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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Just Told Big Clients to Go ALL IN + Stock Market News 29 July 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Fubix and Rose here and other kittens, and we got our pause on the research from Wall Street.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: We've got Deutsche Bank 70 pages of charts and we've got JP Morgan's market intelligence.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going to share my screen with you so you can see what I can see.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Well, I want to, but it's still on camera.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I'm sitting on the mouse pad.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: So here we are.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: This is literally the full glory, and I'm actually going to give you that full document.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: You can literally download this at felixfriendsorg slash wow, which is the title of this, and I think it's a really, really good insight into just kind of where the market is and how the big banks see it.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through the keys charts here as well, but if you want to dig a little deeper, download it.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash wow Part of our mission, and here's JP Morgan Part of our mission to make you better informed, better you know just better on better investors, because I think you deserve the same information that everybody else on Wall Street has.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: For some reason, the buggers out there don't think that's true, but that's what we're all about here.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: The first key chart here from JP Morgan, which I think is super, super insightful is.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Everyone's going oh, we're at all-time highs, the stock market is expensive, I'm going to sit this out, I'm going to wait for the crash.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Statistically, that's a terrible idea because on this little chart here you've got in gray what happens if you invest on any given day, and then in blue so green even you have what happens if you invest at an all-time high in the S&P right.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: So in the long run, say on a three-year basis, you beat the market by 6%.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Same thing happens on a five-year basis.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So it's a good idea to buy the market at an all-time high statistically.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Why is that the case?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Because women are bull run.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: We tend to keep going.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: So take a screenshot of that.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Share it with some friends who are saying I don't want to invest right now.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: And the next question, of course, is like what are you actually going to invest in?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: And I'm very, very passionate about helping people understand how to invest and what to buy and when to buy and when to sell and when to take profits and when to like dump the losers, and all of that.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: I've packed like 10, 15 years of knowledge into literally 15 minutes and if you want to watch that, well, go and leave this video right now.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: It'll be way more insightful than what you could ever watch here in the next few minutes.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Felixrensselaer, get free, so you get to that.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: There's even a QR code on the screen here which you can scan and you will literally learn the three rules to better trading, better investing.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: It's basically the same thing, by the way, so you benefit from this.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: If you're an investor, you benefit.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Think I'm very old, but I'm not that old.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So in my entire life, this is the worst first half of the year for the US dollar life.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: This is the worst first half of the year for the US dollar, and I should know, because I bought something in a non-dollar currency and I had to pay about 10% more because the dollar dropped, which was a not inconsequential sum of money.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So thanks Trump.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Gold, though, and that's kind of this real silver lining gold has just had this beautiful bull run Again, the biggest bull run since before I was born.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I'm narrowing down the age here, aren't I?
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: And how do we participate in that?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Well, we haven't just been in gold, because, yes, gold's gone up like 25% this year, but we've been in gold minus no-transcript.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: It's like would you rather not be better at something you know, and this is like the one thing that actually leads to freedom.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So come and learn with us.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Come and learn, watch the masterclass.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: It's down below felixfrenzorg slash.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Get free and you'll have a more relaxed life, which is really what this is all about.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Now, this is an interesting one.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Usually, when I was taught economics, it was boom and bust cycles.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: That was sort of the old school thing where we had a few good years and then we had some really really horrible years.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: And we haven't really had that of late because basically, we're just getting longer and longer and longer boom and bust, boom cycles, for the simple reason that the people who run our central banks and the people who run our governments are wimps and they just can't stomach bad times, so they just think everything should always be a good time.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: You'll see that also.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I watched one of my lovely godchildren do a little performance and she's tremendous and she's amazing.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: But there was also somebody in the class who was just an absolute like didn't know what the heck he was doing.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: They all get the same certificate, right?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: It's that kind of mindset that's just like encroached upon everything, including economics and the stock market.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Now, if you're an investor.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Not a bad thing because, well, these cycles get longer and longer.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: It's kind of easier to make money.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So we are here right now.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So, therefore, it is very, very likely that this cycle is going to become a lot longer, which means what More years of golden opportunities for the market to go up.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: But I just say two things to you.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: One, you're going to really want to grab that golden opportunity by the horn, because it doesn't always happen that way.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: And secondly, there will be a crash.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: I guarantee it Absolutely.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: There will be a horrible 30% drawdown, karen, and I'm not saying that to scare you.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying that you need to be prepared for that.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: That's what happens, and if you're not prepared for that, then you probably shouldn't be in the market.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: But if you want to be prepared for that, again, learn how to do some risk management, how we automate that, and there is a link down below, as I say, for you to do that.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Now, this is the thing that a lot of people are worried about, and I want to walk you through this a little bit, because there was also a silver lining to this.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Us government debt is like out of freaking control.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: We know that they're spending like it's World War II.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I didn't realize there was one, but you know it's just insane.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Just like politicians are just really really well, they don't care, they don't care about the long run, they just care about being popular and we all like a freebie, apparently.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So therefore, you get this massive debt.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So the us debt is expected to hit.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: These are fairly long forecasts 134 according to moody's and there's a CBO one which is somewhere between 156% and 220%.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So crazy levels of debt, right, like sort of you know, italy, greece levels of debt.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Sorry, my Italian and Greek friends, but you know what I'm talking about.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: But there are assumptions in models and that's why I don't pay that much attention to it.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: You change one of the little assumptions, and what assumption are we changing here?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: The assumption we're changing here is if we add just 0.5% higher productivity in the US, what happens then?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Well, your debt thing actually becomes flat now, so you're not actually adding any debt, essentially.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: So what does this say to you?
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Well, ai better bloody work, but it also gives us silver lining.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if AI does that and it's entirely possible, it does that entirely possible, it does more than half a percent then the debt is no longer an issue because the economy is going to grow faster.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So take economists' assumptions and projections with a huge pinch of salt.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I remember growing up and they said there was a hole in the ozone layer and we were all going to die.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: That disappeared, they also said and the ozone layer was going to completely disappear.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: That disappeared.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: They also said and the ozone layer was going to completely disappear.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: They also said that all the forests would die within 30 years because of acid rain.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: That also hasn't happened, and now we're being told we will all drown within a few years because of global warming.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: And there are always assumptions in these models and they're not really that honest about them.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: And the same is true for any projection you make.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: 30 years out, you basically don't know what the heck's going to happen.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: But this is this is important, probably the most important bit of information here, and you might want to again take a screenshot of this or write this down.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: How many sectors are there, right?
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: You can have a look in uh in um trade vision, because you can see all the sectors in there.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Just click, click on the home symbol here on the top right and then on the heat map, and then you can see all the sectors right.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: So there are a fair few sectors, right, I don't know 20 or 30 or something.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: But If you own the index, you're in all of those sectors.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: But the reality is that in the real bull markets say like 2023, only three sectors performed.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Now, so far this year, there are only five sectors that have performed.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: So if you're in all the other 15, then 75% of your money is in the wrong thing.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Are you with me on that?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: If you're with me on that, put a W in the chat for with me on that.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And to me that's very, very important because you want to be selective where you put your money.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: And I know we've all been scared about moving our money about because, well, wall Street doesn't like it when we touch our money.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Apparently we're not smart enough.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Well, if you're smart enough to earn it, I think you're smart enough to manage it.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: That's the way I look at that.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I mean this little kitten is probably smart enough to manage it.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: She's just sleeping on my desk.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: She's sleeping on my desk, so on the mouse pad, actually, while she was sleeping on my chair and I moved her very gently and now she's curled up on my desk.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: It was just lovely.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Kitten's the greatest, really and, of course, winston.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: So what am I saying to you?
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Learn how to put your money in the right sector.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: It's really easy, it isn't guesswork, no, we just follow the money.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: We just see where is the Wall Street money going?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: And then we go oh, the money's going there, let's put it in there.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: And again, if you watch the masterclass down below, that will teach you how to pick those stocks.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Apply the same thing to sectors and magic happens Absolute magic happens.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: There's a link for you here.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: As you will have probably noticed, this isn't live.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Why not?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Because I'm out for a lovely dinner out for a lovely dinner and really life's all about enjoying yourself, and I love doing these live streams.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: By the way, it's one of my favorite things to do in the world.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: So it isn't like I don't like doing that, but sometimes I also like to go out for a really nice dinner.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So we're having a lovely Michelin star dinner, as we usually do, and the kittens will be sleeping.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Winston will be watching the market.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: I wish you a beautiful start to the day.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Big earnings, of course, are coming up.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Watch out for those and also watch out for the Fed on Wednesdays.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: If you're buying stocks this week, just watch out for the little earnings dates.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: You can see them in Trade Vision.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: So any chart you open up, you will see when they're coming up.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: And there have been quite a few that I was looking at.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I was like, oh, I wouldn't mind buying that one.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, yeah, but earnings is on two days.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Why don't we just set it out?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Because earnings are always a 50-50 event.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: You see these little E's down here.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: They tell you when earnings are.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: In this case here, this one's in September.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: It's obviously ages away, but if it's like one or two days away, you might want to think about that.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: That's something I didn't share my screen with you.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Here here you have the little ease you can.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: You can see that.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: So if you find these little morning updates useful, helpful, my friends share them with more people, because that's how we reach more people and more people become financially free, more people have a beautiful life and me and baby rose say, uh, thank you very much for tuning in.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: She's a really special color here.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you can see that all that well.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm manhandling you little monster.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: So enjoy your day and I hope to see you live tomorrow.