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The Coinbase Trap_ Why Short-Term Trades are DANGEROUS Right Now! · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, to talk about.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Coinbase and what that represents as far as short term trades,
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: because short term trades. I got burnt a few times
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: with short term trades, and the thing with short term
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: trads is that sometimes factors could work against you that
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: you don't have control over, and you got to be
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: extremely careful. And that's a good example, I think this
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: coin Base situation. So you want to talk.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: About that, yeah, man, you talk about all of the
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: signs pointing to a negative earnings report, right, Like, if
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: we look at the space that Coinbase is in, obviously
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: cryptocurrency is huge for their bottom line. We looked at
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: how bitcoins predominantly has performed over the past six months
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: or even in the last quarter. We talk about the
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: downtrend of bitcoin and how long that usually lasts. Usually
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: down these downward cycles last anywhere between one hundred and
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: fifty to three hundred and sixty days. On the shortest term,
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: it's been like one hundred and forty one. We are currently.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: That was Thursday, so we're currently in like day one
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: thirty six or something like that, so we're still in
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: that short term phase. You look at that, you look
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: how robin Hood reported and they pulled back on their
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: earnings obviously because of the downturn in their revenue from
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: crypto currency, bitcoin being the leader. You see how much
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: the revenue comes from Bitcoin, I think was like at
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: twenty percent, And so you started asking yourself, at least
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: I was asking myself, like, okay, well, if we see
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: all those metrics on a downward trend, then coin base
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: obviously must also be in this because it's in the
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: same sector. You go a little deeper into the research,
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: you find that, you know, fifty percent of Coinbasi's revenue
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  Speaker 3: comes from crypto currency. It doesn't say specifically, there's no
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: details on it, but the estimated what people perceive. You
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: can see the correlation, the correlation, right, I think there's
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: thirty four percent of that cryptocurrency revenue comes from bitcoin alone. Again,
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: if it's in the downwards cycle, you can see how
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: revenue is going to miss. And so I said, okay, well,
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: I hate puts number one. I hate puts, hate them,
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: don't do them rarely. I said, this might be an
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: opportunity here, let's just let's put a put on this.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: And it was like right at the money and at
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: like four o'clock that happens, and oh, we're looking great.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: All day, were looking great, and then like at four o'clock,
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: we're looking even better. It gets down to one thirty four.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: I'm like, perfect, we've dropped fourteen dollars. And I'm watching
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: this thing and I'm watching it, and then I watch
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: it go up. I'm like, hold on, let me read
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: the report. Missed on earnings, missed revenue. Future guidance is weak.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, future is terrible.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Bride Armstrung.
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: I said, a fucking word.
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: Everything you could think of it in the favor of
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: this should be a pullback, right. I watched it go
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: to one forty eight. I said, oh damn. After hours,
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: we can't control let I noticed some platforms that allow
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: you to trade equities twenty four to seven, but in
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: the options you can't do anything.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Right after four o'clock you're done.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: You can't do anything again until nine thirty with the
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: market open and watching it, watching it for an hour,
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: it goes from up to one fifty four. I'm like, yo,
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: what this is. Then I start thinking, like, the market
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: will all ways punish you for doing short term This
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: is why I hate doing puts. Yeah, wake up in
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: the morning. It's at one fifty four. I said, oh
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: my gosh, this is ridiculous. Coin Base ends up closing
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: at one sixty four like the put was at one
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: forty eight. So obviously we lose on the put in.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: Just for full transparency, when we do puts, we're not
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: looking at them as leaps, right, that's too much time,
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: and so if we do a put, it's usually going
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: to be a week, two weeks, three weeks out, so
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: we can get to that price. It shout up to
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: one sixty four on Friday. Obviously the market wasn't open today.
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: It'll probably stay in that range. And so I'm trying
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: to figure out why, what, who's holding this company up?
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: And the only thing I could find and hopefully maybe
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: somebody can add some some texture around the conversation is
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: they said that it had hit a bottom and retail
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: investors are saying, let's buy the dip, and I said, nah, man,
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: no way, no way, no way.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: And so it wasn't.
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: Retailer let the charge, but kudos to the institutional buyers.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I'll see you.
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: And sometimes we talk about being a short seller. In
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: that situation, the short seller got squeezed. That would be
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: a short seller getting squeezed right, Like when everything is
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: pointing to the downward trend, you're saying, yes, here comes
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: downward trend. Okay, here comes market. Squeeze you out your position.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: Take the little credity. It stays afloat, Now, how long
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: will it stay at one sixty? Let's say it stays
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: up there for four weeks and drops back down on
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: one thirty. At some point, all those people who are
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: inside of those those short term calls or puts all
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: get squeezed. Liquidity is taken by the brokers, and we
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: get stuck looking like, oh my gosh, why do we
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: do this in the first place. So just be careful
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: when you're doing puts. This is a valuable lesson that
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: can be learned a.
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: Post a two week timeframe, what time frame would be
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: beneficial for them to hold the put where it could
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: pay out in their favorite like going forward if there
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: was in the same scenario, but you got a month
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: or hold on how much longer?
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: I think a month? I think it's months to five
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: month and a half at the max.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I don't.
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  Speaker 3: I've done probably like five puts in like maybe at
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: the most, I could probably maybe ten at the most
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: in like seven years. Right, this is something I rarely do.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: But the opportunity was pointing in that direction. It didn't
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: work in that favor, and so we'll see what happens
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: with it. But again, sometimes the momentum. Sometimes earnings could
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: be terrible and you can see we'll see a crazy
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: bounce up twenty dollars and earnings can be great and
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: a stock will be flat or actually pull back.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Right, we just saw that happen with Google.
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: Right, We'll still see it happen with Google, and we'll
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: talk about them a little bit later. But like, these
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: are the things, and that's why when we say, like, hey,
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: catalyst events are important, they're good to have as information.
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: They all always aren't created the same, and momentum might
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: not move in your favor just because something was great
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: because there's information that we don't know.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: But shout out to Ryan Strong and the whole family.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: And the same thing that happened in features like that,
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: the futures market may drop and then you will see
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: your dead cat bounce and then it hit your stop
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: and then go back to that direction.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: That's why you have to go back and test.
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: It's a great thing to do in Claude to find
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: out what the average true range is to see where
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: to put your stop so they won't get whipped out.
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: So yeah, but be mindful, especially in this market, regardless
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: of the direction that you're going, that you have enough
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: time in your favorite and your stop loss is not
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: too tight for the asset that you're trading.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and it got double downgraded. Think about that, right.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: So when we talk about grading, and that's based on
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: how analysts from large institutional firms feel about a company,
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: there's usually like outperform, perform, hold, sell, strong sell. It
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: got double downgraded to sell like on the day of
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: its earning. So I mean, if you look at the report,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: I mean everything pretty much was negative and we saw
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: a bounce.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Go figure out, Yeah, go figure Okay, so blackout at
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: nine o'clock you used to stand the time on Wednesday,
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: make sure you tap in and then earn your leisure
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: at twelve pm Eastern Standard time on Thursday, we got
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: Mark Barnes. So Mark Barnes, if you've ever been to
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: DC speaking to DC Park on fourteenth, you know he's
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: the one that actually had club Dream Club Love legendary
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: by all accounts, the number one club owner in America
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: when it comes to his thirty year run. If you've
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: ever been to d C, I'm pretty sure you know
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: about Park, Dream and Love and if you don't.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Then you out the loop.
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: We interviewed him at the park and yeah, he had
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: some interesting things. Interesting things, sure, man, interesting things. A
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: lot of gyms though, a lot of gyms, but very entertaining,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: I'll say that much.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: It gives very I'm free