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Bankroll Management Tips · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:22
Hello everybody. Welcome to Targeting Winners
0:24
Episode 4. Darren, how are you doing
0:27
tonight? Good man.
0:28
About yourself. We're doing great.
0:31
It's been a long week, should be in New York right now.
0:34
But due to some unforeseen circumstances with some birds
0:38
hitting a plane and a bunch of storms in DC, had to pick up my
0:43
family at the DC airport and drive them home.
0:45
So and now I'm down in Florida so we're not together in the
0:48
same room yet doing these recordings.
0:49
But the other than that, everything's fine.
0:51
Family's great. So and also I also noticed we
0:56
pick up a listener can be great country of Denmark.
1:00
We have 99% of our listeners in the United States.
1:04
And I was like, well, what about the other 1%?
1:06
Click on it. Boom, Denmark, we're huge in
1:09
Denmark, huge. I want to know who who that guy
1:14
is. So Denmark, if you're out there,
1:16
send us an e-mail cfbdudes@yahoo.com.
1:19
I'm assuming it's a guy. Can't be a can't be a woman.
1:22
Could be. Well, my wife's a woman.
1:24
She lose with me. She never listens to me.
1:26
Yeah, but she dominates in fantasy football.
1:28
So I mean that that is that that's hard to deal with.
1:39
So. But I mean, I can't.
1:33
I can't imagine a woman halfway across the world will listen to
1:35
us. I mean, my wife doesn't even
1:37
listen to me, so. So we're getting ready.
1:42
We are, Oh my God, a couple weeks away, 2 1/2 weeks, 3 weeks
1:46
away from the first week of college football.
1:49
And so it's like almost Christmas.
1:52
So now we're gonna talk about today, we're gonna talk about
1:56
some bankroll management. We're also gonna do some couple
1:59
news topics other than Denmark, which are big news of our our
2:03
podcast. Starting next year, the PAC 12
2:08
will be the PAC 4. Looks like.
2:09
I don't think that's gonna qualify for any conference
2:13
championship, so the futures ought to be really easy on that
2:15
next year, as in we won't be doing 1.
2:18
So what other news topics you got so far?
2:23
Yeah, I mean, like you said on the topic of realignment, I
2:25
don't know what those last four teams in the pack four or I'm
2:29
already calling back for what the PAC 12 are going to do.
2:32
You've got Stanford, Cal, Washington State and Oregon
2:35
State. Even today, before we record, I
2:38
heard something about Stanford and California.
2:40
Looking at the ACC. Of course, when you think of the
2:44
Atlantic Coast Conference, you think Stanford.
2:46
Stanford's the first school that comes to mind, absolutely.
2:50
Talk of them maybe combining with the Mountain West.
2:53
I mean, there's so many things going on.
2:55
It seems like every day there's something new.
2:57
I'm literally just gonna wait for it to settle and.
3:01
Like you said, the conference preview should be great fun next
3:03
year. With the SEC having 16 teams,
3:05
the Big 10 having 18 teams, who even knows what's what's going
3:10
on with that? But what's weird is I always
3:12
thought with the conferences realigning that the ACC would
3:16
have been the first one to go. I would have thought, you know
3:19
the Big 10 would have taken everything north of Virginia
3:23
with, you know UNC and Duke to make that basketball thing and
3:27
then the SEC taking everything NC State, Wake Forest,
3:30
everything S going into the SEC and the ACC would have been no
3:34
more. But now you've got, you know
3:36
Oregon, Washington, UCLAUSC flying halfway across the
3:41
country every week to did not I I didn't see it coming.
3:45
I thought for sure it was the ACC would have been next.
3:47
Yeah, there is nothing better than a UCLA, Rutgers rivalry in
3:50
the Big 10 next year. I mean, come on, who hasn't been
3:53
waiting for that to happen? Can't wait for that line, yeah.
3:57
I mean, and that's one of the things that kind of stinks about
3:59
all this realignment. If you're a fan of college
4:01
football, like we were first before we got into betting on it
4:04
is, you know, rivalries are what made, you know, college football
4:08
kind of special. I mean, you know, this is the
4:10
last Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State.
4:14
Game. So I mean, I know my, our boy,
4:16
my gun, he's not happy about that.
4:17
But I mean, money talks, man. These schools are going to move
4:20
wherever they're getting paid the most.
4:22
And you know, it's unfortunate, but we already lost Oklahoma,
4:25
Nebraska a few years back. Yep, Yep, sure enough.
4:28
So who knows. But it's all about the almighty
4:31
dollar. We'll have to see if they do
4:33
anything in regards to the Football Playoff next year.
4:36
It's supposed to be 12 teams, but I mean, I guess that's going
4:40
to stay. But I mean, like, what happens
4:41
to the Rose Bowl? I mean, PAC 12 always send
4:44
somebody to the Rose Bowl. I know what's what's gonna
4:47
happen with that opening for Stanford, Oregon State.
4:51
Probably the best chance any of those for, I mean, right?
4:54
Stanford ain't getting there unless it becomes the pack one.
4:57
So I mean, but we'll see. Like I said, it always seems to
5:00
be a new development every day or two.
5:01
So I mean, it'll be here soon enough one way or the other.
5:05
We'll just wait and see when all the dust sails, what the
5:07
conferences look like and we'll worry about it then, I guess.
5:11
Right. But Speaking of the Big 10, we
5:13
got a couple news and notes here that just kind of a heads up and
5:15
how these items may or may not affect betting lines.
5:20
First of all, we all remember Pat Fitzgerald, 17 years at
5:23
Northwestern. He was let go.
5:26
Pretty disturbing hazing. Allegations and not getting into
5:30
them here, but there's more enough articles if you feel like
5:32
reading about it. We're not really team win total
5:36
players here. I think the highest plus number
5:39
I saw just yesterday was like plus 150.
5:42
If you've listened to any of our first three shows, you know 4 to
5:44
one's the smallest future we've actually taken so far and one of
5:48
us idiots bet something at like plus 5000.
5:51
But you know, that's another show.
5:54
So Northwestern's win total was 3 1/2 after Fitzgerald was let
5:58
go, replaced by their defensive coordinator David Braun.
6:01
It's now down at three. It looks like they're probably
6:04
only going to be favored in two games this year anyway.
6:07
I still don't see three wins on that schedule.
6:09
So if you are a win total better, you know the
6:13
recommendation, maybe look under three with Northwestern.
6:17
We do have a lot of QB battles that haven't been decided yet,
6:21
and a couple of them at some big name schools like Alabama and
6:24
Ohio State. Neither of those schools have
6:26
named a starting QB as of yet, so that's certainly something
6:31
we're going to keep an eye on. We discussed those teams
6:35
specifically in our first show and how we kind of felt it'd be
6:38
a little shaker than normal without a without a definite
6:41
starter, But to have neither of those programs have a starter at
6:44
this point. Maybe a little cause for worry,
6:47
but definitely going to be watching those and back to the
6:51
big the Big 10 here or I'm sorry, actually the Big 12 Iowa
6:56
State. I don't know if any of you
6:58
heard, but they had last year's QB Hunter Deckers apparently got
7:02
caught placing bets. And not just one or two bets.
7:07
366 bets from like 2021 to present some on his own team.
7:14
Now, while he hasn't officially been suspended, one would have
7:19
to assume he's probably done playing for Iowa State again.
7:24
If you're interested in their win total, it was 5 1/2.
7:27
It's now five. Like I said, no suspension is
7:30
beneficial, but pretty much in sports at any level, if you play
7:35
them, you're not allowed to bet on them.
7:37
So. He's probably facing a
7:40
suspension. He may show up at Incarnate Word
7:42
next year. I have no idea but.
7:44
He's probably done at Iowa State.
7:48
As far as those 366 bets he made, he wagered $2799.
7:55
And if you want to do some quick math, it's about $7.60 a bet.
7:59
So to kind of have that many bets, I don't know if he was
8:02
ahead or behind, but round of applause for his bankroll
8:06
management, So I mean. That's exquisite to make all
8:09
those into today's topic. It does.
8:12
And I mean Hunter, I'm sure you're listening cuz you're
8:14
probably not practicing. But you know if you wanna e-mail
8:19
us.cfbdudes@yahoo.com we would love to get you on the show to
8:23
talk some Big 12 matchups. So we can have your list then
8:26
guy at the same time. Exactly.
8:28
We could get all four of us on. I would love to know how college
8:31
football if it's popular in Denmark, but anyway.
8:34
So yeah, so bankroll management, we got a handful of tips.
8:38
You know, we're kind of in that Dead Space.
8:40
We got about, like Tim said a couple weeks before, we actually
8:43
have some games to talk about. But we assume at this point
8:48
you're ready to go. There's no action yet.
8:51
You've got your futures bets in. Well, we want you to be able to
8:56
make your initial deposit and not make any more for the rest
8:59
of the college football season, so.
9:01
We've failed. So we've gotten better at it.
9:04
So don't make our mistakes and we're going to kind of go
9:07
through some of our mistakes. We didn't make all of these.
9:10
Some are common sense, some you might not have thought of.
9:13
But Tim, what is the number one bankroll management tip we have?
9:17
Well, obviously you know, you see any commercial for any
9:20
betting site or a thing, you know, bet responsibly.
9:24
You want to use your disposable cash only.
9:27
You don't want to, you know, be betting your rent money, your
9:30
kids, you know, school supply money, their school clothes or
9:34
college tuition or anything like that.
9:36
You don't want a couple of large Italian guys showing up at your
9:39
door. You know, Moose and Rocco help
9:41
the judge find his wallet. So you want to avoid that.
9:44
So that that would be the first thing you don't want to get
9:47
behind. And because that's that's starts
9:50
the avalanche once you know if you're using money that you know
9:53
you really need to win with and you have a bad run off the bat
9:58
then boom now you're now you're chasing which we'll get to that
10:00
later. But the disposable cash only
10:03
lead with revenue, So that would be obviously the first one
10:07
because if you if that's the most important one because if
10:10
you mess up that the rest of the rules don't really matter
10:13
because you're not gonna have any money, it's.
10:15
Very difficult to watch college football when your TV doesn't
10:18
turn on because you have no electricity.
10:20
Exactly. We don't pay the cable bill.
10:23
Exactly. So yeah, that's definitely the
10:26
most important. I agree with you there, man.
10:28
So the second thing we have is once you have that bankroll
10:31
amount established, keep the bets small.
10:34
Remember, you're gonna have 60 to 65 games most Saturdays to
10:38
bet on so. 1 to 5% of whatever your starting bankroll is.
10:42
I don't care what your starting bankroll is like Tim said, it's
10:44
whatever you can you can afford to set aside that doesn't
10:47
jeopardize your well-being 1 to 5% of your bankroll every game.
10:51
Don't change it, just roll with that cuz I mean even if you bet
10:56
5% say you're starting with $1000 so that's what, 50 bucks a
11:00
game? Say you pick five games, you go
11:02
one in four, All right, You're down maybe net about 150 bucks.
11:06
Your bankroll still at 8:50. But if you're doing something
11:09
like 100 bucks a game and you go one in four, yeah, your
11:13
bankrolls are like 33% gone. And you're probably gonna end up
11:16
making another deposit, not being disciplined.
11:19
So 1 to 5% of your bankroll. And one thing you can do, and I
11:24
did this last year, was maybe every four weeks or so, take a
11:28
look at where your bankroll is at and if it's higher.
11:31
That percentage becomes a little bit more.
11:34
I mean, you may start off with a $20 bet.
11:36
You may make a hundred 150 bucks your first month using that same
11:39
percentage. Maybe you can bet you know 30.
11:42
Yeah, who knows. But just keep the same percent.
11:45
Or if you want to stay the same percent all along and do make a
11:47
profit, withdraw that profit. Well, the sports books will let
11:50
you so. And then start with whatever
11:52
your bankroll was again. So either of those ways are
11:55
fine, but keep the percentage the same.
11:58
Don't make it more than 5%. Ask yourself, what would Hunter
12:02
Deckers do? What would Hunter I mean,
12:04
honestly, we shouldn't even be here.
12:06
If Hunter had a podcast, we should probably be listening to
12:09
him. But to have almost 400 bets and
12:13
be it under $8 a bet, Hunter abides.
12:16
By rule #2, Without a question, the dude abides.
12:21
Tip 3. What's next?
12:23
Three. Let's have a no on the parlays
12:28
and teasers. There's a reason why they're
12:30
called teasers. There's a lot of moving parts,
12:33
you know, a lot you can have. You think you got all your bets
12:36
down or they're going to win. They're going to win.
12:38
And one guy coming in, he fumbles the ball on the 1 yard
12:41
line, it goes out of bounds. And then instead of covering the
12:43
spread, they're only winning by 5:00 instead of by 12:00.
12:47
And it's an easy way to make your bankroll disappear.
12:52
You know a lot of those hotels in Vegas?
12:54
They are built on parlay and teaser bets.
12:57
Agreed. So yeah, yeah.
12:58
So you're not going to hear us place any parlays or teaser bets
13:03
during the year. We're a single game.
13:05
We find where the money has the best chance to win, put it on
13:08
that one game and move along. So that's that would be my one
13:13
of my big tips is no parlays or teasers.
13:16
Yeah, I mean assuming standard, you know -110 juice, you have to
13:20
hit just under 53% of your plays just to break even.
13:23
So I mean you need to be better than 50% just you know, just
13:27
winning one game at a time, why make it harder on yourself by
13:29
trying to hit 234 or more in one single bed?
13:33
There's nothing worse than hit, you know, doing a three team
13:36
parlay, hitting your first two and losing that last one.
13:39
So I mean if you had done them singly.
13:41
You turn a profit you do them in a parlay you you win nothing.
13:44
So it's I know they're not sexy And you know the one guy on
13:48
Twitter who tells you, oh I got this three team parlay oh and I
13:52
hit it and I put this yeah he's he's no stop.
13:55
Just please. That's the one he hit.
13:57
He's not telling me about the seven that he lost.
13:59
Exactly 98% of gambling, Twitter X or whatever the hell they're
14:04
calling themselves this week. Yeah, that's a lot of that is
14:07
people only talk about their their wins, you know?
14:10
But yeah, definitely, I agree, no parlays, no teasers.
14:14
It's tough enough to win one game, you know, like I said,
14:17
making it harder. So now you've got your, you've
14:21
got your bankroll set aside, you know how much you're betting the
14:24
game, you know what you're not, what types of bet you're not
14:26
doing. We also recommend use multiple
14:30
sports book accounts. I mean, we're using three us for
14:34
the upcoming season here, mainly 2, but I mean, we do have a lot
14:38
of our futures bets at a third one.
14:40
Just simple reason being, you want to give yourself the best
14:43
chance to win, you know? And if you lose, you want to pay
14:46
as little juice as possible. So not every sports books got
14:51
plus seven at -110. I mean, if you want a favorite,
14:54
that line is 7. Another sports book could have
14:56
it at six and a half. Obviously you're going to play
14:58
that one. So you want to give yourself
15:00
options. You want to give yourself the
15:02
best chance to win. Take your bankroll, split it two
15:05
or three ways, whatever. But just have it spread out and
15:08
then just bet with whichever one gives you the best number for
15:10
the game that you're looking at. If you haven't got a sports book
15:14
account yet or sports bettings new to your state, all the big
15:17
apps they offer. Tons of free bets, rewards,
15:20
points, bonuses. There's enough articles there to
15:24
to give you pros and cons of everyone, So we're not going to
15:26
do that here. Plus, and we're assuming 99%,
15:29
you've already got your your sports book apps loaded and
15:31
ready to go. But have at least two, maybe 3-4
15:35
or more, becomes kind of monotonous, you know?
15:37
You'll see the three of them will have the same line, 1
15:39
won't. There's no sense spreading your
15:41
money that thin. Like I said, two or three should
15:44
be a good number. I agree.
15:46
Yeah, three would be good. Yeah.
15:50
Three, yeah. Once you get up to four and
15:51
five, then you're like, well, what was the line here?
15:53
Then you forget. Then you have to go back, and
15:55
you're going back and forth between between apps and all
15:58
that. If you keep, I think 3 is a
16:00
perfect #5 1/2 here, 5 1/2 here, 5 here, okay.
16:04
But over there. So my last one here would be I
16:10
see this all the time, whether you're at a casino or a poker
16:13
room, horse track, don't chase. There's always going to be games
16:19
next week you know you have a bad week.
16:20
Don't let it shake you. Don't be like, well, I gotta,
16:23
you know, I lost my first three bets here, so I got to put
16:26
$300.00 on the Hawaii game. I got to stay up till 3:00 AM,
16:29
sweating Hawaii game, you know, don't worry.
16:32
You see this all the time. Like people keep buying in and
16:34
buying in at the at the blackjack table.
16:37
You know, they got, you know, they got to catch the the money.
16:39
The table's going to be there tomorrow.
16:41
The poke room is going to be open tomorrow.
16:43
The racetrack will be open tomorrow.
16:44
There's always going to be another game to bet on.
16:47
Wait till next week. There's more games next week.
16:49
You know if you're running bad, you'd be running better next
16:52
week. Don't chase.
16:53
So that just makes everything compound.
16:56
And you're not really thinking with your head, You're kind of
16:58
thinking with your heart a little bit, maybe.
17:00
So yeah, don't chase your losses.
17:03
That's my last one. Yeah, no, I agree totally.
17:06
That's just a bad and we're all guilty of it.
17:09
But I mean, yeah, I've done it. If doing this was easy.
17:15
You know, then everybody would be doing it and Vegas would look
17:18
like the the village where I live, you know, just nothing
17:20
exciting going on. But that's not the case.
17:24
You're not going to win every week.
17:25
I mean, as much as we would love to, as much as we would love to
17:28
sit here and say yeah. We're going to give you winning
17:30
weeks, every single week of the college football season.
17:32
We're not. I'm.
17:33
I wish we could, but we're not. But at the same time, you also
17:37
have to remember you're not going to lose every week either.
17:39
So if you have a bad week, it's normal.
17:42
Everybody does it. Don't let it bother you cuz
17:45
you've got that one to 5% of your bank on each bet.
17:47
You're not losing a ton anyway, so bounce back next week.
17:51
Losing streaks do not last forever.
17:53
Do not worry about it. Preach brother Darren.
17:59
And the last one that I have is track your bets.
18:04
In the old days, you could use a notebook and a pen and just
18:08
write down what you bet on, what spread was, how much you bet,
18:11
how much you won or lost. There are multiple apps out
18:14
there that will literally sync to whatever sports book you're
18:18
using and actually track them for you.
18:22
The reason why this helps your bankroll is over time, you'll
18:27
see what you're good at and you'll see what you suck at.
18:31
There's a reason Tim and I only talk about college football.
18:34
We kind of suck at other things. Definitely hockey.
18:39
I can't pick a winner in hockey. That's made my life you.
18:41
Came up to me and said, hey, who's winning this NBA game
18:43
tonight? You're going to lose because I
18:46
don't know anything about it. But what I did, do, you know, I
18:50
was at that point where, well, college football's over.
18:53
Guess I'll bet on, you know, basketball.
18:55
Oh, it's March Madness. Guess I'll fill out a bracket.
18:58
Oh, baseball season. Yeah.
18:59
No, I learned over the years that there are some sports I
19:04
should not be betting. And I won't be betting.
19:06
And that's how that helps your bankroll because you're not
19:08
losing at things you know you're not good at.
19:10
So it's basically saving you money as opposed to adding.
19:13
But. Yeah, track them.
19:16
You'll know what kind of bet you're good at.
19:17
Maybe you're just a single game pick the side.
19:19
Maybe you're better at totals. You know how you'll find out.
19:22
Track them for the course of the season or two.
19:24
Then when you when you reload for next season, boom.
19:27
I'm not betting any totals because I went 10 and 21 in the
19:32
31 totals bets I made. So definitely track your bets
19:36
once you sign in and see, a lot of them are free.
19:38
So I mean, all you really have to do is just sync them to your
19:41
sports book once you enter that bet in the sports book.
19:44
And once you open the app within a second, your bet is already
19:47
there and it's gonna track for you.
19:49
So follow that along. You can put a date range in,
19:53
say, August 26th to whenever the national championship is mid
19:56
January and you'll know then. Hey, how did I do in college
19:59
football this year? So great way to save yourself
20:02
from losing some bets, so I definitely recommend that.
20:05
One, save yourself a lot of headaches as well.
20:07
I mean, yes, it's right there, you see?
20:09
Well, I'm really bad at this. Okay.
20:11
I'm not gonna do that. Then that's.
20:13
Yeah. And that's the one.
20:13
Everybody thinks they're so good at the NFL because I watched the
20:17
NFL. Yeah, well so do I I I don't
20:20
remember the last winning year I had in the NFL.
20:24
The lines are so sharp that it's it's really tough to beat the
20:27
NFL over the course of a full season.
20:30
So and if you don't believe me, track yourself in the NFL this
20:33
year, See how you do. I'd be willing to bet that more
20:36
than half of you will not or not as good at the NFL as you think
20:40
you are. But track your bets.
20:42
Like I said, it's a great way to save you money because you can
20:45
focus in on what you're good at and that's definitely gonna help
20:48
you in the. Long run, absolutely.
20:52
Well Darren, this one is this episode is coming to an end.
20:56
It's a little shorter but our next episode we're talking
21:01
games, baby. Finally it's time.
21:04
Finally get Bruce Buffer in here.
21:07
It's time. I'm so ready.
21:10
I have already made notes for all seven games on Week 0.
21:16
So yeah, that's how excited I am.
21:17
I actually did that prep before I did the prep for this show.
21:21
Getting my shoulder, my elbow warmed up for the tomahawk chop.
21:24
Week one against LSU. Getting ready to go games gonna
21:27
be huge. There's a couple games coming up
21:29
in that. So yeah, So for that next show
21:31
that Tim's talking about in addition to and, we're gonna
21:34
base the games that we cover kind of dependent on the
21:37
schedule. We don't wanna have these shows
21:40
be, you know, 60 minutes, you know, going over 30 or 40 games
21:44
every weekend. But what we're going to do,
21:47
since there's only seven for technically week zero, week one
21:51
actually starts Thursday and Friday.
21:53
There are some games, so we're not covering anything FCS.
21:58
So if there's any game involving an FCS team, whether it's
22:01
against another FCS or an FBS, we're not covering it.
22:04
I mean, there's just 133 teams is enough to keep track of and
22:09
those point spreads are so ridiculous.
22:11
You never know is is the FBS team going to just roll?
22:13
Are they still working on things?
22:16
If anything, if you really had to bet that bet, the FBS team
22:19
total in the first half because probably by the 3rd core they're
22:22
gonna be up 40 points and they're putting in all their
22:24
backups who won't score nearly as much.
22:26
But anyway, So yeah, it's gonna be FBS versus FBS only.
22:31
Looking at August 26th, August 31st, and September 1st, there's
22:36
15 games total to look at initially.
22:40
It kind of looks like we might have 3 plays to release for you
22:43
guys if you tune in in a couple weeks.
22:45
But still working on that. Again, those QB battles I
22:48
mentioned earlier, some of those need to shake out before we make
22:50
any final decisions. But yeah man, I cannot wait to
22:54
record the next one before we finally get to talk about some
22:57
games. So put a bow on this one.
22:59
So if anyone out there knows Hunter deckers, have them e-mail
23:02
us at cfpdudes@yahoo.com. Shout out to Denmark Guy one
23:06
more time. Hey, if he's listening, I hope
23:09
he is. Get us on.
23:11
Let's make something big here. He gets us 500 Denmark
23:16
listeners. We'll go out there and we'll fly
23:18
to Copenhagen. Dude, if he gets us 3 Denmark
23:20
listeners, I would consider flying out to Copenhagen.
23:23
Oh, no. I'm like, after what we went
23:25
through last week, I'm not getting well.
23:27
You're probably more free flight.
23:32
All right guys, we're going to wrap this episode up.
23:34
Shout out to denmarkfootballdudes.com.
23:37
cfbdudes@yahoo.com. This has been targeting Winners
23:41
Episode 4. See you next time we get ready
23:44
to talk for Week 1. We'll see you later.