want to go through.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: A few interesting different type of poll that my friend
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Dante Cheni, who runs the Americans Communities Project, which is
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: a project that is housed inside of Michigan's University, some
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: interesting findings that he got in.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: His recent survey.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Sort of what real populism would look like if you
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: actually pursued a populist agenda, and by definition, that means
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: things that are where there's more than fifty percent of
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: the public is in favor of and it's across the
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: board whether you're in urban or rural America.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: So I want to get through that.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I have my top my new top five list of
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Senate of potential Senate flips, but I'm also going to
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: use it to update a few things and some few
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: competitive Senate races including sort of.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: What I have.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: You know, I think I've certainly added Minnesota to my
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: campaign watch list. I think Michelle Tafoya in particular, is
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: going to make that more competitive. I think in a
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: year like this, if Trump is unpopular, it's going to
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: be hard for Republican to win a light blue state
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: like Minnesota. But Republicans have put another seat in play.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: But Democrats also appear to have strengthened their hand a
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: bit since the last time I did this in both
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Alaska and Maine. So with that, though, let's get started
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: about the state of the Union.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be one of those
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: speeches where our fragmented ecosystem. You know, if you are
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: deep in the magabase, you're going to love everything you saw,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: and it is in the base of the party is
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: going to love the own the Libs moments that the President,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: who was a bit low energy for most of the night,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: and as Chris would point out, whenever he's reading from
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: a teleprompter, his energy is down. When he is just riffing,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: he has more energy than when he's concentrating and trying
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to read the teleprompter. And this was a night he
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: stayed with the teleprompter because there was a lot of stagecraft,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: since this was a lot of metals that he chose
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: to he chose to hang out. But there was a
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: you know, going into the speech in theory, there were
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: some opportunities for him right this is there is a
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: lot of skepticism that this is a healthy economy. You
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: see Independence are souring, There's some questions about what is
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: what is he up to with Iran, what's going on
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: with Ice. So there was an opportunity to reset, opportunity
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: for clarity on certain issues, and potentially an opportunity to
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: introduce some new ideas. So what the speech I think
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: mostly was was more of trying to just celebrate him
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit and and sort of celebrate the stuff
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: that animates is based the most. I thought starting with
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: immigration and with the border was the smartest way to start,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: because it is the one accomplishment where he's got the
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: largest number of folks and the electorate who agree it
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: is an accomplishment. How all of his other accomplishment he
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: touts is not necessarily in something that the general public
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: agrees with. I thought his tone in the economy couldn't
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: have been worse if you're a Republican on the ballot
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, because he was very dismissive of
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the idea that this is not a healthy economy. Essentially,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: it's trying to do the Jedi mind trigg. This is
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: an amazing economy. It's the greatest economy ever. It's going
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: like gangbusters. Never before has anybody seen, right, And when
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: you hear the never before, that should be a trigger, like, oh,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: he's making something up, right. There's a couple of trigger
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: phrases when he says when he repeats dialogue and quotes
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: somebody supposedly talking to him, and it begins with the words, sir,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: you know it's something that's never been said, and that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: he made up the anecdote. The other trigger phrases never
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: before seen, you know. And I think on the economy
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: he really whift and then you really noticed it, not
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: at when you heard the Democratic response by Abigail Spenberg,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: who I think did as good of a job as
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: you can in that situation. Generally, there's a really well
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: crafted speech, and I'll get to that in a few minutes,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: but in general, I think he really hift in the economy.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: The interesting decision he made was to and this isn't
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: the worst idea if you're unpopular, which is you hide
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: behind everybody else you try to get some reflected glory.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: It started, of course with the Olympic hockey team, and
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: boy he sat. I mean, I think we went a
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: good ten minutes with the Olympic Hockey team at the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: State of the Union, and in fact he it is
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: where he began what turned into his own little awards show.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, this was the Kennedy I think he gave
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: out more awards at that State of the Union than
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: he did when he hosted the Kennedy excuse me, the
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Trump Kennedy Center Honors, I guess is what he's going
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: to refer to it now. But it started with giving
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: the Presidential Men of Freedom immediately, which and let me
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: say a word about these awards, because these are incredibly
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: these are amazing honors to receive the Medal of Honor
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: in particular right the highest award you can receive as
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: an enlisted.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Member of the military.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: And he handed up too. Last night, he handed out
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: a purple heart, which not to not to pick at
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: knits here, it's not one hundred percent clear that if
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: you weren't in combat, that you should get a purple heart,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: that it was a different type of award.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: But he wanted to give up.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: He wanted to give an award to the National guardsmen
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: that lost their life and the National guardsmen who survived
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: the attack, and of course he did the present it.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing about it is, these are incredible honors.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: The ceremonies where these are normal, these sort of the
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: traditional ceremonies for Medal of Honor where you spend a
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: good ten minutes getting to know the recipient, getting to
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: know the battle itself. And he he's sort of short circuited.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, he told the longer story in the Venezuela story,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: but he kind of short shrifted the Korean War veteran
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit. And again, I don't want to take
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: away these are incredible honors for these for these gentlemen.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: And you know, by the way, with a son in Dallas.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Now I think I've gotten to see the Medal of
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Honor museum and it's amazing something. By the way, it's
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: a gift of the Jones family, Jerry Jones, Charlotte Jones,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Stephen Jones. It is a terrific I love the fact
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: that they put it in the complex with AT and
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: T Stadium, because look, you know, sometimes museums as destinations
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: don't always get gawkers. But if you're going to be
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: hanging out and tailgating for eight hours at a Cowboys game,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I'd love for you to take thirty minutes take your
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: son through the Medal of Honor museum.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: So I think it's a I like that.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I like, you know, let's take let's nothing wrong with
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: using a football game to teach a little bit about
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: American history, right, And the most moving ceremonies I've witnessed
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: are these Medal of Honor ceremonies that presidents do, and
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I've gone to quite a few of them, So I
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: just because I've experienced so many of them and there's
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: just such important. Look, I really hope the White House
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: still does the still lets these gentlemen invite families, still
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: has the White House celebration. I mean, there's you know,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: that's part of the experience for the honoree. So I'm
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: not going to presume that they're going to short shircuit that.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, if anything, I think the President loves himself
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: a good event at the White House, and he loves
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: playing hosts, so I assume he will. But this was
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: a little there was a I don't think this is
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: going to play well with There's a bit gimmicky to
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: sort of overload it. I mean, we've taken something that
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: began with Reagan State of the Unions, where he would
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: start to single out folks in it, and every president,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: you know, like everything, any good idea becomes contagious, and
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: it's in some ways Trump like everything. Right, he the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: words Moderation has never been something Donald Trump is about.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: It has agreed to.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: He doesn't moderate his temperament, he doesn't moderate his politics,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: he doesn't moderate his ego. He doesn't moderate, right, That's
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: just not who he is. But this felt a little,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: a little gimmicky, like we were at an awards show.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: But again, I you know, I think the base loved it.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I think the base was fine with it. This is
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: who they have come to know and love and there
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: and this is what they do with Donald Trump. And
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I think it certainly if you're his minders here and
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: you wanted to keep him from totally you know, he
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: did hold his tongue a bit. On the Supreme Court
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: called it a disappointing ruling, but he didn't personally attack
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: any justices. I guess we can call that a small win.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: The only time he ever animated is when he sorted,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: you know, attacking Democrats, which again is the State of
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: the Union is a night where a president has an
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: opportunity to be president for all Americans, or you can
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: choose to be a political candidate. He chose to be
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: a party leader rather than the president. So but again,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: it will mask you know, his feedback loop. He will
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: hear not a lot of good things in members of
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Congress on the Republican side of the aisle. When they
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: the base, they'll hear good things from the base about
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: that speech. So it will it might sort of keep
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: some of them in check. But these are the same
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: members that are in swing districts. Actually, the ones in
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: swing districts, most of them are bailing. They're not running again.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: But I think it's masking the problem because he didn't
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: speak to the middle of the electorate. And again I
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: go back, it's the Democratic response, which was, like I said,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: incredibly well crafted. She started with messaging first and then.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: She introduced herself.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: She sort of the message was simple, you know, is
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: he looking out for you? Is he looking out for
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: your for It was a very simple message. It was straightforward,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: It wasn't. I think what's interesting are the issues that
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: because trust me, these democratic responses are very much they're
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: a bit micromanaged. Any of these responses when I say
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: democratic in this case, the democratic response, when it's a
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Republican response, there's a lot of cooks in the kitchen
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: as far as messaging is concerned, like please mention this issue,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: don't mention this issue, et cetera. Right, And in many
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: ways it is sort of what the person giving the response,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: particularly an election, is doing, is basically this is what
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: party leaders are saying, these are the issues we're comfortable
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: running on, by virtue of the person they pick, and
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: also the issues that are thrown in there. I think
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the reason you pick somebody who has just come off
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: the trail is that you know, she's been on the
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: front line. She's been out there talking to people. She's,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: in theory right, been in front of the voters more
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: recently than any member of Congress has been in.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: Front of voters.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: But I thought she acquitted herself quite well. I thought
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: it was you know, in the different settings you picked.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: This is, believe it or not, the fourth Virginian in
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the twenty first century that has given the response. Three Democrats,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Jim Webb, Abigail Spamberger, and Tim Kaine, and one Republican
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Bob McDonald. Glen Young Cain never ended up giving one.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: I think they're maybe we can be mildly surprised that
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: he never made.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: The cut there.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: But it was one of the where you're like, Okay,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: if you're just doing the focus group, I promise you
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: she'd focus group better with independence than the President did,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: because I can just tell you what issues have been
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: popping up among independence and where they sour the most.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: So I expect you know these these days, the state
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: of the unions don't have a lot of legs. And
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: because the President didn't introduce many new ideas, the biggest,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: sort of the freshest idea is the getting the AI
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: companies do essentially find their own sources of power so
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: that it does not fall onto.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: You and I to.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: See our power bills go up because of these AI
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: data centers. That is one of those that's got bipartisan
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: appeal and it's almost like a table stakes type of
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: issue to be for I think everybody that's one of those.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: You're not going to get much disagreement on that, except
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: from perhaps the AI companies who don't want to have
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to So, like everything, the devil will be in the
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: details on this one, and we'll see if it's something
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: that can that can actually get through Congress. If I
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: were to say, the most surprising thing I heard, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: of substance, was this rationale he was putting out there
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: for Iran. He at one point talked about, first of all,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: this is where the contradiction comes in. This is where
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Iran feels like this is a this he could be
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: opening a Pandora's box. So on the one hand, and
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: he says, we obliterated their nuclear arsenal, and everything they
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: were doing, we obliterated it.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: He said that in the speech.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: He also said if they will just promise they'll never
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: seek a nuclear weapon, then maybe we can do a deal.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: But they can't make that promise. And then he said,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: look this regime they're making, they're they're they already have
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: ballistic missiles that can hit Europe and they'll soon have
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: ballistic missiles that can hit the United States. That sounded
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: like a pretext.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: This it Rang.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: This is saying, hey, Saddam has weapons of mass destruction,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: to say Iran could have ballistic missiles that hit the
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: United States. North Korea already has it. So if you're
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: going after Iran, so are we going to North Korean acts?
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't think this is going to play well
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: with the more isolationist wing of his base, let alone
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the exhausted majority that isn't crazy about an adventure and
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: a military adventure gone wrong here. And I will say,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I do think the president is feeling his oats on
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: some of these, on some of these international adventures.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: Right. First of all, it goes back to his first term.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: A lot of people, including close aids of his, warned
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: him that assassinating Solamani could cause all sorts of problems,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: had minimal, minimal pushback. Then the bombing Iran's nuclear side
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: that was going to cause wider could cause wider problems.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: It didn't.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: So Ditto and Maduro seemed to go smoothly. Although that's
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: another one where he is no longer. He didn't once
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: talk about democracy in Venezuela. It didn't he There was
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: not even a fig leaf the entire Venezuela conversation in
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: the State of the Union, was about the oil and
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: about yes, he talked about her the new president, releasing
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: the political prisoner of it. She's illegally in office. This
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: was a this was a stolen election, as monitored by
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the entire free world. All of that last election was rigged.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: So she is not even arguably shouldn't be in office.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: But we are not talking about any sort of democratic
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: replacement yet. And he talks to her as if this is,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: you know, some sort of incredible relationship. And at the
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: same time he talked about the thugs of Maduro and
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: what that horrible regime was doing. You're still working with
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: the Maduro regime, mister president, and you're don't seem to
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: be that interested in promoting democracy. I know that's not
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: what Marco Rubio wants. Look, he got the president to
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: do Venezuela because of the oil. We know this, but
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: it's going to I'm curious how he's going to get
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: the president to start to care about freedom and democracy
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: in Venezuela because he did not talk about it at all.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: And again, now back to Iran, that was I mean,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: you know, this is the same guy that criticized Bush
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: and Cheney for Iraq in Afghanistan. This is the same
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: guy that said a democrat, we're itching to start a
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: war with the Ron, and he has now had the
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: most expansive pretext. I mean, Lindsey Graham was ecstatic to
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: hear that ballistic missiles could be a pretext to attack
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: a Ron. This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought
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  Speaker 1: the Chucktodcast. So, look, it is hard to imagine we
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: were that we would somehow not hit Iran after amassing
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: this entire the arsenal that we have amassed in the
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Middle East. But that's one one of the things I
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: was looking for to see what was going to be
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: how is he going to.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: Talk about Iran?
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: And look, I'm I'm skeptical that that, because I you know, what,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: how does this? What do we do next week? And
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: what are we bombing? Are we trying to prevent them
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: from getting a nuclear weapon? Or are we doing regime change?
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: And he seemed to sort of kind of offer up
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: potentially in all of the above. Right, he talked about
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: the brutality that the regime made against the protesters, So
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: he I think there's I think how he put around
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: out there.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: He left open.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: And then what I think is a just a huge
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: faux pam and is probably going to cause the President
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: of Mexico some political problems is that he basically took credit.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: You know, it was very careful, right, There's no doubt
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the US intelligence helped the Mexican government get this cartel leader.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: But the President claimed credit for it at the State
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: of the Union, which of course is what many people
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: may think already in Mexico. But it's important that this
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: is seen as Mexican led if you want to continue
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: to have the will of the people on this one.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: And I think to to sort of and again he's
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: I joke, I'd love to play poker with Donald Trump,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: because I'm not. You know, he's he tells, he tells
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: you everything. He eventually tells you everything. And I have
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: no doubt we played a huge role in pressuring the
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Mexican government to do that. But to keep the Mexican
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: government credible, you can't do what he did there, and
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: that was you know, this is this is why you know,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: our partnerships and our allies are not feeling like allies
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: these days. They feel like that Trump will sell them out,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: throw them under the bus. Just to get credit or
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. But that that is one of those
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: where I have a feeling there's going to be there's
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: some adjuta and I'm sure Marco Rubio is having to
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: calm things down a little bit with his Mexican counterparts
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: on that one. But it was a long speech. And
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: one thing we've learned from these speeches these days is
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: that the people who watch are usually the true believers.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: There are a handful of hate watchers, and you know
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: the people in the middle, Well, you have about fifteen
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: to twenty minutes at the start of the speech to
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: talk to them. And I think when you start to
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: look at how he did the speech. Yes, he celebrated
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: the gold medal. That was great, But did he move
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: the needle to answer the public's criticism about is he
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: focused enough on the economy? Is he focused enough on
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: bringing down costs? And the polls indicate no, by a lot,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: not by a little. And that speech night it wasn't
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the reset that I know some Republicans wanted to see.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Wasn't a disaster and the bass is going to love it.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: You know what's worse is if your bass were disappointed
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: and were frustrated, but there's a lot of there's a
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: lot of unknowns here, you know, like I said, Iran
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: could not play well. He may have opened up a
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: problem with Mexico on that front. And it's also just
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: as likely that it just it just you know, he's
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: he's sort of Charlie Brown's the Adults and a Charlie
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Brown cartoon, where outside of his base, many Americans now
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: here won't wah wah wah wah wah. Right, there is
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: an exhaustion from him and from the chaos and from
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the constant churn.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: That's why he.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Didn't win reelection the first time. It's why he lost
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: the mid terms the first time. You know what's interesting
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: about there is a pattern here with Donald Trump the politician.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: When he's at when he's making the case against somebody
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: in power, he's pretty half decent politician twenty sixteen, twenty
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: twenty four. When he's having to defend his policies or
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: make the case for himself, he struggles twenty eighteen, midterms,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty and now we're seeing it again in twenty
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: twenty six. Look, it's a lot easier to be against
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: something than to run on something. And we know Donald
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: Trump would rather run against someone or something than have
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: to defend and run on something. We got a taste
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: of that in that speech tonight. But if this was designed,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: if this was supposed to fix the problems going into
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: the midterm and give the Republicans a message to run on,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: I think in that sense this speech.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Came up short.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: And look it is you know one of the things
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: about the moment we're in and about whether my substack
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: this week is titled the sixty percent Country and why
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: neither party can reach it. And it's based on what
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: my friend Dante Cheney's been doing with the American Communities Project,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: and what he does is he splits the electorate up
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: by county type. It goes through fifteen different counties, but
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: he does a survey and he looks at it that
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: way rather than looking at it through red and blue
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: and independent. You look at it sort of where people live.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: And what's interesting is what actually unites Americans and whether
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: they live in the rural rural counties or where they
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: live in urban counties. One of the things that unites
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: the majority of the Americans is this large majorities of
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: pose cutting social programs to lower taxes. Only about a
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: quarter of Americans support that trade off right, Roughly three
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: quarters believe the government should ma teams some form of
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: safety net. So we're pro safety net. Okay, that is
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: that is that is a large that is the consensus.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: We're pro safety net. We can have disagreements to how
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: big it should be, how many people should qualify, but
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: in general, if we can, the country's for it. Nearly
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: two thirds, No matter where part of the country you survey,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: nearly two thirds believe the economy is rigged to advantage
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the rich and powerful. What did Donald Trump do in
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: the State of the Union to push back on that concept?
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: And if anything, Abigail's Bamberger that was kind of a
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: punchline in hers. And this is something that unites left,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: right and center, this feeling that this is and this
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: is the quote Epstein class campaign messaging that you've seen
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Rocanna and John ossoff use. Where hey, are there rules?
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: You know, rich people live by one set of the rules,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: and the rest of us have to live by another
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: set of rules. Strong majorities believe the media is more
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: interested in making money than telling the truth. Well, we
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: see it now all over the place, whether it's legacy, cable,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: channels who are just trying to tell you what you
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: want to hear in order to desperately get that. Or
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: you have these influencers, right, people who just tell you
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: what you want to hear, just sort of dunk on
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: the other side and fire up the base without actually
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: being honest and telling you how this may have worked,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: this may not have worked. And roughly two thirds, no
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: matter where you live in this country, agree that Americans
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: have more in common than we're led to believe. The
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: point is, imagine putting that together. You could create a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: sixty percent government majority, protect the safety net, fix an
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: economy that's tilted upward, break the grip of concentrated power,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: repair an information ecosystem people don't trust, and restore accountability
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: and government that's not friends positions. This to me is
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: a baseline, and it's an easy platform to run on it,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: especially if you're an independent candidate. Now, when you start
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: to ask questions that include race and culture, that's where
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: you start to see the polarization, and that's what you
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: just start to see the dividing lines. And this is
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: where I think I don't know whether any member of
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the either of the two major parties can credibly make
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: a case to the middle of the electorate.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: One of the most stunning poll numbers I shared with you,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I think in the last episode, in the Washington Post
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: poll that showed Trump's numbers in terrible shape, Democrats were
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: not benefiting. When you were asking what's the most important problem?
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Who do you trust to handle the most important problems?
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: It was literally a tie. The third said Trump, a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: third said Democrats, and the third said neither. And which
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: just look at the results, right. We've been voting that
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: way for a while. We know who we don't want.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Every time a party gets power the next election, we
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: vote them out, whether it's you know, I mean we
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: have voted out. I mean, I'll put it this way.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: The party in control of the House has been voted
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: out century in twenty oh six, twenty ten, twenty eighteen,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two. And we may add a fifth time,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: the fifth time in the first twenty five years of
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: this of this century, the Senate majority has slipped in six, fourteen,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four. Probably ought I wanted
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: three chances of flipping this time, And of course the
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: presidency has flipped in twenty sixteen, Right, twenty oh eight,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four. So each
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: of these chambers, the House is sentate and the president
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: has all flipped at least four times where the voters
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: have just wanted the other party right. And it's not
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: necessarily they're buying what the other party is selling. They're
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: just not buying what the other party was.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Doing in power.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: And now that we've done this so much, the party
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: out of power is not getting the same benefit of
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: the doubt that they would get previously, and it's been
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: diminishing benefit of the doubt. Right Trump had this highest
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt, and after sixteen he had a
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: much lower benefit of the doubt going into twenty four
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Right Republicans had the highest benefit of doubt after twenty
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: ten as congressional majorities, then it would diminish even as
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: they succeeded in twenty fourteen. Did it with the Democrats
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: they had the highest arguably after twenty eight and even
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: when they got it back in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: they didn't have the same level on that front. So
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: I have a feeling that a minute, an elected official minute,
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: anybody puts a party ID label next to their name
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: that says deer R. It means you have two thirds
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: of the country that are going to be skeptical to
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: what you have to say, and we have a quarter
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: century of elections to prove it. And yet you see
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: there are some clear, actual populist issues.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: You could be running on.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: That would be majoritarian issues fifty five to sixty five
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: percent supporting issues. When you start to look at it,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: it's actually the fd OUR coalition right. The New Deal
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: united urban workers, rural farmers, industrial labor, and large swads
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: in the middle class around a single shared premise government
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: would stabilize capitalism and make.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: It work for ordinary people.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Now, he made a bunch of compromises that look that
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: still remained controversial, but he stayed out of race and
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: culture for the most part because he wanted to stick
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: to the economy and the democracy, and it allowed him
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: to essentially make big changes because he was pushing issues
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: that had the largest number of voters in support of them.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: And that's what we haven't had this century. We haven't
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: had a president who aimed for the sixty percent. Nobody's
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: going to win sixty percent of the ballot box. But
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: when I was growing up, presidents wanted to have sixty
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: percent job writings. And basically we've only had like a
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: couple of accidental moments this century where we've had presidents
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: get over sixty Obama for a brief period in w
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: right after nine to eleven, but we haven't had it
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: really at all beyond a couple of blips in those
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: two presidencies. It was a regular feature of Clinton's towards
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: the end, of Reagan's towards the end, not at any
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: of the presidents of the seventies, I will grant you that.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: But when you strive for sixty, you're gonna win over
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the middle. And I tell you I look at it
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: this way. I think the lack of credibility that both
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: parties right now have for being for being able to
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: deliver on the problems they claim they can fix, on
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: the fixes to the problems that are out there, this
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: is why I think there's a moment here for, you know,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: to shed the party label. And when you look at
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: when you look at these cross currents, in many ways,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: the more credible salesperson in this country is likely to
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: be somebody who left one of the two parties and
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: declared their independence. And if you want ability to try
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: to get your message out there, in some ways, not
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: being associated with one of the two major parties right
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: now might weirdly be an advantage. Look, there's no doubt
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I think the Democrats are poised to have a really
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: strong midterm year because you don't have to be for
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: anything in a midterm You can just be against. The
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: question is and look, and if you look at the
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Democratic response by Governor Spamberger, she sort of showed you
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: you can. You don't really have to be prescriptive to
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: have a pretty what comes across as a robust agenda
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and a robust platform to win office. Obviously, the real
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: challenge is going to be the next presidential in twenty eight.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: But I just look at all.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: This survey downa and you see there's an opportunity there
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: for an outsider to sort of to essentially go class
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: and dump the culture right, a good old fashioned class
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: politics here, the middle and working class versus the rich
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: and elite. That's a majority that's fairly easy to put
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: together if you're single mindedly focused on it. It's sitting
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: there to be to be rallied. The opportunity is there.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: These poll numbers from the American Communities Projects show it.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: The poll numbers that you see in the most recent Washington.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Post episodes show it. It's there.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: The question is, you know, are there are there any
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: current elected officials who see the moment and say, you
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: know what, I'm gonna shit, I'm gonna declare my independence
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: from talking points and declare my independence from from from
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: you know, being forced into a blue box or a
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: red box. The country just wants some stability and some
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: common sense and cut down the chaos and cut down
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: the divisiveness. That's all they wanted. That's all they wanted
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: from Joe Biden, right, That's why he ended up. That's
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: why he did win in twenty twenty And in some ways,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is conducting a presidency a bit more chaotic
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: than his first one, because he's already got lower approval
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: ratings than he did in that first in some ways
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: the first term. You know, it's funny, these swing voters
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: that he won over in twenty twenty four, including younger
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: voters and Latino voters, they weren't emphatic Trump supporters. They
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: just decided they didn't They wanted to change direction from
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: what Biden and Harris did, and Trump thought they became
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: permanent members of his coalition. Well they have left, big time,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: big lee, as the President might say, And it's because
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: I believe they thought they were voting for first term
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: tre and instead they got a whole different kind of
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, one that's a little less, a little more unfiltered,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: and even more unrestrained than he felt in the first turn.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: So ultimately, I think the best time to gauge right,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: be careful in the state of the Union polling.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: By the way, if you see.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Any among speech watchers, well among speech watchers it's going
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: to skew towards the president. It's the polling in a
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: week that will tell us if this had any impact.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: I'm skeptical, but I'm a data guy, so I'll wait
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: to see the data. All right, Let's sneak at a
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: break here when we come back. My conversation with Paul Oslander.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: He's a sea bridge and he's any any basically advises
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: people personal people in the private you know, the personal
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: private and equity fund or any of that stuff. But
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: it's some straightforward, you know, brutally honest advice. How do
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: you navigate, how do you plan for your own retirement?
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: How do you plan with savings with this chaotic Trump economy?
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: It's not easy.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: And this guy's on the front lines having to give
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: advice every day of the week, whether it's when do
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: you take social Security? All of those things, and look,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: politics isn't have been infused into everything, including people's personal savings,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: plans for retirement, in college.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Et cetera. So with that, let's sneak in a break.
• 41:34
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• 44:48
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna preview. I've got a fun little segment.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: As you know, I'm kind of a history buff, but
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: I'm also a campaign buff. And I've been sitting on
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: some material for a w while that I've been trying
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: to figure out.
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: Is it a book, is it a series? You know
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: what it is?
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: It is something I should be sharing with you. So
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks we're gonna we're gonna have
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: a fun, little year, year long countdown of some of
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: the greatest campaign stories.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: That need to be told.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: And it'll be about state wide races, not presidential races,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: statewide races. But I think you will enjoy it. But
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: in the meantime, it is a top five list.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: Top five, top fun.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Just to remind you, the last my last top five
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: in the Senate and the way I do it is
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: most likely to change parties. So number one on the
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: list last month and number one on the list this
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: month will be the same. It is North Carolina. Nothing
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: has changed in North Carolina other than it appears that
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Cooper is getting a larger financial lead. I think it
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: is it is you can see that it when you
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: can avoid a primary. He's not having to deal with
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: any of the inter party you know fights that are
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: taking place these days.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: It is the Democrat's seat to lose, and it would
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: be a monumental. Look, Michael Watley, I think is going
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: to raise a ton of money. It is a swing state.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: So but and maybe he can make it a referendum
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: on Cooper, but he's not the sitting governor, right, it
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: has been two years. I think that's going to be harder.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: And I think Cooper's scubernatorial terms are seen fairly positively.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a negative to it. He never
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: lost reelection. That matters as far as voters are concerned,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: So I think they're going to I think that this
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: is if anything, I think this is you know, I'd
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: still keep it in toss up, but it's pretty close
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: to being more lean Democrat than it is toss up
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: if you were playing the the rating word game there, right,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: lean versus I am only because Democrats haven't carried, have
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: struggled in federal races in North Carolina, and I haven't
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: won one since two thousand and eight. It's the only
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: reason I'd be a little hesitant. I like my old
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: friend Nathan Gonzales over at the Inside Elections. I think
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: he uses toss up tilt Democrat or toss up tilt Republican.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: I would probably be slightly more comfortable with toss up
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: tilt Democrat than I would be lean Democrat. But we're
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: getting pretty close to lean Democrat there. Number two on
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: the list is I think still main, and I think
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: it's because of Susan Collins is now.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Getting into.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: The Mitch McConnell territory, where you have the basis of
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: both parties being unhappy with you, and I think that's
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: a tough place to be. This is the worst poll
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: numbers she's ever had facing a reelection, but look, she's
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: running the fact that she's in as a relief. I
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: think there was a little bit of nervousness among Senate
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: Republicans that she might that she might call it a career.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: But I think she's been convinced that if Graham Plattner
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: comes out of the primary, that she can somehow beat Platner.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: I think she fears Mills more than Platner. Boy, you know,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: I am I'm kind of agnostic on this. I know
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Platner has this personal baggage and there's some authenticity issues
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: that may come, whether it's this tattoo story in various ways.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: But he may fit the time right, he may fit
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: the moment.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: But I'll tell you this.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: I thought the governor Mills campaign put out an opening
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: ad on Collins that was sort of mocking her regular
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: use of the word concerned when it comes to Donald
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: Trump decisions, if you will, and it was always concerned. Ever,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: courageous was an interesting I think that was the punchline.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: I thought it was really well done. And the other
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: thing it did is it highlighted how long she'd been
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: in Washington, because you saw Susan Collins going all the
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: way back to the mid nineties all the way through.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: So it it is.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think she's technically younger than Janet Mills,
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: So I think that It's not the age issue.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: But it's how long have you been in Washington?
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: I think is going to be more of a problem
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: than how old you are. I think, but obviously, look
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: that's a but her being in Washington too long, I
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: don't care what party you're in. I think that's going
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: to be more of a net negative than a net positive.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, I saw some internal polling that I got
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: off the record about one incumbent, and this is somebody
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: who's fairly popular and is it time for someone new?
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Was ahead of re electing incumbent by a good dub
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: by fifteen points. And this is an incumbent who's fairly
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: heavily favored at the moment. The natural inclination of this
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: electorate is for new people. Whether you're in a small
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: rural state or a big city, it is it is
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: nobody thinks the current leadership class deserves reelection, whatever that
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: means to them. And so even though your own congressmen
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: or woman is somebody that you may end up supporting,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: the general sentiment is they're looking right, the change candidate
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: is going to get the second.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Look.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: You may end up with the acumbent, but you're you're
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: going to take a look at the change candidate. So
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: I do think it's that type of atmosphere. So I'm
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: going to keep Maine in the second slot, and I
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: think you still have to in the third slot. Is
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: still Michigan, Donald Trump, It was third last one. I
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: don't worry. I'm shaking things up here in a second.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: But Michigan is still in the third slot. This is
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: a Democratic seat that they have to hold. They can't
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: afford to lose anyone. Democrats need four to a net
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: gain of four. Now is it three? And they maybe
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: can get somebody who's coxing with the Republicans to flip
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: to the Democrats. That's a possibility. I'll get to that
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: in a minute. But they need four and they can't
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: afford to lose any and the two vulnerable. I would
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: argue that there are four competitive Democratic held seats. Only
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: one is making my top five right now, because I
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: think generally the atmosphere is better for Democrats than Republicans.
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: But the four Democratic held seats that are have some
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: level of vulnerability to them are Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: and Minnesota. Now three of the four are retirees, right
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: it's an open seat of Michigan, open seat of Minnesota,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: open seat in New Hampshire. The fourth is osoff and
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: Georgia look asoff. When I started doing these top five
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: lists a few months ago, he was on this list,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: and he's no longer on it. I think you've seen
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: they haven't been able that there's no superstar candidate among
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: the Republicans. He is just a monster fundraiser and frankly
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: is just a really underrated campaigner. I think I've underestimated him.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: I have thought that he's benefited from sharing a ballot
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: with Warnock. So look, he's on there this time without him.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: But so far, I.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Think he's you know, he's he looks a lot stronger
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: now than I think a lot of a lot of
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Democrats or Republican strategists expected at this point in the cycle.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: But Michigan, of all of the four open seats, the
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: one that I think is the most vulnerable at the
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: moment is Michigan because of the very potentially divisive Democratic primary.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: To a lesser extent, that's a phenomenon also in Minnesota,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: you have sort of a a less high profile version
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: of what you're seeing in Minnesota than what you're seeing
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: in Michigan where you sort of have this, you know,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: sort of the insider candidate Hailey Stevens, the sort of
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: the Michigan outsider candidate Molly McMorrow, and then the progressive
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: outsider and I'll do else. I Yet that is still
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: I think that potential where the Democratic nominee is a
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: divisive figure inside his own her party is what any
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: of Mike Rogers on the other side, who's I think
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: the least maga of a Republican that they could get
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Trump to support, is potentially a fairly strong nominee. Now,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Trump has really screwed up things for Michigan Republicans like
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: he's trying to. I mean, the antagonism toward Canada doesn't
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: play well in Michigan. He's messed with this new bridge
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: that was meant to alleviate congestion on the one Bridge
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: to Windsor. But because the gentleman who sort of controls
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: the fees off of the one Windsor Bridge is going
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: to see some of his income hit because of the
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: opening of this new bridge, which was jointly paid for
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: by Canada and Michigan. The US government essentially a donation
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: to Donald Trump. Within twenty four hours got Donald Trump
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: to rail against this new bridge. None of that is
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: good for Mike Rogers. None of that is good, and
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: the business community of Michigan doesn't like it. It's a
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: really awkward situation that the President has set up for Rogers.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Rogers has to he can't he can't afford to be
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: in Trump's wrong side. He decided, well, he thinks he
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: can't afford. You know, at some point he's going to
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: have to break from him, but he's going to wait
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: till after after to make sure there's no last minute
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: primary challenger that shows up, right.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: But I do think that that.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: Trump's complicated The entire tariff regime is complicated life, I
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: think for every Midwestern senator in general, particularly in the
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: farm states. But I think it's also done. May hurt
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Rogers in the long run and may give whoever the
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Democratic now me is. But for now I have to
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: put this race. You know this would I have to
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: have five Republican seats in here if it wasn't for
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: the potential divisiveness of this Democratic primary. So number four
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: on the list right now is Alaska. Last month I
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: had Ohio there, and I'm dropping. I think Alaska you
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: saw that Chuck Schumer has spent a ton of money
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: to help Mary Patello sort of put together a field program,
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: sort of to try to rival the Lisa Murkowski field program,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: which is second to none in Alaska politics. Look, I
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: think Dan Sullivan is is a tough person to turn
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: into a Trumpian figure. But I do think that, you know,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: Mary Patello was certainly as one one state wide election
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: as then at large house member, and certainly has a
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: pretty good as a pretty good profile in the state.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: But I think this is you know, pretty tough. But
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: here's the wild card, and it's Lisa Rakowski. I'm very
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: curious what she does in this race. Remember she endorsed
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: Mary Patello when she ran for the House. I think
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: she has a good relationship with the inside all everything.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: I understand.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: I've got some family and Anchorage, so that's sort of
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: pretty plugged into Alaska politics. And you know, there's I
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: don't think Markowski and Sullivan. I don't think the two
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: of them. I think they get along pretty well. I
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: think they see think for the you know, I think
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: they both sort of see themselves as Alaskans before they're partisans. Right,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: So I you know, but I do know she's skeptical
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: of giving Trump too much power. And that's what's going
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: to be interesting here. But I talked about I here's
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: something else to ponder. If Paltello wins that senen see
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: and let's say Democrats net three. Let's say they pick
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: up North Carolina, Maine, in Alaska, but they come up
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: short in Ohio, they come up short in Iowa, come
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: up short in Texas, so they've netted three. It's fifty
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: to fifty. Jada Vance breaks the tie unless one of
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: the senators coxing with the Republicans decides to instead caucause
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: with the Democrats. Lisa Murkowski's likely her term ends in
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. It's up in her seats up in
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. This could be her last two years
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: of Congress.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: Does she.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: She has been on the record sort of set, you
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: know not. She didn't come across as a no on
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: this question. She was evasive but didn't which was never definitive,
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: which is all that matters. Democrats win the three seats,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: and one of the three is Alaska. I could easily
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: see Lisa Murkowski going, look my state, I said, you know,
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: I can you know my state has decided they want
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: a Democratic Senate this cycle, So for now I'm going
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: to organize with them. I don't think it's out of
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: the realm of possibility. So Alaska's fourth on the list,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: and in number five I'm going to put Texas. I
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: think we have learned a couple of things. First of all,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: the fact that so much money is poured into this race,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: that it is an enormous amount of money is being spent.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: The two biggest spenders right now are trailing in the
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: polls in each side. Corning and his allies trailing in
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: the polls, tall Rico and his allies trailing in the polls.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: I think the open court look it is, it's going
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: to be a runoff on the Republican side, for sure.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: There is a third cannon on the ballot among Democrats.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: It's a guy, a lesser known candid, not a lot
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: of money. But if we're looking at it, all the
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: polling is indicated that that Tallarico Crockett's going to be
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: very close forty nine eight out of the question. And
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: then we go to another runoff. And there's all sorts
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: of game theory here that I've heard from various Texas watchers.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: So Crockett wins the primary bad news for corn right
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: if it's corn and Paxton, because the assumption among Republicans
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: is anybody can beat Crockett tall Rico wins. Do Senate
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: Republicans panic beg Trump to endorse Cornin, and maybe Trump
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: does it because he wants to save a senden See,
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: or they both go to runoffs and everybody stays out,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: and that becomes just a we get basically two and
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: a half more months of more cowboll out of Texas.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: The point is is that here's what we do know.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Texas is not a deep red state right now. It
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: may end up going back to more rhetoric version of itself,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: but in the moment, it's not a very red state.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Right There's you know, look, protectionist policies aren't good. Isn't
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: good for Texas business. So tariffs have not been good
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: for Texas. This this this border issue actually hasn't been
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: great for the Texas economy. You've got a divided Republican
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: party over this education plan by the governor and the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: voucherization programs which are not this is not universally popular,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: This is very it's not even universally popular among Republicans,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: it's got its detractors on the right because school choice
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: in rural America is tough to actually make happen. We'd
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: love to have school choice, where do you got to
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: go fifty miles? And then the alternative is just homeschooling.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Some parents would love to do that, not all parents can.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: So you've got that issue sitting.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: Over the head.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: Then you've got the character issues of Ken Paxton and
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: one of the things that's been well, Trump maybe mister
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Teflon when it comes to Epstein and Trump maybe mister
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Teflon when it comes to this other stuff. Voters have
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: been harder on anybody else that has tried to come
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: across as Teflon Don. So I'm skeptical that somehow Texas
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: voters are going to hold their nose on the morals
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: and ethics stuff when it comes to Backson. Maybe I'm wrong,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: and boy Paxton Paxston is going to hope that he's
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: got the Teflon that Don has, that he wears the
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: Teflon Don coding. We'll see, but I'm putting Texas in
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: that fifth slot. But look on my watch list on here,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: Look I was competitive. It's interesting they Nathan Sage got
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: out so the Democratic primary. What that really means is
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: that it guarantees that their Democrats don't have to go
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: to their weird, funky convention clause. If no candidate gets
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: more than you know, gets thirty five percent in a eyeway,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: they go to some convention, which then turns into a problem.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: The unique thing about what I saw in Iowa recently
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: is the Republicans put out a poll of the Democratic
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: primary indicating that Schumer's favorite candidate was trailing badly. It
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: was trailing Zach Wall's badly, Josh Turk. I'm trying to
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: figure out why they released it. They want to put
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: some pressure on They're hoping to create some tension. Hasn't
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: really been an animated primary on that side of the aisle,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: so we'll see. But I found it interesting that the
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: Republicans made it clear that they wanted, Hey, look, we
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: think Zach Walls is running away with this, and I
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: think in their mind they do. Again, I don't quite
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: get it. I think they want to run against Walls,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: not against Turk, who's got a profile, you know, a paralympian,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: and he's got sort of a patriotic profile from a
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: redder part of the state. Anyway, I'm trying to figure
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: out the three dimensional chess that that those guys I
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: want to be playing over there, and then keep an
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: eye on South Dakota. You know, the Christy Nome exit
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: ramp is being built. The question is what's the exit
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: ramp look like? Is it another job in the administration?
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Does she get you know, is it that she run
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: primaries Mike Rounds for US Senate. If she primaries Mike
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: Rounds for US Senate, you could have a mini Texas situation. Right,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: Mike Rowns is a better general election candidate than he
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: would be a primary Republican primary candidate. Mike Grounds is
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: not the most pro MAGA guy. Christy Nome obviously made
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: a decision to go down the Maga road. She obviously
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: wouldn't jump in if Trump wouldn't endorse her. Does he?
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: Does Trump want to cross John Thune here, who he
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: is a pretty decent working relationship. It's it's a wildcard
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: that isn't crazy. Sure numbers among the Republican base in
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: South Dakota are better than Rounds's numbers, even though she
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: might be a weaker candidate. If she got in as
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: the nominee, and it certainly would expose a lot of
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: wounds inside the Republican Party. And I'm certainly how many
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: of these divisive primaries do they want. Then again, if
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Trump wants a Republican Party in his image, Mike Grounds isn't.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: Part of that image. So I will tell you this.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: I've had Brian Beangs, who is the independent candidate running
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: in that race, because Democrats are unlikely to nominate anybody in.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Bangs is sort of from the Dan Osborne school of running,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: you know, sort of being an opposition but not comfortable
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: associating with either of the major parties. I think you
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: have to start taking a look at that candidacy. If
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: no one gets into this race, I think it's a
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: semi long shot. But there's no doubt that an exit
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: ramp is being constructed in the West wing for Christinoman
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski. The question is whether a there is an
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: exit ramp there they would take willingly, and b whether
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: the exit ramp is indeed South Dakota Senate. But just
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on. And then again I
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: go back to the other race. I want to mention
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: just don't sleep on Minnesota. I think Michelle Tafoya is
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: a really strong recruit. She's consolidating support quickly, she's sort
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: of getting She's gotten much further ahead in the primary
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: than I expect her to get pretty quickly, and you
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: could have a divisive primary ala Michigan between Angie Craig
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: and Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor. She's pretty progressive. Angie
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: Craig is more sort of in the Alissa Slotkin Abigail
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: Spamberger school of Democratic members of Congress. But in Minnesota
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: that might not be you know, she might not might
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: not work in a Democratic primary. We'll see then again,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: Amy Klobashar being the likely Democratic nominee for governor, I
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: think Angie Craig's a little bit more of an Amy
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Klobeeshar Democrat than the lieutenant governor is. But keep an
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: eye on that primary. If it gets messy, if it
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: gets gaza, if you get gazed up a little bit,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: and maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. Right, we know
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: Michigan's gonna does that, does that divide the party a
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: little bit and does it end up helping Tafoya?
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: I think if this.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Were not I think Tafoya would be a stronger candidate
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: for Senati if Donald Trump weren't president at the moment,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: like I think, as an outsider, maybe even as a challenger.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: And so, you know, this could be the first of
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: two campaigns. Remember, if Clobashar wins the gubernatorial race, they'll
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: be immediately another seat up in twenty eight because there'll
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: be a special election to fill out that, to fill
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: out Cloba Shar's term. So, you know, Tafoya against an
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: appointed senator in twenty eight if she, you know, it
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: runs a respectable race that you know does like you
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: know what we're watching potentially in Michigan with Mike Rogers.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: It's on the ballot last time, lost in a competitive race.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Now he's there again this time. So Minnesota's on that
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: watch list. I think the overall national environment makes it
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: an uphill battle for Tafoya, makes it uphill battle against
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: the wind. It was already an uphill battle. Now she's
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: got wind in her face, the political wind. But it's possible.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: This is the you know that this is just year
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: one of a four year of basically a three year
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: campaign to eventually get to the US Senate in twenty
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: twenty eight. So there you go. There's my top five.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: Let me recount it. Number one, North Carolina, number two,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: Main number three, Michigan number four, Alaska number five, Texas.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: Most likely to flip. And I will just tell you this.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: I think we all know our two political parties, Paxton
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: versus Crockett the ultimate sort of matchup where the party
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: elites didn't want either nominee. I think for where our
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: politics are headed, that might be the more intriguing matchup.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: All right, let's take some questions, ask Chuck. All right,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: I'll be honest, it's late for me. Well, it's actually
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: very early Wednesday morning as I'm tapping this because I
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: wanted you guys have the most up to date feed.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: So I'm only going to do three questions. First three
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: on my list. Tyler, Salt Lake City. What strikes me
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: about all this recent tariff business is that since Trump's
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: tariffs are struck down, it feels as though Trump and
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: AI are fighting against American business owners. They've basically said
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: there's no way you're getting any of the tariff money back,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: almost as if American business owners are the enemy as
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: well as the country on whom Trump wants to impost tariffs.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: I suppose it's really no surprise. Ultimately, Trump's interest seem
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: to land on himself only. Look, I agree, and I
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: think that this is what's going to happen. He's going
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: to have lawsuits and this is what we, like I said,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: we talked about last April, which is eventually this is
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: going to end up costing the government more money than
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: they ever collect. Right, He's We're going to have to
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: give the money back. The federal government's going to get sued.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: These folks are going to get their money back, and
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: no doubt it'll get spent twice, which means it'll only double,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: you know, probably cost you this even more in our debt.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: And you're right, it is you know, it's particularly small
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: business owners.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: The tariffs hit small business owners more than any other part.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: Of this economy.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: Next question Scott c PLASIDUS, New Mexico. Hey, I see
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: that Trump has pulled his endorsement of Colorado Congressman Jeff
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Heard and his endorsement primary challenger Hope Schleppmann. Congressman Herd
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: spoken against the tariffs and is in favor of the
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Scoti's decision. Do you think that Congressman Heard or other
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: city of congressman persons running against a Trump endorsed primary
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: challenger could win their primaries. If so, who are likely
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: candidates and would it be a sign of some rust
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: in the joints of Trump's armors? As always thinks you
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: offer us we are Richard Forret. Well, thank you for
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: saying that. Look, this is one of my favorite primaries
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: to watch because I do think if Trump wants to
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: continue to rule the party by fear, he's got to
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: be willing to use his endorsement to punish anybody that
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: doesn't go along with his with his agenda. This is
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: very dangerous to do. This is a tough district and
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: heard one of close race, and now he's only making
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: it harder, which means that House, the House Republican Majority
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: Committee is going to have to spend money to try
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: to save an incumbent against a presidential endorsement. Saying what
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: happened with Massy, I think they're worth watching, right if
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: especially you know we're going to find out. I think
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: Hurd's primary is not to August and Massy. He's going
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: to take place in May and Massie and Kentucky I
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: think will tell us.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: We'll tell us.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: We'll tell us what the atmosphere is right, how how
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: to vote. It is the president's base to the president.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: I think we'll get a clue on Herd's chances in
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: May with the Massy primary in Kentucky. All right, last
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: question comes from Mike and Honolulu. Hey there, thank you
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: for all the work you do on the podcast. First
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: thing I listened to on the days you drop nice
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: so seeing articles on Maha pesticide fight stalling and Florida Rep.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: Maria Alvirus Salazar's Dignity Act, et cetera. How much will
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: all these really move voters at the midterms. I feel
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: like I've met a lot of folks over the past
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: few years and in spite of disappointment or frustrations, have
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: still supported the Republican ticket.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: Thanks Mike and Honolulu.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: Well, I look at it. I think I've compared it
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: to erosion of a riverbed. Right, you don't see it
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: every day if you check the river bed every day,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: but if you come back once a month, then you
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: can notice when the riverbed is eroding. And I don't
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: think any of these these things, you know, take take
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: their toll cumulatively a bit, And I think you.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: Know, it's these little chip away So you lose.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: Some Maha moms because essentially, you know, Monsanto bought Trump's
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: executive order on the pesticides thing with a massive donation.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: You know, are you losing everybody in support of Kennedy. No,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: but you're losing a little bit. You're going to lose
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: some small business owners under your insistence on continuing to.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: Execute this terraf regime.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Right, You're going to lose a few of the civil
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: libertarians on how you've handled Ice.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: You're certainly going to lose some.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: In the who didn't want military adventurism, whether it's Venezuela
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: or RN or elsewhere. Right, And it's just chip away,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: chip away, chip away. And if you look at the
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: national poll numbers for him, he doesn't gain supporters at
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: the moment. He hasn't gained.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: Supporters in a long time.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: It is literally he's rowing a boat with holes in it,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: and he's got somebody trying to get water out of
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: the boat so it doesn't sink, and they're trying to row,
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: and water's coming and he's taking on water and so
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe it's a slow leak. Maybe he can
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: get to shore before the boat sinks. But I take
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: your look, and I think it is again, I don't
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: look at it to his base supporters, it's really about
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: independence in this fast medal. You know, where he's got
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: to worry his supporters or is supporters excited about what
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: he's doing or are they simply devoted and saying, oh, no,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: it hasn't changed.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: But are they going to crawl unbroken glass to vote right?
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: You know, this is where I have skepticism about the
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: rural communities in the agricultural Midwest. I mean, farmers have
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: taken it on the chin with these tariffs. You know,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: this is this is why I I'd be fascinated to
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: watch a Republican primary in South Dakota between Nome and Rounds.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Rounds who has been a skeptic of these tariffs, and Nome,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: who will have no choice but to defend the president
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: on it. That you know, it's like, Okay, let's see,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: let's see what a campaign like that looks like. There's
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: no primary in Iowa on the Republican side that's active,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: but that'd be another one where if you did, you
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: would you'd possibly have a divide on how the tariffs
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: impact the economy in the Midwest. So I look at
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: all of that and it's just sort of chip away,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: chip away, chip away, chip away. You know, you're not
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: going to have this massive What you're going to have
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: is some people just don't show up the vote. Others
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: maybe do vote third party, and still others may actually
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: cross the aisle, at least in congression ways, because you
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: can you can rationalize voting for the other party and
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: still be a Trump supporter. But you may think, you
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: know what, he needs a little check or the government
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: needs a check. And I don't like these tariffs. I
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: like Trump doing these other things, but you know, let me,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: let me get Congress to hold him back on tariffs.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: You know, that's another It's a in some ways, the
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: opposition to Trump is almost penalty free, if if in
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: some of the in in some cases here for some
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: of these Midwestern governors or Midwestern voters. So you know,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: it's it's ah, you're right, that one isn't going to
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: like cause this massive groundswell of people leaving them. But
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: it's the chip aways. It's the political death by.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: A thousand cuts.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: All Right, I'm gonna go get some sleep. Thank you
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: for tuning in. Thanks for sticking around and I'll see
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: you in twenty four hours.