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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 15 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am
0:19
Speaker 1: Lie from my Tommy John home studio, which is actually
0:24
Speaker 1: my studio in a hotel in Philadelphia. I'm joined as
0:28
Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, MIKEA and Padre
0:31
Speaker 1: and my bff professional Better Simon Hunter and O Simon Chad.
0:36
Speaker 2: Welcome to the birthplace of freedom, Philadelphia.
0:40
Speaker 1: I'm feeling very free. It is a beautiful, beautiful day
0:45
Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. Always worry when you're doing these live events,
0:48
Speaker 1: and we have our live event at the Wicked Wolf
0:51
Speaker 1: and Center City in Simon's hometown. You always worry, like
0:55
Speaker 1: isn't going to be raining and does that keep people
0:58
Speaker 1: from getting to the polls or in the case to
1:00
Speaker 1: the Wicked Wolf. We are going to gather with friends.
1:03
Speaker 1: We're gonna do a live show. We're going to watch
1:05
Speaker 1: the Niners cover the two and a half against the Rams.
1:07
Speaker 1: That number is already up to three. We're gonna bet
1:10
Speaker 1: and sweat some special bet three six ' five boosts
1:15
Speaker 1: with all of our fans. By the way, even if
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Speaker 1: you're not there, you will be able to play the
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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five boosts along with us. More on
1:24
Speaker 1: that in a minute. Today is our NFL Week fifteen
1:28
Speaker 1: Best Bets Episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our
1:31
Speaker 1: five our five favorite picks to put into the Favorites
1:37
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented
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Speaker 1: by Bet three six y five sign Up now Favorites
1:45
Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot Com. We'll get into the Foxhoil. We'll
1:48
Speaker 1: give out our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week.
1:52
Speaker 1: We're gonna discuss Simon's the biggest bets. We'll get to
1:54
Speaker 1: our boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin,
2:00
Speaker 1: and so much more. Bets are rolling in, lines are moving.
2:04
Speaker 1: It has been a weird week with lines going up
2:07
Speaker 1: and down, and up and down and up and down,
2:08
Speaker 1: some crossing key numbers. Decisions need to be made. As
2:12
Speaker 1: our volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhurt likes to say there's
2:16
Speaker 1: a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the
2:19
Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and
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Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
3:02
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, it's Thursday, as always Thursdays during
3:06
Speaker 1: the season. We'd like to hear how the wise guys
3:09
Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are.
3:14
Speaker 1: The lines move based on our conversations, and the pros
3:19
Speaker 1: feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's
3:24
Speaker 1: do sharp calls.
3:28
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.
3:32
Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what.
3:36
Speaker 3: You do man?
3:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, started a Thursday game. We've seen this number move right.
3:41
Speaker 2: We both liked forty nine ers at two and a half.
3:43
Speaker 2: Now most books are showing three. It's still taking at three,
3:46
Speaker 2: but obviously you want the best of the number, so
3:48
Speaker 2: shop right if you find it two and a half,
3:49
Speaker 2: because that is the professional Sorry, now I don't know
3:51
Speaker 2: may to any pros taking it at minus three. I
3:54
Speaker 2: know plenty that are hammering this two and a half. Beside,
3:57
Speaker 2: we're not on a lot of pros I've talked to.
3:58
Speaker 2: They like Miami. Maybe it's a game you want to discuss.
4:01
Speaker 2: We can just keep it moving. But I think they
4:03
Speaker 2: view it of this Houston teams. I was still a
4:04
Speaker 2: little overrated that Miami is not as bad as we perceive.
4:07
Speaker 2: It's a nice spot to back this Miami team, I
4:09
Speaker 2: guess in their perspective. So that's one that wasn't really
4:12
Speaker 2: onder my radar. I was shocked here so many guys
4:14
Speaker 2: like that. Side another game maybe will end up as
4:17
Speaker 2: our one of our five. A lot of the pros
4:19
Speaker 2: love this Jags and I were just like we did
4:21
Speaker 2: a three and a half, and it really is all
4:22
Speaker 2: about this Jets team getting too much respect. And I
4:25
Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be a lot of professionals on
4:27
Speaker 2: the Jets once again, but it seems like it was
4:29
Speaker 2: just like a small group playing the number at two
4:32
Speaker 2: and a half three on that Jets side, and most
4:34
Speaker 2: pros aligned with our view of it, taking the Jags
4:36
Speaker 2: of three and a half. It's just really about two
4:38
Speaker 2: bad teams and one of them is getting over a
4:40
Speaker 2: field goal that just to me feels pretty easy to
4:42
Speaker 2: take that bad side a game that you know, we've
4:47
Speaker 2: talked a lot about. I know that we like Pittsburgh.
4:50
Speaker 2: Every probably've talked to you Chat is on this Eagles team.
4:52
Speaker 2: So that's one maybe to dive into. Yeah, it's it's
4:55
Speaker 2: a really shaped up to be a pros versus Joe's
4:58
Speaker 2: kind of game. And see there's a couple of pros
5:00
Speaker 2: out there that they've taken the Pittsburgh side. But yeah,
5:04
Speaker 2: right now, Chat, it looks like we are the Joe
5:06
Speaker 2: public side in that Pittsburgh Eagles game. Another one we
5:09
Speaker 2: love that. You know, we've kind of lose hesitant, I
5:12
Speaker 2: guess on Tuesday, But the more I've looked into it,
5:15
Speaker 2: it feels like it's a good spot. This Colts number.
5:18
Speaker 2: We've seen it come down to four and a half.
5:19
Speaker 2: Some books now are three and a half. That's one
5:23
Speaker 2: we'll definitely have to dive into track because I love
5:24
Speaker 2: the professionals, love the Colts Tampa. I really love this side.
5:29
Speaker 2: It's more split that I thought it was gonna be.
5:31
Speaker 2: There's some professionals that really like the Chargers. Once again,
5:34
Speaker 2: it's all about the number. I know some pros I've
5:36
Speaker 2: taken the charge at two and a half, but people
5:38
Speaker 2: like me have bet heavier on the other side of
5:40
Speaker 2: Tampa plus three. So that's that's been a really interesting
5:43
Speaker 2: back and forth. I'm actually on the wrong side of
5:45
Speaker 2: this one, apparently. I like Green Bay minus two and
5:48
Speaker 2: a half. Talked a lot of pros who like the Seahawks.
5:51
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm dugging. They're dug in. They believe
5:54
Speaker 2: in the Seahawks defense, and I believe in just that
5:57
Speaker 2: the Green Bay is just one of the better teams
5:59
Speaker 2: running the NFC. Play against a Seahawks team that feels
6:02
Speaker 2: like they've caught teams in the right moments and they're
6:04
Speaker 2: kind of been punching above their weight that they're a
6:06
Speaker 2: little overrated, overinflated right now. So I'm excited to hear
6:09
Speaker 2: your opinion on that now that we sit here on Thursday,
6:11
Speaker 2: and the last one, me and Chad we talked about Detroit.
6:15
Speaker 2: It was minus one and a half on the show.
6:18
Speaker 2: We humbly try not to say it's just because they'll
6:20
Speaker 2: show this number move, but we saw it happen in
6:23
Speaker 2: real time. We gave it out and all of a
6:24
Speaker 2: sudden it was two and a half by the time
6:26
Speaker 2: we were closing the show, So not that shocking the public,
6:30
Speaker 2: and a couple of professionals have lined up on the
6:31
Speaker 2: bill side when it gets to two and a half
6:33
Speaker 2: and f three. I know plenty of pros that love
6:36
Speaker 2: this Lions team, especially when it touches too. So yeah,
6:39
Speaker 2: there's other games we haven't touched on just because the
6:41
Speaker 2: number of lines moved so much, but those are the
6:43
Speaker 2: ones that really jumped out and me a lot of
6:44
Speaker 2: noise between those that obviously the most talked about games
6:48
Speaker 2: right now, especially you know, I was with five professionals
6:50
Speaker 2: last night. Everyone had a really strong opinion either on
6:53
Speaker 2: the Eagles game. We're on this line's bills game. So yeah,
6:57
Speaker 2: really fun week breaking these all down.
6:59
Speaker 1: Oh that's awesome. I'm so glad to hear it. The
7:01
Speaker 1: one quibble I have with you is I feel like
7:05
Speaker 1: we talked a lot about Miami. I was like I
7:08
Speaker 1: wanted to like Houston, and the more I dug into it,
7:11
Speaker 1: the more I liked Miami. I have it on our
7:14
Speaker 1: list to discuss today, so we're definitely gonna get into
7:19
Speaker 1: that one. Don't don't forget, folks, if you're listening to
7:24
Speaker 1: this live. Tonight is our free favorite podcast watch party
7:30
Speaker 1: at Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philly. I'm in Philly already.
7:35
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is in Philly already. Simon, of course, is
7:38
Speaker 1: just outside Philly and on his way in later today
7:42
Speaker 1: seven pm. I'm gonna watch the Thursday night football game
7:46
Speaker 1: between the Rams and the Niners. If you're watching live
7:49
Speaker 1: and you're in the area, come on by. There's time
7:51
Speaker 1: to RSVP. You got RSVP if you're listening to the
7:53
Speaker 1: podcast version. We had a blast. It was so much fun.
7:57
Speaker 1: All right, let's get rolling Dallas, Carolina, Carolina. Look, Carolina
8:02
Speaker 1: is at two and a half right now at bet
8:04
Speaker 1: three sixty five. It's at three at a lot of places.
8:07
Speaker 1: So this was on the list as if we have to,
8:11
Speaker 1: we're gonna bet it. I pulled the trigger. I bet
8:15
Speaker 1: the Panthers at two and a half. It's kind of
8:19
Speaker 1: remarkable to say this, Simon, Do we think the value
8:23
Speaker 1: is lost on the Panther right now as favorites, Like
8:28
Speaker 1: is it just gone?
8:30
Speaker 2: Yeah? And this is a game that feels like the
8:32
Speaker 2: professionals better earlier in the week and then they're not
8:34
Speaker 2: so much betting at this point. Right when Carolina was
8:37
Speaker 2: a dog or they opened up minus one, that's when
8:39
Speaker 2: we saw a lot of the money coming. Like last night,
8:41
Speaker 2: a lot of the guys I was talking to, they're
8:42
Speaker 2: just not interested in it just because of all the
8:44
Speaker 2: line movement, and it's it's getting to the point, like
8:46
Speaker 2: we talked about where I might have to bet the
8:49
Speaker 2: Cowboys because like you just said, the line might move
8:52
Speaker 2: too much, and eventually if it does stay at three
8:55
Speaker 2: and gets up to three and a half, that's where
8:57
Speaker 2: the value would be. But at two and a half, Tat,
8:58
Speaker 2: I can't fault you for taking the pack Anthers like
9:00
Speaker 2: this feels like it should be three. Want to be
9:04
Speaker 2: shocked in the lands right on three. I mean, these
9:06
Speaker 2: are just two bad teams, right and one team is
9:09
Speaker 2: really banged up in the Cowboys. On the flip side,
9:12
Speaker 2: we've seen this Panthers team be a totally different team
9:15
Speaker 2: since their bye week, and they've really turned things around.
9:17
Speaker 2: And like you said, eventually the luck of all the
9:23
Speaker 2: you know, Bryce Young thrown off his back foot, perfect
9:26
Speaker 2: dimes drop into the corner. It is gonna run out
9:29
Speaker 2: like it's just he's been playing so above his head.
9:32
Speaker 2: Right now that everyone's turned right, everyone I talk to
9:34
Speaker 2: now is back in on Bryce Shung this Panthers team.
9:37
Speaker 2: So you're right for feeling like it might be the
9:40
Speaker 2: time to jump off. I just view it as I
9:42
Speaker 2: don't know, it feels like there's still valuing this Panthers team,
9:44
Speaker 2: just because I do view them as the better team
9:47
Speaker 2: and they are at home against the Cowboys team that
9:48
Speaker 2: we've seen has struggled on the road. So yeah, it's
9:52
Speaker 2: it's a tricky number chat because it's it has moved
9:55
Speaker 2: so much. So it's just when I've just avoided altogether.
9:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think we'll get into the contest because
10:00
Speaker 1: I think in the contest it'll be at two and
10:01
Speaker 1: a half. Like you and I, we both like to
10:03
Speaker 1: not look at the numbers until after the Thursday show,
10:06
Speaker 1: just so we're not cheating a little bit in the contest.
10:09
Speaker 1: We like to do it at the end of this program,
10:12
Speaker 1: so I haven't seen the way it's been sitting at
10:15
Speaker 1: two and a half all week. At bet three six five,
10:17
Speaker 1: the Panthers will be at two and a half in
10:19
Speaker 1: the contest, so we'll have to see. Like with the
10:22
Speaker 1: rest of the games we're talking about, I felt pretty
10:24
Speaker 1: confident about five we could get to without the Panthers,
10:27
Speaker 1: but after hearing sharp calls, I wonder if we're going
10:29
Speaker 1: to be able to do that. So right now it's
10:33
Speaker 1: on the outside looking in. I would say there are
10:38
Speaker 1: probably three games that are waffling between that two and
10:42
Speaker 1: a half and three this week that we're going to
10:45
Speaker 1: talk about. This is one of them that if it's
10:47
Speaker 1: a two and a half, we like one side, if
10:49
Speaker 1: it's a three, we like the other. So I'm excited
10:52
Speaker 1: to dig into those as well. Cleveland at Kansas City
10:56
Speaker 1: Cleveland right now at bet three sixty five is plus five.
11:01
Speaker 1: There are a smattering of four and a half's out there.
11:04
Speaker 1: Don't forget this was at six and a half on
11:07
Speaker 1: Sunday night when we first flagged it. I went back,
11:13
Speaker 1: I listened, I looked at our notes from Tuesday. I
11:17
Speaker 1: think we were being cowardly hoping we could avoid this game.
11:23
Speaker 1: I actually put in my notes we both said we
11:25
Speaker 1: wanted to avoid this game given how snake bit we
11:29
Speaker 1: were last week when we had the Browns and we
11:33
Speaker 1: had the Chiefs and neither went our way. But how
11:39
Speaker 1: are we like not ignoring the teams here and just
11:42
Speaker 1: playing the number. If you look back at that Browns
11:45
Speaker 1: game and Nick Giffin, doctor Nick with the luck rankings,
11:50
Speaker 1: had a analysis of the Browns in that Steelers game
11:57
Speaker 1: and showed how it's beyond and like bad luck, what
12:02
Speaker 1: happened in that game, and how they should have covered.
12:05
Speaker 1: I feel like we have to be taking the Browns here.
12:08
Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't voulch for that. I mean, we did
12:10
Speaker 2: talk about it. If it's pretty simple, and at this point,
12:12
Speaker 2: if it's above three right against my home, yeah you
12:15
Speaker 2: should just fade them. But that's just my issue here, chat.
12:19
Speaker 2: It's just too easy. And I guess that's just me
12:21
Speaker 2: something that's done this a long time that usually when
12:24
Speaker 2: it's too easy, it's not as is perceived, and we
12:28
Speaker 2: can have all the unlucky stats in the world, it
12:31
Speaker 2: doesn't account for jamis like that's the issue with that metric.
12:35
Speaker 2: It's like, were they unlucky against Denver or is that
12:38
Speaker 2: just the full James experience, like him throwing that pick
12:41
Speaker 2: once again after drove the field and we're on the
12:43
Speaker 2: four four yard line, and like last week he talked
12:46
Speaker 2: about that turner rehad kind of killed the game right
12:49
Speaker 2: the pick to the defensive lineman. So that's my hesitation
12:54
Speaker 2: here is just there's other dogs. I feel like I
12:56
Speaker 2: have a better read on that can be more consistent,
12:58
Speaker 2: and I trust the number more. Then we play this
13:01
Speaker 2: number and neither of us to be shipped. Would be
13:04
Speaker 2: surprised if the Chiefs defense just completely dominate to destroys
13:08
Speaker 2: this Browns offense. The reason I want to join you
13:11
Speaker 2: on the Browns just because of what we talked about.
13:13
Speaker 2: That D line against the Chiefs offensive line, that should
13:16
Speaker 2: be a huge matchup for that Browns team. Like Miles Garrett,
13:21
Speaker 2: even with all of his injuries, should be able to
13:22
Speaker 2: get to the quarterback just about any time he won,
13:24
Speaker 2: especially if they're doing what Andy Reid's been doing, which
13:27
Speaker 2: is not leaving tight ends in the block, Like even
13:30
Speaker 2: last week, they knew that guy was struggling that tackle,
13:33
Speaker 2: and it's like Andy Reid wasn't leaving anyone in the chip.
13:35
Speaker 2: He doesn't have the running back chip on that side either.
13:37
Speaker 2: It was like they're trying to run their same old
13:40
Speaker 2: offense where they just can't. Like it just is not
13:42
Speaker 2: the same offense as they've been a run before. So
13:45
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Chad. It's like, if we had to
13:47
Speaker 2: for Saint Cleveland, I could get behind it. It's just
13:49
Speaker 2: it makes me uneasy because of the Winston effect. It's
13:51
Speaker 2: just been as fun as it's been bettering on him.
13:54
Speaker 2: It's been obviously a terrible experience these last couple of weeks.
13:58
Speaker 1: Well, look we got we got to win for all
14:01
Speaker 1: the Jamis reasons. Throw in two pick sixes and by
14:05
Speaker 1: the way, the pick at the end of the game,
14:07
Speaker 1: which would have allowed him to get into the back door.
14:10
Speaker 1: And then we lost with Jamis when there was a
14:15
Speaker 1: turnover by Jamis with three minutes you know, a little
14:19
Speaker 1: more than four minutes left in the game before the
14:21
Speaker 1: Canarius Tony fumble on the punt where they were driving
14:25
Speaker 1: on the Steelers thirty five yard line and they were
14:27
Speaker 1: down twenty seven to fourteen, and Jamis turnover. Here's what
14:32
Speaker 1: I would say. Number One Your point about the offensive
14:35
Speaker 1: line for the Chiefs is massive. They did a terrible
14:39
Speaker 1: job defending against the Chargers defensive line, and the Chargers
14:44
Speaker 1: defensive line is not even close to as good as
14:47
Speaker 1: the Browns defensive line. Right, the Browns lead the league
14:51
Speaker 1: in pressure rate going against then no line. They cannot
14:55
Speaker 1: protect Patrick Mahomes for an extended period. We've seen it
14:58
Speaker 1: week after week after a week. Whether it's Wanya Morris,
15:03
Speaker 1: DJ Humphries, it doesn't matter who's on the edge at
15:07
Speaker 1: left tackle. They have to change their offense. You're right,
15:10
Speaker 1: they're not bringing anyone into Chip instead and Reid is
15:14
Speaker 1: just deciding we're gonna throw the ball in under half
15:17
Speaker 1: a second. Right, it's gonna be two step drop five seconds.
15:21
Speaker 1: We're done, and so or not five seconds like two
15:24
Speaker 1: step drop half a second point five seconds, we're done.
15:27
Speaker 1: Get the ball out. So that's number one. The Chiefs
15:30
Speaker 1: defensive backfield, by the way, literally signing guys off the street.
15:35
Speaker 1: Steven Nelson, who they drafted in twenty fifteen, played a
15:40
Speaker 1: few years with them and retired, was just signed to
15:44
Speaker 1: the Chiefs practice squad because they have no defensive backs.
15:47
Speaker 1: Andy Reid's comment when he was signed. This was great.
15:51
Speaker 1: He was a good player when he was here. He
15:53
Speaker 1: hasn't been there in like five years, So I don't
15:58
Speaker 1: think the Chiefs can cover an anybody. And if they
16:01
Speaker 1: can't cover anybody, then Spagnola can't blitz the way he
16:04
Speaker 1: likes to blitz because he doesn't have any help in
16:07
Speaker 1: the back end of the defense. So I know it's
16:10
Speaker 1: all it doesn't matter, it's all up to Jamis.
16:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, will he throwed.
16:14
Speaker 1: That stupid pick? But like matchup wise, number wise, it's great,
16:20
Speaker 1: Browns are decided right, But you're right, we're betting on Jay.
16:24
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, it's James. It's Jamis.
16:26
Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? So Miami at Houston? Like
16:30
Speaker 1: we discussed it on Tuesday for a while. So like.
16:34
Speaker 2: Because me personally, it's not all about you, Chav. I
16:38
Speaker 2: was just talking to me personally, not having a read
16:40
Speaker 2: on it.
16:41
Speaker 1: Wait, what do you mean are you're acting like.
16:44
Speaker 2: I like dismissed that we never talked about it. I
16:46
Speaker 2: was just more of the viewpoint of I just don't
16:47
Speaker 2: have a read on it, Like I wanted to be
16:48
Speaker 2: on Houston, But it seems like most professional I've talked to,
16:51
Speaker 2: they like Miami. So it's just it's one of those
16:54
Speaker 2: times I can avoid. I would avoid.
16:56
Speaker 1: I'm like a professional, and I wanted to be on
16:58
Speaker 1: Houston too, and then I did my research and realize,
17:00
Speaker 1: oh my god, I might have to be on Miami.
17:03
Speaker 1: That's what I do. Simon, what a missing?
17:05
Speaker 2: What's your research saying about Miami?
17:06
Speaker 1: My research about Miami is saying that they're actually better
17:10
Speaker 1: in the red zone than we think offensively, they're better
17:13
Speaker 1: defensively in the red zone than we think, and that
17:15
Speaker 1: this is probably a pretty good matchup for them if
17:18
Speaker 1: the number is at three. At two and a half,
17:21
Speaker 1: we probably like the Texans at three, I lean Dolphins.
17:25
Speaker 1: I have not bet it. I don't want to put
17:27
Speaker 1: it in the contest. I was really thinking this would
17:31
Speaker 1: auto This was going to be an auto play for
17:33
Speaker 1: me on the Texans coming off of by as healthy
17:36
Speaker 1: as they've been all season. But I still can't get
17:38
Speaker 1: there because I think the Dolphins are better than we think.
17:44
Speaker 2: All right, I agree, then I would take Miami, but
17:47
Speaker 2: obviously we're never going to get the number we won.
17:48
Speaker 2: If it was three and a half in contest, I
17:50
Speaker 2: would love it. It's going to be two and a half.
17:51
Speaker 2: All the books are showing it's in between two and
17:53
Speaker 2: a half and three. So yeah, it looks like it's
17:56
Speaker 2: a game.
17:56
Speaker 1: We'll just avoid zero edge at three. That's what I
18:00
Speaker 1: I wrote in my notes. Dude, we're heading into a
18:04
Speaker 1: live event and you and I right now we're mind melding.
18:07
Speaker 1: That's what's happening Cincinnati at Tennessee. I left this on
18:14
Speaker 1: We don't have to get into it. I really only
18:16
Speaker 1: left it on the list because I want to see
18:18
Speaker 1: if there were any sharp calls about it. Because we
18:20
Speaker 1: talked about Tennessee being the right side. The number feels
18:24
Speaker 1: a little bit too high. Cincinnati's basically a one dimensional
18:29
Speaker 1: team right now. The problem is the Titans might not
18:31
Speaker 1: have any dimensions. So I just like we can skip it.
18:36
Speaker 1: We're not going to put in the contest. I only
18:38
Speaker 1: want to talk about it if there was significant sharp
18:42
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Titans. Are you hearing anything?
18:45
Speaker 1: Has anything happened in your research the past forty eight
18:48
Speaker 1: hours to put you on the Titans?
18:51
Speaker 3: Uh?
18:51
Speaker 2: I mean we talked like we're being the Titans just
18:54
Speaker 2: because of the number, and it's a nice spot to
18:56
Speaker 2: back the book like this is a game. The books
18:59
Speaker 2: are going to need and you know, obviously hasn't worked
19:02
Speaker 2: out totally this year, but historically that's the exact why
19:06
Speaker 2: you want to be on and from my view of
19:09
Speaker 2: like the professionals, I like this side. It's really about
19:12
Speaker 2: something we've talked about just that, oh why and with
19:14
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow and the fact that you know, the strength
19:17
Speaker 2: of Tennessee is up the middle, so that means he'll
19:19
Speaker 2: be having pressure right in his lap, which we've seen
19:22
Speaker 2: him struggle with right and obviously this season he's putting
19:26
Speaker 2: on one of the best performance he's ever seen by
19:28
Speaker 2: a quarterbacks. So they've navigated all that pressure not just
19:31
Speaker 2: from the side up the middle, and he's found made
19:33
Speaker 2: a way to make it work. But you know, like
19:36
Speaker 2: we talked about, we want to take it just because
19:38
Speaker 2: of this number. And it feels like Cincinnati got away
19:41
Speaker 2: with one last week, right like that was an incredibly
19:44
Speaker 2: lucky When we've been we've been behind those lucky covers,
19:46
Speaker 2: that was an incredibly lucky cover by that Cincinnati team.
19:50
Speaker 2: So it just feels like my most pros view, we'd
19:53
Speaker 2: viewed the same way. It's an overinflated line should be
19:56
Speaker 2: three three and a half you're getting five. Good luck
19:59
Speaker 2: if you're back and well, it's just it's a tough
20:01
Speaker 2: spot and tough number to be in.
20:03
Speaker 1: Well, back in will Levis at five actually feels scarier
20:08
Speaker 1: than back in Jamis four and a half because at
20:11
Speaker 1: least Jamis, we know, can get the ball down the
20:12
Speaker 1: field and he will be able to find open receivers
20:16
Speaker 1: and score touchdowns. I don't know if Will Levis can
20:19
Speaker 1: do that.
20:20
Speaker 2: Now we're down ten with Jamis, I have some confidence
20:23
Speaker 2: and one down ten with will Levis. No, okay, yeah,
20:26
Speaker 2: it's exactly, it's over.
20:27
Speaker 1: It's a dead bet. Ye dead bet. So I didn't
20:30
Speaker 1: put this in the in the script, but you mentioned
20:36
Speaker 1: in order this would be where it is. You mentioned
20:38
Speaker 1: the Jags at plus three and a half. Yeah, you know,
20:42
Speaker 1: I'm surprised there's that much activity from professional betters on
20:45
Speaker 1: the Jags at three and a half. Like there's, like
20:48
Speaker 1: we said on Tuesday, lame duck coach versus an interim coach,
20:54
Speaker 1: a backup quarterback who's not very good coming off asters win,
21:01
Speaker 1: and over the hill quarterback who's not as good as
21:03
Speaker 1: he used to be coming off a preposterous loss. I
21:08
Speaker 1: guess the hook is what hooked people.
21:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm also just a believer in that this
21:16
Speaker 2: team has been the Jaguars again. It's all when you
21:21
Speaker 2: get to this time of year, you're looking for a
21:22
Speaker 2: bunch of the stuff. But I really do like to
21:24
Speaker 2: focus on home and away splits. They're just some teams
21:26
Speaker 2: that perform well at home and some that do not.
21:28
Speaker 2: And we've seen this season this Jaguars team, whether it's
21:33
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence or so far Mac Jones, they have played
21:37
Speaker 2: better when they're at home. And you know, earlier in
21:40
Speaker 2: the year, they played green Bay. That was a game
21:42
Speaker 2: I famously made us bet Chad was cating me for
21:45
Speaker 2: because Green Bay was out playing Jacksonville all the way
21:48
Speaker 2: to the very end. I got really lucky the running
21:50
Speaker 2: back laid down at the one yard line. Green Bay
21:53
Speaker 2: wins thirty to twenty seven. We cover that three and
21:55
Speaker 2: a half. Minnesota went down at Jacksonville, right, that was
22:00
Speaker 2: one of the ugest, hoppiest games you've ever seen. Jacks
22:03
Speaker 2: covered that game. They lost twelve to seven, like another
22:06
Speaker 2: weird game that they somehow covered. Then they obviously got
22:08
Speaker 2: rolled at Detroit. We all remember. But then they went
22:11
Speaker 2: on their bye week and we've seen that since their
22:13
Speaker 2: bye week. They played Houston at home. They lost twenty
22:16
Speaker 2: three to twenty a nice. Once again, me and Chow
22:19
Speaker 2: we all on that number. We covered the back door
22:21
Speaker 2: the three and a half, and then last week, like
22:23
Speaker 2: we already talked about, they were down six nothing head
22:26
Speaker 2: into the fourth quarter, the kick a field goal, end
22:29
Speaker 2: up getting a touchdown. They win ten to six with
22:31
Speaker 2: mac Jones. So it's it's a team that, as much
22:34
Speaker 2: as you want to say it's a lame duck coach
22:36
Speaker 2: and that it's a team that's given up, they're clearly
22:38
Speaker 2: still playing hard and putting it all together. And it's
22:41
Speaker 2: clearly a team that the market is still not valued,
22:43
Speaker 2: right right. I mean it's back to back weeks now,
22:45
Speaker 2: they've been three and a half, and to me, that's
22:49
Speaker 2: my view of it. Of it feels like once again
22:51
Speaker 2: the Jets are being a little overvalued. I get it.
22:54
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers did look better last week, but like we
22:57
Speaker 2: talked about, he's been incredibly inconsistent and maybe they did
23:01
Speaker 2: find something. Chat I'm about to get burned here by
23:02
Speaker 2: backing this Jaguars team, but to me, it just feels
23:05
Speaker 2: like I'm playing the number where It's like, why would
23:09
Speaker 2: the Jags not win this game out right? Why is
23:11
Speaker 2: this not closer to a pick? These are very evenly
23:13
Speaker 2: matched teams, especially when you add in the mix that
23:16
Speaker 2: you know MATC. Jones. We've seen it now back to
23:20
Speaker 2: back weeks. He finds something lay in the games and
23:22
Speaker 2: he can turn it on. This is a Jets defense
23:25
Speaker 2: that can be passed on, like it's not this Juggernaut
23:27
Speaker 2: get good stops kind of defense. So that's just my
23:30
Speaker 2: view of a chat. It's really about playing the numbering
23:32
Speaker 2: just that it feels like, once again, this Jets team's
23:34
Speaker 2: over valid, especially the fact that they're coming off a cover.
23:37
Speaker 2: Were a lot of better. So we've just seen it,
23:38
Speaker 2: especially in the Action app. All the money, all the
23:41
Speaker 2: tickets right now feels are on the Jets, and a
23:43
Speaker 2: couple of books have moved it from three and a
23:45
Speaker 2: half down to three just to protect against a lot
23:48
Speaker 2: of professional money coming on the Jaguar side.
23:51
Speaker 1: All right, So I'm leaving it on the list right now.
23:53
Speaker 1: Our list of five includes Cleveland at four and a
23:57
Speaker 1: half and the Jags at three and a half. We're
24:00
Speaker 1: going to get to a streak of games where it's
24:01
Speaker 1: gonna be the ones that we really feel strongly about.
24:05
Speaker 1: But as usual, we're starting off scary. Speaking of scary,
24:10
Speaker 1: I'm just saying this game. We have no intention of
24:13
Speaker 1: putting it in the contest, but the New York Giants
24:15
Speaker 1: are now sixteen and a half point home underdogs against
24:20
Speaker 1: the Ravens. I just put this one on the list
24:23
Speaker 1: because the number has gotten so outrageous. This has to
24:28
Speaker 1: be a wise guy play at this number. There's like
24:33
Speaker 1: the last two examples of a sixteen from Evan, The
24:36
Speaker 1: last two examples of a sixteen plus point dog have
24:41
Speaker 1: all been the Giants, once in twenty twenty three at
24:45
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, once in twenty twenty two at the Eagles.
24:48
Speaker 1: Sixteen plus point dogs fourteen to twelve against the spread
24:54
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen, so you know, it's plus money a
24:59
Speaker 1: little bit. The last time there was a plus sixteen
25:03
Speaker 1: point dog at home, we mentioned this on Tuesday Jags
25:06
Speaker 1: versus the Bills in twenty two. The Jags won nine six.
25:10
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell remembers it well, he did not get to
25:12
Speaker 1: eat wings with surgical gloves that day. But since nineteen
25:20
Speaker 1: ninety it's happened eleven times. Sixteen plus point dogs are
25:27
Speaker 1: only five and six against spread, So now Tommy DeVito
25:31
Speaker 1: is a quarterback, it doesn't feel like an auto play anymore.
25:38
Speaker 1: But tell me if I'm wrong.
25:40
Speaker 2: No, I think your view of it is correct. The
25:42
Speaker 2: since that the Ravens secondary makes it that you want
25:45
Speaker 2: to bet this number because they have been backdoored and
25:49
Speaker 2: they are struggling against the past, and I totally get
25:53
Speaker 2: you're coming from. It's it's tempting. That's why they made
25:56
Speaker 2: this number so big. That's that's what they're doing here.
25:58
Speaker 2: They're trying to suck o us in. So I'm doing
26:01
Speaker 2: my best not to bet it because I'm trying to
26:03
Speaker 2: be patient. Hope this gets the seventeen, because you're right
26:06
Speaker 2: right now it's at sixteen six and a half, which
26:08
Speaker 2: is like, might as well be a dead number. It's
26:11
Speaker 2: the mathematical odds of it landing on sixteen are so small.
26:13
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's I get where you're coming from. Maybe
26:17
Speaker 2: we'll be kicking ourselves when it's they're down eight, driving
26:20
Speaker 2: with the ball at the end of the fourth quarter
26:22
Speaker 2: against the Ravens and it's like, how do we not
26:23
Speaker 2: take this? There was no doubt they were going to
26:25
Speaker 2: somehow cover this huge number. It just moves too much
26:28
Speaker 2: at this point. But yeah, as you sit here right now,
26:30
Speaker 2: I don't. I haven't taken a position on it. I
26:33
Speaker 2: got a real fill for it. I know some pros
26:35
Speaker 2: who have bet and it's just it's the exact same
26:37
Speaker 2: view of chat of just this number is too big
26:39
Speaker 2: for a team that isn't a top three, top four
26:43
Speaker 2: team right now in the NFL, in this Ravens team,
26:45
Speaker 2: like they're just not the team of the past. So
26:48
Speaker 2: I totally get your perspective.
26:49
Speaker 1: You also just wonder is there a little bit of pride?
26:52
Speaker 1: We know the players know the spreads. We know that
26:56
Speaker 1: the Giants are looking at this thinking we're nearly seventeen
27:01
Speaker 1: point underdogs at home, as bad as Tommy DeVito is,
27:06
Speaker 1: as much as that defensive line might struggle without the
27:12
Speaker 1: best player in the middle of the line. Like, that's
27:17
Speaker 1: a huge, huge number. Bookmakers have always told me, like
27:22
Speaker 1: you basically two x the NFL spread to get to
27:27
Speaker 1: what it would be in college. If so, if this
27:30
Speaker 1: was a college number, it would be thirty four, right,
27:34
Speaker 1: that would be what the spread is. That's a massive
27:37
Speaker 1: that's a Alabama versus you know, Eastern Carolina State University
27:44
Speaker 1: of Technology. Number these are NFL players still like that,
27:50
Speaker 1: just it defies logic to me. If we get it
27:53
Speaker 1: at seventeen, we're not gonna get in the contest. But
27:55
Speaker 1: if it gets to seventeen, I'm gonna be looking for
27:57
Speaker 1: this to put a little bit of piece of action
27:59
Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. That's That's what I'll be doing, Sir,
28:04
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Simon. I feel like this is going
28:06
Speaker 1: to have to be our foxhole. H Well, look, you
28:09
Speaker 1: and I were waffling about this one on Tuesday. It's
28:12
Speaker 1: come down from five and a half to five, and
28:14
Speaker 1: like I know, it's a tricky one. I know the
28:17
Speaker 1: reasons why we hesitated a little bit, like with the
28:20
Speaker 1: Panthers last week, are because of the Eagles defensive line
28:25
Speaker 1: and their elite rushing game and their secondary is very good.
28:30
Speaker 1: But I think there's real And you came at me
28:35
Speaker 1: a little bit and try to tell me that Jalen
28:37
Speaker 1: Hurts is similar to Josh Allen. But there's real issues
28:40
Speaker 1: with this Eagles passing game. They are running the ball
28:46
Speaker 1: more than they are passing the ball, which is well,
28:50
Speaker 1: why are you laughing at that?
28:52
Speaker 2: Because I don't know why that's an issue and you
28:54
Speaker 2: have Sae Kwon Barkley and it's not it's.
28:57
Speaker 1: Not an issue. But if you can't pass the ball
29:00
Speaker 1: and it's hard to win against good defenses.
29:04
Speaker 2: You know what the definition of say what do you
29:08
Speaker 2: know what the definition of cant is what? I don't know.
29:12
Speaker 2: You're definitely using it wrong. Though you just said they
29:14
Speaker 2: can't throw the ball.
29:15
Speaker 1: They can't not as well, they can't throw the ball.
29:20
Speaker 2: I just think the hate's gone too far.
29:22
Speaker 1: Don't try to get English on me.
29:23
Speaker 2: Well, it's just what are you talking about. You're just
29:25
Speaker 2: you're a crazy person. It's yeah, they can throw the
29:28
Speaker 2: ball if they need to. They're just a run first
29:30
Speaker 2: team right now. I just you saw, like the fans
29:33
Speaker 2: in Philadelphia, It's like, what do you guys want? You
29:35
Speaker 2: want to throw for four undred yards and lose to
29:36
Speaker 2: the PA right now. I don't get it. I don't
29:39
Speaker 2: get it what people want. So I'm happy AJ was
29:42
Speaker 2: able to laugh at Off. It's just again I was
29:45
Speaker 2: worrying in the sense of, like, yes, no one wants
29:47
Speaker 2: their star receiver in their quarterback hating each other and
29:50
Speaker 2: being and you know, having beef. But it seemed like
29:52
Speaker 2: they both were able to talk about where it's like
29:55
Speaker 2: we both know that, you know, the passing game did
29:58
Speaker 2: struggle last year and that was part of the reason
30:00
Speaker 2: in the class the collapse did happen. I think that's
30:02
Speaker 2: what AG is talking about. It's like that we need
30:04
Speaker 2: to get this on point head into the playoffs because
30:07
Speaker 2: it's we're not gonna just run the ball three times
30:09
Speaker 2: against these you know, really good teams. But I don't know,
30:13
Speaker 2: I have faith in Hurts. It's just like, yeah, you
30:15
Speaker 2: played well. No, but if they come out here and
30:17
Speaker 2: they beat Pittsburgh by two touchdowns and he throws for
30:21
Speaker 2: two fifty and two touchdowns, it's like, are all their
30:24
Speaker 2: problems solved? I don't think so. Like, I don't think
30:26
Speaker 2: this is something they can just correct in a week
30:28
Speaker 2: or two. That's going on with Hurts, right, It's like, yes.
30:31
Speaker 2: The biggest issue again was AJ was open downfield in
30:34
Speaker 2: the first quarter. Hurts clearly missed him on which had
30:37
Speaker 2: been an easy touchdown for AJ, and for the rest
30:40
Speaker 2: of the game. AJ was a little pissy, bitchy mood
30:42
Speaker 2: the rest of the game because of that one play,
30:44
Speaker 2: and then obviously got interviewed after the game immediately said
30:47
Speaker 2: something you shouldn't have said, Sam, go over to Brander Graham.
30:50
Speaker 2: So the professionals I talked to, while they like the
30:53
Speaker 2: Eagles series, they just think this line should be closer
30:56
Speaker 2: to six and a half seven because of that Panthers game.
30:59
Speaker 2: You're getting it five five and a half lower number
31:01
Speaker 2: on this Eagles game. And I just I have a
31:04
Speaker 2: hard time making the number that big. Like we already
31:06
Speaker 2: talked about chat, I just think Pittsburgh is underrated here.
31:10
Speaker 2: The number feels too big. I'll be a sucker with you.
31:13
Speaker 2: I'll buy this Pittsburgh one and just I'll ride the
31:15
Speaker 2: Tomlin spot. But it's like every pro I know they
31:19
Speaker 2: like this other side. They like the Eagles side just
31:21
Speaker 2: because they like this matchup for them. And obviously we
31:24
Speaker 2: don't even talked about Pickings not playing this game is
31:27
Speaker 2: a big deal for Pittsburgh offense. And you know, as
31:32
Speaker 2: much you want to say Cleveland has a good defense,
31:34
Speaker 2: they don't compare this Eagles team. Right, Eagles are in
31:36
Speaker 2: the top three and almost every metric that Cleveland team
31:39
Speaker 2: is not that same defense from the year before. That's
31:41
Speaker 2: why you know Rusk could get away with throwing deep
31:43
Speaker 2: balls to Mike Williams and get away the last week
31:45
Speaker 2: that maybe we're gonna get caught here, Chad, But I'm
31:48
Speaker 2: with you. It feels like we're walking to a trap.
31:49
Speaker 2: But it's like I can't avoid it. My model likes
31:51
Speaker 2: the number. I like the number. I'm happy to go
31:54
Speaker 2: against the professionals with you, it just feels like it's
31:56
Speaker 2: too inflated. This game will come down to a field goal,
31:59
Speaker 2: which once again Pittsburgh has a huge advantage that they
32:02
Speaker 2: have the much better kicker right now in this matchup.
32:04
Speaker 2: So it's tough chat. It feels like I'm missing something here,
32:07
Speaker 2: but I can't help it. It's it's such a big
32:09
Speaker 2: number for this Pittsburgh team.
32:11
Speaker 1: We're in the Foxhil with the Pittsburgh Steelers, all.
32:14
Speaker 2: Right, I'm a Foxhoil God. We're gonna unleash he out
32:16
Speaker 2: here in December because that's what's required.
32:18
Speaker 1: My point with the Eagles is really it unless we
32:22
Speaker 1: believe the Eagles can completely change their game plan to
32:29
Speaker 1: prove to themselves that AJ and Jalen hurts and this
32:33
Speaker 1: passing game is fine, and they're going to stop relying
32:36
Speaker 1: on Saquon Barkley for a game. Don't we have to
32:41
Speaker 1: believe that this will be a run heavy game that
32:44
Speaker 1: gives the Steelers a chance to keep it close.
32:46
Speaker 2: Right.
32:46
Speaker 1: That's that's what I believe more than anything. Whether or
32:49
Speaker 1: not I believe or you believe, or anyone believes in
32:53
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts in the passing game and their ability to
32:55
Speaker 1: throw the ball, that's not who they are. They're a
32:57
Speaker 1: run first team because they have Saquon Barkley and they're
32:59
Speaker 1: off line is amazing, and their defensive line is amazing,
33:03
Speaker 1: and they make it difficult on other teams because of
33:06
Speaker 1: their pressure and because of their defensive backfield. So this
33:11
Speaker 1: should play out as a low scoring game where the
33:15
Speaker 1: clock bleeds and both teams are trying to run the ball,
33:18
Speaker 1: and that would play into the favor of the Steelers
33:21
Speaker 1: covering five or five and a half, which is probably
33:24
Speaker 1: we're probably going to get five and a half in
33:25
Speaker 1: the contest. So we're together on this. We might be
33:29
Speaker 1: coming at it from opposite sides, but we are together
33:32
Speaker 1: on this, and that's really all that matters. Because when
33:34
Speaker 1: you're in a foxhole, you got to believe, and you
33:36
Speaker 1: got to be campadres, and you got to know that
33:38
Speaker 1: it's you against the world. And I think that's how
33:41
Speaker 1: you and I are feeling right now, even if even
33:43
Speaker 1: if this feels tense.
33:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, time of that is just I don't trust the number,
33:48
Speaker 2: and that's what I'm worried about it. There's something I
33:50
Speaker 2: must be missing here because I just will never understand
33:53
Speaker 2: why the books hung this number so high. I'll never
33:56
Speaker 2: make sense why this wasn't three and a half. So
33:58
Speaker 2: makes no sense. It will make sense once on Sunday
34:00
Speaker 2: we lose by a.
34:01
Speaker 1: Touchdown one hundred, and we're going to be disappointed and
34:04
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sit on my couch and I'm going to
34:05
Speaker 1: be like, why did we do this? But at least
34:07
Speaker 1: I'm going to know that you were with it. I
34:09
Speaker 1: didn't like I didn't try to talk you into it,
34:11
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna feel good. No way, no way,
34:16
Speaker 1: you fully came around.
34:18
Speaker 2: This is Chad's bet. I'm definitely putting this on you.
34:20
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are a fucking coward. All right,
34:23
Speaker 1: here we go. You ready, guess what It's time for
34:27
Speaker 1: our big ball Better the We Care presented by Tommy John.
34:34
Speaker 1: If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.
34:37
Speaker 1: Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes
34:40
Speaker 1: the greatest. I'd like a little credit for belting it
34:44
Speaker 1: out in a hotel room and I didn't lose my
34:48
Speaker 1: voice or cough it out. That's it. That's exciting developments there.
34:54
Speaker 1: We're going with the Indianapolis Colts plus four at Denver.
34:58
Speaker 1: From the beginning on Sunday night, we talked about this
35:02
Speaker 1: game and it just kind of without doing any research,
35:05
Speaker 1: the number looked funny. It got up to four and
35:09
Speaker 1: a half. Look, the culture one of those teams that
35:13
Speaker 1: I think we and professional betters have more respect for
35:16
Speaker 1: than the market. I think that's reflected in the line
35:20
Speaker 1: like a couple that with the wind streak that the
35:22
Speaker 1: Broncos have been on, including that wild game against the
35:26
Speaker 1: Browns before they're by that they probably shouldn't have covered
35:28
Speaker 1: at all. I just feel like we have an inflation alert.
35:32
Speaker 1: You've spent the last couple of days thinking about it.
35:35
Speaker 1: You're feeling strongly about it. You've spoken to the wise guys,
35:39
Speaker 1: they're feeling strongly about it. How did you get there?
35:44
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think what you just saw at the top, though,
35:46
Speaker 2: is really about this number. And that's what a lot
35:48
Speaker 2: of guys are debating. Was just isn't this line inflated
35:51
Speaker 2: like this feels like it's bumped up way too high.
35:54
Speaker 2: And yeah, obviously I'm jealous of you. I saw you
35:57
Speaker 2: got a four and a half, and it's like that
35:58
Speaker 2: would have been ideal, that would have been the perfect
36:00
Speaker 2: number for us in the contest. But I'm not gonna
36:03
Speaker 2: let it totally scare us off. If it's three and
36:04
Speaker 2: a half, I could still see us put it in,
36:06
Speaker 2: just because it still feels like it's inflated. And you know,
36:10
Speaker 2: they haven't played a ton of running quarterbacks this season
36:12
Speaker 2: obviously Denver, but we saw that even when I went
36:16
Speaker 2: back and watched that Lamar game, that was a way
36:18
Speaker 2: you can really kind of stifen their front four like that.
36:22
Speaker 2: As good as they've been at rushing the passer and
36:24
Speaker 2: getting to the passer, I've seen a couple of instances
36:27
Speaker 2: they have struggle against mobile quarterbacks. And we've talked about
36:32
Speaker 2: bo Knicks. You know, as great as he's played, we
36:36
Speaker 2: saw last week with the Browns, it's like he's still
36:39
Speaker 2: hitting a little bit of that rookie wall at this
36:42
Speaker 2: point where teams are adjusting and making it more difficult
36:44
Speaker 2: for him, and that we've seen that when it when
36:48
Speaker 2: it is off game script that he has struggled. So yeah,
36:52
Speaker 2: I fully support you in this number. I bet it.
36:55
Speaker 2: I like the Colts here, Like we talked about, the
36:58
Speaker 2: only real fear here is the difference between this team
37:02
Speaker 2: that playing at home and on the road, they've just
37:04
Speaker 2: been a different team. They're obviously way better at home,
37:06
Speaker 2: this cold Steam, and even Anthony richardson his young career.
37:09
Speaker 2: I mean you can go back and look, he is
37:11
Speaker 2: a covering machine at home. He struggled a little bit
37:13
Speaker 2: on the road. Again, maybe that has to do with
37:15
Speaker 2: outdoors all this other stuff that we don't know because
37:18
Speaker 2: he's only played you know, eleven games up to this
37:20
Speaker 2: point of twelve games in the NFL, so that stuff
37:23
Speaker 2: is tough to say. But another game, just like that
37:25
Speaker 2: one we talked about with the Jaguars, it feels like
37:29
Speaker 2: pros versus Joe's another week of the professionals are all
37:32
Speaker 2: hammering one side and the public is very happy thinking
37:34
Speaker 2: they're getting a good number on the other side. So yeah, Chaed,
37:38
Speaker 2: I'm with you and back in the books here and
37:40
Speaker 2: taking this three and a half four with this cold Steam.
37:42
Speaker 1: Also a couple of really interesting injury developments Riley Moss
37:47
Speaker 1: of the Broncos. Yeah, cornerback, the only player in the
37:50
Speaker 1: Broncos not to practice so far this week, so does
37:53
Speaker 1: not look like he'll be playing. Anyone who was watching
37:56
Speaker 1: that Broncos Browns game on Monday night knows that William Vance,
38:01
Speaker 1: the cornerbacker, replaced him. He just got freaking torched by
38:06
Speaker 1: Jamis and Jerry Judy. That was the reason why they
38:09
Speaker 1: stayed in that game. Every single time you looked up,
38:12
Speaker 1: he was giving up a huge, huge play to Judy
38:15
Speaker 1: with including a couple of touchdowns. So that's a big
38:19
Speaker 1: deal for the Broncos in their past defense. Also, Ryan Kelly,
38:22
Speaker 1: the Pro Bowl center for the Colts. He is practicing
38:27
Speaker 1: again this week, coming off injured reserve with an injury
38:30
Speaker 1: that he was limited in practice on Wednesday, But he
38:33
Speaker 1: is in the window where they can activate him if
38:34
Speaker 1: they feel comfortable with it. So that might be something
38:38
Speaker 1: that gives you a little bit more confidence betting on
38:43
Speaker 1: the Colts. Also, Anthony Richardson, you talked about it. He's
38:46
Speaker 1: got a touch of Bryce Young in him in terms
38:48
Speaker 1: of since he's been benched, he's been considerably better. Pro
38:52
Speaker 1: Football Focus has him eighth in their overall passing grades
38:56
Speaker 1: fourth and big time throws since his Week ten returned,
38:59
Speaker 1: so we're on the colts. I think we'll get him
39:01
Speaker 1: at four and a half in the contest, but I
39:03
Speaker 1: also like him at three and a half as you do, Simon.
39:07
Speaker 1: We can hear the bells, we can smell the gingerbread.
39:12
Speaker 1: The holiday season is upon us, and with over twenty
39:16
Speaker 1: million pairs sold and thousands of five star reviews, let's
39:21
Speaker 1: make the Gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition.
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39:43
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39:45
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Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. I wear my Tommy
40:00
Speaker 1: Johns for the Big Live Show tonight, packed him special
40:04
Speaker 1: just for the show. All Right, big game. I thought
40:08
Speaker 1: this was going to end up being a Foxhole game,
40:11
Speaker 1: even though it was already our exec decision. I thought
40:13
Speaker 1: it might be a big balls even though it was
40:15
Speaker 1: our exec decision. Buffalo at Detroit. Detroit's minus two and
40:19
Speaker 1: a half. We loved it. It one and a half and
40:22
Speaker 1: it moved right, and it moved while we were on
40:25
Speaker 1: the show. Now it's at two and a half. Seventy
40:28
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on the bills, so we have
40:31
Speaker 1: a reverse line move here, which means even though the
40:34
Speaker 1: tickets are coming in on the bills, the line has
40:37
Speaker 1: moved in the Lion's direction. It's gone up. I think
40:42
Speaker 1: the lines are the better team. Nothing I've done since
40:44
Speaker 1: Tuesday makes me feel differently. I think they might be
40:47
Speaker 1: as healthy as they've been in weeks. Across the defensive line,
40:49
Speaker 1: they could be getting a lot of players back. They
40:53
Speaker 1: haven't played in ten days. The last thing they did
40:56
Speaker 1: it was at home. They haven't left home since they
40:59
Speaker 1: were on the road at India on November twenty fourth.
41:05
Speaker 1: Where do you feel? How do you feel? What are
41:07
Speaker 1: you thinking?
41:07
Speaker 2: Am I agree? I mean I love the lines. Obviously
41:10
Speaker 2: we wish it was one and a half. If it's
41:12
Speaker 2: two and a half, chat, I could still see us
41:14
Speaker 2: putting this on the contest, just because that was.
41:16
Speaker 1: My question for you, like I would. I'm waffling a
41:19
Speaker 1: little bit at the two and a half. I don't
41:21
Speaker 1: know why, but maybe I'm losing my courage a little
41:23
Speaker 1: bit because the number, because I'm like, I'm hearing whispers
41:27
Speaker 1: about people who like the Bills too.
41:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, me too. And my view with though, is what
41:32
Speaker 2: you just talked about. I just think the Lines, even
41:34
Speaker 2: with all their injuries to the defense, I still think
41:36
Speaker 2: they're the better team overall. I mean, we haven't really
41:38
Speaker 2: talked about just because the Bills. I mean Josh Allen,
41:41
Speaker 2: like I said, he's been Captain America and it hasn't matter.
41:43
Speaker 2: But they have what sixty million in dead cap money,
41:46
Speaker 2: some crazy agreeious number this season because the whole thing
41:48
Speaker 2: that went on with Digs and you know they've overcome
41:51
Speaker 2: that because of him. But they have they overcome in
41:56
Speaker 2: the sense that they're about to beat now one of
41:58
Speaker 2: the best teams in all football in the Lines at home.
42:00
Speaker 2: Like we just talked about it. It's like, I get
42:03
Speaker 2: all the love and respect for this Bills team, that
42:05
Speaker 2: this number has to below three. Like we talked something
42:08
Speaker 2: when this was at three, It's like, okay, and that number,
42:10
Speaker 2: I would take the Bills. But once it's dipped under that,
42:13
Speaker 2: that that to me is why I want to be
42:15
Speaker 2: on this this Lion's team, and our our hesitation here
42:18
Speaker 2: is just that me and Chat. I don't know how
42:20
Speaker 2: many times you've been on the plus two and a
42:21
Speaker 2: half number and it's literally landed on two and we've
42:23
Speaker 2: covered almost every time on that two and a half.
42:25
Speaker 2: So maybe that's the hesitation here. But there's a couple
42:28
Speaker 2: of favorites I like this week at mine two and
42:30
Speaker 2: a half and I'm gonna I'm gonna, I'm gonna ride
42:33
Speaker 2: it with it. I just think matchup wise, this is
42:35
Speaker 2: a good matchup for the Lions team. That Bills team
42:39
Speaker 2: is as good as they are now. Great, Josh Allen
42:41
Speaker 2: is you know this Lion's team I feel about it
42:45
Speaker 2: get stops defensively and on the other side of the ball.
42:47
Speaker 2: I don't know how the Bills will get stops defensively.
42:50
Speaker 2: Like it feels like if the Lions choose to run
42:51
Speaker 2: the ball down this Bills team's throat, they'll be able
42:54
Speaker 2: to do it like that's we've seen it now that
42:57
Speaker 2: this this two headed monster is just something special Montgomery
43:00
Speaker 2: and Gibbs. So yeah, another game. I'm trying to hard
43:03
Speaker 2: out there. Everything check because I'm with you. My instinct
43:05
Speaker 2: right away was like, Bills, take Josh Allen as a dog,
43:08
Speaker 2: as a three point dog, take it now. But now
43:11
Speaker 2: we've settled into this week, and the more I thought
43:13
Speaker 2: about it, it's like, oh, this is a good number. We're
43:15
Speaker 2: getting good value on this Lions team. I would honestly
43:19
Speaker 2: probably take this up to three now at this point,
43:21
Speaker 2: like I probably would still take Detroit at minus three
43:24
Speaker 2: the more I've looked in this game. So yeah, just
43:26
Speaker 2: a tough spot for this Bills team coming off such
43:28
Speaker 2: a brutal game against the Rams, facing, like you just said,
43:31
Speaker 2: a Lion's team that's coming off extended rust at home,
43:34
Speaker 2: getting guys back healthy. This should just be a great
43:36
Speaker 2: matchup for them.
43:38
Speaker 1: Also, the Bill's coming off a brutal stretch, right playing
43:41
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, playing the Niners, going across the country, playing
43:45
Speaker 1: the Rams in a in a crazy game, physical game.
43:49
Speaker 1: Uh now they got to travel again. For the Lion
43:52
Speaker 1: it's just a it's a. It's a rough it's a
43:54
Speaker 1: rough spot for the Bills. So all right, good, then
43:57
Speaker 1: I feel better about putting the Lions in at two
44:00
Speaker 1: and a half. You've kind of convinced me. You made
44:01
Speaker 1: me fin.
44:02
Speaker 2: I've been hitting it like I've been betting this, but
44:03
Speaker 2: it was just sitting at too, I was like, I
44:05
Speaker 2: got to keep betting this until it goes up to
44:06
Speaker 2: two and a half and there's still some twos out there.
44:08
Speaker 2: If you want this number.
44:10
Speaker 1: You know what. You've supported me the way Tommy John
44:13
Speaker 1: supports me. You are my personal Tommy John. H Tampa
44:19
Speaker 1: Bay plus three at the Chargers. You've talked about it,
44:23
Speaker 1: you've liked it. You love this one on Tuesday, second
44:26
Speaker 1: week in a row. You like Tampa. Clearly you are
44:29
Speaker 1: seeing something. You're right, it's split. I've heard things going
44:33
Speaker 1: both ways. Yeah, so I feel like this is mostly
44:38
Speaker 1: a pro play though, Like I think the line is
44:40
Speaker 1: at three and it's going to go back down to
44:41
Speaker 1: two and a half. What are you seeing that makes
44:44
Speaker 1: you feel so good?
44:46
Speaker 2: And is I told you it's split that the guys
44:48
Speaker 2: taking the three of professionals and then I know plenty
44:50
Speaker 2: of professionals taking the two and a half on the Chargers.
44:52
Speaker 1: So it's yeah, exactly. I think it's the.
44:54
Speaker 2: Game that if you're like, I don't want to put
44:55
Speaker 2: this in because it's so split, I would totally understand
44:58
Speaker 2: because it's It's definitely a game I was on Monday
45:00
Speaker 2: and Tuesday on this Tampa team, and I've pulled back
45:03
Speaker 2: is the week has gone along hearing some other people's
45:06
Speaker 2: opinions and look at the numbers of like, Okay, do
45:10
Speaker 2: I really want to risk a ton of money on
45:11
Speaker 2: Baker on the road in this exact spot. But I
45:15
Speaker 2: just view this Tampa as a more complete team right
45:17
Speaker 2: now and a healthier team playing against a Chargers team
45:19
Speaker 2: that I still think they're overvalued, Like I thought they
45:22
Speaker 2: were overvalidated in last week. They got away with it right.
45:25
Speaker 2: They had two good drives that had resulted in touchdowns.
45:28
Speaker 2: Really that changed that game. Other than the outside there's
45:31
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, they really didn't do much. Herbert didn't do
45:33
Speaker 2: much in that game. So even you know, I'm not
45:36
Speaker 2: trying to bash Herbert because obviously he's playing with terrible
45:38
Speaker 2: receivers right now, but he's also been inconsistent of the season,
45:42
Speaker 2: which is my not coming into him this season was
45:44
Speaker 2: like he can, you can have a really good one quarter,
45:47
Speaker 2: but then he'll have three quarters of just struggling, not
45:49
Speaker 2: doing much. And this Tampa team, they have their running
45:54
Speaker 2: backs like they're not missing their top guy like that
45:56
Speaker 2: the Jaguar. The Chargers are in JK. Dobbins and they're
45:58
Speaker 2: not missing their number receiver that like the Chargers are
46:01
Speaker 2: with McConkey. They have Mike Evans back, and you've seen
46:04
Speaker 2: it that they've kind of had Mike Evans be break
46:08
Speaker 2: glass in case of emergency, like they haven't really been
46:10
Speaker 2: forcing him the ball and put him in these terrible
46:12
Speaker 2: positions that really mess with his lower body because that's
46:15
Speaker 2: that was injuries coming off of and looking at this matchup,
46:19
Speaker 2: you know, maybe they put Durwin James on them, but like,
46:22
Speaker 2: I don't see anyone on the side of the Chargers.
46:24
Speaker 2: I'll be able to take away the Mike Evans factor
46:26
Speaker 2: that whenever he wants, he'll be able to get there.
46:29
Speaker 2: And you know, as the season that comes along, as
46:31
Speaker 2: great as Joel has been in the offensive line of
46:33
Speaker 2: the Charges have been, overall, they're not one of the
46:36
Speaker 2: best offensive lines. Like there are ways to attack and
46:38
Speaker 2: especially in the interiors. So it's just about the number
46:41
Speaker 2: for me and loving this Tampa team. Like Unfortunately, I
46:44
Speaker 2: was hoping in our contest we would get three and
46:46
Speaker 2: a half. There's no way because we already talked about it,
46:48
Speaker 2: like a lot of books have been moving to two
46:49
Speaker 2: and a half. So once again, it's a game that
46:53
Speaker 2: I love the number. We're not gonna get the number
46:54
Speaker 2: I want and play in the contest, so if we
46:56
Speaker 2: don't want to put it in on final. With that,
46:57
Speaker 2: there's other games I like as well.
47:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think this is this one. There
47:02
Speaker 1: were three games that were on this two and a
47:04
Speaker 1: half three line, Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay Chargers, and then
47:11
Speaker 1: this last one, which I'll transition to, which is your
47:14
Speaker 1: Simon says, Green Bay two and a half over the
47:17
Speaker 1: Seahawks on the road in Seattle. And this one has
47:21
Speaker 1: been bouncing around two. I think in most places it's
47:23
Speaker 1: now at three, although it was still at two and
47:25
Speaker 1: a half at bet three six five. I think we'll
47:29
Speaker 1: get two and a half in the contest. I actually
47:32
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about the Packers at two and a half.
47:34
Speaker 1: I feel better about the Packers at two and a
47:36
Speaker 1: half as favorites than I think I do about the
47:39
Speaker 1: box at two and a half as dogs.
47:43
Speaker 2: Yeah. My only fear with this is I've been hitting
47:45
Speaker 2: this pretty heavy, and like I talked a couple of
47:47
Speaker 2: bookmakers and I was like, Oh, you're gonna move us
47:49
Speaker 2: up to three now, and they said no. I was like,
47:51
Speaker 2: ah shit, maybe I'm stepping into one here because usually
47:53
Speaker 2: when I come in and especially guys should respect me,
47:56
Speaker 2: they will move numbers off my bet. But this one
47:59
Speaker 2: didn't budge. So the books are taking a stain on
48:02
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. I know some professionals like the Seahaks here
48:05
Speaker 2: because they think their defense is still being a little
48:07
Speaker 2: underrated and that you know, something's not read Jordan Love.
48:11
Speaker 2: But it's like I don't know. When I go through
48:13
Speaker 2: all their games and watch them break it down, it's like,
48:16
Speaker 2: this is still a team that wants to run the
48:17
Speaker 2: ball in Green Bay, and if they can get any
48:20
Speaker 2: type of run game going, it's gonna be over for
48:23
Speaker 2: the Seahawks because that just builds off the four, just
48:25
Speaker 2: builds off that run game so strong the play action
48:27
Speaker 2: pass and we've seen it, like Jordan Love loves to
48:31
Speaker 2: push the ball downfield off play action pass, like if
48:33
Speaker 2: he has the checkdown of five to ten yards and
48:36
Speaker 2: it's an easy five to ten yards. He will take
48:38
Speaker 2: the man that's covered downfield for the twenty five yard
48:41
Speaker 2: or if he can. He just loves to push the
48:42
Speaker 2: ball downfield. It's just the way Jordan Love has been
48:45
Speaker 2: this season. And we've seen the Seahawks, you know, as
48:47
Speaker 2: good as their defense has been, there are ways to
48:50
Speaker 2: attacking the ways that I think this Green Bay team
48:53
Speaker 2: can exploit. And of the on the flip side, it's like,
48:56
Speaker 2: at what point does the Seahawks team become overrated a
48:59
Speaker 2: little overvalued? Right? Like they've had a run here where
49:02
Speaker 2: they've had some really great covers and you know, shocking,
49:05
Speaker 2: they're eight and five now Heather Division, and I get
49:11
Speaker 2: where these these pros are coming from. But let's just
49:13
Speaker 2: break down since their bye week, right, they went to
49:16
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers and they stole one, right, they
49:18
Speaker 2: got dined in the whole game that you know, turned
49:20
Speaker 2: it on. They won twenty to seventeen. Then they played
49:22
Speaker 2: Arizona at home, a team that we've been on fraud
49:26
Speaker 2: watch of Arizona all season. We always talk about, we
49:28
Speaker 2: don't know if Kyler Murray is just inconsistent if he
49:32
Speaker 2: doesn't really you know, know, how to break down game
49:35
Speaker 2: for him, because it seems like the second half of
49:36
Speaker 2: the year every time in his career he struggles. So
49:39
Speaker 2: he loses. They lose to the Seahawks. Right next game,
49:43
Speaker 2: they play the Jets, another fluky game that they win,
49:47
Speaker 2: and then they go to Arizona and beat Arizona again.
49:49
Speaker 2: So it's like, I get why the public's coming in
49:51
Speaker 2: on this team after those four straight wins, but when
49:54
Speaker 2: you really go through it, it's like, are there that
49:56
Speaker 2: great of wins? I mean, we already talked about those
49:58
Speaker 2: Arizona games. The first one was a little fluky, right,
50:01
Speaker 2: they could have easily gone the other way. Jets game,
50:03
Speaker 2: same thing. So it just feels like it's a nice
50:05
Speaker 2: time for me to sell on the Seahawks team that
50:08
Speaker 2: I know professionals still buying on a me to buy
50:10
Speaker 2: a low on a green Bay team that I already
50:12
Speaker 2: gave this stat and everyone else is giving it out
50:15
Speaker 2: Vikings green Bay Detroit twenty and three playing outside their
50:18
Speaker 2: division this season, like that's just not something we can ignore.
50:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just are you buying the Packers losing against
50:25
Speaker 1: really good teams or the Seahawks beating teams that aren't
50:30
Speaker 1: as good in flukey ways. They don't beat the Jets
50:33
Speaker 1: if they don't get that Leonard Williams touchdown return, Yeah, right,
50:37
Speaker 1: right right for an interception, right, so I get it.
50:40
Speaker 1: I probably lean Packers minus two and a half for
50:43
Speaker 1: the contest versus Bucks plus two and a half. But
50:46
Speaker 1: you know we can do.
50:47
Speaker 2: It's only bigger bet. So it's like I'll probably make
50:50
Speaker 2: us put at Green Bay. And just because I'm so
50:51
Speaker 2: heavy invest it, it's like, make make the show be
50:53
Speaker 2: invested in it too.
50:55
Speaker 1: I don't have any Look, I've bet them both. I've
50:57
Speaker 1: bet more on the Packers at minus two and a
50:59
Speaker 1: half that I bet in the box at plus three. Okay,
51:03
Speaker 1: so you know, you know, like you I probably put
51:06
Speaker 1: what one hundred grand on the Packers at minus two
51:09
Speaker 1: and a half, two hundred grand.
51:10
Speaker 2: Sure, talk about it.
51:12
Speaker 1: We can talk about it at this show tonight. Last
51:14
Speaker 1: game quickly I want to talk about because I know
51:15
Speaker 1: we want to get to Evan the Bears plus seven,
51:20
Speaker 1: like like it's just too big of a number. It
51:24
Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense. There's no way the Viking should
51:28
Speaker 1: be seven point favorites against the Bears in the division,
51:31
Speaker 1: Like if we didn't if we didn't have the bias
51:35
Speaker 1: of the Bears and what happened last week, and we
51:37
Speaker 1: didn't have the bias of sam Donold lighting it up
51:40
Speaker 1: against the Falcons, and we just saw this number with
51:45
Speaker 1: teams in this division, and we saw the stats for
51:47
Speaker 1: the Bears defense. We would play the Bears. We just would.
51:52
Speaker 1: I'm not saying like we have to. I'm actually glad
51:55
Speaker 1: that I didn't hear from sharp calls that Wise guys
51:57
Speaker 1: were coming in on the Bears at an excessive ray.
52:00
Speaker 1: But I'm just saying we would play the Bears.
52:04
Speaker 2: No, And every Wise guy talked to it does like
52:05
Speaker 2: that side. Like you know, this pro last night was
52:08
Speaker 2: saying his biggest bet of the night was Bears at seven.
52:11
Speaker 2: But he said, yeah, he says he loves it at seven,
52:13
Speaker 2: but it's your exact viewpoint of like this is way
52:16
Speaker 2: too big for a divisional matchup. But I pushed back
52:19
Speaker 2: and I said, I just I can't trust Caleb Splits
52:22
Speaker 2: on the road and home away. He's just been a
52:23
Speaker 2: totally different quarterback on the road and versus at home.
52:26
Speaker 2: And yeah, it's I'm happier avoid to check, because honestly,
52:31
Speaker 2: I can't. I can't do another week with this this
52:33
Speaker 2: Bears team. They've been good to us this season, so
52:35
Speaker 2: I don't want Tom knock him too hard. Obviously we
52:38
Speaker 2: just caught a bad one last week. But I could
52:41
Speaker 2: I told you my hesitation he is I could easily
52:43
Speaker 2: see Kevin O'Connell never calling off the dogs here just
52:45
Speaker 2: because they blew a fourteen point league to this this team,
52:48
Speaker 2: what two three weeks ago, this Bears team. So yeah,
52:51
Speaker 2: that's my hesitation here is that if they want to
52:55
Speaker 2: because they are they are the better team, the Vikings
52:57
Speaker 2: really could open up and punish this team. But you're right,
53:00
Speaker 2: normally divisional game seven plus seven, this is way too
53:03
Speaker 2: many points for this Bears team. So it's it's a
53:06
Speaker 2: tough one that we have to pass on chat. But
53:08
Speaker 2: it's like, don't make me bet to Spars team once again.
53:12
Speaker 1: No, Look, I think we have five games that we
53:15
Speaker 1: like even better, and preliminarily, I just want to be
53:18
Speaker 1: clear you and I because like we miscommunicated last week
53:22
Speaker 1: with the Panthers right now, Cleveland four and a half,
53:26
Speaker 1: Jags three and a half, Pittsburgh five and a half,
53:28
Speaker 1: Colts four and a half, Detroit two and a half,
53:31
Speaker 1: green Bay two and a half. Like, of those six,
53:37
Speaker 1: who is your first one out? It feels like it
53:41
Speaker 1: comes down to the It feels like it comes down
53:44
Speaker 1: to the Jags, right.
53:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, just be I get your hesitation with the Jags
53:50
Speaker 2: now one. I really do just love the number. It
53:52
Speaker 2: could be. I told you I'm having a tough time
53:55
Speaker 2: chat with this Pittsburgh number. I'm not gonna lie. I'm
53:57
Speaker 2: having a real tough time with Pittsburgh. So I let
54:01
Speaker 2: you take the Jags out. If you want to dig
54:02
Speaker 2: your heels on Pittsburgh, I'm happy with that.
54:05
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk. We can dig like it just feels
54:09
Speaker 1: like we're We'll talk.
54:11
Speaker 2: Then after a couple of drinks, we'll figure this out.
54:12
Speaker 1: With the fall, I feel like with the Steelers were
54:14
Speaker 1: making the same We'll ask the group what should be
54:17
Speaker 1: the last one in? But I do feel like we're
54:19
Speaker 1: making the same mistake we always make with the Steelers
54:20
Speaker 1: as trying to find a reason not to play Tomlin
54:23
Speaker 1: as a big road dog in again that we think
54:26
Speaker 1: is going to be low scoring and they'll play conservative
54:28
Speaker 1: against an offense that likes to run the ball in
54:31
Speaker 1: the Eagles.
54:31
Speaker 2: So I mean, you can't lie that. Your spice senses
54:34
Speaker 2: have to be going off and being like, what the
54:35
Speaker 2: fuck is this number?
54:36
Speaker 1: They go off every single week with the Steelers. Now
54:39
Speaker 1: it doesn't none of it makes any sense. Yeah, it
54:42
Speaker 1: goes off every week with the Steelers and the Chiefs.
54:44
Speaker 1: It just does. Like the ways in which they are
54:47
Speaker 1: covering or not covering based on the trends. The Chiefs
54:53
Speaker 1: over as a favorite of three and the Steelers as
54:55
Speaker 1: an underdog. We say it happens six out of ten times,
54:58
Speaker 1: but now it's happened ten out of ten times, right,
55:01
Speaker 1: so it has to regress. I think that's what we're saying.
55:04
Speaker 1: And that's what we're nervous about. Simon. Can you name
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Speaker 2: Game Time?
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Speaker 1: That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time, As Simon
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Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? All right?
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Speaker 1: week shouldn't be a surprise. Colts and Bucks. Find the
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Speaker 1: boosts under the Colts or Bucks game pages on bet
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Speaker 1: three six five. Simon and I have a money line
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Speaker 1: underdog round Robin.
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Speaker 4: There will come up Heayday, Halla lou Yo wanna pay day.
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Speaker 4: There will come up payday Someday. Someday there will come
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Speaker 4: up Heayday. Halla lou Yo wanna pay day. Tire will
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Speaker 4: come up payday some day.
57:52
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts. Simon, correct me if I'm wrong
57:56
Speaker 1: in any of these Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sprooks Steelers, Miami Dolphins.
58:02
Speaker 1: Is there anybody I'm missing? Do you feel strongly about
58:05
Speaker 1: putting someone else in.
58:07
Speaker 2: As an Eagles fan, I have a strong opinion, but no,
58:10
Speaker 2: is it better?
58:10
Speaker 1: I'll let it roll, all right? What's your biggest bet?
58:15
Speaker 2: Colts definitely been hammering that, but again it's if you
58:18
Speaker 2: can find the four and a half four that's really
58:20
Speaker 2: the key for that bet. For me, green Bay, I
58:22
Speaker 2: just can't stop bett at two minus two and a half.
58:24
Speaker 2: And I know it's usually I don't want to take
58:28
Speaker 2: this large position on a favor but I can't help,
58:29
Speaker 2: but it just feels like it's such a good number
58:32
Speaker 2: right now. And last one is just Detroit at two.
58:35
Speaker 2: If you can get the two to me, that's a
58:37
Speaker 2: big deal right now, this Lins game. I just me
58:40
Speaker 2: and Chat have just seen so many games laying on
58:42
Speaker 2: two too that I just I don't want to get
58:45
Speaker 2: two and a half. I want to get to two,
58:46
Speaker 2: so right now, Yeah, my two biggest bets are two favorites,
58:48
Speaker 2: green Bay and Detroit. Wow.
58:51
Speaker 1: I know who says we can't adjust over it. You're
58:56
Speaker 1: just betting numbers, guys, that's all we're doing.
59:00
Speaker 2: All hope is lost. All that's left is relief. Let's
59:04
Speaker 2: play rolette.
59:08
Speaker 1: Scoot roulette. You won last week. I lost so Cleveland.
59:15
Speaker 1: You had Minnesota. Remember, I wanted to remember. I got
59:18
Speaker 1: to choose first. I chose Cleveland, and you were mad
59:20
Speaker 1: at me, and it happened.
59:22
Speaker 2: That was just mine games, That was all.
59:28
Speaker 1: Sheesh.
59:31
Speaker 2: I guess I will dig in and just say I
59:35
Speaker 2: just love green Bay. I'll take green Bay two and
59:37
Speaker 2: a half.
59:38
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna then I'm gonna take Indy. I
59:40
Speaker 1: was gonna go with Indya or Pittsburgh, but I'll take Indy.
59:45
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director
59:47
Speaker 1: of Research, Evan Abrams. Final word talk to us, Evan
59:52
Speaker 1: the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. So
59:58
Speaker 1: let's start with the bye week.
59:59
Speaker 3: I'llbviously buys behind us, but that means this is going
1:00:01
Speaker 3: to be the last week where teams are coming off
1:00:03
Speaker 3: of a bye. Interesting enough, teams are coming off of
1:00:06
Speaker 3: by facing a team who isn't just nine and thirteen
1:00:09
Speaker 3: straight up this season one hundred dollars better down seven
1:00:12
Speaker 3: hundred and thirteen dollars on the money line in this
1:00:13
Speaker 3: spot be the second worst season for teams off of
1:00:16
Speaker 3: bye over the last decade. Now this week, that's new
1:00:19
Speaker 3: England Houston, Baltimore, and Washington. Obviously a few pretty big
1:00:24
Speaker 3: favorites in there, so we will see if anyone crashes
1:00:28
Speaker 3: and burns. Let's go to this Philly in Pittsburgh game. Now,
1:00:32
Speaker 3: Simon was mentioning the George Pickens' information in terms of
1:00:35
Speaker 3: him being out this week. In my article I wrote
1:00:38
Speaker 3: on Action Network, which I write every week, I talked
1:00:40
Speaker 3: about his impact on the game. So someone should go,
1:00:43
Speaker 3: everyone should go check that out. But I want to
1:00:45
Speaker 3: talk about a stat with the game and then something
1:00:47
Speaker 3: off of it. So the Eagles obviously have the best
1:00:49
Speaker 3: rush attack in the NFL. They're averaging one hundred and
1:00:52
Speaker 3: ninety point six yards per game on the ground, best
1:00:54
Speaker 3: mark in the league. Now, it's interesting enough, and I
1:00:56
Speaker 3: looked this up because I was curious. Tomlin has done
1:00:58
Speaker 3: a really good job against rush offenses one hundred and
1:01:01
Speaker 3: fifty plus average. He's twenty three and sixteen against the
1:01:05
Speaker 3: number one hundred and seventy plus, he's nine and four
1:01:07
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty plus, he's six and three. And
1:01:10
Speaker 3: the other interesting point, so Steelers great record seventy six
1:01:13
Speaker 3: percent win percentage entering this game. This is the most
1:01:17
Speaker 3: points he has gotten with his starting quarterback with that
1:01:20
Speaker 3: good of a record since two thousand and eight with
1:01:22
Speaker 3: Big Ben, So obviously that Bett Pickens news is massive,
1:01:26
Speaker 3: but it's interesting the number is that high, So I
1:01:28
Speaker 3: understand you guys are kind of waffling there, all right.
1:01:30
Speaker 3: I got two more quick ones here, so not too
1:01:32
Speaker 3: many further trips in the NFL than Tampa to LA.
1:01:36
Speaker 3: But in the past we've talked about travel as a
1:01:38
Speaker 3: negative thing, which it is in certain spots.
1:01:41
Speaker 2: But this is just a for what it's worth.
1:01:43
Speaker 3: Since twenty sixteen, teams going est to a road game
1:01:47
Speaker 3: in PST eighty four and sixty against the spread fifty
1:01:51
Speaker 3: eight now including twenty one and fourteen against the number
1:01:55
Speaker 3: the last two seasons. This week Green Bay and Tampa Bay,
1:02:00
Speaker 3: so both teams you guys like, so it fit well.
1:02:02
Speaker 3: And then I got one more for you. Now, everyone's
1:02:05
Speaker 3: gonna keep going against Kansas City. They're gonna keep winning
1:02:08
Speaker 3: and they're gonna keep not covering. But this is just
1:02:10
Speaker 3: an interesting piece of information going into this matchup against Cleveland.
1:02:13
Speaker 3: So if you like the Browns, here's some facts that
1:02:15
Speaker 3: will probably help Cleveland's defense. Has the second highest pressure
1:02:19
Speaker 3: percentage in the NFL. Mahomes has taken thirty five sacks
1:02:23
Speaker 3: this season, eleven more than any other year of his career.
1:02:27
Speaker 3: Between weeks one and fourteen, he's been sacked twenty three
1:02:30
Speaker 3: times in his last six games. His career high for
1:02:33
Speaker 3: a season before this year was just twenty eight in
1:02:36
Speaker 3: an entire year. And we talk about the James part
1:02:39
Speaker 3: of this, but the Chiefs only have ten takeaways as
1:02:43
Speaker 3: a defense this year. That is far fewer than any
1:02:46
Speaker 3: team who has ever started eleven and two. So Jamis
1:02:49
Speaker 3: might give them an easy one, but it's not like
1:02:51
Speaker 3: they've been taking it away from their opponents.
1:02:53
Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens this weekend. Evan, great stuff.
1:02:57
Speaker 1: You've confirmed our biases, which is all I can ask.
1:02:59
Speaker 1: And don't worry. The Chiefs have Steven Nelson to the rescue,
1:03:02
Speaker 1: so their takeover, their turnovers are just about to skyrocket.
1:03:06
Speaker 1: Their takeaways are gonna go nuts. As a reminder, the
1:03:09
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Speaker 1: Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap NFL week fifteen.
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