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Indycar Sonsio GP IMS 2026 | Push to Cash Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: All right, welcome back. Apex Insider push to cash, betting preview. We are talking about the Sansio Grand Prix, IMS. We are weeks away from the Indy 500, but we got the Indy Road course. I got Nate Rogers, I got Mike with Indy Bet, and we're gonna go through our weekend talks, our bets, our previews, and everything grid rival as well. So welcome guys, how are we feeling? @iN8Rodgers: I think I'm ⁓ I just got back in town. So I think I'm officially the last person in Indy to put their Checkered flag out for May But I got it up and so that you know kicks off May here Indy_Bet: Good. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, and Mike, I know you're prepared for May too. This is like holy month, I guess, for Indie right now. This is it. Indy_Bet: That's right. Yeah, the precursor usually try to use this race to build a little bankroll to throw it all down on Christmas time, which is 500 week and all the props we get. And I think I might, I'll be honest, I'm a little more excited about the props that come, the props that are out there that are already dropped by Caesar's for the 500. I've been spending more of my time on that. I'll save you guys. The Indy car is unbeddable rent. Maybe I'll give you a short version when we get to the minus 200 pillow odds. But yeah, so excited to do a, get a little bit of racing this week and then boom we get the biggest one of them all. @f1capper: Yeah, you did kind of tee something up and we were just chatting about that, which is we did have a recording, a legend recording with Tony that went south. I had some technical difficulties and unfortunately we're not able to do it. We did have some, some of those Caesars props that we were talking about, which after, after the fact, I did bet a couple of them actually on Caesars. So I'm hoping we can get that recording. next week. ⁓ It's unfortunate. It was a good one, but it's okay. We'll have him back on the on a real recording where we're actually recording it. But this is IMS. Sometimes it confuses me because I remember Sancio Grand Prix being for another track. I can't remember which one. Maybe Road America. I don't remember. It was a Road America. Okay, so it's a little confusing at times, but @iN8Rodgers: think so, yeah. @f1capper: ⁓ I know you have been traveling, but you have a race preview. So I would love us to dive into that right away. What do you, what do we have? @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, this is the IMS GP where I make the joke every year that they go the wrong way at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for a week. It's a 2.44 mile track with 14 turns. This was the 18th race that they've done this and it's kind of in a short time period because when you think about the COVID years and many other years where they had double headers or even I think in COVID they had like four or five races here. So, ⁓ That's what I think it makes it so unique is that between like testing and so many years of these multiple races and ⁓ you know, Indy lights racing here a lot. And then you include the fact that this track naturally suits the European guys and their driving styles for when they come over, even if they didn't come up in the Indy car ladder, that they're comfortable there, that this the margins of this race are so slim. ⁓ You see teams kind of ebb and flow of who's really good. ⁓ And you see just so many different contenders. We see so many like mid pack teams like Ray Hall really have a ⁓ good hold of what they need for their speed. We had Renas VK win a few years ago with Ed Carpenter. You had like someone like Grosjean. He probably should have won here when he was with Coin. And so that's just what when I think about this track, that's what I immediately think about is just how you have so many kind of potential contenders. And that's what makes it make it a little fun. I don't think it ultimately leads to the best racing but there are a couple spots where you have nice opportunities for passing you know especially if you're on the Maybe the faster alternate or just a fresher tire or something like that. is there's room to make moves. Just again to some some stats. ⁓ I think with this race that one or less caution in like seven out of the last 10 years and one of those was the crazy rain race or had eight cautions. So it's pretty caution free race. The pit windows are pretty wide. ⁓ the preferred tire and the number of stops kind of changes year to year based on weather or just what the tire is doing. You had Team Penske win 8 out of the first 11 years here. Willpower collecting 5 of those wins. But recently Honda has won the last 6th and obviously Palo has won the last 3 here which is big part of that. Moving on to the pole sitter, they've won 41 % so 7 out of 17 and that's including the last 2 where Palo has gotten pole and won the race. We've seen people win from seventh or eighth several times. ⁓ some strategy calls or that rain race again we had some wins from 14th and 15th drivers in the fast six will make about 75 % our podium finishes over the last 10 years and only three drivers have managed to find the podium starting 11th or worse in those 10 years and then kind of the same thing with the top five you got about 70 % of your top five finishers are gonna start in that fast six and only 12 % of them have made that top five after starting 11th or worse so I think there is room to make moves but qualifying is still very important. @f1capper: Yeah, I didn't realize was, what'd you say? 41 % from, from poll. Yeah. Yeah. Um, that's yeah, that's pretty, pretty insane. And I think I saw a stat where it's like winners out of the winners, just total winners, think typically will come from the top four. Like I don't know the percentage right off the top of my head, but if you qualify in that top three, let's just say that ⁓ There is a chance you could win except pillow factor so @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, so I mean a lot of that was coming from Palo now and then like Will Power was straight dominating this race for a while. So he was getting pole here and the win and I think that's where majority of that comes from. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, no, it's, his odds are minus 200. We're now into that like max for Stappen 2023, 24 territory where it's like, it's unbettable. Just you can't do it. You have to, have to wait. But there is, there are some other interesting plays. I know that, I mean, there's a bunch of outrights out right now on. I don't know if MGM has it, but Caesars, got BetUS, you have Bet365, there's some race matchups, it's spanning across. let's talk about the outrights, speaking of. don't know, Mike, I don't know if you have any, because I know we kind of share that same sentiment about outrights, especially with Palo on the grid, Indy_Bet: Yeah, so the way I've, guess we're starting to attack some of these pillow dominant tracks, which there's a few now that we've pretty much identified this being definitely one of them with him winning the last couple of times at this track. I was, before it odds even came out, I always try to kind of make the odds myself beforehand with some of my models and some of my past history. And, and I was like, okay, I was thinking even money ish. Minus 110 and then I was thinking okay Do I bet that do I just put all the cards in and say all right? I'm gonna bet you know a full four three four units just on his outright and nothing else right because when you're what? And I was doing that in my head of that exercise at like and even money and then you see him come out at minus 200 and I was just like oh shit like I can't I can't do it so You know option then immediately, you know, I was making I was trying to make the decision of do I do this all in it even money or do I just focus on the top three market and see if maybe my book or some other books post some props or some matchups or just kind of mess around on prize picks if you can in your state or grid rival if you can in your state and minus 200 my mind like forget it. There's too many things that go wrong. There's too many factors. It's too close in any car. It's not like he's out qualifying people by, you know, more than a second if that you're talking tense ⁓ so ⁓ yeah just not going to touch the outright market really at all ⁓ now that's now that's prequels if something goes haywire and qualifying maybe pull out qualifies third fourth fifth sixth you know the fourth fifth range i feel like is a sweet spot and the books maybe throw up like a plus 150 plus 175 like there better be a plus in front of it still Then I'll dive into that market, but for me right now You know I don't want to just not bet it. I can't do that. It's not in my blood I got a if I'm gonna if I'm watching up then and and I feel like I can still find an edge So I'm looking at the top three market. I made two bets already Actually two bets and I have one that I threw a little like very small unit on I might play with more pot of award I think the history is pretty good here. I he's been pretty consistent this year. So top three on Pado is a bet I made. Graham, you've already seen people mentioning Graham online. He was already a target of mine before the odds even came out. Ton of good history here. He knows how to keep it clean. So Ray Hall top three was another one. And then just for a little fun, I thought the Dennis Hauger top three number was pretty spicy. At 40 to one, some books I saw 65 to one at 365. @f1capper: Bet US has it at 60 to one. Now you've got my attention. You've got my attention. Indy_Bet: Yeah, so look, I feel like I'm going to try to play around in the top three market. I'm not going to go crazy. Instead of trying to make a ton of money to build my 500 bankroll, I'm just going to try not to bet a lot and lose my bankroll so I can bet it on the 500, if that makes sense. yeah, so I'll sprinkle a little bit. I'll wait for quals. I haven't really seen any matchups or props on Caesars like they've done for other races. I don't know if we've just been killing. getting they've been getting killed on those and they have no hold percentage and they're pulling them or maybe they're just looking to post the 500 number so that's what that's where I'm at right now. ⁓ We'll see if something opens up at calls. Look if you want to bet outright market just pick some like you are getting good numbers so like at least I'll say that there's plenty of 1220s you can poke around it. @f1capper: And I'm gonna go the other way. And this is not to be a spite to you, Nate, but I just don't think the outright markets are worth it for this race especially. I just don't see it. don't see, when you got a below dominant track, his odds are not worth it, of course. And then they're pricing like Kirkwood and the others at like... four to one, know, six to one, and I'm like, is it really worth our time to be throwing that much money on whoever? I get it if you're trying to do the long shots, but let's be real, like how many of these long shots have actually hit in the past like three years? I'm just going back three years too. You're probably gonna have slim to none, but that's why they're a long shot at the end of the day. you know what, if you're here for the thrill, go for it. But if you're actually trying to manage a bankroll, it's just not worth it to me. And I do like the plays on the top three. I am still hesitant, I'm still stung by Pato. But that number is pretty good, even though like, you might be able to find a four to one. But right now I think it's about plus 325 at this point. Most places maybe plus 350, however. I'm struggling with Rahal. Because I feel like he's juiced a little bit more, especially with his recent performances. Indy_Bet: Yeah. @f1capper: especially with grid rival because it's I saw him at eight and a half and was like man I'm struggling at eight and a half like what are we doing like normally I'm used to him maybe at a track that he's good at 12 and a half now we're we're getting docked for four spots into that eight territory and Plus 450 like do we really think he's gonna do but he's been actually Quietly been pretty pretty solid. I mean, we've seen some good performance and this should be a good track. I'm hoping that if I do take it, I just feel like I take it and then we just get reversed to the mean, right? Like he just, something happens and we're back to what we normally dealt with with Ray Hall during his struggles. So. Indy_Bet: I don't think the books will move his number if he does well in practice on Friday. I think your four to one is going to stay there for top three. So like, think you'll know pretty quickly in practice one, ⁓ if Ray Hall is somewhere in the top of the board, top five, like I think usually you know when speed's coming from him and the Ray Hall camp, the Foster's, their whole car. like we'll know right away if they've got it or not. And I don't think the number will fall. So you can wait. @f1capper: Yeah. Indy_Bet: If you see him posting top three laps, top five laps in practice, then I think that's a sign that that top three is a decent bet at that number. If they're not, they don't roll off the truck fast. Ray Hall's not, they're not finding speed later. You know, they're not going to find speed like a Penske or a Ganassi or a top team with these engineers that are, mean, I mean, probably more pay, uh, higher paid and smarter. So. @f1capper: Yeah, I'll tell you what though. I like your your shout on how your 60 to one. I'm going to lose this ten dollars. Why not? Let's let's throw it at a at a 60 to one here. Indy_Bet: So. Yeah, Nate, won the lights race, Was it more than once? I know once. @iN8Rodgers: Yep. I they only raced once, I did look at that, but he won like almost every road course I think, you know, if you needed a little more. But ⁓ yeah, no, I like this, this is the race to do something like that, you know, I mentioned someone like VK or Grosjean on coin and I agree that that's a fun play and you can't do that many other tracks and like this is the most legit chance I think where something like that could happen. Indy_Bet: Okay. Yeah, could skip a coffee and throw 10 bucks on that and boom. @f1capper: Yeah, that's what I'm doing right now. I'm confirming that. I don't mind that at all. And it's okay. It's what I call a little donation to the books because sometimes you need to keep your account healthy. I like that. Yeah, I think for, I'm still on the fence. I want to take on these numbers, but I just don't, I don't know. When we talk about Andretti, I know a lot of us kind of share the same thing where we're like, this may not be the best spot for Andretti. I don't think they're going to do terrible, but I also don't think they're going to be like the dominant team. But what is the thought? this is overall, like, let's just power, you know, what do we think of power? What do we think of Kirkwood and Ericsson, I guess? I have to bring them in the mix. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, just I think this place is just weird where I bet I bet you and ready is not that far off but it's because these margins are so slim that if they're not like on their game maybe in the last two years that then we just see them qualify like 14 through 19 and just just look rough and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again but we also kind of thought that would happen at barber and then they had decent speed especially Kirkwood Kirkwood probably could have pulled it barber if he didn't get you know cute with the choice of saving his alternates So stuff changes a lot here. And it's also hard to read, to look into last year's practice results and qualifying results, because IndyCar did something last year where you had to run two primaries and two alternates mandated in the race. And that really threw teams off. And some teams didn't even practice on alternates in P1 or P2. And then they just tried to qualify on them. And I think that hurt McLaren last year. I think that's why even you look at practice two, see teams like, ⁓ I think like, who knows, like Sting Ray Robb was like fourth in practice two or something and Connor Daly was fifth or, you know, just really weird results. And I don't think we have actually the best read, I guess is just what I'm getting around to of, of where everyone is at this. But I would rank Andretti lower than Penske, lower than Ganassi, lower than McLaren and even lower than Rayhull's team. @f1capper: Yeah, that's actually where I was gonna go is like then where do we see like Maluchus power, not power, but New Garden, like McLaughlin. I don't know honestly what, I couldn't tell you what to expect from McLaughlin. I can kind of sense what I can expect from New Garden. I just, but then Maluchus, I have more faith in both of them, which is weird to say. Indy_Bet: Yes. Yeah, McLaughlin's probably, I already had the wake up in the middle of the night, McLaughlin's gonna win this race and it's gonna be the first race of the year don't have money on him. Nightmare. Yeah, yeah, that's, that's, already, I've already been through that mind exercise. If he's fast in practice, you can, you can bet that I'm gonna bet him. But I think, look, in terms of the Andretti thing, I think Nate mentioned it like. @f1capper: That's what it sounds like. Indy_Bet: There is ⁓ these road courses, especially Indy, which they're so familiar with, I think like elevates all the lower teams just a little bit. So we always see, and we're talking tents of a second here. So that's way we always see a carpenter, a coin. ⁓ One of these like, you know, hopefully, Hogger pops out of nowhere and ⁓ is gonna put a car in that top five or be competitive in qualifying or show up in the Fast Six. And I think when those cars level up into that third, like they basically clog up the Andretti tier as far as I'm concerned. And that just, that's why we see Andretti come down. Look, you want to make the case that Will Powers got history here. He does. He's got, I I've made a lot of money on Will Power at this track, top three, ⁓ over the years since they started doing this. ⁓ But man, I think I just, when I go right back to just powers done and, ⁓ I think that's it for them and I don't expect much out of any the Andretti cars. They won't have any of my money unless it's a fade on grid arrival. @f1capper: I, we will get to that because I do have one which is a fade of power, but no, and I think that's, that makes sense. mean, with this type of track, I've raced it on iRacing many times and I'll tell you what, it's one of my favorite tracks, but it is one of those forgiving tracks. Like, you when you look at Barber, when you look at some of these other, especially a street circuit track that we have, you don't have room for error, but IMS gives you that. There's room. There's a lot of room in these turns. They're kind of like these medium wide sweeper turns, right? So it seems to resonate a lot with a lot of these drivers. It's pretty quick to pick up too. If you're a new driver on the circuit, like you mentioned, Hauger, well, technically it's not new, but in the Indy car itself, it's a pretty easy way to pick up and know what you need to do at every turn, every corner. And then it's just about, you know, the small margin. Can you extract that much speed? Can you take it to, you know, a little bit further in terms of the stop, the stopping zones, right? Like, so it's, I'm interested to see how it turns out. However, there was something we talked about, which is potential weather impacts for qualifying. Just kind of a breaking news in my end, about an hour ago, I saw someone report like there could potentially be a wet qualifying. I don't know what that's going to be like. Nate, maybe you could tell us more about the Indianapolis weather since you are in that region. But if there is wet qualifying, that's going to shake up things. And that's going to shake up the books. And that should actually present better opportunities for us come Saturday. Actually, it's on Saturday this week. So yeah. What do you think about that? Do you think we're going to see some rain first off? @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I mean it's it's spring in the Midwest, you know, so like the the showers come that they go It's it's hard to say we'll see you couldn't you know, a couple years ago, it was it was guaranteed to rain the whole Indy 500. And then was like the most beautiful day the whole day. So like, you know, we just kind of have to like, wait and see. I thought the two rain qualifying sessions that come to my mind, which there aren't really a lot, but there was barber. @f1capper: Yeah, that's right. @iN8Rodgers: There's Barbara a couple years ago or maybe no is wrote America a couple of a couple of years ago. Loomquist got his poll. So this is probably this is probably twenty twenty four then. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. @iN8Rodgers: That was probably the most wet qualifying session we've had. got dry as the session went on. And then same thing, I think it was like Long Beach or maybe Toronto. It was a street race where there was rain earlier and the track was still drying and evolving. And basically all you can get from that is, is there are going to be some weird people, you know, making it and not making it. And it does just kind of open up the lines a little bit, but, Indy_Bet: Yeah, I would say like look Indycar Weatherman on Twitter. I'm sure you guys follow him. ⁓ That dude is always spot on. So like at Indycar underscore WX man. I mean, as of eight hours ago, he says we're good to go. Rain in the morning, no impact at all. And he even like, he tells you impact or no impact to the race schedule. it. @f1capper: Yeah. Indy_Bet: Dude is usually spot on, maybe he can get ahead of the book. So I would just watch that and see from there. But yeah, I don't know. You have to wait. I think that's like a day of that's like one of those, Hey, get in the apex insiders discord, watch us on Twitter. That's where it's like, boom, hey, we're seeing this. We're going to make this bet because we know this is right now, or this is what you know, is going to happen. but anyways, I got about boys. I'm going to let you guys do grid rivals, the bets. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Yeah, yep. Indy_Bet: ⁓ Good luck to everybody. I'm trying to make some money and I'm excited for what we got, a bunch stuff coming for the 500. @f1capper: We'll see you tomorrow. All right, yeah, and Nate, let's, we didn't even go through your pics. You have a lot, it sounds like, and I apologize for my dog. I'm gonna try to get her under control, but I'm gonna let you talk about your pics. @iN8Rodgers: See you, Mike. I think the dog is just saying like make the bets you know like just just make make a couple bets like yeah yeah like we you know pillow @f1capper: The dogs are barking, right? That's it. @iN8Rodgers: Pelo minus 200 or whatever, it's never scared me. And I happily enter in this world of delusion where the race ends and I look over my wife and I'm like, man, the four guys I bet on just finished second through sixth. And then she goes, well, why don't you just bet Pelo? And I'm like, you're right, you're right, but it's not that easy. It's the, yeah. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. It's not as simple, babe. You don't understand. She doesn't get it. @iN8Rodgers: But the CLV I got, you wouldn't even believe it. But so that's where I'm looking to be on Saturday again most likely but I Think a few of us found Louie Foster at like 150 to 1 just to start off as an one of those kind of beer money plays He qualified I think third here last year He's been a little rough this year, but you know, hopefully the Indy Road course can can kind of bring him to life I was really hoping for a top five on him. I would love that more than a win or podium play Just as like to have friends to have a splash day as a top five. We haven't seen those. As far as other outrights, I really am interested in McLaughlin a little bit. When you look at his stats here the last couple of years, they're steadily improving. ⁓ I believe he was the best Chevy technically on like a lap pace. Last year him and award were ⁓ right there with each other. ⁓ And then ⁓ New Garden has made the Fast Six the last two races here, which ⁓ That kind of more keeps my interest in McLaughlin that team strength ⁓ I might put a couple pennies on Newgar and he got kind of screwed last year with ⁓ I think he had like a Seatbelt issue again to what before the race even started and so even though he qualified six he started last and still salvaged his day with like a Yeah, he ended up 12th. So he worked his way all the way from like last to 12th. And so New Garden had good pace last year too. That was another person I was looking for. If a top five comes out, you'll see me taking that. ⁓ Other hourly I might take a war to I like a ward here, but ⁓ McLaren's qualifying kind of gave me a little pause obviously we all like loon guard here, too ⁓ And so as far as bets that I haven't made yet I will be kind of looking at award loon guard McLaughlin and just kind of seeing where the numbers go for me this weekend ⁓ Other than that, I do have I took Ray Hall at 20 to 1 just for a real small Like the outrights I do make I'll probably be under a half a unit total so that when Palo does win it won't ruin my day, but ⁓ You know, I'll probably stay pretty pretty low Yeah @f1capper: keeps the account healthy, like I said, you you have to, you have @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ Some matchups I got into ⁓ Foster over Ferrucci. think that's one I'll probably add to which I'm pretty surprised the the number hasn't moved very much at all. Ferrucci and AJ Floyd just not very strong on road courses. This is a good place to take Foster if you don't want to waste your money on on an outrider podium which is a little more unlikely. ⁓ Some other matchups Lundgaard over Kirkwood kind of things we've already discussed where you know Lundgaard is just excellent here and Andretti has you know something they need to prove a little more ⁓ McLaughlin over power once again right around even money Same thing I I'm not against Penske here. I kind of like them and fading and Andretti a little less on this one a half a unit dialing it back new garden over Rosenquist Felix has good pace here. Myer Schenck was a little off here last year. So ⁓ This was just a nice place to take New Garden If he could get a top ten, maybe he you know pulls that through a Rayhull podium at six to one I use the profit boost to get it up to that ⁓ @f1capper: That's actually really good. That's a solid move right there if you can use your profit boost on something like that. @iN8Rodgers: which I think it was around 4 to 1 like you guys are saying. There was a stat that think Ray Hall's finished top 10 here like 13 out of 15 years or something. @f1capper: Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at the stats that I put together on Twitter. ⁓ And by all means, that's not like there's no method to the madness here. It's just basic looking at drivability is what I do this all the time with F1. Like who likes this track is basically what it comes out to. Maybe you find the trend in the team as well. Like you see multiple teams, so it still was up top. And looking at Ray Hall, he's had an average just from the last three years. And he struggled a lot too in those years. 10.67 in 2023, 11.33. So he's finishing like, and that skewed because in F in free practice one, practice one, he had like a P 17, but then he was like eighth, ninth and eighth for the race, right? Like, so he's, he's always in there in the top 10. It seems like he has some pace and I liked the I like the move just because what we're seeing here recently and maybe I've just undersold what they can do. Maybe I'm just the RLL hater at times, but he's really looked pretty solid. Barber was an example of it. Like they kept pace, right? Like they're building on something. Can they carry it over this weekend, especially while the odds are favorable to you. @iN8Rodgers: And it's worth mentioning that his, his team is third in pit performance this year so far, which was still a small sample, but on average, the previous three seasons, they were 14. And I think that's where you're seeing the results finally come in where before we see pace out of Ray Hall and then they find a way to just kind of fall back. And so I think that's where, you know, they finally came through with a podium and barbers because they're delivering him, which that was actually their worst day. @f1capper: Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: that they've had so far in the pits, you it still worked out for him. so maybe the grid rival spot is really the best place to take Ray Hall, which I'm kind of bummed I didn't get on that 8.5 that I think you guys got because like you know that gets you closer to when he's finishing these top tens that's as close as you can get right now to a top ten for Ray Hall. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Yeah, and I think that that number is still was like for me is like my mind when I look at grid rival, it's funny how different it could be. I'm like, ⁓ I'm willing to possibly take this long shot for a top three, but eight and a half. I don't know. Like, it's just kind of funny how my mind works. But yeah, I think that's where my mind was going was just, ⁓ this is let's consider it their home track, right? Like this is. They seem to always extract performance. We saw it from foster last year, even this year. So. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. @f1capper: I was like, I gotta take this at under because I mean, he's, I mean, just looking at the stats, it's like he's finishing in the top 10. So this is, let's take that chance on it. @iN8Rodgers: When Devlin D. Francesco wheels it around this place in a Rayhawk car, you know they've got something. That's, @f1capper: Exactly. Like, you know, that's exactly the point. And he's a seasoned driver, so I'm hoping it works out my favor. Yeah, I am on that ⁓ Foster over Ferrucci, too. I love that play. Out of all the matchups, mean, there's a few out there, and I thought like the number at minus 115, I was like... I think that's a good number to take Foster even though he struggled. am worried about that, but at minus 115 I'm willing to take on that pre pre flop as I would say so That's probably my only bet outside of now this Hauger top three that I'm just donating to the books. So I like it well, I will say Tomorrow because it's gonna be full day. So we have both practices and qualifying happening in all in one day I am going to put together as much data as I can, even including qualifying and try to populate all that stuff for everyone. So it's really worked. will say it's given me the confidence now that I'm kind of training the model to say like, let's understand this a little bit more. putting in, I'm not just putting in just generic times. I'm pulling in all the sector times. I'm trying to see. Where is there consistent pace between teams and drivers? And the reason why I bring that up was I'm never a type that likes group betting. And in the last race, just based off the data, I went and attacked a couple of group bets. One of them, think most of us were kind of aligned on, and it was my way of taking Palo for an outright, which was him at like plus 160 over Kirkwood and didn't matter who the other two was. And then the Dixon one. where I was like, wow, this seems like total disrespect. He was like the four to one, I think it was, or something like that, six to one against his group. And I had the utmost confident because of what the data was telling me. I took it and it was easy, easy win. So we got that. So I'm looking forward. That's why I'm tempering. I'm not gonna do anything more. I'd like that foster Ferrucci. I said, I'm not gonna do anything more. I wanna wait till we get the qualifying grid. see some data, and then I'm going to attack. So that's my plan. So if you're listening to this, be on the lookout. I will tweet it as well. I will try my best to be as fast as I can, but I'm working with whenever they post the timing sheets. So. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, watch this. this will be a weird day where all the two practice sessions and qualifying happens in one day. And so I will say if there's anything that you're on the fence on, you might have to place it before tomorrow morning. There is a larger gap between practice two and qualifying than there has been in previous years. So there is a chance that we get odds reposted, but I don't know that you can bank on it when it's on one day. So if there's something that you want, but you know, that's just @f1capper: Mm-hmm. @iN8Rodgers: kind of my advice to people is like you might for this you might have to just go ahead and play it or live with not playing it because I don't know that you'll get it back tomorrow once the day starts. @f1capper: Yeah, so for everyone to know 9am Eastern is practice one 1pm Eastern is practice two and then 5.30 Eastern is going to be qualifying. So like you're saying there might be an opportunity between the gap. wouldn't I wouldn't bet on it. I would say you will you will see odds before the warm-up on Saturday. Some books have actually kept some odds up, but most likely they'll all take it down. And we're probably gonna have a race to try to hopefully get to the books around, I don't know, 2 p.m. Eastern and hoping and refreshing that something pops up. ⁓ But one thing we can always count on that we'll post, at least lately, is grid rival. So let's talk about your grid rival plays, @iN8Rodgers: I did two of them which you know the last few races I've been putting in like six so I guess we'll call this pretty light. ⁓ But I did Kirkwood worse with a Lugard better. ⁓ @f1capper: No! @iN8Rodgers: I still like fading Kirkwood there, if someone liked McLaughlin at 6.5 or the Rahall like we talked about 7.5, I think that's a good spot to change out with Lungard. And then the other player was Ferrucci worse with Foster better, which is funny because I put this in before that matchup even came out. ⁓ they're kind of around the same number of the fosters at 12.5, Frucci's at 14.5, and so we've already kind of talked about why we like that, but fits right into a little correlation. @f1capper: Yeah, now I wish I would have saw that play because I was like, damn, Ferrucci was at 14 and a half. I think he was bumped now to 15 and a half. I did like the Kirkwood one. I took a little different route on my combination. I took Kirkwood worse at four and a half. I mean, it's just more of a, there's, is my, Andretti may not do well here. I feel like I'm playing with fire a little bit with it, but I felt like that's kind of his peak. potentially and then I Paired it with Ray Hall eight and a half because I was already on the fence on that like if I'm gonna be on the fence of these two might as well throw them both together And then I did I Loved this one. This was my favorite and this is the first one ⁓ was the willpower worse at five and a half with lungard better five and a half, so My only concern is like you mentioned already earlier is ⁓ qualifying for McLaren like can we please just have some competence on I guess tomorrow Friday and and just Be good be good on Friday or qualifying so I can actually feel good about my pick because if not I'm going to still attack Lungard, whatever his number is. I expect if he gets in like P12, you're still gonna see like a P, a seven and a half number, you know, you're not gonna get much off of that five and a half, but it was already kind of, I felt like a stretch at five and a half. But correlation, five and a half, both of them expect power to be worse. I expect Lungard to be better. And that's kind of went into my play with Kirkwood being worse than four and a half. I don't. No, if they're, you know what? I've been doing this, we have to do this. So let's cook up a pod play. Well, we have to, I mean, it's a muscle. Let's cook up some, I've been avoiding Rossi like the plague, man. I do not know what I'm gonna get out of that man this weekend. It's either he's gonna be like P6 or he's gonna be P18. So I'm not gonna even bother with it. ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. Rossi's kind of like, and he's kind of putting together a little bit of like this Scott Dixon stuff where he keeps saving his day where the previous few years if he was just rough to start the weekend, he would kind of finish us. But he, you know, he just hangs around that eight, nine, 10. It's so hard to fade or take. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, I just don't know what to do with it. I kinda, now that we've talked about Halger, I'm kinda interested in that 17 and a half better. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. @f1capper: with ⁓ maluchis is at eight and a half What do we think of Maluchus here? I don't really have a lot of... @iN8Rodgers: So Maluchas is, he has really struggled here. He has like one of the worst average qualifiers, which he's going to be in a way better car. He's just in really good form, his average qualifying is like 21 here overall. And then his average finish is 19.5. He's never had a top 10 here. And so he even talked about it. He said this track has been a struggle for me and he was looking forward to turning that around. So my, I've been kind of leaving him alone this weekend, not fading him, not taking him, but my lean here would be to take worse because he's just been so, he's been steady, but this is not a good track for him. feel like. @f1capper: Yeah, I'm not gonna mess with that now. What about Rasmussen? @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, mean, see, he's finished 19th and 20th here before, and he's qualified 19th and 20th. Wow, that's interesting. @f1capper: Well, yeah, and in 2024, he qualified 15th and finished the race 16th. So he's not like moving up in spots. It could be a good correlation like Dennis just has to get to P16 or we just need Rasmussen to be a donkey and finish P17 or higher but I also feel like maybe he's gotten slightly better just slightly better on us @iN8Rodgers: I think Rasmussen is getting there a little bit, this is going to be harder to take. Maybe do we want to fade Seagull? See, he's been... @f1capper: ⁓ man, yeah, he I've been on the wrong end of that man. I feel like every race this year. ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: You more fading like vk's he has that win here @f1capper: That's the one that that's the one he has that win and I know I remember that win too because I I won that long shot on him That year and like what was it? 2021 2022 Yeah Yeah, I know and that's why probably why I like the guy too It's like okay. I like this guy and then he just hasn't done much but @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. 2021, yeah, I think I have 40 to one on it. Yeah. There's so many people in that like five to eight range, but it gets hard when you're trying to correlate here with like the, I do, I like the Hauger one. @f1capper: Yeah? I do too. actually really do. It's either that or I just go back to Christian or fading power or fading Kirkwood @iN8Rodgers: Maybe fading Ericsson at 11 and a half. Let's see. He's, he's never really been great here. @f1capper: You don't have to tell me on that one. Tell you what, tell you what, that's what we're gonna do. We're gonna do that one and let's just hope that Howard doesn't like kick it in and do so awesome because I would love to get another 17 and a half. I might cook something else later too, we'll see. All right, that's the one. That's gonna be the pod play. That is the one. All right. Yeah, let's do it. Let's do it. @iN8Rodgers: is I might throw that one in too. @f1capper: I'm all for that. All right. ⁓ and also let's not forget price picks. I believe we're gonna, I believe we're gonna see some price picks. So we saw it last race. Well, I'll be scanning it, but I'm super pumped about that. It does sound like they're gonna continue to post up plays. There's just a little bit different though. They're not gonna just do better and worse. It's by... Fantasy points, so make sure you read the rules or get in the discord and we'll explain them to you and tell you which ones to take because there's a lot of different nuances with it with the plus minus and Laps led and stuff like that. So I expect so let's make sure we are hawking that because they give us some extremely favorable, favorable lines. I think all the ones we talked about you could have mixed and matched all of them and they would have all hit. So it's crazy. @iN8Rodgers: It was kind of easy that was, yeah, but the partnership kind of already started off just weird. So I guess we'll have to see what they, they launched the car. @f1capper: It was... It was cr- @iN8Rodgers: the partnership while the driver and the team were like halfway across the country. Someone even caught like a quick audio clip of Hunter Ray. They weren't even recording him but he was just in the background and he was like they couldn't have waited a day for me to just get back to Florida to like launch the car together but okay that's like it. So yeah yeah I guess we'll look at it that way we'll see what they give us. @f1capper: Yeah, they were pumped. Well, and also another tell was ⁓ Price picks discord. They just put the IndyCar channel back up out of nowhere and it just resurfaced. So it's like, ⁓ we are definitely going to get some IndyCar. sounds like, or at least @iN8Rodgers: Maybe I'll take one for the, I'll create like five discord accounts and just start chatting with myself in there to make it seem like the interest is really there so that they keep ⁓ posting. @f1capper: It's a I'm having someone get on the inside and try to say, get into our Indy card chat. We're talking it, so we're active with it. It's just hard for me to wanna go bouncing back and forth. I wish I could, but when you're running a Discord on your own, it's already pretty challenging enough. But I'm hoping it continues though. I am cautious because I think they're only gonna maybe do it for Indy 500 potentially, since it's... We don't know, but I'm hoping they will continue it. So we'll keep an eye out. We'll see. We'll see what happens. But any last thoughts or anything that you want to tell the audience? @iN8Rodgers: No, I'm going to have some more picks here probably tonight in the morning. I'm really just holding out for a top five market. I asked MGM if they were going to do it, and they were like, I don't know. How would we know? So that was kind of weird. But I'm guessing that's probably a no. So I'll have a few more picks out before things kick off Friday morning. And I will be at work not doing anything and just watching practice. @f1capper: Yeah, I got a, didn't realize it was 9 a.m. Eastern, which is 8 a.m. my time. So I'm like, damn, I'm going to have to actually like be ready and alert and going at 8 a.m. So I, I guess it's going to be, dude, I love that though. I'm making, I got to make sure I clear my calendar though, that the 12 o'clock is what's going to happen. That's going to be a little, okay. I got, I got something else going on around that time. So I'm going to have to try to figure it out. So we'll see. @iN8Rodgers: Indy car for breakfast. Yeah, the calendar is interesting for this. The qualifying is really late, like almost a prime time, like 6 PM. And then the race starts at nearly 5 o'clock, which is just really odd. But I'll be there. Yeah. @f1capper: Yeah, I always thought it was like 2 PM, right? It was like a 2 PM race and yeah, and that's, that's one interesting point. Probably should have talked about it earlier, but I just thought about it was track evolution could be a little bit different track performance. guess I'm like to bring out my F1 stuff, but when you're, when you're doing the practices at 8 AM, you know, ⁓ and especially if it rains like earlier, everything gets washed out green track. then by one o'clock you're hoping like, okay, things are gonna be rubbered in. It's probably gonna be warmer around that time and then as it gets to about 4.35, it probably still be warm, but you might see a different performance between what happens in each practice session and into qualifying and then same thing on Saturday between warmups and in the race, but we'll see. We'll let the data tell us. So, all right guys, we'll get into the Discord. We will be in there. get everything live, real time. This is gonna be a quick turnaround, so I'm gonna try to post this as soon as I can. But again, if you want the real time action, just get into the Discord. All right, we'll see you this weekend.