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A weaker dollar has always been part of Trump's plan · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
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Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstraw.
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Speaker 2: Chuck Mike Tucker with you here today and day after
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Speaker 2: the FED had their January meeting, day after earnings from Microsoft,
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Speaker 2: Meta and Tesla, and we've got a puke fest going
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Speaker 2: on in markets. It's pretty gross out there. The now
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Speaker 2: holding up better than the other two major indices, down
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Speaker 2: about three quarters of percent, so nothing big there, about
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Speaker 2: three hundred and eighty points. SMP is feeling it. It's
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Speaker 2: down one and a half percent, about one hundred and
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Speaker 2: two points, and the Nasdaq Composite down two and a
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Speaker 2: half percent today, five hundred and ninety five points. So
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Speaker 2: tech really kind of getting hit, in particular that whole
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Speaker 2: AI complex, you know, just kind of feeling it there.
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Speaker 2: Whether you're talking Microsoft down twelve percent, Core we've down six,
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Speaker 2: Oracle down five, AMD down four, broad Calm down three,
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Speaker 2: and Video down three. You know, that's that's kind of
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Speaker 2: what you're seeing that's really dragging markets day. Interestingly, SP
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Speaker 2: five hundred only has twenty nine more companies down than
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Speaker 2: up today, so you can tell this is, you know,
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Speaker 2: really kind of a narrow swath of the market that
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Speaker 2: is really pulling it down. Despite the market being off
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Speaker 2: about one and a half percent.
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Speaker 3: When we talk about the scale of Microsoft too, it's
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Speaker 3: kind of tough to ignore that on a day where
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Speaker 3: it's erasing what like a Netflix in market capitalization.
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Speaker 2: I mean it's it's basically, so the S and P
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Speaker 2: is down one point five percent. When we look at
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Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred, Microsoft makes up just
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Speaker 2: making sure I get this right, about six percent of it.
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Speaker 2: So Microsoft is accounting for like thirty five percent of
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Speaker 2: the indicy's decline just on its own. Yeah.
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Speaker 3: So yeah, tough to have a great day when again,
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Speaker 3: like the losses that investors in Microsoft are seeing are
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Speaker 3: akin to Costco going to zero.
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Speaker 2: These are big companies. Actually no, sorry I did the
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Speaker 2: math wrong, Mike. It's accounting for about half of the
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Speaker 2: decline in the S and P.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we're talking about a four hundred plus
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Speaker 3: billion dollar wipeout in markets in one company stock. And
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Speaker 3: that's again, that's the risk when you talk about how
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Speaker 3: concentrated these AI focused companies are in markets right now. So, yeah,
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Speaker 3: the scale of this is hard to kind of fathom
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Speaker 3: because you know, you think about giant companies like Home
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Speaker 3: Depot and Bank of America and their entire shares are
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Speaker 3: worth less than what Microsoft is losing in markets today.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, US ten year Treasury is down one point eight
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Speaker 2: basis points to four point two three three percent. Not
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Speaker 2: much moving there. Dollar Index is up point six percent
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Speaker 2: to ninety six thirty three gold, which was I mean, look,
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Speaker 2: if you want to know what has broken markets today,
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Speaker 2: it's it's two things. It's pressures, metals and memory stocks
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Speaker 2: that have caused the damage. Gold at one point overnight
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Speaker 2: was touching just shy of fifty six hundred hours. It's
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Speaker 2: at fifty one to eighty right now. Like that, that's
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Speaker 2: an eight percent reversal in a span of hours. And
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Speaker 2: silver was touching one hundred and eighteen it's at one
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Speaker 2: ten right now. So this is kind of what the
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Speaker 2: problem is in markets. Sell everything day. Well, here's what happens.
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Speaker 2: So let's say that you are deciding that you want
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Speaker 2: to get into the silver game. MIC You're like, I'm
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Speaker 2: gonna be a silver back gorilla. I don't know if
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Speaker 2: that's what they're calling themselves, but I figured if you
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Speaker 2: should do if you were the apes, then shouldn't you
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Speaker 2: be the silver backs? You know, I'll buy it. So
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Speaker 2: you're like, Okay, I'm gonna do this, and of course
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Speaker 2: you're not just gonna do it, you know, with your
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Speaker 2: own money. You're gonna be like, no, I need to
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Speaker 2: borrow money in order to do this because I want
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Speaker 2: leverage because it's going up so fast. That's you know
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Speaker 2: what people say, And here's what happens. Then, eventually, when
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Speaker 2: this market gets out of whack in terms of the
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Speaker 2: size of the moves, all of the big silver exchanges
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Speaker 2: basically say, Okay, we need more collateral in order to
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Speaker 2: back this because this could go bad and we don't
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Speaker 2: want to be so left holding the bag with your
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Speaker 2: borrowed money. That doesn't feel good to us. And pretty
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Speaker 2: much it's a combination of that coupled with you get
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Speaker 2: a downward move and people start either liquidating or being
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Speaker 2: forced to liquidate because they can't meet the margin requirements,
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Speaker 2: and that cascades. What then happens is they say, Okay,
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Speaker 2: in order to meet those margin requirements, I gotta sell
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Speaker 2: other stuff. Because I'm not gonna sell my silver because
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Speaker 2: it's down ten percent from when I bought it. I
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Speaker 2: gotta sell some of my other stuff. So I'm gonna
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Speaker 2: liquidate my S and P five hundred I'm gonna sell
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Speaker 2: my small caps. I'm gonna do this in that and
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Speaker 2: this is how this volatility spills over into different places.
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Speaker 2: You could see this building for the last week or two,
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Speaker 2: and quite honestly, it was only a matter of time
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Speaker 2: before we had a day like this.
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Speaker 3: By the way, crypto also bitcoins off about five and
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Speaker 3: a third percent.
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Speaker 2: Can we talk about bitcoin for a second, Oh, i'd
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Speaker 2: love to. You know what, the interesting thing about bitcoin
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Speaker 2: over the last couple weeks is not a lot. It
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Speaker 2: hasn't gone up, but it's still has gone down. Oh
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Speaker 2: that's nice, like for all to talk about digital gold.
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Speaker 2: There's been no bitcoin excitement to the upside recently. It
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Speaker 2: hasn't gone parabolic with gold. It's just been sitting at
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Speaker 2: like ninety thousand dollars a coin. And again, I don't
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Speaker 2: like do anything with these money, Like I don't have
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Speaker 2: any crypto. I don't. I don't understand it. Like it's
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Speaker 2: not that I don't understand it, but I don't like
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Speaker 2: pay attention to it. But it does catch my eye
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Speaker 2: when you're like, hey, gold and other precious metals are
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Speaker 2: going nuts and crypto can't get out of its own way.
6:29
Speaker 2: That's kind of interesting to me. Other things moving today.
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Speaker 2: Crude oil up to twenty five a barrel on West
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Speaker 2: Text Intermediate to sixty five forty six this on renewed
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Speaker 2: Iran tensions. We will discuss that basically right now, because
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Speaker 2: that's our top story for the hour. Bloomberg Brent crude
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Speaker 2: hits seventy a barrel, so I gave you West Text Intermediate,
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Speaker 2: but Brent is back over seventy as Trump ramps up
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Speaker 2: Iran threats. And that's that's the headline there. And here's
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Speaker 2: the thing is when you look at the amount, just
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Speaker 2: the sheer volume of military assets that are moving into
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Speaker 2: that region, you don't really usually do that if nothing's
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Speaker 2: gonna happen. You know, like we saw this last summer
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Speaker 2: when the US ended up conducting bombing runs on Iranian
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Speaker 2: nuclear facilities. We saw this earlier this year when the
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Speaker 2: US decided to go and capture Venezuela and President Maduro.
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Speaker 2: When you're talking about like literally reallocating multiple carrier groups
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Speaker 2: and support staff and things like that, You're talking about
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Speaker 2: moving tens of thousands of people at billions of dollars
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Speaker 2: of cost. You don't just do that usually if nothing's
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Speaker 2: going to happen. I say, usually like to leave myself
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Speaker 2: an out because, like, quite honestly, it feels obvious that
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Speaker 2: something is coming here and markets are starting to sniff
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Speaker 2: it out.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been interesting because Netanyahu has not been as
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Speaker 3: enthusiastic about it's this time around as he normally is,
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Speaker 3: so that piece has been interesting. But again with everything
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Speaker 3: else going on in Iran. I know the Guardian reported
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Speaker 3: the other day that potentially thirty thousand dead in those
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Speaker 3: protests in Iran. I know that's not directly what this
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Speaker 3: is about, but we don't really have a sense of
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Speaker 3: what's going on in Iran quite on it. Yeah, and
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Speaker 3: they shut down the internet since well before that, and
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Speaker 3: everything from there is pure rumor.
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Speaker 2: As someone who follows people that are very as plugged
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Speaker 2: in as you can get to what's going on in Iran,
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Speaker 2: no one has any idea what's actually happening, right, It
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Speaker 2: is basically the message like it's nothing good is happening,
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Speaker 2: but we don't know. The scale of the bad is
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Speaker 2: pretty much where it is. So you've got crude oil
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Speaker 2: moving up triple a national average for gas prices still
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Speaker 2: hanging out in the high two eighties. But if we
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Speaker 2: continue to get oil back in that sixty five a
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Speaker 2: barrel that stays there for any period of time. We're
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Speaker 2: heading back into the low threes on gas prices, you know,
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Speaker 2: within the next week or two. So we'll see how
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Speaker 2: this plays out. Again. The conventional wisdom that has quite honestly,
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Speaker 2: like in financial markets paid off very well for the
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Speaker 2: last fifteen twenty years, is anytime geopolitical risk ramps up,
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Speaker 2: if you fade it, you've been right because nothing like
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Speaker 2: meaningful has actually developed that has impacted markets from a
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Speaker 2: geopolitical risk perspective.
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Speaker 3: I mean, remember even when we struck Iran, we've been
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Speaker 3: a combination of geopolitical tensions and markets did not react.
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Speaker 2: To be fair. And this is the markets were closed.
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Speaker 2: It was a Friday night, yep, you know, so tact
9:45
Speaker 2: some of this is like you look at it and
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Speaker 2: it's like, okay, like we're heading into another weekend? Is
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Speaker 2: this when you see something? So these are the things
9:52
Speaker 2: that you kind of think about on this. Let's take
9:54
Speaker 2: a quick break when we come back. We've got the
9:56
Speaker 2: trivia answer. No, we're gonna do a trivia question because
9:59
Speaker 2: we haven't we have done that yet. Right, Let's do
10:01
Speaker 2: the answer first, and then the question second, Karnak, Yes,
10:06
Speaker 2: let's do that, Tucker. Can we actually do that? Not today?
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Speaker 2: Can we do it one day at least where we
10:13
Speaker 2: give an answer and people have to guess the question.
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Speaker 2: Maybe maybe I don't know, what do you mean? Maybe
10:18
Speaker 2: we could we could not. Okay, let's take a quick
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Speaker 2: break and when we come back, we won't do that today,
10:25
Speaker 2: but we will do regular trivia right after.
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Speaker 2: Piece in the Wall Street Journal actually a couple talking
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Speaker 2: about the weakness and the dollar that we've been seeing here.
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Speaker 2: The first one is titled a weaker dollar has always
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Speaker 2: been part of Trump's plan, and yes it has. If
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Speaker 2: if you were to go back and take a look
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Speaker 2: at the dollar index during President Trump's first term, which
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Speaker 2: you know, some people may have done it at some point,
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Speaker 2: you know, I don't know anytime, what you would have
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Speaker 2: seen was that during the first year and change of
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Speaker 2: that term, the dollar knicks fell from one hundred and
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Speaker 2: three down to eighty eight, fifteen percent weakening of the dollar,
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Speaker 2: which is why, again some people I don't know who
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Speaker 2: might have said, hey, maybe that's something you could expect
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Speaker 2: to see in President Trump's second term as well. And
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Speaker 2: lo and behold, Michael. In the last year and change,
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Speaker 2: the dollar index has fallen from one hundred and ten
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Speaker 2: down to ninety six. My math is iffy, but that's
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Speaker 2: about a fourteen percent change, almost in line with what
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Speaker 2: we saw during the first year of his first term. Yeah, look,
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Speaker 2: I think it is.
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Speaker 3: I think it's pretty clearly right in line with one
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Speaker 3: of his core fundamental views, which is that he would
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Speaker 3: like to see the US return to an exporting economy
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Speaker 3: that's heavy in manufacturing and a cheaper dollar lines right
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Speaker 3: up with that. The problem is that it's not what
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Speaker 3: we are right now. We are a we are a industry.
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Speaker 3: We are a country that is dominated by services and
13:52
Speaker 3: leads the way in a whole bunch of high tech
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Speaker 3: services in particular. But to this point, I think a
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Speaker 3: Weeker dollar does conform with his view on tariffs and
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Speaker 3: many other subjects.
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Speaker 2: And this is the crux of the issue is, Look,
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Speaker 2: if you want to get to a position where you
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Speaker 2: can you know, manufacture more in the US and also
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Speaker 2: produce more in terms of the natural resources that we've
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Speaker 2: kind of offshort as well in terms of you know,
14:15
Speaker 2: mining and stuff like that, a Weeker dollar helps you
14:19
Speaker 2: get there. But here's here are the questions that you
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Speaker 2: then have to answer. Okay, if my dollar is weakening,
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Speaker 2: all of those foreign investors who have bought my bonds
14:27
Speaker 2: and equities losing money, they're now losing money. And what
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Speaker 2: do I get in terms of like new capital flows
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Speaker 2: coming in and do people want to own those in
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Speaker 2: the same quantities? Because if I'm a European investor who
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Speaker 2: buys a bond for one hundred dollars and says, okay,
14:43
Speaker 2: the exchange rate is you know, a dollar is you know,
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Speaker 2: you know, a dollar third, you know one point three euro. Okay,
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Speaker 2: if all of a sudden, now we're you know, in
14:53
Speaker 2: a situation where hey, like I've got you know, further
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Speaker 2: weakness on that dollar, and so a dollar doesn't buy
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Speaker 2: one point three euro anymore. It's you know, you know,
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Speaker 2: we're running into a situation where I'm not getting as
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Speaker 2: much money coming back, and so that becomes part of
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Speaker 2: a problem to which you say, okay, well can you
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Speaker 2: finance it domestically? And the answer is, well, if people
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Speaker 2: are willing to save more and invest more into those bonds,
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Speaker 2: then yes, But do interest rates have to go up
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Speaker 2: in order to incentivize them to do so? Maybe one
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Speaker 2: thing I know we're great at here in the US
15:23
Speaker 2: is saving And the other piece is, hey, if you're
15:26
Speaker 2: increasing the savings rate, you're reducing consumption. Does that slow
15:29
Speaker 2: the US economy and doing so? So, there's all these
15:31
Speaker 2: different moving pieces that make that transition difficult even in
15:36
Speaker 2: the best of circumstances. I'm not saying it will or
15:38
Speaker 2: won't work, but these are the things that you have
15:40
Speaker 2: to pay attention to.
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Speaker 3: There's plenty of room for debate around what's better for
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Speaker 3: certain sectors of the economy in the United States, it's
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Speaker 3: a stronger or weaker dollar. Scott Besen has been very
15:49
Speaker 3: hesitant to come out there and say actually, he's directly
15:52
Speaker 3: contradicted this by saying, no, we do not want a
15:54
Speaker 3: weeker dollar. This administration is in favor of a strong dollar,
15:57
Speaker 3: although you know, facts are not quite an evidence there.
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Speaker 3: I think one thing that almost everyone would agree on, though,
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Speaker 3: is you don't want a volatile dollar. Yes, and some
16:06
Speaker 3: you've had a volatile dollar over the last year. Yeah,
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Speaker 3: fifteen percent moving the dollar is a substantial move for
16:14
Speaker 3: the world's reserve currency and the largest bond market in
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Speaker 3: the world.
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Speaker 2: It is. But like these things also, so the fifteen
16:23
Speaker 2: percent over one year is big, but it's not unprecedented.
16:27
Speaker 2: Great like just to give you, like just as a
16:29
Speaker 2: couple like examples. In twenty ten, this was, you know,
16:33
Speaker 2: the year after the financial crisis, the dollar index rallied
16:36
Speaker 2: from seventy four to eighty eight. That's a twenty percent appreciation,
16:39
Speaker 2: and then gave that all back a year later. Yep,
16:42
Speaker 2: in twenty fourteen, the dollar index went from seventy eight
16:45
Speaker 2: up to one hundred. So you know, twenty five percent
16:48
Speaker 2: appreciation in about a year, and you know that was
16:53
Speaker 2: again something just that happened over you know, an extended
16:56
Speaker 2: period of time. The ones that get disconcerting are the
16:59
Speaker 2: ones where again you've got like big move in a
17:03
Speaker 2: short period of time, like this three percent move in
17:05
Speaker 2: a week. Okay, like that's that's kind of you know,
17:08
Speaker 2: dodgy like that. That's a problem. And the other thing
17:11
Speaker 2: that always spooks investors is typically what you get is, Okay,
17:17
Speaker 2: I'm seeing a stronger dollar, which tends to also, you know,
17:22
Speaker 2: drive capital into my bonds. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm
17:27
Speaker 2: saying a weaker dollar, which tends to drive capital you know. Okay,
17:32
Speaker 2: bond yields follow that dollar weakness. Ye, the concerning thing
17:36
Speaker 2: last spring was you had the dollar selling off and
17:40
Speaker 2: bond selling off. It's like, hey, I've got yields going
17:43
Speaker 2: up to entice more investors to buy, and the dollar
17:46
Speaker 2: is still getting whacked. Yep, that's what you don't want
17:49
Speaker 2: to see important context here, right. The temptation here is
17:53
Speaker 2: to think about the dollar index in the same way
17:55
Speaker 2: you would about a company stock price, and that's just
17:57
Speaker 2: not the right way to think about it, because now
17:58
Speaker 2: what you're talking about here is an extra change rate.
18:00
Speaker 2: So as much as we might be focused on what
18:03
Speaker 2: in the United States might be causing this weakening of
18:05
Speaker 2: the dollar, you also have to talk about what might
18:08
Speaker 2: be strengthening other currencies like the Euro, like the yen,
18:11
Speaker 2: et cetera.
18:11
Speaker 3: And there's plenty going on there as well. That's a
18:13
Speaker 3: contributing factor.
18:15
Speaker 2: PC Here in the Wall Street Journal and US companies
18:17
Speaker 2: are still slashing jobs to reverse pandemic hiring boom quite honestly,
18:22
Speaker 2: like they just stop. Like it's look, job growth is
18:26
Speaker 2: pretty close to flat right now. But I think that
18:30
Speaker 2: it's important to note we got weekly jobles claims again
18:33
Speaker 2: this morning. The continuing claims came in right in line
18:37
Speaker 2: with last year. There is now a three week story
18:40
Speaker 2: in Continuing claim saying hey, they're not growing anymore. Is
18:43
Speaker 2: that enough for me to say, hey, everything's all good.
18:46
Speaker 2: Not quite. You need to see it last a little
18:48
Speaker 2: bit longer, and you need to see it confirmed with
18:51
Speaker 2: other data sources as well. You can't just have one
18:53
Speaker 2: that comes through. But I gotta be honest, I think
18:57
Speaker 2: we may be starting to see green shoots in the
18:59
Speaker 2: labor mark get based on what we're seeing in the
19:01
Speaker 2: Weekly jobless claimed side of things. And if that's true,
19:05
Speaker 2: then all these pieces about you know, oh the US
19:07
Speaker 2: labor market you're fighting the last battle. Then yeah, like
19:09
Speaker 2: that's not it anymore. If this is for real, well know,
19:13
Speaker 2: by the end of February. If it's for real or.
19:14
Speaker 3: No, I'm not telling you to you know, have no
19:17
Speaker 3: concern about your job, especially if you work for some
19:19
Speaker 3: of these companies that are announcing layoffs. I am saying
19:21
Speaker 3: that if you don't work for one of those companies,
19:22
Speaker 3: this is not a great indication of the health of
19:24
Speaker 3: the labor market.
19:25
Speaker 2: No quick break here. When we come back, we've got
19:27
Speaker 2: the Trivia Answer and Wall Street.
19:29
Speaker 1: Watch, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
19:44
Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
19:48
Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete
19:54
Speaker 1: look at what's moving market so far today right here
19:57
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Networks.
20:00
Speaker 4: Dan wall Street highlighted by a sell off in the
20:03
Speaker 4: tech sector as investors react to FED Chairman drum Pol's
20:07
Speaker 4: remarks at the conclusion of the FEDS meeting yesterday where
20:09
Speaker 4: the Central Bank kept interest rates steady, and of course
20:12
Speaker 4: we are digesting big tech earnings from Microsoft Meta and Tesla.
20:17
Speaker 4: Right now, the Dow is down about a third of
20:21
Speaker 4: a percent, SMP five hundred down by one percent, Tech
20:24
Speaker 4: heavy NASDAK down by two percent, RUSS two thousand is
20:29
Speaker 4: down by about three quarters of a percent. Ten Your
20:31
Speaker 4: Treasure reeled down one basis point at four point two
20:33
Speaker 4: three nine percent, and crude oil up three and a
20:36
Speaker 4: half percent higher, now trading at sixty five dollars and
20:40
Speaker 4: forty eight cents a barrel. Meta among the big tech
20:43
Speaker 4: winners on the day after the social media giant reported
20:46
Speaker 4: record quarterly sales, where it saw a twenty four percent
20:49
Speaker 4: increase year over year. Meta also reported a massive increase
20:52
Speaker 4: in projected twenty twenty six spending, that stock jumping over
20:56
Speaker 4: seven percent. On the other hand, Microsoft sinking twelve percent
21:00
Speaker 4: now after the tech giant posted a solid quarterly revenue
21:04
Speaker 4: but higher than expected spending on data centers. Meanwhile, Tesla
21:09
Speaker 4: posted better than expected fourth quarter results. However, the EV
21:12
Speaker 4: makers revenue for the year dropped three percent, marking the
21:15
Speaker 4: first time on record the company has recorded in annual decline.
21:19
Speaker 4: Tesla also announced to cancel two EV models and said
21:22
Speaker 4: it would shift toward robotics. Tesla down by two percent.
21:27
Speaker 4: IBM jumping six percent after it notch higher quarterly revenue
21:31
Speaker 4: as businesses moved to implement AI in more areas elsewhere.
21:34
Speaker 4: Caterpillar stock rising over three percent after the machinery maker
21:38
Speaker 4: posted stronger than expected results. Royal Caribbean shares rallying fifteen
21:42
Speaker 4: percent after the cruise line operators adjusted earnings, forecast beat estimates,
21:47
Speaker 4: as onboard spending rows. And after today's close we'll see
21:51
Speaker 4: more tech earnings from Apple. Visa will also post their results.
21:56
Speaker 4: I'm Tucker Silvan. That is Wall Street Watch and the
21:59
Speaker 4: trivia question we ask and the prize prior segment was
22:02
Speaker 4: what was the name of Thomas Paine's most famous written work?
22:05
Speaker 4: It will be common Sense. Jennifer for mash p Mass
22:09
Speaker 4: is our winner today taking on the Financial Exchange Show
22:11
Speaker 4: t shirt. We play trivia every day here in the
22:14
Speaker 4: Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial looks Change Show,
22:18
Speaker 4: dot com.
22:19
Speaker 2: Pres and Barons healthcare inflation can be a runaway train
22:23
Speaker 2: in retirement. Here's how to prepare well. How do you prepare? Mike?
22:29
Speaker 3: Expect your cost to go up in an exorbitant amount
22:31
Speaker 3: every year, and prepare for the fact that it's gonna
22:34
Speaker 3: be really difficult to keep up with. There's not a
22:36
Speaker 3: great answer here, Chuck. Quite honestly, you cannot prepare by
22:39
Speaker 3: trying to control your healthcare costs. It's largely out of
22:42
Speaker 3: your control. Like most of inflation is, you can't exactly
22:45
Speaker 3: control your spending in this area. It's not exactly easy
22:49
Speaker 3: to shop around for a discounted price, and a lot
22:52
Speaker 3: of these things are just locked in by the government, right,
22:55
Speaker 3: I mean Part B premiums four twenty twenty six for
22:58
Speaker 3: all those people on Medicare, they already know this. I'm sorry,
23:00
Speaker 3: I'm telling you again, but they went up by nearly
23:02
Speaker 3: eighteen bucks a month this year. It's a ten percent
23:05
Speaker 3: increase year over year in your Medicare Part B premiums,
23:08
Speaker 3: and that is entirely out of your control. It doesn't
23:10
Speaker 3: matter if you shop around your policy. That is going
23:12
Speaker 3: to be entirely out of your control. And so really
23:16
Speaker 3: the best thing to do is factor it in if
23:19
Speaker 3: you I mean certainly, if you're eligible while still working
23:21
Speaker 3: for things like a health savings account. Those can be
23:24
Speaker 3: really helpful in terms of the vehicles to save into.
23:27
Speaker 3: But this is one of those areas where you really
23:30
Speaker 3: have no ability to control the cost it is. It's
23:33
Speaker 3: not like your entertainment budget. It's not like your food
23:35
Speaker 3: budget or your cell phone budget where you can shop
23:37
Speaker 3: around and get those things down. And it's not even
23:39
Speaker 3: like your traditional homeowner's insurance budget where you can shop
23:42
Speaker 3: around and get those things substantially down. I think one
23:46
Speaker 3: of the bigger issues that I'm sure you run across, Jock,
23:49
Speaker 3: and I run across regularly is that investors and retirees
23:54
Speaker 3: specifically tend to be very concerned about a market downturn.
24:00
Speaker 3: And I understand why they are scary. They you know,
24:02
Speaker 3: it's oftentimes very quick. You see your wealth wiped out
24:07
Speaker 3: in a short period of time, and depending on how
24:10
Speaker 3: your investments are allocated, that can be quite frightening.
24:13
Speaker 2: I continue to.
24:14
Speaker 3: Say that much many more people that are heading towards retirement,
24:19
Speaker 3: the bigger risk for them is inflation and not market volatility. Again,
24:25
Speaker 3: sounds kind of like a crazy statement given how little
24:28
Speaker 3: we're able to save, but I think many, many people
24:31
Speaker 3: are at more risk from runaway inflation on things that
24:34
Speaker 3: they cannot control than they are. You know, a portfolio
24:38
Speaker 3: that's way too messed up in terms of allocations, sinking
24:41
Speaker 3: them well.
24:42
Speaker 2: It's it's no different from I mean to tie this
24:45
Speaker 2: back to healthcare. The stuff that scares everyone is, oh,
24:49
Speaker 2: I'm going to die in you know, a lightning striker,
24:50
Speaker 2: a shark attack. We don't often just stay up at
24:54
Speaker 2: night worried about our arteries hardening, but that's what usually
24:57
Speaker 2: gets most of us, you know it. It's the same
25:00
Speaker 2: thing when you talk about financial planning. The stuff everyone
25:03
Speaker 2: worries about is, oh, what if you know, like the
25:06
Speaker 2: market goes to zero, or what if the dollar is
25:09
Speaker 2: no longer the reserve currency, or what if you know,
25:12
Speaker 2: I have to go and run for the hill. Like
25:14
Speaker 2: that's the stuff that we worry about. The stuff that
25:17
Speaker 2: actually impacts us is, hey, during my retirement, inflation ran
25:21
Speaker 2: at three and a half percent a year instead of
25:23
Speaker 2: two and a half, and I didn't prepare effectively for that,
25:29
Speaker 2: or my healthcare costs went up at five percent a
25:31
Speaker 2: year instead of three. That's the stuff that is not
25:36
Speaker 2: sexy to think about because it sounds like, oh, it's
25:38
Speaker 2: just like a one or two percent difference, But when
25:41
Speaker 2: you're talking about a twenty to thirty year retirement, that
25:43
Speaker 2: stuff adds up more quickly than you'd think.
25:46
Speaker 3: By the way this doesn't look like it was a
25:47
Speaker 3: one time thing. On medicare, experts are expecting Part B
25:51
Speaker 3: premiums to rise by an average of seven percent a
25:53
Speaker 3: year through the next decade.
25:54
Speaker 2: It's kind of not good.
25:56
Speaker 3: Drug premiums five percent, metagap supplements eight percent, Like this
25:59
Speaker 3: is not expected to come down in any meaningful way.
26:04
Speaker 3: And so if you are preparing for retirement and trying
26:06
Speaker 3: to sort these things out, you know, perhaps you've got
26:10
Speaker 3: a plan that really does take this into account and
26:12
Speaker 3: factors in what if the inflation rates are higher. Maybe
26:15
Speaker 3: you're a do it yourself and you're trying to model
26:17
Speaker 3: this stuff out on your own, and you just want
26:19
Speaker 3: a second opinion. Maybe you have been saving, but you're
26:23
Speaker 3: just using some of those tools that are available to
26:25
Speaker 3: you through your employer saying hey, you know, with so
26:27
Speaker 3: security and retirement income, this is where you should land.
26:31
Speaker 3: It takes more than that, especially if you have not
26:35
Speaker 3: done a full detailed plan. If you would like a
26:38
Speaker 3: second opinion on what you're doing now, if you'd like
26:41
Speaker 3: to sit down with somebody and start to plan this
26:43
Speaker 3: stuff out for your future, call the folks at Armstrong
26:45
Speaker 3: Advisory Group. We have offices located throughout New England, happy
26:49
Speaker 3: to meet you in person. We can do it over
26:51
Speaker 3: zoom if you're not in the area. If you just
26:53
Speaker 3: can't make it to an in person meeting, the numbers
26:55
Speaker 3: eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one. You
26:58
Speaker 3: can also go to our website book of Time for
27:00
Speaker 3: us to call you back at Armstrong Advisory dot com.
27:03
Speaker 3: But that phone number again eight hundred three nine three
27:07
Speaker 3: for zero zero one.
27:08
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
27:11
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
27:13
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
27:17
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
27:19
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong make contact you to offer investment
27:22
Speaker 1: advisory services.
27:24
Speaker 2: Mike, I want to hop ahead just a bit, just
27:26
Speaker 2: because it kind of dovetails into what we're talking about
27:28
Speaker 2: in a different way. It's this piece from Bloomberg, what
27:31
Speaker 2: does responsible investing even mean anymore? And the answer in
27:37
Speaker 2: my opinion, First, I'll give the crappy one. It depends
27:42
Speaker 2: because it really does. Responsible investing, in my opinion, is
27:46
Speaker 2: investing your money in such a way where if the
27:50
Speaker 2: unexpected thing happens in those markets, or if the unfortunate
27:54
Speaker 2: thing happens in those markets, your ability to continue your
28:00
Speaker 2: more current level of expenses is not impacted. That's how
28:05
Speaker 2: I agree.
28:05
Speaker 3: That's how I would think about responsible investing. That is
28:08
Speaker 3: not seemingly how Alison Schraeger from Bloomberg thinks about responsible investing.
28:12
Speaker 2: How does she seem to think about it?
28:13
Speaker 3: Well, I focused on these three quote simple truths that
28:18
Speaker 3: she thinks at least previously existed. One is that US
28:21
Speaker 3: bonds are the world's safest asset.
28:22
Speaker 2: Okay.
28:23
Speaker 3: Another is that private investments offer higher returns and less volatility.
28:27
Speaker 3: And a third is that the so called ESG strategy
28:30
Speaker 3: is the best way to manage long term climate risks.
28:33
Speaker 3: And I just take particular issue with numbers two and
28:36
Speaker 3: three because I don't know that I don't know that
28:39
Speaker 3: the majority of the finance community actually agrees with the
28:44
Speaker 3: last two of those. I think generally speaking, you know,
28:46
Speaker 3: for five decades or more. Point Number one that when
28:51
Speaker 3: the you know what hits the fan, the US bonds
28:54
Speaker 3: have historically been the safest asset in the world is
28:57
Speaker 3: a you know, core belief that many in the finance
29:00
Speaker 3: community still hold. The other two just really sound like
29:03
Speaker 3: they're putting other people's priorities onto what she deems the
29:10
Speaker 3: kind of status quo of investing.
29:12
Speaker 2: All right, private investments may offer higher returns and less volatility,
29:17
Speaker 2: they can also offer very much lower returns when those
29:20
Speaker 2: go bad, and the volatility reduction is not a real one.
29:25
Speaker 2: It's just they're typically only a mark to market either
29:27
Speaker 2: you know, once or maybe four times a year, and
29:30
Speaker 2: so you just don't see the day to day volatility.
29:32
Speaker 2: It still is there, you're just not seeing it. It's
29:35
Speaker 2: no different from Mike. If you went to go and
29:37
Speaker 2: try to sell your house every day of the year,
29:40
Speaker 2: you'd probably get a different price every day, probably, but
29:43
Speaker 2: you don't try to and so you're like, no, my
29:45
Speaker 2: house is worth this. Well, it doesn't mean the volatility
29:48
Speaker 2: didn't exist. It's just you didn't try to sell it
29:50
Speaker 2: those other three hundred and sixty four days. The other piece,
29:55
Speaker 2: I'm not really sure. Look, here's the thing about ESG strategies.
30:00
Speaker 2: They're generally dumb. Okay, Like here people think that like
30:08
Speaker 2: ESG was like this whole thing. It's like, oh, they're
30:11
Speaker 2: trying to like change the world to like take it
30:14
Speaker 2: over and do this. No, here's what they were trying
30:16
Speaker 2: to do. They were trying to earn a higher fee
30:18
Speaker 2: for not really doing anything different like that. That's the
30:22
Speaker 2: dirty truth of most ESG investing is that it basically
30:26
Speaker 2: held the same stuff as non ESG investments, maybe in
30:30
Speaker 2: a little bit of a different mix, maybe with some
30:31
Speaker 2: window dressing on it, and then they would charge you
30:34
Speaker 2: way higher fees. Good you can get it, you know,
30:38
Speaker 2: like if I were to look at I'm just pulling
30:41
Speaker 2: it up right now here we go. This is just
30:45
Speaker 2: a random USA ESG aware etf. Okay, I'm not gonna
30:50
Speaker 2: say this specific one, but here are the big companies
30:53
Speaker 2: that are in it. Here are the largest ones Tesla
30:56
Speaker 2: in video, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon brought Meta, Tesla, Eli, Lilly, JP, Morgan, Chase, Visa,
31:04
Speaker 2: which like those are the biggest companies in the S
31:06
Speaker 2: and P five hundred.
31:07
Speaker 3: Anyways, and if you want to completely contradict the whole
31:10
Speaker 3: narrative on ESG, what single industry has been blamed for
31:14
Speaker 3: burning more energy to get the AI to get their
31:18
Speaker 3: industry going than any in the last year. It's been
31:20
Speaker 3: the AI sector. And so these things are all just
31:23
Speaker 3: value judgments. And if you're I'm not saying that ESG
31:27
Speaker 3: in and of itself is good or bad. But understand
31:32
Speaker 3: that anytime you are putting your personal values on investing
31:36
Speaker 3: over making money, that's what ESG investing is.
31:40
Speaker 2: Well, and it might not be what you think it is.
31:42
Speaker 2: Also like that, That's my point.
31:44
Speaker 3: On people are oftentimes surprised when they look under the
31:46
Speaker 3: hood of what one of these funds actually represents.
31:48
Speaker 2: I'm just looking at this as a comparison. The top Yeah,
31:55
Speaker 2: the top eight holdings are the exact same as the
31:59
Speaker 2: S and P five hundred, almost the exact same proportion.
32:02
Speaker 3: People think that they are investing in solar panels and
32:05
Speaker 3: butterfly sanctuaries, when in actually out they're investing in the
32:08
Speaker 3: same companies that.
32:09
Speaker 2: And this fund that I was looking at. The expense
32:13
Speaker 2: ratio on it is fifteen basis points point one five percent.
32:17
Speaker 2: The same company offers an S and P five hundred
32:19
Speaker 2: ETF at three basis points. Like I said, good deal
32:23
Speaker 2: if you can get it. Again, the ESG fund is
32:25
Speaker 2: not trying to change the world. They're trying to change
32:27
Speaker 2: the fees. Let's take a quick break. When we return,
32:32
Speaker 2: let's see, Oh yes, stack roulette, we'll do that next.
32:35
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33:44
Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for me for stack roulette? Chuck,
33:46
Speaker 2: I've got a question for you for stack roulette.
33:49
Speaker 3: How much do you think you need to be worth
33:51
Speaker 3: to be buying a ten million dollar home today?
33:54
Speaker 2: Uh? Ten million dollar home? Ten million plus? Right?
33:57
Speaker 1: Like?
33:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, how much you need to be worth? Or how
33:59
Speaker 2: much do I income do you need? I think you
34:01
Speaker 2: either take your pick. I think you either need net
34:04
Speaker 2: worth of fifty million dollars or income of ten million.
34:12
Speaker 2: You probably need at least two million, maybe two and
34:14
Speaker 2: a half million in income.
34:15
Speaker 3: So in any case, we're talking about the top what
34:18
Speaker 3: one quarter of one percent of the income?
34:21
Speaker 2: And where about jah?
34:22
Speaker 3: Yes, why is the Wall Street Journal telling me that
34:24
Speaker 3: the housing market is slumping? Other than for sales of
34:27
Speaker 3: ten million dollar plus homes?
34:28
Speaker 2: Who is this for?
34:29
Speaker 3: How many subscribers to the Wall Street Journal earn more
34:32
Speaker 3: than two and a half million dollars per year?
34:35
Speaker 2: Well, Michael, here's the thing. Don't you remember last year
34:39
Speaker 2: the couple that was profiled on Long Island. Of course
34:42
Speaker 2: I did, like built the house for their dog and like,
34:44
Speaker 2: oh the dog loved it, but then he started to
34:46
Speaker 2: not like it. So now we're moving who is this for?
34:50
Speaker 2: Does it?
34:50
Speaker 3: What does this help me understand about the state of
34:53
Speaker 3: the housing market or the economy that home sales that
34:56
Speaker 3: are worth that close that more than ten million dollars
34:59
Speaker 3: are jumped being across the country recently.
35:02
Speaker 2: Well, it helps you understand that there's a case shaped economy.
35:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, oh man, you know, I just I don't
35:10
Speaker 3: understand how this gets written.
35:11
Speaker 2: One other thing that I didn't realize. There's a chocolate
35:14
Speaker 2: tear that's profiled in here naturally, and he had bought, uh,
35:20
Speaker 2: he's recently bought a new property for around nine million dollars.
35:23
Speaker 2: How did he even make the cut for this article.
35:25
Speaker 2: I didn't realize there was that much money in chocolate.
35:27
Speaker 2: Keep the riff raff out of here, nine million dollars place.
35:30
Speaker 2: You know, it's in some cases activity picked up when
35:34
Speaker 2: prices finally came down. Placksin's client, Jonathan Graham, head of
35:37
Speaker 2: the premium chocolate brand Campartase, purchased a roughly nine million
35:41
Speaker 2: dollar la home in December. It was priced about fifteen
35:45
Speaker 2: million when it first came on the market in twenty
35:47
Speaker 2: twenty two, but it undergone numerous price cuts. Okay, so
35:50
Speaker 2: maybe the lead is actually buried here and chocolate. This
35:56
Speaker 2: is like good or bad. What I mean I am
35:58
Speaker 2: saying is this property sat for three years and took
36:01
Speaker 2: a forty markdown before it finally went Like, maybe it's
36:06
Speaker 2: not actually that robust of a market, Like just the
36:09
Speaker 2: price has had to come way down.
36:11
Speaker 3: If volume is increasing, then that is what I would expect. Again,
36:14
Speaker 3: I just don't think it's a relevant talking point to
36:15
Speaker 3: the majority of Americans. But sure, yeah, prices are going
36:18
Speaker 3: down again, like the instead of twenty million dollar homes,
36:22
Speaker 3: they had to write this article about ten million dollar homes.
36:24
Speaker 2: Yes, it's still insane, but it does seem like that
36:29
Speaker 2: market is correcting based on like some of the evidence
36:32
Speaker 2: in here. So I don't really know. Lululemon, remember they
36:37
Speaker 2: made uh see through leggings accidentally a few years back.
36:41
Speaker 2: They made him again recently. I just have to be honest,
36:45
Speaker 2: like this seems intentional at this point. I know they say, no,
36:50
Speaker 2: there's no such thing as bad press, but there's bad press.
36:55
Speaker 2: Quote from Bloomberg. In Lulu Lemon's view, customers simply weren't
36:58
Speaker 2: wearing their new leggings, right, Oh yeah, if they just
37:02
Speaker 2: sized up then pulled on a seamless, skin toned underwear.
37:06
Speaker 2: Before slipping into the one hundred and eight dollars a
37:08
Speaker 2: pair get low tights, they discover they could in fact
37:12
Speaker 2: get low without revealing too much. So you make a
37:16
Speaker 2: you make a product designed and marketed for people to
37:20
Speaker 2: do squats in, but then tell them you have to
37:24
Speaker 2: buy them differently from other pants. You're buying them wrong.
37:30
Speaker 2: You need to buy a size bigger and wear something
37:33
Speaker 2: underneath them. And that's how you do it.
37:36
Speaker 3: If you know that, I know that you watch a
37:38
Speaker 3: lot of cooking shows like I do. If you have
37:39
Speaker 3: to explain to somebody how you're supposed to eat the food,
37:42
Speaker 3: then you've already lost the battle. If you have to
37:44
Speaker 3: explain to somebody how you're supposed to wear the pants,
37:46
Speaker 3: then they're not the right pants.
37:48
Speaker 2: No, it's again. Pants typically have three steps at most,
37:53
Speaker 2: put on right leg, put on left leg, zip, and
37:56
Speaker 2: button at most. If they don't have If they have
38:00
Speaker 2: more steps than that, it's a problem. If they have fewer,
38:04
Speaker 2: it's good, but if they have more, it's a problem.
38:08
Speaker 2: Left right button markets remain in negative territory, but are
38:13
Speaker 2: off their lows sp now off one percent, now off
38:15
Speaker 2: a quarter percent Nasdaq off two percent. We'll see you tomorrow.
38:19
Speaker 2: To wrap up the week on the Financial Exchange