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Looking Ahead To Jobs Day · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
0:06
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
0:11
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
0:15
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Tomorrow is Jobs Day
0:23
Speaker 1: and important jobs Day, of course, as we continue to
0:25
Speaker 1: see this US economy trying to reopen here uh in
0:29
Speaker 1: the face of the delta variant, and of course the
0:32
Speaker 1: job situations country, the labor market, given that the economy
0:36
Speaker 1: is seventy consumer spending, so it's important to get folks
0:39
Speaker 1: back to work and earning a good way. Let's get
0:41
Speaker 1: a preview of what we might find tomorrow. David Riley,
0:44
Speaker 1: chief investment strategist at Blue Bay Asset Management. David, what
0:48
Speaker 1: do you expect to see tomorrow from this job's report
0:51
Speaker 1: and kind of what are the key issues you're gonna
0:53
Speaker 1: be focusing on. Yeah, high cool Um, You're absolutely right
0:58
Speaker 1: that it is a key report also because it's the
1:03
Speaker 1: ultimably the most important data point that we're going to
1:06
Speaker 1: have before Um, the next FOMC meeting on the of
1:12
Speaker 1: UM September, and I think if we get a reasonable,
1:16
Speaker 1: you know number sort of upward surprise, you know, eight
1:19
Speaker 1: hundred thousand plus payroll gain, I think that actually puts
1:23
Speaker 1: the September FED meeting in play in terms of a
1:27
Speaker 1: potential announcement for Queie tapering. If if if it comes
1:31
Speaker 1: in much lower, you know, six hundred thousand or so, UM,
1:34
Speaker 1: I think there will really be some disappointment. I think
1:37
Speaker 1: the Fed will sort of um want to see some
1:41
Speaker 1: kind of more evidence and sort of sit on their
1:43
Speaker 1: hands for a little bit longer until November. So I
1:46
Speaker 1: think it's actually one of those reports where from a
1:49
Speaker 1: market point of view, it's quite kind of a metric.
1:52
Speaker 1: I think the market is kind of inclined to think
1:54
Speaker 1: that it might be a little bit disappointing. The August
1:57
Speaker 1: number often comes in a little bit lower than expectations
2:01
Speaker 1: in previous years. But if he actually comes in, you know,
2:04
Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand plus, then then then I think we'll
2:07
Speaker 1: see a bit of volatility in the rates market and
2:09
Speaker 1: market more more generally, because because I say, I think
2:11
Speaker 1: it put September FED meeting right into play. David I
2:15
Speaker 1: can understand, um, why they would be looking at those
2:18
Speaker 1: two um boundaries. On the other hand, and you have
2:23
Speaker 1: a ton of experience as an economist in you know,
2:27
Speaker 1: previous roles at ubs and that I think that that
2:31
Speaker 1: was your degree in economics as well. You must know
2:34
Speaker 1: that this number isn't really exact, right, I mean the
2:38
Speaker 1: margin of error. I've heard some people say it could
2:40
Speaker 1: be three to two to three hundred thousand. Yeah, absolutely right,
2:45
Speaker 1: And um, we know that it is subject to significant revisions,
2:50
Speaker 1: which which is why it makes sense to try and
2:52
Speaker 1: track a sort of um, you know, three months moving average.
2:57
Speaker 1: What we have been seeing over recent months is the
3:00
Speaker 1: you know, the trend has been one of increasing job gains,
3:05
Speaker 1: and you know, I think j Power Jackson Hole kind
3:08
Speaker 1: of expressed his confidence in the recovery of the labor
3:12
Speaker 1: market in some respects there really you know, I think
3:15
Speaker 1: what would be a really interesting numbers is, well, obviously
3:19
Speaker 1: we get into September and you know, whether schools are
3:23
Speaker 1: fully reopening, because that will have an impact in terms
3:26
Speaker 1: of labor supply, labor participation, the participation of a lot
3:31
Speaker 1: of um, you know, parents is still actually somewhat lower
3:34
Speaker 1: than it than it was um pre pandemic and so
3:39
Speaker 1: you know, the reopening of schools is it's kind of
3:41
Speaker 1: a key issue, and that actually ties us back into
3:44
Speaker 1: two tomorrow's number as well, because one of the sources
3:47
Speaker 1: of uncertainty is the counting of um uh, you know,
3:52
Speaker 1: teachers being hired for for for the new school school year.
3:56
Speaker 1: So you know that that creates some some some noise
3:59
Speaker 1: I think to some extent within within within the data.
4:03
Speaker 1: But you know, I think, as I say, you know,
4:05
Speaker 1: we were kind of the clock has been set. I
4:07
Speaker 1: think now for an announcement around taper, Pal said, you
4:12
Speaker 1: know they're gonna start tapering this year in all likelihoods um,
4:15
Speaker 1: and so I think that's going to make each of
4:17
Speaker 1: these data points increasingly um you know, important from a
4:20
Speaker 1: market perspective. All right, David, assuming that's all true, we
4:24
Speaker 1: do get some more color about tapering perhaps later in
4:27
Speaker 1: the year. How are you allocating your capital as as
4:31
Speaker 1: you think about generating returns? Again, we've had a huge
4:35
Speaker 1: run up here in the SMP so far this year.
4:37
Speaker 1: What do you do for these remaining months here as
4:39
Speaker 1: we're looking at two? Yeah, I mean it's it's actually
4:44
Speaker 1: quite a tough um sort of outlook I think for
4:48
Speaker 1: UM investors because you know, the broad macroeconomic outlook you know,
4:53
Speaker 1: in our view is still pretty positive. We're expecting you know,
4:56
Speaker 1: still solid growth. It's a good backdrop for corporate earnings. UM,
5:00
Speaker 1: it's a good back job for UM. You know, credit
5:03
Speaker 1: markets more and more and more broadly, but against that,
5:06
Speaker 1: valuations are very you know, are very stretches. I know
5:10
Speaker 1: something that you've been UM discussing. You know, obviously equities, uh,
5:14
Speaker 1: you know, all time highs. Credit spreads are you know,
5:19
Speaker 1: at or near sort of they're sort of all in
5:22
Speaker 1: tights all in Yields are very low as well. So
5:25
Speaker 1: you know, the way that we're allocating capital is to
5:28
Speaker 1: stay fully invested. But we have UM it's like take
5:31
Speaker 1: dial down some of the risks in our portfolios. UM.
5:36
Speaker 1: You know, we're just concentrating on those sectors that we
5:38
Speaker 1: particularly like. We still like UM financials. UM. We do
5:43
Speaker 1: think we're gonna get some steepening at some point of
5:45
Speaker 1: the the yield curve and also the improving outlook and
5:49
Speaker 1: improvement in asset quality. So we like things like subfinancial
5:52
Speaker 1: UM debt, but we we've kind of scaled back on
5:55
Speaker 1: some of the sort of cyclical exposure. Um, you know
5:59
Speaker 1: we have just because say a lot of the evaluations
6:03
Speaker 1: of such that you're just not really getting paid to take.
6:06
Speaker 1: I think, too much risk at this point in time.
6:09
Speaker 1: Stay invested, but don't kind of go too far away
6:13
Speaker 1: from home. Don't take too much risk onto the portfolio. David,
6:18
Speaker 1: thanks very much, great to get your insight in these
6:21
Speaker 1: markets as we hit you know, yet another record high.
6:23
Speaker 1: I think it's important to be cautious, right, I mean,
6:28
Speaker 1: after how, after all, how many years can you see
6:31
Speaker 1: gains of this size? And I mean there are some
6:35
Speaker 1: good points to be made still in the in the
6:37
Speaker 1: long camp, but I think you've got to you've gotta
6:41
Speaker 1: watch the obvious signpost. David Riley, their partner and chief
6:45
Speaker 1: investment strategists at Blue Bay Asset Management, talking to us
6:50
Speaker 1: about the non farm payrolls numbers tomorrow. As a reminder,
6:53
Speaker 1: if you're a Bloomberg terminal user, you can tie w
6:57
Speaker 1: h I S. Go there. You'll see under number twenty
7:01
Speaker 1: eight the change in non farm payrolls, the whisper number
7:04
Speaker 1: so far seven and twenty thousand. This is Bloomberg. Rebecca
7:11
Speaker 1: Ray joins US executive vice president of Human capital at
7:15
Speaker 1: the conference board, and she's here to talk about They're
7:18
Speaker 1: back to work survey. A conference border return to work
7:22
Speaker 1: survey shows it as delta surges. Anxiety about the return
7:26
Speaker 1: to the workplace has nearly doubled. What exactly does this mean?
7:32
Speaker 1: I mean in terms of anxiety like my seventy five
7:36
Speaker 1: year old mom is afraid to get COVID or what
7:38
Speaker 1: kind of anxiety do you do? You do? You mean, well,
7:42
Speaker 1: good morning, and thank you for asking me to join you.
7:45
Speaker 1: They're very concerned about a few things in particular, and
7:49
Speaker 1: we had seen a decline in the number of people
7:51
Speaker 1: in our earlier very similar surveys indicate that they were
7:55
Speaker 1: concerned about personally contracting COVID or bringing it back home
7:59
Speaker 1: to go in their home, and that had dropped a
8:02
Speaker 1: bit when we last died this in June, but it
8:04
Speaker 1: has popped back up, and I think that's attributable to
8:06
Speaker 1: a few things, largely the headlines around the rise of
8:10
Speaker 1: the delta variant. So again, I guess, Rebecca, the issue
8:15
Speaker 1: is that we're coming up here on Labor Day, and
8:17
Speaker 1: that seemed to be a day a lot of businesses
8:20
Speaker 1: were saying, Hey, we're going to start bringing people back
8:22
Speaker 1: to work once the summer's over and all that type
8:25
Speaker 1: of thing. Now we've seen companies kind of push that
8:28
Speaker 1: back to October something even the new year. Is that
8:32
Speaker 1: in a reflection of what they're hearing from their employees,
8:38
Speaker 1: I think in part, I think also they're watching the
8:41
Speaker 1: same headlines. They're concerned about the ability to keep their
8:44
Speaker 1: workers safe, which I think, to their credit, almost every
8:47
Speaker 1: business has had that as the number one priority. But
8:50
Speaker 1: they're also watching to see what kind of local government
8:54
Speaker 1: or state government mandates there maybe around mask usage or spacing.
8:58
Speaker 1: And so you know, this is a very fluid changing situation,
9:02
Speaker 1: and so you know it puts businesses in a tough spot.
9:05
Speaker 1: They have to make a call, and you know, new
9:08
Speaker 1: information comes along and they made need to revisit that.
9:11
Speaker 1: So I think there's an awful lot of re examining
9:14
Speaker 1: all the time as to whether or not the plans
9:17
Speaker 1: that they have in place are indeed correct for the
9:19
Speaker 1: latest situation. There are some people who just don't want
9:23
Speaker 1: to ever go back though, right. I mean, I'm not
9:27
Speaker 1: saying they would answer um questions on a survey, uh untruthfully,
9:35
Speaker 1: But there are people that clearly are happier working from
9:38
Speaker 1: home and maybe even more productive. So does this does
9:43
Speaker 1: does the way we work look changed forever? I think
9:48
Speaker 1: it's certainly changed for the foreseeable future. I think there's
9:51
Speaker 1: a great experiment about working remotely, and certainly I want
9:54
Speaker 1: to acknowledge that many companies and many workers don't have
9:57
Speaker 1: that opportunity. You know, they had to consuldier on and
10:00
Speaker 1: they had to adapt their you know, manufacturing plans who
10:03
Speaker 1: were you know, continue to have frontline workers. But for
10:06
Speaker 1: those who were able to work remotely, we've proven I
10:10
Speaker 1: think we knew beforehand, whether it was research from the
10:13
Speaker 1: conference board of that of others, that remote work was
10:15
Speaker 1: as productive in most cases as work in a physical
10:19
Speaker 1: work site work site. So we have truly proven that now.
10:23
Speaker 1: And I think the longer that this has has gone on,
10:27
Speaker 1: the more people have become accustomed to balancing their work
10:30
Speaker 1: and personal lives. And there are some benefits. Certainly, there
10:33
Speaker 1: are some risks, and we identified some of those in
10:35
Speaker 1: the survey, but for an awful lot of people, the
10:38
Speaker 1: ability to have a better grip on integrating their work
10:41
Speaker 1: and personal lives. I hate to use the word balance,
10:43
Speaker 1: but but let's say integration. People have realized that they
10:47
Speaker 1: can do it, and many people, particularly those who have
10:50
Speaker 1: maybe a good twenty years of work ahead of them,
10:53
Speaker 1: are saying, I do not want to go back to
10:55
Speaker 1: the way things were with doing a commute five days
10:58
Speaker 1: into the office. The lost productivity of the commute time
11:02
Speaker 1: is when I think on a lot of those decisions, Rebecca,
11:07
Speaker 1: We've seen some reporting that says employers are saying, Okay,
11:11
Speaker 1: you can work remotely, but if you're relocating from the
11:16
Speaker 1: Bay area of San Francisco, for example, to Boise, Idaho,
11:20
Speaker 1: we're going to make an adjustment in your compensation. Um
11:23
Speaker 1: is that going to be an issue as well? Well.
11:27
Speaker 1: I think these are early days, and I do know
11:29
Speaker 1: that a lot of the diet your Rose with whom
11:31
Speaker 1: I interact have talked about the fact that this is
11:35
Speaker 1: not I mean, this is uncharted territory in a way.
11:38
Speaker 1: I do know this that workers want flexibility, and the
11:42
Speaker 1: people who are offering a rigid work arrangement, they are
11:47
Speaker 1: going to run the risk of losing their top talent
11:49
Speaker 1: to their competitors. Now, I think the same thing is
11:52
Speaker 1: going to happen when you start to look at compensation.
11:55
Speaker 1: We've already seen in the financial services area some uh,
11:58
Speaker 1: some entities who have Look, we said, they're going to
12:00
Speaker 1: offer flexibility and they're looking to pick off top talent.
12:04
Speaker 1: So when you start to play with compensation, I think
12:07
Speaker 1: the same thing is going to happen. There are going
12:08
Speaker 1: to be other entities who want that top talent and
12:11
Speaker 1: they're going to match or make a very attractive compensation
12:14
Speaker 1: offer to top talent. So I'm not sure it's a
12:17
Speaker 1: winning strategy, but it is early days. Yeah. No, we
12:21
Speaker 1: just got a story a couple of days ago Deutsche
12:23
Speaker 1: Bank says anyone who wants to walk through the doors
12:25
Speaker 1: of its headquarters needs to be vaccinated. UBS comes right
12:28
Speaker 1: out two days later and says, hey, if you don't
12:30
Speaker 1: want to be vaccinated, you can apply to work from home.
12:33
Speaker 1: That could work. So it does look like employers are
12:36
Speaker 1: starting to see opportunities here are we Are we seeing
12:42
Speaker 1: it all results of productivity? Is it? Is it really
12:46
Speaker 1: as productive if you work from home? Is it less?
12:48
Speaker 1: Is it more? You know? I think they're certainly gonna
12:53
Speaker 1: be variations, But in the main, I do think productivity
12:56
Speaker 1: has remained as high. Now. I say that with the
12:59
Speaker 1: caveat there are there are some downsides to a continued
13:03
Speaker 1: remote working, particularly when offices are closed perhaps and people
13:07
Speaker 1: don't have the opportunity to interact with colleagues in quite
13:10
Speaker 1: the same way. So I do think that we're going
13:13
Speaker 1: to be watching this very closely. But I do think
13:16
Speaker 1: that the concerns around isolation and mental health, the concerns
13:20
Speaker 1: around career advancement, you know, we're seeing in the headlines today.
13:24
Speaker 1: Even some organizations are saying, if you're not vaccinated, please
13:28
Speaker 1: don't come to our you know, our leadership development center
13:30
Speaker 1: because this is just not something that you can take
13:33
Speaker 1: advantage of. All right, I have to leave it there
13:35
Speaker 1: just because of time, but thank you so much for
13:37
Speaker 1: joining us. Rebecca Ray, executive vice president of Human Capital
13:39
Speaker 1: for the Conference Board. Well, well, the delta variant raging
13:45
Speaker 1: in various parts of the country, folks are thinking about
13:48
Speaker 1: maybe staycation might be the call here for this Labor
13:52
Speaker 1: Day weekend, maybe not doing so much traveling. Let's check
13:55
Speaker 1: in with Brian Fields. He's a chief commercial officer for
13:58
Speaker 1: group On based in Chicago, Illinois. Brian, thanks so much
14:00
Speaker 1: for joining us here again as we head into this
14:03
Speaker 1: Labor Day weekend. What are you seeing in terms of
14:06
Speaker 1: the experiences that that some of your users are are
14:09
Speaker 1: looking for. Hey, Paula, Matt, thank you for having me
14:14
Speaker 1: on the show. Very excited to be here. We are
14:17
Speaker 1: very excited about the upcoming Labor Day weekend, and we
14:21
Speaker 1: do believe we can help consumers find something amazing to
14:23
Speaker 1: do in their local communities or wherever they may be.
14:26
Speaker 1: Uh really coming back coming out of the pandemic, we
14:30
Speaker 1: all want to get back to experiences to bring us
14:33
Speaker 1: joy and allow us to connect meaningfully with others. As
14:37
Speaker 1: a result, what we're seeing is consumers gravitating more towards uh,
14:41
Speaker 1: towards more of what they did pre pandemic, despite what's
14:45
Speaker 1: happening with the delta variants. So top trending local experiences
14:49
Speaker 1: at the moment in North America, we're seeing our return
14:53
Speaker 1: to trampoline parks and bouncy houses, amusement parks, museums, and
14:59
Speaker 1: zoos animal looks. So um. We obviously have a ton
15:03
Speaker 1: of options available for all this. H on the group
15:05
Speaker 1: on mobile app. I get into a trampoline park. Do
15:08
Speaker 1: you have to be a kid or kind of? No?
15:13
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if there's any upper
15:16
Speaker 1: limits on size, but you absolutely do not have to
15:19
Speaker 1: be a kid. I speak from personal experience. There are
15:22
Speaker 1: a lot of fun that sounds awesome. I've never I
15:25
Speaker 1: was thinking you're gonna tell us like race tracks or skydiving,
15:28
Speaker 1: but it's actually I haven't been bowling and so long.
15:32
Speaker 1: I would love to go bowling right now. What what
15:36
Speaker 1: what about the kind of higher end experiences? What are
15:39
Speaker 1: what are people looking at on the luxury front? Yeah? So, um,
15:44
Speaker 1: you know, so we we think outdoor activities are at
15:47
Speaker 1: the forefront at this Labor Day weekend, but we're seeing
15:50
Speaker 1: some other big trends. Uh that that kind of hit
15:54
Speaker 1: your point on some some higher end services A couple
15:57
Speaker 1: of couple of massages really popular. Um, and we're seeing,
16:02
Speaker 1: you know, people are kind of making themselves look look
16:05
Speaker 1: better and more conscious about being on zoom all the
16:08
Speaker 1: time as we use technology to communicate with others more so, uh,
16:13
Speaker 1: looking at services such as botox and white Bow to
16:15
Speaker 1: be zoom ready, it's been has been very popular as well.
16:19
Speaker 1: Hey Brian, you know you're just gonna let that one lie.
16:22
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let that one due. I wonder if they
16:24
Speaker 1: could light at one of my chains, you know, just
16:26
Speaker 1: get rid of one. I think you can you can
16:31
Speaker 1: find just about any any service that that you want
16:34
Speaker 1: out there for a needy group on, I need somebody else.
16:38
Speaker 1: If Paul weren't in such good shape, you could join me. Yeah, well,
16:41
Speaker 1: you know, I'll talk to Al from Jersey on that. Matt,
16:43
Speaker 1: see see what see what we can do? All right?
16:45
Speaker 1: So group on Brian, I know you guys deal with
16:47
Speaker 1: a lot of small businesses and they got really hit
16:49
Speaker 1: hard with the pandemic and the economic disruption. Here. What
16:53
Speaker 1: are you seeing with some of your small businesses around
16:55
Speaker 1: the country, So you know, the bottom line is is resilience. Um,
17:02
Speaker 1: it is amazing how resilient. Uh, these small businesses have been.
17:08
Speaker 1: They've been creative, they've they've you know, in the restaurant space,
17:11
Speaker 1: they've pivoted to take out the delivery over the last year, UM,
17:14
Speaker 1: you know, in the healthcare space, moved to virtual. We've
17:17
Speaker 1: just seen just incredible resilience, uh, within our merchants that
17:22
Speaker 1: we work with. And you've got to it's not just
17:25
Speaker 1: in the US, right because I see group on dot
17:28
Speaker 1: d so you can access these. I'm in Berlin by
17:32
Speaker 1: the way, Brian, so you can access these in all
17:36
Speaker 1: different countries. Um, what kind of growth do you expect
17:42
Speaker 1: or what kind of growth are you seeing now that
17:44
Speaker 1: we've reopened, I guess, and what kind of growth do
17:46
Speaker 1: you expect throughout the year? Yeah? We um, look, we're
17:52
Speaker 1: um ah, we're seeing growth in a lot of our
17:58
Speaker 1: traditional categories. Um what we uh what we you know,
18:02
Speaker 1: we we certainly have a bit of a bump here
18:06
Speaker 1: we delta um, which which you know we're all working through.
18:11
Speaker 1: But um, you know, the will be watching the macro
18:15
Speaker 1: environment very closely. But again, due to the resilience of
18:19
Speaker 1: our merchants, we think that these challenges will just ebb
18:21
Speaker 1: and flow over the second half of the year. They
18:23
Speaker 1: are transient and we are continuing to focus on what
18:26
Speaker 1: we can control, which is just helping our merchants recover
18:29
Speaker 1: from these devastating impacts of COVID and giving our customers
18:33
Speaker 1: back some sense of normalcy. How about different parts of
18:37
Speaker 1: the country, Brian, you're seeing regionality to to your business.
18:40
Speaker 1: Some some parts of the country seem to be in
18:42
Speaker 1: a more open mode than than others. Yeah, that's right. Um,
18:47
Speaker 1: so you know we've seen this over the last year. Again,
18:50
Speaker 1: as as as the pandemic kind of uh you know,
18:53
Speaker 1: as works its way through different regions, but a lot
18:56
Speaker 1: of it is, uh is weather dependence. Right. So at
19:00
Speaker 1: certain points of the year, depending on on you know,
19:04
Speaker 1: where you live, there's the the outdoor activities uh kind
19:08
Speaker 1: of spike up and down. UM you know so uh
19:12
Speaker 1: East Coast colder weather climate. UM, right now it's you know,
19:15
Speaker 1: prime outdoor activity time. UM as the winter comes around. UM,
19:20
Speaker 1: we do have seasonality in what people do, and depending
19:24
Speaker 1: on people's comfort levels. UM, you know, we'll have something
19:28
Speaker 1: there for them, uh, to to take care of regardless
19:31
Speaker 1: of the weather. Um, you can going back into the
19:34
Speaker 1: trampoline parks if that's what they're feel safe doing. I'm
19:38
Speaker 1: gonna look for one. I'm not sure how safe it
19:40
Speaker 1: is um in my shape, but uh, maybe maybe I'll
19:45
Speaker 1: stretch this month, I'll stretch, I'll do a little bit
19:49
Speaker 1: more training, and then in October, I'm gonna hit the
19:52
Speaker 1: the trampoline park. Brian, thanks so much for joining us.
19:55
Speaker 1: Brian Fields is the chief commercial officer at Group. On
19:58
Speaker 1: coming to us out of Chicago, go with uh some
20:01
Speaker 1: ideas in terms of what to do this Labor Day weekend,
20:05
Speaker 1: and also a little bit of color in terms of
20:08
Speaker 1: the bump that we're hitting in this reopening because of
20:12
Speaker 1: the delta variant of the coronavirus. This is Bloomberg. I
20:19
Speaker 1: want to bring in a lim Ram tool right now.
20:21
Speaker 1: He's a partner and co had a private equity investing
20:24
Speaker 1: at developing world markets, and he's going to talk to
20:28
Speaker 1: us about UM what they can do for Afghan refugees.
20:32
Speaker 1: A lame. You have firsthand experience with forced displacement as UM.
20:38
Speaker 1: What your Your family was driven out of East Africa
20:41
Speaker 1: and put into the U S And Canada, resettled in
20:44
Speaker 1: the U S And Canada. Yeah, that's that's exactly right.
20:48
Speaker 1: My own family faced UM force expulsion from from East
20:52
Speaker 1: Africa in the mid nineteen seventy amidst UM the xenophobic
20:55
Speaker 1: rhetoric and the discriminatory policies associated with South Asian is
21:00
Speaker 1: at the at the time and similar to today's ftps,
21:03
Speaker 1: left without asset and any any means of income, and
21:07
Speaker 1: we're we're forced to, you know, kind of resettle and
21:09
Speaker 1: start over here. So I just want to point us
21:12
Speaker 1: you went on though to get You went to Princeton
21:14
Speaker 1: and then got your MBA at Harvard. Uh, you worked
21:18
Speaker 1: on Wall Street at JP Morgan and now what what
21:22
Speaker 1: is developing world markets. Explained to us, UM, what what
21:26
Speaker 1: you're doing at this company? Sure, I mean we're we're
21:30
Speaker 1: an impact investment firm UM, and essentially without means is
21:33
Speaker 1: that we invest into companies with the intention to generate
21:38
Speaker 1: you know, measurable beneficial and social and environmental returns alongside
21:43
Speaker 1: a strong financial return. UM. You know, impact investors operate
21:47
Speaker 1: kind of across the spectrum between capital preservation and commercial
21:51
Speaker 1: return UH. In our particular brand of impact investing is
21:54
Speaker 1: that we we are able to generate commercial returns UH,
21:58
Speaker 1: commercial risk adjusted returns UM, while still UM, you know,
22:02
Speaker 1: generating this measurable kind of beneficial impact on on the
22:05
Speaker 1: community and our lines. Solyan, we're seeing lots of reporting
22:10
Speaker 1: and lots of video of the refugees from Afghanistan. Just
22:14
Speaker 1: give us a sense, based upon your experience, what can
22:17
Speaker 1: they expect as they are resettled in different parts of
22:20
Speaker 1: the world. Sure, you know, I think there's there's certainly, Um,
22:25
Speaker 1: much of the discussion here in the West has been
22:26
Speaker 1: focused on, you know, the hundred and twenty thousand Afghans
22:29
Speaker 1: that have been evacuated you know, in in August alone.
22:32
Speaker 1: But I think what many failed to realize is that
22:35
Speaker 1: is that they were already nearly three million people that
22:39
Speaker 1: were internally displaced within the country UH, and a comparable
22:42
Speaker 1: number that were that were outside of the country. Right
22:44
Speaker 1: and because of decades of conflict and insecurity, frankly poverty
22:48
Speaker 1: and and recent impacts of climate events, you know, across
22:52
Speaker 1: all of the province provinces in Afghanistan. You know, we've
22:55
Speaker 1: we've seen a majority kind of flew flee from you know,
22:57
Speaker 1: rural areas into into kabble UH. And you know, you
23:01
Speaker 1: know kind of again a comfortable number in Pakistan, Iran
23:04
Speaker 1: and in Germany. So UM, you know they are they
23:06
Speaker 1: are likely to see UM, you know, significant influxes across
23:10
Speaker 1: the across the globe, and we'll need to be ready
23:12
Speaker 1: both you know, with with humanitarian response mechanisms as well
23:16
Speaker 1: as ongoing kind of economic UM you know, kind of
23:18
Speaker 1: the economic opportunity and lively have bad ways. What can
23:22
Speaker 1: investors do, alim who don't want to just donate to
23:27
Speaker 1: charity outright, but do want to UM understand and maybe
23:33
Speaker 1: execute on some impact investing. That's a great question, you know,
23:37
Speaker 1: I think, UM, from our perspective, you know, governments and
23:40
Speaker 1: civil society alone can't be asked to address this this
23:44
Speaker 1: issue in its entirety. You know, the private sector needs
23:47
Speaker 1: to be a part of the solution. And I think
23:49
Speaker 1: that the two main elements of this are going to
23:51
Speaker 1: be patients and affordable capital right impact investments that our
23:56
Speaker 1: space has innovated UH significantly of the last decade around
23:59
Speaker 1: blending of finance models that both align investors expectations UM
24:04
Speaker 1: with the return UH and and the perceived risks associated
24:08
Speaker 1: with UH you know, certain investments. And I think importantly
24:12
Speaker 1: UH impact investment actually brings an alignment among stakeholders. We
24:16
Speaker 1: already have a portfolio of investments that has already been
24:21
Speaker 1: serving displaced communities. We have an investment in Georgia that
24:24
Speaker 1: was started by internally displaced populations. And and frankly, the
24:28
Speaker 1: portfolio quality and and the loans that have been made
24:31
Speaker 1: through some of those financial institutions are performing on par,
24:34
Speaker 1: if not better than than some of the general you know,
24:37
Speaker 1: you know, kind of general population and commercial loans that
24:39
Speaker 1: have been made across the board. Yeah, that seems you know,
24:42
Speaker 1: your investing seems like a particularly challenge a lean because
24:45
Speaker 1: in just in terms of doing due diligence on maybe
24:47
Speaker 1: who you're lending to, who you're investing in, and just
24:50
Speaker 1: give us a sense of how your team goes about
24:52
Speaker 1: due diligence in this part of the world and is
24:54
Speaker 1: part of investing. Yeah, sure, it's I mean it's a
24:57
Speaker 1: great question, you know, at at at our and we've
25:01
Speaker 1: we've been active in across um you know, fifty countries
25:04
Speaker 1: and and two hundred financial institutions. So we're very much
25:08
Speaker 1: uh financial sector um UM experts here in terms of
25:12
Speaker 1: kind of you know, bringing the right parties to the
25:15
Speaker 1: bringing the right parties to the table. Um. You know, well,
25:18
Speaker 1: certainly look at kind of the profitability and the underlying
25:21
Speaker 1: growth characteristics of the financial institution, but we'll also want
25:24
Speaker 1: to make sure that again there's various you know, stakeholder
25:27
Speaker 1: alignment in terms of the types of teams, uh, you know,
25:30
Speaker 1: management teams and boards that we're actually dealing with. And
25:33
Speaker 1: so you know, we have local country presence, we have
25:36
Speaker 1: kind of on the ground presence, uh, and so are
25:38
Speaker 1: able to actually benchmark all of our investments across the
25:43
Speaker 1: top performing institutions in in in those countries. UH. And
25:46
Speaker 1: then on top of that, we layer another screen around
25:50
Speaker 1: the social impact and the environmental impact of those institutions
25:52
Speaker 1: and would want to make sure that we optimize both
25:55
Speaker 1: on on the profitability and return characteristics as well as
25:58
Speaker 1: the impact that each of these institutions are making on
26:02
Speaker 1: their clients. Heliam, thank you so much for joining us.
26:04
Speaker 1: We really appreciate your time fascinating the topic here in
26:07
Speaker 1: best of luck to you and your team. Alem Mtula,
26:09
Speaker 1: partner and co head of Private equity Investing for Developing
26:13
Speaker 1: World Markets. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
26:17
Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts
26:20
Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm
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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller, three pt on Fall Sweeney.
26:28
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You
26:31
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio