Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / U.S. Seizing Venezuela's Crypto?!🚨Canary Capital CEO INTERVIEW🔥Steven McClurg

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U.S. Seizing Venezuela's Crypto?!🚨Canary Capital CEO INTERVIEW🔥Steven McClurg · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Let's dive into the markets today, and I've got a
0:02
Speaker 1: special guest. Before we get into that, I do want
0:04
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0:43
Speaker 1: Let's go over to our guest today, and before I
0:47
Speaker 1: do that, I want to hit a clip and then
0:50
Speaker 1: we'll bring on our guests. It's going to be Stephen
0:51
Speaker 1: from Canary Capital and we're going to talk about where
0:53
Speaker 1: the markets are going. But let me go into I
0:55
Speaker 1: know a lot of you have been watching the news
0:57
Speaker 1: over the weekend, So let's run that clip.
1:00
Speaker 2: Because of spiraling inflation of the Bolivar, a lot of
1:02
Speaker 2: people had turned to cryptocurrencies, mining ethereum and bitcoin in
1:07
Speaker 2: their homes in order to just have a stable source
1:09
Speaker 2: of cash. But the other side of this is the
1:13
Speaker 2: fact that there are multiple reports that the government itself
1:16
Speaker 2: has been looking to evade sanctions by doing sales of
1:19
Speaker 2: oil in tether, which they then move into bitcoin.
1:22
Speaker 3: And so much of this market moves on sentiment.
1:24
Speaker 2: So even the promise that perhaps the US government they
1:27
Speaker 2: came in might seize.
1:28
Speaker 3: These assets, hold on to it.
1:30
Speaker 2: That's a bull case for bitcoin if you have a
1:33
Speaker 2: stockpile such as that that isn't being liquidated.
1:36
Speaker 4: Right, very interesting stuff very quickly as we got to go.
1:39
Speaker 5: Is it a tailwind for just bitcoin or also a
1:41
Speaker 5: theoreum salon in some of these other coins?
1:43
Speaker 3: It's a rising tide lists all ships.
1:44
Speaker 2: In fact, XRP has had outsized performance, all right.
1:48
Speaker 1: So a couple of things there that will impact the market.
1:52
Speaker 1: And joining me now is Steve mcclark coming in as
1:55
Speaker 1: the CEO from Canary Capital bin on before.
1:58
Speaker 4: How are you Steven fantastic? How are you excellent, Happy
2:01
Speaker 4: New Year.
2:02
Speaker 1: So this is your first appearance on the network this year,
2:06
Speaker 1: so welcome in.
2:07
Speaker 4: What do you think this is.
2:08
Speaker 6: The first time I left the house in two weeks.
2:10
Speaker 6: I've been exhausted after such a year and I've just.
2:14
Speaker 4: You get a little bit of time off. I love it. Well,
2:16
Speaker 4: we're getting wet.
2:17
Speaker 1: We're back to work here, man, So we're going to
2:19
Speaker 1: talk and we're going to drill you with questions. And
2:22
Speaker 1: the first question I have you look at the things
2:25
Speaker 1: that have happened over the weekend. Obviously with Venezuela, this
2:28
Speaker 1: starts to put a lot of pressure both on energy
2:30
Speaker 1: markets you could say, precious metals and then also crypto.
2:35
Speaker 1: The markets seem to respond. I don't know if it
2:38
Speaker 1: was necessarily directly related to Venezuela, but when you look
2:42
Speaker 1: at some of the things that are happening, US oil
2:44
Speaker 1: stocks were up considerable across the board, and then of
2:49
Speaker 1: course you had these things which are everything from gold
2:52
Speaker 1: reserves to oil reserves, all of that is now in
2:56
Speaker 1: play within Venezuela, a country in our hemisphere. What do
2:59
Speaker 1: you think think is impactful on crypto in general from
3:04
Speaker 1: what's going on on a global perspective. Of how this
3:07
Speaker 1: plays into the markets.
3:10
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, it hit a little bit on commodities,
3:12
Speaker 6: oil and other commodities that come out of South America
3:17
Speaker 6: that has gone up in price. There's speculation that on
3:22
Speaker 6: the ability to produce as much oil as it has
3:25
Speaker 6: out of Venezuela, and Venezuela has the largest oil reserves
3:28
Speaker 6: in the world, so it's no accident that we invaded them.
3:33
Speaker 6: But getting into cryptocurrencies, that has also led into buying
3:40
Speaker 6: up of gold and cryptocurrencies, and I believe that's primarily
3:44
Speaker 6: due to mistrust of holding currencies from any country. And
3:51
Speaker 6: you know, when one country invades another country for whatever
3:55
Speaker 6: the reason is, it does create a bit of a bit.
3:58
Speaker 7: Of a panic. Sometimes sometimes everything just.
4:01
Speaker 6: Goes down in price, but in this particular instance, it
4:04
Speaker 6: has gone up in price.
4:05
Speaker 7: I do believe it's due to the anticipation of a week.
4:09
Speaker 4: Dollar, so weeker dollar.
4:12
Speaker 1: Obviously, this has been kind of our discussion for the
4:15
Speaker 1: last several years, is the debasement trade and looking at
4:19
Speaker 1: what we've seen in digital assets playing out. But you
4:21
Speaker 1: and I have gone back and forth on is this
4:25
Speaker 1: a bear market, is at the beginning of another bull run?
4:28
Speaker 4: Is for your cycle over.
4:30
Speaker 1: Your position was fairly strong last year, as you felt
4:32
Speaker 1: that we were heading into a deep bear market with
4:35
Speaker 1: what you're seeing right now, because it appears that we
4:39
Speaker 1: could have had tax loss harvesting taking place in December
4:44
Speaker 1: and then people just rebuying, or possibly what's happened just
4:48
Speaker 1: in the short few days with the Trump administration. Would
4:51
Speaker 1: you change your position right now for twenty twenty six.
4:54
Speaker 1: Would you be bearish or bullish right now?
4:57
Speaker 6: Well, it depends on the asset of If we're talking
5:00
Speaker 6: about bitcoin, we'll start there. I am bearish on bitcoin
5:04
Speaker 6: for this year. I do believe that October sixth was
5:07
Speaker 6: the absolute peak of this particular cycle for bitcoin, and
5:13
Speaker 6: we're now in the bare leg of the cycle. And
5:17
Speaker 6: you know, we discussed this before, several reasons why bitcoin
5:19
Speaker 6: has kind of you know, been pretty flat this year.
5:23
Speaker 6: But my expectation is, you know, bitcoin drop thirty percent
5:28
Speaker 6: from October sixth, and I expect another twenty to thirty
5:32
Speaker 6: percent down from here over the next six to nine
5:36
Speaker 6: months until we hit another trough and then we're you know,
5:40
Speaker 6: back into the next the next cycle, and back into
5:44
Speaker 6: a bull market. I don't expect to see a new
5:47
Speaker 6: all time high in Bitcoin in twenty twenty six. Now,
5:52
Speaker 6: most cryptocurrencies are going to follow Bitcoin, right, but I
5:56
Speaker 6: do believe there's a diversion's happening and the team of
6:00
Speaker 6: twenty twenty six it's going to be building, and it's
6:02
Speaker 6: going to be primarily tokenization of railroad assets, including stable
6:07
Speaker 6: coins and any protocol that is heavily involved in this,
6:13
Speaker 6: and that does include XRP, Ledger or anything that's building
6:17
Speaker 6: real world applications for this technology, which also include hedera.
6:22
Speaker 6: I believe that those two assets are going to diverge
6:26
Speaker 6: from Bitcoin in this cycle. Now, does that mean that
6:29
Speaker 6: they're going to go up triple, quadruple and twenty twenty six.
6:32
Speaker 7: Probably not.
6:33
Speaker 6: I'm expecting low double digit growth and price in twenty
6:38
Speaker 6: twenty six for the handful of crypto assets that fall
6:42
Speaker 6: outside of Bitcoin and all of its followers. But I
6:46
Speaker 6: do expect to see, you know, probably positive returns, if.
6:49
Speaker 7: Not flat, while Bitcoin's down thirty percent.
6:52
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the list of ETFs that you have
6:55
Speaker 1: over on Canary Capital, the XRP one we have right there,
6:58
Speaker 1: which has been just an appose stellar performer for you guys.
7:03
Speaker 1: Then you've got, of course the Marinade Salana etf h
7:06
Speaker 1: Bar you just mentioned was just went live, and then
7:08
Speaker 1: of course like Coin.
7:10
Speaker 4: And we'll talk about Sue in a minute.
7:12
Speaker 1: I know you guys are bringing one on for that,
7:14
Speaker 1: and I want to kind of get into that a
7:16
Speaker 1: little bit. You're claiming that right now the brethren of Bitcoin,
7:20
Speaker 1: which I would say would be most likely Eth and
7:25
Speaker 1: a lot of the all coins that nest up underneath Bitcoin.
7:29
Speaker 1: Typically when it goes up, those all coins go with it.
7:32
Speaker 1: We've witnessed that just over the last three days. Those
7:36
Speaker 1: are the ones you say are potentially in for lower
7:40
Speaker 1: performance versus these Is that what I'm hearing?
7:43
Speaker 6: Absolutely, I agree that Eth will probably follow Bitcoin down.
7:48
Speaker 6: A lot of the Bitcoin like tokens, which include privacy
7:51
Speaker 6: coins by the way, they'll either follow Bitcoin down or
7:55
Speaker 6: they'll diverge as privacy. I do think that you know,
7:59
Speaker 6: Minera z, cash light Coin, all of those all have
8:04
Speaker 6: either either the either full privacy, they have privacy components,
8:08
Speaker 6: so they could diverge. They should diverge, will they actually
8:12
Speaker 6: I don't know. I'm waiting to see, but.
8:15
Speaker 7: But but I am really focused on the.
8:17
Speaker 6: Theme of the year, and that is that is tokenization
8:19
Speaker 6: and anything that's building really new unique tokenization should fall
8:24
Speaker 6: into that category. And that does include ADERA, includes XRP Ledger,
8:28
Speaker 6: it includes soul Suite, say Injective. Those are all chains
8:35
Speaker 6: that we really like for that, so we'll see what
8:37
Speaker 6: happens there.
8:39
Speaker 1: Steven you has mentioned a lot of tokens. Are those
8:41
Speaker 1: all going to be ETFs in the Canary roster this year?
8:45
Speaker 7: We hope. So I mean that that is really and again,
8:50
Speaker 7: you know when we're.
8:50
Speaker 6: Talking about like what we're what we're focusing on, We're
8:53
Speaker 6: focusing on any blockchain or technology that is focused.
8:58
Speaker 7: On tokenization world ward aspecta and the.
9:01
Speaker 6: Ones that are doing it from a new perspective. I'm
9:04
Speaker 6: particularly interested. A lot of people already do it on ETH.
9:07
Speaker 6: But what's happening with ETH is companies like JP Morgan
9:11
Speaker 6: just simply take the code or soft fork it out
9:15
Speaker 6: and then build their own so they're not even utilized,
9:17
Speaker 6: they're just using the code. And I see a lot
9:20
Speaker 6: more of that. That is one of the downfalls of
9:23
Speaker 6: ETH for being around, so long as you can simply
9:25
Speaker 6: fork it and build your own either public or private network.
9:29
Speaker 1: What about Ondo, I mean, this is one that has
9:31
Speaker 1: been in the RBA space for a while and has
9:34
Speaker 1: somewhat led it.
9:35
Speaker 4: What's your position on that.
9:37
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I expect great things out of Ondo.
9:40
Speaker 6: It's not one that we've been particularly focused on recently,
9:44
Speaker 6: but it is one that I've been watching, and I
9:46
Speaker 6: do believe that they're going to be doing a lot
9:48
Speaker 6: in tokenization as well.
9:50
Speaker 1: All right, I've got a clip here because this gets
9:52
Speaker 1: us into the theme that you're talking about versus the
9:55
Speaker 1: theme that some other analysts are talking about. This is
9:58
Speaker 1: a clip of Tom Lee talking about bitcoin.
10:01
Speaker 4: Take a look, You're.
10:02
Speaker 1: Back on the horse of predicting bitcoin, even though it
10:05
Speaker 1: didn't work out last year.
10:07
Speaker 3: It did not you know, it's like, no, I would
10:09
Speaker 3: not say.
10:11
Speaker 1: That you're a terrible financial advisor based on trying to
10:15
Speaker 1: predict bitcoin.
10:16
Speaker 7: I don't know who could could do that. So I'm
10:18
Speaker 7: not going to hold your feet to the fire.
10:19
Speaker 4: But as I said, you're getting right back on the horse.
10:22
Speaker 4: Fifty two hundred and fifty thousand. Yeah, you can bleep
10:24
Speaker 4: me out too if I just say the number.
10:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, in twenty twenty six, if bitcoin gets to two
10:29
Speaker 5: hundred or two hundred and fifty thousand, it would be
10:32
Speaker 5: breaking the four Yer cycle. So that's sort of part
10:36
Speaker 5: of our view is that this you know, if you
10:39
Speaker 5: file the fouryer cycle, bitcoin should be down this year.
10:42
Speaker 5: But I think that there are tailwinds that are building.
10:44
Speaker 5: And part of it is we kind of reset leverage
10:47
Speaker 5: on October tenth with that big shock, right, and now
10:51
Speaker 5: I think there is still institutional adoption taking place, and
10:54
Speaker 5: Wall Street is still building a lot of products on
10:58
Speaker 5: the blockchain, and then we have US government support. So
11:02
Speaker 5: I think these are tailwinds that help bitcoin recover this year.
11:06
Speaker 4: All right, So just.
11:07
Speaker 1: To set the table here, just everybody knows we're not
11:10
Speaker 1: picking on Tom. This guy has been right for a
11:13
Speaker 1: lot of times about bitcoin. He just happened to be
11:16
Speaker 1: wrong last year of it hitting an all time high
11:19
Speaker 1: and I think it was up to two hundred k.
11:21
Speaker 1: Now he's doubling down like a good analyst always does,
11:23
Speaker 1: including yourself, Steven, But how are we so far apart
11:28
Speaker 1: between you and Tom Lee? He's going all in. You're
11:32
Speaker 1: telling me bitcoin is the last thing I should buy.
11:36
Speaker 6: Well, look, I'm going to say that I was wrong
11:37
Speaker 6: as well. For twenty twenty five. My prediction was one
11:40
Speaker 6: hundred and forty thousand. We didn't quite get there.
11:43
Speaker 4: You were much closer. Come on, come on, you give
11:46
Speaker 4: yourself a little wrong is wrong? Right?
11:48
Speaker 6: I mean this isn't hand gar dates, but it is,
11:50
Speaker 6: you know, it is somewhat and I and I did
11:54
Speaker 6: say that I expected a top to be in October,
11:56
Speaker 6: so you know, I think I think the Binance situation
12:01
Speaker 6: sort of ended the rally a little, a little prematurely
12:04
Speaker 6: on October tenth. We could we have gotten one forty maybe,
12:09
Speaker 6: but who knows. Regardless of my prediction was wrong. But
12:14
Speaker 6: what I'm going to say is that there's not a
12:16
Speaker 6: whole lot of liquidity in the markets right now.
12:19
Speaker 7: And that goes across.
12:21
Speaker 6: The board, whether it's crypto, whether it's equities, even the
12:24
Speaker 6: bond market, there's a lack of liquidity.
12:27
Speaker 7: It's the reason.
12:28
Speaker 6: Why the FED said that they were going to end
12:32
Speaker 6: quantitative tightening or unwinding the balance sheet on December first,
12:36
Speaker 6: because they lacked liquidity. The banks lacked liquidity, and they
12:40
Speaker 6: needed enough liquidity to be able to service the repo market.
12:44
Speaker 6: So even even the banks don't have liquidity. But retail
12:48
Speaker 6: is the primary driver here of a lot of prices
12:52
Speaker 6: in crypto.
12:53
Speaker 7: So without liquidity.
12:55
Speaker 6: In retail, investors, I just don't see how you're going
12:58
Speaker 6: to do it, and there's not enough institutional money coming
13:02
Speaker 6: in as fast and as swiftly as everybody thinks it
13:06
Speaker 6: is to actually offset that. I mean, it is coming in,
13:10
Speaker 6: but it's a very slow process. And I don't believe
13:16
Speaker 6: that they're one hundred percent focused on bitcoin anymore. They're
13:18
Speaker 6: focused on you know, areas where there are real world
13:24
Speaker 6: applications that are being built, particularly you know, asset tokenization,
13:28
Speaker 6: and that's just where everybody's focus is right now. That's
13:31
Speaker 6: just the reality of it. They're not they're not speculating
13:33
Speaker 6: on bitcoin anymore. And by the way, the speculators, which
13:36
Speaker 6: is mostly the retail market where there is liquidity, it's
13:39
Speaker 6: moved to prediction markets. It's like, you know, people aren't
13:42
Speaker 6: betting on mean coins anymore. When there's a real edge
13:47
Speaker 6: on betting in prediction markets, or at least people have
13:50
Speaker 6: a perceived edge that they can predict things accurately. And
13:53
Speaker 6: even over the weekend, you know, there's there was a
13:55
Speaker 6: couple of guys that made you know, a ton of
13:57
Speaker 6: money betting on whether or not we would arrest of
14:01
Speaker 6: Venezuelan president. Right, Yeah, So the prediction markets are insane
14:06
Speaker 6: right now, and that's where retail liquidity has moved.
14:09
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the overall market right now, fear and
14:12
Speaker 1: greed is up to neutral. We haven't seen the neutral
14:15
Speaker 1: position in a while, so that in itself pretty intense.
14:19
Speaker 1: And then of course what we're seeing on overall market
14:22
Speaker 1: cap holding at three point two looks like a three
14:25
Speaker 1: point two trillion. This would counterbalance your position on this
14:31
Speaker 1: outside of maybe something like XRP, salonas up, you know,
14:35
Speaker 1: pretty much everything up, XRP being the outlier here at
14:39
Speaker 1: almost ten percent. But how would you argue that of
14:43
Speaker 1: the fact that we have seen a consistent growth really
14:46
Speaker 1: since the eighteenth of December, where we were at two
14:49
Speaker 1: point eight trillion. Now market cap is sitting at three
14:53
Speaker 1: point two trillion. In crypto, that's a pretty it's a
14:57
Speaker 1: pretty dynamic run. How would you argue that?
15:01
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, to my point, you know, XRP
15:03
Speaker 6: up almost ten percent right now. It is one of
15:06
Speaker 6: the divergent assets, and I do believe that, you know,
15:09
Speaker 6: XRP and others similar to that are going to continue
15:12
Speaker 6: to be divergent. But even this this short term rally,
15:17
Speaker 6: I do believe it's only a short term rally and
15:20
Speaker 6: it's not going to persist through twenty twenty six. I
15:22
Speaker 6: do agree with you a statement that you said earlier
15:25
Speaker 6: where there was a lot of uh, you know, tax
15:27
Speaker 6: loss selling at the end of the year. I mean
15:30
Speaker 6: I did it myself, right, It's like, Okay, you have
15:32
Speaker 6: an opportunity to take some tax losses, let's do it.
15:34
Speaker 6: And a lot of people in the market did do that,
15:38
Speaker 6: which kind of was a drag through the month of December.
15:41
Speaker 6: And now the markets have opened up again, you don't
15:44
Speaker 6: have the tax loss selling pressure anymore. You know, people
15:47
Speaker 6: are still going to speculate, people are still going to buy,
15:50
Speaker 6: but you know, you know, three percent isn't a lot
15:54
Speaker 6: considering how much Bitcoin has come down. You know, I
15:57
Speaker 6: do believe that bitcoin ether, maybe even Solana will continue
16:02
Speaker 6: to drag down throughout twenty twenty six as a month
16:06
Speaker 6: of January goes away.
16:08
Speaker 1: Okay, well, I mean this is interesting to I'm glad
16:13
Speaker 1: that we always get you on because you always bring
16:15
Speaker 1: kind of a little bit of reality check to me,
16:18
Speaker 1: even though I'm usually much more bullish in the markets
16:21
Speaker 1: than I just try to stay always bullish. But one
16:25
Speaker 1: thing I'm watching right now are the digital asset treasuries,
16:28
Speaker 1: and I continue to track what Bitmine is doing. They
16:31
Speaker 1: provided and of course we have their shareholder meeting coming
16:34
Speaker 1: up here pretty soon, and they keep talking about the
16:38
Speaker 1: potential of what I think could be happening, and that
16:42
Speaker 1: is this right here, is that we think there's a
16:45
Speaker 1: merger brewing. And of course Tom Lee's stock is up
16:49
Speaker 1: fourteen percent now as we've seen him ask these shareholders
16:54
Speaker 1: to approve this dramatic share increase. Do you think that
16:57
Speaker 1: if Tom Lee were to go out and acquire another
17:01
Speaker 1: one or two digital asset treasury companies, do you feel
17:06
Speaker 1: like that would be positive for Ethereum in general.
17:10
Speaker 6: Look, I think this is positive for not just Ethereum,
17:13
Speaker 6: but for dats across the board, for all crypto assets
17:18
Speaker 6: across the board. I do believe that consolidation needs to happen.
17:23
Speaker 6: A lot of these dats that came out, they had
17:26
Speaker 6: operating companies that were losing money, had massive debt, they
17:29
Speaker 6: were poorly ran, and they looked at the crypto bros
17:32
Speaker 6: As a lifeline to keep their publicly traded businesses, you know,
17:37
Speaker 6: alive and well so they don't have to face bankruptcy.
17:40
Speaker 7: And they're like, yeah, sure, we'll do anything you want.
17:43
Speaker 6: You want us to add, you know, random crypto asset
17:46
Speaker 6: to the treasury, we'll do it now. Granted, you know,
17:48
Speaker 6: I think there's a lot of legitimate ones out there
17:50
Speaker 6: as well, but most of them were you know, busted
17:54
Speaker 6: public companies that needed a lifeline, right and the best
17:58
Speaker 6: thing for the market right now is number one consolidation.
18:03
Speaker 6: Put some of these together, get rid of bad operating
18:05
Speaker 6: businesses that are that are legacy, that shouldn't be there anymore,
18:08
Speaker 6: and focus around one good operating business, kind of like
18:12
Speaker 6: micro strategy. Micro Strategy has a profitable operating business that
18:16
Speaker 6: pays all the other bills, and that way bitcoin can
18:19
Speaker 6: do what bitcoin does.
18:21
Speaker 7: And I think these other dats are going to need
18:22
Speaker 7: that as well. So I hope.
18:25
Speaker 6: That that bitmine acquires other eth dats, and I hope
18:30
Speaker 6: that there's other consolidation across other assets as well.
18:34
Speaker 4: So do you think he will?
18:35
Speaker 1: I mean, based on what you're seeing in the market
18:38
Speaker 1: right now, do you think that's a possibility that could happen?
18:41
Speaker 7: I do? I mean not that I have, I mean
18:43
Speaker 7: I have no information you know what whatsoever?
18:47
Speaker 1: Other yes, speculation, wouldn't it sound like a good business.
18:53
Speaker 4: Yeah, Okay, it's a smart move.
18:54
Speaker 7: It's smart move for him, and it's good for the industry.
18:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's especially good for some of these dats that are,
19:00
Speaker 6: you know, failing. Yeah, but I think that consolidation will
19:04
Speaker 6: really help also the price of ethereum, the price of
19:06
Speaker 6: other assets. You know, right now, there's too many dats,
19:10
Speaker 6: and it's they look like closed in funds, right, you know,
19:14
Speaker 6: old closed in funds. When there's less demand than they
19:17
Speaker 6: traded a discount. When there's more demand, they traded a premium.
19:20
Speaker 6: And the fact that most of these dats are trading
19:22
Speaker 6: at fifty percent discounts shows that there's a very little
19:25
Speaker 6: demand for them. And if there is some consolidation and
19:28
Speaker 6: some understanding of okay, this is the ethereum dat, this
19:31
Speaker 6: is the bitcoin data, then I do believe that the
19:35
Speaker 6: world will be a better place and crypto prices will
19:37
Speaker 6: be a little bit more stable.
19:39
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the new FED chair likelihood to occur.
19:44
Speaker 1: It's going to be the most consequential events of twenty
19:47
Speaker 1: twenty six. I still agree with that to a certain extent. However,
19:51
Speaker 1: the question is do you think Hassett is going to
19:54
Speaker 1: He's in the lead right now? Do you think he
19:56
Speaker 1: will continue to hold that position as possibly an assignment
20:02
Speaker 1: could be announced any time now by the administration.
20:05
Speaker 4: What's your position, Yeah.
20:07
Speaker 6: He's probably my personal leading candidate of who I think
20:10
Speaker 6: is going to get appointed. You know, who knows what
20:13
Speaker 6: will happen. You know, I'm not behind the scenes there,
20:17
Speaker 6: so I don't know, but Hassett is. You know, if
20:20
Speaker 6: I were to bet on it, that's who I would
20:21
Speaker 6: bet on. And then the appointment of a new FED
20:25
Speaker 6: chair is also extremely important for crypto prices too, So
20:29
Speaker 6: a lot of people believe that crypto prices will just
20:31
Speaker 6: instantly start ripping and hit all new time highs when
20:34
Speaker 6: when he's appointed or when he's named. I believe it's
20:37
Speaker 6: going to take some time because right now, if you
20:39
Speaker 6: look at rates across the board and you look at
20:42
Speaker 6: the shape of the curve, the curve is flat, but
20:47
Speaker 6: short term rates are still higher than you know, you know,
20:51
Speaker 6: six month, one year, two year, even five year. So
20:54
Speaker 6: the FED is probably behind at least one twenty five
20:58
Speaker 6: basis point cut to create a at least a normalized
21:02
Speaker 6: market where we don't have kind of inversion, and that
21:05
Speaker 6: needs to happen and then beyond that, it's going to
21:09
Speaker 6: take some time for the FED to both cut rates well,
21:12
Speaker 6: first of all, for him to be nominated and then confirmed,
21:17
Speaker 6: and then for the Fed to actually start cutting rates
21:20
Speaker 6: and for that to take effect into him to global
21:23
Speaker 6: monetary supply in order to cause prices to go up.
21:26
Speaker 6: So my estimate of when the next trough is is
21:30
Speaker 6: going to probably be this summer into the summer, and
21:32
Speaker 6: then U the bear market begins again, likely in the fall,
21:37
Speaker 6: sometime in Q three Q four.
21:39
Speaker 1: What do you make of these, uh, you know, these
21:42
Speaker 1: capital injections into the balance sheet right now that have
21:45
Speaker 1: been slowly coming in from the Fed.
21:47
Speaker 4: Over the last two weeks. Do you do you see
21:49
Speaker 4: that as any indicator on Q.
21:52
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean really really, what that is right now
21:54
Speaker 6: is helping the banks for the most part and helping
21:57
Speaker 6: helping treasuries. You know, all they're doing is keeping the
22:01
Speaker 6: ballot sheet stable, so as credits rolling off, they're just
22:05
Speaker 6: buying it back and buying it in the areas that
22:08
Speaker 6: they believe need the most help, which right now is
22:10
Speaker 6: the short end of the curve. We're really you know,
22:13
Speaker 6: a twenty five basis point could have helped as well,
22:16
Speaker 6: but buying assets on the short end is actually helping,
22:20
Speaker 6: you know, with banks with their their repo demand right
22:23
Speaker 6: now and their repeat demand is extremely high.
22:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So you're saying slow potential on cuts
22:30
Speaker 1: for the spring. Do you think we will get a
22:33
Speaker 1: cut before May?
22:36
Speaker 7: I do.
22:37
Speaker 6: I do believe the next FED meeting will produce one
22:40
Speaker 6: more twenty five basis point cut. And again it's just
22:43
Speaker 6: to save the banks, you know. I think if there's
22:47
Speaker 6: not a twenty five basis point cut, and if they
22:49
Speaker 6: had not stopped, you know, bleeding off the ballot sheet,
22:53
Speaker 6: then we probably would have seen a.
22:54
Speaker 7: Bank failure at the end of the year or even
22:57
Speaker 7: coming soon.
22:58
Speaker 6: But again, I want to point out that a lot
23:01
Speaker 6: of people think that, well, look, this is all easing
23:05
Speaker 6: and it's going to cause asset prices to rise.
23:08
Speaker 7: This isn't enough to cause asset prices to rise.
23:10
Speaker 6: This is a band aid to basically stop some bleeding
23:13
Speaker 6: at the banks. It's not enough to really do any
23:17
Speaker 6: more positive damage than that.
23:19
Speaker 1: Okay, well, listen, you got some good news here that
23:22
Speaker 1: I have to talk about, and that is suis is
23:26
Speaker 1: that what we're calling it?
23:26
Speaker 4: Or is it sweets?
23:28
Speaker 7: Well, technically it's sweet. Is how you say it. But yes,
23:33
Speaker 7: that is, that is.
23:34
Speaker 4: The yes is coming soon.
23:36
Speaker 1: You know, we've had Sweet team on before and we've
23:39
Speaker 1: kind of gone back and forth with Evan and Adanie
23:42
Speaker 1: on the pronunciation of it. But the good thing Well,
23:45
Speaker 1: I mean, you could have selected a lot of different
23:47
Speaker 1: assets here.
23:48
Speaker 4: Why go the Sweet route?
23:51
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, we're a really big fan of
23:54
Speaker 6: the Mist and Labs team. A lot of them came
23:57
Speaker 6: from Facebook. They had worked on if you remember old Facebook, Yeah,
24:01
Speaker 6: Libra tokenization project at stable cooint and I just you know,
24:07
Speaker 6: they're they're a very high caliber team. It is a
24:10
Speaker 6: top twenty token So those are some of the things
24:13
Speaker 6: that we were looking at when we were selecting our
24:15
Speaker 6: products suite. But I do believe that, given given their
24:19
Speaker 6: experience and given what they're what they have done, and
24:21
Speaker 6: what they are doing right now, that they're going to
24:23
Speaker 6: be one of the leaders in tokenization.
24:25
Speaker 7: So we're you.
24:27
Speaker 6: Know, betting really big on what Misston Laps is doing
24:30
Speaker 6: and what they're doing.
24:32
Speaker 1: Well, listen, guys, we are going to be watching the
24:34
Speaker 1: markets very closely, so Steve and I'm going to get
24:37
Speaker 1: you back on as we start to tread through this
24:40
Speaker 1: current pump that the markets are in right now and
24:43
Speaker 1: see if you.
24:44
Speaker 4: Are right or wrong.
24:45
Speaker 1: A check back, probably in the first quarter, would be due.
24:48
Speaker 1: I think with you, so we'll definitely get you back.
24:50
Speaker 1: Thanks for coming in today. I appreciate it absolutely. Thanks
24:53
Speaker 1: for having me, Paul. If you like this video, like
25:02
Speaker 1: and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join
25:06
Speaker 1: our free private member group the links in the description