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How the Pandemic Jobs Bust Will Hurt Some More Than Others · Stephanomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I tell you what's a surprise for me that day
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I went to work. After two hours, they let um
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: know that we have to close the restaurant and going
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: to Human Reserve to receive a letter of later. Hello
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the global
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: economy to you. And that was Roy James talking about
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: his last shift on March nine at a restaurant inside
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Miami International Airport, where he tended bar for the past
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: ten years after coming to the US from Cuba fifteen
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: years ago. More than thirty million Americans have far for
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: unemployment benefits in the past two months. Now. If you're
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: having trouble thinking about that very big number, try this.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: It's the equivalent of wiping out all of the jobs
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: created in the US economy, since it's more than twenty
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: years of job gains gone in a matter of weeks.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: As we record this, we're waiting for the official US
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: jobs report for April, but we already know it's going
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: to show a record breaking fall and employment. And we
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: also know that the parts of the workforce that had
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: only recently benefited from that long slow recovery after the
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: last recession are the parts that are now being hit. First,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: our US economy reporter Katia Dmitrieva has been one of
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: several Bloomberg reporters who've been trying to put a face
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: and a voice on some of those numbers. I'll talk
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: to her in a minute, and I'm also going to
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: be hearing from our Eurozone economist Maheva Kuza about the
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: contrasting situation in Europe. Unemployment there hasn't risen as fast
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: as in the US, but as many as forty million
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: workers are now having their wages indirectly paid by the state. First, though,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: let's hear a bit more from Roy James about what's
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: happened to him since he lost his job. He was
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: talking to Bloomberg reporter Jeff Green. I was trying to
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: apply online. The system was impossible, also ready out for
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: eleve of weeks, and I didn't see nothing yet and
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: not even information. Right now, I'm already okay my to
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: pay my rent. I get a deal for the first month,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: but for the second months, I didn't get a deal.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I had to pay on my rank, my grand yesterday.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: About the time everything's gonna go back to normal, we
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: we have to pay everything. But that at the same time,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and we if we're not received the help that we're
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: supposed to receive from the government, from where I'm gonna
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: get the money to pay all those twos? But the
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: people need to help and there are a lot of people. No,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: we're not talking about a couple of homebreds talking about millions.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So that was Roy James in Florida. Well, Katia Dmitrieva
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: has been part of the same project. She's a US
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: economy reporter and she's with me. Now, Katia, give me
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: some of the background the story you were trying to
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: tell by talking to the seven people featured in this article,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: because I know you were in a way you're trying
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: to draw a contrast between what they're experiencing now and
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: what these groups were enjoying in the labor market, the
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: conditions that they were seeing even as recently as just
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: a few months ago. Yeah, that was one of the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: things we wanted to explore, is what the labor market
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: looks like right now and what it feels like for
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: people on the ground. The first entry point into this
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: was just putting a face behind the data and and
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the second part is really just finding out what is
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: happening on the ground. One thing that we were really
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: curious about is what happens when people are looking for
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: a job right now, when they're when they're hunting, because
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: a few months ago, they would have been welcomed with
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: open arms by employers. Employers were desperate for workers, They
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: were willing to pay higher wages. They were willing to
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: offer benefits everything from childcare to maybe a bit more
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: um loose kind of hours if you want to stay
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: here your hours, for example, they were offering healthcare benefits
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: at a higher rate. And that's completely changed, and it
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: happened very very quickly. We've had a long jobs recovery
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: since the global financial crisis, some of these more marginalized
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: members of the labor market, minorities, women had really only
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: just been benefiting from that recovery the last few years.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Are we seeing those groups being hit first by this
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: crisis to kind of first in, first out dynamic. The
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: March data does show a take up in the unemployment
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: rate for African Americans, for Hispanics, for women, but it
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: also shows a tick up in the unemployment just more broadly.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: What we do know from the data is that they
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: are more likely to be let go first um they're
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: in industries that happened to be a bit more precarious,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: and so they're more likely to be let go. And
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: also there are in industries that were most affected first,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: so retail stores, restaurants, So this is um people over
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: the age of fifty five. There was this sort of
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: rise in the participation rate in labor market amongst that
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: amongst that group, and um, of course we know across
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: the country restaurants just shuttered in in droves, and the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: same with retail stores. We had a bunch of closures.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: These are also minimum wage jobs, and a large portion
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: of those uh folks for let go as well. Yes,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: it's interesting not only that I was listening to some
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: of these interviews, and they do all seem to have
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: been surprised by losing their jobs. They had somehow thought
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: that it was going to be temporary, or that their
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: employers would try and hold keep them on. UM. And
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: you also had spoken, you and your colleagues to quite
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of young people. And we know historically that
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: young people can have the most lasting effects from a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: recession if they lose their first job or are not
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: unable to get on the job's ladder at all after
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: leaving high school or college because of a recession. You
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: might think, well, that's just a few months delay, but
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: actually the numbers suggest people can have a permanent hit
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: to their income from missing out in that first step
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: in their career. And I think catchier. You and your
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: your colleagues interviewed a few people like that, including a
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: woman in Ohio, Danny or thiece who Viviana Further your
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: colleague met. Do you how much do you know about her?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: What's what's her story? Yeah, Danny is a twenty five
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: year old in Cleveland, and she was furloughed from her
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: part time job as a teaching assistant at a Montessori school.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: And it kind of shows this chain reaction that happens
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: because when she lost her job, she basically lost her
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: main source of income and how she was paying for
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: her school. And she was supposed to complete her associate's
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: degree this summer and that would have let her do
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: uh Montessori teacher training and then also transferred to a
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: b A. So the knock on effect of that job
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: loss means that she cannot complete her associate's degree, she
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: can't move on to do this really crucial teacher training,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: and essentially she has delayed the start of her career.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So here's Dannie Ortiz now. But it was just so
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: out of nowhere. So it just happened so sudden, you know,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: you didn't have time to prepare. It was like, Okay,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: here's your last check, and you won't get four more
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. And at least for me,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I am okay money wise, but that's not gonna last forever.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It's gonna last me at least two more months. Maybe
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: this summer I was supposed to take the Monastori training
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: and so that I could have my own classroom in
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: two years. But you know that all changed. Um so
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: just like just like career wise, like I've had to
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: reconsider things, not just schooling, but like the training that
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I wanted to do this year. To me, it sounded
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: a lot like what happened to um millennials when they
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: graduated into the recession in two thousand and eight, two nine,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: as far as two and they were faced with a
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: few jobs and the jobs that they were able to get,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the power was really with the employer. They could they
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: could pay them what they wanted, um, often not not
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: the best benefits. So basically the polar opposite of of
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: what we were seeing up until a couple of months ago. UM.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: The point you made actually about the surprise that these
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: folks had when they lost their jobs. I think it's
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: really important because the economic expansion completely changed the dynamic
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: of the workforce. You went from something that Danny Ortiz
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna face now, graduating into a market that
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: maybe doesn't want her um, And instead they were going
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: into a market where people were desperate for workers, all
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: kinds of workers, people without a college degree, people who
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: had some college um, people who didn't even want to
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: go to college. UM, African Americans who, like I mentioned,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: their unemployment rate went down. Jobs were offered to them.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So it's it's worth emphasizing how surprising it was because
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: employers were really bending over backwards up until a few
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: months ago to keep people on hand. Katia, Finally, was
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: anything surprising to you in the report voting that you
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: did in the last week or recently? You know, it
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: was the main takeaway bin for you. I think one
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: of the more interesting parts in the reporting and in
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: speaking with some of these people that are in this
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: story is just how finding out just how precarious the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: labor market was for them even before the coronavirus. You know,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I think I think we often talk about the coronavirus
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: as this black swan event that caused a lot of
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: these issues, But the reality is that as as good
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: as the gains were beforehand, you know, wages did rise
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: and people were able to find jobs easier, but a
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: lot of the protections weren't in place either, and the
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: wages often didn't compensate people for the kind of for
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: the kind of work they were doing. So, if anything,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: I think that's the question going forward is after all
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: of this is over, when the economy quote unquote reopens,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: when people start going back to work, what will the
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: brief worth look like? Basically, um, maybe people will get
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that kind of stability where they can't just be let
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: go at a moment's notice and lose their healthcare and benefits,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: or will it be eroded further, which is what we
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: saw in the two thousand eight financial crisis. So I
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: think that's a big question going forward, and there's definitely
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: one that we're going to be talking about a lot.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: And you here asked across the world now, not just
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: in the U. S. Catier Dmitrieva, thank you very much
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: thanks so much so, the International Labor Organization estimated this
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: week that working out as worldwide would be at least
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: ten percent lower this quarter than before the pandemic started,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: which is the equivalent of three hundred and five million
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: full time jobs. Now, countries probably don't have a choice
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: about whether to have that kind of decline in an
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: employment in their countries if they want to contain the virus,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: but the decisions that governments take can affect whether people
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: at the sharp end of that decline can formally stay
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: in their jobs during this time, earning wages rather than
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: joining the ranks of the unemployed. In the US, as
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: we've heard, unemployment has already sowed and that could yet
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: happen across Europe. But we've also seen governments step in
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: to cover wages directly, to the point where now a
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: mind boggling number of people are getting their wages indirectly
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: paid by the state. Our Eurozone economist may Vakuza, who
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: has been on the program before, has been looking at
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the numbers. May ver, good to have you back. How
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: many people across the Eurozone are currently being paid by
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the state by your calculation, So looking just at the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: four biggest countries so Founds, Germany, Italian, Spain. It's about
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: thirty million people who have found for those short term
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: employment schemes, the partial unemployment schemes where they are still
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: employed by a company but there's no activity and their
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: wages are paid bases states. And what does that meant?
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I mean you look at what the equivalent might have
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: been in terms of the unemployment rate if you hadn't
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: seen governments introduced those wage support schemes quite early on,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: at the same time as lockdowns began. So at the moment,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: are about ten million unemployed across your economies as Big four.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: If you had thirty million people who are now short
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: term in the short term and employment schemes, that would
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: mean forty million unemployed. It would multiply the unemployment rate
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: by by about four so to about thirty percent. If
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: you had on top of that those the other workers
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: that can't go into the unemployment, the short term unemployment,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: you could get easier each forty percent unemployment rate at
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the at the peak of the of the down, so
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: around now start of me it's probably the big for
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: tip percent from eight percent in February. We're recording this
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: before we've got the April employment numbers for the US,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: but most forecasters are expecting well over twenty million decline
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: in employment and potentially an unemployment rate in the US
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: heading to over the next few weeks if it's not
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: there already. So what you're saying is it could be.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: It could have been maybe even double that in Europe
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: if you've not had this support programs in place, But
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: now it's going to be maybe in the region of
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: twelve or fourteen percent, depending on depending on what happens. Yeah,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: that's about where is it. That's that's a sort of
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: runch at the moment. It's difficult to know how much.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: In fact, so if you look at a much unemployment
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: rate in your area, it has increased only marginally. And
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the main reason from seven points hip percent for your
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: areas or to seven points opposite, I think. And the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: main reason is that um to be registered as unemployed
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: according to the high definition, you have to be not working,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: you have to be actively looking for a job, and
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: you have to be available to start a job. And
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: because people are in lockdowns, they're not necessarily available to
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: start a job because they can't move. So the headline
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: unemployment rate won't tell you the full extent of the impact.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: But when you look at claimant numbers, so people who
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: have failed to get the unemployment benefits, then you can
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: see some increase. In Spain, for instance, that is reason
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: too um more or less where it was at the
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: end of twenty sixteen, so quite a lot. In France
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: it has increased as well, but still it hasn't increased
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: as much as you could have expected. And you can
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: see as well in the administrative data. In Spain, for instance,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: about nine hundred thousand people have lost their jobs due
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to the pandemic, so between mid March the end of
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: paper um, most of them almost eight hundred thousand are
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: temporary workers and very few permanent workers. And in contrast,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: you have had an increased in the short term and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: employed so these followed workers schemes of about three million
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: in Spain, so you can see that there is still
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: an impact on the labor market. It's not necessarily something
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: you can see very well in the data yet, because
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: of these problems of connecting the statistics during the lockdowns,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: but the impact is a lot smaller than it would
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: have been without the fellowed workers schemes, and we've seen
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: that also in the US. We see it everywhere. Actually,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: this gap between a number of people losing their jobs
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: and the number of people who you see joining unemployment
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: roles for exactly that reason. I think it's it's about
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: forty or fifty of people losing their jobs in the
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: US are not necessarily joining the formally unemployed. People outside
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: the Europe might say, well, this isn't so different. You know,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: we think of Europe as being a place of big
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: government and they already have lots of people working in
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the public sector. Um, maybe this isn't such a psychological
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: shift for European governments. But I mean, what do you
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: think is the implications of the government having intervened this
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: heavily in the labor market? I mean, is it going
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: to be hard to unwind? And is it going to
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: be impossibly expensive even for these notoriously big spending European government.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it's going to be helped to unwind.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: When activity returns, those workers will go back to work,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: And in a way, it's actually that should be easier
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: to unwind than normal unemployment, than people moving onto the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: unemployment benefits and then they have to find a new job.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Those workers they still have a job, they are still
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: linked to a company. It's just that there's no activity
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: for this company at the moment. So I think it
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: should be relatively straightforward for um those workers to go
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: back to their normal activity and go back to their
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: employers pay roll rather than being paid by the States.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: So I'm not too worried about the difficulty in unwinding.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: But it is clear that the programs have been generally
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: made more generous, more easy to access, and most most
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: governments initially had said it would be for March and April,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: but now they have to increase, and they have started
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: increasing um or extending to May as well, of course,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: because the lugduns are still in place and they're only
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: going to be gradually removed, so it's going to cost more,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: but it will come to an end when activity resumes
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: and returns. They will go back to work. But is
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: it is it worth the money? Do you think? You
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: make the good point that is the European Commission has
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: helped to provide a backup so that country which perhaps
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: didn't feel they had the fiscal capacity the budget to
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: do this could could do it. As far as your concern,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: just this, these tens of billions, money well spent. In
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: many countries, it's not much more expensive than people claiming
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: unemployment benefits. In Spain, for instance, it is exactly the
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: same money that people will receive as unemployment benefits. So
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: if those workers would have been fired and moved to
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: the to the claiman account, then you know it's it's
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: the same amount, and at least they are keeping a
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: direct link to the labor market and you're not destroying
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: it's quite a un it's an investment. It's it's a
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: productive capacity that's matching between workers and firms, and when
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: you lose them, you have to spend more effort, more
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: time finding the right people and training them. So I
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: think it's money well spent. Difinity maybe because I thank
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: you very much. It's great to talk to you again.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Thank you so thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We'll be
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: back next week with more about the way COVID nineteen
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: is turning the world economy upside down. Remember you can
• 20:12
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• 20:17
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• 20:22
  Speaker 1: episode was produced by Magnus Hendrickson, with special thanks to
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Roy James, Danny Orkiece, Jeff Green, Viviana Hertadol Kidmitrieva, and
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Mava Kusan. Scott Lanman is the executive producer of Stephanomics
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: and the head of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Levi.