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The Favorites - NFL Coaching and The Masters with Kevin Clark · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: my BFF, professional Better, Simon Hunter Eero Simon.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, What a weekend we had?
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Huh, brother, listen, I know you're just rolling out of bed.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Were in You were in Atlantic City playing poker in
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: a tournament till all hours. I was in Florida, which
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I believe is the home state of our guest coming
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: up this weekend, at a wedding in Miami, and then
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: I went to Palm Beach for the day for a
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: project that I'm working on. In the wedding, this was
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: like right out of a commercial. This was a wedding.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: A lot of people like to gamble at this wedding,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: very high class affair in Miami, but it's a big
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: gambling crowd, really big gambling crowd. And at the wedding,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: of course, during the speeches and even when everyone was
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: dancing during dinner, there were four or five different phones
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: in between two different people showing first the Florida Auburn
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: game and then the Duke Houston game, and the number
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: of people sweating that total for the Duke Houston game,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: so many people had the under one thirty seven and
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: a half I think or over one thirty six and
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a half. It was landing right on that number. It
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: was super exciting.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: Now those are the best.
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: There's the best, especially where if you're in on it
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: and you hear loud moans across the crowd, you know
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: everyone's looking at the same thing. It has nothing to
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: do with the wedding. It's everyone just on theirs.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And there was this was There were a lot of
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: gambling UH industry people at this wedding, including at my
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: table were people representing I think three different sports books
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: as well as an original investor in action like when
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: it was just not even a company yet, and a
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: guy who runs a uh A venture fund that is
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: focused on the betting space. So everybody had very specific needs.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: It was. It was really really funny.
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I thought I was preactioning the whole markets crashing,
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: but all sports book stocks were up because Duke lost.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: So that was a pretty interesting tell of that. Uh,
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: that's how big of a deal it was for duke
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: to lose these sportsbooks and they some money off the
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: college basketool.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: That's right, and we guess what We enter into another
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: very special week for gamblers, an annual right of spring,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: a tradition unlike any other. And last night for the finals,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: we saw Jim Nantz as a fan of Houston getting
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: ready prime in his pipes for the Masters. It is
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Masters Week, Masters t He's off Thursday morning from Augusta,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: one of America's most hallowed sporting events, always one of
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: the best, most popular sporting events on the entire spring calendar,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: joining us to break it all down. He has become
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: one of the most familiar faces in modern sports media.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: You could say he's like the archetype for modern sports media,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: with the way he looks at sports, his focus on analytics,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: his focus on the athletes who come on his very
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: popular podcast, how He's morphed and evolved as a media personality.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: He's the host of the very popular show This Is Football.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: You'll see him all over ESPN airwaves, including on First
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Take later this week. He is also a very passionate
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: golf fan and appearing on ESPN's bet casts for Golf
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Kevin Clark, what an intro?
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: Thank you? Good right, thank you. I appreciate that. Yeah, no,
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: it's this is one of my favorite weeks of the year.
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: I like that and Chad, you and I've talked about this.
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: I love the golf gambling space. So the fact that
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: they get to go on this show. I'm going to
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: on ESPN Ben on Wednesday, Like I just everybody needs
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: to hear my bad takes. This needed to escape my
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: golf group chats and now we just need to break
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: contain and everybody has to hear it, including on some
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: of these broadcasts going forward.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to be ugly. There's no doubt about it,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: because there's no way when you're trying to pick from
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the field you've got a good shot at being right.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: The odds tell us that it's almost impossible. Like, sure,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: you can pick Scotti, Scheffler, you can piss pick Rory McElroy.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing likes. Scheffler's at plus four forty. Mceilroy is
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: at six to one, Moracas about Moricia is about fourteen
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: to one. D Shamboa is about fourteen to one. But
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: like those are the lame picks, and so we're going
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: to get to the good ones in the show. We're
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: also going to talk a lot of football. As a
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: reminder of the Favorites. Podcast is presented by Bet three
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: six five. New Bet three six five customers get one
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet
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  Speaker 1: five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites to posit
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  Speaker 1: ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
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  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
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  Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet
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  Speaker 1: three to sixty five. Must be twenty one or older
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms conditioned restriction a plat
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Kevin I just mentioned in the intro you are a
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: master of media, and to me, what's interesting about your
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: career truly is how you have morphed from beat writer
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: at the Journal, which to me, by the way, has
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: the best sports section in the country. I think the
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: people who write for the Wall Street Journal do the
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: most interesting stories. Robert O'Connell to me writing about the NBA,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: he gets every story that I'm interested in in the moment.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: I just think he's great. Explain the evolution for you
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: from beat reporter to analytics guy, which is a lot
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: of what you were doing at the Journal, and then
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: journal at Ringer and then a broad football analyst.
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah. So I was covering the Dolphins when I was
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: in college for a paper in Fort Lauderdale. Got hired
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: when I was still in college by a friend of yours,
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: Chad sam Walker, and a commuted my last semester in
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: college from from New York to Miami as much as
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: I possibly could. I basically ran out of my diploma
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: and then mailed me a diploma anyway, like I think
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: I did the Bear. I would basically my pressor's like, listen,
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: I just give me, just give me a check list
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: here and I'll go through it, and somehow I have
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: a diploma, by the grace of God. And so I
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: started covering the Knicks as a twenty two, twenty three
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: year old that was there right before Karmelo Anthony came in.
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: And then Carmelo Anthony obviously made me a change the
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: tone of the beat. And what I realized was, I'm
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: with Francosola, I'm with Mark Berman, I'm with Alan Hahn,
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: and I've got sources but not like them. And so
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: I was such already an appreciate appreciator. That's a word
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: of analytics. But what I was starting to do was say, hey,
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: why don't I call up X y Z analytics person
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: and say, hey, this is the best way for Omari
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: and Carmelo to get together? That that kind of thing.
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: And I was getting a ton of attention through that, because,
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: first of all, the team notices, you know, the coaching
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: staff notices when you're doing this, the Anil Lakes stuff. This
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: is twenty eleven, when nobody's talking about this stuff. Nobody.
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, you remember, like it was happening in baseball,
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: it wasn't really happening in basketball. And so if you say, like,
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: I remember, I wrote a piece about how you know,
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: at one point the guys they traded for Carmelo, if
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: you just put them on one team had more wind
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: chares combined than the Carmelo team. Like that was getting traction.
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: And so I started to just go down that role,
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: that that rabbit hole as much as I could and
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: just figure out what guys are talking about. You get
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: end up getting sources within the organization because they care
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: about analytics or they want to tell you about it.
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: And so for me, it was just like a natural.
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: I always like when I was in college, it's the
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: Dolphins writer. I was number three guy, So you have
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: to just figure out your lane. Like, if you don't
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: figure out your lane, hey, you're not gonna get in
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: the paper. Be no one's gonna read you. And so
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: for me, I got into the analytics part of it
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: because I liked it, but be it was just the
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: way I could compete with Franko Sola and Mark Berman,
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: who who've had sources at MSG for for twenty five years.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: And so then you get into the NFL beat and
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: it's the same thing nobody's talking about. I mean, I
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: remember there was a guy who told me this is
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: twenty twelve, that he was an early analytics guy in
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: the NFL, and there were like five analytics guys in
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: twenty twelve and that he had an office, and he
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: said to the coaching staff, he was like, hey, anytime
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: you have a question, coming here. I can run any
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: data set you need. I can tell you about play calling,
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: I can tell you about evaluation. I'm here, he said.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: For months, months he was ignored, completely ignored. No coach
• 9:30
  Speaker 5: would engage with him, nobody had any questions. And then
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: one day im position coach comes in and says, I
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: have a question, and the guy perks up and he's
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: all right, here comes the analytics breakthrough, and the coach goes,
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: can you give us our record when we win the
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: turnover battle? Which is like the most like you could
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: probably in the back of a newspaper somewhere, but that
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: was their idea of analytics, is like win loss record
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: when you win the turnover battle. And I realized there
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: was a lot of untapped potential there where you have
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: these guys who no one's paying attention to the understand
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: the sport now. I never Football will never be like
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: baseball and basketball where you can explain the entire sport
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: through analytics. I still believe in toughness. I still believe
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: in things like running the ball and the running back position,
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: all that stuff. But like I just realized there was
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: no one was writing about this stuff, and you can
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: explain a lot of football through it. And so that's
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: just kind of how I did it. And then eventually
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: I kind of branched out started podcasting at the Ringer
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: did the omahas Pan thing a couple of years ago,
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: and so really it's all through the same vein, which
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: is like going going where it takes you right right
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: in the wave where it takes you, as Pearl Jam said,
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: and it's kind of everything's case by case, everything's the
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: next step. Okay, this podcasting is exploding. I'll do this.
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: It was never some grand plan. It was just this,
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: this makes sense.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I'll go do this, don't you think though? When Simon,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I'm curious about your take on this as well, Analytics
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: to me in football has become so huge. Yeah, it's
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: getting harder and harder. You say it doesn't have the
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: same I'm not sure if I'm quoting you correctly here.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: It can't be the same impact that baseball as it
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: has on baseball or basketball because there are a lot
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: of intangibles just about the way the game is played.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: But it certainly isn't as increased fandom giving people a
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: different entry point into the game. But do you think
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: there are still edges to be found from an analytics
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: point of view or has that all been sliced and
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: diced in a way that is impossible to find a
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: new angle? Simon, you go first, since you've got to
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: think about this from a financial point of view.
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say that what we've been talking about
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: a naigen about all these teams adjusting to the fourth down.
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: That's been to me the biggest adjustment in this league
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: where you know, chat we would joke back in the day,
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: I feel like Riverboat Ron Rivera was the one doing
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: it with Cam Newton, and it's like, you know, you
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: think back to that, that feels like a made up story,
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: like what Ron Rivera, that old dinosaur was going for
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: it on fourth down before everyone else.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: And you know, we saw a.
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: Little bit with Belichick, but it really did feel like
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: Doug Peterson winning that Super Bowl kind of put it
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: on a different level of all these other teams were
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: just like, Okay, let's stop ignoring the nerd in the corner.
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: Let's talk to this guy, because.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: Clearly the numbers do matter, and now I'm interested here
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: Kevin's you of it because I'm trying to think back
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: now to what first teams I remember doing it were
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: the Ravens an earlier adapter like, who were in your
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: mind where the first teams to really embrace it and
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: actually use as a good tool.
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: Well, you're right for me. The conversation started after Belichick's
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: failed fourth down that Kevin Folk fourth and too, you know,
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: catches it and goes short of the goal line. I
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: remember talking to analyst guys, and he said, that's when
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: the debate started. That's when you're bringing on guys to
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: Sports Center to explain why that was a good idea,
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: Guys who had never been professor's analytics guys Aaron Schatz,
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: Guys who were never ever consulted on any of this stuff,
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: where all of a sudden on Sunday Countdown explaining why
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: it was good. The following week that started the conversation.
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: I agree with you, Doug Peterson changed something with his aggression,
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: and then all of a sudden, the Ravens, where it's
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: John Harball forward thinking because he has Lamar Jackson, realizes
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: that Lamar Jackson getting two yards is a really easy proposition,
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: and I think from there it goes. And I remember
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: talking to Neil Hornsby, who founded ProFootball Focus, and I said, what,
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: what in twenty years is going to be the bunt
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: of football? Like what are we going to look and be?
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: Like?
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: I can't believe they were giving up outs and he
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: was saying, it's the fourth and two, fourth and three
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: punt that's not basically in your own red zone unless
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: you're in your own red zone. Just go for it, right,
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: unless it's fourth and fourteen or whatever. And we're starting
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: to see that now the aggression there, whether that's the
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: you know, the tush push is basically automatic. But like
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: guys understand the short yardage stuff, they understand that getting
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: two yards is really really easy in this era and
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: passing the ball, and I doubt that's the one thing
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: what's funny about it is so I did a piece
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: with Dan Campbell a couple of years ago. He goes
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: for down all the time, as we know, and he
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: said he likes analytics, he embraces analytics, but it's gut
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: for him that he was with Sean Payton and he
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: wanted to scare defenses. And when Sean Payton would go
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: for it. He look over the other sideline and they're scrambling,
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: they're tearing their headsets off, their saying we don't have
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: the right personnel in and he's like, I want to
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: do that. And it's not about analytics, it's about seeing
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: the coach about to poop his pants. And then the
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: other part of it, and this is something that both
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: I've talked to Matt Laflora and Dan Campbell about. It's
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: not necessarily about getting three yards on fourth and two.
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: It's we can take a shot on fourth down. That's
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: part of it. Is like, what if we ran a
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: play action pass there was actually thirty yards down field
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: on fourth down? That adds an entirely new level. That's
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: not Frankie Luvu jumping over the goal line to try
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: to stop the toush push. That's we can score a
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: fifty yard touchdown on this play. So I think the aggression,
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: it's not just fourth down, it's the aggressiveness with which
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: they attack fourth down has changed football. And I completely
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: agree with what you're saying, Simon, But from an analytics standpoint,
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: I think we don't because it's such a secret sport.
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: Maybe baseball as this too. A lot of this is proprietary.
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: So like when tracking data came into football one I
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: had someone, an analytics source, let's call it, who told
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: me that there's a team that realized that they're big
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: defensive tackles who are three hundred and thirty pounds exert
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: almost all of the energy they exert running from sideline
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: to play running from sideline to play. So they realized
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: that in substitution situations they should always run the ball
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: to the far sideline of their opponent so that their
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: defensive linemen are always getting tired. So it's all it's
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: stuff like that, So you wouldn't think, oh, like analytics
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: is going to be this, no, no, no, Like you're finding
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: these little edges and you're just saying, hey, maybe this
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: will work, and maybe in the fourth quarter, we've made
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: the defensive tackles three hundred and twenty pounds run back
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: and forth of the sideline seventeen times. Now he can't
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: rush the past. It's little things like that that I
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: think are going to be revealed retroactively, kind of like
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: with baseball, we didn't know what was going on Moneyball
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: until Michael Lewis wrote it right we're going to find
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: out in ten years, Hey, this team was doing this,
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: There's no way I think they they. I think someone
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: referred to Hollie Roysman's analytics department with Alec Calbi as
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: like a black box, you know whatever, almost like the CIA,
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: Like they're probably doing stuff that would blow our minds.
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: But because it's proprietary, we'll find out in ten years
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: when they say, hey, you know what we're doing for
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: that team?
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: XYS and I want to give I do want to
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: get a little love, Chad to one team that was
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: ahead of the curve, the nineteen.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Eighty eight Dallas Carter Cowboys. Now do you know who
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: that is?
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: Chad?
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Dallas Carter Cowboys were the team that beat I think
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: was it Permian High School?
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: In Friday Night Lights, which Simon, don't fucking challenge me.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I love Chow eighties sports writing, which is when I
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: decided I wanted to be a sports writer, and Friday
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Night Lights was one of the books. So much so
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: in fact, that when Gene Hackman died a couple weekends ago,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I watched Choosers and the next movie that was served
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: to me was The Billy Bob Thornton Friday Night Lights movie.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: So I just watched it like two weeks ago.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Good Man. Yeah, I always think back of that though.
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: It's like, how did this guy in nineteen eighty eight
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: be ahead of NFL teams by what twenty years? Like
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: the fact that he was always going for two, never punting,
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: just literally relied on his guys in athleticism, being like,
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: we're the best, We're gonna show up here.
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: And now he was right.
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: We just saw it in the NFL.
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: Like, as an Eagles fan, I will never get over
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: the fact that they punted or they kicked that field
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: goal in that first drive with Jane Daniels with Washington right,
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: they drove that whole field and for some reason they
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: went away from who they were. And we talk all
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: the time it's like the coaches that stay true to
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: who they are, right, they always stay going for it
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: on the fourth down, those are usually teams at the
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: end of the year that's going to come out.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: So it just popped in and we were talking about
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: it's like, how did.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: This team in nineteen eighty eight in high school be
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: so far ahead of these college NFL teams. It is
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: funny how those things just start that way.
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: I completely agree. And the one thing that's surprising to me, guys,
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: it has not become mainstream. Maybe it's getting there, but
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: like this whole thing of all coaches want to say
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: is I believe in my guys.
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: We're aggressive, we're.
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: Tough, and then they punt on fourth and one, you're
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: acting like a coward. That the way to enact belief
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: in your guys is to say, we practice getting one
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: yard all the time. We can get this one yard.
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: We're gonna out tough you in the trenches and get
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: this one yard. I'm surprised that hasn't become more mainstream thought. Allah.
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: Dan Campbell and some of these guys who are trying
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: to do that.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Well, that's what's interesting when you talk about Campbell, you
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: talk about Sean Payton, these guys who are traditionalists when
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: it comes to coaching football, but are progressives when it
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: comes to how they play call and the decisions they make.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: And to your point, it has nothing to do with
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: the analytics. And that's what's fascinating to me is that
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: there is this quality of football that you've alluded to,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: the toughness, the intangibles that happens to play into the analytics, right,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: So that to me is amazing. The one thing that
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: drives me nuts. And you just talked about this with Lafleur.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Teams that have a fourth and two and they decide
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: they're going to go for it. The Saints did this
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: so many times last year with Derek Carr. They got
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: a short yardist situation and either in a high leverage
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: spot on third down or fourth down, and instead of
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: actually going for the first down, they create a play
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: call where the only option is some over the shoulder
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: fade against the sideline that has a very narmin What
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the fuck, Kevin, Why when you talk to coaches like
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: you have so many great coaches on your show, you
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: have so many players on your show. You just said
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Lafleur likes to think about it. Do they think about
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: it realistically? Do they?
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: Is it a.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Well like, why are they doing this?
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: I think that part of it. So when I talked
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: to him, it was last year about this particular issue
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: was last year of Rogers, and you're thinking, like Rogers
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: one of the most accurate quarterbacks in history. Now that
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: started to dissipating. He had the thumb injury that year.
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: He was banged up all year I think he was
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: frankly missing throws on fourth and two, and it was
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: actually extremely frustrating to watch as someone who picked them
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: to win the Super Bowl that year. I picked the
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: Packers on Super Bowl like all the time. I don't
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: know why I still do it. I don't know why.
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna probably stop this year. I'm off, I'm off
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: the train. But I think it's it's kind of what
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: we're talking about. It's a belief. It's a confidence in
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: saying like we can execute this. We practiced this over
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: and over and over again. So if I call my
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: best play on fourth and three, it's gonna work. And
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: the problem is is that if it doesn't work, I
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: think there's a sense of panic. More more so, I
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: think the quarterback's eyes dart around because it's not second
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: down where you go, all right, we're gonna just dirt
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: the ball and lived another day. I think there's a
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: sense of if it starts to go, really goes. And
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: I wonder if maybe more not conservative plays, but plays
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: with more options baked into it, Like you know, we
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: all play Madden or NC double A or whatever. On
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: fourth down, I promise you I call three routes that
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: can all work, and I wonder sometimes why why coaches
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: don't do that.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I completely agree with you, so annoying.
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: Just play Madden, guys. Yeah, you would always run a
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: drag and a post and something's gonna hit.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Okay, just call it like you would on a Tuesday afternoon,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: play in your base. That's really it. You've hake Kevin
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: O'Connell on the show. Yeah, we love Kevin O'Connell. Going
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: back a couple of years, I always felt like he
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: got shafted a little bit for a Coach of the
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Year when Brian Daball got it and Kevin O'Connell did
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the same exact thing that Brian Daball did. And then
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: this year he proved he's just consistently been a better
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: coach by reading the way he did with Sam Darnold.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Explain to our listeners of the things that you learned
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: from him about quarterbacking.
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: So first of all, you want to tell about analytics, Yeah,
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: my guy is deep in the weeds on So I
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: didn't know the lore of this as I said it.
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: So I'd mentioned that JJ McCarthy over the middle of
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: field was one of the mos efficient pastors in football.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: He knew those stats, but he also knew that JJ
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: McCarthy on the weighty downs, third and eight, third and nine,
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: third and ten was one of the most efficient pastors
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: in the history of football. And apparently I was told
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: in my replies that that was like a basically a
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: Vikings blogger who wrote a piece about about how good
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: he was on weighty downs, and that Kevin O'Connell clearly
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: read that and repeated some of those stats. So, like
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: you want to tell about a guy who's head of
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: the curve, how many coaches are reading their own team's
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: analytics bloggers, right, Like that's that's that's different. Okay, that's different.
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: And by the way, I think cam Ward beat J. J.
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: McCarthy's records on third and lawn, But we won't we
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: won't get into that just yet. But what I love
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: about Kevin O'Connell is, and I'd heard him talk about
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: this before, is that he doesn't I think he views
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: quarterback development very personally. If I don't help Sam Donald,
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: that's on me. And I think a lot of coaches,
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: I said, twenty five coaches in the thirty two say,
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: and we got this guy's in his fourth year. I'm
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: not really gonna we're gonna mail it in like truly
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: we're gonna mail it. We're not gonna give him any reps,
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: so I can try to develop him. And Kevin O'Connell
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: seize it as his mission to take a Sam Donald
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: even though you're getting J J. Mcrad that goeta started
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: last year, but he wanted to develop Sam Donald. And
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: the other thing I think is important is he thinks
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: and I think he lives it. Don't overreact at any point.
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: I think we do this all the time. Don't overreact
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: to any point to the quarterback. Don't overreact o for OTAs,
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: don't take stock at for training camp. It's all a journey.
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: And the only thing he said, the only thing you
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: need to be thinking about is what is this player's
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: ceiling and what is the goal? What is the path
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: towards that ceiling. Everything else is a distraction almost right.
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: It's like the old Nick Saban results or a distraction thing.
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: And what's funny is I was just talking about this
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: with with cam Ward because I'm thinking about someone like
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: Anthony Richardson, where we know what a ceiling is. He's
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: one of the most athletic quarterbacks of all time, Anthony Richardon,
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: and you had to give him a runway of two
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: or three years to reach that ceiling. He gets hurt
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: after a month of his rookie season. Everybody's trying to
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: say their germen Indianapolis, and all of a sudden he
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: gets Spencer Joe Flacco, who, by the way, was did
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: not steady the ship like I think that people thought
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: that Joe Flacco, Oh yeah, no, he'll get there days. No, No,
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: he was bad. They were bad. And yet Richardson is
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: going to get failed by the entire cults thing because
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: they didn't They drafted a guy who was a project
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: and didn't give the project time to develop into anything.
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: And I said this on my show a couple of
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: weeks ago. Have you guys ever heard the Paul Deepadesta
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: analytics roller coaster analogy that he gave at a conference
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: years ago. It's one of the best things I've ever heard.
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: So they said, when you're if you're Paul Deep asked
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: Paul Deep Adesta, what do you want ownership? And he says,
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: I don't know what I want ownership, but I know
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: what I don't want an ownership. It happens all the
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: time in analytics, which is acting like my child at
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: the amusement park where they say I want to get
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: on the roller coaster. When I get on the roller coaster,
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: and then it starts to get really scary, and as
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: soon as it gets scary, my daughter goes, I want
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: off the roller coaster. Get me off this roller coaster.
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: Stop the ride. And with with analytics, I think a
• 25:32
  Speaker 5: lot of times, to go back to what Deepodesta was saying,
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: a lot of times ownership is like, of course you
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: want analytics. Of course you want analytics. And then we go, oh,
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: by the way, we're going to trade the star player.
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: Oh by the way, we're not gonna have a point
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: guard to start theater.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: Oh by the way.
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: You know, like all of these things you have to
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: do in order to get those results. The ownership goes, well,
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: we can't do that, we can't well well woa wa,
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: well we can't do that. And I kind of think
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: the same thing is true of quarterback play. If you're
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: drafting Anthony Richardson what you think's gonna happen, the floor
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: is very low. And I think that a lot of times,
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: like did you expect him to be ready in September
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: of his rookie year, Well, he would have gone first
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: overall if that was the case. And so I think
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: that when I look at someone like Kevin O'Connell, I
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: look at a guy who's what the NFL needs for
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: their quarterback development problem. He sees it personally. He wants
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: to help these guys. He understands the timelines, he understands
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: what JJ McCarthy is gonna need. And frankly, you know,
• 26:34
  Speaker 5: unless you're a Chiefs fan or five other teams, maybe
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: i'd want Kevin O'Connell coaching my team if I was
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: a fan.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Simon, I know you want to jump in, I mean,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: fellow real quickly because that quarterback thing is interesting. And Simon,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: you love Dannathonian Richardson coming out of college. And to me,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: it makes me wonder why don't people think differently about
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: drafting quarterbacks. If nobody believes Shador Sanders would be a
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: top flight prospect in a year where there were other
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks who were coming out who were better, why all
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: of a sudden reach to draft him in the top ten.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Do people really believe cam Ward is as good a
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: prospect as Caleb Williams, as Jaden Daniels, it's like, Okay, great,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: that's great. But if not, it seems like if you
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: were Obviously the premium is on a quarterback because it's
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: such the most it's the most important position, but that
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: leads to a rational decision making, and that leads to reaching,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: and people are so afraid of what the optics are
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: going to be they can't make the actual in a
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: vacuum analytics decision.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: That's fair.
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: I'm I'm I'm the wrong guy because I don't believe
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: in the reaching for a quarterback. It's such a unique
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: position in this league that it's like like.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: You're the Browns.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: If you think Sanders is a reach, it's why your
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: organization is a bunch of losers and you've never had
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: a good quarterback. It's like you're not in that position
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: to say, well that's a reach for when it organization,
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: it's it's no you you see right, there's especially old
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: school scouts. They're looking for guys to have, you know,
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: they do one or two things really well, like all
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: pro level, and they can figure.
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: Out the rest right match it together.
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: Anthony Richards is a great example of that of just
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: pure raw talent played what thirteen games, twelve games in college,
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: came out of twenty one crazy young. You knew there
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: was gonna be a ton of bumps on the road.
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: Their organization is held has been terrible at handling that.
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: But also you hear rumors about him. Is he in
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: there all day, working all day?
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: Right? Does he come and early leave late? Some things?
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: You hear he's not that type of guy, which again,
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: if you're not that guy in the NFL, you're probably
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: not gonna last. Like you just have to work so
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: hard at the quarterback position. On the flip side, I
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: guy like Jane Daniels, who played for what five six
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: years in college, came out incredibly polished, incredibly mature. He
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: didn't have those speed bumps right. He came out and
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: I feel like after one or two games he adjusted
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: to the NFL. So I'm with you on that chat
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: where it's like it is tough with some of these
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: teams because they're trying to over evaluate these positions. But
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: from my mindset, it's just like you got to keep shooting.
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: Like cam Ward, I love this kid's skill set. He's
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: a bunch of little things he does where I'm like, oh,
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: this kid can easily be a stud in two or
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: three years, or we can have this weird run. We've
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: been on chat where c J shroud came out right away,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: legit playoff quarterback changed this whole team's organization the following year,
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: Jane Daniels. So we've been on this run now of
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: these quarterbacks coming out way more mature that people give
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: them credit for, adjusted to the NFL fashion that people
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: give them credit for. And again that comes down to
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: the analytics of these teams know exactly the best thing
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: to do with these quarterbacks. The other teams don't. Right,
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: the other teams need a year to adjust. So that's
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: why I'm interested you Jaane Dewel's upcoming season. We saw
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: CJ teams adjusted to him last year even though they
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: had a ton of injuries. One of the adjustments to
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: Jane Daniels because right now, even breaking down his film chat,
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: I don't see it like this kid he's got it all.
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: Like if he can keep that mentality, he's going to
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: be our problem next year. So I'm miss here Kevin's
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: view on it because it's he's in the same boat
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: as me, Like he liked Nanthony Richardson, but we both
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: agree like that ownership the coaching staff, it feels like
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: they've all failed him at this point.
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: Well with Richardson in particular, what if you taught him
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: to be more of a professional instead of just giving
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: up on him? And I thought the marketing of the
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: benching was really stupid. You know. It was like, hey,
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: Shane stike And is he going to be your quarterback
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: in the future? And Steikeen was like, oh, well, you know,
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: I guess we'd love that. Yeah, sure, what made anything's possible?
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: You know, Like it was like when they bentioned this year,
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: it was like he was never coming back. And you
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: think about Bryce Young and obviously the Andy Dalton car
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: accident played into this, but like they still believed in
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: Bryce Young and they still developed him and they weren't
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: going to give up on him. And Bryce Stung arguably
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: was worse than Anthony Richon ever was. It was just
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: danth Richton tapped on his helmet to give up on
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: a player, give up on a drive, which again, you
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: teach him and you move on. There's a lot, not
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: a lot of guys who are finished products. You mentioned
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: Jaden and Daniels, he played forever in college. I call
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: those guys doctor quarterbacks because Bo Nicks and Michael Pennox
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: and Jayden Daniels played one hundred years and and through
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: I think a thousand all of them through a thousand
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: more passes than J. J.
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: McCarthy. Like it's it.
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: They were playing a different sport, had a different developmental thing.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: With Ward.
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: I can tell you why. I think he's like a
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: franchise guy. I could tell you a million things. My
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: two concerns. So he tries to make things happen a
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: lah Josh Allen, which is a good thing. Coaches like that.
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: You want to say, what's the other thing you want
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: to say? You want to rain him in instead of
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: you know, kicking him on the butt basically, and he
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: will go for it. And my concern is if there's
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: really bad turnover, look early or you know, he's so
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: comfortable in the pocket's he operates so not casually but
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: so slowly, will hang in there, which is a strength
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: in college. You do it against Miles Garrett. It's stripsack, right,
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: it's a it's a scooping score. So those are my
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: two concerns. My concern is one bad month and all
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: of a sudden, oh, we're gonna go see what will Levisa?
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: You know, it's it's that kind of thing. I don't
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: think that's gonna happen. I'm just saying that what the
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: organization needs to say in the front end, I think
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: they will. I think the Titans are really smart. Whoever
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: drafts cam Ward, I'm gonna assume it's gonna be the Titans,
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: barring a trade, needs to say. There's going to be
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: plays and there were only five of them at Miami
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: where he throws across his body because he's trying to
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: win the game, and it is a really really ugly series,
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: and we got to say, you know what, that's just
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: who he is, the same thing that Bill said about
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: Josh Allen. That's who he is. We're gonna try to
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: tweak a little bit, but we're gonna let him go.
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: Oh he fumbled on one play because he was trying
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: to do too much. Okay, Fine, he's gonna get to
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: January as our starter. And guess what he's gonna get
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: to next January as our starter. You almost and I've
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: thought this before, pat Riley, I guess before that. The
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: heat Big three thing came to Eric Spolsterra and said,
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: there is nothing you can do to get fired. There
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: is nothing you can do, and there's gonna be so
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: much noise on you know, hey, Lebron is leaking that
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: he wants to bring in his own people. Lebron wasn't
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: listening to the timeout. Doesn't matter you're the coach, and
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: with someone like Ward, where there's gonna be bumps on
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: the road because of how aggressive he plays. The best
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: thing to do is say, Cam, there is not a
• 33:34
  Speaker 5: thing in the world that will get you benched. And
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: it's the exact same thing they should have said to
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: Anthony Richardson.
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: And I love that too, where like Chad's saying it
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: is random, right, no one really knows in the draft
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: who's gonna be the guy when they're drafting quarterbacks. My
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: favorite thing will always be you don't know in mini camps,
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: but you know, come July August when everyone's in camp together,
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: you can see, like my favorite River Wi always be
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: the Alex Smith story. Like they're they're in Kansas City
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: and they're just getting there in August, everyone's getting ready
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: for the ucoming season and Ean Alex Smith turned to
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: his coach and was like, holy shit, this Patrick Mahomes
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: kid is the real deal. Like there's certain guys coming
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: in the league immediately they're just so talented it jumps
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: off the board. And you know, we've had a run
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: here of these quarterbacks of you know, just absolute game changers.
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: Like it's it's been shocking how much good quarterback play
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: we've had come into this league lately. And you just
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: mentioned the name that me and Chad love, right, we
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: love the Panthers and we love talking about what they're
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: gonna do down there, and you know the future of
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: Bryce Young and someone that you know, my whole knock
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: on him was I just didn't see the ceiling, Like
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: when Anthony Richards and I saw the ceiling of a
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: Josh Allen type, big body, incredible arm, freak athlete Bryce Young.
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: I just never saw what the ceiling was. I know,
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: people were like, well he could be arew Drew Brees type.
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: There's only one Drew Brees in my lifetime, Like, there's
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: never been another type like that that's small with an
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: incredible arm.
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Deadly accuracy. But you saw flashes of that last year
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: at the end of the season.
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: I saw what people said when they talked about him.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, you interviewed Dave Can, what's his coming on
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: the season. What's what's the view right now of him?
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: You know, this is in my mind a make or
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: break season for him.
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: You're three. If they don't do well.
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: How did they not take a quarterback at his points?
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: So I'd love to hear your view after talking on
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: their head coach.
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: They believe in Bryce obviously going into this year. I
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: think part of it. I think Bryce works really hard
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: and it's coachable, and I think those are the two things.
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: Even going into the season. I know some guys down
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: there in Carolina and they were saying, listen, it's not
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: I forget what the phrasing of someone down there in
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: Carolina told me, Like, it's not about him becoming the
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: next Droup Breeze. It's about him becoming the next Baker Mayfield,
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: you know, like the thirteenth, twelfth best quarterback. I think
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: that Alex Smith had a start to his career in
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: San Francisco that was abysmal. And I've talked to Smith
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: about this. It took him three years to get over
• 35:46
  Speaker 5: his first start because they're just how bad it was.
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: I think that I think if you are that bad
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: when you come in, it probably means you're not going
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: to be Mahomes. It probably means you're not going to
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: be CJ. Stroud. You can still be the twelfth best
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: quarterback in the NFL. You can still be Baker Mayfield.
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: You can still be that level. And I think that
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: that's the most important thing for Carolina now. It was
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: raising the floor and giving him those options. And when
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: I talked to Canalys, I said, what's the key to
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: that thing? And he said the key is meeting them
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: in the middle and saying, if you work hard, I
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: will reward you with routes that you like, concepts you like.
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: If you come to me and say I can throw
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: this route reliably over the middle, for instance, I will
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: build a playbook around that. So long as you give
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: me proof of concept that you're going to work your
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: butt off, you're gonna get there and you're gonna hit
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: that route every single time. That's it is that the
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: coaches do their jobs, the quarterback does their jobs. They
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: both have a trust. Trust is the word that he
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: used a million times. That's what ended up happening with
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: Bryce Young is they said, can you work to a
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: point where you can do these things well? And he says, yes, Okay, Fine,
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: we'll build the playbook around that. All of a sudden,
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: that's how you raised the floor. So to me, again
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: going back to the Kevin O'Connell thing, that's coaching Gino Smith,
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young. Those are the three coach quarterbacks
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: that Dave Canalys's coached over the past one five years.
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: And that's what he's done every single place is raise
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: the floor with trust and with schemes and saying only
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: do what you do well. And I think that's the
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: one thing. I think in the old football guys, there
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: was a lot of hey, this, we're gonna draft this quarterback.
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: He's gona run our system and if you can't run
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: our system, he's out of here. And I think that
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: what it is now with the way the college is,
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: it's like we're gonna So Brian Callahan, as the Titans coach,
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: was on my show. It was talking about he wasn't
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: about Kim Morton, talking about Joe Burrow. Of course he
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: would never talk about Kim Moore, but he was saying
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: that the one thing he tried to do with Burrow
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: is make year one in Cincinnati b year three at LSU,
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: make the concepts so familiar that you're not sitting there
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: trying to learn calculus, right, you're saying, oh, I can
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: do this, and then if the bullets start flying and
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: the speed of the game isn't what he thought or whatever,
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: you can go, Okay, you know what we're gonna do, Joe.
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: We're gonna run the eight concepts that you ran exactly
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: at LSU. And I think you can probably read into
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: the fact that that Brian Callahan has been revisiting his
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: Joe Burrow notes. He's been rewatching the zooms he had
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: with Joe Burrow because that was during COVID, so we
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: had it all recorded, it's all on his computer. So
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: I think you probably read into that with what they're
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: gonna do with the first overall pick. And I think
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: you can probably read into the idea that they're going
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: to take a lot of stuff from cam Ward's offense.
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: So that's a lot of RPOs. I mean, that's it's
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: it's a lot. It's a lot of middle of the
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: field stuff. There's probably gonna be a lot of that,
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: lot of tight end usage, a lot of that is
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: probably gonna be in Tennessee year one. And that's that's
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: what a good coach does.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: That detail right there about him rewatching the zooms thinking
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: about Joe Burrow in his third year at LSU, which
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: could be equivalent to cam Warden in his first year
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: at Washington State. Like that is a great fucking deal. Cat,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: that is like that detail right there.
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: FU, Who say, Who's to say cam Warden is the
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: first overall pick? I can present the facts as they
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: were presented to me. Ban Callahan is sitting around looking
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: at the old zooms of Joe Burrow. So of course
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: the number one overall pick will be a dual carter.
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: Of course. Still that is it's gonna it's one word.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: That's that's this is football quality right there. Listeners want
• 39:20
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• 39:23
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  Speaker 1: That's edgeboost dot Bet promo code favorites. As we said,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: the Masters is this week starts on Thursday. You've been
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: doing the bet casts with ESPN for golf. How do
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: you think about golf from the analyzing the sport from
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: a betting point view.
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: I don't been on football, and the reason I don't
• 40:51
  Speaker 5: is because I bet every single tournament golf turam I can,
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: and I know how mad I get it. Xander Schoffley
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: when he misses a nine footer that costs me money, Okay,
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: there he goes from from T eight to T twelve, right,
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: And I just couldn't imagine that being Bobby Wagoner missing
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: a tackle and costing me, you know, an NFC East
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: Futures bet. And then a week later, Bobby Wagoner's on
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: my show and I'm just shooting daggers at him and saying,
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: what the hell was that, Bobby? Like, I just know it, right,
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: So there's a separation of church and state.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: For me, it's not a moral separation. It is a
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: emotional person ethical journalistic.
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: I just want to come to it as ethics is
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: the wrong word. It's more journalistic. I want to come
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: to everything completely neutral. What's funny now? And I'm thinking
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: that can name any names, but you can see who
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: has what bets based on people's Twitter feeds during a
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: game now where it's like these refs are out of
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: control and it's like, okay, Buddy, I know you had
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: Florida relax.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's funny.
• 41:58
  Speaker 5: And for me, I never want to be the guy
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: who's who's analyzing a sport. I'm paid to cover like
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: that in any way other than fairness and anything other
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: than like I say, if I had C J. Stroud
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: to win an MVP this year as a future as
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: beat Simon, I would have interrupted you and said, well.
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: No, no, no, you're wrong about what we got.
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: The thing about c J start like I would have
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: come through that way. Now I'm coming through it only
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: to the prism of is CJ. Stro I'm gonna make
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: a leap that he did make last year like that,
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: That's that's the way I want to do it. So
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: for me, I love the analytics of golf, Like that's
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: the one thing. I saw cousin Style at the airport
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: at the Super Bowl last year and we were talking
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: about gambling and I said, I'm I'm I love gambling
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: on golf and he said what, I guess he's less
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: into it and he said, sell me on this for
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: a second. And I said, well, imagine Patrick Mahomes played
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: on a different field every single week, and that's some
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: weeks it was one hundred yards. Some weeks it was
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: seventy yards, but it was it was more with and
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: you had to figure out every single week whether or
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: not this is going to help or hurt Mahomes' game,
• 42:59
  Speaker 5: And that you would look at my Holmes's you know,
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: last seven games and look at his ball flight and
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: figure that out, and like imagine just the different rabbit
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: holes you go down, because this is golf is a
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: sense of place more than anything, and you get to
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: understand this stuff. And Augusta is the heightened version of
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: all of this because the same stuff every year with
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: a few changes, I guess the hurricane change some of
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: the tree layouts or whatever. But it's ball strikers. And
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: if you guys gamble on golf, you know, take ball
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: strikers and figure the rest out later. That's a pretty
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: reliable way to get a bunch of top tens the
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: top twenties to hit. It's course history that matters a lot.
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: And then there's all these things that are unique to Augusta.
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: I saw Rick Gamon had an awesome nugget on his
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: podcast yesterday, I think, where he said that in his research,
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: the guys who do the best at putting on Augusta,
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: it's not till your sixth year, statistically that you tend
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: to figure it out. You're six through ten playing Augusta
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: are the years you peak as a putter, because it
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: takes you that long to figure out the greens at Augusta.
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: And so I don't think there's many places like this.
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: I think that maybe I'm biased because it's it's one
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: of the only sports that I really do bet on,
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: But I think betting the Masters is the best betting
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: experience you can have. Maybe maybe the NCAA tournament's more
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: fun or more endorphins or whatever, more more stimulation, Like
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: this is unbelievable. And what's funny about it? For me?
• 44:18
  Speaker 5: I was mentioned the ball strikers. What's always frustrating about
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: the Masters because I've been on ball strikers every single
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: week and just go, hey, who's Taa Green, Who's a
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: prohot guy? What's been on that guy? It's always one
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: of my guys who wins this always, but it may
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: not be the guy went all in on this week,
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: Like I owe the year a DECU one, I go
• 44:37
  Speaker 5: all in on the decku like every other tournament. I
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: happened to not go in on a decky that week,
• 44:41
  Speaker 5: and I think I probably broke even that week or whatever.
• 44:44
  Speaker 5: But it's like, for real golf gamblers, this is this
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: is just heaven and I just love sorting through all
• 44:51
  Speaker 5: the info.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: So who are your We're gonna I want to go through, Yeah,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: your high end, your mid tiers, but before we get
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: to start with your high like top of the leaderboard,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: top of the odds.
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so I don't know what to do with the
• 45:06
  Speaker 5: live guys. To be completely honest with you, people keep
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: telling me there are Lord help us. There are people
• 45:11
  Speaker 5: saying Sergio Garcia is live here, and I don't know
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: what the heck. I don't know what what are we doing?
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: What are we doing on live? I don't know rom
• 45:18
  Speaker 5: people talking about cam Smith as someone. But for me,
• 45:20
  Speaker 5: the two guys at the top of my card are
• 45:23
  Speaker 5: Roy McRoy obviously plus six hundred to win, minus one
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: forty to be a top ten, I'll figure that out,
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: and then Justin Thomas he's twenty two to one to win.
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: For me, the Justin Thomas thing is simple for top
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: fifteen and Tita Green. So Tita Green strokes gained, which
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: is basically just how well you hit the ball until
• 45:43
  Speaker 5: you get to the green that last thirty six rounds.
• 45:46
  Speaker 5: He's in the top fifteen birdier better percentage. He's number
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: one par five. So if you guys know anybody gusta
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: par five. The whole rule, the rule of thumb, is
• 45:56
  Speaker 5: you just let the par fours happen. Let the par
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: three happened. You get really aggressive on par five's really aggressive. Well,
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: guess what. Justin Thomas is number one over the past
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: thirty six rounds in par five strokes gamed, number eight
• 46:10
  Speaker 5: in eagles around the green twelfth and a three plot avoidance,
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: which is important. This week he's in the top ten.
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: So for me, I'm betting Rory because I think he's
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: an amazing ball striker and I just think, frankly, I
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: know this is not great gambling termology. I think he's due.
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: I think he's better. You know, A couple of the
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: golf analysts were saying he's getting better at course management.
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: He's hitting softer shots. He's he's always gone full send
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: and he's always hitted as hard as he could. Like
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: like when we're out on it, like I do this
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: all every year, I'm like, you know what, this is
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: the year. I'm just gonna start grooving nine irons. I'm
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: gonna I'm gonna club up and just just manage the course.
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: And then I get out there and I'm like, what
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: if I hit my driver to seventy?
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: What what?
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: I'm just gonna That's all I care about. And then
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: you end up shooting eighty nine and Tod eighty because
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: of it, right and Rory, it sounds like the past
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: couple of weeks couple months has gotten a little better
• 47:00
  Speaker 5: actually following that advice and having the softer shots. But
• 47:03
  Speaker 5: to me, it's it's it's Thomas and it's Rory. At
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: this point, guys, I don't have really any top top
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: live guys on my card. I'm kind of gonna miss
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: it with Ram and Kopka because I've got the data,
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: I've got the strokes gained data, and there's evidence that
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: suggests I'm wrong here. I just think playing on live
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: is just a different deal. And I don't know, and
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: we've seen obviously Bryson win last year. It's just hard
• 47:30
  Speaker 5: for me to quantify that and say I'm going to
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: go all in all these guys in the in the
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: way that's necessary to win at the Masters.
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: And I wonder, like with someone like Rory, you're not
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: worried that he's broken mentally, just because it's been what
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: I mean something that I loved Rory because you know
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: he's from Northern Ireland. You know, I know he's not
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: the biggest fan being British, but that's why I heard
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: about him because I'm a fan of being British, of
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: British golfers, and now the fact that I'm trying to
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: think is it? Is it? Twenty thirteen, twenty twenty fifteen
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: was the last time he won out. We've seen him evolve.
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: His whole life has changed so much since since then.
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: You're right, like feels like he's been playing his best golf.
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: Do you have confidence in him though on that Sunday
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: if he has that lead, I gotta be honest.
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: After Pinehurst that's another question. But to me, the biggest
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: problem with the Master is Simon was always Thursday. It
• 48:21
  Speaker 5: was always, oh he shot a seventy nine, What the
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: hell just happened? And then he ekes his way back in.
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: I think he gets too juiced up for this. That's
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: why I was so encouraged to hear the reports of
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: him managing the course well whatever. Like you know, Bill
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: Walsh had a quote I go back to all the time,
• 48:38
  Speaker 5: which is, there's no such thing as clutch, there's just
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: executing normally. When everybody starts to lose their head, right,
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: And there's another quote from Jimmy Johnson in seth Wickersham's
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: Belichick book about twenty four out of the thirty teams
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: are going to get out of your way, and any
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: given season, just don't be one of those teams. The
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: problem with the Masters guys is Rory loses his head
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: and is one of the teams that gets out of
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: the way. And they kept gut and look at Rory
• 49:01
  Speaker 5: and go, don't I fear about this guy. He's all
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: juiced up, you know, like that kind of thing. At
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: some point he's gonna learn and he's adjusted so many things.
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: I mean, you know this in following him. He's played before,
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: he's skipped before, he's given more rest, he's given more
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: more warm up rounds, He's tried so many different things.
• 49:19
  Speaker 5: At some point you just have to believe that he's
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: a good enough player to break through. At some point,
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: you just have to believe it. And if you look
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: at some of the form stuff, Rick Gamon has some stuff.
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: Data golf has some stuff. He's one of the hottest
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: players in the world relative to his baseline, which is important.
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: We saw we saw, even though it was JJ Spawd,
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: who by the way, is on some of my cards
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: this week, we saw him take care of business in
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: the playoff at the players. I just feel like, at
• 49:47
  Speaker 5: some point it's gonna be his week. I'm gonna regret
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: having no I've how many times it like bay Hill,
• 49:52
  Speaker 5: have you not bet Rory? And he goes, what the
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: hell is this? He's like juiced up and he's high
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: five and everybody, and you're like, all right, hope, Hendrik
• 49:59
  Speaker 5: Stenson hangs. Meanwhile, you lose all your money. Right, It
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: feels to me like a Rory week where you're I
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: always with football teams in particular, I always say like,
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: what's the reverse engineer? What in ten years am I
• 50:12
  Speaker 5: going to go? Of course, this team won the Super Bowl?
• 50:14
  Speaker 5: Look at the roster, Look at the defensive tackles, look
• 50:16
  Speaker 5: at this guy on this contract, like the Eagles this year.
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: You're looking at the roster and you're going in twenty
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: thirty five, we're gonna look back and be like, of
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: course the team won this suit. What the hell are
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: we thinking? Thinking the Rams are going to beat them
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: or their commanders are going to beat them with golf.
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: I do the same, and I'm thinking, at some point
• 50:31
  Speaker 5: I'm going to look back in the twenty twenty five
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: Masters and I think I'm gonna be surprised whe or
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: we didn't win, and I always want to bet to
• 50:36
  Speaker 5: those guys.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: You know, it's so funny, Simon, you mentioned that. So
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: when I was in Palm Beach this weekend, I'm working
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: on a new book and part of the book is
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: about the guy who invented the point spread and his
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: grandson lives in Palm Beach, and his grandson was a
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: professional golfer and is now a professional golf instructor, and
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: so he was basically groomed to be a professional better.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: Ultimately he did not become a professional better, but a
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: lot of the lessons his grandfather, who you know, was
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: a master students in math at the University of Chicago
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: and Kevin, he's basically the original quant like he was
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: making models in the nineteen thirties using legal pads to
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: do all the chicken scratch math before there were algorithms
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: he could use on a computer, but all he did.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: The guy was with in Palm Beach this weekend was
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: talk about the mental elements of golf. You know, he
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: loves golf obviously so much. And the way he was
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: talking about how everything is that you know, three square
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: inches of real estate in your head talking about the
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: difference between his level of success and the level of
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: success of people who are at the level that Rory
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: is at. I feel like Rory can handle it. I
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: think actually the breakdown probably helped get him into the
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: right frame to be able to overcome that the next
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: time it happens.
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: I completely agree with you. I think that resilience can
• 52:23
  Speaker 5: be learned. I think that, I mean, the mental part
• 52:26
  Speaker 5: of it is what it is. I view so many
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: of these guys, and I said so million times before,
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: but I view it like AFC quarterbacks where I she
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: said it to Brandon be in the other day and
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: they're reverse. But if you look at Joe Burrow, Josh Allen,
• 52:42
  Speaker 5: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, they should win the super Bowl
• 52:46
  Speaker 5: every year every year. They should win the Super Bowl
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: every year, and they don't because of a little tiny thing.
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: Hey we don't this wide receiver two got hurt, this
• 52:53
  Speaker 5: left tackle got hurt, the defense was good enough. Whatever.
• 52:56
  Speaker 5: There are fifteen guys who strike the ball to win
• 53:01
  Speaker 5: every single week on tour. John Ram should win every
• 53:03
  Speaker 5: single major and not to be like the Giannis Lebron thing.
• 53:07
  Speaker 5: John Ram would would win. You know, fifty majors if
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: he was born in nineteen fifty, right, That's just kind
• 53:12
  Speaker 5: of the way it goes. And so for me, the
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: mental part of it is the entire thing. And I
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: think Rory Simon might be getting better at that. I
• 53:24
  Speaker 5: know those are famous last words. I know we probably
• 53:26
  Speaker 5: if you listen back to whatever your guest was on
• 53:28
  Speaker 5: April eighth last year, was probably saying the same thing.
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: But like, at some point he's too good not to
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: break through.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: Do you have any mid tier long shots that you're looking.
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: At, well, So Shane Lowry staying on the staying on
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: the Rory thing, just always going to ball strike in
• 53:46
  Speaker 5: the way that is just incredibly impressive. And let's say
• 53:51
  Speaker 5: seventh and t to Green, eighth and three putt avoidants,
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: top thirty and par five's top ten in eagles, twenty
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: second around the greens. So Lowry's always going to be
• 54:01
  Speaker 5: in my card. And then if I had to give
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: a longer shot in this mid tier, I'm gonna go Sepstraca,
• 54:08
  Speaker 5: who I actually heard Patmeo just shouted him out and
• 54:10
  Speaker 5: is on the Straka train. Uh, top five and tea
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: to Green, Birdie or Betty Better top three par five
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: top two, like Straca is the kind of guy that
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: is probably if I had to guess he might be
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: built for this, he might. He might be built for this.
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: And obviously I don't think he has a ton he
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: was he was sixteenth in the Masters last year. Looking
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: at it now, like I would not be surprised for
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: the Sebstraca top five and I'm gonna bet that change.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: Lowry thirty five to one, Straca sixty to one. Yeah,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: last question for you, if you had to give us,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: I know you don't bet on football. If you had
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: to give us a Masters champion, super Bowl champion, hard leg.
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: Good, Yes, give it to all right, Uh jeez. I'm
• 55:05
  Speaker 5: pretty sure. I'm pretty sure Justin Thomas is gonna win.
• 55:10
  Speaker 5: I know we spend the time on Rory, but I'm
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: pretty sure Justin Thomas is gonna win. Okay, that's my
• 55:14
  Speaker 5: that's my number one.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Pretty sure. I'm pretty sure.
• 55:17
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure you can take that to the bank.
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna go Thomas and the Ravens.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: Every year we got a believer, Chad Ravens believer.
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: I love it.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: I know, right, every year so much better.
• 55:29
  Speaker 5: As the season went along. Last year, I know what
• 55:32
  Speaker 5: happened in the playoffs, but like they have a new DC.
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: I think I believe in Lamar in a way that
• 55:39
  Speaker 5: maybe live people don't. I'm going JT and the Baltimore
• 55:42
  Speaker 5: Ravens every year.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: The Ravens are an auto future. Bet Simon, I'm pretty
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: sure the first time Kevin said Justin Thomas at twenty
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: two to one, I saw you put your head down
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: and I feel like you were betting.
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: Yep, Justin Thomas, as you know me well, Jeff, you
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: know me well.
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: I do want to say so our listeners, if you're
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: like not feeling it right the Northeast is cold right now.
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: It's a little shitt out chat. I know you're going
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: through the same thing. If you're not in the master's mode.
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: Throw on Tiger twenty nineteen on YouTube. It's like a
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: forty minute cut up somewhere an hour long. It will
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: literally put you right back into the master's mood. I
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: watched it two days ago. I'm gonna literally watch it
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: again as we get off this call, because it is.
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: It's the best. So we just talked about the mental
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: side of the game.
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: I missed the Tiger Red so much, but it just
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: it puts you in the right headset of the Masters,
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: the elegance, the weather. I think this weekend's gonna be
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: perfect in the seventies. Maybe a little rain on Friday,
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: but it's the best. The Masters really is the best.
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: Cough tournament.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: Have you been, chat, I've never been, And it's funny.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: The wedding I was at this weekend, a lot of
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: people were going from Miami. They were sticking around and
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: then just going to Augusta all life. It's I know,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: it's one of the two events I've never been to
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: that I'm dying to go to Masters in Wimbledon, and
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: it just kills me that I've never been.
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: I'll tell a three second story. I don't care about Wimble.
• 57:05
  Speaker 5: I care about the Master's deeply, and I just this
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: time of year it's hard for me to go. But
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: when I was with the Ringer the last my last
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: contract the Ringer, I had said, Hey, can I do
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: the golf Majors And they said sure, that sounds good,
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: And so I was going to apply to a Master's thing,
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: and then my mom was getting honored by our college
• 57:21
  Speaker 5: that Friday, and I couldn't miss the mom thing. And
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: my mom doesn't understand golf at all, and so I
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: didn't apply. And then I was explaining to my mom.
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: I was like, Hey, I'm gonna go to your event
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: and I'm not gonna go to the Master's. She says,
• 57:32
  Speaker 5: why don't you just call the Masters. She's a sports fan,
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: but she didn't get the master. She goes, just call
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: the Masters and tell them you can be there Sunday,
• 57:39
  Speaker 5: and I go, that sounds like a lifetime ban. Mom.
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: That sounds like, I don't think you know who we're
• 57:44
  Speaker 5: dealing with exactly. Hey, guys, I'm sorry, I have a thing.
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: Can I just leave my ticket like Sunday morning, I'll
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: be there. I'll be there, I'll see you guys. And
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: I was like, I'm gonna go ahead and not call
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: the Masters and tell them I'll be their Sunday. Mom.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Moms are the best, you know they It's like, I
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: just love just a lot of optimism. I was talking
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: to my mom last night about I was just catching
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: up with her. I hadn't spoken to her in the
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: week and I had just gotten I just landed back
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: in Connecticut, and she's like, oh, how did it, how
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: was the wedding, How is your you know, your day
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: with your guy and all that kind of stuff. I'm like,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: it's great. Then she says to me, hey, listen, in
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: my book club there's a woman, her brother in law.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: He worked at ESPN for a long time. You think
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: you know him. I'm like, what's his name? She goes,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure of his name. It sounds like Kimmel,
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: but it's not. I'm like, well, is it Jimmy Kimmel.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: She goes, no, it's not Jimmy Kimmel. But then she's
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: explaining it to me and I'm like, well, how old
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: is the guy? She goes, He's about my age, so he's,
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: you know, seventy seven. I'm like, mom, I'm not going
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: to know the guy, like he's I'm old and he's
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: twenty five years older than me. And I don't even
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: know what he was there, what he did where he worked,
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: and you don't know his name. But then she keeps
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: trying to explain it, and finally I said to her, ma,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know why we're still talking about this. I'm
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: not going to know the guy, and she goes, I
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: get it, okay, I'm sorry, honey. Unfortunately that is right
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: when my eighteen year old walked into the room, and
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: then he laughed and walked out. And when I walked
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: into the living room where he was sitting with my wife,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: they were both talking about how much I couldn't stand
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: talking to my mom. And it's like the exact opposite
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: behavior what I'm trying to model for my kids. So
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: when we are old, our kids don't roll their eyes
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: every time we call them and not want to talk
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: to us. And all I did was walk into it
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: because my mom trying to be lovely and trying to
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: be kind and just trying to say, oh my god,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: isn't it cool you worked at ESPN and this guy
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: worked at ESPN and you might know him, and this
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: woman's in my book club. Instead acted like a dick,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: and now I feel bad.
• 59:50
  Speaker 5: Wow, now you have to have lunch with this guy,
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: this seventy seven year old.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: I gotta find nice. It's my last work to find
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: this guy. Kevin Clark. This is Football. That detail about
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: Brian Callen and Joe Burrow. That's why people should listen
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: to this as football, which is about a good football podcast.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: As there is good luck on first take this week,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: good luck with the bet casts, good luck with everything
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: at ESPN. You're awesome, your revolutionary, You're a media archetype.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming on the show.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 5: Thanks.
• 1:00:20
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