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NFL Week 14 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is our week fourteen Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chadmill,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: coming off of a miracle two and three week in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the contest. We are underdog players, and these underdogs have
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: not been doing well the past few weeks. We're going
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about that. A lot of
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: lines we liked on Sunday when we did our live
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: show on Sunday, they have already moved, which is why
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: you need to listen to the Sunday show if you
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: want to get the best of the number. On today's show,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: we will get to our Simon says in our exec decision.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: On Thursday, we will finalize our big Balls bet of
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: the Week, our Foxhoul, our Survivor, our moneyline parlay, and
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: don't forget this episode, we'll look at the entire board
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as we begin narrowing down the five picks we'll enter
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: in the Favorites Podcast. One hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest still open for sign up, awarding weekly
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: and season long cash prizes at favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: We know what our favorite coach, Mike Tomlin would say
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: about that.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: We will not go gently. We're gonna unleash hell here
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: in December. We're gonna go in a tag mode because
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: we have to, because that's what's required.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Now, let's bring in my co host, my bff, my companion,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Mike and Padre professional Better Simon Hunter Heados Simon Simon,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: we're coming off our first ever live show, literally hundreds
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: of our friends capacity crowd, not just for the show,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: but for four hours of watching, hanging, meeting, greeting, chatting
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Hoboken, New Jersey.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: We want to thank Joe and his crew at the
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: bar who helped our entire team at the Action Network
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: pull off a great watch party for fans. We had trivia,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: we had swag, we had free drinks. Oh and by then,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: by the way, we executed a live broadcast. Really overwhelming, Simon,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: to get to connect with so many folks who have
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: been listening to the show.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely changed my view on a lot of things
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: about their show. And pretty crazy chat. Not much you
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: can say, but yeah, the group that we met with
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: that or Sunday night. Were very funny, very happy to
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: see us, and it was just really good vibes. And yeah,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: like the open bar and watching the games with everyone
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: was just a great time. Like drinking with people, laughing
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: with people, talking about the games and all of it.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: It was just great. So it was calling them. It's
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: kind of all a blur, right, Chad. Just you're just
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: meeting so many people, But I can't say a bad
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: thing about a single person I met.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what, your response has been really really
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: interesting because you know, we've done this podcast for a
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: few years, but it really started for you and I
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: during the pandemic and we haven't had a chance other
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: than through social media to connect with fans. I say
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: this would with all humility. I've just been doing the
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: pod longer than you. We've had events. I've been to
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: events through ESPN that were focused on other things where
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: I got to connect with people who would be in
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: interacting with work that I have done or work that
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I have been a part of. And so your reaction
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: to all this has been fascinating. It's been and I
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: know we were in the office together on Monday, really
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: cool to see. I feel like that was it was
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: special for you.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just interesting people to give up their Sundays
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: to come up. And again, we didn't know it was
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: gonna be an open bar. I mean now that we
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: know the next one people you got to get there.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: It's literally free drinks and really good food. I mean
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: the place had really good food like that bar, really
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: good food, like you wouldn't think it's a bar food.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: I mean it's it's really that good. So yeah, just
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: I think you're the same feeling in the chat when
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: you walked in there. I couldn't believe it, like, yeah,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: the whole our stupid faces are everywhere and it was
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: just like what is happening right now? So yeah, the
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: amount of people that showed love and came out then
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: reciting your opening cracking up to like the whole Hello
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: sigment thing was really Yeah, that was great. It was.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: It was totally great. Again, kudos to our production team
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: who did an amazing job not just creating a real
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: experience for fans that was an activation, almost having trivia
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: about the show, giving away swag, but then actually executing
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: on a live broadcast in a non studio setting, creating
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a studio show from scratch. It's just not easy. And
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the good news is we're running it back in January.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: We'll have more details about wild Card Weekend as we
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: get closer, but SI and I and a whole host
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: of action folks will be together for watch parties over
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Wildcard Weekend. Live Favorites over Wildcard Weekend. We'll we'll get
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: to that. And by the way, thank god we were
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: on the niners because after the run we had on
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the early games going zero to three, we needed a
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: no sweat cover to keep the mood light when we
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: finally went on the air. As a reminder, the Favorites
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three
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• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one and older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. Eighteen and older in Kentucky,
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  Speaker 1: gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Virginia or one hundred bets off in Iowa
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: terms conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every episode
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: of the Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube. Here's an update four our Week
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: thirteen slates. Press to our first place winner, try Cycler
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: one sixty seven. Enjoy the cash. The Producer's cuple ward
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: goes to Whalers Win. Sorry, Buddy, I still hope you're
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: from my neck of the woods. For finishing dead fucking
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: last and the Week twelve contest going on five and
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: missing the tie breaker, Please email producer Matt Mitchell at
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: podcast at actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Thanks for playing. Week fourteen. Our contest is now live
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: and the tiebreaker is total passing yards on Monday night football.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Good luck. Everybody has some futures updates. Tyreek Hill, we
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: got him to lead the league in receiving at nine
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: to one.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: Real good.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean now he's all alone by three hundred yards.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: Al most just you gotta keep it winning. That injury
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: bug is little, got to.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Keep him healthy. Yeah, Phil Carter, Jalen Carter is still
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: on pace, but not a great show him by the
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: entire Eagles defense. I feel like our Christian McCaffrey bet
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: at twenty five to one for MVP. I know, Dak
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: is like the guy that was talking about right now
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey and the Niners went out. They're gonna be
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: the number one seed. He's going to lead the league
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: in touchdowns, he's going to lead the league in rushing.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: He's gonna get close to setting some records. He's going
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: to make a case for MVP.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you, though, they're gonna have. It's either gonna
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: be him with Tyreek for Offensive Player of the Year.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: That's that's the fight for him. He just doesn't have
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the storyline. It's such a QB award, especially this season.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, like we even we're gonna get to it
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: this upcoming week. Wait, do you hear people? The QB
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: matchups We're going to talk about this week and why
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: it's such an important position and why they protect it
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: like they do because this is what happens when these
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: guys get hurt. And yeah, that's the thing I always
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: tell talk to Giants fans about the Eli Manning. Eli
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Manning was not the best quarterback, but every Sunday he
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: was there and he always put them in a position
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: to maybe win a game. And like, I think ninety
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: percent of us who have just suffered through back quarterbacks,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: I mean you, as a Bass fan, suffered through it.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: It's like, if you could just get a guy who
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: could be consistent and healthy, you're winning. You're winning that
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: life in football because these quarterbacks just can't survive. I
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: mean even last night trebor Arts' injury. It's just crazy
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: that these guys can last a full season with all
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: the little weird things that can happen in a game
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: that could go wrong. So yeah, some ugly, ugly matchups
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  Speaker 2: this week. Chad.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: You know, it's funny you talk about quarterbacks and the
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Bears sucking at quarterback and other teams finding their way.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: We were on the Packers on Monday Night football and
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: my buddies in Chicago, who you know, I bet with
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: and send me their money so I can bet for them.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: In Connecticut, they were ripping me because we had to
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: root for the Packers, and I'm like, look, guys, I'm
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: just so glad after weeks of struggling the Packers finally
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: have a quarterback back again, because it's so it's been,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: it's been. It was just terrible for them to have
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: to go through that kind of drama. Here's the stat
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: that is killing me right now, Simon. Since week eight,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: favorites are sixty five and twenty two straight up, forty
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: eight and thirty seven against the spread, So the favorites
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: are covering it nearly a fifty seven percent clip. By
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: the way, the last two weeks twenty and nine against
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the spread. So like, look, this is what we do.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: We bet underdogs. That's where we see the value. Historically,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: it's really frustrating that so many of these underdogs that
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: we like to bet have been not coming through for us.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: And this week we have New England at Pittsburgh on
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Thursday night. Obviously can't go in the contest. We don't
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: want to do it, you pointed out at the show
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: because the Pats are on a no bet list lowest
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: total since two thousand and seven. It opened at thirty two,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: it's down to thirty and a half. About it, Mitch
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Trubisky against god knows who. Biggest luck rankings game of
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: the week, Week thirteen or later unlucky road teams in
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: our luck rankings. I the Pats fifteen to one and
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: one against spread the past couple of years. They have
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: a massive luck gap in this game. Pittsburgh the number
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: one lucky, no Number two lucky team in the NFL
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: according to our rankings. I mean, we don't want to
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: bet the Patriots, but if we're gonna look at something
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: in this game, we're betting the Patriots.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah. But when we already talked about we've never seen
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: anything like this that there. It's three weeks now. In
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: three weeks, they've given up a total of twenty six
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: points and they are zero for three in those games.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: So they go up ten points and they lost that game.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: They give up ten points, lost the game. And they
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: just gave up six points and lost the game. So
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: I kept saying all the time, Chad, people are gonna
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: blame Bill. Bill is gonna be one of the best
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: defensive minds in all football. Forever. The guy is so
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: incredible at what he does. He lost his two best
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: defenders and this defense is still doing this here in
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: late this like into December again. Villagers will always get heat,
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: and I get where their fans come from, but it's
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: a QB league. If you don't have a quarterback, you're dead.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: And what they have failed at is they have not
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: drafted or replaced the wide receiver position. They never got
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: that next gronk at the tight end position, and the
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: offense just never found the quarterback. And it's just been
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: a total disaster. So it keeps me warm at night, honestly,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: that the padscans are suffering. They're going through hell. This
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: is this is life, like, this is life as an
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: NFL fan. Yeah, talking to our fans from Boston, it
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: was just funny where the old heads, you know, they
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: live through at Boston. Yeah, terrible football teams in the
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: eighties and nineties, and then the young these young kids
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: were spoiled for this last twenty years. You know, Green
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Bay is the only one that gets away with this, right,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: they get to go from Hall of Fame with the
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: Hall of Fame to maybe another Hall of Famer. The
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: rest of us there's always gonna be dead periods, and
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: they're in one right now. But it's going as the
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Patriots fans should. You guys are horrible and I can't
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: wait for this offseason. This QB class is amazing. So
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: if there was a year to tank and be bad,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: the Patriots are doing it perfectly, So you could take
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: them here chat, I wasn't joking. I'm not betting them
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: like that won me a bunch of money last week
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: taking the Chargers. Think it closed at four and a half.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: The pros can't help themselves. The pros will just keep
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: betting this Patriots team. They're gonna keep feeding you some
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: BS line and I just can't do it this. This
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: team has got no heart, no soul. This season. They
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: do defensively, but offensively they don't. So yeah, thank god.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, you don't need to make a pick for
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: this on Thursday.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: No, we're not. We're not touching this. I'm gonna enjoy
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: my Thursday night. It's going to be lovely.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Yah. I does want to bet on Mitch Trubisky. I'm
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: not betting on as a favorite.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: There's no world, no freaking way, not a chance, you say,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick is one of the greatest defensive minds ever.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I say, I say Bill Belichick basically, Zach Taylor. Zach
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Taylor terrible without Joe Burrow, brilliant with Joe Burrow, Bill Belichick,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: terrible historically without Tom Brady, with great with Tom Brady.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: That's that's what the record shows at this point.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Looks Fellas. I am sick of this.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, I can't stand much more of this.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: It's a joke.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: It's a joke. Hey, listen. The other night of the event,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, when we were talking about these games, said
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: he would turn off our mics if we asked people
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: to bet the Jets. Look, Matt Mitchell not having a
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: great day to day. It's very possible he might not
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: even be recording this. Let's talk about the Jets Houston.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: At the New York Jets plus six and a half
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: numbers moved up on Saturday. On Sunday night, you pinpointed,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: this is a game you get to bet.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: I know, I hate it, And that was my favorite
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: thing from the loud crowd. The groan from the people
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: in the crowd was amazing. When I didn't even say
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: bet the Jets and all I simply said was Jets
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: and it was just a sickness and a groan from
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: the crowd. That was great.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. The other night we were watching the Oncos
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Texans game. He was incredibly frustrated by the Texans offense.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: He kept saying, how like it's such a degenerate.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: The sum is less, It's like it's less than the
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: sum of its parts. Right, Individ was.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Going to cover his Houston bet, but it came through
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: for you.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Came through. It came through. Look the Jets defense against
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: good QBS during their recent slide. Yeah, uh, you know,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: as reality with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle had set in,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: has kind of been mediocre. You know, Dak terrible game, Tua. Now,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: I mean that the Jets defense played terribly. Dak was
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: a blowout for the Cowboys to a blowout for the Dolphins.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Herbert they won. C. J. Stroud is a top notch QB.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: So are we looking at this as a Texans top
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: notch QB or Jets to the right side at six
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Of course, the Jets on the right side. What the
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: hell are you going to do here? Chad? Like no one,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: no one's gonna listen to us. No one's gonna bet it,
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: so it feels like a dead thing for us. But
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you, the pros are gonna love it. I'm
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: gonna bet it. I don't have a single penning on
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: this game because I know what to do with these
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: games like Houston. I have to look. But I'm almost
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: positive I saw cgs leading the league right now in
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: passing yards. Yes, yeah, he is right, so a rookie.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is this is such a this has
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: been such a weird season. But I feel like that
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: perfectly sums up this AFC right now that we had.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, what do we talk all preseason? This is
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: one of the greatest groups of quarterbacks ever on one
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: side of football, right one conference side where you know,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: we all knew it was gonna be the Eagles. We
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: all knew it was gonna be Dallas. I mean, this
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: surprise has definitely been how well the Lions were early
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: in the season, not so much of late, but the AFC.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you go back and less than anyone,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: we all sound like idiots, right We're all talking about
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs, talking about the Bills, talking about Joe Burrow
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: and talking I mean guess Lamar showed up. But it's
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: just funny this year that you know, none of us
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: here will be shocked if the AFC winner is Miami,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Like they're they're set up right in this division, that
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: you're in a division with two of the worst teams
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: right now in football, the Patriots and the Jets. And
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: it's just been a very weird year. Fancy like it
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: did not play out like we thought, where Joe Burrow
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: might be on the out, this team might have been
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: the outside looking and Sam with goes for Buffalo. So
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: I can't quit the Jets people. I'm sorry to tell you,
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: but this is a great match for them. Like the
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: thing that's so painful. It's like one of my favorite
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Stucky jokes that Sucky always talks about, where you have
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: a great team if they just punt the whole game,
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: they would win. The Jets would win if they simply
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: just punted all game. Like the only reason they lost
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: that game was because of the turnovers. They had three
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: turnovers to I believe it land at zero, right, So yeah,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: that was a decider. I mean, we needed a field
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: goal for I think a whole half, and we would
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: have covered that number and we couldn't get a field goal.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's how horrible the quarterback play is right
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: now the Jets. So yeah, I'm not gonna waste the people,
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: but I guarantee when I do sharp calls the programma
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: be honest. Like there's only one book showing the six
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: and a half, so that means pros are already hitting
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: this number at six and a half. I thought we
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: would get it to seven, just because we don't know
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: who the quarterback is gonna be. Man doesn't see if
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: it's gonna get there. So yeah, if you won, Houston,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: don't touch the number. Just tease it. This This is
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: just this is a classic spot that Houston should lose
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: this game. Like Houston's a different team on home then
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: at home than on the road. I mean, quickly, people
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: forget this same Houston team, basically the same exact Houston
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: team lost to Carolina Panthers. Like the Panthers got their
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: only win at home against this Houston team. They're just
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: a different team on the road. So especially we talk
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: all the time Houston has a favorite different So yeah,
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: I like the Jets here, but I promise you I
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: won't make it. Simon says, I won't do any of
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: that people. I'm just again, I'm not gonna do it
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: now that I met all you people, and I feel
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: horrible making you bet these Jets quarterbacks.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Right. Yeah, it's by the way Thursday. I guarantee this
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: is big balls, better of the week. We just did it.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: It's going to happen again. I'm telling you this will
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: be in the final five Bucks in Atlanta. Bucks are
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: visiting the Falcons. Number is two and a half. This
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: is going to be one of those games where we
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: want to back the Falcons. Right. The bets are on
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, the money are on the Falcons. Shout out
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: to the irrepressible O'Neill family from Burlington, Massachusetts, the life
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: of the goddamn party. On Sunday night, I was talking
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: to the O'Neills, the two boys and their father. One
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: of the sons was telling me about he played football
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: at Wake and he played with the guy in the Falcons,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: and he said to me, look, you guys aren't Atlanta
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Falcons podcast. I will not try to do the accent,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: but I'm telling you he knows it. I know it,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: you know it. We're on the Falcons here.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: I want to be on dample. But Chad, you're right
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: at this number. Again, it's not crazy value for me.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: I have this number three, it's two and a half.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: So yes, I like Atlanta, but I honestly want to
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: take the bucks. I just I hate this Atlanta team.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: They've been so lucky in so many ways, and you
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: know you need luck to win in this league. So
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: not gonna knock them for it, but this this matchup
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: feels like right, like they should win by a field
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: goal the value showing two and a half. I'm not
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: going to just blindly back the books. Right of the books.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: They're the ones that are sucking up. They've been hanging
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: bad numbers. I mean, the most egregious one this past
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: week had to be that college football game. What was it?
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: Washington Oregon? Like, why tough? Yeah? What the fuck was that?
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: No one's model was that everyone just trusted the books.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: If you back Oregon there, because you're like, I don't
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: get this line, I'm just gonna guess I back Oregon here.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: But yeah, they've been shit. I hope they fired the
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: people that they made that number for their book. But
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: Sam goes here, it's like, I'm supposed to trust the number,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. It's tough for me to get
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: there right now. Atlanta t it's a little stinky, little
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: stinky of a number here at minus two and a
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: half because they're happy to take this money right now.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: I'm looking in our app The money's pouring in right
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: now on Atlanta, and only a couple of books have
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: moved to three. So definitely a game. I haven't bet yet,
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: but wanted to keep your eye on that. If you
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: do it like Atlanta, I would grab it two and
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: a half now if you want to bet it, We're
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: in Atlanta.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: Falcons podcast. The O'Neil brothers know it all right. So
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: I'm outside the Shepherd and Knucklehead, a beautiful Hoboken, New
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Jersey with three VIPs who flew all the way here.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I'm going to have them and introduce themselves.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: Chris O'Neill, Shane Daddy Tall Stacks O'Neill, Brendan James.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Where are you boys? From Burlington, Mass Boston? Baby? Is
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: it nice there?
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: It's too expensive, but we ham of you over tonight.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: These guys the moment heaters like the fucking world's ended.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: It's like you're smoking behind a dumpster at a high school.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: That's how you know there are real VIPs of this show.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: We have fun. Do you have a special message for
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Chad and Sevens for their picks this week?
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: I want to say hello to Mike Weiss, my buddy
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: that worked that listens to this and Chad and I'm
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: wit take it. I know they want whoever is playing
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs tonight don't matter. I want we take it
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: off for the mortgage.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: What happens if Chad's ivan can't start picking the winners, We're.
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: Gonna start listen to calling Gallway with Is this see
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: of money?
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: How damn all right? One of the games we talked
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: about on Sunday Detroit at Chicago. At the time it
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: was five, I said I liked Chicago at five. Of course,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: I was in the middle of recording the podcast. I
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: couldn't bet it. By the time we got off the
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: show it was four. I still forgot to bet it
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: until Monday morning. When is it three and a half? Uh? Chad?
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: Is it?
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Chad? Chad? Chad is a sharp Milman. That's what we
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: say about this because Milman was all over it. But
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: now it's at three and in three I don't know, man,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: I feel like we've lost all the value. If we
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: were getting the three and a half, it was still
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the hook. But that rush defense is improving for the Bears.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: It's kind of a justin field statement game. If there
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: is one, I feel like the Bears should just move
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: off them. But the Troy's not looking right. We talked
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: about this on Sunday. Something's off there.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the real reason though those numbers
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: moved is I was giving shatt at s Flowers this
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: today and I kind of found out why this number
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: has moved. It's supposed to be like a tsunami in
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Chicago for this game, Like it's supposed to be a
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: really bad wind and rain. So to me, I don't
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: know if i'd bet as much as guys clearly have
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: bet this number to move it this much because of that.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: But obviously, if that's true, the advantage is massive to
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: this Bears team. Like Evan just posted eighty permra wins
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: or predicted right out for this football game. So you
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: have a team in Bears that I mean, is there
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: a better team to run an RPO with? Like if
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: my can run the ball in that weather, we I mean,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: I remember the scenario last year we won big and
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: this exact spot back in the team and the Bears
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers and the forty as were
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: a pretty big favorite and it was a tsunami and
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: the Bears played really well in it, like they were
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: good in that weather because they want to run the
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: ball like that. And yeah, on the other side, you know, Detroit,
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: they're better indoors. That's that's the knock on golf, right,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: That's why they needed to win and get that one
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: seat because they need to be indoors. They can't be
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: going to play at the forty nine ers at Philadelphia
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs, like they need that indoors. So I'm
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: still with Chad, Like, if you can get the three
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: and a half, there's a couple of books still holding
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: at the three and a half, I'd grab it. If
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: you're one of those people you just want to wait,
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: go for it. I wouldn't let the three scare me off.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: But why wouldn't you want to grab the hook now?
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna make it time it says, because
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: this is Chad's better, I'm not going to steal it.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: But if you want to make it your exec chat,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: I support it.
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: I like the Bears in the spot.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Fuck it, let's go Bears. Make it the exact decision.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: Are your waters, that's the executive decision.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: I'll take the Bears plus three. It's a good spot
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: for them. Look, they beat the Vikings, they were four
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: minutes away from beating the Lions. They had some typical
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Bears moments. I don't think the lines are the same
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: team they were three weeks ago. I don't think the
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Bears are the same team they were three weeks ago.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: This defense has only gotten better if there's gonna be
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: wind and rain in place of their place of their advantage.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Give me the Bears. By the way, let's take the
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: under forty and a half while we're at it, because
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: that line's going to move down to Yeah, Jacksonville at Cleveland. Look,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: this is this is one of the biggest most dramatic
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: changes on the board.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: The Jags before last night were three point favorites. Now
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: since the Trevor Lawrence injury, they're at minus two. Joe
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Flacco battered. Flacco is now on the practice squad. Kevin
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Stefanski said he has no idea who the QB will
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: be this is a pass. I don't even know why
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: we're talking about this game.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Damn jah No, this is not Last week was the
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: time of back Cleveland. This week was the time to
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: back Cleveland. I got lucky. We talked Sunday night, and
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: I took this just because it was plus three for Cleveland.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: I didn't know why it was so low, Like Chad
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: just said it. They didn't on Sunday. They don't know
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: who their QB was going to be. And the book
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: was still hanging up plus three on Cleveland before the
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: Jags even played so classic I'm an idiot and I
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: bet a dumb number and it worked out for me.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Was like, I was just like, this number doesn't makes sense.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: I gotta bet it, and Trevor Lawrence got hurt. Now
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: it's moved six points. If you took it, you're living
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: the dream. You can hit an easy middle here. I've
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: already seen a couple of books show three. I'm with you.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: It's like, I want to take Cleveland here, but not
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: a two and a half. I'd feel comfortable taking them,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: but a three three and a half that's really hard
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: for me to get there. But I love Cleveland's defense
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: at home. I keep talking about the difference of them
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: on the road. You can go look right now at
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: the splits what their defense is at home and what
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: they are on the road. It's totally different. They're just
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: so much better at home. Now we're getting them at
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: home against a backup quarterback for the Jaguars. I love it.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: And Jaguars on a short week traveling. Yeah, like two
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: and a half. If it stays there, I'm gonna make
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Chad Forces one. It's like it's it's gross, But I
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: don't care who the quarterback is for Cleveland. I would
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: take him in that spot. You're basically back in the
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: defense there in such a good spot. I can't avoid it. Well, look, I.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Wrote it down, so we'll revisit it on Thursday. What
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I wrote it, I.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: Got while you were like, I don't want to touch this, but.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: I wrote it down to two two and a half,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens with three.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: The next game, Indy at Cincy, playing off the Monday
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: night football game last night, All of a sudden, Browning,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: the quarterback for Cincinnati was pinpoint accurate, completing eighty six
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: percent of his passes. The line has moved one and
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: a half points in the Bengals direction. Off of the
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Monday night game. It was sincey plus two and a half.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I haven't had too much time at this point based
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: on last night game to dig in. It kind of
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: felt like I'm not going to bet on Cincy because
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm betting the the the bounce off the money
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: in that game and I'm not getting any value in
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: the number anymore.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't hate grabbing. I'm not gonna make a sense, says,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: but if you if you do, like since I would
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: grab it out because I could see this move to
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: them to be a favorite once more. People watch the
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: film on this kid and break it down, like he
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: was fearless in that game, Like he really was so confident,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: fearless in the pocket throwing the ball, and yeah, I
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: could not believe what I was watching. Like if you
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: watch this tape compared to Pittsburgh tape, it's totally night
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: and day. Like clearly he's comfortable whatever happened after getting
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: his first start, he's not scared and that's the key
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: to being being a quarterback, Like you can't play scared,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: and he did not play scared, So yeah, I'm with you,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: Like I didn't know really what to do with it
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: because I kind of wanted back the Colts here, but
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: just because of what you had to said, like that
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: was such a high emotional win. Then win as a
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: ten point underdog against the Jaguars. But I think there
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: even a unlucky in that game, right, They had the
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: miss field goal, They just had a couple of things
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: that weren't really breaking their way. So I'm not going
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: to overreact to it. Yeah, I like, honestly, I like
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: the Bangals here, like just matchup wise against the Colts.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the guy's luck rankings, but it
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: feels like the Colts have been crazy lucky on this
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: little wind streak throw on right now, right, They've had
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of things bounce their way if you look
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: it up all their matchups. So, uh yeah, I'm seeing
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: one book still Bangals plus one and a half, So
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: I'll grab that. I'll throw in a teaser, just like
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: last week, it was like a brutal loss we lost
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: on Tennessee at plus one and a half against the Colts,
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: and it's kind of same spot. But obviously all your
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: teasers came through, so those are such sickening ones where
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: it's like, man, we were on the right side, but
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: it just did not get there.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah. But look with the Colts speaking of lucky two
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: block punts and knock the punter out of the game,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: and so that had a huge impact on the outcome
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: of that game in which they were basically getting dominated.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: And I missed extra point.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think miss belong to the mixture. The
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: point is because the polder was the punter.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Oh that's right, yeah, the punter. Yeah. Crazy.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: So we got screwed six ways from Sunday on that one.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: This was the other game that was going to be
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: my executive decision, Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens. Ravens
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: are seven point favorites right now. You call this one
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: on Sunny and at the show you said this looks
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: like a funky line to me. The Ravens is favorites
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: at home, not especially great under Lamar or HARBAUGHV. I
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: don't see the stats in here for for either one
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: of those, but if you want to update it in
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: the chat, huge pros Joe's game. Right now, we're showing
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: tickets on Baltimore. Money on the Rams. Open it seven
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: and a half down to seven.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it just felt like too big of a number.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: I do hope it says seven after because I feel
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: a lot better taking on the contest. Obviously that would
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: the six and a half, or worst case, it gets
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: down a five and a half by the time we
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: do it. But yeah, it's kind of just a spot
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: playing this Rams team. It's like they're always gonna be
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: able to back door you like that, the way their
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: offense plays. Hal McVeigh coaches them. This is like the
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: same exact spot I think earlier in the season we
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: took the Rams was a seven and a half against
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers and we had a last second
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: field goal to cover that seven and a half. Like, yeah,
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: there's a couple of teams where I feel really comfortable
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: taking as big dogs, and McVeigh is one of them
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: where it's like he's he coaches his team never stop
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: and like they'll keep Matt staffor will keep pushing the
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: ball downfield. So it is a good matchup for the
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: running style that the Ravens do play against this Rams defense. Like,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: if you're going to attack the Rams defense, a couple
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: of things that this Ravens team does will they'll be
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: able to do against this Rams team. But this is
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: simply I just I think we'll always be alive because
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: the backdoor play on this one shot.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah Jackson Lamar Jackson twenty six and ten straight up
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: and fourteen and twenty two against the spread as a
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: favorite of two hundred and sixteen qbs. Over the last
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: twenty years, he has ranked two hundred and eighth against
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: the spread as a home favorite in all spots other
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: than as a favorite of three or less twenty one
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: and thirty. By the way, shout out to the Favorites
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: listener who came to the show wearing his Dak Prescott
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: jersey and on it in permanent ink. He had written
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: a stat about Dak Prescott against the spread given to
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: him by Evan Abrams. Pretty good, right, So yeah, we're
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: on the Rams here plus seven. Brandon Anderson in his
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: hot read on Sunday Night in the podcast that Evan
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Abrams and Joe Golant Do in a review of all
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: the games, previewing some early lines for the next week.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: His hot read was Carolina plus six and a half
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: at the time against New Orleans. Why Allen continues to
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: be one of the worst coaches forget about of any
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: kind of football. But as a football fan who is betting,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: you want to fade Dennis Allen. You want to fade
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Dennis Allen as a favorite. Five sixteen and one against
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the spread. As a favorite, the Saints offense is bottom
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: five at home. Their defense is thirtieth in DVA, their
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: last in pass rush win weight, their thirty first in
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: past block win rate. The line got down to five,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: it's been bet up to five and a half. I
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: think it's going to keep going up. I would wait,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: but I do think Carolina could end up being a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: strong player.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm right with him. I love Carolina, and I'm
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: with you. I was hoping I was gonna stay at six.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: It's like that's a great number to play against a
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: Saint's team that just struggles in a red zone. I
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: mean even last week they had some opportunities to win
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: that game and they just kept coming up short. I
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: think Derek Carr might have been being concussion protocol now
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: this week, which means we might get Jamis as a favorite,
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: which is even better. So yeah, I'm gonna grab the
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: five and a half. Hope the six gets back so
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: we can go heavier on this game. But yeah, nice
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: early bet by him. I was. I was so mad
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: at myself for not bringing up that game on Sunday
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: just because the line had moved so much. You know,
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time, we like backing these teams
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: after they fire their head coach. That was a good spot, right,
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: divisional game, ye catching more than whatever it was five
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: and a half went to three and a half by kickoff,
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: So the Pros roll over that one and what did
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: they get? Matt Mitchell two point conversion to get that
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: naked land on the three. But that's how it is
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: when you bet Carolina, right, it's gonna come down to
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: a stupid two point conversion. So five and a half matters.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: If it comes down to that, you can land on
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: five again, you might as well grab the five and
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: a half like I am right now, just in case
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: it does drop back down to five four and a half.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at Las Vegas. Las Vegas is a three point underdog.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: This line was Tuesday was with two on Sunday night,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: and we like the Raiders then, and now it's three
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: and I'm looking in the Action app and the money
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Las Vegas this early in the week.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: I have to think it's wise guy money, which is
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: why it's weird to me it moved up instead of
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: moving in the Raiders direction. What are you seeing? Am
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: I wrong in my assumption here? No?
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, I honest haven't been anything on it yet.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: I did want to be on the Raiders side. I
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: like them at home as a dog. But I can
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: see why they would come in on the Vikings, right.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: You're getting them after a bad loss and then what
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: they have the weekend off, right, so it's like you
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: expect them to come out of the game that they
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: know they need, like this is one of these If
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: they don't win this, it kind of feels like they
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: won't make the playoffs. Now, this Viking team, just because
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: Green Bay has come on so well here of late,
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: that feels like the team that's kind of kind of
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: pushed his Vikings team out, So I can kind of
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: see their angle of it. But yeah, like my model
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: on paper, it's like I want to be on the
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Vike the Raiders here, But I guess so I can
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: just wait now chat and see where this line ends up.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Like if this gets to three and a half for us, great,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the thing would definitely scare me off. The
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: fact that if I talked to a couple of guys
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: and they really like the Vikings here and their scheme
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: matches up well against the Raiders, you know they're gonna
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: be a blitz heavy defense against our first year starter.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Maybe that does favor with the Vikings in some way.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: But I really don't know why they're so heavy on
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: the Vikings right now, But I'm gonna try to find out.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: We'll find out. So we'll wait and put a pin
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: in this one. We'll see if we give some sharp
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: calls giving us an indication. I mean, the truth is,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: we got so many games that we like at this
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: point that we might not need the Raiders unless we
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: completely unless we completely fall in love with the Raiders.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Seattle at San Francisco minus ten and a half. We
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: were sitting in our studio on Monday. Yeah, we're scrolling
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: through the Action app and you said to me, wow,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Seattle has moved to thirteen to ten and a half.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: What does somebody know? What does somebody think?
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah? No, someone texted me and said have you seen
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: this line? And me and you were doing whatever you
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: were doing in studio. But I hadn't looked probably the
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: last hour, and I said to you, I said, this
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: line's moved whatever was two three points since we've sat
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: down here at this table. So clearly a really smart
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: group is coming heavy. I don't know if it was
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: in Jersey or in Vegas or where, but they moved
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: the numbers such every book followed, like really interesting when
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: every book moves from the twelve and a half thirteen
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: all the way down to ten and a half. So
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: somebody knows something, but I don't know. My gut instinct
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: here is to take the forty nine ers like they're
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: a juggernaut. I don't care if the Seahawks have had
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: extended rest here in that. You know, this is a
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: letdown spot for the forty nine ers after such a
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: huge emotional win against the Eagles, like they just they
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: got the guns. Like even when they're not playing their
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: best like Eagles game, they're being shut out. Once it
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: gets rolling, it's like a snowball of that team, Like
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: it's just the one to two punch of Ayuk and
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: Debo on the outside and the kid on the middle
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: with McCaffrey. It's just you can't stop it. So this
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: Seattle team is like tissue paper. I mean that Dallas
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: offense just cut through them so easily in that game,
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: a game which they should have won. It's not good.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: Like I don't have I don't have the stats from
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: my guy Evan, but I know that historically I've done
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: well back in Kyle. Feels like against the Seahawks team
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: so earlier this year, I think we took the forty
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: nine Ers is a big favorite against the Seahawks, and
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they blew them out right. I think
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: that was a Thursday game and like the Seahawks had
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: to pick six and Thanksgiving. It was Thanksgiving, dude.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: The Seahawks have played one game Thanksgiving when they got
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: blown out by the Niners. They played on they played
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys and they almost upset them, but they still lost.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: But this team, look, Gino was injured. I think Kenneth
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Walker was injured in that game. Certainly this team has
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: some issues, but I'm not sure that to me. The
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: ten and a half, it's almost like I'm gonna look
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: at some of the numbers here from from Evan, but we're.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: Talking about four straight against Seattle.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: He's won four straight against Seattle.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Coverage four straight.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Since twenty nineteen, the road dog in the division covers
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: it a fifty seven percent clip. By the way, this weekend.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: That includes Denver, which we haven't discussed, Philly, which we
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: haven't discussed, Seattle, which we have, Carolina which we have,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay which we have.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Fuck, I'm on a lot of favorites. I just realized
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: trying to adjust to the times. Man, I don't know
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: what to do.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: It's making out the last twenty years road dog in
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: the division ten or more fifty five percent against the spread.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I want to dig. Why would I not
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: want to take a ten and a half dog, Chad?
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: That's why I don't trust it. It's like, what the
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: fuck is this number? Why did they move it off
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: twelve and a half to ten and a half such
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: a key number? Yeah, weird. The ten and a half's
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: just been sitting there.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: It almost moved on air like they skipped. They skipped
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: four points, especially right they skipped they skipped the twelve,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: they skipped the eleven and a half, they skipped the eleven.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: They just went right to ten ten and a hours.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Luckily, I don't think we're gonna have to play this one.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: Well, you know why we're not gonna have to play
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: this one?
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: Why?
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Because we are fucking playing the Denver Broncos at the
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers is three point dogs. Roll it up,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: put it in, whatever you gotta do. You know we're
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: playing the Broncos here plus.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Do I don't do it? No, I don't. I don't
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: why because what is this number? Why is it not
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: a pick? Mike? I'm with you, my gut instinct. When
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: I saw the three, I smile. I'm like, nice, give
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: me Denver plus three better coach teams playing way better.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: Everything's so fucked up for the Charges right now? Like
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: who would have thought Mike Williams and Palmer were so
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: important to that offense? Like their number two and three
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: receiver apparently is what made the charges of Chargers. And
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Herbert's been bad, man, he has been so bad this season.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you, Chad my gut. I know I
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: have no money on this one. I could lose the
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: value because this could go to two and a half,
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: but I don't know what to do with it, Like
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: I want to take the three, but these damn favorites
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: have just been covering. When then when they shouldn't, So yeah,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: I want to be there with you. I just I
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: have nothing on this one. Do not understand this line
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: at off like have it as a pick. I'm clearly
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: missing something here on this Chargers team. But because again
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: they're not healthy like Bosa has been out too. It
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: does not make spense, especially Denver. This easyly would have
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: been a pick if they would have won last week
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: and they were there right like they were an interception
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: away in the end zone, like a fifty to fifty
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: ball between receiver and the dB. That would change everything, right,
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: So I'm with Chad, like, if you want to grab
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: the three people, that's what I'll probably end up on.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: But I don't know what to do with this number.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: The weirdest line of the week. The Chargers are horrible
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: and they why are they catching three against anyone? When
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: we talked about the stats, like, this team does not
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: cover this number. So yeah, this this might not be
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: in where a big ball is better or whatever, but
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: I don't trust this number right now.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: Look, it's the right spot, the right team in the division.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: So long term winner, that's what a long term.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Winner against against that by the way, A Brandon Staley
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: coach team that underperforms and he'll be fired after this year. Yeah,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: as a favorite, Like, it's the exact spot you want
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: to bet the Broncos. They just lost the Chargers one ugly.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's part of it for sure, is the
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: Chargers got right a little bit again New England in
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: a game that could have gone badly for them.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, six points, right, you know now there something's wrong
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: with the Chargers. Man. So yeah, like it's either Broncos
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: here for us or nothing.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Weird to me that you're so hesitant on this one.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: It's like there's there's like goblins.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: Been working, brother, We've been taking these ugly divisional dogs
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: and we begin burned. The public has been fucking feasting.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to protect us mainly.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm feeling the warm embrace of your protection
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: right now. Buffalo Kansas City, Kansas, Kansas City minus two
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: and a half. Another one we talked about on Sunday night.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Bill's at plus three. We both thought, wow, that's weird.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: The wise guys bet it at plus three. Now it's
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: down under three and into two and a half. Mahomes
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: as a favorite of less than a field goal, I
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: think the question before we can really commit, is there's
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: something wrong with the Chiefs? Right? They finally found some
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: sustains that can happened momentum against Green Bay, it seemed
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: like they might win that game, Like Mahomes throws that
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: bad pick, but they were driving before that and that
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: was going to be the difference in the game. But
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: we have to think, is Buffalo, which is now about
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: plus three to ninety to make the playoffs, desperate enough
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: after a bye week and that terrible loss to Philly
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: to make a game of it. Since twenty twenty, Mahomes
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: is seven to zero undefeated, coming off a loss where
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Casey scored less than three touchdowns. They are winning by
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: an average of nearly twelve points per game, fifteen to
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: five and one against the spread as a favorite under
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: three points or as an underdog.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: And people tell me how much you loved me. Last week,
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: I gave you what Simon says, bet was Washington. It
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: was a horrible experience. This week, I gave you a
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: little gift. Ken City Chiefs. Grab it now two and
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: a half. Simon says, when sim do it, we do
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: WHOA Yeah, gotta go with the easiest one, like this
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: is a no brainer. Me and Chad. As soon as
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: they got a two and a half, we both looked
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: each other like, all right, well that's what we're doing
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: this week. If it was three and a half, we
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: probably on the Bills. This number should be three. Feels
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: like this is them went in by a field goal game,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: just two teams dealing with a lot of shit this
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: year fighting it out like this is quickly became one
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: of the best rivalries in all football. Like the Josh
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: Allen Mahomes games are always amazing, always electric. Yeah, I
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: get the Bills will be incredibly desperate. Chad just gave
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: you the stats. We're getting Mahomes at home after a loss,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: and you know they have a lot of things to
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: work on, but it feels like it's all there. It's
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: just little things aren't hitting what it usually does right there,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: Like Chad says, these drops is what's killing them, Like
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: they kept even that last game they had some huge
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: drops on third down, Like that's what really killed them
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: in that game against Green Bay where Jordan Love's guys
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: were making the places for him and the Chiefs just weren't.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: So I understand why people are kind of off this
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: Chiefs team. But got to back the value here. Look
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: like this numbers moved too much at two and a half.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: We are getting value here now on this Chiefs team.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is an auto play when I saw
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: get to that number. Now, when you read those stats
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: from Evan, that makes me feel so much better, like
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: I didn't know he was that good after a loss,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: and the fact that it's under a field goal. We
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: just got to play the numbers here.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: And taken Simon, can you name the fastest growing ticketing
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: app in the United States?
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number two,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: pro and college games. Speaking of which, I'm going to
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: open game Time right now from our Action Network offices
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: here in New York City. Look at this, Simon, look
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: at this. We're going to talk about this game, the
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: New York Football Old Giants. You can get in to
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: see them Monday Night Football less than fifty bucks. I
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: don't know what that says about the product on the field,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: but you can get in to see the New York
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Football Giants less than fifty bucks. No matter where you live,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: download the Game Time app, get it out and have
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: some fun this week. Go sweat your bets live and
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  Speaker 1: in person. You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars
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  Speaker 1: off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the
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  Speaker 1: app and intercode favorites for twenty dollars off. Last minute
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  Speaker 1: tickets lowes price guaranteed. All right, we got Buffalo Kansas City.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: The other Marquee matchup, the Sunday night game Philadelphia at Dallas.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Dallas is three and a half. This one has been
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: on the move, opened at two and a half. Wise, guys,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: better immediately. You liked Dallas here, You like Dallas at
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: two and a half, You liked him at three. I
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: know you still like him at three and a half.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: Explain where you have this game power rated right now?
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I have had a minus four and Deptford Dallas,
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: and I've talked to a couple guys who like Eagles.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: I get where their side is and what they're coming from,
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: and they think it's a good spot to back Eagles.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: And they think that Dak and this Cowboys team will
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: have a letdown offensively against an Eagles team that you
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: know their defense just got embarrassed. Usually those teams kind
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: of bounce back. I just don't see it, like I'm
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: just not seeing it where the Eagles can get the
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: stops like this. This Dallas team is just well oiled
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: right now. And you know this the this the dak
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: to CD combo, like when he needs a third down
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: he goes to him. It's been working. So yeah, I'm
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: hoping we have five others so I don't have to
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: put this in my contest. So I don't really need
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: a root for it, but I bet it. Like here
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: we are on Tuesday again. I haven't really hit it
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: since it's been moved to the minus three and a half,
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: but at minus three minus two and a half, like,
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: I bet pretty heavy Sunday night into Monday morning on
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: Dallas and then you know me, Chad had a show
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: in the morning. I got back, drove down to Atlantic
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: City and by the time I got down there, they
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: were gone, like the three the threes were gone. It's
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: mainly three and a half's now. Today I wake up,
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing a couple of threes at a couple of
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: different books. So it's definitely back and forth between the
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: like different pro Like there's pros like me who have
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: this at four. There's a couple of pros who have
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: it a two and a half. So they're showing a
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: really good value right now on the Eagle, especially at
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: three and a half. So pretty interesting. But I do
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: think it all comes down to who's gonna have the
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: inside info on what that Hurts injury is and how
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: hurt he really is, Like, if Heurts is really banged up,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: man like this, this number might steam up if someone
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: gets good info on what's going on with Hurts. If not,
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: you know, if he's totally fine, Yeah, you're getting good
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: value on this Eagles team because you know this probably
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: should just be three. So the fact that it's three
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: and a half, that's what indicates me that something's more
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: is going on the Egles than we know, Chad, So
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna feed on along with everyone else. But I
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: would not take Dallas in minus three and a half.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: If you can find the three out there, I'd much
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: prefer that, just because we've seen when these two teams play,
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: it really does matter. The number does matter. It usually
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: does get close to three or four points whoever wins
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: this game.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: As also a game that comes Sunday could be moving
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: in the oppose direction, right like, there could be some
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: wise guy moves that if it gets to four, it
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: comes back down to three and a half. There's going
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: to be options for this game.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: It could. I think a lot of the betting right now, though,
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: is a Hurt speculation. That's why I bet so heavy
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: yesterday on Dallas to get it before it moved, because
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: I assume we'll get more info here on today and
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: Wednesday about what's going on with Hurts if he practices
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: or not, and that I think you'll see the line
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: move again if he doesn't practice tomorrow or Thursday, I
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: definitely think we'll see a lot more movement. But yeah,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: right now it's just speculation betting. I don't think anyone
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: really knows what's going on with Hurts.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Luckily, this week we have two Monday night football games
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: and they are they're going to be barn burners. Tennessee
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: is visiting Miami such an annoying line Because I mentioned
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: this on Sunday night when it was I think Miami
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: at twelve, I said we would like it. Miami at twelve.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Now all of a sudden, it moved to thirteen while
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: we were recording. Now it's at fourteen.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: YEP.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: I mean to be honest, I kind of still lean Miami.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: They do dominate at home against these bad teams. Think
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: about this, beat the Broncos by fifty, the Panthers by
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: twenty one, even though the way that we were down
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: fourteen in the first half. They beat the Giants by fifteen,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: They beat the pass by fourteen plus even the past
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: two weeks, they dominated bad teams on the road. They
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: beat the Commanders, they beat the Jets' I don't hate
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Miami is a huge favorite here.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think the pros are betting off the
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: Tennessee splits. That was the first lost Tennessee had at
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: home this year. Like that was a little thing I
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: loved about Tennessee why I wanted to take them as
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: a dog. Last week. It's like pretty sure they were
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: four and oh at home, and they just played really
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: well with very well at home. The biggest news that
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: I think moved this number is I'm almost positive I
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: saw Simmons is injured, which is you know, their best
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: d tackle. Yeah, yeah, it changes everything for Tennessee. Like
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: he is the engine that gets that team gone, Like
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: he's the run stopper, He's the guy that gets the
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: pressure up the middle. So the pocket, you know, the
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: QB has to move off their spot, which that's huge. Yeah,
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: so yeah, Tito's saying here that Simon is expected to
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: be out per varyable, So that's a that's a huge deal.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: Like the guy that was supposed to move tool off
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: his spot, that's that's huge. So I honestly wanted to
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: take Tennessee once his number moved to this point where
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: it was up to like fourteen at a couple of books,
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: It's like, you know, that's that's a huge number for
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: a Tennessee team that they don't quit, like they're gonna
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: stay in it regardless. But I think Chad's right where
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know where the pressure is gonna come from
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: for this Tennessee team to really mess with to us.
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: So we've seen it when two has a clean pocket
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: and time to throw like he did against Washington last week,
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: he's dominant, Like that's an incredible offense. So again, I
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: don't know if this will be one to me and
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: Chad's five because this number has moved way too much
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: at twelve and a half, I could have been talked
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: into it, but at fourteen and a half, which is
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: what I bet our contest line will be. Yeah, that
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: scares me too much.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Jeff uh By the way, I love you. Just put
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: this to the Chat. Since we started the show and
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: we talked about the Jets, the line has moved from
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: six and a half to five and a half. I'm
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: almost I'm almost glad because I hadn't betted at six
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: and a half, and now I won't feel compelled to
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: bet at at five and a half, so the option
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: has been taken away from me.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just thought it was funny just because man
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: mitchin or Chat is just cursing my name basically for
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: even talking about the Jets that length, and it just
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: cracks me up that it's like it's a pro game.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: I hate it too, brother, But there was really good
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: value at six and a half, and Chad, I just
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: said it. Now it's at five and a half, So
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: I'm looking right now, there's like three three books left
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: with a six out there. If you want to be
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: miserable and ride the train with me, you can still
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: get the six, but you've missed the six and a half.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: That's cute to come.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Back thanks to our amazing listeners who are so sharp
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: that they took the opportunity right off the board. For me,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: the good news is the good news is we still
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: have the opportunity to bet the other New York football team,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: the New York at plus six and a half. And
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, I don't hate it. Like fading
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: the Packers coming off that massive win, going on the
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: road against a defense that has been good enough in
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: a primetime game. It's kind of where you want to
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: play the Giants.
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: And before I forget because this is our last one,
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: I just want to give a little bit of loving
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: a shout out to our Action Network social team. They
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: had an amazing tweet about our potential quarterback matchups on
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: week fourteen. When I was talking about why the NFL
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: tries so hard to protect the quarterbacks, this is what
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: we might have this weekend people for quarterback matchups. So
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: Thursday night we get Chad's favorite game of the week,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Mitch Trubisky against Bailey Zappy. That is real. That's an
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: NFL game. Next up, we have CJ. Stroud versus Trevor Simeon.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: That's real. Next up is Bryce Young, Jameis Winston, and
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: we got Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ritter, and we got CJ Beth,
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Joe Flacco. You're saying they can't get worse. It came home.
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, it gets worse. We got min Gardner
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: Minshew against Jake Browning, and we've got Josh Dobbs, Aidan O'Connell,
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: and then we finish it up Monday night with Jordan
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Love and Tommy DeVito. This is why the NFL protects
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: the quarterbacks? Chat that list right there, That.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: Is an incredible tweet.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: Incredible.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad you read that with the context of
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: this is why the NFL protects the quarterbacks. Got this
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: is why the Packers Giants game is going for less
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: than fifty bucks on game time right now.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: That was another great story from the party. We met
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: some guys who were friends with Tommy DeVito, so he's
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: from their hometown. Did they show you the pictures of him? No,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: it was it was basically him out at the club
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: the night before in Hoboken with his little necklace on
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: that says TD, Oh my god, he doesn't drink. Apparently,
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: he's like a good Christian boy. And it's like, how
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: do I not love this guy in roof form. I
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: was already going to back the Giants in this spot
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: just because the Jordan love this is peak. I've been
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: waiting to sell on them. And last week me and
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Chad talked, but we had a good number. Luckily, the
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: model back that I had at a four and a half,
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: we were getting six and a half in the contest.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: I think me and Chad said, screw it, what tack.
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: The five and a half worked out anyway, right, I
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: think a close five and a half didn't even matter.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: It's gonna catch up to them at some point. And
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: you know the Giants for how lucky they've been on
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: these last couple of wins, and I know how bad
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: the video is. As a quarterback, we're kind of backing
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: this defense to kind of stop dishort and love tring
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: like I can't believe how good he's been, but also
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: how lucky he's been. Like even in that game against
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs, I think that for me and Chad's lives,
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: he on fourth and one threw off his back foot
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: just up into the air, right into a guy's bread
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: basket that got us the field goal to put him
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: up there. Yes, so as well as he's been playing.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: If you go back and watch the film, he's really
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: been missing some reads. But he's just been so incredibly accurate.
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: That's been working out for him. But once again, the
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: books are telling us the pros are going to be
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: on this team here, right, Like this is the way
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: they hung this number, this is everyone's gonna have this teased,
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: like everyone's gonna have this in their teasers. Same thing
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: with the Chiefs last week. The Chiefs. I talked to
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: a bookmaker. I said on the show, they were the
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: number one teas team, They're in everyone's teaser. They lost
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: out right, your teaser is dead. Same feeling here with
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: the Green Bay. Right, It's like you know that that
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: was such a high emotional win against Detroit, and now
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: you have another one against the Chiefs. Ones are going
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: to catch up to them, and I think it does here.
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: So once again, I don't know if it's gonna be
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: one of our five, because me and you'd have some
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: the other ones. But this is a game I have
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: bet right now, I do like the six and a half.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: I'd probably take it down to five and a half.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: But once it hits that number. I'd stop like that.
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: That feels right. The Giants are terrible offensively, they do
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: have some major weaknesses. But this is way too big
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: of my number for Jordan Love to be favored by.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Not for nothing. I got twelve games written down that
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: we might pull five from. Normally we're talking about six
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: or seven. Might have to narrow some of these down.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm taking the Jets off.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: And then, yeah, that number's gone.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: That number's gone. I mean, we still like Carolina, we
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: still like the Rams. Let's take Cleveland off.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: I gained to you, bears By. I think by the
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: time we do Thursday, I'd be shocked if there's still
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: three and a half s left.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. I mean it's still going to be
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: exact decision. Kansas City minus two and a half. Dallas
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: could be really interesting. We'll probably end up taking Miami
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: off because I don't think it'll I mean, maybe it'll
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: be a thirteen and a half. But even if it is,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure we're going to love that. It's too big.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: Denver plus three we're gonna love. I can't wait to
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: put that in all right. As reminder of the favorite
• 57:45
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• 58:33
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