Latest / The SPY Trader / Navigating the FiveWeek Market Slide

Transcript

Navigating the FiveWeek Market Slide · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , everyone !
• 0:02
  Welcome back to Spy Trader .
• 0:04
  It's 6 am on Saturday , March 28th , 2026 , here in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:10
  I am your host , Barnaby BullMarket , and I am so glad you could join me today for our early morning checkin .
• 0:17
  Grab your favorite mug of coffee and settle in , because we have quite a bit to digest from this past week on Wall Street .
• 0:25
  It hasn't been the easiest stretch for our portfolios , but that is exactly why we are here together to make sense of the noise .
• 0:32
  The big headline this morning is that we have just wrapped up a fifth consecutive losing week for the U.S.
• 0:38
  stock market .
• 0:40
  This is the longest slide we have seen since 2022 , and it has put investors in a serious riskoff mood .
• 0:48
  To give you the numbers , the S&P 500 , which we track through the SPY ETF , closed Friday at 6,368.85 .
• 0:58
  That is down 1.7 percent for the day and roughly 9 percent below that alltime high we saw back in January .
• 1:06
  The techheavy Nasdaq100 , or the QQQ , is officially in correction territory now , having fallen over 10 percent from its peak last October .
• 1:17
  Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a nearly 800point tumble on Friday , landing at 45,166.64 .
• 1:27
  So , what is causing all this pressure ?
• 1:30
  It is really a combination of a few big things .
• 1:33
  First , we are looking at a very tense geopolitical situation involving the U.S.
• 1:39
  , Israel , and Iran .
• 1:41
  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through the energy market , with WTI Crude surging past 100 dollars per barrel .
• 1:51
  Even though there is a negotiation deadline set for April 6th , the market is feeling very skeptical .
• 1:58
  On top of that , the Federal Reserve is keeping a very firm hand on the wheel .
• 2:04
  They held interest rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent recently , but they surprised everyone by suggesting we might only see one single rate cut for the rest of the year .
• 2:15
  With inflation sitting at 3.06 percent , which is still above their 2 percent target , they are staying hawkish .
• 2:23
  This has pushed the 10year Treasury yield up to 4.44 percent , and that is really hurting the highgrowth tech stocks we usually love .
• 2:32
  Looking at the winners and losers , it has been a tough month for the Technology Select Sector , the XLK , and Consumer Discretionary stocks in the XLY , which dropped 12 percent in March .
• 2:44
  Folks are worried about nonessential spending with gas prices being so high .
• 2:49
  On the flip side , the Energy sector , or XLE , is up 18 percent this month .
• 2:55
  We are seeing companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron benefiting from those high oil prices .
• 3:01
  Defense stocks like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are also up about 20 percent this month due to emergency spending .
• 3:09
  And of course , Gold has been a huge safe haven , with the GLD ETF reaching an alltime high of 4,535 dollars an ounce on Friday .
• 3:21
  Some individual company news to keep an eye on : Nvidia reported massive revenue of over 68 billion dollars recently , but the stock still fell to 167.52 on Friday because people are worried about AI fatigue and export licenses .
• 3:39
  Tesla is also having a rough time , down 19 percent this year and trading near 361 dollars as competition from BYD heats up .
• 3:49
  Even Apple and Micron are feeling the squeeze from supply chain worries and cycle peaks .
• 3:55
  So , what do we do with all this information ?
• 3:57
  My reasoning right now is that we are in a costpush inflationary environment .
• 4:02
  In times like these , the logic says to favor hard assets and defensive income over pure growth .
• 4:08
  For specific recommendations , I suggest looking at hedging with commodities .
• 4:13
  The SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , remains a strong play as long as global tensions stay high .
• 4:21
  You might also want to rotate into defensive equity .
• 4:24
  Think about the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF , ticker VYM , or the iShares Minimum Volatility ETF , USMV .
• 4:33
  These hold stable companies like Walmart and Costco that are currently doing better than the rest of the market .
• 4:39
  I also recommend maintaining a position in the Energy sector through the XLE to capitalize on that oil supply shock .
• 4:47
  One thing to be careful with is the longterm bond market .
• 4:51
  Even though the TLT is usually a safe haven , it is actually falling right now because rising inflation is pushing yields higher .
• 5:00
  It is probably safer to stick to shortterm bonds or cash for now .
• 5:04
  Finally , if you have a longterm heart and a threeyear horizon , this pullback in giants like Nvidia and Microsoft could be an entry point , but let’s wait for the market volatility to calm down a bit before jumping in with new money .
• 5:18
  That is all for this morning’s update !
• 5:21
  I am Barnaby BullMarket , and this has been Spy Trader .
• 5:25
  Stay safe out there and keep a level head .