Latest / Market Pulse / Debt, Delinquencies & the Divided Consumer

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Debt, Delinquencies & the Divided Consumer · Market Pulse

0:02
Welcome to the Market Pulse Podcast from Equifax,
0:05
where we break down the latest economic and credit insights to help you navigate
0:09
today's business landscape.
0:14
Welcome to the Market Pulse Podcast. I'm your host, Emmaline Aliff,
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leader of the Equifax Advisory practice.
0:20
The Equifax advisors align strategy and execution by translating economic and
0:25
industry trends into practical data-backed insights and stories.
0:30
We equip executives with data-driven narratives to make clear strategies,
0:35
clear strategic and tactical decisions. In other words,
0:39
we don't just study the economy, we operationalize it for a competitive edge.
0:44
And now I'd like to invite Moody's to provide us with a macroeconomic update.
0:49
The US economy is showing signs of weakness.
0:52
Employment fell in July after job growth decelerated the two preceding months.
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Retail sales also fell month over month after decelerating in June.
1:00
At the same time, inflation remains hot.
1:03
Core CPE and CPI growing 3.3% and 2.5% year over year.
1:09
That has weighed on real income growth.
1:11
Real disposable incomes are up only half a percent year over year.
1:16
Consumers are increasingly dipping into savings to fund consumption,
1:20
and the saving rate is still historically low at 3%.
1:24
Even with these headwinds,
1:25
real GDP growth is tracking at 2.1% for the third quarter,
1:29
driven largely by the AI build out.
1:32
Another key development has been the sharp run up in long-term interest rates.
1:36
The 10-year treasury yield is near 4.75%,
1:40
up more than 75 basis points since the Iran war began in late February. The
1:46
30-year is close to 5.25%, the highest since before the financial crisis.
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About half of that move traces directly to the war,
1:54
which flipped markets from pricing Fed cuts to pricing heights.
1:58
Most of the rest is a widening term premium.
2:00
The Fred under its new chair is saying less and the treasury is issuing a flood
2:04
of debt to fund this year's roughly $2 trillion deficit.
2:08
The AI build out ties in here too.
2:11
Hyperscalers have moved from funding data centers out,
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out of cash flow to borrowing in the bond market.
2:17
The top 10 tech issuers sold rough,
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roughly $250 million of bonds over the 12 months through July,
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up from 100 billion in 2024. That's smaller than the deficit,
2:30
but it competes for the same investor dollars.
2:33
All of this is already weighing on the economy.
2:35
Mortgage rates are pushing upward and housing is struggling.
2:39
The treasury has tried buybacks and yen intervention and more Fannie and Fetti
2:44
MAC mortgage purchases to lean against the rise with limited success
2:49
so far.
2:50
Our baseline sees the 10-year easing back near 4.5% by fall
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with roughly a one in five chance of a more serious selloff over the next year.
3:00
So the same AI investment propping up GDP is also part of what's pressuring in
3:04
the long end.
3:05
Thank you.
3:10
Now I'd like to invite, Maria Urtubey,
3:11
to come on and provide us with a credit trends update from our last
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Market Pulse webinar series.
3:17
And we're going to get into a little bit more,dialogue related to the
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economic and credit trending we've been observing with respect to the shape of
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the economy.
3:26
And then we also have a game for you today called Headline or Hallucination.
3:32
Maria?
3:32
Thank you, Em.
3:33
Today we're digging into the latest Market Pulse credit trends data from Equifax
3:38
and the state of the consumer as of June 2026.
3:42
If you've been feeling like the industry is in a distinct calibration phase,
3:46
the data confirms it.
3:48
We're seeing a controlled slowdown across most debt segments.
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We're going to walk through the hard numbers and then bridge the data with the
3:57
insights you shared regarding how you're navigating the headwinds.
4:03
As of June, the total US consumer debt stands at 18.2 trillion,
4:07
reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year increase.
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While growth continues, this growth is cooling,
4:15
tracking below the 3.5% inflation rate observed that month.
4:20
Breaking that down,
4:20
mortgage debt responsible for 74% increased by
4:26
2.3%, revolving by 3% year over year,
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and non-revolving debt is up by 1.2%. What's telling,
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however, is the behavior within those segments. We're seeing a divergence.
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Banker utilization is actually down 2% year over year to
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20.4%, which speaks to a cautious,
4:49
disciplined consumer. In contrast,
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HELOCs are seeing utilization up 6.2% to 43.2,
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signaling that homeowners are increasingly leveraging their equity to manage
5:03
cash flow in this environment.
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HELOC balances have increased by over 12.5% year over year.
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Delinquencies present a mixed picture.
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We're seeing a declining pace for revolving products,
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which is a positive signal,
5:18
but installment products are showing more uneven performance.
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Auto and personal loans show declines,
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while first mortgages are the notable exception,
5:29
increasing on a year over year basis,
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though recently showing month over month improvement. While the overall picture,
5:37
remains stable, subprime consumers, those with scores below 620,
5:43
are facing higher pressure. For first mortgages,
5:47
subprime delinquency sits at 14.6%,
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more than 15 times the overall portfolio delinquency rate.
5:56
That tells us the what, but your perspective helps us understand the why.
6:02
We asked our audience,
6:05
"Which rising cost factor is currently posing the greatest bottleneck to
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your organization's mortgage origination and portfolio performance?"
6:15
The results highlight a multidimensional affordability crisis,
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while 40.6% of you confirmed that elevated interest rates are the
6:26
primary constraint,
6:28
a massive 35% pointed to high debt-to-income ratios
6:33
driven by persistent inflation. When you combine these,
6:37
it's clear that the affordability in math is the number one hurdle.
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Another 18.3% of you identified rising property and insurance
6:47
premiums as a significant drag. The data shows cooling,
6:51
but your responses show that this is about the cumulative impact of
6:56
inflation and rates on the household balance sheet.
7:02
How is the industry responding to these credit trends? We asked,
7:06
"What is your organization's top strategic priority for expanding borrower
7:11
capacity and managing credit costs through the end of the year?"
7:16
The theme here is precision.
7:19
32% of you are prioritizing automated income and employment
7:24
verifications, a clear move to reduce costs and increase accuracy.
7:30
Beyond that, the focus is balanced.
7:31
23% are leaning into modern credit models like Anthony Score four.
7:37
Another 23% are prioritizing early warnings monitoring systems,
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and 22% of you are integrating non-traditional data like rent
7:47
and utility payments. It is a clear strategic pi- pivot.
7:52
We're moving away from growth at any cost to a model defined by high
7:57
fidelity data. To sum it up,
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the June 2026 data shows us an industry navigating a cautious consumer
8:05
and a complex rate environment,
8:07
but the strategy to overcome that is becoming increasingly unified in building
8:12
the infrastructure to thrive in a more precise credit landscape.
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Thanks for tuning in and thank you for contributing your insights into our
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discussion.
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In our role as Equifax advisors,
8:24
we review a lot of data on the state of the economy and consumer finances,
8:29
but we also make a point of bringing that data into the context of what's
8:33
actually happening out there in the world and what's happening with the US
8:37
consumer. And in doing so,
8:39
we often come across reports and stories that often seem hard to believe.
8:44
So we thought it would,
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we could challenge ourselves and you, our listeners,
8:49
to determine what is believable and what is not.
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So welcome to the inaugural version of what we call Headline
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or Hallucination. In this,
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I'm going to share a news story with some very interesting statistics,
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and it's our challenge to determine if that story I share is true or
9:07
not. Is it an actual headline or is it a hallucination?
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So let's dig in.
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I will start off with a story that I came across in investment news,
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which according to a TD Bank US Love and Money survey,
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75% of poll participants said they delayed at least one
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major life milestone because of finances.
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The top milestone listed as a deferred goal is saving for retirement.
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So let me ask you,
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is this an actual headline or was this one of my hallucinations?
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I'll read it again and then discuss amongst yourselves. So again,
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according to a TD Bank US Love and Money survey,
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75% of poll participants said they have delayed at least
9:55
one major life milestone because of finances.
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The top milestone listed as a deferred goal is saving for retirement.
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Headline or hallucination?
10:07
Hmm. I, I don't know. I guess speaking personally, I'm
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wondering if you may have changed one of the aspects, like is it one milestone,
10:17
multiple milestones?
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To me, it was more the 75% versus it
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should still be above 50, but that's what got me, you know,
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questioning if it's true or false.
10:31
Well, the love in the publication seemed odd, but -.
10:35
Love.
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And money. Given that the,the average savings,for retirement is,
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I think I saw 50,
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it was less than 100,000. And I know that my daughter,
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when presented enrolling in her first job enrolling in a pension plan was like,
10:53
"Why do I need that for?" .
10:55
Why would I want to put aside money for retirement? I'm still young.
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I'm immortal. Yeah.
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I have time. .
11:02
That's right.
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I'm going to pull it back to a data-driven approach.
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If we think about the market pulse index from Equifax,
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we think about the middle,
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the pivoting middle and the striver population being maybe roughly 75%.
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So I may go out on a limb and say we're looking at a, not a hallucination,
11:24
a headline.
11:25
Yeah. Put a stick
11:29
in the ground and go on with his guess.
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So let me now turn it over to everyone else. Yeah. Maria, you,
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you second that it's an actual headline? Yes. Dave, how about yourself?
11:39
I'm going to say it's a headline as well.
11:42
All right. Em?
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I for some reason, I think just,
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just given the details of it and the. It does sound logical,
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and I know you're probably pretty good at coming up with these,
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so I'm going to go with hallucination and go against the grain a little bit.
11:58
You're going to go against the grain. So
12:04
Em, you're right. It is a hallucination, but I have to admit,
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I played a little dirty on our inaugural version of this.
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It is true - I thought it would've.
12:17
It is true that 75% of poll participants said they have delayed a major
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life milestone because of finances. That part was absolutely correct. Mm-Hmm.
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But saving for retirement was actually down in fourth place in terms of the top
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milestones being deferred.
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Can we, wait, can we guess? Can we, can we guess the, the top?
12:39
Sure. Sure. Okay. All right.
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Okay. You partial credit if you get this part right.
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All right. I'm going house, kids, college. I'm going to go travel.
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Am I exempt from this part of the game because I got it right? .
12:52
You.
12:53
Hey, this is an opportunity for bonus points. Bonus points. Okay. Yeah. I -.
12:58
, so I already had an A+, so let's go, let's go for extra credit.I would
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say home.
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Okay. So -.
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Yeah. Did someone else say home already too?
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So Jesse said buying a house.
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Amend my, amend my choice and say marriage.
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The top item people say that they need to defer is paying down debt.
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According to an article in investment news,
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paying off debt topped the list of deferred goals at 23%,
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followed by travel, Dave, before you changed.
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Your answer. Wow.
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Third place was buying a car or a home.
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17% of respondents said that.
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And saving for retirement was fourth at 15%. Mm. Interestingly,
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the same article referenced other findings from the Love and Money survey,
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including that 59% of respondents have felt scared or embarrassed
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discussing finances with their partner,
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and that 30% of Americans admitted to hiding a purchase or financial decision
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from a spouse, partner, or family member.
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The items people conceal include things like having a large credit card
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debt, gambling habits,
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and even secret bank accounts. According to Mark Womack,
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head of client experience at TD Bank US,
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money isn't just influencing financial decisions,
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it's influencing relationship dynamics. Mm. So I think Em,
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you got the first one right.
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You are the winner of our inaugural version of Headline or Hallucination,
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so well done.
14:33
Yeah, it's very
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tied into the discussion around affordability and the shape that we're observing
14:45
in the economy.
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Knowing that with respect to debt as being a delayed perspective,
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do we think some of the affordability challenges are driven
14:55
by more spending, more inflation, other things, or it, like,
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because if someone is delaying debt, like,
15:02
what are some of the potential things you're observing?
15:05
Emmaline, of all the things that you said, I think I'm going to
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add a fourth, which is all of the above.You know,
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I do feel like we're seeing debt increase and that has a pronounced impact on
15:24
households, American households. We can
15:27
see that in the Market Pulse Index when we look at the way that debt impacts the
15:32
striver population. I think it's other things, too, though,
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when we think about how wages impact households. So wages have, have not,
15:39
you know, paced inflation. We're seeing now that wages are,
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or at least average wages are really not keeping pace with inflation.
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And so I think, you know,
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those two combined can really show the true impact that it has on a household,
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especially those, you know,
15:56
those driver populations that are really just struggling with, you know, the
16:01
next major spending point that could potentially derail their movement forward
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and really have them decide whether or not they, you know,
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they need to make a different decision whether paying down debt or, you know,
16:12
or keeping their household budget afloat.
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Yeah, when we think about inflation, inflation and jobs, I'm going to come
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to jobs in a second,
16:25
are the key indicators for whether or not the Fed will change rates. But,
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the part I want to hone in on a little bit is because there's been a number of
16:31
things that we've, you know,
16:33
either been reading or even studying ourselves with respect to the observation
16:37
of income, and we see that income has been rising, and so there, you know,
16:41
there may be some indicators that is the,
16:45
expansion of the K-shaped economy slowing in some ways because of income
16:49
increasing? So, like what is the best way to examine that? Now,
16:53
maybe I don't know if someone else wants to chime in there or.
16:55
Yeah, I mean, I think Jesse made note that, you know,
16:58
while inflation is rising and also, as you just pointed out,
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income is rising, right? Inflation, for the first time,
17:07
inflation is rising faster than income. You know, previously,
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we've been able to say, even though inflation's rising, you know,
17:13
people's income is keeping, is
17:19
keeping pace with that. Now it's not. You know, with inflation, you know, again,
17:23
I think, you know, we've seen reports around consumption, right? So, you know,
17:27
how are consumers spending, and is that rising or is that, you know,
17:30
is that a result of inflation or is that really, or is that real growth?
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I think some of the numbers have shown that it actually fell.
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But the other kind of component to that, obviously, is savings rate. And,
17:41
the savings rate has actually gone down from, you know,
17:44
kind of 1.6 billion down to 745 million.
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And so I think that combination where, you know,
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those that, you know, are on the thriving population with equity,
17:59
with a good balance sheet, this is nothing to them.
18:04
It's really the middle and kind of the bottom piece where, you know,
18:07
potentially I'm having to make a decision on, you know,
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am I going to buy that new thing for my kid or am I going to try and
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pay down debt?
18:18
I think there's also this
18:25
is a good time to remember what we've often spoken about in terms of, you know,
18:30
when we're looking at aggregate or average numbers,
18:35
and we talk about things holistically about wages keeping pace with inflation or
18:40
not, or, you know, or going above it,
18:44
because we can easily look at other, you know,
18:48
data feedbacks and,
18:49
and even look at things like median and mean, and, you know, for,
18:54
for audiences who are trying to go back to their high school math and remember
18:58
the, the difference between the two,
18:59
the median is the number at which point half of the population is above it and
19:03
half of it is below it, the mean is essentially the average.
19:07
And when we look at things like what we're seeing now,
19:12
where particularly on the wealth side, but even, you know, in some of the,
19:15
you know, wage numbers that we look at,
19:18
those two don't move in parallel with each other, that the median,
19:23
may be, you know, moving in a different way than the mean,
19:27
meaning that the people that are moving up,
19:30
who are seeing their incomes increase,
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are kind of skewing it, and that people who aren't seeing, you know,
19:38
their numbers, their income move as much are more apt to be feeling the
19:43
pinch of increasing inflation.
19:45
To tie that kind of into the debt then that we're observing, because, you know,
19:48
we do, you know, expect if inflation is up, you know,
19:52
where we may be seeing rise in overall debt,
19:54
or more specifically rise in delinquencies.And,
19:55
like what I'm interested in understanding on that
20:00
is how that relates into the experience of subprime, you know,
20:03
if someone is experiencing subprime credit,or a delinquency picture.Dave, like,
20:07
I know you've been doing a bit of research in this.
20:13
Maybe you can you share some things that you've seen around. I don't know, dude,
20:16
do you want to
20:22
go, what, is there an area you think you want to focus on?
20:25
No, it's, you know, funny that you mentioned that, because, you know,
20:29
we've gotten, you know, as a team,
20:31
we've gotten a lot of questions around delinquency. You know,
20:35
my particular case was around those with auto loans and really kind of where
20:41
that performance is and narrowing it further down into how are consumers in
20:46
a
20:48
subprime situation repaying their auto loans. And, you know,
20:52
what we've seen over time is, you know, as the
21:00
wealth effect has benefited a lot of Americans with upward mobility,
21:04
either continuing on the upward track or from the middle moving upwards,
21:09
or even from the lower, you know, striver population moving upwards,
21:14
there are those, so that population has shrunk. The number,
21:17
the percentage of people in the subprime category has decreased
21:22
over the last five to six years.
21:24
How would you define subprime?
21:28
Those with
21:35
limited access to wealth assets, a lower credit score, as well as, you know,
21:39
financial mobility.
21:41
Yeah, I know I asked the question a little tongue in cheek there,
21:46
with both of our expressions, but, oftentimes
21:49
the industry will refer to subprime based on credit score alone and our research
21:55
clearly indicates the multidimensional view that,
21:56
and specifically when we describe a striver,
21:59
it is that subprime experience.
22:02
Yeah, so just kind of closing the loop there. So we've seen
22:07
a shrinking population. In that, in that striver group, that
22:14
subprime classification,
22:14
but some of their performance has gotten worse over time.
22:17
Interesting. Yeah, we have talked about it,
22:22
but you've,
22:22
I know you've done a really deep dive there and I find
22:27
that intriguing that it seems to be a concentration of, effect of some kind.
22:31
And, I know we've been referring to that,
22:33
but that was one of the most clear indicators that we've been observing with
22:38
respect to that. So who's
22:44
been looking at the top end of the market? Because just
22:49
covering the subprime aspect there,
22:50
has anyone able to comment on the growing wealth? 'Cause When we look at the,
22:53
like, you know, even things over the last several months since some of the,
22:58
you know, global challenges and conflicts and things like that,
23:03
we've observed the S&P 500 going up. And so, like,
23:07
can someone weigh in on that and what that might indicate?
23:10
Em, I'm going to. I'm going to throw your pendanticness back at you and say,
23:16
how are you defining top of the market?
23:18
Are you talking about our strivers?
23:21
Fair point.
23:22
.
23:23
I want to know before I answer.
23:25
Yeah. I want to, . So,
23:28
so I want you to talk about the Thriver population,and, and I think it's,
23:32
it is probably good to revisit, like, why, w- what that, like,
23:36
why we're studying that so heavily, how it relates to the market,
23:40
and then what you're seeing.
23:42
I could certainly jump in because that's, that's near and dear to, you know,
23:46
my heart here.But we have recently, and
23:50
by recent I mean within the last two quarters,
23:53
we seem to be seeing a slowing down of
23:58
that separation that we've been noticing for quite a while,
24:02
for the last couple years, between the top end and the bottom end. That's,
24:05
that's really been the defining characteristic of the K movement, is,
24:09
is the increasingly wide
24:13
gap between populations that are moving up and those that are moving down.
24:18
Over the last two quarters, not that that has reversed,
24:21
but we seem to have seen that slow down and,
24:26
and become a little more static,in terms of that separation.
24:29
It's not a correction, it's not, you know, the,
24:32
the K is closing or anything like that, but,the, the top of the K,
24:37
the Thrivers, those, you know,
24:39
defined as having a Market Pulse Index value of 80 or more.
24:43
That population is still very sound and
24:51
recognizing all of the benefits of being in a strong financial position.
24:55
The Thrivers, the group that had also been growing.
24:59
That was the group that was increasingly struggling.
25:03
There we seem to be seeing some leveling off. You know,
25:07
it's certainly too early to pronounce it a trend,
25:12
but there is, you know,
25:13
some data showing that there is a slowing
25:18
down of that widening gap.
25:20
Emmaline and Tom, I think,
25:24
I think you guys bring up a great point.
25:27
Because it's really interesting when we think about the conversation,
25:29
or at least the narrative that you've heard over the last couple of weeks as
25:34
well as talking about the idea of the K and the C and the different
25:40
letters that we use to describe the economy.
25:44
It really helps to think of the,
25:47
the activity that we're seeing in light of,you know, of where,
25:51
I guess not where, but what we're looking at. So if you look at spend,
25:54
you can sort of get a different,thought process.I think that's what's happening
25:58
when we're seeing a lot of these stories come out about convergence. You know,
26:02
the idea that the top may not be spending as much, the bottom has to spend more.
26:07
And I, I do think, I mean,
26:08
it brings up a good point of why we look more broadly at maybe the
26:13
balance sheet, the consumer balance sheet,
26:15
not so much looking at a particular component of balance sheet like spend.
26:20
So a good example would be, you know,
26:22
consumer action is,if you're looking at just spend, yes,
26:26
I bought the same amount of groceries or I bought more groceries than last year.
26:29
Okay, that means that you're spending more.
26:34
Whereas if you maxed out your credit card to buy those groceries,
26:38
there's sort of a different dynamic there, you know,
26:39
really looking at the balance sheet.
26:41
So I do think it's important when we think about the narrative that we build
26:46
around, whether it's a C or a K, to really look at all the components,
26:49
which I think, Tom, you're alluding to just when we look at, you know,
26:53
sort of each of the different drivers of what helps a household.
26:56
I
27:02
really appreciate you unpacking that a little bit more because it really helps
27:07
us understand what do you do about it, and how do you actually take action?
27:11
And how do you make decisions because, you know,
27:15
seeing all the things that we've observed,
27:18
it can create some additional confusion or potential inaction,
27:21
especially when we're, we've heard, like, over 80% of, I guess,
27:25
clients that we talk to are in a position of wanting to have selective
27:30
growth, and so finding those, those pathways are, are really,you know,
27:33
important to, to do.So I was at, you know, speak, recently speaking at our,
27:37
you know, commercial innovation, summit, which is, you know, I
27:42
guess as a group of partners and customers that we work with through our small b
27:46
usiness and commercial division. And one
27:51
of the members there, you know, had one of the board members had, you know,
27:54
asked me, they said, "With all these changes that are occurring, like,
27:59
how should I know with respect to when I should take action or not?".
28:03
I'll go kind of basics and say, obviously, in order for business to move,
28:08
you have to have a plan in terms of how you move,
28:12
and the more cumbersome that plan is,
28:18
the slower you may be able to move. And, you know, so,
28:23
like, I talk to a lot of fintechs,
28:25
and they're very nimble in terms of how they react positively and negatively to
28:30
the current market environment, to how their loans are performing,
28:33
to how their business is growing. And so, you know, taking that aside,
28:38
I would say, you know, looking at your historical information and, you know,
28:42
and constantly benchmarking and looking at your trends
28:47
and looking at forward indicators as opposed to lagging indicators might be the
28:52
best way to act because if you're looking at lagging,
28:56
you're probably too late.
28:57
What's an example of those indicators?
29:00
Delinquency is a lagging indicator. We think about performance,
29:04
but delinquency is probably the most prominent lagging indicator.
29:08
Somebody didn't pay me. Oh, my losses are up. Well, it's too late already.
29:12
And even before getting to the delinquency,
29:14
if you see changes in behaviors such as higher utilization,
29:18
what we've been observing, for example, in the HELOC sector,
29:21
which is very active, but if that's maybe the norm,
29:24
just the household needs increasing that or leveraging that equity, that's fine.
29:28
But keeping an eye on for how long is this persisting that might be
29:33
the issue as well, those changing
29:37
behaviors.
29:38
I think, Emmaline
29:43
your question. So Dave, Dave hit good, you know,
29:46
good highlight for lagging indicator.
29:48
Leading indicator can be what the consumer tells us as well when we look at some
29:52
of the survey results that we see. Are you interested in credit?
29:56
Are you looking for, are you seeking credit,
29:58
looking at loan officer surveys about what they're doing?
30:01
That can give a good forward look at maybe the reaction to what
30:06
those households and those loan officers are seeing on their balance sheet.
30:09
So the idea like I see a direction moving or happening and then I'm reacting to
30:14
it by changing my strategy.
30:16
Those leading indicators could then potentially kind of tell you,
30:19
this is the underlying, you know, tempo or the tenor of the market. And,
30:23
then reacting from there. So if I'm a lender,
30:25
I can watch what's happening with other lenders and then I can also see what c
30:30
onsumers are doing or what their intention is at least. And again,
30:33
it's intention, it's a survey,
30:34
but it's at least a decent leading indicator as to - Yeah.
30:37
What consumers are saying, they may do in the future.
30:41
Yeah. And related to that, Jesse, I
30:46
agree, getting that type of.
30:47
It's kind of a double-edged sword to oftentimes when you're dealing
30:53
with that qualitative subjective, you know, information,
30:55
it can lead you down the wrong paths,
30:58
but oftentimes it is the best early indicator of things that haven't shown up in
31:03
the data yet. Yeah,
31:07
even consumer sentiment reports,which certainly can be driven emotionally by
31:11
headlines and, and other factors.
31:15
They can still shed insight into things that consumers are happening
31:20
in their day-to-day lives that have not yet shown up in the data. So if,
31:24
for instance,
31:26
households are starting to struggle more with making their
31:32
day-to-day ends meet,
31:33
that will show up in surveys oftentimes before it starts showing
31:39
up in the, certainly delinquencies,
31:40
but even utilization rates as Maria was talking about.
31:44
So it's a fine line in terms of how much weight to put into these different
31:49
sources, but they, you know, are certainly worth monitoring.
31:52
I think that's interesting that you bring up, Tom.
31:54
I think one of the things that we also see in
32:00
data,
32:00
good example would be delinquency as we know that there are there's
32:05
seasonality built into delinquency data. We can see seasonal decreases in the,
32:09
this kind of the middle part of,
32:10
or the early middle part of the year when we see tax returns.
32:14
And so kind of knowing your data,
32:15
it's something I always talk about a lot when I talk about economic and,
32:20
and,credit data is really just being able to understand the nuances of the data
32:23
and, and what are some of those things you need to watch for and know before you
32:28
leverage that data. That's a, you know, kind of a good,
32:31
good precursor to building any kind of that data into your decision process.
32:35
I had the opportunity to speak at the National,Foundation for Credit
32:39
Counseling,this week. And I though, I though it was kind of,
32:49
you know, very interesting with respect to,the,
32:51
the observations that,that they have,
32:53
because they're really people on the ground working with individuals, you know,
32:54
I don't know if I would call it like frontline,
32:59
but it's in essence in that direction with respect to what they're observing
33:04
firsthand with respect to helping to manage that, which really,
33:06
interestingly enough ties in with,y ou know,
33:10
Tom's,headline or hallucination.
33:11
And one of the things that they have is a forecast,
33:15
and their forecast it's called the NFCC,
33:18
National Foundation for Credit Counseling, Financial Stress Forecast.
33:22
And they have seen that households remain locked into a more sustained
33:27
period of elevated financial strain. And they're clearly going to be working,
33:31
you know, closer with the striver population.
33:33
And a lot of the things that we talked about were resonating, very
33:41
heavily with them. And then, you know, we can also hear some, you know,
33:45
in some conversations we're in where there,
33:47
there may be,less awareness to some of the other things that have been occurring
33:51
on the, on the bottom end. So clearly there's a,
33:54
a broad,spectrum of experience,that does exist.
33:56
And I think honing in on,how to,either, you know,
33:58
work with individuals to help them find the credit they need or to,,
34:02
or even to prevent the risk to an organization is, is the way to go. Any,
34:07
final thoughts or commentary before we close out?
34:10
Actually
34:13
just to layer into what you were just saying,
34:16
in my research for the headline or hallucination, you know,
34:19
I came across a lot of really cool articles.
34:22
I could only use one.But one other
34:28
that I saw was, was actually
34:31
around another nonprofit organization,credit counseling,agency,that provided
34:34
some statistics in terms of the growth of that.
34:37
And what I found interesting is that,financial counseling
34:42
sessions have grown
34:46
over 143% since 2021.
34:49
So that in itself is an indication of what consumers are feeling,
34:54
you know, in large scale around, you know, the pressures of,
34:59
of affordability and their own personal finances.
35:02
If the number of people actively searching out, you know, credit counseling and,
35:07
and guidance on these personal finance matters has grown that much,
35:11
then it's worth taking note.
35:14
Great. I think that's probably all we have,time for today.
35:23
So I definitely want to thank my panel: Maria, Dave, Tom,
35:26
and Jesse.I know there's a lot of information that we covered,
35:30
and also I'd like to thank our listeners. And, you know, again,
35:33
if there's anything we can do, I hope to help you.
35:36
We can be reached at advisors@equifax.com. I hope you enjoyed the topic.
35:40
Look forward to hearing your feedback,
35:42
specifically even around the headline and hallucination,game that we,we
35:45
introduced this time.We look forward to hearing from you and look forward to
35:48
seeing you on,Market Pulse and tuning into our Market Pulse podcast. Thank you,
35:52
and I hope you have a wonderful rest of the day.
35:56
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35:59
guidance only and are subject to change without notice.
36:03
The views presented during the podcast are those of the presenter as of the date
36:07
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36:11
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36:13
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