Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - It’s Over for the Stock Market: Trump’s ‘Planned’ Super Rally Explained + Stock Market News 27 June 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - It’s Over for the Stock Market: Trump’s ‘Planned’ Super Rally Explained + Stock Market News 27 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, welcome to this pre-market live stream, and I want to walk you through five things here that I think really matter.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to get Winston on the screen here, because, of course, that's essential to start any good day.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: You need a large nose.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: The first point is why no one understands this enormous cash injection just about to hit the market, but you will in the next couple of minutes.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Number two, why the US economy is actually slowing and why stocks will therefore soar, but counterintuitive, but it's important.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Number three, why the big, beautiful tax bill just got a lot more beautiful for us investors and why trade deals equal stock market rally.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: And then there is one truly unprecedented move that's going to make well fortunes, I'd say so that's what Winston stuck up today.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Of course, the following is financial advice.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: The information is so hot and exciting I had to take off my jacket.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: It's rather unusual.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: It's not sort of a day.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So if you're going to find this information useful there it is on the screen again then, uh, put a?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: U in the chat for useful.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: And, of course, as I say, winston, responsible for the whole shebang.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: So I need to pour myself some water.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: So, winston cam, I know it's the best invention ever, right?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Um, they're also kittens around somewhere, but they're a little harder to pin down, so we'll have to do with make do with winston most of the time.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: You can probably hear them squeal, though.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: So the first thing is what nobody understands and goldman sachs just put a note out on those 15 pages of boring drivel.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I'll give it to you in about less than a minute.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Okay?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: The SLR Supplementary Leverage Ratio.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Somebody kill me now.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: This sounds really boring.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: It's going to improve liquidity, but it is so important.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Now I think I'm going to have to move that cat, aren't I?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: This is the chart of charts we need to understand.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I'm going to have to just open that door one second.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: The cats obviously run this show.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Well, I also found my jacket on the way.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So what's this saying?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: So what they've just done is they've basically eased the rules for banks, which frees up money from their balance sheets, and that money will probably partially end up in government debt, which is one of the reasons they're doing it, because somebody's got to buy that debt.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: But we're talking about some pretty extraordinary numbers here, sort of $5.5 to $7 trillion.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So even if these banks are able to earn just a little bit of extra interest on that money, it will make them a lot of money.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Now, which bank will benefit the most from this?
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Can you see that on the chart here?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: It is blue.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I'm just checking that my glasses are showing the right color.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: It is that blue there and that is BAC.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: What's BAC?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Bac is Bank of America and I could say we saw this coming.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: We did see this coming.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Because I gave a buy signal on Sunday to buy BAC at about 45.70 or thereabouts and since then Bank of America, after its classic textbook move, this one here literally bloody textbook stuff is up.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: How much?
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: How much is it up by?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So the smart people who understand this are now up 3.6.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: That doesn't sound like a lot, but I think it could go up bigly from here.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So I still think this is a bullish setup, especially if we take out these 47, 90 or so highs here, 48 dollar highs.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Those are the february and the november highs.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: So you take those out and the world's your banker, if you know what I'm saying there.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: So obviously not financial advice, but this looks very, very bullish.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: But overall, this is very, very good news because all that money will help to keep interest rates down because there's more demand for bonds, therefore.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So, overall, a good thing.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Winston is sighing.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: He is a little sleepy at this time of the day.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: You have to bear in mind that it's 9pm our time, as we're in Hong Kong at present, so therefore we're 12 hours ahead of most of you lot.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So what about stocks?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Are we therefore going to buy?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Well, would you like to be in these stocks before they go up?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Because actually it's really predictable and it isn't some sort of magic eight ball you need for it.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: You just need rules and learn how to pick great stocks, and it's so simple.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: You'll shake your head and you say why doesn't everybody know this?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Why doesn't everybody do this?
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Well, because not everybody comes and shows up.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I got a comment yesterday, someone saying Felix, can you do this?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: A few hours later, I'm in West Coast time, it's 7am my time.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: That just doesn't work for me, and I wrote back.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Well, one of my early mentors was always in Chicago and the only time he could talk to me was at 3am my time, and I showed up, and I'm very glad I did.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So it's a question of wanting to learn.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Do you actually want to retire better?
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Do you actually want to have more money.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Do you actually not want to be worried about your investments and your time and all that kind of stuff?
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: And if that's you, then come and join me on Saturday.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: It's free.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: It's about an hour and a half felixfrenzelogcom webinar.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So even if you start off in your PJs, I won't be able to see you.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So you can sit there naked for all I care, with a drip of coffee going into you.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: But I know the people who have showed up and paid attention benefited from this tremendously in the past.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: So come, enjoy it, show up there.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: And, yes, you can hear the naughty cat, can't you?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Is it Winston's birthday, is it?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: No?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: No, no, he doesn't really have.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Well, we don't actually know when he was born, you see.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So he has sort of um, it's an official birthday, I think on on may 1st, but that's completely random date we sort of pick just so he has one.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Uh, we have no idea when he was born, he was adopted.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Now the next point why we are uh bullish.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: And, yes, there is a lot of like noise around here.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Let me see, actually, if I've got.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I've got uh noise suppression on.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Yes, still pretty noisy, isn't it?
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Cats are noisy.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: This data came on yesterday and it's bigly important.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's really like earth-shratteringly important.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: It's gdp growth for the quarter, right?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Does anybody think that the economy might matter?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: The us economy?
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: If you think it matters, put a one in the chart.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: If you think it doesn't matter, put a two in the chart.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Now we're expecting it to shrink moderately at 0.2 percent.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: That was kind of the expectation.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Now it came in at minus 0.5 percent, which is quite big, quite a big difference, right.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: It's also a huge drop from the 2.4% before.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: A lot of this is going to be influenced by extra imports from tariffs, but still, if you take this data and you combine it with the data that literally came out 40 minutes ago, which is this, and you can see how this has all got three stars right, which means it's important, and you get that information.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Where can you get that information?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: In Trade Vision.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: There's a link down below there too, for Trade Vision.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: It's a free trial.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: There's a QR code you can even scan, and then you can get that data and it pops up for you every single day and you'll see which one matters because it has three stars.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: That's important data.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So we've got personal spending.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: We're expecting it to be 0.1%.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It came in negative.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Personal spending dropped.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: What about personal income?
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: We're expecting that to grow.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: 0.4%.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: It dropped 0.4%.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: It's almost as if in the estimates people just forgot to put the minus in front.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: That's a big drop.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Now, is that good or bad?
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Is that good or bad?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Put a plus in the chat if you think it's good.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Put a minus in the chat if you think it's bad.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: And then inflation ticked up slightly 0.1% from expectations.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Not a huge move, but just a little bit.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Now, to me, let me see if you agree with me on that.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: With me, the lower spending and the drop in personal income is good news.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Now, not for the people whose income dropped, obviously, but I do believe it is good news.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: And it is good news for the following reasons uh, fox, thanks my friend for uh, for pinning the webinar link there.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: That's very, very kind of you.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: In fact, I can probably do one better and also pin that to the top of the chat for anybody who hasn't signed up for that yet.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: That just pinned.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that just pinned.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Why is it good news?
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Because a slower economy does what?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Well, it means the Fed must cut rates right, and I know everyone's like oh, this Powell guy, he's never going to cut, he's never going to cut, he just doesn't want to cut.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: But there is.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: You can trade the expectations of when the Fed cuts interest rates.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Sounds a bit balmy, but that's what people get up to.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: People get very bored.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: You can trade it.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: And for September this is September, so for September we now have.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: So this is the interest rate.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Now it's 4.25% and the likelihood of a quarter point cut or a four-point, half-point cut is now what's that?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: 80, 90, 91%.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: There's a 91% chance that we're going to get a September cut.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: You know what that means.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: What goes up in a cut?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Fintech goes up in a cut.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: The sort of archetype stocks go up in a cut.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: All the high-risk stuff goes up in a cut.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Fintech is up in a cut.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: The sort of archetype stocks go up in a cut.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: All the high risk stuff goes up in a cut.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Crypto should go up with interest rates cut.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: All that kind of sort of high risk stuff should go and look about as exciting as Winston looks right now.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So this is bullish stuff, stuff.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Now you're therefore going to have to ask yourself well, what stocks do we buy to prepare for this.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Well, as I say, I'll teach you that on Saturday if you come and join me.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Phoenixfriendsorg slash webinar Link is down below.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: What are those crowns next to some people's names?
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I think they are the people who are most active.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: I think it sort of rewards the most active now.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: So you're going to have to be a lot more active.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, housing is another one.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Construction I see in there for sure.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is also beautiful.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: What's this about?
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Well, remember the big, beautiful bill, and I think I did a video on that.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: There was a section in that.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: What was it called?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: 886 or something.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: It basically allowed the US government to kind of tax foreigners who had invested in the US sort of fairly randomly, really odd kind of provision.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: That just got nixed.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: It's gone and that's therefore a good thing for the stock market because foreigners will no longer have the concern that they might get sort of penalized randomly by the US government.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Sofi yeah, I'm also thinking SoFi.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Sofi has been on our buy list this week and it's looking pretty good.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I've got a call option open on SoFi at present.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: And then we got this Ludnick says China deal was signed and sealed two days ago.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Chinese press just confirmed it, so it's a real thing.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Now, this isn't a fully fledged sort of 100% everything is done kind of a deal.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: This is more of a sort of like pre-deal, I imagine, around let's get some rare earths moving and that sort of thing, and supply the Chinese with ethane, which they need to make plastic.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: So good news, though, and then we are also promised more deals.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: It's all good news, and the deadline remember that 90-day extension that expires july 9th.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: It could be changed, says the white house, so there isn't going to be this cliff.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: We're not going to all like go back to you know, um, have a look at this.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: This is very cute.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Um, can you see winston there?
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Winston with albert, obviously more important than than interest rates.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: This is naughty, albert, very stripy.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: So you're going to sit in front of the camera, are you, albert?
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: He's like we need a cat cam.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Come on, this is racism, isn't it?
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Speciesism?
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: So yeah, but in all seriousness, this is good news, because it just means that, while Trump talks very tough, he doesn't act as tough on tariffs, and for us in the market, that is a beautiful thing, because it means the fear has just gone out of the window with egg fried noodles, as they say.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Now, this is really the unprecedented, truly unprecedented.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: We've never seen anything like it.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: We have never seen an investment into a new technology to this degree.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: So the US hyperscalers which is, who are the US hyperscalers?
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: It's Amazon, it's Microsoft, it's Google, it's Meta, it's Oracle.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Together, we expect them to spend over a trillion dollars 2025, 2026, 2027.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: And look at how that's going to go up, look at how that's going to increase that spending.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Just extraordinary.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: And I'm sorry, I'm surrounded by cats who all want to get in and out of rooms.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Where can you find the online seminar?
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Are you serious?
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: There is a bar at the bottom of the screen.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: There is a link pinned to the top of the chat.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: There is the same link in the description, my friend.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: So please click on one of those and and you shall, you shall be set free.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Uh, so this is extraordinary and what it's going to do is, well, it's just going to drive massive, massive, massive growth in, obviously, ai chip manufacturers and the whole kind of space.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: You know, your oracles, your, your I mean your Dells and everybody else who's kind of in that supply chain space of semiconductor kind of supercomputers.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: So this is just going to continue and maybe this is going to be an enormous bubble and maybe it'll be an enormous waste of time.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Who knows, maybe it'll also be the best spend ever.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Who are we to judge?
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: But we know the party is happening.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't we go and enjoy it?