Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Poseidon, Pokrovsk, Pipelines, and Petrodollars: Power, Pressure, Propaganda, Pacific Patrols, and a Pending Payments Pivot

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Poseidon, Pokrovsk, Pipelines, and Petrodollars: Power, Pressure, Propaganda, Pacific Patrols, and a Pending Payments Pivot · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

• 0:00
  We interrupt this incredibly awesome music to bring
• 0:03
  you some incredibly awesome political talk on damn
• 0:07
  radio Hello, good evening.
• 0:09
  Welcome I am sam trapp.
• 0:12
  This is international flavor.
• 0:15
  Very glad to have you this evening And
• 0:20
  today there's oh geez plenty of information to
• 0:25
  go through Probably too much to go through
• 0:29
  and no What do you call it overbearing
• 0:35
  topic I had Another bit of Opportunity to
• 0:44
  by the way, if anybody wishes to know
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  i'm coming to you live from the Lake
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  Ozark real estate of the art studio You
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  can call in if you'd like 5 7
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  3 7 4 6 8 0 2 0
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  you can send emails to live at damn
• 1:01
  radio.com And we can proceed from there
• 1:08
  So I've been following for a few days
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  now the uh, well probably a week now
• 1:14
  the uh, Talks about underground nuclear testing because
• 1:19
  it does get me, uh It's something that's
• 1:23
  of interest to me having been in that
• 1:25
  area of the of the world before or
• 1:29
  that profession and watching, uh, I finally got
• 1:33
  a chance to watch all of um, The
• 1:39
  Soloviov evening with soloviov and uh where they
• 1:43
  talk about some of these things and it
• 1:45
  and it seemed to be a And I
• 1:49
  only watched Generally, I only have time to
• 1:52
  watch it once a week and I so
• 1:53
  I try to watch the sunday one that
• 1:55
  comes out because I I just like the
• 1:57
  sunday one and So they were talking about
• 2:01
  uh, the khabarovsk, uh, the poseidon the sarmat
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  And these are all nuclear platforms for uh
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  Nuclear weapons from from the russian side and
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  so they're all talking about these things um,
• 2:18
  and so I don't want to talk about
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  um, The politics of it all I don't
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  suppose the politics of it all really matter
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  if it happens it happens if we start
• 2:28
  underground testing They're going to start underground testing.
• 2:31
  Yeah, I find it foolish.
• 2:32
  They said they won't be doing uh, Testing
• 2:35
  unless we start but you know, let's talk
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  about uh russia's You know rolling out the
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  carrier for the poseidon the unmanned underwater system
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  that goes where?
• 2:48
  Missile systems cannot where missile defense doesn't And
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  so out of the studio the khabarovsk joins
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  the belgrade on the pacific And what they
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  can do is they can alternate patrols So
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  one of them is always at sea and
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  on land they have the sarmat, which is
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  a heavy icbm That is meant to replace
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  the voivodka which goes from experimental duty towards
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  You know full regimen of of operational capabilities
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  so If you're looking for truth and not
• 3:23
  just propaganda, uh, they're talking about survivability staying
• 3:28
  power um You know everyone else And the
• 3:33
  bluffing that you know appears to be going
• 3:36
  on from our side of the world so
• 3:40
  even if we got ready to start, um
• 3:43
  Nuclear testing again, which has nothing to do
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  with being nuclear capable It's just underground nuclear
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  testing.
• 3:51
  We could start testing some intermediate range long
• 3:55
  range other sorts of of weapons delivery systems
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  I suppose you don't really have to test
• 4:02
  any nuclear Explosions underground, you know that Makes
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  sense to me, you know, we all know
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  what's gonna happen if you blow them up
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  Uh, we've seen it hundreds.
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  Well nearly a thousand times in uh, the
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  desert west of las vegas, it's um unfortunately
• 4:23
  somewhat depressing so but russia Did the same
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  thing and they quit a little bit before
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  we did and uh, uh, so But what
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  now they're talking about is they have been
• 4:36
  developing alternate delivery systems Now I really intend
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  to and I haven't yet beat I got
• 4:44
  to thinking about it today About going in
• 4:47
  further into the u.s side and see
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  what delivery systems That we have and compare
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  Our abilities straight up to the russian abilities
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  that I Do know a fair amount about
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  right?
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  um, so The practical headline of of it
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  all is is is according to What was
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  being passed out on solovyov?
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  they were saying that uh Both the khabarovsk
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  and the belgrade will be pacific based And
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  so one boat can be in port and
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  the other one can be out in patrol
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  so they would have a continuous coverage so
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  you don't need to Love or hate moscow
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  or or believe or disbelieve propaganda from either
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  side to know that that's logical when when
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  one is uh You know tied in port
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  the other one is out, you know, and
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  if if that's deterrence, you know, that's That's
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  deterrence.
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  That's exactly what what defines deterrence is constant
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  capability to to have a nuclear presence So
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  the poseidon is the system that the boats
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  are built to carry So it's not a
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  strategic.
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  It's not the old style strategic Ballistic missile
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  it rides in the ocean's blind spots under
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  ballistic missile radar horizon Outside the anti-aircraft
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  playbook.
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  So whether you think poseidon is overhyped whether
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  you think it's a terror weapon or An
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  easy way for the russians to bypass missile
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  defense The strategic idea is obvious You destroy
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  the adversary's confidence In a risk-free first
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  strike Because remember these are loitering munitions.
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  They can they can hover, you know, they
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  have nuclear technology able to uh To stay
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  in place for a long time with a
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  nuclear Engine a nuclear power source and I
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  don't mean a nuclear bomb.
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  That's a separate issue altogether But nuclear power
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  source Okay so Uh, if you can't be
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  sure that you've killed the other guy's second
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  strike force, which we talked about in the
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  military You know years ago all the time
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  and this was the armageddon Deterrent everybody knew
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  that the other side, you know, everybody would
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  uh have time to Them I don't know
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  send out their uh Answers in the in
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  the strike forces because it takes a while
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  for the the missiles to get there but
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  now if they can come from satellites if
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  they can come through laser technologies if the
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  your your Attack force is something different.
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  Well now the question is whether or not
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  you will be able to Respond in kind
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  and the fact is that the russians will
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  be able to even if they didn't have
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  a first Uh success, you know, they have
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  the strategic loitering forces that would be willing
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  to reply So it's a confidence destroyer really
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  in in first strike technologies So you don't
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  push the red button in the first place
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  So this is deterrence.
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  This is a deterrence 30 years later right
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  after the fall, you know And it's nuclear
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  deterrent one 101, you know college level um,
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  and it's written in the 1950s still true
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  after every you know fashionable speech about uh,
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  you know the ending of history, so the
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  the Framing of these talks that listening to
• 8:52
  between these guys on solovyov live was the
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  Hobarovsk is or hobarovsk is a new means
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  that nobody else has and it's in service
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  now Not 10 years from now It's not
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  on a powerpoint slide.
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  It's not on a drawing some drawing board
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  somewhere.
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  It is like Really in service and the
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  belgrade then you got a two boat rotation.
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  That's easy to communicate hard to ignore It
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  doesn't require you to believe in any exotic
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  super weapon It requires you to admit that
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  an undersea unmanned long-range nuclear capable system
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  is a hard thing to Preempt and so
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  it's uncertainty that they're that they're after with
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  you.
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  So What hasn't happened in a long time
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  is that uh adults have spoken to each
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  other on a reasonable Level, you know and
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  and even listening to trump these days, you
• 9:50
  know, well everybody else is testing.
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  We'll just start testing.
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  Well that What happened to diplomacy?
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  I've been saying this for at least a
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  year Where where is diplomacy?
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  When are we going to start talking like
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  adults?
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  When are we going to start?
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  Uh discussing what we can do to make
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  it a safer world.
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  I'm not sure we ever are to be
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  truthful and uh, so I I don't know.
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  You don't design a poseidon carrier To win
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  a nuclear war that isn't a thing.
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  Anyway, nobody wins in a nuclear war you
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  build it to lock in the worst case
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  scenario for anybody who fantasizes about Taking out
• 10:32
  a country in a first strike That's why
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  you do it Anyone who tells you deterrence
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  is an outdated concept Hasn't done the math
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  or it's you know selling their own, you
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  know memoirs, you know about remember when I
• 10:47
  suppose i'm sort of doing that myself, but
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  i'm saying the the obvious it hasn't changed,
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  you know deterrence hasn't changed remotely And here
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  we are One up on each other once
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  again, and we're right back to it.
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  You know what what we Ostensibly got rid
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  of in the um in the 90s Isn't
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  really gone because we We won we won
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  right we we all won the cold war
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  And if we really had won the cold
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  war we wouldn't be where we are right
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  now if we hadn't if we had treated
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  the russians like uh Contemporaries at least Instead
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  of uh some third world country We might
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  be in a better position than we are
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  right now If we want for fewer nuclear
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  weapons, which I say is a good thing
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  to do then fine negotiate verify Codify put
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  in new treaties put something else in place,
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  but hoping that you know deterrence is just
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  going to stick around because People are reasonable
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  Is about as you know effective as I
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  don't know hoping that your rent goes down
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  because you said please, you know um one
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  more Read on the pacific based Of a
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  part of this that russia is going to
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  be in the pacific it complicates the targeting
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  a boat at sea Can be anywhere from
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  the sea of ahotsk to the mid-pacific
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  that stretches the adversaries America in this case
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  anti-submarine asset assets even before you get
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  to the unmanned payloads right, so you don't
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  need to be a fan of any flag
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  us or russian to see that this is
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  Insurance against or for in favor of a
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  a second strike and not just talking about
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  the first So why don't we talk further
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  about that the sarmat is the land leg
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  of that on the russian side, right?
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  They said um that sarmat has been on
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  the experimental Drawing boards for a long time
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  and actually been on duty since about september
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  of 2023 um and a first launch was
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  in april of 22 from plosetsk and that's
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  a You know, they're slated to be fielded
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  next year replacing the uh Uh r 36
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  to 36 m2 uh voya voda That's the
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  trifecta of schedule, uh near-term fielding pedigree
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  if if true if if what they're saying
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  on this show is true, it means that
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  the heaviest piece of the Modernization triad is
• 13:49
  not an abstract plan But a regimental size
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  reality in the next budget year So the
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  sarmat can be is as is a strict
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  is a i'm sorry tactical nuclear weapon and
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  the strategic ones are the kind that are
• 14:03
  in your You know in your silos that
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  come up right and then the other ones
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  are your are your uh, Land-based sea
• 14:10
  -based air-based, right?
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  um, why does all of this matter because
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  Survivability isn't just about hiding.
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  It's about absorbing responding a modern heavy icbm,
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  you know Gives weight range and depending on
• 14:27
  the payload flexibility against hardener widely separated targets
• 14:31
  in plain english A refreshed silo force is
• 14:34
  one more reason nobody in their right mind
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  launches first Okay, so here we are again
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  talking about nuclear weapons and and We haven't
• 14:46
  talked about this in how long I mean
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  in 30 years and here's a panel in
• 14:51
  russia seven seven, uh Political analysts talking about
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  this.
• 14:56
  They're throwing out specifics that uh Rather than
• 15:02
  a treaty document they're talking about things, uh
• 15:05
  Pretty open, you know, but this isn't in
• 15:08
  a treaty document They're talking about 10 warheads
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  at around 700 kilotons each Seven megatons total
• 15:15
  and a target of up to 50 missiles
• 15:17
  on duty when everything is said and done
• 15:20
  They say that once vulva voda is swapped
• 15:23
  out the ground leg will be 100 new
• 15:25
  or new generation by the end of this
• 15:28
  decade, so You know claims made in the
• 15:32
  air.
• 15:32
  Maybe it's useful for debate Maybe it's not
• 15:34
  gospel, but I know that's what they're talking
• 15:37
  about and I know the modern nation direction
• 15:40
  Isn't controversial russia is pushing out the old
• 15:43
  And have been for a while And they're
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  escorting in new and lots of it and
• 15:49
  it's not just chest thumping You know, it's
• 15:52
  not just you know, my brother's bigger than
• 15:55
  yours.
• 15:55
  It's the the u.s. Minuteman three Let's
• 16:00
  take that as a comparison, uh, there are
• 16:02
  routine test launches from vandenberg in the uh,
• 16:05
  what's it called those?
• 16:07
  quadrillion test range and underscores how old The
• 16:12
  minuteman system core is despite upgrades.
• 16:16
  So it's a familiar message, but it's not
• 16:18
  wrong America has stretched minuteman well beyond its
• 16:23
  original life And russia highlights its rapid Recapitalization
• 16:28
  since 2018 you can debate the tone you
• 16:32
  can debate, you know, whether this is reality
• 16:35
  or not but This is actual the u
• 16:39
  .s. Is finally moving to the sentinel icbm
• 16:43
  but the glide from promise to posture is
• 16:46
  years away, you know, this is They're far
• 16:50
  far away from modernizing the the icbm Fleets
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  or not fleet the icbm core So russia
• 16:59
  is saying that our glide path is much
• 17:01
  steeper because they've been started.
• 17:04
  They started long ago And so that is
• 17:08
  part of the deterrence.
• 17:09
  It's communications, right?
• 17:11
  So whenever you want to hear, uh warhead
• 17:14
  counts and megaton math put two realities in
• 17:16
  mind one strategic systems Support multiple payload configurations
• 17:21
  how many and how big?
• 17:23
  is dependent upon doctrine And they signal this
• 17:27
  as much as set it at a fixed
• 17:29
  number.
• 17:29
  So two arms control Reporting and test telemetry
• 17:34
  give you a range of credible, you know
• 17:37
  scenarios not a neat You know package of
• 17:40
  what is you know, so basically What was
• 17:45
  discussed on the program that I watched is,
• 17:49
  you know, his numbers being quoted they're consistent
• 17:51
  with modernization patterns in the big picture and
• 17:56
  and I know they've been doing it for
• 17:57
  a while because It's not just this one
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  show.
• 18:01
  This is a continual discussion over a longer
• 18:04
  period of time so What does a regiment
• 18:09
  getting sarmat mean in practice?
• 18:12
  So basically it puts a refreshed I don't
• 18:16
  know tactical throw weight in central russia that
• 18:19
  layers it among You know other divisions it
• 18:23
  complicates targeting problems for for NATO in the
• 18:27
  west is certainly in ukraine, but the doctrine
• 18:30
  isn't changed It's the ground leg is the
• 18:32
  historical backbone of the triad it makes and
• 18:35
  making it all new by 2030 Is definitely
• 18:40
  an internal coherent goal and you don't have
• 18:43
  to like that to understand it, right?
• 18:46
  um So then the the show they they
• 18:51
  they had a few a few Uh, I
• 18:55
  don't know targets on this like they took
• 18:57
  a swing at western leaders who Who just
• 19:00
  like to tell voters that russia is bluffing?
• 19:03
  And they note that nato Brands itself accurately
• 19:07
  as a nuclear alliance And insists that europeans,
• 19:13
  uh, you know european.
• 19:14
  Well, we know this to be true.
• 19:16
  Anyway, europeans mostly mean Americans when they say
• 19:21
  you know, they can respond in kind in
• 19:23
  other words The politics is pretty loud and
• 19:25
  clear but the hard power is definitely concentrated
• 19:28
  only in america and all yeah, I mean
• 19:31
  you can disagree with that but You shouldn't
• 19:34
  because it's really true Um, the the nuclear
• 19:37
  power Isn't in europe.
• 19:39
  Well, it is but it's america's power, you
• 19:43
  know, and that's that's where it is when
• 19:45
  dutch and other european leaders tell their voters
• 19:48
  that we shouldn't fear russia's nuclear threats the
• 19:53
  the audience hears, uh, oh gee, we're all
• 19:57
  safe, but the uh What they're really hearing
• 20:02
  is a call to call to us routine
• 20:06
  that's been going on since 1949 You know
• 20:09
  deterrence depends on both sides believing the other
• 20:12
  is serious, you know and and and that
• 20:15
  the u.s will back up europe so
• 20:20
  the second you talk like it's uh, um
• 20:25
  A theater a discussion then you reduce what
• 20:29
  deterrence really mean that's why saying it's a
• 20:31
  bluff is just stupidity You know and a
• 20:34
  dummy politics, you know, if you think the
• 20:37
  other side is posturing Don't say it Into
• 20:40
  the in in the public sphere don't say
• 20:43
  it as if it's just a bluff You
• 20:46
  have to keep your force survivable Hold your
• 20:50
  doctrine steady improve your kill chains, you know,
• 20:53
  we don't have those or we haven't been
• 20:57
  modernizing ours, you know, it's That's a miscalculation
• 21:02
  on our side and the russians haven't been
• 21:05
  miscalculating so the only way Nuclear war will
• 21:11
  really start is in a world where nobody
• 21:14
  Nobody really wants it But the posturing finally
• 21:21
  gets to a point where somebody's got to
• 21:22
  do something And this is this is the
• 21:25
  part this escalatory talking back and forth Just
• 21:29
  drives me bananas and I don't like it
• 21:31
  and uh, I would like to see some
• 21:33
  sane folks in the room now admittedly Soloveyov
• 21:37
  that's a political program.
• 21:38
  Those are people that are you know I
• 21:41
  don't know uh selling The show just as
• 21:44
  much as they're selling the discussion I like
• 21:47
  to listen to it I think it's uh,
• 21:49
  it's interesting I think there's lots of Truth
• 21:54
  in it Just like there is plenty of
• 21:57
  truth in some of the things that we
• 21:59
  listen to here But that doesn't mean I
• 22:02
  have to like it.
• 22:03
  And so you listen to these people on
• 22:06
  both sides including trumpster talk about Um nuclear
• 22:13
  threat and upping the ante It's frustrating to
• 22:20
  me because it's something I thought we were
• 22:24
  Sorry, i'm de-jacketing here.
• 22:26
  You might hear that in the background Suddenly,
• 22:29
  it's warm in here.
• 22:30
  I don't know.
• 22:31
  Usually it's freaking freezing But not this time
• 22:35
  So let's talk about the undersea part of
• 22:38
  it in the pacific, right?
• 22:39
  So if pacific-based pattern Is holding one
• 22:44
  boat out one boat in khabarovsk belgrade watch
• 22:49
  for the operational signaling port calls satellite imagery
• 22:53
  occasional state tv shot crew rotations Quiet subs
• 22:57
  are only quiet to the public professionals on
• 22:59
  both sides will know the patterns within months
• 23:02
  So the aim is to make those patterns
• 23:04
  boring predictably Unpredictable and the sarmat if you
• 23:09
  look at the milestone, that's an easy headline
• 23:12
  but the bigger story is the rate at
• 23:14
  which they are being exchanged out if If
• 23:16
  one resume regiment doesn't change the strategic balance
• 23:19
  replacing an entire silo cohort over a few
• 23:22
  years Does if the up to 50?
• 23:25
  Figure that they were talking about on the
• 23:27
  show Is even close the question is training
• 23:32
  pipelines maintenance capacity Silo hardening if schedules slip
• 23:37
  it'll show up in at first in how
• 23:40
  often Officials do not talk about it.
• 23:45
  If the schedule holds it'll show up and
• 23:47
  how quickly the rhetoric it gets boring That's
• 23:51
  how you know.
• 23:51
  The system is real.
• 23:52
  It stops being exciting so Expect more.
• 23:57
  We are a nuclear alliance talk out of
• 23:59
  nato capitals That line is partly about shoring
• 24:03
  up their domestic nerves with u.s. Backing
• 24:06
  partly about reminding moscow that uh, Us is
• 24:10
  a member of this article 5.
• 24:13
  Um Defense um, and it's Smart politics to
• 24:21
  to keep that watch, you know these Watch
• 24:24
  the adjectives that they give out on this,
• 24:26
  right?
• 24:28
  and pay attention to that so the punch
• 24:30
  line is minus the drum drum roll, you
• 24:33
  know, um continuous undersea patrols that carry a
• 24:37
  hard to preempt second stripe auction option heavy
• 24:41
  icbms moving from experimental to regimental reality And
• 24:46
  a western chorus reassuring its voters that no,
• 24:50
  no, no, we're not scared at all Everyone
• 24:54
  is performing Uh, but the hardware isn't just
• 24:58
  theater if you want a safer world You
• 25:01
  need fewer of these weapons and greater rules
• 25:04
  surrounding them more treaties surrounding them and we
• 25:07
  don't have that There's not even an effort
• 25:09
  at that right now, which I think is
• 25:11
  a travesty and I think is depressing and
• 25:14
  I think it's sad that everything that we
• 25:17
  worked for in the 90s and before Completely
• 25:22
  gone it And in fact here we are
• 25:25
  again, you know what goes around comes around
• 25:28
  here We are back to the same old
• 25:31
  crap for that.
• 25:32
  We've been living in for since world war
• 25:36
  ii and probably before that too Uh, but
• 25:39
  my history is is is more, you know
• 25:42
  only goes back about 50 to 70 years,
• 25:44
  you know It's disgusting.
• 25:47
  So You know until you get some kind
• 25:51
  of discussion some kind of I don't know
• 25:56
  what diplomacy between rubio and lavrov to start
• 26:00
  with And then include some of these things
• 26:04
  and get people talking like we did years
• 26:08
  ago with our biggest enemy We talked all
• 26:13
  the time.
• 26:13
  Yeah it was We were talking with our
• 26:16
  enemies we we we spoke together we uh
• 26:19
  Talked about things we could talk about you
• 26:22
  didn't agree on everything But the things you
• 26:24
  agreed upon weren't a big deal nowadays Nowadays,
• 26:26
  if you don't like talking to someone you
• 26:29
  can't agree upon anything, right?
• 26:31
  You're not allowed to agree about Anything if
• 26:35
  you don't like the source, right?
• 26:38
  you're supposed to uh If if if so
• 26:41
  and so doesn't like I don't know what
• 26:44
  um gay marriage Every gay person has to
• 26:48
  hate that guy and he has to hate
• 26:50
  all gay people.
• 26:52
  It's friggin nonsense It makes no sense at
• 26:55
  all nuclear Reductions don't have to be pretty
• 27:02
  You know deterrence is friggin ugly, right?
• 27:04
  It's it's it's why things, uh haven't Changed
• 27:09
  it's why worse things haven't yet happened, you
• 27:13
  know, but but Don't romanticize it don't trivialize
• 27:17
  it just understand it well enough that adults
• 27:21
  have to be in charge and not just
• 27:23
  Not just people that want to one-up
• 27:26
  the other guys, you know, it's uh, uh
• 27:29
  one up the other side um, I I
• 27:31
  don't know this 700 kiloton talk this um
• 27:37
  You get this was a november 11 discussion
• 27:41
  on pacific basing one at sea rotation sarman
• 27:46
  experimentation and the regiments of this year, this
• 27:49
  is This is reality that they're talking about
• 27:52
  in multiple sources.
• 27:54
  So um, this is not Not a joke
• 28:00
  Um, I want to lean into a little
• 28:02
  bit Uh, we talked a little bit about
• 28:04
  it last night and i've had a little
• 28:06
  bit of time to go further into it
• 28:09
  On um What's really driving reality on europe's
• 28:14
  energy reality Who's driving the train and who's
• 28:19
  riding along, right?
• 28:20
  So let's look at this complicated backstory Um,
• 28:26
  you know under trump that the war wouldn't
• 28:28
  have happened Europe's hard line on moscow is
• 28:32
  washington's pressure campaign Victor orban of hungary has
• 28:37
  been the loudest megaphone on both sides of
• 28:40
  this issue But now with a new twist
• 28:43
  He has exemptions that allow him to keep
• 28:46
  buying russian energy while everybody else gets to
• 28:49
  talk sanctions and You know morality, you know,
• 28:53
  oh geez, we can't these these russians have
• 28:56
  attacked, you know Yeah, it was all the
• 28:58
  russians and and nothing having to do with
• 29:01
  nato Nato expanding to their border with the
• 29:05
  assistance of ukraine and making ukraine the bad
• 29:08
  guy for it, right?
• 29:09
  Let's go to the narrative against the fact
• 29:13
  of europe That europeans live on oil gas
• 29:17
  pipelines lng price caps politics lots and lots
• 29:21
  of politics, right?
• 29:23
  So orban came to washington and he pretty
• 29:27
  much Instantly came out loud and said what
• 29:30
  what plenty of people were not saying And
• 29:33
  that plenty of people will not say I
• 29:36
  say it all the time And he said
• 29:39
  it he he's been pretty blatant about it
• 29:41
  for a while Ukrainian victory Will take a
• 29:48
  miracle basically that There's no way short of
• 29:54
  a miracle that ukraine Wins the war that
• 29:58
  is going on right now Okay um U
• 30:03
  .s. And hungary are the only pro-peace
• 30:06
  governments In the western side the only two
• 30:11
  Europe is hardening its stance because america is
• 30:14
  leaning on europe and the the new headline
• 30:18
  out of the meeting Isn't rhetoric it's an
• 30:22
  exemption that lets hungary keep buying oil from
• 30:27
  sanctioned russian energy firms Now think about that
• 30:34
  if budapest is boasting that this waiver is
• 30:38
  indefinite that's not symbolism That's oil in the
• 30:42
  pipeline and money changing hands trump's Line hasn't
• 30:46
  changed since 2022 This wouldn't have happened this
• 30:50
  war wouldn't happen if I were president joe
• 30:53
  biden's war blah blah blah He said it
• 30:55
  then he says it now, of course now
• 30:57
  I disagree Um, and I think it's his
• 31:00
  war now, but whether you agree or disagree
• 31:02
  doesn't matter.
• 31:03
  It's a it's a counterfactual Unprovable by definition
• 31:07
  and hotly disputed by analysts and fact checkers
• 31:10
  who note he often couples His fact that
• 31:14
  this war never would happen with the fact
• 31:16
  that he says I gave him these weapons
• 31:19
  obama gave him uh Gave him I don't
• 31:22
  know of sleeping bags and I gave him
• 31:25
  weapons remember um that they talk about now
• 31:28
  i'm not saying that uh, this was I
• 31:32
  tend to believe that that while trump was
• 31:34
  in office this war might not have happened
• 31:37
  I think it's more likely than not that
• 31:38
  it wouldn't have but i'm worried about what
• 31:41
  i'm watching right now um in South america
• 31:45
  i'm worried about that and and because trump
• 31:49
  mr.
• 31:49
  Peace plan Is pushing is pushing hard and
• 31:55
  he got 10 000 troops down there, you
• 31:58
  know various types I'm, not so sure.
• 32:01
  I like that that doesn't necessarily scream peace
• 32:03
  does it?
• 32:04
  so Let's talk about this oil story though.
• 32:08
  These aren't just slogans Let's separate what europe
• 32:13
  says from what europe actually does So seaborne
• 32:18
  russian oil the eu banned import of crude
• 32:23
  december 5th 2022 And refined products february 5th
• 32:29
  2023 That's real Okay, that's on seaborne.
• 32:34
  They banned them but the pipelines the southern
• 32:37
  drushba Line was exempted from those Banning hungary
• 32:44
  slovakia czech republic could keep taking russian crude
• 32:48
  That was the deal then It's still reality
• 32:52
  now And it's why budapest cares so much
• 32:55
  about those waivers, right?
• 32:59
  Let's talk about diesel europe used to rely
• 33:02
  on russian diesel even post ban but trade
• 33:07
  Flows were redrawn and rerouted But by 2024
• 33:12
  russia's diesel share in europe Which used to
• 33:16
  be about 50?
• 33:18
  Is less than five percent.
• 33:21
  So the translation of that The product is
• 33:25
  coming from somewhere else the middle east india
• 33:28
  the u.s. With some back channels via
• 33:33
  refined from russian crude Outside of the eu
• 33:38
  which is now explicitly being targeted by brussels
• 33:42
  and that comes from snp So when orban
• 33:45
  tells trump that landlocked hungary needs russian oil,
• 33:48
  he's not making it up the Refineries are
• 33:53
  optimized for a euro's blend and switching grades
• 33:57
  Isn't like swapping soda flavors, you know during
• 34:00
  the late august the drushba disruption hungary and
• 34:04
  slovakia refineries Rode their inventories and found alternate
• 34:08
  routes It worked briefly, but it underlined the
• 34:10
  risk of where it is since that that
• 34:13
  means they had to ask for this waiver
• 34:15
  They had to get it So the competing
• 34:18
  view to that is that european think tanks
• 34:20
  argue that the loopholes should have closed faster
• 34:25
  us secondary sanction and eu measures together to
• 34:28
  squeeze remain squeeze remaining russian oil flows And
• 34:32
  any backdoor products refined elsewhere This is you
• 34:37
  know predictable Energy security 101 don't pull the
• 34:41
  plug Which they did before you've built a
• 34:44
  replacement which they didn't And so that was
• 34:48
  the problem with diesel right and that has
• 34:50
  created problems for them Of astronomical and that's
• 34:54
  why orban had to ask trump for this
• 34:57
  for this uh Exemption, right So now let's
• 35:03
  talk about gas and liquid natural gas This
• 35:06
  is an extremely slow divorce for europe from
• 35:09
  from russian The pipeline gas is where europe
• 35:12
  moved the fastest because moscow forced the issue
• 35:16
  by strangling its own flow in 2022 Those
• 35:19
  numbers are not in dispute Russia's share of
• 35:23
  eu pipeline gas fell from 40 in 2021
• 35:26
  to roughly 11 in 2024 so counting the
• 35:30
  pipeline plus liquid natural gas russia was less
• 35:33
  than 19 of eu gas imports in 2024
• 35:38
  That's a pretty structural shift in the heating
• 35:41
  season, right?
• 35:42
  Eurostat confirms this trend natural gas in gaseous
• 35:46
  form from russia is down from 48 Quarter
• 35:49
  one of 2021 to 12 and quarter two
• 35:52
  at 2025 and norway and lng Uh took
• 35:57
  up the slack from there But here's the
• 36:01
  part that the critics just love russian liquid
• 36:04
  natural gas while pipeline gas collapsed eu lng
• 36:10
  Purchases from russia liquid natural gas actually hit
• 36:14
  record highs in 2024 2024 Mainly yamal cargoes
• 36:19
  landing in france and belgium sometimes for transhipment.
• 36:23
  So the optics were horrible And and they're
• 36:26
  trying to change it now in october the
• 36:28
  eu Adopted a phased lng ban ending short
• 36:32
  -term deals in six-month and long-term
• 36:34
  contracts by january 2027 Energy ministers back off
• 36:39
  a full ban on russian gas by 2028
• 36:42
  So that's a slow Drawn out process, but
• 36:46
  they're saying here's what we're not going to
• 36:48
  do.
• 36:48
  So the hawks all say That that's too
• 36:50
  slow the industry says No, that's actually too
• 36:55
  fast Because you know you can't you don't
• 36:57
  have a replacement and you can't change the
• 36:59
  type that's in the in the system Not
• 37:02
  that fast.
• 37:02
  So the policy compromise is a long-run
• 37:05
  way to avoid a repeat of 2022 price
• 37:08
  spikes in infrastructure Uh interconnector storage got to
• 37:12
  get everything fully in place, right?
• 37:14
  so The question becomes then is europe just
• 37:18
  following.
• 37:20
  Um washington in this I'm, not so sure
• 37:24
  about this and I don't under I don't
• 37:26
  know that.
• 37:26
  I know the answer to this myself I
• 37:28
  I tend to think that they are but
• 37:31
  orban is saying That the eu's toughness is
• 37:37
  really Us pressure under the eu flag so
• 37:44
  there's overlap overlap washington and brussels have Joined
• 37:50
  together on oil bans caps financial sanctions Sometimes
• 37:57
  in lockstep sometimes off a bit Analysts note
• 38:01
  that use using a u.s. Sanctions outside
• 38:05
  of the u.s Amplifies eu measures, especially
• 38:09
  in oil and shipping of oil That's the
• 38:13
  leverage that orban has been resisting and exactly
• 38:16
  what eu strategists Want more of to choke
• 38:21
  remaining flow.
• 38:22
  So the eu has been blaming the us
• 38:25
  for not being as As Strict as they
• 38:30
  could have been and so orban going to
• 38:33
  get a an exemption from trump actually usurps
• 38:37
  all of that But the eu has its
• 38:39
  own energy security reasons for for worrying about
• 38:42
  this, too russian supply cuts since 2006 in
• 38:46
  the 2021 2022 squeeze in the nord stream
• 38:49
  sabotage drama convinced, um, you know Most of
• 38:54
  the european capitals that dependence upon russia as
• 38:57
  a loaded gun, you know I was sitting
• 38:59
  on the table.
• 39:00
  So the eu council in the commission language
• 39:03
  today Where they're saying they need to end
• 39:06
  russian gas by 2028 is framed as their
• 39:09
  own sovereignty but if you take a competing
• 39:12
  view If the u.s. Step back Europe
• 39:17
  could and should field enough Capability both militarily
• 39:23
  and energy wise to manage russia alone, right
• 39:26
  the cato institute From a different angle argues
• 39:30
  that europe must stand up on its, you
• 39:32
  know, stand on its own feet and by
• 39:35
  2020 by By 2030 they say that it
• 39:39
  can if it has the political will and
• 39:42
  those aren't moscow's talking points Of course, those
• 39:46
  are western policy circles Talking about um getting
• 39:50
  away from permanent dependency upon russia So russia
• 39:54
  is definitely seeking other customers, let's say Which
• 40:01
  is why it's so important what trump is
• 40:03
  says he's going to you know have a
• 40:05
  deal here with modi before too long and
• 40:07
  uh, There's other things going on.
• 40:10
  I got a story on that bit here
• 40:12
  in a little bit um on Small and
• 40:16
  medium enterprises between russia and china and what
• 40:20
  they're doing and I hope to get to
• 40:22
  that story here today but but let's talk
• 40:24
  about the uh The it wouldn't have happened
• 40:27
  part, you know the trump thing So what's
• 40:31
  the cleanest way to handle trump's claim say
• 40:34
  what it is and what it isn't it's
• 40:36
  a counterfact He has said it since february
• 40:40
  of 2022 To And counterfacts are politics not
• 40:45
  proof.
• 40:45
  It isn't a settled truth on top of
• 40:47
  that fact checkers and analysts repeatedly push back
• 40:52
  saying that he also mixes in history about
• 40:56
  how the 2022 Uh What do you call
• 41:02
  it increase in hostilities unfolded The lowey institute's
• 41:08
  take even if trump wants a quick end
• 41:10
  the war's logic and his image management Could
• 41:15
  pull him in opposite directions.
• 41:17
  We've been seeing that since he took offices
• 41:20
  office this year and that is Unfortunate but
• 41:25
  true.
• 41:25
  I think he does want this war to
• 41:28
  go away.
• 41:29
  I think he wants to Because he's always
• 41:32
  saying it that this really isn't um My
• 41:37
  war I think it is now was my
• 41:40
  point of view But orban insists that there's
• 41:43
  no question The war wouldn't have happened under
• 41:47
  trump, but I say That he's saying that
• 41:50
  Or said it here in particular in an
• 41:54
  effort to get you know to uh Yank
• 41:57
  the chain of the old trumpster to get
• 42:00
  the relief The exemption that he was seeking
• 42:06
  now, that's my own personal belief that's not
• 42:08
  evidence, of course, but uh Voters get to
• 42:11
  say, you know the strength and deterrence and
• 42:13
  all of that of the old trumpster um
• 42:16
  Really?
• 42:17
  It wasn't going to be his it wasn't
• 42:19
  his war.
• 42:20
  I I happen to agree with that I
• 42:22
  really do but whether orban believes in that
• 42:25
  or not.
• 42:26
  I don't know orban says it but I
• 42:28
  think it's convenient to say it when you're
• 42:31
  here asking for um, Asking for an exemption
• 42:35
  so you can keep your russian pipelines.
• 42:39
  Um, and You know flowing right?
• 42:44
  Let's talk about price cap price caps revenues
• 42:47
  and sanctions and all of that so This
• 42:52
  is a Theological debate, but what do we
• 42:55
  know about this?
• 42:56
  Modeling says a tougher cap thirty dollars a
• 43:00
  barrel Would have shaved russian revenues by forty
• 43:03
  percent Since 2022 that I forget what the
• 43:07
  what the cap is.
• 43:08
  They put it on.
• 43:09
  I think it was forty five dollars a
• 43:10
  barrel But if they'd put it down to
• 43:13
  thirty that would have you know, squeezed him
• 43:15
  even more But the argument is behind behind
• 43:18
  tightening enforcement and closing shipping loopholes, but brussels
• 43:22
  now Is explicitly trying to block backdoor refined
• 43:26
  products made from russian crude outside the eu
• 43:30
  to close off One of these messy sanctions
• 43:34
  don't work things skeptics say caps are leaky
• 43:37
  and raise global Shipping and insurance risk without
• 43:40
  ending the war.
• 43:41
  It's not Obviously, it's not ending the war
• 43:44
  and I don't think any of this is
• 43:46
  going to end the war So it's just
• 43:48
  incrementalism leaks get patched trade routes adapt and
• 43:52
  revenues Continue they might go down a little
• 43:56
  bit, but it's a cumulative game.
• 43:57
  You know, it's not a knockout punch to
• 43:59
  to say.
• 44:00
  Oh gee You can't buy russian oil, especially
• 44:03
  when china's buying the bulk of it Or
• 44:06
  other places that that the u.s. Cannot
• 44:08
  control You don't have to like orban to
• 44:12
  understand his math is the short story the
• 44:15
  imf data cited by reuters in 2024 hungary
• 44:19
  bought 74 percent of its gas and 86
• 44:23
  percent of its oil from russia Budapest argues
• 44:28
  that an eu wide natural gas cutoff Would
• 44:32
  knock four percent off of its gdp In
• 44:35
  a small landlocked economy with older refineries um
• 44:39
  tuned to euro crude That isn't pod posturing.
• 44:44
  That's like reality.
• 44:46
  That's budgets.
• 44:47
  That's unemployment so the waiver Had to be
• 44:51
  pursued and it said, you know And getting
• 44:54
  that waiver had gave orban a definite domestic
• 44:57
  political payoff right um What has been happening
• 45:05
  is markets can shift more crude to non
• 45:07
  -russian grades over time if a pipeline capacity
• 45:10
  from croatia's Adriatic route is expanded but over
• 45:15
  time.
• 45:15
  It doesn't mean tomorrow And most of this
• 45:20
  is replaceable If drushba dries up, that's a
• 45:24
  big freaking if and so russia Gave i'm
• 45:29
  russia, washington gave the waiver on the russian
• 45:32
  gas I mean oil and crude because it
• 45:36
  needed to so i'm, not so sure if
• 45:40
  um I mean, this is pretty it's plain
• 45:44
  that orban got what he wanted, right?
• 45:46
  He got space to keep russian barrels flowing.
• 45:48
  He gets to play peacemaker Europe isn't a
• 45:51
  u.s. Puppet.
• 45:52
  Um, it turns out with its own security
• 45:55
  memory memory in its own timetable But u
• 45:58
  .s. Sanctions do matter and brussels use them
• 46:02
  when it suits them, but most time they
• 46:04
  don't bother so Saying it wouldn't have happened
• 46:08
  or would have happened.
• 46:10
  It doesn't really matter in this sphere is
• 46:13
  what i'm saying and uh europe is Is
• 46:17
  weaning itself off russian energy?
• 46:21
  messily imperfective Imperfectively or imperfectly and slower than
• 46:27
  twitter You know would like you to believe
• 46:31
  Hungry is the exception that is turning out
• 46:34
  to be the rule Dependence gives you some
• 46:37
  leverage if you don't like that build more
• 46:39
  pipes You know the terminals of storage generating
• 46:42
  capacity that makes waivers unnecessary but until that
• 46:46
  time politics has to file follow where the
• 46:50
  where the barrel leads I believe um I
• 46:56
  wanted to get into a couple of stories.
• 46:59
  Um from the War front.
• 47:06
  Let's go to I wanted to get to
• 47:09
  because there was a story today about 25
• 47:16
  um surrender victims in pokrovsk Let's uh get
• 47:24
  a look at this if we can Um,
• 47:28
  let's see here Pokrovsk and myrnograd is where
• 47:34
  we are going to go.
• 47:38
  Let's see If you want to know how
• 47:43
  War is going stop listening at the political
• 47:46
  podiums and start watching what's going on in
• 47:50
  the logistics That's why I watch every day
• 47:52
  these Not every day but several times a
• 47:55
  week these mappers um, especially in myrnograd pokrovsk
• 48:01
  region, um the soviet air names for those
• 48:04
  places where Dmitrov and krasnaromysk And the math
• 48:09
  is turning pretty freaking brutal russian electronic warfare
• 48:15
  today Found a ukrainian marine detachment near myrnograd
• 48:22
  Their drones did convincing flights over And according
• 48:27
  to multiple russian reports with videos, which I
• 48:31
  watched 25-ish men from ukraine's 38th marine
• 48:36
  brigade laid down their weapons and chose to
• 48:39
  live Western outlets aren't paying attention to that
• 48:44
  hardly at all They certainly haven't verified the
• 48:48
  exact head count yet Nobody wants to talk
• 48:51
  about this, but the pattern is pretty clear
• 48:53
  when you're cut off low on batteries food,
• 48:58
  um and and uh Ammunition the front line
• 49:02
  is a trap.
• 49:03
  It's not a post.
• 49:04
  So let's situate the map Myrnograd Dmitrov sits
• 49:10
  just east of pokrovsk krasnaromysk It's not just
• 49:14
  another dot on the map.
• 49:16
  It's the eastern hinge of the defensive belt
• 49:18
  Kyiv has tried to keep intact so pokrovsk
• 49:22
  doesn't collapse from the flanks even western wires
• 49:26
  are now conceding that russia has enveloped myrnograd
• 49:29
  and From most of the sides and is
• 49:32
  grinding through pokrovsk block by block.
• 49:35
  Kyiv denies this encirclement but language has shifted
• 49:39
  from Stabilized to difficult and fluid Exactly the
• 49:46
  type of weaselly words you want to hear
• 49:48
  when there are no supply routes and people
• 49:51
  are dying the propaganda war is pretty noisy
• 49:55
  as usual, but the footage Is pretty loud
• 50:02
  Russian troops moving through the fog in what
• 50:05
  western out light outlets dub Mad max style
• 50:09
  visuals Open top vehicles strip doors and assaults
• 50:14
  that look improvised, but keep on coming reuters
• 50:18
  verified clips and broadcast packages now show exactly
• 50:22
  the kind of dirty urban fighting that chews
• 50:25
  through Infantry with russia pushing and pushing a
• 50:30
  pincer move while ukraine throws in so-called
• 50:35
  elite units To hold its shrinking perimeter al
• 50:40
  -jazeera Not exactly a kremlin mouthpiece by any
• 50:44
  measure asks whether the fall of pokrovsk is
• 50:47
  a matter of time And I say it
• 50:51
  is and has been for a little while,
• 50:53
  but when al-jazeera writes that headline That
• 50:56
  isn't russian spin.
• 50:58
  Okay, that's uh That's a real story So
• 51:02
  back to the surrender several russian outlets report
• 51:06
  that 25 marines from the 38th brigade capitulated
• 51:12
  near mir nagrad demitrov Some saying that's the
• 51:16
  largest single surrender since mariupol lenta and and
• 51:20
  ura ru Point to a video posted by
• 51:24
  war correspondents vz.
• 51:27
  Ru attributes confirmation to the dpr.
• 51:30
  Um Militia channel now folded into russia's first
• 51:34
  army corps Could this number be inflated always
• 51:37
  possible, but I watched the video it looks
• 51:39
  like It looks accurate to me But even
• 51:43
  cautious russian analysts over the weekend said that
• 51:46
  isolated surrenders starting in this exact pocket That
• 51:51
  just keep getting larger and larger and the
• 51:54
  operation will tell you don't get clusters of
• 51:57
  surrender Unless command has lost control of resupply
• 52:02
  and extraction which is what my military summary
• 52:06
  guy has been saying for A week plus
• 52:11
  10 days maybe you know, that's Logistics, you
• 52:15
  know, it's just logistics ukrainian channels are using
• 52:19
  their own video You know, they won't pay
• 52:22
  any attention to any sort of russian video.
• 52:24
  They put their own video Strike videos from
• 52:28
  the same 38th brigade showing drones hitting russian
• 52:31
  fortifications in myrnagrad's outskirts last month And navy
• 52:36
  aerial showing the town pounded into rubble not
• 52:39
  a building left intact These aren't staged audio
• 52:43
  reels, but they are old and they're the
• 52:45
  familiar misery of industrial firepower They support the
• 52:49
  core point that both sides are fighting hard,
• 52:52
  but the ground around myrnagrad is becoming unlivable
• 52:56
  And especially for units that can't be rotated
• 52:59
  out fed or re-armed.
• 53:01
  That's the entire ukraine Grouping that is there
• 53:07
  So what do the west's most ukraine sympathetic
• 53:12
  trackers say about all this the institute for
• 53:15
  the study of war hardly, moscow-friendly also
• 53:20
  Notes that russian routes into myrnagrad and ongoing
• 53:24
  advances towards southern pokrovsk are a reality institute
• 53:29
  war language is careful but Interdicting logistics is
• 53:37
  strategist talk For the beginning of the end,
• 53:42
  right?
• 53:42
  This is this is it reuters line for
• 53:44
  a week has been pretty consistent russia is
• 53:47
  going house to house And tightening the noose
• 53:52
  ukrainians acknowledge a difficult position vow that there's
• 53:56
  no full encirclement, but I believe there is
• 53:59
  they've been showing the same thing forever.
• 54:02
  Russia has asked people to go and check
• 54:04
  it out Angelina joe lee went over there,
• 54:09
  but not for this, you know, she wasn't
• 54:10
  going to go to this war-torn area
• 54:12
  But she she that's why she was over
• 54:14
  there.
• 54:14
  I could finish up on that story some
• 54:16
  more tonight, too But the ap adds that
• 54:18
  russia holds a large share of the city
• 54:21
  already Both sides are fighting within some of
• 54:25
  the same buildings This is late stage urban
• 54:28
  reduction and russia wants to get it done
• 54:31
  Before real winter hits and it's pretty getting
• 54:34
  closer all the time.
• 54:36
  So is pokrovsk doomed.
• 54:37
  Is it russian?
• 54:38
  Already, is it going to go back to
• 54:40
  be?
• 54:43
  Renamed It's not inevitable, but strategic is reality
• 54:48
  is ugly for kiev russia has shifted to
• 54:51
  the constriction of the supply lines it excels
• 54:56
  at Its drones are blinding and harassing the
• 55:00
  electronic warfare is turning ukrainian Comms into nothing
• 55:07
  but noise their artillery which is still quite
• 55:10
  strong and plenty of artillery there certainly outshines
• 55:15
  anything the the Ukrainians have on their side
• 55:21
  And so small unit infantry Going forward after
• 55:25
  all this chaos is far more Uh regular
• 55:29
  from the russian side And so the second
• 55:32
  thing to look at is the corridor calculus
• 55:35
  what looks worse worse each day for kiev
• 55:39
  the longer kiev stays inside these pulverized blocks
• 55:44
  The more it bleeds the specialized troops.
• 55:47
  It cannot replace and so It might buy
• 55:52
  some time for them at a horrible exchange
• 55:55
  rate Even non-aligned outlets say that russia
• 55:58
  is nearing a full envelopment Kilometers from the
• 56:02
  last usable lanes to get out.
• 56:04
  You can call that operational pause if you'd
• 56:07
  like But the infantry would call it we
• 56:09
  can't get out And I believe that to
• 56:13
  be the case that they can't get out
• 56:15
  and i've been following this for a good
• 56:17
  long time And what about the politics kiev
• 56:20
  insists that the situation is controlled because politically
• 56:24
  it has to Morale at home and leveraged
• 56:27
  abroad depend upon them politically Stating that Propaganda,
• 56:35
  you know multiple western outlets already report that
• 56:38
  200 to 300 russian Assault troops are inside
• 56:42
  the urban zone and that number is growing
• 56:44
  That number isn't decisive all by itself, but
• 56:47
  it's just growing and growing and growing The
• 56:49
  question is whether russia can keep their corridors
• 56:51
  open While collapsing kiev's and I think that's
• 56:55
  been the slow churn of the last jesus
• 57:00
  six months at least and so The evidence
• 57:04
  points one way even al jazeera daily concedes
• 57:09
  that momentum and flags Of you know show
• 57:13
  myrnagrodd as surrounded that is not rt.
• 57:17
  That isn't tass That's doha reading the same
• 57:21
  map you and I are reading that's al
• 57:23
  jazeera So let's talk about the 25 soldiers.
• 57:27
  Does it matter?
• 57:29
  Does it matter if the exact count is
• 57:32
  23 I don't know.
• 57:34
  Does it matter if it's 27?
• 57:36
  Not really what matters is that this kind
• 57:38
  of surrender?
• 57:41
  Is consistent with an attrition profile where your
• 57:44
  battalion headquarters Can't move medics can't move ammo
• 57:48
  can't move food Can't move you if you're
• 57:52
  one of the soldiers in there.
• 57:53
  It also matter matters symbolically The 38th is
• 57:58
  a marine brigade that kiev has showcased in
• 58:01
  its own media for successful drone attacks Seeing
• 58:08
  a slice of that same unit walk out
• 58:11
  hands up Is a propaganda um hit That
• 58:19
  ripples through the news and through the front
• 58:22
  especially a front Where the defenders know there's
• 58:26
  no clean rear area to fall back to
• 58:29
  because there isn't They are surrounded the final
• 58:34
  truth Said without varnish if you know, i'm
• 58:38
  telling you this is this is what I
• 58:41
  believe If kiev can't reopen and they've been
• 58:44
  trying to reopen a corridor into myrnogrodd and
• 58:49
  Attempt to unglue russia's pokrovsk Encirclement fast More
• 58:58
  groups you'll be seeing more of this in
• 59:00
  the next few days in the next week
• 59:03
  um, you'll see the These soldiers will engage
• 59:08
  in the same Calculus that the 25 ish
• 59:12
  that surrendered did physics will Beats the politics.
• 59:17
  That's why russia keeps using the word cauldron
• 59:22
  They say it's a cauldron they and they've
• 59:24
  been become masters of this all through the
• 59:28
  war You hear about these cauldrons and then
• 59:31
  they put a lid on them and they
• 59:33
  leave no way for them to escape And
• 59:36
  this this they end up dying or surrendering
• 59:39
  And they've been saying this for a good
• 59:42
  long time.
• 59:43
  You don't have to like the source Coming
• 59:46
  from the russian side, I mean to accept
• 59:48
  how mathematics works A cauldron is only pop
• 59:53
  propaganda If you can drive through it But
• 59:58
  they can't and they don't have any vehicles
• 1:00:01
  left to drive through it anyway but uh,
• 1:00:04
  so the the Politics in the i'm sorry.
• 1:00:07
  The reality says something different than the The
• 1:00:10
  politics will say that's what I would say
• 1:00:13
  um I wanted to go a little bit
• 1:00:16
  and and that's enough of the of the
• 1:00:18
  the frontline news right now And it's pretty
• 1:00:20
  tough out there for them.
• 1:00:22
  I wanted to go a little bit further
• 1:00:24
  into um These small and medium enterprises so
• 1:00:32
  november 23 to 25th there's going to be
• 1:00:36
  a Kind of a conference.
• 1:00:41
  I guess you would call it about small
• 1:00:43
  and medium enterprises between russia and china and
• 1:00:49
  so if you want to see where de
• 1:00:52
  -dollarization Stops being a debate and starts looking
• 1:00:58
  like real paperwork real transfers of money and
• 1:01:05
  sign po's Skip the huge talks the macro
• 1:01:11
  talks and look at the city called jian
• 1:01:16
  In in china, and I hope I pronounced
• 1:01:18
  that right later this month from november 23
• 1:01:21
  to 25 The city is going to host
• 1:01:25
  the sixth annual russia china small median enterprise
• 1:01:30
  forum backed by the shang Shang xi I
• 1:01:36
  can't say it right provincial government china's foreign
• 1:01:39
  ministry and the russian embassy Plus there will
• 1:01:43
  be a familiar ecosystem of business groups on
• 1:01:46
  both sides the russian chinese committee of friendship
• 1:01:50
  peace and development opori russia Uh de la
• 1:01:54
  via russia, that's business russia and ross congress
• 1:01:57
  that isn't think tank panel.
• 1:02:00
  It's a business to business Grouping that if
• 1:02:05
  you're serious about trade without a dollar This
• 1:02:08
  is a big deal So the focus is
• 1:02:11
  pretty practical organizers say that five hundred to
• 1:02:15
  a thousand business participants will go through this
• 1:02:19
  sector these sectors agriculture real estate investment tourism
• 1:02:26
  russia chinese trade Matchmakers of business to business
• 1:02:31
  and site visits to places where the deals
• 1:02:34
  actually take place the dry port the yangling
• 1:02:39
  agricultural high-tech zone And the byd complex
• 1:02:42
  that has become one of the planet's most
• 1:02:45
  productive ev plans In other words the forum
• 1:02:50
  isn't selling geopolitics it's selling ways to get
• 1:02:55
  shipments cleared and invoices paid without tripping over
• 1:03:00
  sanctions Why this city?
• 1:03:03
  Because geography is driving the strategy.
• 1:03:06
  It's not just an ancient capital And silk
• 1:03:09
  road postcard city.
• 1:03:11
  It's china's largest inland dry port It's a
• 1:03:15
  rail gateway That forms a massive share of
• 1:03:19
  china eu container traffic if you're trying to
• 1:03:24
  normalize Non-dollar trade flow between russia and
• 1:03:29
  china You go where trains customs bonded warehouses
• 1:03:34
  already know how?
• 1:03:37
  to engage So this city fits that bill
• 1:03:42
  the international trade and logistics park and its
• 1:03:45
  dry port operations anchor Create a corridor that
• 1:03:50
  central asia asia and even kazakhstan market as
• 1:03:53
  a time saver to europe That matters, you
• 1:03:57
  know, it's a big deal.
• 1:03:58
  Um, I wanted to do a little bit
• 1:04:00
  of a sideline here when I went to
• 1:04:05
  Um Kyrgyzstan Two years ago Was that two
• 1:04:13
  years ago or three?
• 1:04:14
  I think it was only two years ago
• 1:04:16
  I spent probably six weeks over there and
• 1:04:21
  uh two of that I spent in bishkek,
• 1:04:24
  which is the capital of uh, Kyrgyzstan and
• 1:04:28
  Actually, it was longer than that because I
• 1:04:30
  did like 10 days on the front end
• 1:04:32
  and 10 days on the back end And
• 1:04:33
  then I spent two weeks in uzbekistan two
• 1:04:36
  weeks in kazakhstan in between there And one
• 1:04:40
  of my favorite places that I made sure
• 1:04:41
  to go to several times um in bishkek,
• 1:04:46
  and I loved walking around down there, it's
• 1:04:48
  a it's a A cool city, you know,
• 1:04:52
  and there's a plenty of of new development
• 1:04:55
  going on tons of shopping tons of purchasing
• 1:04:58
  tons of new things well There's an entire
• 1:05:05
  Well, I don't know what what else to
• 1:05:07
  call it a section of the city That's
• 1:05:10
  called uh der doi And I don't know
• 1:05:14
  what that stands for whatever the name is.
• 1:05:16
  I really don't know.
• 1:05:17
  It's not russian that i'm aware of but
• 1:05:19
  der doi is where containers there are it's
• 1:05:24
  like I don't know hundreds of acres I
• 1:05:29
  mean, it's huge.
• 1:05:30
  It's a whole section of the city.
• 1:05:32
  That is all of these.
• 1:05:34
  Um containers that get And this place there's
• 1:05:41
  no water, you know, there's no ocean that
• 1:05:44
  you're going to get to these are all
• 1:05:45
  coming by rail And they come these containers
• 1:05:49
  and they swap them out on a regular
• 1:05:52
  basis.
• 1:05:53
  You have a big train yard nearby and
• 1:05:55
  it um They Open the containers whether on
• 1:06:01
  the end or on the side They have
• 1:06:02
  some that the sides lift up And you
• 1:06:05
  can turn them into you can put big
• 1:06:07
  poles underneath them and you turn them into
• 1:06:09
  these little mini shops all day long And
• 1:06:11
  then they close them up and lock them
• 1:06:13
  up at night and everybody goes home and
• 1:06:15
  you know, that's that but these things are
• 1:06:18
  enormous sorts of flea markets We would call
• 1:06:23
  them here, but this this is a regular
• 1:06:25
  market instead of having a storefront You got
• 1:06:27
  a container front.
• 1:06:29
  That would be really cool to do something
• 1:06:30
  like that here And so they bring in
• 1:06:33
  all these all these goods from china And
• 1:06:37
  they're all over Kirghizia is in bishkek in
• 1:06:43
  this place called der doi and so you
• 1:06:46
  can shop and you can open them up
• 1:06:47
  and They have everything in there anything you
• 1:06:51
  could want, you know containers full of vacuum
• 1:06:55
  cleaners luggage refrigerators sterile equipment Candy clothing.
• 1:07:02
  I mean anything and they have section after
• 1:07:05
  section after section where there's you know 20
• 1:07:09
  containers in a row of various vendors standing
• 1:07:12
  there selling uh various types of furniture and
• 1:07:16
  there's an another 20 that is full the
• 1:07:19
  lighting section was freaking Incredible and you could
• 1:07:23
  go you you could walk Three quarters of
• 1:07:26
  a mile and see so many different kinds
• 1:07:30
  of lights and all for so cheap I
• 1:07:33
  wanted to bring a bunch of that stuff
• 1:07:34
  home and what a way to shop if
• 1:07:38
  you if you bought a house in Um
• 1:07:41
  bishkek which was tempting because you could buy
• 1:07:45
  a cool three four bedroom house for 30
• 1:07:49
  grand and uh Surrounded with a complete set
• 1:07:53
  of a six eight foot walls around it.
• 1:07:56
  You know that Screen your yard from anybody
• 1:07:58
  else um nice garage, uh, cool cool pretty
• 1:08:03
  cool place, right and If you are if
• 1:08:07
  you want to live well Take your money
• 1:08:11
  from here go to bishkek you can travel
• 1:08:14
  from anywhere there and go all Over asia
• 1:08:17
  and anywhere else for for really really cheap
• 1:08:20
  and you could live in Bishkek, which is
• 1:08:23
  a cool town.
• 1:08:23
  Anyway, the food is fantastic And the people
• 1:08:26
  are great, of course I have an advantage
• 1:08:29
  because I speak russian and most of the
• 1:08:30
  people there speak russian as well And so
• 1:08:33
  when you watch and you see some of
• 1:08:36
  these things of what they are doing over
• 1:08:38
  there and the trade corridors that they're opening
• 1:08:41
  and then you notice And I noticed this,
• 1:08:46
  you know, this was this is what you
• 1:08:48
  know what this was the year before the
• 1:08:51
  bricks conference and this is part of the
• 1:08:54
  the the Pathway that got me interested in
• 1:08:58
  bricks and in what they were talking because
• 1:09:01
  I I spoke to a lot of people
• 1:09:02
  over there and and I enjoyed Uh the
• 1:09:05
  conversations that I had with with some of
• 1:09:08
  these small business owners And they're basically buying
• 1:09:11
  these containers and bringing them over and they
• 1:09:14
  sell it all straight out of there and
• 1:09:15
  they're they're getting Cash and I asked well,
• 1:09:19
  how do you get the containers out of
• 1:09:21
  china and get them over here?
• 1:09:22
  They said well, you would just go over
• 1:09:23
  to china and you buy them you go
• 1:09:25
  to the place where they're actually putting out
• 1:09:28
  the Lighting and you go and you say
• 1:09:31
  oh just give me a lighting a very
• 1:09:33
  a container full of various uh lighting Send
• 1:09:39
  it over here Send it over to bishkek
• 1:09:41
  and i'll uh, just put it in this
• 1:09:43
  uh, dir doy place open up the sides
• 1:09:46
  and you know People will come here Thousands
• 1:09:48
  of people there every day.
• 1:09:50
  I I just liked wandering around in there.
• 1:09:52
  It was fantastic Anyway, I don't know if
• 1:09:56
  that's a good way to do business around
• 1:09:57
  here Clearly it's not but here we just
• 1:10:00
  buy everything on amazon over there.
• 1:10:02
  Amazon is Der doy actually have something called
• 1:10:06
  wild berries over there.
• 1:10:08
  It's uh instead of amazon It's wild berries
• 1:10:10
  and they have the same sort of concept,
• 1:10:11
  but you know what they do different over
• 1:10:13
  there wild berries Actually has stores everywhere and
• 1:10:17
  they're not really stores all they are shipping
• 1:10:20
  centers so that there you uh have the
• 1:10:24
  shipment come not to your house through fedex
• 1:10:27
  or through um the u.s. Postal service
• 1:10:30
  or through uh, uh, ups, it comes through
• 1:10:34
  um this wild berry store so you order
• 1:10:37
  whatever it is you're going to order a
• 1:10:39
  stroller a Refrigerator a whatever and it gets
• 1:10:43
  delivered to the local wild berry store you
• 1:10:46
  order it the same way you pay for
• 1:10:47
  it the same Way, but you go pick
• 1:10:49
  it up At the local wild berries and
• 1:10:52
  these wild berries are everywhere.
• 1:10:54
  So they're within You know walking distance Easily
• 1:10:58
  of anywhere that you are in a russian
• 1:11:01
  city.
• 1:11:01
  You can go to a wild berries So
• 1:11:03
  it's kind of a it's the same thing
• 1:11:05
  only different and here we have here.
• 1:11:08
  It's all shipped straight to your house For
• 1:11:10
  logistics heavy here, but cheaper over there because
• 1:11:13
  you go pick it up yourself Anyway, I
• 1:11:15
  kind of got distracted from where I was
• 1:11:17
  going on this small topic of uh these
• 1:11:21
  Small and medium enterprises from russia, but this
• 1:11:25
  is how they're gonna be sanctions.
• 1:11:26
  This is how they get around It's not
• 1:11:33
  necessarily De-dollarization, but they're not paying with
• 1:11:36
  a dollar You know, they're they're going into
• 1:11:38
  china and they're paying with the ruble Or
• 1:11:41
  they're paying with the yuan which they trade
• 1:11:43
  the ruble for the yuan and they do
• 1:11:44
  the same thing And they're the the russia
• 1:11:48
  russia kirky kyrgyzstan uzbekistan kazakhstan all the stands
• 1:11:54
  over there including georgia everywhere like that most
• 1:11:56
  of them are Um About Between 60 and
• 1:12:04
  90 to 95 percent of trade is done
• 1:12:10
  in the yuan or The ruble not the
• 1:12:14
  dollar and so the subject matter Subject matter
• 1:12:18
  expert that's also sme but this is small
• 1:12:21
  and medium enterprises It's a practical sort of
• 1:12:26
  thing, um, you know, like I said, there's
• 1:12:29
  500 to a thousand companies that are going
• 1:12:32
  to be there that are that are tracking
• 1:12:34
  all of this.
• 1:12:34
  Um, so the the core tension of all
• 1:12:40
  of this is payments russia china trade hit
• 1:12:44
  record territory in 2024 Roughly 1.74 trillion
• 1:12:52
  yuan by chinese customs and growing growing growing
• 1:12:57
  in 2025 And uh, especially while u.s.
• 1:13:02
  Secondary sanctions pressure Is spooking major banks?
• 1:13:06
  so the reality is That they're building And
• 1:13:10
  designing routes around the dollar and around swift
• 1:13:15
  banking and they're building redundant rails so that
• 1:13:18
  small and medium enterprises can settle even when
• 1:13:22
  The dollar or bigger players or the euro
• 1:13:25
  freezes so beijing is already pushing this policy
• 1:13:28
  and They've told state firms to prioritize the
• 1:13:32
  yuan and overseas businesses and they're pledging to
• 1:13:35
  strengthen their sips system the uh I believe
• 1:13:39
  it's called the The china international payment system,
• 1:13:44
  I believe is what that means I can't
• 1:13:45
  remember the exact acronym, but i'm pretty sure
• 1:13:47
  that's it And china's inner banking system cross
• 1:13:50
  -border exchanges and uh closing and settlement western
• 1:13:56
  banks are adapting to HSBC hong kong joined
• 1:14:03
  china's international bank system as a direct participant
• 1:14:08
  last year Now that doesn't kill the dollar
• 1:14:13
  But it gives buyers and sellers options when
• 1:14:16
  the dollar can't or won't move and on
• 1:14:20
  the russian side The shift has been you
• 1:14:23
  know pretty big The yuan is now russia's
• 1:14:26
  top foreign currency and the ruble yuan is
• 1:14:29
  the workhorse on the moscow exchange by mid
• 1:14:33
  2025 even skeptical western wires were noting that
• 1:14:37
  about 95 percent Of russia china trade was
• 1:14:42
  being invoiced in your ruble or the yuan
• 1:14:44
  And moscow's finance ministry actively sells yuan to
• 1:14:48
  steady the ruble and the central bank is
• 1:14:51
  running Iran swaps to keep liquidity Uh, it's
• 1:14:54
  improvisation, right?
• 1:14:56
  It's but I say Even worse it's Institutionalization,
• 1:15:01
  it's institutionalized habit and the habits are hard
• 1:15:06
  to sanction and by the way They're not
• 1:15:10
  going to come back to the dollar That
• 1:15:12
  ain't happening.
• 1:15:13
  And I think china long term is going
• 1:15:16
  that way, too so nobody trusts What we
• 1:15:23
  do with the dollar sanctions sanctions Sanctions we
• 1:15:29
  sanction people.
• 1:15:30
  Oh, geez, you can't use our system and
• 1:15:32
  you want to be and it's going to
• 1:15:33
  take a while for it To get there.
• 1:15:34
  No doubt but uh, and it might be
• 1:15:37
  slower than I think but the more they
• 1:15:40
  do it the quicker The more they push
• 1:15:44
  sanctions, I mean the quicker this is going
• 1:15:46
  to happen so Um, let's talk about this.
• 1:15:50
  There's a political Um element to this too
• 1:15:53
  boris teeth of moscow's business Uh representative has
• 1:15:57
  been openly talking about beijing's quiet rollout of
• 1:16:02
  digital cross-border swapping as an alternative to
• 1:16:07
  swift less pr splash more incremental buildings china's
• 1:16:13
  sips meanwhile still intersects with swift for messaging
• 1:16:18
  in many cases cases, but beijing Is explicit
• 1:16:22
  about scaling it down Western coverage is admitting
• 1:16:26
  obvious, you know, the obvious sips is smaller
• 1:16:30
  But it's growing All over the place and
• 1:16:33
  especially in russia's orbit Mostly because sanctions is
• 1:16:38
  forcing that question.
• 1:16:39
  That's exactly why forums like this one in
• 1:16:43
  jian matter They translate these alternatives into someone's
• 1:16:48
  receivables actually getting paid so let's look at
• 1:16:53
  a a bit of a reality check, um
• 1:16:56
  chinese exports to russia have been slipping And
• 1:17:02
  banks are being wary of us penalties but
• 1:17:06
  the split Energy imports from russia have held
• 1:17:09
  up even better and when bank-to-bank
• 1:17:12
  transfers jam up digital and platform Settlements have
• 1:17:15
  bridged the gap for smaller orders So the
• 1:17:19
  point isn't that the road is smooth because
• 1:17:21
  it's not The point is that the alternative
• 1:17:24
  road exists and it's getting I don't know
• 1:17:29
  what rebuilt if you want to call it
• 1:17:31
  that in the yuan and the ruble not
• 1:17:34
  just dollars or euros so What exactly are
• 1:17:38
  these?
• 1:17:39
  small and medium enterprises doing the agenda leans
• 1:17:43
  into how to how to localize products according
• 1:17:50
  to international standards how to create the paperwork
• 1:17:55
  to get paid for these proper invoicing how
• 1:17:59
  to use cips interchange systems instead of swift
• 1:18:06
  how to find insurance for these overland corridors
• 1:18:10
  between places like dir doi and And you
• 1:18:14
  know shanghai.
• 1:18:15
  How do you do that?
• 1:18:16
  How do these dry port briefings teach you
• 1:18:19
  how to price rail versus doing it by
• 1:18:22
  sea So what they're showing you is where
• 1:18:25
  chinese agricultural demand is actually headed and how
• 1:18:30
  you can Meet specs russia media says the
• 1:18:33
  aim is even more blunt.
• 1:18:35
  How how find out means Determine how to
• 1:18:41
  Um exit dollar dependence and that's not just
• 1:18:46
  a slogan, I mean, it's It's procurement.
• 1:18:50
  This is how it's going to work.
• 1:18:51
  Does this mean the dollar dies?
• 1:18:53
  No I mean, it's It's not I I
• 1:18:58
  say that I try to you know hedge
• 1:18:59
  the bets on that myself.
• 1:19:01
  No friend of washington's finances Hegemony has been
• 1:19:05
  clear that the dollar's thrown, you know, it's
• 1:19:07
  not going to collapse tomorrow But the combination
• 1:19:10
  of policy nudges toward beijing behavioral shifts from
• 1:19:15
  moscow and others and logistics hubs and Infrastructure
• 1:19:21
  like i've been talking about for months Create
• 1:19:25
  a daily Alternative that chips away at dollar
• 1:19:31
  and western dominance Why if you're going to
• 1:19:35
  ship something from china to moscow And you
• 1:19:40
  don't have to go through a shipping port
• 1:19:42
  that goes around the globe somewhere, but you
• 1:19:45
  can go by rail Why would you pay
• 1:19:48
  that in dollars?
• 1:19:52
  You just wouldn't I mean, there's no doubt.
• 1:19:54
  Um It's the eurasian business continuity And and
• 1:19:59
  what they are doing in eurasia, which includes
• 1:20:03
  Kazakhstan saw a lot of chinese products all
• 1:20:06
  over that place um You know you pick
• 1:20:10
  them the containers are still rolling and the
• 1:20:13
  invoices are still clearing whether they're Uh, and
• 1:20:17
  and the bulk of them are now being
• 1:20:19
  paid in In yuan and or rubles instead
• 1:20:24
  of dollars or the rupee even let's go
• 1:20:27
  into india as well if you're listening from
• 1:20:29
  a western boardroom the unvarnished takeaway you can
• 1:20:33
  take from this is that You might not
• 1:20:35
  like any of this, but you don't have
• 1:20:37
  to but in a system Where hsbc one
• 1:20:42
  of the largest banks in the world?
• 1:20:45
  Can sit on the sips system as well
• 1:20:48
  as the swift system and do both where
• 1:20:52
  the um Where the uh Bank of china
• 1:20:57
  is leaning on state firms to settle In
• 1:21:01
  the in the yuan and where russia chinese
• 1:21:03
  trades are already clearing mostly in yuan and
• 1:21:07
  ruble and where india russia are exchanging in
• 1:21:11
  the rupee or the ruble the marginal deals
• 1:21:13
  that would have defaulted to the dollar in
• 1:21:16
  2019 are now defaulting to the yuan And
• 1:21:21
  these forums don't show up in grand strategy
• 1:21:24
  memos.
• 1:21:25
  They're showing up in the margins they're being
• 1:21:29
  reported by people like me And that is
• 1:21:33
  how uh systems change the habits change So
• 1:21:39
  my prediction without any hedging um this this
• 1:21:44
  Small and medium enterprise forum is going to
• 1:21:48
  lock in dozens maybe hundreds of mid-sized
• 1:21:51
  contracts over the next quarter Let not and
• 1:21:56
  that's not even I mean hundreds of them
• 1:21:59
  and i'm not talking the next year And
• 1:22:01
  most of which will be settled directly in
• 1:22:03
  the yuan A lot of it's going to
• 1:22:05
  be boring hoses fittings seed treatments Hvac boxes
• 1:22:10
  and and for hotels small Items not not
• 1:22:14
  huge stuff.
• 1:22:15
  Although there could be a lot of ev
• 1:22:17
  electronic vehicle stuff going on That's possible too,
• 1:22:20
  but these small deals are exactly the point
• 1:22:25
  This is how it becomes normal watch Rail
• 1:22:29
  manifests not press conferences and when the press
• 1:22:32
  conferences do happen Count how many times you
• 1:22:35
  hear the word dollar if that number keeps
• 1:22:38
  shrinking I believe you will know why?
• 1:22:42
  And I I think it's gonna happen, you
• 1:22:44
  know, it's um This is how it's gonna
• 1:22:48
  go, um Let's see, I think to finish
• 1:22:51
  out the show I have two potential topics
• 1:22:54
  i'm going to switch to uh, the reality
• 1:22:57
  of promises probation corruption um And nato talks.
• 1:23:03
  Okay, two different versions of nato talks and
• 1:23:05
  i'm going to shorten it up a little
• 1:23:06
  bit Because this part was a little bit
• 1:23:10
  A little bit longer, but i'm not sure
• 1:23:12
  I can get through it all.
• 1:23:13
  Let me see if I can Um brussels
• 1:23:17
  issued its latest progress check on ukrainian, uh
• 1:23:20
  eu um Hopes right and the message is
• 1:23:24
  the same song warm up words cold conditions
• 1:23:29
  You know warm.
• 1:23:31
  Oh, yeah, you will take you but cold
• 1:23:33
  conditions the commission's praise then they praise remarkable
• 1:23:37
  Commitment under wartime pressure, but then underline that
• 1:23:41
  what it talks about is non-negotiable I
• 1:23:45
  spoke to you last night about political meddling
• 1:23:48
  uh protecting independent anti-corruption agencies or proving
• 1:23:52
  that the rule of law isn't just a
• 1:23:54
  prop in Ukraine sadly it is that tone.
• 1:23:59
  These are not kremlin talking points This is
• 1:24:02
  the commission the eu commission their own language,
• 1:24:06
  you know that they are talking about let's
• 1:24:08
  Let's talk about this before uh, you know
• 1:24:11
  the spin the european council granted ukraine its
• 1:24:15
  status in june of 2022 negotiations opened in
• 1:24:19
  june of 2024 and screening the first screening
• 1:24:23
  wrapped up in september 2025 and now We're
• 1:24:27
  in the ritual where brussels, you know is
• 1:24:29
  going to grade the homework.
• 1:24:31
  None of that is in dispute What is
• 1:24:33
  in dispute is whether kiev is moving forward
• 1:24:36
  or backward?
• 1:24:37
  on the single issue brussels cares about the
• 1:24:41
  most Anti-corruption enforcement This summer was a
• 1:24:47
  tell in july 2025 ukrainian parliament passed in
• 1:24:51
  zelensky signed legislation tightening executive oversight over nabu
• 1:24:57
  national anti-corruption bureau And sapo the specialized
• 1:25:01
  anti-corruption prosecutor's office the move Generated all
• 1:25:05
  kinds of street protests.
• 1:25:07
  You remember me reporting about that and within
• 1:25:08
  days zelensky pushed a corrective bill To uphold
• 1:25:12
  their independence.
• 1:25:13
  It was classic You know kiev two-step
• 1:25:16
  first rattle the cage then promise you're gonna
• 1:25:18
  you know, we're just testing, you know Just
• 1:25:21
  make it brussels did notice and it went
• 1:25:23
  straight into this year's language.
• 1:25:25
  The commission literally says Preserve independence of anti
• 1:25:30
  -corruption institutes as a top-line to-do
• 1:25:33
  list for ukraine in the coming year meanwhile
• 1:25:37
  Even parliament members are saying that ukraine is
• 1:25:41
  nothing but corrupt western outlets are talking about
• 1:25:44
  this report Um, and they put it plainly
• 1:25:47
  progress.
• 1:25:48
  Sure despite concerns over corruption reuters draft is
• 1:25:52
  is flagging the commission's reference to negative trends
• 1:25:57
  and pressure on agencies you don't have to
• 1:26:00
  Uh, you know be a genius to read
• 1:26:03
  the subliminal text here The eu thinks that
• 1:26:07
  kiev has been testing how far it can
• 1:26:09
  lean on Anti-corruption without paying a bill
• 1:26:14
  without paying a price for it This year's
• 1:26:17
  message from the eu is not that far
• 1:26:20
  and the warning isn't just political theater To
• 1:26:25
  2025 reviews integrity anti-corruption review in may
• 1:26:29
  and then a fifth round follow-up approved
• 1:26:31
  in july are are just devastating and They
• 1:26:35
  recognize improvements under wartime strain, but drill down
• 1:26:40
  on the same stress agency independence prosecutorial follow
• 1:26:46
  -through and insulating investigators from political interference, which
• 1:26:50
  isn't happening in other words The technocrats agree
• 1:26:53
  with the headlines.
• 1:26:54
  There's a reform frame, but Ukraine isn't following
• 1:26:59
  it, you know, it's just not happening And
• 1:27:03
  kiev and kiev's uh answer is always familiar
• 1:27:06
  Yeah, we're on track.
• 1:27:08
  Zelensky talks about joining the eu before 2030
• 1:27:11
  points to screening that's completed, but he doesn't
• 1:27:15
  talk about what they've Said here you need
• 1:27:18
  to figure out your corruption because ukraine is
• 1:27:22
  the most corrupt country on the planet A
• 1:27:25
  lot of people think and it amplifies the
• 1:27:28
  positive lines, you know He's of course talking
• 1:27:30
  about the positive lines that plays well at
• 1:27:33
  home, but in brussels They're talking about recommendations
• 1:27:36
  not the applause preserve independence expand naboo jurisdiction
• 1:27:42
  introduce robust safeguards against interference and corruption prevent
• 1:27:47
  bypassing the prosecutor's office Exclusive power that's a
• 1:27:52
  to-do list that the commission put in
• 1:27:54
  black and white and candidates don't get In
• 1:27:57
  by tweeting compliments, they got to tick off
• 1:28:00
  those boxes.
• 1:28:01
  That's what's got to happen or they're not
• 1:28:03
  going to make it so From moscow's point
• 1:28:07
  of view.
• 1:28:07
  None of this is surprising from mine either
• 1:28:09
  The eu is talking about membership as motivation
• 1:28:12
  and then moves the goal post through alleged
• 1:28:15
  standards kiv chases carrots brussels Extend the stick
• 1:28:18
  that isn't conspiracy.
• 1:28:20
  That's how the club guards itself Uh forever
• 1:28:22
  and the russian line will be that the
• 1:28:24
  west uses the eu dream to keep ukraine
• 1:28:27
  at war just as nato promises were used
• 1:28:31
  you know, we're not going to go an
• 1:28:33
  inch to the east and then they were
• 1:28:34
  they were Yanked the carpet out from under
• 1:28:38
  them You don't have to accept the whole
• 1:28:39
  argument to see how the game plays out
• 1:28:41
  because it is consistent You know, they're using
• 1:28:45
  ukraine to battle russia and that's that You
• 1:28:49
  know if you need the receipts from uh,
• 1:28:52
  what's happening just jeez go back and look
• 1:28:54
  in the paper Does this mean that ukraine
• 1:28:57
  is never going to join?
• 1:28:58
  No, but it means the price is high
• 1:29:00
  because they are losing people There's you know
• 1:29:04
  No procedural tricks to you know Get them
• 1:29:09
  in there's not going to be anything there.
• 1:29:11
  These these are serious times I feel like
• 1:29:14
  i've been rattling my butt off on this
• 1:29:17
  Flapping my gums here And the time is
• 1:29:20
  a winding down.
• 1:29:22
  My name is samuel trap.
• 1:29:23
  This is international flavor I'm, very glad you
• 1:29:27
  joined me here today And I hope you
• 1:29:30
  do every night tomorrow is the biggest day
• 1:29:32
  in radio on damn radio lots of shows
• 1:29:35
  going in lots of people Uh chatting and
• 1:29:38
  giving their points of view on many many
• 1:29:41
  topics.
• 1:29:41
  You can listen to all of my shows
• 1:29:43
  at internationalflavor.com Or you can go to
• 1:29:47
  damn radio.com forward slash podcast and listen
• 1:29:49
  to me and everybody else on the station
• 1:29:52
  I appreciate you being here.
• 1:29:54
  Have a very good night damn radio